SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 24th, 2022 at 11:57:45 AM permalink
New thread so I don’t keep hijacking all the other threads….

BetMGM actually had a money line on Georgia -Kent State. I bet $1000 to win $10. Georgia is up TEN in the 4th quarter, and it could have been just EIGHT! They were 44.5 point favorites…. Gulp….

So I tried to find the correlated parlays ksdjdj has been touting, but either the parlay was disallowed, or instead of being +260 or so they were only +170 or so!

But…. I was able to parlay the underdog (Kent State) +44.5 and Over 61.5 and got a whopping +575!!! It may not go over but it’s close now. That must have been +EV.
DRich
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ksdjdj
September 24th, 2022 at 12:17:20 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


But…. I was able to parlay the underdog (Kent State) +44.5 and Over 61.5 and got a whopping +575!!! It may not go over but it’s close now. That must have been +EV.



Sorry, you missed it by this "" much.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 24th, 2022 at 12:33:36 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


But…. I was able to parlay the underdog (Kent State) +44.5 and Over 61.5 and got a whopping +575!!! It may not go over but it’s close now. That must have been +EV.



Sorry, you missed it by this "" much.
link to original post

. Last night I missed a pretty big parlay when my team missed XP (meaningless for the game result) at the end of the game.

FanDuel gave everyone a free bet who lost their ‘special parlay boost’ which included Steelers plus 7.5. Best Offer of the day was BetRivers. Deposit $100 and get a free $100 bet.
I won my $10 on Georgia but probably not my best idea….
ksdjdj
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September 24th, 2022 at 12:47:36 PM permalink
I would have probably had that bet too, if I could get on.

Assuming 44.5 and 61.5 was "the 50/50 line", then:

fav ' x under = ~11.91%
fav ' x over = ~ 32.85%
'dog x under = ~ 38.09%
'dog x over = ~ 17.15%

'dog x over = ~17.15% x $6.75 (+575) = ~115.74% *** RTP = +15.74% EV

***: Used the "non-rounded" figures to get this estimated RTP.

Note: I normally don't bet on the " 'dog x over", or "fav' x under", unless I am offsetting (but it doesn't change the fact that I think this was a "good bet").

----
"All games, I could have bet on":

Unlucky^^^ for me, the withdrawal I was waiting on since Tuesday didn't arrive, so I couldn't take the correlated parlays/doubles.

^^^: I haven't checked results for the other games yet, but below were the "best ones" that I would have bet on if I could.

Nevada +24.5 / Under 46.5 @ +260
Air Force -24.5 / Over 46.5 @ +260

Bowling Green +31.5 / Under 52.5 @ +250
Mississippi State -31.5 / Over 52.5 @ +260

and/or this 1st half double:
Bowling Green +19.5 / Under 28.5 @ +220
Mississippi State -19.5 / Over 28.5 @ +280

Kent State +45.5 / Under 62.5 @ +235
Georgia -45.5 / Over 62.5 @ +280

... 1st Half:
Kent State +29.5 / Under 35.5 +205
Georgia -29.5 / Over 35.5 +310

... 1st Half:
Florida International +20.5 / Under 36.5 @ +250
Western Kentucky -20.5 / Over 36.5 @ +250

... 1st Half:
Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Vanderbilt +40.5 / Under 59.5 @ +250
Alabama -40.5 / Over 59.5 @ +260

... 1st Half:
Vanderbilt +25.5 / Under 34.5 @ +230
Alabama -25.5 / Over 34.5 @ +270

Connecticut +38.5 / Under 49.5 @ +245
NC State -38.5 / Over 49.5 @ +270
Connecticut +38.5 / Over 49.5 @ +600

... 1st Half:
Connecticut +24.5 / Under 28.5 @ +195
NC State -24.5 / Over 28.5 @ +325

and likely any other games that had a 50%+ "line / total ".

-----
Other :

In the Kent State / Georgia game, lucky for me the first score was a TD (I think only 6 of the 13 scores were a TD).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 24, 2022
ksdjdj
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September 24th, 2022 at 2:50:15 PM permalink
Since I didn't want all the work I did this week to "go to waste", I had a combined total of $200 on all these "great EV, but unlikely to win bets" below:

Note 1: They are all for the 1st quarter "line x totals".
Note 2: If any win, I should get about a $40k return, on average.
Note 3: All odds are decimal odds

----
1)
Akron +7.5 / Under 13.5
Kentucky -7.5 / Over 11.5
Vanderbilt +11.5 / Under 14.5
Connecticut +9.5 / Under 10.5
LSU -7.5 / Over 10.5

Odds: ~ $616

----
2)
Akron +7.5 / Under 13.5
Kentucky -7.5 / Over 11.5
Vanderbilt +11.5 / Under 14.5
NC State -9.5 / Over 10.5
LSU -7.5 / Over 10.5

Odds: ~ $873

----
3)
Akron +7.5 / Under 13.5
Kentucky -7.5 / Over 11.5
Alabama -11.5 / Over 14.5
Connecticut +9.5 / Under 10.5
LSU -7.5 / Over 10.5

Odds: ~ $782

----
4)
Akron +7.5 / Under 13.5
Kentucky -7.5 / Over 11.5
Alabama -11.5 / Over 14.5
NC State -9.5 / Over 10.5
LSU -7.5 / Over 10.5

Odds: ~ $1108
DRich
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September 24th, 2022 at 3:37:37 PM permalink
Good luck with your bets. I couldn't imagine having any faith in Akron. I didn't expect them to win a game this year. I also like Hugh Freeze the head coach at Liberty. Hopefully the Zips can keep it close for one quarter.

CONGRATS: You got the Akron game.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 3:45:20 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Good luck with your bets. I couldn't imagine having any faith in Akron. I didn't expect them to win a game this year. I also like Hugh Freeze the head coach at Liberty. Hopefully the Zips can keep it close for one quarter.

CONGRATS: You got the Akron game.
link to original post


If i had time, I would have put in "Liberty x Over" for the first quarter, too.
But, I though I wouldn't have enough time to get all of them on (I only ended up having 5 minutes to spare, for the above bets anyway).

----
Update (~1615, Pac Time):
It looks likely that my "Kentucky,,," part of the bet is going to be a loser (but there is still 9 minutes to go).

----
Update 2 (~1635, Pac Time):
All bets have lost now (because "Kentucky x Over in the 1st Quarter" lost)
I still would have targeted the same options^^^, if I was given a similar choice***
^^^: With more funds available, I would have just bet on individual games, though.
***:: With more time, I probably would have tried to bet the "opposites" .

Also, the best ones "on paper" this week were probably:
1st Quarter:
NC State -9.5 / Over 10.5 @ $4.25 (+325)
Connecticut +9.5 / Under 10.5 @ $3 (+200)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 24, 2022
Ace2
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September 24th, 2022 at 3:48:38 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Is that a WNBA game ?
It’s all about making that GTA
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 4:03:08 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj


Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Is that a WNBA game ?
link to original post


First half NCAAF.
DRich
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September 24th, 2022 at 4:36:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj


Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Is that a WNBA game ?
link to original post



Come on Ace, the WNBA season wrapped up last week.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 4:40:49 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj


Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Is that a WNBA game ?
link to original post



Come on Ace, the WNBA season wrapped up last week.
link to original post


My sarcasm / joke detector is in the shop. But I should have at least looked that up (about the WNBA season being over).
ksdjdj
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September 24th, 2022 at 6:37:08 PM permalink
Edit (about 1945, Pac Time, see strike-through, just below): Reason: Only 6/9 games would have had a + return (in my original working out, I used 7/9).

I just had a look and I would have roughly up to +35% 17% ROI today, if I had all my bets the "normal way, for me*** " .

***: Or my next likely ROI would have been about 19.5%, if I decided to just bet all available funds on the best odds for the NC State / Connecticut game (if I did it with "hedging bets### ").

###: See link >>> "offsetting_hedging"

if you don't really know what I mean by this.

Quote: SOOPOO


(snip)
BetMGM actually had a money line on Georgia -Kent State. I bet $1000 to win $10. Georgia is up TEN in the 4th quarter, and it could have been just EIGHT! They were 44.5 point favorites…. (snip)
link to original post


I would have taken $1.01 (-10,000) too.
The 'books I bet with generally stop offering ML options for the Fav' , when the spread is somewhere between 30 to 38.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 24, 2022
ksdjdj
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September 24th, 2022 at 7:58:17 PM permalink
I didn't expect it to work, but for the BYU vs Wyoming game I wanted to see if I could get: the 1st Quarter, into 1st Half, and / or Game..

Because it wasn't allowed, I hope my HUGE $20 bet on Wyoming +21.5 / Under 50.5 @ +260 gets up ( since I have to turnover my deposit at least once, before I can withdraw) .
lilredrooster
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Mission146
September 25th, 2022 at 5:05:06 AM permalink
_____________


Chiefs - moneyline -244 over Colts - a win gets 41% of the wager as profit

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
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September 25th, 2022 at 9:18:19 AM permalink
Possibly unprecedented? ALL 4 projected secondary starters (White, Jackson, Poyer, Hyde) out! Two major defensive linemen (Phillips, Oliver) out!

Not as newsworthy, but starting center (Morse) out!

Miami threw 6 TD passes last week! And now they face essentially the Bills second unit.

I am not confident in my Bills-4.5 bet…..
I am confident in my Bills over 52 bet…..

As a reminder, my selections as above tend to hit nearly 48% of the time….
odiousgambit
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September 25th, 2022 at 2:37:13 PM permalink
I'd be having a good day so far except for Kansas City not performing... not sure what's wrong there
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ksdjdj
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:19:47 PM permalink
Go Jags.
I just need another 4+ points from the Jags so I can stop sweeting on that bet***.

***: Not a good deal compared to a lot of others mentioned on this site, but I get paid straight away on ML bets as soon as the team I back is up by 17^^^ or more.

^^^: From 2014 to 2021, teams have only lost about 1/55, when leading by 17 or more.

Also, I took the "worst price available to me" on them, when they were +166 (if I had waited 20 minutes, I could have received +220).

----
update (after Jags up by 31-10):
Great.
Going by the live odds with one 'book, the chance of the Jags losing now is somewhere between ~1/19 and ~1/10 (wishful thinking, but It would be great if the Chargers come back and win by 3).

----
Update 2 (last one for this game, I promise):
Going by the live odds with one 'book, the chance of the Jags losing now is somewhere between ~1/51 and ~1/21...
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 25, 2022
DRich
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ksdjdj
September 25th, 2022 at 3:28:50 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Go Jags.
I just need another 4+ points from the Jags so I can stop sweeting on that bet***.

***: Not a good deal compared to a lot of others mentioned on this site, but I get paid straight away on ML bets as soon as the team I back is up by 17^^^ or more.

^^^: From 2014 to 2021, teams have only lost about 1/55, when leading by 17 or more.

Also, I took the "worst price available to me" on them, when they were +166 (if I had waited 20 minutes, I could have received +220).
link to original post



Congrats, the Jags are crushing.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:47:50 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
...so I can stop sweeting... (snip)
link to original post


(see bold)
I think most people know what I meant by that (at least it was the correct spelling of the wrong word^^^, lol).

^^^: Wasn't the first time this has happened to me, and probably won't be the last, either.
ksdjdj
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September 25th, 2022 at 4:11:41 PM permalink
I thought Denver was "good value", so I had the ML @ +105, to win 4200.
SOOPOO
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September 25th, 2022 at 4:54:39 PM permalink
More tales of woe! I had boosted 3 leg soccer parlay, all teams have to win, a tie is a loss….. First two won yesterday…. need Latvia to beat ANDORRA! I think Andorra has like 70 people living there….. Andorra scores goal to tie with two minutes to go….

Had 13-1 on Thomas being top point scorer at the Predidents Cup. It was between him and Jordan Spieth. Both had 4 wins before last match today. Around halfway through Thomas was up two holes in his match, Spieth down two holes. You don’t have to look it up to know what happened.

On the bright side I got that $100 free bet from BetRivers. Had Bears today to win, Dodgers today to win. Chiefs over Bucs next week! So I’m alive at $400 if the Chiefs win. I’ll probably hedge a little…..
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 26th, 2022 at 9:07:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

More tales of woe! I had boosted 3 leg soccer parlay, all teams have to win, a tie is a loss….. First two won yesterday…. need Latvia to beat ANDORRA! I think Andorra has like 70 people living there….. Andorra scores goal to tie with two minutes to go….

Had 13-1 on Thomas being top point scorer at the Predidents Cup. It was between him and Jordan Spieth. Both had 4 wins before last match today. Around halfway through Thomas was up two holes in his match, Spieth down two holes. You don’t have to look it up to know what happened.

On the bright side I got that $100 free bet from BetRivers. Had Bears today to win, Dodgers today to win. Chiefs over Bucs next week! So I’m alive at $400 if the Chiefs win. I’ll probably hedge a little…..
link to original post



Hedging done. I 'needed' to make a $100 bet on another website to gain a bonus, so I took the Bucs +3. Also 'needed' to make a $10 bet on a third one, and took Bucs money line. And a 3rd bet for $20 on Bucs money line.

Sooooo. Bucs win outright.... around +$140.
Tie- around +$260
Chiefs win by 1 or 2 around +$460
Chiefs win by 3 around +$370
Chiefs win by over 3 around +$270

So +Ev near $220? Around what I lost yesterday on my other +EV bets.....
DRich
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September 26th, 2022 at 9:19:08 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I thought Denver was "good value", so I had the ML @ +105, to win 4200.
link to original post



How many of us fell asleep during the SF vs DEN game? I did.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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ksdjdj
September 26th, 2022 at 9:32:48 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

I thought Denver was "good value", so I had the ML @ +105, to win 4200.
link to original post



How many of us fell asleep during the SF vs DEN game? I did.
link to original post



Two below average teams with below average QBs playing a very below average game. Kittle post injury doesn't look like a top level TE. Garoppolo is not a top 20 QB. Wilson is not a top 15 QB. I'll bet Deebo is unhappy he is still there......


NFC East is 7-3!
AFC West is 5-7!

All the talk pre season was how dominant the AFC West was going to be, and how weak the NFC East was going to be...
ksdjdj
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September 26th, 2022 at 2:48:11 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

I thought Denver was "good value", so I had the ML @ +105, to win 4200.
link to original post



How many of us fell asleep during the SF vs DEN game? I did.
link to original post


I would have stopped watching the game, if not for the above bet.

Also, I thought during the game that the defense and/or special teams should come out and play all sides of the ball.

Even though It didn't pan out, watching the game gave me an idea to see if I could bet on something like "Over on Punts^^^ x Under on Total" .

^^^: I didn't count it, but maybe there were more punts than points scored (?)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 26, 2022
ksdjdj
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September 26th, 2022 at 4:50:50 PM permalink
I don't have a personal opinion on tonight's Cowboys @ Giants game, but I did have 1200 @ +300^^^ on the Cowboys (-7 pts)

^^^: Using the odds with Pinnacle and other sites as a guide, I would estimate the EV is somewhere between 10% and 20% (I used 10% for betting purposes).

Quote: SOOPOO

(snip)
But…. I was able to parlay the underdog (Kent State) +44.5 and Over 61.5 and got a whopping +575!!! It may not go over but it’s close now. That must have been +EV.
link to original post



Quote: ksdjdj

I would have probably had that bet too, if I could get on.

Assuming 44.5 and 61.5 was "the 50/50 line", then:

fav ' x under = ~11.91%
fav ' x over = ~ 32.85%
'dog x under = ~ 38.09%
'dog x over = ~ 17.15%

'dog x over = ~17.15% x $6.75 (+575) = ~115.74% *** RTP = +15.74% EV
(snip)
link to original post


Update / Ammendment:

I still think that was a good bet, but the way I estimate the chances is a bit "faulty*** "

***: My way gets a "50/50" estimate for the O/U, but at the cost of "overstating the 'dogs overall chances" (in the above example it shows about 55% for the 'dog, overall).

Anyway, the updated figure would be roughly 4% to 5% EV for the " ' dog x over", for the above lines and totals (so still a good bet, IMO).
ksdjdj
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September 27th, 2022 at 2:54:06 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I don't have a personal opinion on tonight's Cowboys @ Giants game, but I did have 1200 @ +300^^^ on the Cowboys (-7 pts)

^^^: Using the odds with Pinnacle and other sites as a guide, I would estimate the EV is somewhere between 10% and 20% (I used 10% for betting purposes).
(snip)
link to original post


Cowboys won by 7 (so at least I didn't lose).

Here is a run-down of the odds and spreads that I was looking at for the game:
Pinnacle: Giants +7.5 @ -317

"Site that I bet with": Cowboys -7.5 @ +320, Cowboys -7 @ +300, and Cowboys -6.5 @ +260*** (or +250***).

***: Can't remember if it was +260 or +250, but even if I use +260, I think the "... -7 @ +300" was the bet with the better value overall (even though the -6.5 offer obviously would have won, on this occasion).
Ace2
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ksdjdj
September 27th, 2022 at 3:20:17 PM permalink
I bet the away team every game, which gives me a 1.3% edge on the sportsbook.
It’s all about making that GTA
ksdjdj
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September 27th, 2022 at 3:35:52 PM permalink
I just had a $1500 bet on the Dolphins (-7) @ +450***

Comparison odds (Pinnacle) :Dolphins (-7.5) @ +350 and Bengals (+7.5) @ -441

Odds on offer (where I bet): Dolphins (-6.5) @ +375 , Dolphins (-7) @ +450*** , and Dolphins (-7.5) @ +475

***: Using the Pinnacle odds as a guide, and adjusting it to "Dolphins (-7)", the estimated EV is probably somewhere around 20% to 25%.
AZDuffman
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September 28th, 2022 at 5:22:50 AM permalink
Heard a neat "pro tip" on IIRC "Against All Odds" yesterday.

If the line settles at 2.5, take the dog. If it settles at 3.5 take the chalk.

Thinking is if the favorite is not good enough to justify the full key number spread then they are a weak favorite.

Thoughts?
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SOOPOO
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September 28th, 2022 at 6:04:21 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Heard a neat "pro tip" on IIRC "Against All Odds" yesterday.

If the line settles at 2.5, take the dog. If it settles at 3.5 take the chalk.

Thinking is if the favorite is not good enough to justify the full key number spread then they are a weak favorite.

Thoughts?
link to original post



It would be quite easy (for someone!) to check this out over past 20 years. I’d surmise answer is somewhere between 48 and 52%. I had heard of this years ago by the way.
lilredrooster
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September 28th, 2022 at 8:03:45 AM permalink
_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout - the fave over hundreds of trials will lose much, much less than the takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball for years (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
Please don't feed the trolls
unJon
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September 28th, 2022 at 8:06:30 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
link to original post



I’d love to see data on this but I’d be surprised if there was an edge. Sports betting in the US is not parimutuel. And I believe Vegas does not adjust the money lines all the way to balance their books. Instead, I believe they are willing to take some exposure on a loss if the underdog hits to avoid making the favorite +EV.

I could be wrong though.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 28th, 2022 at 8:10:14 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
link to original post



I’d love to see data on this but I’d be surprised if there was an edge. Sports betting in the US is not parimutuel. And I believe Vegas does not adjust the money lines all the way to balance their books. Instead, I believe they are willing to take some exposure on a loss if the underdog hits to avoid making the favorite +EV.

I could be wrong though.
link to original post




okay - but think about this - other than myself - I've never seen anyone on this site make a pick on a big fave such as -250

maybe I missed some - I dunno - but anyway, it's very, very few - I remember when Steeldco was posting baseball picks every single day for many years - I can't ever recall him posting a pick on big fave such as -250

to me - that suggests - that for the books to be solvent - they would have to give what they see as a better deal on the big fave and a worse deal on the shots

Edit - okay, I just looked over some of Steeldco's picks - and I was wrong about that - he did make a few - very few picks on big faves


.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 28th, 2022 at 8:20:39 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
link to original post



I’d love to see data on this but I’d be surprised if there was an edge. Sports betting in the US is not parimutuel. And I believe Vegas does not adjust the money lines all the way to balance their books. Instead, I believe they are willing to take some exposure on a loss if the underdog hits to avoid making the favorite +EV.

I could be wrong though.
link to original post




okay - but think about this - other than myself - I've never seen anyone on this site make a pick on a big fave such as -250

maybe I missed some - I dunno - but anyway, it's very, very few - I remember when Steeldco was posting baseball picks every single day for many years - I can't ever recall him posting a pick on big fave such as -250

to me - that suggests - that for the books to be solvent - they would have to give what they see as a better deal on the big fave than they do on the shots


.
link to original post



I don’t post them because I don’t post everything I bet, but, small sample size, I’ve just LOST two $100 bets on around -275 faves in baseball. (I needed to make those bets to get a certain bonus). I think overall I’ve done very poorly on my big fave baseball bets. The worst team wins 1/3. The best team loses 1/3. It’s not like Georgia versus Samford in football…

Yesterday I tried to bet $1000 to win $.40 on Brazil over Tunisia. At the time with half hour remaining Brazil was ahead 4-1, and Tunisia was playing with 10 players due to a red card. I felt that there was WAY LESS than a 1/2500 chance of Tunisia scoring 3 goals in that half hour down a man. I got interrupted by an important call and never got the bet in. Brazil won 5-1. (Irrelevant). I know it’s silly, but I think I enjoy a +EV opportunity even if it’s for $0.40.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 28th, 2022 at 8:28:32 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
link to original post



I’d love to see data on this but I’d be surprised if there was an edge. Sports betting in the US is not parimutuel. And I believe Vegas does not adjust the money lines all the way to balance their books. Instead, I believe they are willing to take some exposure on a loss if the underdog hits to avoid making the favorite +EV.

I could be wrong though.
link to original post




okay - but think about this - other than myself - I've never seen anyone on this site make a pick on a big fave such as -250

maybe I missed some - I dunno - but anyway, it's very, very few - I remember when Steeldco was posting baseball picks every single day for many years - I can't ever recall him posting a pick on big fave such as -250

to me - that suggests - that for the books to be solvent - they would have to give what they see as a better deal on the big fave than they do on the shots


.
link to original post



I don’t post them because I don’t post everything I bet, but, small sample size, I’ve just LOST two $100 bets on around -275 faves in baseball. (I needed to make those bets to get a certain bonus). I think overall I’ve done very poorly on my big fave baseball bets. The worst team wins 1/3.
link to original post




I don't know how you chose your bets - but this is how I choose mine - there have to be 2 conditions before I make a pick


1. there has to be a drastic difference in the home/ away records such as the home fave is 40-23 at home and the away dog is 24 - 39 on the road

2. the fave's pitcher has to be way, way better than the dog's pitcher - and the dog's starting pitcher has to be a real dog - if he's mediocre - no bet


one of the great stats you can get on pitchers other than ERA is WHIP - walks and hits per inning pitched - and I require for there to be a large difference for a play


it has worked for me - not trying to make any extravagant claims - the edge if it truly exists is not very big - and no guarantees of course






please note that I edited my statement about Steeldco which didn't show up in your quoting me - it shows now in my OP


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 28, 2022
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
rawtuff
September 28th, 2022 at 11:06:10 AM permalink
I LOVE DraftKings. They had a bet offer yesterday on Aaron Judge getting a hit during the game. He played, made one out and walked 4 times! They REFUNDED all losing bets stating ‘since he had so few pitches to swing at’…. When I made the bet, I was well aware he might walk a lot, but still felt at even money it was a good bet. They are offering same bet today. That’s $20 I hope to win. A different site let’s me bet on him getting at least one walk at even money. That’s $10 I hope to win. I haven’t seen a boost for him to hit a homer. But there probably will be one.

DraftKings also has this weekly ‘free prize’. Basically it’s been 3 weeks. Won points worth $4, $2, and $3. I just love when someone gives me free money. Today cash in points for $10 (Caesar’s) and $5 free bet (BetRivers). I think by tomorrow I’ll get $10 cash bonus from BetMGM. It all adds up.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 28th, 2022 at 12:20:37 PM permalink
Not sure if I’d be able to dig through my 5 betting sites’ T’s and C’s, but what happens to my gaggle of bets on Bucs/Chiefs if the game is moved to a different venue? What if the date it is played is changed?
DRich
DRich
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September 28th, 2022 at 12:59:27 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Not sure if I’d be able to dig through my 5 betting sites’ T’s and C’s, but what happens to my gaggle of bets on Bucs/Chiefs if the game is moved to a different venue? What if the date it is played is changed?
link to original post



Nevada books generally cancel bets if date is changed.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
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September 28th, 2022 at 1:00:35 PM permalink
Why would you risk betting $1000 to win $10! Most idiotic bet you can make. Why not wager $10 on a bet that has a realistic shot of winning that pays the opposite way?

I’ve been making a nice profit betting NASCAR. I convinced my coworker to place a bet on Michael McDowell last week at 500:1 before they ran the qualifying for the pole. He started 5th out of 36. 2/3 into the race he was leading and then the officials red flagged the race due to rain and lightning . If the weather remained uncooperative, they could have called the race official. But after a couple of hours they continued and eventually Tyler Reddick won at 15:1 odds which I had in addition to him winning his group at plus 310.

Once again, I made money but my coworker has fall in love with bettin on NASCAR because of the huge odds. There are so many variables in a race, especially towards the end where a long shot can come in. Leaders can crash, leaders can receive pit penalty, weather can end the race, etc.
DRich
DRich
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September 28th, 2022 at 1:20:09 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Why would you risk betting $1000 to win $10! Most idiotic bet you can make.



I would bet $1000 to win $10 on a lot of things.

I will make the bet with you. My $1000 to your $10 that you can't flip a fair coin 25 times and have it come up heads each time.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Ace2
Ace2
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September 28th, 2022 at 1:29:48 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Vegasrider

Why would you risk betting $1000 to win $10! Most idiotic bet you can make.



I would bet $1000 to win $10 on a lot of things.

I will make the bet with you. My $1000 to your $10 that you can't flip a fair coin 25 times and have it come up heads each time.
link to original post

Solid 99.9997% edge. But you will still lose 1 in 34 million bets
It’s all about making that GTA
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 28th, 2022 at 2:24:59 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Why would you risk betting $1000 to win $10! Most idiotic bet you can make. Why not wager $10 on a bet that has a realistic shot of winning that pays the opposite way?

I’ve been making a nice profit betting NASCAR.



The two techniques are not mutually exclusive. I’ve bet and won twice this year on NASCAR. Bet a favorite that ‘should’ have been 6-1 or so but got 10-1.

The most recent $1000 I was going to ‘bet’ would not have won me $10, it was going to get me 40 CENTS! The reason I was willing to do this is this…. Given the teams (Brazil and Tunisia), the score (4-1), the time remaining (30 minutes) and the added bonus that Tunisia was playing a man down, to me, for all intents and purposes there was a zero % chance of Brazil not winning. I looked at more this way……. Push this button and we deposit money into your account.

I also think that it will appear to increase the ‘action’ this website thinks I am giving them, but that’s a separate discussion.
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
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September 28th, 2022 at 3:16:14 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Heard a neat "pro tip" on IIRC "Against All Odds" yesterday.

If the line settles at 2.5, take the dog. If it settles at 3.5 take the chalk.

Thinking is if the favorite is not good enough to justify the full key number spread then they are a weak favorite.

Thoughts?
link to original post



I know of one pro who has kept records since 2011 of his sports bets, and he has said that he has historically won less money on bets with a -3.5 line than with any other point spread.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DRich
DRich
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September 28th, 2022 at 3:56:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: DRich

Quote: Vegasrider

Why would you risk betting $1000 to win $10! Most idiotic bet you can make.



I would bet $1000 to win $10 on a lot of things.

I will make the bet with you. My $1000 to your $10 that you can't flip a fair coin 25 times and have it come up heads each time.
link to original post

Solid 99.9997% edge. But you will still lose 1 in 34 million bets
link to original post



Yes, but by then I should have won $340 million dollars. I will gladly pay $1000
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
JimRockford
JimRockford
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September 28th, 2022 at 9:12:05 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

The most recent $1000 I was going to ‘bet’ would not have won me $10, it was going to get me 40 CENTS! The reason I was willing to do this is this…. Given the teams (Brazil and Tunisia), the score (4-1), the time remaining (30 minutes) and the added bonus that Tunisia was playing a man down, to me, for all intents and purposes there was a zero % chance of Brazil not winning. I looked at more this way……. Push this button and we deposit money into your account.
link to original post


That’s outstanding SOOPOO. Can’t just leave $0.40 on the table.
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." -- Isaac Newton
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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September 29th, 2022 at 4:04:39 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



The most recent $1000 I was going to ‘bet’ would not have won me $10, it was going to get me 40 CENTS! The reason I was willing to do this is this…. Given the teams (Brazil and Tunisia), the score (4-1), the time remaining (30 minutes) and the added bonus that Tunisia was playing a man down, to me, for all intents and purposes there was a zero % chance of Brazil not winning. I looked at more this way……. Push this button and we deposit money into your account.

I also think that it will appear to increase the ‘action’ this website thinks I am giving them, but that’s a separate discussion.
link to original post



This is called "scalping" and should be moved to the investment thread.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 29th, 2022 at 6:08:25 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



The most recent $1000 I was going to ‘bet’ would not have won me $10, it was going to get me 40 CENTS! The reason I was willing to do this is this…. Given the teams (Brazil and Tunisia), the score (4-1), the time remaining (30 minutes) and the added bonus that Tunisia was playing a man down, to me, for all intents and purposes there was a zero % chance of Brazil not winning. I looked at more this way……. Push this button and we deposit money into your account.

I also think that it will appear to increase the ‘action’ this website thinks I am giving them, but that’s a separate discussion.
link to original post



This is called "scalping" and should be moved to the investment thread.
link to original post



Well…. I certainly might get caught doing one of these…. If there was such a bet against Leicester City winning the Premier League a few years back I could have lost that $1k.

I HATE that I bet on the Dolphins tonight! I’m hoping for an opening kickoff TD for the fish.
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
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September 29th, 2022 at 8:38:57 AM permalink
Never heard of the term “Scalping” is it the same as a bridge jumper bet?
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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September 29th, 2022 at 11:09:13 AM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Never heard of the term “Scalping” is it the same as a bridge jumper bet?
link to original post



MODERATORS: Move this to the investment thread if it is going off-topic.

Scalping is a shot term trade to make a small profit by taking advantage of a particular market. The "short time" can be from seconds to a few days. Seconds with stocks, days with options.

I will relate this to sports betting at the end.

Options have a thing called "theta" which is also called "time decay." Sometimes I can find am option expiring Friday (almost all expire on Friday) with 30 or more cents of theta. Lets pretend Ford is selling at $15 per share and I find an option with a strike price of $14.50 and it is selling for $0.80 and today is Thursday. (Yes, today is Thursday! But for those of you in Rio Linda I am using Thursday as an example.)

I do not think the stock will fall below $14.50 in a day and a half so I buy 100 shares and sell 1 of the aforesaid options so I am buying at a net price of $14.20. I then just wait for close of market on Friday. If the stock is above $14.50 then the option gets exercised and my stock gets sold at $14.50. But remember, I paid a net of $14.20 the day before. Giving me a nice $0.30 profit for holding it one day!

On stocks it is a little different. You need a fast connection and Level 2 quotes. In that case I look for lots of buy orders a little below the current price, indicating good support (or reverse that for short sales). I buy a few hundred shares, maybe 1,000 or more depending on my account size. I then hope for other buyers and the price popping a few cents. Then I sell and lock in that small profit. Then lather, rinse, and repeat.

For sports you would look for perhaps Robert Morris University football team in an early season jobber game to Notre Dame and bet the moneyline on Notre Dame. Small profit but almost a sure profit.

So scalping is taking a very strong position were you can make a small profit. Maybe similar to a bridge jumper bet.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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