SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 24th, 2022 at 11:57:45 AM permalink
New thread so I don’t keep hijacking all the other threads….

BetMGM actually had a money line on Georgia -Kent State. I bet $1000 to win $10. Georgia is up TEN in the 4th quarter, and it could have been just EIGHT! They were 44.5 point favorites…. Gulp….

So I tried to find the correlated parlays ksdjdj has been touting, but either the parlay was disallowed, or instead of being +260 or so they were only +170 or so!

But…. I was able to parlay the underdog (Kent State) +44.5 and Over 61.5 and got a whopping +575!!! It may not go over but it’s close now. That must have been +EV.
DRich
DRich
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
September 24th, 2022 at 12:17:20 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


But…. I was able to parlay the underdog (Kent State) +44.5 and Over 61.5 and got a whopping +575!!! It may not go over but it’s close now. That must have been +EV.



Sorry, you missed it by this "" much.
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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 24th, 2022 at 12:33:36 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


But…. I was able to parlay the underdog (Kent State) +44.5 and Over 61.5 and got a whopping +575!!! It may not go over but it’s close now. That must have been +EV.



Sorry, you missed it by this "" much.
link to original post

. Last night I missed a pretty big parlay when my team missed XP (meaningless for the game result) at the end of the game.

FanDuel gave everyone a free bet who lost their ‘special parlay boost’ which included Steelers plus 7.5. Best Offer of the day was BetRivers. Deposit $100 and get a free $100 bet.
I won my $10 on Georgia but probably not my best idea….
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 24th, 2022 at 12:47:36 PM permalink
I would have probably had that bet too, if I could get on.

Assuming 44.5 and 61.5 was "the 50/50 line", then:

fav ' x under = ~11.91%
fav ' x over = ~ 32.85%
'dog x under = ~ 38.09%
'dog x over = ~ 17.15%

'dog x over = ~17.15% x $6.75 (+575) = ~115.74% *** RTP = +15.74% EV

***: Used the "non-rounded" figures to get this estimated RTP.

Note: I normally don't bet on the " 'dog x over", or "fav' x under", unless I am offsetting (but it doesn't change the fact that I think this was a "good bet").

----
"All games, I could have bet on":

Unlucky^^^ for me, the withdrawal I was waiting on since Tuesday didn't arrive, so I couldn't take the correlated parlays/doubles.

^^^: I haven't checked results for the other games yet, but below were the "best ones" that I would have bet on if I could.

Nevada +24.5 / Under 46.5 @ +260
Air Force -24.5 / Over 46.5 @ +260

Bowling Green +31.5 / Under 52.5 @ +250
Mississippi State -31.5 / Over 52.5 @ +260

and/or this 1st half double:
Bowling Green +19.5 / Under 28.5 @ +220
Mississippi State -19.5 / Over 28.5 @ +280

Kent State +45.5 / Under 62.5 @ +235
Georgia -45.5 / Over 62.5 @ +280

... 1st Half:
Kent State +29.5 / Under 35.5 +205
Georgia -29.5 / Over 35.5 +310

... 1st Half:
Florida International +20.5 / Under 36.5 @ +250
Western Kentucky -20.5 / Over 36.5 @ +250

... 1st Half:
Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Vanderbilt +40.5 / Under 59.5 @ +250
Alabama -40.5 / Over 59.5 @ +260

... 1st Half:
Vanderbilt +25.5 / Under 34.5 @ +230
Alabama -25.5 / Over 34.5 @ +270

Connecticut +38.5 / Under 49.5 @ +245
NC State -38.5 / Over 49.5 @ +270
Connecticut +38.5 / Over 49.5 @ +600

... 1st Half:
Connecticut +24.5 / Under 28.5 @ +195
NC State -24.5 / Over 28.5 @ +325

and likely any other games that had a 50%+ "line / total ".

-----
Other :

In the Kent State / Georgia game, lucky for me the first score was a TD (I think only 6 of the 13 scores were a TD).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 24, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 24th, 2022 at 2:50:15 PM permalink
Since I didn't want all the work I did this week to "go to waste", I had a combined total of $200 on all these "great EV, but unlikely to win bets" below:

Note 1: They are all for the 1st quarter "line x totals".
Note 2: If any win, I should get about a $40k return, on average.
Note 3: All odds are decimal odds

----
1)
Akron +7.5 / Under 13.5
Kentucky -7.5 / Over 11.5
Vanderbilt +11.5 / Under 14.5
Connecticut +9.5 / Under 10.5
LSU -7.5 / Over 10.5

Odds: ~ $616

----
2)
Akron +7.5 / Under 13.5
Kentucky -7.5 / Over 11.5
Vanderbilt +11.5 / Under 14.5
NC State -9.5 / Over 10.5
LSU -7.5 / Over 10.5

Odds: ~ $873

----
3)
Akron +7.5 / Under 13.5
Kentucky -7.5 / Over 11.5
Alabama -11.5 / Over 14.5
Connecticut +9.5 / Under 10.5
LSU -7.5 / Over 10.5

Odds: ~ $782

----
4)
Akron +7.5 / Under 13.5
Kentucky -7.5 / Over 11.5
Alabama -11.5 / Over 14.5
NC State -9.5 / Over 10.5
LSU -7.5 / Over 10.5

Odds: ~ $1108
DRich
DRich
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ksdjdjMission146
September 24th, 2022 at 3:37:37 PM permalink
Good luck with your bets. I couldn't imagine having any faith in Akron. I didn't expect them to win a game this year. I also like Hugh Freeze the head coach at Liberty. Hopefully the Zips can keep it close for one quarter.

CONGRATS: You got the Akron game.
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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 3:45:20 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Good luck with your bets. I couldn't imagine having any faith in Akron. I didn't expect them to win a game this year. I also like Hugh Freeze the head coach at Liberty. Hopefully the Zips can keep it close for one quarter.

CONGRATS: You got the Akron game.
link to original post


If i had time, I would have put in "Liberty x Over" for the first quarter, too.
But, I though I wouldn't have enough time to get all of them on (I only ended up having 5 minutes to spare, for the above bets anyway).

----
Update (~1615, Pac Time):
It looks likely that my "Kentucky,,," part of the bet is going to be a loser (but there is still 9 minutes to go).

----
Update 2 (~1635, Pac Time):
All bets have lost now (because "Kentucky x Over in the 1st Quarter" lost)
I still would have targeted the same options^^^, if I was given a similar choice***
^^^: With more funds available, I would have just bet on individual games, though.
***:: With more time, I probably would have tried to bet the "opposites" .

Also, the best ones "on paper" this week were probably:
1st Quarter:
NC State -9.5 / Over 10.5 @ $4.25 (+325)
Connecticut +9.5 / Under 10.5 @ $3 (+200)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 24, 2022
Ace2
Ace2
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 3:48:38 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Is that a WNBA game ?
It’s all about making that GTA
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 4:03:08 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj


Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Is that a WNBA game ?
link to original post


First half NCAAF.
DRich
DRich
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 4:36:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj


Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Is that a WNBA game ?
link to original post



Come on Ace, the WNBA season wrapped up last week.
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