Betting MLB run line

Quote: AxelWolf

How many times have you been back roomed, 86ed or beaten?

Quote: MrGoldenSun

I haven't read the last article yet, but I am excited to. I'm surprised how people obsess about small differences in house edge without ever considering decisions per hour. Part of the reason I always advocate for pai gow poker is that it's slow, so it's more favorable on a per-hour basis than it is on a per-hand basis.

I also think people should consider variance more, although that is more a personal choice since some want high variance and some want low.

Quote: Mission146

I also agree with the second thing you said for #3, personally, if I had top say anything at all, I'd want that player to feel welcomed at the table rather than ostracized with sarcasm.

Quote: MrGoldenSun

Definitely. What's the point of comments like that? Very insecure, unnecessary, and rude. The conventional poker wisdom, of course, is "be nice to the sucker." Personally, I think even that is too cynical. I think it should just be "be nice to everyone." :)

Quote: AxelWolf

I think the problem is that people get angry when a bad player makes a bad play and then they get lucky, sometimes good players start ragging on them calling them donkeys meanwhile making them feel uncomfortable.

Quote: Mission146

First we will look at a unique Craps Promotion as posted by 100x Odds:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/unusual-craps-promotions/

Quote: Mission146

First of all, here is an Article about the BetSoft Slots at Bovada with the (perhaps intentional, perhaps not) software problem that results in Jackpots being impossible to hit:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/when-the-betting-gets-hard/

I also wrote a lengthier Editorial about that at LatestCasinoBonuses.com

Hollywood Casino in Columbus, Ohio and their PITA Promotion:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/promotions-to-avoid/

And, my report on the strike at Trump Taj Mahal, also with a lengthier piece on LCB:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/crossing-the-line/

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

You could improve your otherwise excellent writing by getting rid of this glitch.

Quote: odiousgambit

. But Mission's articles are really bad, now that you mention it!

Quote: lilredrooster

I enjoyed and found useful your article about the 2 point conversion. Thank you for that. I am interested in the question of comparing the value or lack of value in betting the run line in baseball versus betting the more common money line. And also the various angles on betting the run line when you bet on or against the home team favorite who will not bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are ahead by one run. And if the game is tied going into the bottom of the 9th the home team must hit a home run with a man or men on base for the home team favorite to win on the run line. I've never seen an analysis of this. Of course, since betting on baseball is nowhere near as popular as betting on the NFL gambling writers don't generally pay much attention to it. I would speculate that the run line might have excellent value compared to the money line in certain situations.

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Of course, this depends on the dubious premise that the casino isn't aware of this factor and doesn't set the prices (run lines are a form of money line) accordingly. What we need is historical data on how a bettor would have done taking the money line both for and against the home favorite over a significant period, say, all of last year. My wild guess is that a given sports book will have done just such a calculation (among others) and adjusted for any weaknesses in the run line.

Another possibility is that betting either for or against a home favorite with the run line is a better bet than simply taking a side, but doing so still results in a house advantage. The vig embedded in run lines is quite often much higher than the standard dime line on sides; you need a lot to overcome it, and it's doubtful that any simplistic strategy can do so.