Sports betting chatter
Quote: FinsRuleI missed out on $100 by including Miami over middle Tennessee state in my parlay last weekend
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I had Miami -26.5. Didn’t go as I had planned….
I have the ‘early win’ 7 point thingie on the Dolphins. I am sort of segregating that bet in my mind…..
I took a flyer on Bengals -16.5. I think I got around 3-1. I also got a bunch of parlays basically needing Dolphins not to score much….
Anyway, while attempting to do some "offset betting", I got these "line x totals" (see bet summary below)
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Bet Summary:
Book A: Utah State +25.5 / Over 59.5 and BYU -25.5 / Under 59.5
Combined odds about +139
Amount: ~26.25% ***
Book B: BYU -26.5 / Over 60.5 and Utah State +26.5 / Under 59.5
Combined odds about -121
Amount: ~73.75% ***
***: These are the %s' of the total amount that I have bet on this game.
Important: This game was not a true "offset betting" opportunity, because the "Lines x Totals" were not the same, even with the same book (see further analysis below).
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Bet Analysis:
If this was a true "offset bet^^^ ", I will either:
lose about 37.26% of the total money invested in this game or
win about 34.70% of the total money invested in this game.
^^^: By attempting to offset, I have received the equivalent odds of roughly -108 most of time, in terms of "max win" vs "max loss".
But, because of the differences in the "Lines x Totals", for each bet there is a small chance that all the bets can lose, or two bets can win.
General: About 1/90 games end with a difference of 26, and going by the pre-game odds, BYU roughly have a 93.5% chance of winning the game.
So, there is about 4/385 chance that BYU will win by exactly 26 points (In reality the chance is probably a bit higher than that, since the line for the game was around -26 for BYU).
Also, assume that 59.5 was the "50/50" total for this game.
1) "Two bets could win": From the figures above, we can get a rough chance of the total going under 59.5, and BYU winning by 26 points, and that is about 4/770 (see working below).
Working = "Chance that BYU win by 26" x "Chance of Total under 59.5" = 4/385 x 50% = 4/770.
2) "All bets could lose": From the figures above, we can get a rough chance of the total going over 59.5, and BYU winning by 26 points, and that is about 4/770 (see working below).
Working = "Chance that BYU win by 26" x "Chance of Total over 59.5" = 4/385 x 50% = 4/770.
3) "If the total lands on 60": I will either lose on all bets, or I will lose ~37.26% of all the money that I bet on this game (the chance of this is very small ### ).
###: If the total lands on 60, then the only way I can lose all the bets is if the finale score is 17 - 43 (BYU wins).
Quote: ksdjdjI just had a $1500 bet on the Dolphins (-7) ...
(snip)
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With about 12 minutes to go in the 4th (score 15-17) I bailed out of this bet for a loss of ~ 865.
Note 1: The wagers below are biased towards "New Mexico +14.5 ..." , since those were the ones that I thought had the best value (using Pinnacle and other sites as references).
Note 2: I tied up 25% of my betting funds in this.
Note 3: I don't want to tie up all my funds, because there looks to be better options available later this weekend (for College Football).
Note 4: Since I am not disclosing the prices I got, I will call this an "investment summary " rather than "bet summary" (they mean / or pretty much mean the same thing, though).
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Investment Summary:
Main Bets:
New Mexico +14.5 / Under 44.5
ROI if this bet wins: ~2.5%
Estimated chance of this bet winning = ~29.3%
Contribution to average ROI = ~0.75%
New Mexico +14.5 / Over 44.5
ROI if this bet wins: ~8.8%
Estimated chance of this bet winning = ~22.7%
Contribution to average ROI = ~2.00%
Other /"Offsetting" Bets:
UNLV -14.5 / Over 44.5
UNLV -14.5 / Under 44.5
Average ROI if one of these bets win: about -0.4%
Estimated combined chances of these bets winning = ~48%
Contribution to average ROI = about -0.19%
Therefore, based on the above figures, the average ROI for this series of bets is: 2.56%.
Proof: 0.75% +2.00% - 0.19% = 2.56% (if I worked out the above, correctly).
I won a big (for me…) parlay….
Bengals -3.5. Under 47.5. Burrow over 280yds.
The biggie…. Tua under 209 yards. The ‘fair line’ for Tua yds passing was around 275. For Burrow around 250…. So got plus odds on both of those! I did not expect Tua to be right after his concussion against the Bills….
Also won a bet (live) on Tua not to throw a second interception at even money.
The feel bad reason? DraftKings refunded my Dolphin money line bet because of the Tua injury!!!!
It’s funny…. I ‘know’ I’m no better than 50/50 on pointspread type bets, but I am patting myself on the back for ‘knowing’ how this game was going to play out!
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
New Mexico +14.5 / Over 44.5
ROI if this bet wins: ~8.8%
(snip)
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The one with the best estimated EV (ROI) ended up winning, so that was great. But, it was with the book that doesn't do the quick withdrawals.
Anyway I won't say the $ amounts, but below are my bets for the "Early Morning Australia time College games":
Note 1: All prices are in decimal odds (as I am just cutting and pasting from the 'book).
Note 2: The figures' in brackets are the rough % of my "total betting funds" , that I wagered on that betting option.
Massachusetts +19.5 / Over 53.5 @ 5.00 (0.39% )
Eastern Michigan -19.5 / Under 53.5 @ 4.80 (0.44%)
Utah -10.5 / Under 54.5 @ 4.20 (0.23%)
James Madison -21.5 / Under 51.5 @ 5.00 (0.51%)
Texas State +21.5 / Over 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Navy +13.5 / Over 38.5 @ 5.00 (0.25%)
Air Force -13.5 / Under 38.5 @ 4.60 (0.26%)
Temple +18.5 / Over 50.5 @ 5.00 (0.37%)
Memphis -18.5 / Under 50.5 @ 5.00 (0.37%)
Wisconsin -6.5 / Under 43.5 @ 4.00 (0.13%)
Louisville -13.5 / Under 51.5 @ 4.40 (0.23%)
Minnesota -10.5 / Under 52.5 @ 4.10 (0.42%)
Michigan -10.5 / Under 42.5 @ 4.40 (0.21%)
Iowa +10.5 / Over 42.5 @ 4.60 (0.20%)
Quote: SOOPOOWhy does it matter to you if a book doesn’t do ‘quick withdrawals’? I think if I win the best I could do is around two days. But I just leave a pot of money in each book, and withdraw once I get over a certain amount.
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The reason it could have mattered is because last week I would have probably been able to "hammer" the Wagner @ Syracuse game with all my funds***, and received ~25% ROI (if I made my bets to get the same payout on each selection).
***: If this game was played last week, instead of this week.
But, it doesn't matter now, because the "good correlated play" 'book doesn't seem to be doing that anymore, if the line is around 23 or bigger.
Note: I was expecting this, because this has happened every year for the last few years now (the 'book putting up good correlated odds/plays early in the NCAAF season, and then realizing their error).
Again, I won't say the $ amounts, but below are some more bets:
Note 1: All prices are in decimal odds (as I am just cutting and pasting from the 'book).
Note 2: The figures' in brackets are the rough % of my "total betting funds" that I wagered on that betting option.
Note 3: I don't think I mentioned this last time, but these bets (like the bets in the link at the top) are what I would call "reverse correlated plays " (in other words, they are plays were the estimated chance for them to win is likely less than 25% per option that I have bet on).
William & Mary -17.5 / Under 44.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Stony Brook +17.5 / Over 44.5 @ 5.00 (0.51%)
Fresno State -23.5 / Under 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Connecticut +23.5 / Over 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Arkansas +17.5 / Over 61.5 @ 4.20 (0.38%)
Alabama -17.5 / Under 61.5 @ 4.40 (0.37%)
Penn State -25.5 / Under 50.5 @ 5.50 (0.55%)
Northwestern +25.5 / Over 50.5 @ 6.00 (0.5%)
Indiana State +23.5 / Over 49.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Northern Iowa -22.5 / Under 48.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 47.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 47.5 @ 5.50 (0.52%)
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I will post the results later, when all games are finished
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Update (I just got on the Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh, with all 'books):
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 46.5 @ 6.00
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Over 46.5 @ 3.50
Georgia Tech +21.5 / Under 46.5 3.60
Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5 @ 5.50
. 60% of my funds were bets on these
. Make ~4% ROI, if either "Pittsburgh -21.5 / Over 46.5" or "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Under 46.5" hit.
. Make ~14% ROI, if "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5" hits.
. Make ~24% ROI, if "Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 46.5" hits.
Quote: Ace2Does your sportsbook allow “call bets” ?
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No, but it would have been nice if they did.
Note: I had them all as trebles
Saints -3 @ +240
Bills +3.5 @ -275
Commanders -3 @ +225
Giants -7 @ +210
Panthers -7 @ +240
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Possible Outcomes:
Note: FYI. the figures below do not take into account the chance of a leg pushing (in other words it assumes the leg can only either win or lose).
Bet: $700 in total (on all the 10 different trebles)
.
If 0 to 2 out of 5 legs win, then I will lose $700
If 3/5 legs win, I will collect at least $1,335*** (profit $635+)
If 4/5 legs win, I will collect at least $5.340*** (profit $4,640+)
If all 5^^^ legs win, I will collect at least $13,350*** (profit $12,650+)
***: I will collect between $1,335 and $1,355 for each winning treble, but I used the lowest figure of $1,335 for all potential profit calcs above (to simplify the "working out" in this post).
^^^: I think I have an edge with these bets, but if we assume a 0% edge on these bets, then there is about a 1/159 chance for all 5 legs to win.
Quote: ksdjdjLink to other bets, just in case it ends up being on the previous page
(snip)
William & Mary -17.5 / Under 44.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Stony Brook +17.5 / Over 44.5 @ 5.00 (0.51%)
Fresno State -23.5 / Under 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Connecticut +23.5 / Over 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Arkansas +17.5 / Over 61.5 @ 4.20 (0.38%)
Alabama -17.5 / Under 61.5 @ 4.40 (0.37%)
Penn State -25.5 / Under 50.5 @ 5.50 (0.55%)
Northwestern +25.5 / Over 50.5 @ 6.00 (0.5%)
Indiana State +23.5 / Over 49.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Northern Iowa -22.5 / Under 48.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 47.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 47.5 @ 5.50 (0.52%)
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I will post the results later, when all games are finished
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Update (I just got on the Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh, with all 'books):
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 46.5 @ 6.00
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Over 46.5 @ 3.50
Georgia Tech +21.5 / Under 46.5 3.60
Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5 @ 5.50
. 60% of my funds were bets on these
. Make ~4% ROI, if either "Pittsburgh -21.5 / Over 46.5" or "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Under 46.5" hit.
. Make ~14% ROI, if "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5" hits.
. Make ~24% ROI, if "Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 46.5" hits.
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Below are my results for this week, in NCAAF.
Note: I haven't checked the results to make sure the bets have been graded correctly, yet.
"Small bets": I lost about 7.21% of my "previous betting funds".
"Big bet game" / the "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5" one: I gained about 8.39%^^^ of my "previous betting funds".
^^^: ~14% "ROI for that game " x 60% "of my betting funds" = ~8.39%
Total growth (compared to "previous betting funds"): +1.18% (8.39% - 7.21%)
.
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Extra:
For the Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh game, I was very lucky### that the total went over 46.5 (score was 26-21) otherwise I would have lost overall for the college footballs parlays, this week.
###: The final TD was scored in the last 16 seconds, according to ESPN.
I have another 10-1 soccer parlay, all wins so far, that I need Leeds to win today!
And a bunch of parlays that start with the Vikings winning this morning. I’m actually unhappy that Mr. Interception, Jameis Winston, is out!
Silly parlay of the day…. Leclerc top 3. Hamilton top 6. Hurts over 224.5 yds passing…..
Quote: ksdjdjJust had 4k on the Chiefs @ +110 ML.
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Just got paid, since the book I am using grades the ML bet as a winner, if the team you back is up by 17 (or more) points.
Note 1; The current live ML odds with that book is, -450 KC / +330 TB. After the TB TD, it is now -400 KC / +300 TB
Note 2: I have mentioned this before, but using the historical data for the 2014-2021 seasons, a team has about 1/55*** chance of coming back and winning , after being down 17+ points..
***: Eyeballing it, that chance figure is probably a bit higher for a Team with Brady as QB.
Quote: SOOPOOI did well yesterday. I did one 7 team parlay, all moderate faves. For each leg the profit gets boosted. Only close game was South Alabama squeaking out win at the buzzer. Paid around 10-1. Luckily Fresno State was too much of a favorite to be included…..
I have another 10-1 soccer parlay, all wins so far, that I need Leeds to win today!
And a bunch of parlays that start with the Vikings winning this morning. I’m actually unhappy that Mr. Interception, Jameis Winston, is out!
Silly parlay of the day…. Leclerc top 3. Hamilton top 6. Hurts over 224.5 yds passing…..
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So I pushed the wrong button…. Good! Apparently one of my soccer parlays with Leeds was TIE NO BET! So I won, just less than if they won.
Vikings came through (barely). My biggest bet was Chiefs ML, with hedge on Bucs +3. Had Bucs scored last meaningless TD would have neutralized the hedge.
I’m at new ATH. Trusting the process. Did DK withdrawal today. Money was in my account minutes after I put in the request.
Go Leicester today!
"Good" news, even though the bet lost, I managed to get back almost $100^^^ by "cashing out".
^^^: It was early in the 4th Quarter (the score was 9-17) when I requested it. Also, I wasn't expecting to get anything back because they were not posting any "cash out" value at the time of my request (I just applied for the minimum "Auto Cash Out" of $2).
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Extra:
Even though I am still "behind this year" with my cash outs, I would have estimated that the value of my "1k on the Rams @ -9.5 / odds +400" would have been worth $15*** at most, at the time of "cash out".
***: That was the figure I got using an online "Win Probability Calculator", IMO at the time it was probably worth less than $2 (which is why, I was happy to ask for the minimum).
Conclusion:
Even if I use the maximum figure of $15 as the value of the ticket, I am still about $85 better off on average by "cashing out" than "letting the bet ride/stand" ($100 received less $15 "maximum value of the ticket at the time of cash out" = $85).
pressure is building on legal U.S. sportsbooks as advertising and promos have kept most from being profitable in the last quarter
of the publicly traded companies only FanDuel showed a profit in the last quarter
FanDuel has a 47% market share - DraftKings and BetMGM control another 35% between them
from the article re Casesar's______
"When legal sports gambling went live in New York at the start of this year, Caesars ran an even more generous promotion: a deposit match up to $3,000, plus a $300 bonus. Caesars achieved 40 percent market share in what has become the highest-betting state - (New York) (at least before Californians vote in November on whether to legalize sports gambling). But Caesars needed to rein in its promotion within weeks, and its market share in New York has fallen to about 21 percent, per Eilers & Krejcik."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/09/27/caesars-fanduel-draftkings-commercials/
.
That's why they need to continuity give us 3k free rolls. We promise to stay loyal customers. 😁Quote: lilredrooster_____________
pressure is building on legal U.S. sportsbooks as advertising and promos have kept most from being profitable in the last quarter
of the publicly traded companies only FanDuel showed a profit in the last quarter
FanDuel has a 47% market share - DraftKings and BetMGM control another 35% between them
from the article re Casesar's______
"When legal sports gambling went live in New York at the start of this year, Caesars ran an even more generous promotion: a deposit match up to $3,000, plus a $300 bonus. Caesars achieved 40 percent market share in what has become the highest-betting state - (New York) (at least before Californians vote in November on whether to legalize sports gambling). But Caesars needed to rein in its promotion within weeks, and its market share in New York has fallen to about 21 percent, per Eilers & Krejcik."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/09/27/caesars-fanduel-draftkings-commercials/
.
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Yesterday I did the opposite! Parlayed 3 teams that were looking for wins, Mets, Braves, Cardinals. Cardinals had big ninth inning comeback! Also had Yankees/Cardinals figuring Yanks still trying until Judge hit number 62. I’ll be betting against Yanks today. I think I’m going to take a bunch of overs as well, as I’m expecting bottom of the barrel pitchers will be trotted out there all day.
Braves +$1150
Yankees +$825
Mets +$456
Astros -$107
Dodgers -$125
Anyone else -$350
I think I’ve gotten over $100 worth of free bets and the like for these bets that I’ve already used.
I think the Dodgers are most people’s pick to win it all. But the Mets have a really good threesome of DeGrom, Scherzer, and Bassitt. The Braves just crushed the Mets threesome. Let the games begin!
Quote: SOOPOOI haven’t looked at matchups/odds yet, but I plan on betting today against teams that have clinched a playoff spot and position, like the Mets, Braves, Dodgers, Astros, etc…Their managers will be resting starters, and specifically using pitchers that might not even be good enough to make the post season rosters.
Yesterday I did the opposite! Parlayed 3 teams that were looking for wins, Mets, Braves, Cardinals. Cardinals had big ninth inning comeback! Also had Yankees/Cardinals figuring Yanks still trying until Judge hit number 62. I’ll be betting against Yanks today. I think I’m going to take a bunch of overs as well, as I’m expecting bottom of the barrel pitchers will be trotted out there all day.
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I had the over in the White Sox game yesterday. Game started at 3 central. At 3:45 I went on DK to check my account and I had already been credited for the win. It was 9-0 in the 2nd inning.
My reasoning was same as yours.
Quote: SOOPOOOver the past year there have been offers including free bets, profit boost, etc… for WS winner. This is what I have left.
Braves +$1150
Yankees +$825
Mets +$456
Astros -$107
Dodgers -$125
Anyone else -$350
I think I’ve gotten over $100 worth of free bets and the like for these bets that I’ve already used.
I think the Dodgers are most people’s pick to win it all. But the Mets have a really good threesome of DeGrom, Scherzer, and Bassitt. The Braves just crushed the Mets threesome. Let the games begin!
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I just spread all my free bets across futures. I’m at around $500 for most teams. $1000 for the Dodgers.
Quote: FinsRuleQuote: SOOPOOOver the past year there have been offers including free bets, profit boost, etc… for WS winner. This is what I have left.
Braves +$1150
Yankees +$825
Mets +$456
Astros -$107
Dodgers -$125
Anyone else -$350
I think I’ve gotten over $100 worth of free bets and the like for these bets that I’ve already used.
I think the Dodgers are most people’s pick to win it all. But the Mets have a really good threesome of DeGrom, Scherzer, and Bassitt. The Braves just crushed the Mets threesome. Let the games begin!
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I just spread all my free bets across futures. I’m at around $500 for most teams. $1000 for the Dodgers.
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Mine were different amounts at different times using a variety of different offers. I still get an extra bonus for every series the Astros win. Could in theory be 3 free bets. When I added it all up I had bet $350 in real money.
I needed to make a $100 bet today to get an offer. I am probably one of the few Americans happy that Helsinki tied Ludogoretz. It was 1-1 with 15 minutes to go and I bet the draw at -175. That’s $57for the good guy!
As bad as Pittsburgh is, and they are bad…. Took them plus 14…. That’s what the line was before a bunch of these injuries….. Poyer and Knox are the two big ‘new’ injuries.
I’ll be surprised if line stays that high….
Quote: SOOPOONeeded to make random $50 bet for promo. Saw Bills now will be without…. Both starting safeties…. starting corner…. Corner who filled in for starting corner…. number one tight end…. Number 3 WR…. Maybe number 4 WR….. possibly 2 DL…. Possibly MLB….
As bad as Pittsburgh is, and they are bad…. Took them plus 14…. That’s what the line was before a bunch of these injuries….. Poyer and Knox are the two big ‘new’ injuries.
I’ll be surprised if line stays that high….
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See, you do not need a secondary if the opposing team cannot complete a pass lol
I took the Bills for the picks contest, though have not laid out any real money yet. They are averaging a 14 point win, the last 2 weeks could be a fluke. They are probably looking to show they are still the team to beat. The Steelers just let the Jets walk all over them at home. Away against a good team? I say fugheddabaddit.
Here is another thing. The Steelers lose this week and they have to be at "write the season off" with what will be 4 losses when 7 total losses pretty much means no playoffs. So they go down big early, and look for that, well, at halftime guys may be booking golf vacations for January,
Let me say how liberating it is to only care about a point spread in sports. Well, that is a lie. I also care about over/under.
Packers -6.5/ Rodgers over 249.5 yds passing is +400
Packers are 8 point faves.
Rodgers O/U passing prop is 225.
I think fair odds is around +270 or so, as the two outcomes are somewhat correlated.
Before this offer I had another parlay offer and include the Giants +8. Looking for Packers to win by 7….
Just need "Pittsburgh -3.5 x Over 7.5 in the first quarter" to win ~5k @ +310.
Edit:
By the time I finished writing this post, it was already Pittsburgh 4th and 10 : (
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).
Quote: ksdjdjCome on Pittsburgh.
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).
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Glad to see you got even.
Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdjCome on Pittsburgh.
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).
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Glad to see you got even.
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Thanks.
This is probably the "best estimated EV game" today (that they put "same game doubles" odds up for, at least):
It is to win between 4.8k and 5k, and I need either: "Alabama -7.5 / Over 10.5 - 1st Quarter" or "Texas A&M +7.5 / Under 10.5 - 1st Quarter" (I got the equivalent odds of about -131, combined).
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Update (~1735, Pac Time):
Extra:
I had other "fairly big bets" on doubles for the 'Bama game and the Hawaii @ San Diego State game, and a "smaller but still +EV IMO bet" on the "Steelers +14.5 / Under 45.5", tomorrow.
Lastly, I probably won't be betting on the "NFL win by exactly 3 (or 7)" markets anymore, because they have "effectively barred" me on those bets, now. ^^^
^^^: I will explain this in more detail in my "diary" thread, once all those bets have been resolved.
Had a great week on the NCAAF, as I won a little bit less than 10k (I included my Steelers' bet in that figure, even though that is NFL)..
I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).
^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).
Quote: ksdjdj(See my previous post, above):
Had a great week on the NCAAF, as I won a little bit less than 10k (I included my Steelers' bet in that figure, even though that is NFL)..
I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).
^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).
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Geez…. You make $3k ‘fun’ bets!?!? I make my + EV bets at whatever the Sportsbook limits me to…. And my ‘fun’ bets are usually $5. I won’t deny I’ve made $1 bets as well…
Boosted win on Jets over Dolphins money line. Almost made up for my Steelers +14 bet. I will also admit I found a Steelers +14.5 line and added to my misery.
FanDuel gave +200 on Falcons +21.5, Browns +7.5, and Cowboys +10.5. Limit of $50 to win $100. Seemed too good to be true. But they paid.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).
^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).
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Geez…. You make $3k ‘fun’ bets!?!? (snip)
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Even though I called it a "fun" bet, it is probably closer to "trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" bet (since they are now the last one that I can get on for decent amounts).
Note 1: IMO, the "fair line" for Bengals -300 was somewhere between +10 to +10.5
Note 2: I know I can still lose, but it is looking a lot better at half time than it was before the V.Bell interception.
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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(snip)
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(snip)"trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" (snip)
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Here is another "trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" bet, below:
1000 to win 600 on the Chiefs @ -4
Note 1: I think the estimated EV is between 1% and 2%, ATM .
Note 2: Normally I would want an estimated EV of at least 8%, before I bet these "fairly big" amounts.
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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(snip)
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(snip)"trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" (snip)
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Here is another "trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" bet, below:
1000 to win 600 on the Chiefs @ -4
Note 1: I think the estimated EV is between 1% and 2%, ATM .
Note 2: Normally I would want an estimated EV of at least 8%, before I bet these "fairly big" amounts.
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I checked 3 of the books I play. Chiefs -4 only pays between $500 and $530 on them. Why do you think yours is off by so much?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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(snip)
link to original post
(snip)"trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" (snip)
link to original post
Here is another "trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" bet, below:
1000 to win 600 on the Chiefs @ -4
Note 1: I think the estimated EV is between 1% and 2%, ATM .
Note 2: Normally I would want an estimated EV of at least 8%, before I bet these "fairly big" amounts.
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I checked 3 of the books I play. Chiefs -4 only pays between $500 and $530 on them. Why do you think yours is off by so much?
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I don't know why*** .
But I think they got me on this one ("EV wise") because when I looked at the "average public lines" at the time I had KC as a 52% chance @ -7, but now it is probably closer to a 50% chance @ -7 .
***: I was going to write, that they could be a "generally shorter price on the 'dog type book", but I had a look at next weeks' lines and they are "pretty balanced" (for some games the 'dogs have better ML, and others the ML is worse).
After this bet, below is the list of most of the possible results for me in this game, in order of potential "collect", highest to lowest (incl. are bets from my "diary" threads):
. "Chiefs win by exactly 7### and under 51.5" = 13,450
. "Raiders win by 6*** (or more) and under 51.5 " = ~13,330
. "Chiefs win by exactly 7### and over 51.5" = 11,950
. "Raiders win by 6*** (or more) and over 51.5" = ~11,830
. All other "collects", on potential winning combinations are between: 1,500 and 3,100
. Outlay*** for this game (so, maximum loss) = 2,160
###: see post here for more details
***: This "max loss" figure is only based on my bets that are still "alive" for this game (FYI, my total bet on "doubles" and "trebles" was 1,640, for all games this week^^^).
^^^: see post here for more details
Sent from phone, spelling not checked
Quote: SOOPOO(snip) Gotta trust the process!
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Tru dat.
Doesn't matter the amounts***, or how you get an edge (as long as it is legal).
***: For example, my most recent "smaller play" was that I could bet up to $100 boosted^^^ odds on the "76ers to win the NBA championship" @ 18/1### (boosted from 13/1).
^^^: I had a choice between that, or the Warriors for the same sort of deal, except they were boosted to 7/1 (from 6/1).
###: I also took an option within the same "boosted odds ", and got the equivalent of $100 @ 9/1 that the "76ers will make it to the NBA championship".
Note 1: The odds were $1.90 (decimal) for all bets (unless stated otherwise)
Note 2: I just cut and pasted from the 'book that I am using, so that is why it is written the "VS way" ( home team is listed first)
Note 3: " ++ " means I really like the team at those handicaps or odds, and " + " means I like them enough to bet on them.
NCAAF:
MARSHALL VS UL LAFAYETTE : ++
UL Lafayette +10.5
CENTRAL FLORIDA VS TEMPLE: ++
Temple +23.5
WEST VIRGINIA VS BAYLOR: ++
West Virginia +3.5 (odds $1.88)
West Virginia ML (odds $2.45)
NFL:
CHICAGO BEARS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: +
Chicago Bears ML (odds $1.98)
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS: ++
Miami Dolphins +3.5
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: ++
Pittsburgh Steelers +8
Quote: ksdjdjBelow are the teams that I like (most of them are ATS so far this week).
Note 1: The odds were $1.90 (decimal) for all bets (unless stated otherwise)
Note 2: I just cut and pasted from the 'book that I am using, so that is why it is written the "VS way" ( home team is listed first)
Note 3: " ++ " means I really like the team at those handicaps or odds, and " + " means I like them enough to bet on them.
NCAAF:
MARSHALL VS UL LAFAYETTE : ++
UL Lafayette +10.5
CENTRAL FLORIDA VS TEMPLE: ++
Temple +23.5
WEST VIRGINIA VS BAYLOR: ++
West Virginia +3.5 (odds $1.88)
West Virginia ML (odds $2.45)
NFL:
CHICAGO BEARS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: +
Chicago Bears ML (odds $1.98)
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS: ++
Miami Dolphins +3.5
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: ++
Pittsburgh Steelers +8
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I see you like ULL over Marshall. Did you factor in the starting QB for ULL is out and their main RB might be out as well?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
UL Lafayette +10.5
(snip)
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I see you like ULL over Marshall. Did you factor in the starting QB for ULL is out and their main RB might be out as well?
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Yes, I like them as a " + + " bet*** .
***: Was tossing up whether to take the above or "+10.5 x U46.5" @ $3.50, but I think the one that I had was "better value" (at the time of the bet)
----
Update (about 955 pm, Pac Time):
Extra info:
I thought that ULL should have been no bigger than a +8 'dog for this game.
Note 2: I just cut and pasted from the 'book that I am using, so that is why it is written the "VS way" (usually the home team is first, when listed this way).
WESTERN MICHIGAN VS OHIO: +++
Western Michigan ML ($2.02 decimal odds)
