ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 4:40:49 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Ace2

Quote: ksdjdj


Akron +16.5 / Under 29.5 @ +250
Liberty -16.5 / Over 29.5 @ +250

Is that a WNBA game ?
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Come on Ace, the WNBA season wrapped up last week.
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My sarcasm / joke detector is in the shop. But I should have at least looked that up (about the WNBA season being over).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 6:37:08 PM permalink
Edit (about 1945, Pac Time, see strike-through, just below): Reason: Only 6/9 games would have had a + return (in my original working out, I used 7/9).

I just had a look and I would have roughly up to +35% 17% ROI today, if I had all my bets the "normal way, for me*** " .

***: Or my next likely ROI would have been about 19.5%, if I decided to just bet all available funds on the best odds for the NC State / Connecticut game (if I did it with "hedging bets### ").

###: See link >>> "offsetting_hedging"

if you don't really know what I mean by this.

Quote: SOOPOO


(snip)
BetMGM actually had a money line on Georgia -Kent State. I bet $1000 to win $10. Georgia is up TEN in the 4th quarter, and it could have been just EIGHT! They were 44.5 point favorites…. (snip)
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I would have taken $1.01 (-10,000) too.
The 'books I bet with generally stop offering ML options for the Fav' , when the spread is somewhere between 30 to 38.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 24, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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Mission146
September 24th, 2022 at 7:58:17 PM permalink
I didn't expect it to work, but for the BYU vs Wyoming game I wanted to see if I could get: the 1st Quarter, into 1st Half, and / or Game..

Because it wasn't allowed, I hope my HUGE $20 bet on Wyoming +21.5 / Under 50.5 @ +260 gets up ( since I have to turnover my deposit at least once, before I can withdraw) .
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Mission146
September 25th, 2022 at 5:05:06 AM permalink
_____________


Chiefs - moneyline -244 over Colts - a win gets 41% of the wager as profit

.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 25th, 2022 at 9:18:19 AM permalink
Possibly unprecedented? ALL 4 projected secondary starters (White, Jackson, Poyer, Hyde) out! Two major defensive linemen (Phillips, Oliver) out!

Not as newsworthy, but starting center (Morse) out!

Miami threw 6 TD passes last week! And now they face essentially the Bills second unit.

I am not confident in my Bills-4.5 bet…..
I am confident in my Bills over 52 bet…..

As a reminder, my selections as above tend to hit nearly 48% of the time….
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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September 25th, 2022 at 2:37:13 PM permalink
I'd be having a good day so far except for Kansas City not performing... not sure what's wrong there
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are seemingly endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically, don't you see. 
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:19:47 PM permalink
Go Jags.
I just need another 4+ points from the Jags so I can stop sweeting on that bet***.

***: Not a good deal compared to a lot of others mentioned on this site, but I get paid straight away on ML bets as soon as the team I back is up by 17^^^ or more.

^^^: From 2014 to 2021, teams have only lost about 1/55, when leading by 17 or more.

Also, I took the "worst price available to me" on them, when they were +166 (if I had waited 20 minutes, I could have received +220).

----
update (after Jags up by 31-10):
Great.
Going by the live odds with one 'book, the chance of the Jags losing now is somewhere between ~1/19 and ~1/10 (wishful thinking, but It would be great if the Chargers come back and win by 3).

----
Update 2 (last one for this game, I promise):
Going by the live odds with one 'book, the chance of the Jags losing now is somewhere between ~1/51 and ~1/21...
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 25, 2022
DRich
DRich
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ksdjdj
September 25th, 2022 at 3:28:50 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Go Jags.
I just need another 4+ points from the Jags so I can stop sweeting on that bet***.

***: Not a good deal compared to a lot of others mentioned on this site, but I get paid straight away on ML bets as soon as the team I back is up by 17^^^ or more.

^^^: From 2014 to 2021, teams have only lost about 1/55, when leading by 17 or more.

Also, I took the "worst price available to me" on them, when they were +166 (if I had waited 20 minutes, I could have received +220).
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Congrats, the Jags are crushing.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 25th, 2022 at 3:47:50 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
...so I can stop sweeting... (snip)
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(see bold)
I think most people know what I meant by that (at least it was the correct spelling of the wrong word^^^, lol).

^^^: Wasn't the first time this has happened to me, and probably won't be the last, either.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 25th, 2022 at 4:11:41 PM permalink
I thought Denver was "good value", so I had the ML @ +105, to win 4200.

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