Thread Rating:

DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11906
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
November 17th, 2022 at 10:41:38 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Wifey said she saw add for shovelers paying $20 an hour.



Is she hinting that you should go back to work?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 242
  • Posts: 14085
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 17th, 2022 at 2:14:52 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Did you guys see that Bronco's game last night? That was the most snow I remember seeing at a football game in years. This picture was from the start of of the game the snow was falling hard during the game.


link to original post



I saw parts of it. Few people cheer as loud as I did…. “Go under”!!!!

Weather forecast for Orchard Park shows heavy snow until Saturday. Clear Sunday. Just means that local officials will have to work hard for the fans to be able to get there. The field itself should be easily cleared. Unless forecast changes. Wifey said she saw add for shovelers paying $20 an hour.
link to original post



I heard the game was moved to Detroit.

$20? Back in the 1990s I think they got $5 and a free ticket.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 17th, 2022 at 5:17:41 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Did you guys see that Bronco's game last night? That was the most snow I remember seeing at a football game in years. This picture was from the start of of the game the snow was falling hard during the game.


link to original post



I saw parts of it. Few people cheer as loud as I did…. “Go under”!!!!

Weather forecast for Orchard Park shows heavy snow until Saturday. Clear Sunday. Just means that local officials will have to work hard for the fans to be able to get there. The field itself should be easily cleared. Unless forecast changes. Wifey said she saw add for shovelers paying $20 an hour.
link to original post



I heard the game was moved to Detroit.

$20? Back in the 1990s I think they got $5 and a free ticket.
link to original post

. Caesars has refunded my under bet. I’m very disappointed that the game was moved. The weather is supposed to be fine day of game. Just the area will still be plowing out. Oh well. I’ll be switching to betting the overs….
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11906
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
November 17th, 2022 at 5:20:19 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

. Caesars has refunded my under bet. I’m very disappointed that the game was moved. The weather is supposed to be fine day of game. Just the area will still be plowing out. Oh well. I’ll be switching to betting the overs….
link to original post



They were probably worried the Cleveland team would not be able to get in on Saturday morning.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
JackSpade
JackSpade
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 233
Joined: Aug 26, 2022
November 19th, 2022 at 5:24:12 PM permalink
At one point late in the game, TCU had a 92% chance of losing to Baylor (according to ESPN Analytics) and came back to win again.

TCU was a 67% underdog vs Oklahoma,
had a 68% chance of losing to Kansas midway into the game,
had a 96% chance in the 4th quarter of losing to Oklahoma State,
had a 91% chance mid game of losing to Kansas State,
had a 61% chance in the 2nd quarter of losing to West Virginia,
had a 64% chance in the 3rd of losing to Texas Tech,
and had a 75% chance early on of losing to Texas.

What are the odds that TCU would win 8 out of these 8 games?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 19th, 2022 at 6:25:47 PM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

At one point late in the game, TCU had a 92% chance of losing to Baylor (according to ESPN Analytics) and came back to win again.

TCU was a 67% underdog vs Oklahoma,
had a 68% chance of losing to Kansas midway into the game,
had a 96% chance in the 4th quarter of losing to Oklahoma State,
had a 91% chance mid game of losing to Kansas State,
had a 61% chance in the 2nd quarter of losing to West Virginia,
had a 64% chance in the 3rd of losing to Texas Tech,
and had a 75% chance early on of losing to Texas.

What are the odds that TCU would win 8 out of these 8 games?
link to original post

. 100%!
But seriously, I don’t want to do the math, but 10,000-1 against from the low point of each game?

I was watching. When Baylor had the ball their coach went into usual college football Cro Magnon mode. Running the ball into the defenders forcing TCU to use their timeouts but getting the ball back only needing a field goal, with a full minute and a half remaining. At least one of the announcers called out the Baylor head coach.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4658
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
November 19th, 2022 at 9:29:28 PM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

At one point late in the game, TCU had a 92% chance of losing to Baylor (according to ESPN Analytics) and came back to win again.

TCU was a 67% underdog vs Oklahoma,
had a 68% chance of losing to Kansas midway into the game,
had a 96% chance in the 4th quarter of losing to Oklahoma State,
had a 91% chance mid game of losing to Kansas State,
had a 61% chance in the 2nd quarter of losing to West Virginia,
had a 64% chance in the 3rd of losing to Texas Tech,
and had a 75% chance early on of losing to Texas.

What are the odds that TCU would win 8 out of these 8 games?
link to original post



Imagine what would happen if TCU played a good team.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
November 19th, 2022 at 9:57:38 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

"Mattress Mack" cashed in 75 million on the World Series, including $30 million from Ceasars. Has anyone ever hit casinos that hard over as sports bet?
link to original post



According to an article in the Review Journal, NO this is the biggest legal sports betting outcome.
link to original post



How does Caesars handle a 30 million dollar loss? Is it a hiccup or does the sports book not show a profit for the quarter? Year?
link to original post

Penn Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden on the company's Nov. 3 earnings call similarly warned about the company's profitability in light of McIngvale's bet via Penn's sportsbook Barstool — and urged listeners to root for the Philadelphia Phillies instead. "I think if Mattress Mack doesn't hit, we'll be profitable in Q4," Snowden said then. "If he does, then it'll probably be closer to break-evenish."

Penn paid out $10 million. I’ve never heard of Penn and I’m only guessing Caesars is a significantly larger operation
It’s all about making that GTA
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 242
  • Posts: 14085
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 20th, 2022 at 5:16:00 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

. Caesars has refunded my under bet. I’m very disappointed that the game was moved. The weather is supposed to be fine day of game. Just the area will still be plowing out. Oh well. I’ll be switching to betting the overs….
link to original post



They were probably worried the Cleveland team would not be able to get in on Saturday morning.
link to original post



Looking at snow depth maps while computers down at work. Did they like just decide to build the stadium at the biggest snowfall point?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 20th, 2022 at 6:06:27 AM permalink
I'd imagine there was a reason why the land was vacant and cheap. Just like when Wynn was able to scoop up the land for the Mirage dirt cheap since no one else wanted to build next to a volcano.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 20th, 2022 at 6:34:41 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I'd imagine there was a reason why the land was vacant and cheap. Just like when Wynn was able to scoop up the land for the Mirage dirt cheap since no one else wanted to build next to a volcano.
link to original post



Today Orchard Park is an upscale suburb with many neighborhoods with houses approaching $1million. By Buffalo standards, that’s expensive. No idea how much land cost 50+ years ago when it was procured for the stadium.

The way the weather is here…. Where I live, slightly north of Buffalo, the way the winds blow off the lake I get, these are the rounded numbers we use…. 50 inches of snow a year, Orchard Park south of me gets 100, and just go a little south of OP and you get 150 inches. That area is known as ‘Ski Country’’.

I’m looking out my window. Maybe got a total of two feet but spread over three days. Road on my cul de sac is totally plowed. If stadium was up here there would be no issue.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11906
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
November 20th, 2022 at 6:52:56 AM permalink
I really like Hawaii last night but I am ashamed to say I fell asleeo and didn't get to follow it. It sounds like it was a good game but Hawaii and the points was a winner all game.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 20th, 2022 at 7:02:20 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: billryan

I'd imagine there was a reason why the land was vacant and cheap. Just like when Wynn was able to scoop up the land for the Mirage dirt cheap since no one else wanted to build next to a volcano.
link to original post



Today Orchard Park is an upscale suburb with many neighborhoods with houses approaching $1million. By Buffalo standards, that’s expensive. No idea how much land cost 50+ years ago when it was procured for the stadium.

The way the weather is here…. Where I live, slightly north of Buffalo, the way the winds blow off the lake I get, these are the rounded numbers we use…. 50 inches of snow a year, Orchard Park south of me gets 100, and just go a little south of OP and you get 150 inches. That area is known as ‘Ski Country’’.

I’m looking out my window. Maybe got a total of two feet but spread over three days. Road on my cul de sac is totally plowed. If stadium was up here there would be no issue.
link to original post



The last time I was in the Stadium was in the fall of 1981, for The Stones concert. At the time, the stadium was in the middle of no-where.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 529
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
November 20th, 2022 at 8:24:34 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Penn paid out $10 million. I’ve never heard of Penn and I’m only guessing Caesars is a significantly larger operation
link to original post


If you think of Wynn or Sands as kind of like Neiman-Marcus (i.e., upscale with only a few locations) and Caesars or MGM as Macy's, then Penn is more like K-Mart. Lot's of regional casinos with a focus on slots and a mainly older female demographic. Their deal with Barstool is an attempt to expand the market. As a matter of fact, today's NY Times has an article specifically about Penn and Barstool (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/20/business/barstool-sports-betting-david-portnoy.html). The Penn-Barstool story is part of a set covering NYT's investigation of on-line sports betting. The other stories are:

Anyone living in the vicinity of Kansas City should check out the one about the lobbying. There's a section about some shady real estate dealings tied to the legalization of sports betting in Kansas:
Quote: NYT


The most likely site for the new stadium — envisioned as a possible future home for the Kansas City Chiefs football team, currently located across the Missouri border — was an area west of Kansas City.

The location was already a sports and entertainment hub. Sporting Kansas City’s stadium was there. So were the NASCAR racetrack and the Hollywood Casino.

Another 400 acres of land there were controlled by a company called Homefield LLC, whose owners included executives with Sporting Kansas City, according to property and corporate records. Those executives were drawing up plans to use the 400 acres for a sports and hotel complex.

Just before the 2020 election, Homefield and a network of related companies routed tens of thousands of dollars in contributions to Mr. Ryckman and other legislative leaders, according to campaign disclosures and corporate records. The sums were especially impressive in a state where House lawmakers can take no more than $500 in the general election from any one donor.

My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 242
  • Posts: 14085
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 20th, 2022 at 2:59:15 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: billryan

I'd imagine there was a reason why the land was vacant and cheap. Just like when Wynn was able to scoop up the land for the Mirage dirt cheap since no one else wanted to build next to a volcano.
link to original post



Today Orchard Park is an upscale suburb with many neighborhoods with houses approaching $1million. By Buffalo standards, that’s expensive. No idea how much land cost 50+ years ago when it was procured for the stadium.



Probably dirt cheap. Back then the idea was put the stadium way out where you can charge for parking. Nobody wanted to live that far out back then, not that it is far out by standards of most cities. The McMansion would not be a thing for 25 years.

I have to think back to the Indians the place had a reputation for snow that kept people from settling.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
November 21st, 2022 at 5:03:50 PM permalink
Just had a $400 bonus bet on the 49ers' under 16.5 @ +500.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 21st, 2022 at 7:01:37 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Just had a $400 bonus bet on the 49ers' under 16.5 @ +500.
link to original post



That didn’t go well….. I have a bunch of parlays ready to hit in McCaffrey gets a TD. If not, back to the poor house!

It seems like you get thousands of these bonus bets every week…..
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11906
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
November 22nd, 2022 at 4:26:38 PM permalink
I am not much of a soccer fan but I did record and watch that Argentina game. Wow, they had three goals overturned for offsides and lost 2-1. I don't think I have ever seen three goals reversed before.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 22nd, 2022 at 7:15:02 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am not much of a soccer fan but I did record and watch that Argentina game. Wow, they had three goals overturned for offsides and lost 2-1. I don't think I have ever seen three goals reversed before.
link to original post



It is the overriding weakness of soccer (to me!). Defenders intentionally run away from the person they are supposed to be defending so that that player has no one between him and the goalie. The stupidest rule in practice of any sport.
I understand that at some point a century ago they didn’t want players ‘goal hanging’, and that’s what offsides was designed to stop. But it is now an overriding strategy to ‘put’ the offensive player offsides.

That being said, I had Saudi Arabia to outscore Argentina, Denmark, Tunisia, Mexico and Poland combined at 1,000,000 - 1. I just forgot to push the button to finish the bet…
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
November 24th, 2022 at 1:13:45 PM permalink
$600 in bonus bets on the Giants @ +400

----
Other:
I don't know why I am still getting these good bonus bet offers, but they seem to come when I win.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 24th, 2022 at 9:14:41 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

$600 in bonus bets on the Giants @ +400

----
Other:
I don't know why I am still getting these good bonus bet offers, but they seem to come when I win.
link to original post



I must be a guppy. I’m getting around $5 a day from MGM by having my stick figure shoot past goalie Tim Howard. I’ve hit my last TWELVE college bball picks. They can’t be shorter than -300, so probably average -220 or so. They work great in parlays when you get a bonus for each leg added. One was a 7 legger, the other 5.
DK and MGM giving plus odds on US to not get shutout tomorrow. The other 3 giving plus odds on the US to get shutout tomorrow. It puts food on the table.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 2967
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
November 25th, 2022 at 10:56:38 AM permalink
I'm not sure how to find the best US odds but I was intrigued by any differences between the UK and US.

I could see (with 5 mins to kick off via oddschecker) the best UK odds were
Eng 1/2
US 15/2
Draw 7/2

Whereas US (I can't find the best odds but found this)
Eng 8/15 (-188)
US 11/2 (+550)
Draw 10/3 (+333)

So it does look as if they're cutting the odds for the country you're in!!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 25th, 2022 at 1:38:26 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I'm not sure how to find the best US odds but I was intrigued by any differences between the UK and US.

I could see (with 5 mins to kick off via oddschecker) the best UK odds were
Eng 1/2
US 15/2
Draw 7/2

Whereas US (I can't find the best odds but found this)
Eng 8/15 (-188)
US 11/2 (+550)
Draw 10/3 (+333)

So it does look as if they're cutting the odds for the country you're in!!
link to original post



Not sure where you were looking. I had +675 on US right before kickoff. I had so many +EV offers the only way I could not make money was a nil nil draw…….
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 2967
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
November 25th, 2022 at 2:08:06 PM permalink
Sorry - yes bookies love a draw since fewer people make that bet. I tried to google Las Vegas best prices but I didn't find an "oddschecker" for Las Vegas, hence probably the price I saw was just one bookie. Thanks for the +675 info as it also shows they narrowed the odds (from +750 one could get in the UK).
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
  • Threads: 91
  • Posts: 1378
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
November 25th, 2022 at 11:21:58 PM permalink
I haven't made sports bets in a long time, but I couldn't believe that my own Oregon men's basketball team was only +4 against #20 Connecticut on Thursday.

Oregon had only two healthy guards, and their 3-point shooting has been atrocious. UConn was undefeated and looking good in the paint. The game was in Portland, so though the Ducks had the fans on their side, they didn't have true home court advantage. I kept thinking "is there something I'm missing about this matchup?!" I could see Oregon losing by 10.

So I put down $105 (-105) on UConn and easily won 100 bucks when the Ducks lost by 24!
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 242
  • Posts: 14085
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
smoothgrh
November 26th, 2022 at 3:12:02 AM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

I haven't made sports bets in a long time, but I couldn't believe that my own Oregon men's basketball team was only +4 against #20 Connecticut on Thursday.

Oregon had only two healthy guards, and their 3-point shooting has been atrocious. UConn was undefeated and looking good in the paint. The game was in Portland, so though the Ducks had the fans on their side, they didn't have true home court advantage. I kept thinking "is there something I'm missing about this matchup?!" I could see Oregon losing by 10.

So I put down $105 (-105) on UConn and easily won 100 bucks when the Ducks lost by 24!
link to original post



That is how you do it. Know more about a less followed school than the bookie does.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
November 26th, 2022 at 1:45:07 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Sorry - yes bookies love a draw since fewer people make that bet. (snip)
link to original post


Thanks for posting this, I had "forgotten about the value of betting on the draw" (I used to bet a lot on Soccer for the Draw###, and NHL going to OT).

###: Edit about 1630, Pac Time.

Anyway, I had the following bonus bets on the World Cup (all for the Draw):

Wales v England $500 @ $4.6
Brazil v Switzerland $700 @ $4.4
Japan v Costa Rica $400 @ $4.4
Netherlands v Qatar $500 @ $8***

***: If I could have all the above bonuses on one, it would be this one (not just because it was the biggest odds, but also because Pinnacle had the Draw @ ~$7.18^^^, at the time I had the bet).

^^^: I think the market was about 103%, so if I was just going by "Pinnacles' prices", then the fair odds for the draw should have been about $7.40.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 26, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
November 26th, 2022 at 2:04:02 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

$600 in bonus bets on the Giants @ +400

----
Other:
I don't know why I am still getting these good bonus bet offers, but they seem to come when I win.
link to original post



I must be a guppy. I’m getting around $5 a day from MGM by having my stick figure shoot past goalie Tim Howard. I’ve hit my last TWELVE college bball picks. They can’t be shorter than -300, so probably average -220 or so. They work great in parlays when you get a bonus for each leg added. One was a 7 legger, the other 5.
DK and MGM giving plus odds on US to not get shutout tomorrow. The other 3 giving plus odds on the US to get shutout tomorrow. It puts food on the table.
link to original post


I don't know exactly how they are working it out, but I seem to be getting a bit less than "4.5% x total return of a winning bet^^^ (every two winning bets) ".

^^^: Recently I had $10,000 on Fresno State Bulldogs @ $1.16, and got $500 in bonus bets (and I had a similar bet that won, before that game).

Also, I am "testing my theory out*** ", by having $11,000 on the Chiefs @ $1.08, and $10,000 on the Dolphins @ $1.125.

***: If these bets win, and if I get a $500 bonus, then I think I have a pretty good idea of what my average bonus is (it will probably be around 4.5% per "two winning bets", so 2.25% per "winning bet").
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
ksdjdj
November 26th, 2022 at 7:36:56 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

$600 in bonus bets on the Giants @ +400

----
Other:
I don't know why I am still getting these good bonus bet offers, but they seem to come when I win.
link to original post



I must be a guppy. I’m getting around $5 a day from MGM by having my stick figure shoot past goalie Tim Howard. I’ve hit my last TWELVE college bball picks. They can’t be shorter than -300, so probably average -220 or so. They work great in parlays when you get a bonus for each leg added. One was a 7 legger, the other 5.
DK and MGM giving plus odds on US to not get shutout tomorrow. The other 3 giving plus odds on the US to get shutout tomorrow. It puts food on the table.
link to original post


I don't know exactly how they are working it out, but I seem to be getting a bit less than "4.5% x total return of a winning bet^^^ (every two winning bets) ".

^^^: Recently I had $10,000 on Fresno State Bulldogs @ $1.16, and got $500 in bonus bets (and I had a similar bet that won, before that game).

Also, I am "testing my theory out*** ", by having $11,000 on the Chiefs @ $1.08, and $10,000 on the Dolphins @ $1.125.

***: If these bets win, and if I get a $500 bonus, then I think I have a pretty good idea of what my average bonus is (it will probably be around 4.5% per "two winning bets", so 2.25% per "winning bet").
link to original post



You must have either a lot of faith in what you are doing or a LOT of money to risk if you are betting $21k to ‘test my theory out’!’

Whenever I worry if the books will somehow care about my $50 bet with a slight advantage I’ll remember your bets! I had ‘alternative line’ boost available for an NBA game. Betting on the other side on a different book gave me either $6 or $2 win. Total bet was over $200. I’m guessing they aren’t worrying….
(I won $6).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
November 27th, 2022 at 9:48:31 PM permalink
Put some "feeler bets" out for next week, mainly because I think there is a "good chance the line will move in my favor" (see below):

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: $500 on the Bengals +3.0 @ $1.85
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants: $500 on the Commanders -1.5 @ $1.90

Note: I haven't done any work on these games, and the bets are just based on the public lines available with other 'books that I "trust to have it correct (more often than not) ".
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 234
  • Posts: 6717
Joined: May 8, 2015
November 28th, 2022 at 5:10:12 AM permalink
_______________


online sports betting just became legal in Maryland where I live

the FanDuel promo - bet $5 and get $200 in free bets - they don't return your free bet stake into your winnings

iow if you bet $200 on an even money bet with your free bet stake and you win - only $200 is sent to your account - not $400

is that the usual way it's done____? - I'm not sure but I think not - I think in this example $400 would usually be credited to your account at other books - I may be mistaken - not sure

is this sneakiness on the part of FanDuel________?__________or is it me who is remembering wrong - it's been a long time since I used one of these types of promos on an online overseas book which was technically not legal in my State



https://support.fanduel.com/s/article/Free-Bets


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 28th, 2022 at 8:04:50 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

_______________


online sports betting just became legal in Maryland where I live

the FanDuel promo - bet $5 and get $200 in free bets - they don't return your free bet stake into your winnings

iow if you bet $200 on an even money bet with your free bet stake and you win - only $200 is sent to your account - not $400

is that the usual way it's done____? - I'm not sure but I think not - I think in this example $400 would usually be credited to your account at other books - I may be mistaken - not sure

is this sneakiness on the part of FanDuel________?__________or is it me who is remembering wrong - it's been a long time since I used one of these types of promos on an online overseas book which was technically not legal in my State



https://support.fanduel.com/s/article/Free-Bets


.
link to original post



The five (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings) that I use all treat a ‘free bet’ that way. That is why, if you are interested in maximizing your EV, betting long shots is better than betting favorites, with these free bets.
Sneakiness? Maybe a little. They DO make it clear that you don’t get the ‘stake’ back.

I think a different promo is more ‘sneaky’. They call it a ‘risk free’ bet. You bet your own real money and if you win it was like there was no offer. You keep your ‘stake’ and your winnings. But if you lose you get back the equivalent dollar figure in a ‘free bet’. Which is NOT worth as much as your initial stake. Hence to me, the term ‘risk free’ is a LIE.

That being said, the ‘risk free’ first bet can be quite valuable.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 28th, 2022 at 8:09:51 AM permalink
My ‘free bet’ today is a 3 leg parlay. Brazil, Portugal, and the Vegas Golden Knights. It is always a big risk betting on a soccer team to win. They actually have to score! First few minutes of Brazil game. Looks like Switzerland is not afraid of big bad Brazil.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 30th, 2022 at 7:47:20 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

My ‘free bet’ today is a 3 leg parlay. Brazil, Portugal, and the Vegas Golden Knights. It is always a big risk betting on a soccer team to win. They actually have to score! First few minutes of Brazil game. Looks like Switzerland is not afraid of big bad Brazil.
link to original post



All 3 won. Hooray.

I have a bunch of bets hinging on France winning against Tunisia today. Tunisia has scored zero goals so far in its first two games. Buttttttt….. France has already clinched advancement to next round….. They are not playing any of their top players. Tunisia still hasn’t scored late into first half but their ‘A’ team looks way better than the France ‘B’ team.
I may make a bet on Tunisia at halftime. (That would guarantee a draw…)

Edit. Just got 21-1 on both games ending scoreless.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 30th, 2022 at 12:58:34 PM permalink
Do DraftKings or any other books give you a year-end summary, and do they share it with the IRS?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 30th, 2022 at 2:14:26 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Do DraftKings or any other books give you a year-end summary, and do they share it with the IRS?
link to original post



I can get a year to date summary right now. Just a few clicks. I am not sure if they will formally send me and/or the IRS anything. I will let you know as soon as I know!
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
November 30th, 2022 at 2:18:57 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: billryan

Do DraftKings or any other books give you a year-end summary, and do they share it with the IRS?
link to original post



I can get a year to date summary right now. Just a few clicks. I am not sure if they will formally send me and/or the IRS anything. I will let you know as soon as I know!
link to original post



I appreciate that.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
December 1st, 2022 at 12:05:48 PM permalink
I just had a $1000 on the Colts' +3.5 @ +250.

Note 1: I could have gotten +260, 12 hours ago, but originally I wanted to wait until todays' bets were resolved (also, I thought the odds may get bigger).

Note 2: I think the Colts' should be about +10 at the "50/50" line, so doesn't quite make the "graded bet" criteria.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
December 2nd, 2022 at 9:39:57 AM permalink
Due to offers I have USC -2.5 at +117 and Utah +3 at -115. I can either win $1 or $50. Something like that. I’m picturing Utah kicking that FG in OT then USC scoring the game winning TD. I had a bunch of parlays including Bills -3.5….. but none hit. I needed Allen to score a TD and he got tackled at the 1 yard line….

Go Brazil shutout and over 8.5 corner kicks!
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11906
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
December 2nd, 2022 at 5:18:12 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Due to offers I have USC -2.5 at +117 and Utah +3 at -115. I can either win $1 or $50. Something like that. I’m picturing Utah kicking that FG in OT then USC scoring the game winning TD. I had a bunch of parlays including Bills -3.5….. but none hit. I needed Allen to score a TD and he got tackled at the 1 yard line….

Go Brazil shutout and over 8.5 corner kicks!
link to original post



Wow, over 8.5 corner kicks? Is that about an average number for a soccer game?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
December 2nd, 2022 at 7:14:39 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Due to offers I have USC -2.5 at +117 and Utah +3 at -115. I can either win $1 or $50. Something like that. I’m picturing Utah kicking that FG in OT then USC scoring the game winning TD. I had a bunch of parlays including Bills -3.5….. but none hit. I needed Allen to score a TD and he got tackled at the 1 yard line….

Go Brazil shutout and over 8.5 corner kicks!
link to original post



Wow, over 8.5 corner kicks? Is that about an average number for a soccer game?
link to original post



The fair money line for this game was 9.5. I laid 3-2 on that easily won bet. I feel like the fool again. Brazil played their B team. They were still better than Cameroon despite losing. But not as better had they been if anyone of their regular starters played.
As the game was winding down it was clear Cameroon needed to win by 2 to have a chance to advance. The rocket scientist that scored the goal for Cameroon with around 7 minutes to go took his Jersey off, you know, to show how smart and manly he is. But doing that gets you a yellow card. Combined with his earlier yellow card that makes a red card and an ejection. His team had to play short handed the final 7 minutes and didn’t get a sniff of that second goal. The selfishness of some athletes knows no bounds.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
December 3rd, 2022 at 11:52:45 AM permalink
Looks' like I won't get much on anymore, for the "good alt spreads" (as they now cut me to $100) so below is likely the last game for that:

I have even stakes on Green Bay @ -12.5, -13.5, -15.5, -16.5 and -18.5 (if they win by 19+, I collect $8,200+)

I have most of my money on Chicago @ -5.5 and smaller bets (same stake) @ -3.5, -4.5, -6.5, 7.5, and -8.5 (if they win by 9+, I collect $7,600+)

If the result is either G B win by 12 (or less), or Chicago win by 3*** or less (***realistically 5 or less ) I will have a bad game, as I bet $3,000 in total.

----
Extra:
Bet a bit more than I normally do, because I think this will be the last time I can get these good alt spreads (for decent money, at least).

----
Other Comments:

Going by ESPN game-cast, it looks like my "interest bet" on TCU is going to lose (TCU down by 11) but there is still over 11 minutes of game to go.

Update (after score is 28-28): Just signed up to a free trial, so that I can watch a few more college games. Hopefully get to see my first live overtime game.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 3, 2022
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
ksdjdj
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:27:23 PM permalink
Was listening to one of those sports betting shows…. The analyst said Ohio is missing QB that led them to good record. Will have trouble scoring. So I had DraftKing parlay boost. Toledo-3.5/under 55.5. Toledo 17, Ohio 7.

Need Fresno State under 54.5 to finish 4 leg boosted parlay. Go defense!
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:08:13 PM permalink
Just with two 'books, the live total are 4 pts different, ATM:

Book A: 64.5 , O -115 and U -115
Book B: 68.5, O -114 and U -116

Note 1: These are just rough conversions, as both 'books are Australian and showed "Decimal odds".
Note 2: Correct at the time of this post (obviously subject to change, since they are "live odds"),

-----
Questions:

Will Georgia eventually "step off the gas if they get a big enough lead", or will they want to try to "keep piling on the points " ?

Besides the obvious (Georgia lose "somehow" and Michigan win) what are the other ways (if any) for Georgia to lose the top spot ?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
ksdjdj
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:49:27 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Just with two 'books, the live total are 4 pts different, ATM:

Book A: 64.5 , O -115 and U -115
Book B: 68.5, O -114 and U -116

Note 1: These are just rough conversions, as both 'books are Australian and showed "Decimal odds".
Note 2: Correct at the time of this post (obviously subject to change, since they are "live odds"),

-----
Questions:

Will Georgia eventually "step off the gas if they get a big enough lead", or will they want to try to "keep piling on the points " ?

Besides the obvious (Georgia lose "somehow" and Michigan win) what are the other ways (if any) for Georgia to lose the top spot ?
link to original post



Georgia with a win is number one. With a loss they would be behind Michigan if Michigan stays undefeated. This was written after TCU lost, so they are out of the picture for the number one spot.
This year, the difference between the number one and number two seed is not very significant. Unfortunately it’s looking like Michigan will be 2 and Ohio State will be 3, so they will be playing each other Georgia will play number 4 (Alabama or TCU….?)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
December 4th, 2022 at 12:25:08 AM permalink
I like the Jets enough to back them at the good "alt spreads" below:

-5.5 @ +330 (40% of total bet)
-6.5 @ +365 (40%... )
-7.5 @ +450 (20%...)

----
Comments:
The "50/50" line of +2.5 to +3.0 in this game for the Jets, is probably about right for this match up.

I think the Vikings' are lucky to be 9-2, and at a bare minimum I think the teams' ^^^ below are better*** , atm:

^^^: Only picked teams' with a season "win-loss" record equal to or worse than the Vikings'.

***: I still think this, even if the Vikings' have played and/or beaten any of these teams, earlier this season.

Note: They are not listed in any special order

Cowboys' , Bengals', Chiefs', Bills', 49ers', Dolphins' (maybe even the Titans', Ravens', and Seahawks' ? ).
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11096
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
December 4th, 2022 at 8:23:39 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I like the Jets enough to back them at the good "alt spreads" below:

-5.5 @ +330 (40% of total bet)
-6.5 @ +365 (40%... )
-7.5 @ +450 (20%...)

----
Comments:
The "50/50" line of +2.5 to +3.0 in this game for the Jets, is probably about right for this match up.

I think the Vikings' are lucky to be 9-2, and at a bare minimum I think the teams' ^^^ below are better*** , atm:

^^^: Only picked teams' with a season "win-loss" record equal to or worse than the Vikings'.

***: I still think this, even if the Vikings' have played and/or beaten any of these teams, earlier this season.

Note: They are not listed in any special order

Cowboys' , Bengals', Chiefs', Bills', 49ers', Dolphins' (maybe even the Titans', Ravens', and Seahawks' ? ).
link to original post



If you need more proof, I have the Vikings in a bunch of my bets today. That generally means a Jets win. The Vikings looked even with the Bills. The Bills will be 7+ faves over the Jets next week. (I think?).
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11906
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
Thanked by
ksdjdj
December 4th, 2022 at 9:35:32 AM permalink
First lines I see are Georgia -7 vs Ohio State and Michigan -9.5 vs TCU.

With those numbers I like Georgia and TCU
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
December 4th, 2022 at 11:27:53 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Comments:
The "50/50" line of +2.5 to +3.0 in this game for the Jets, is probably about right for this match up.

I think the Vikings' are lucky to be 9-2, and at a bare minimum I think the teams' ^^^ below are better*** , atm:
(snip)
link to original post



If you need more proof, I have the Vikings in a bunch of my bets today. That generally means a Jets win. The Vikings looked even with the Bills. The Bills will be 7+ faves over the Jets next week. (I think?).
link to original post


I think the Vikings' heard me "talking smack about them" as they are "slaughtering the Jets" atm .
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
  • Threads: 94
  • Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
December 4th, 2022 at 12:24:16 PM permalink
I like^^^ the Chargers enough to back them at the good "alt spreads" below:

^^^: I think they should be between 0 and +1

-6.5 @ +305 (1/3 of total bet)
-7.5 @ +390 (1/3... )
-8.5 @ +450 (1/3...)
  • Jump to: