ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 4th, 2022 at 2:54:21 PM permalink
49ers' Game:
If Jimmy G was out at the start of the game, I have his replacement @ 3.5 to 4 pts worse (compared to whatever you think was the "fair spread" before the game).

Great 11 play / 76 yard TD drive by Purdy to finish off the half (I am not watching it, but looking at the scores on the ESPN site).

Thinking about taking the "live under" on the 49ers', and either get:
25.5 @ +140 or
26.5 @ +110

Update: Too late the 2nd half has started after writing this post.

----
Chiefs' Game::
Even though 4th and 1 at the 4 yard line the majority of the time is the correct play, I would personally take whatever pts I could get against the Chiefs (especially near the end of the 1st half, and also because it would have made it a 7 pt margin, if the FG was successful).

Just before kickoff, I was talking to someone I trust to be a better judge/handicapper than me, and he said to take the Bengals' +2.5 @ 1.92, so I had a $4k bet on them (fingers' crossed***).

*** (update, ~3pm): Still plenty of game to go, but not looking as confident now after looking at were the Chiefs have the ball,
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 4th, 2022 at 4:47:22 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip) ...someone I trust to be a better judge/handicapper than me,... (snip)
link to original post


Same person told me I should switch### positions and look at the Cowboys' , so I had $2000 on them -10.5 @ $2.05*** .

***: I found out why I can get such good odds - and it is because "for the Marquee games, this 'book is offering no juice^^^ for the entire season, ATS".

^^^: At the time of my bet they had it, $1.95 - Colts / $2.05 -Cowboys', ATS (so, almost " no juice").
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 5th, 2022 at 12:34:57 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)***: I found out why I can get such good odds - and it is because "for the Marquee games, this 'book is offering no juice^^^ for the entire season, ATS". (snip)
link to original post


Loaded up on the Saints' game, because I like the Saints' (a little bit) and because it is another "Marquee game".

Even though I "tied up $30k in funds", I can either win $1,950 or lose $1,500 (effectively I am on the Bucs' -3.5 @ $2.30*** )
***: ATS, the best odds I could get was $1.90 on the Saints' and $2.13 on the Bucs' (the Bucs' were with the special "Marquee odds").

I also had $1.8k on the Saints'-6.5 @ $5.5 ("alt spread") and below is the summary of what I can win / lose for this game:

Bucs' win by 4 (or more): +$150 ,
Saints win by between 6 to -3: -$3.3k
Saints win by 7 (or more): +$6.6k

----
Comments:
I am having a "positive run" overall, but all my bets on "alt spreads" have lost this week.

----
Update (~1345, Pac time);
The special "Marquee odds" have changed and are now $2 / $2 (at the +3.5 /-3.5 spread).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 5, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 5th, 2022 at 12:42:28 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Thinking about taking the "live under" on the 49ers', and either get:
25.5 @ +140 or
26.5 @ +110

Update: Too late the 2nd half has started after writing this post.
(snip)
link to original post


Glad I didn't drive to the "betting shop", as I probably would have lost up to $1k since that is usually the max I bet on "live betting" (when I am not "hedging my bets").
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
December 5th, 2022 at 5:16:08 PM permalink
Hit Brazil ML
Over 3.5 goals total
South Korea to score
Over 8.5 corners.

Nice parlay, with boosted odds of course!

Tonight I have TB, either ML, -3, or -3.5.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 7th, 2022 at 12:22:49 AM permalink
Feeling very tired this week so I don't plan on doing any "graded bets" atm, but I did have the following below (since one is a bonus and the other is "a bad line compared to the public line", IMO):
$250 (bonus bet) on the Texans +3.5 @ +500
Same game double / parlay: "Cowboys*** -14.5 x Under 46.5" @ +270

***: I normally try to fade a team after a "big win ATS", but I am probably not doing any work this week, so instead I am just using the public odds from Pinnacle and Vegas Insider as a guide (for any potential bets).

-----
"Alternate Spreads":
I know all of my bets on these have lost recently, but I am interested in the the following teams, and "alt spreads/totals" this week:
Bucs: -2.5 @ +210, -3.5 @ +310, Under 27.5 @ +345 and Under 26.5 @ +410

Cards: -6.5 @ +280

Vikings^^^: -7.5 @ +375 or -8.5 @ +425

^^^: After "talking smack" about the Vikings in one of my earlier posts, "wanting to bet on the Vikings' " may seem strange, but using Pinnacle as a guide there is currently a 14%+ estimated EV at the above odds.

Also, I probably won't bet on them, but here are are some more interesting "alt spreads" below:

Bengals are -263 ML and are also -263 @ +1.5
Eagles are -300 ML and are also -300 @ +1.5
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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December 7th, 2022 at 4:06:45 AM permalink
I watched paint dry, I mean the Morocco/ Spain soccer game. Morocco played great defense for 120 minutes. Spain tried 100 passes before attempting a risky one.
But I made $$. Had draw (after 90 minutes) at 2.5-1. Then after 95 ish minutes added ‘less than .5 goals for Spain’ only needing to lay 2-1. Then after 105 minutes got ‘’game ends 0-0” and only had to lay 2-1.
Morocco had one good scoring chance, Spain zero.

I continue to do well on my college bball parlays. Hit 6 teamer
last night but taking extra points to get even shorter odds. Then each leg gets an additional ‘boost’. Only ended up getting 7-1 but cruised through.

Looks like I will make ‘gold’ on DraftKings. I hope somehow that makes me a ‘VIP’ again. The VIP offers were highly +EV.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
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December 7th, 2022 at 10:07:30 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(lots of snips for relevance)
-----
"Alternate Spreads":

Vikings^^^: -7.5 @ +375 or -8.5 @ +425

link to original post


Here are the lines / totals I have taken so far:

Vikings' : -7.5, and -8.5 @ the above odds (half of my total bet on this game, at both of these spreads).

Raiders' Game: Raiders -6.5 @ +100, Raiders' -13.5 @ +230, and over 57.5 @ +550 (5/12, 1/4, and 1/3 of my total bet on this game, respectively).
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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December 8th, 2022 at 4:35:53 AM permalink
Does anyone know what percentage of NHL goals in regulation are power play goals as opposed to full strength goals? I have a theory that I am working on but the stats I see include overtime.
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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  • Posts: 9575
December 8th, 2022 at 5:50:57 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Does anyone know what percentage of NHL goals in regulation are power play goals as opposed to full strength goals? I have a theory that I am working on but the stats I see include overtime.
link to original post



I’ve watched hockey my entire life. I’ll guess 30% are power play, 68% full strength, 2% short handed. I can’t wait until you actually find out!

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