Sports betting chatter

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Does anyone know what percentage of NHL goals in regulation are power play goals as opposed to full strength goals? I have a theory that I am working on but the stats I see include overtime.
link to original post

I’ve watched hockey my entire life. I’ll guess 30% are power play, 68% full strength, 2% short handed. I can’t wait until you actually find out!
link to original post

The information in the links below, show P-P*** and short-handed^^^ figures:

***: Scroll to about 1/3 of the way down the page, in the first link.

^^^: "..Teams would expect to score a SH goal just once every 104.1 minutes spent playing short-handed..." (I know this wasn't asked, but I thought it was interesting, as well).

power-play-1

power-play-and-short-handed-2

I just had my first real big in game advantage by watching game live. Sabres and Penguins were tied with a few seconds to go when Sabre genius Jeff Skinner cross checked a Penguin in the face. He was assessed a 5 minute penalty which would give the Penguins a 4-3 man advantage essentially until they scored or overtime ended. 5 minutes of 4-3 man advantage probably results in a goal 75% of the time.
I looked at the odds on Penguins winning and it was only -110!
I’m embarrassed to say how little I bet on the Penguins ($33) but I never thought the bet would actually go through. When it did I immediately tried again but no more bets were being accepted.

I’m guessing they have software that shuts betting down when enough people just hammer one side of the line.

Quote: FinsRule

I’m guessing they have software that shuts betting down when enough people just hammer one side of the line.
link to original post

That, and the odds do change once the penalty is ‘entered’ into their system. I have no idea how much of the change in odds is computer (algorithm?) generated versus human generated?

Second game last night. Down to the wire Bucks/Mavs. Giannis fouls out with 2 + minutes remaining so I immediately try for bet on Mavs. The score alone would have it around even money. But (luckily!) it didn’t let me get the bet in on the Mavs. It ‘thought’ for a few seconds and came back with ‘the odds have changed’.

I ‘think’ the foul out may be figured into the algorithm but an injury effect has to be human entered.

If anyone has access to an actual Sportsbook manager the answers would interest me…..

I’m using the space below to detail all my football bets that are in the money at halftime.




That didn’t take long.

Because of bad/slow lines, I had a live bet on the Cowboys' $1000 @ $3.00*** and then at pretty much the same time $1800 @ $1.68 on the Texans' (so lock in about $200 profit).

***: I didn't think I would be doing this for the Cowboys' game live (because "almost no one would expect them to have to do a 2-minute drill , as they are behind by 3 against this opponent..." )

----
Update:

I know the game isn't over, but too bad I probably won't win my "bonus bet of $250 on the Texans @ +3.5" (as they are down by 4 with 40 seconds left).

Because it is a "Marquee Game ", I managed to have the following:

$5k on the Chargers` +3.5 @ +100***, and
$5k on the Dolphins' -3.5 @ +107^^^

***: This was @ a "slightly stale" line.

^^^: This was @ the special "Marquee odds, no vig" market.

-----
Extra Info:
If you are following my "graded bets thread", then I still want the Chargers' to win {or beat the spread}, because if the Dolphins' win { beat the spread}, it will only reduce my loss on the game by $350.


-----
Update (16:55, Pac Time):
Miami by exactly 3 would be a nice bonus, as I just had:
$2k on the Dolphins' -3 @ $1.93, and
another $2k on the Chargers' +3.5 @ $1.93

Also, I made some minor changes to the wording to my original post (see "strike-through and / or words in { } next to it ", above).

Pats' vs Cards' Game / Bets:

I invested / "tied up" $9,000 in this game at "alternatative odds" (see break-down below):

'Book A (5.5): Pats' + 5.5 @ $1.42 (~ -238) / I lose 320 if I beat this spread.
'Book B (5.5): Cards' -5.5 @ $3.70 (+270) / I win 1,400 ...

'Book A (6.5): Pats' + 6.5 @ $1.35 (~ -286) I lose 250 ...
'Book B (6.5): Cards' -6.5 @ $4.25 (+325) I win 1,500 ...

Effectively, I received the odds below (in terms of "max win to max loss"):

$320 on the Cards' -5.5 @ $5.375 (+437.5)
$250 on the Cards' -6.5 @ $7.0 (+600)

----
Comments:

I was going to have a "more normal" bet on the Pats', because I originally had them "x grade ", but supposedly the "smart money^^^ " is coming for the Cards' (?)

^^^: I think this is mainly because the Cards' are coming off a bye week, and also the Pats' are a "bit average", ATM (?)

I think I got some "good value" for the Ravens' / Browns' game coming up this week (below is a list of possible results):

Win 2,450 if the Ravens' win by 6 (or more)
Win 1,300 if the Ravens' win by 4 or 5,
Win 3,500 if the Ravens' win by exactly 3
Lose 850 for all other results

Below were the relevant "alt odds":

Browns' +3.5 @ -250 / Ravens' -3.5 @ +275
Browns' +5.5 @ about -333 / Ravens' -5.5 @ +370 (was +375, but by the time I worked out all of my bets' for this game, it changed).
Ravens' -2.5 @ +190

So as usual I have a bunch of bets on France Morocco. In summary, I make money unless there are exactly 8 corner kicks. 30 minutes into the game there were ZERO. By halftime 4…