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DRich
DRich
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February 18th, 2023 at 2:16:04 PM permalink
I hope everyone is watching todays professional football games. The Las Vegas game is on as I type this. I like the idea of being able to go for a 3 point conversion after a touchdown. It should give some teams a better chance to make a comeback and keep them more interesting.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
DRich
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February 18th, 2023 at 3:46:22 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

A whole slew of various + EV bets on Kansas /Baylor game. In summary, the only way I can lose is if Kansas wins by exactly 4.
I win the most if they win by exactly 5. All other results I win a small amount.

Today Alabama/Arizona/Providence parlay at + odds. Should be slight - odds. I hedged a small bit on Villanova +3.5 over Providence. So rooting for pProvidence 70, Villanova 69.
link to original post



That was quite a second half by Kansas. Losing by 13 and then winning by 17. A dominant performance.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 18th, 2023 at 7:25:58 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

A whole slew of various + EV bets on Kansas /Baylor game. In summary, the only way I can lose is if Kansas wins by exactly 4.
I win the most if they win by exactly 5. All other results I win a small amount.

Today Alabama/Arizona/Providence parlay at + odds. Should be slight - odds. I hedged a small bit on Villanova +3.5 over Providence. So rooting for pProvidence 70, Villanova 69.
link to original post



That was quite a second half by Kansas. Losing by 13 and then winning by 17. A dominant performance.
link to original post



Yeah. I won a little. The other parlay hit easily. I think Alabama had a 50 point lead when I first checked. The other two were double digit wins.

I have a 5 team parlay (with profit boost) alive needing my Sabres to win tonight (slight faves).
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 19th, 2023 at 3:23:56 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

A whole slew of various + EV bets on Kansas /Baylor game. In summary, the only way I can lose is if Kansas wins by exactly 4.
I win the most if they win by exactly 5. All other results I win a small amount.



I want to thank you
you've really educated me
I've always been a straight up spread or total bettor - never really even looked at props

I had no idea that prop bets could be constructed this way so that a person is almost sure to win something

if you were betting big and you made only + EV bets do you think they would rain on your parade - limit you____?_______thanks - I'm thinking the answer is almost surely YES

I think I see what the books are doing now

I think these kinds of bets are teasers

they will allow bettors to pad their accounts with them but only if these bettors are not consistent long term winners and winning fairly big - correct______?


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 19th, 2023 at 3:41:07 AM permalink
I've got some questions for you, Soopoo, and I'm honestly just curious

you posted I believe, 5 figures total to the positive with your online sports betting, congratulations!

how many W2g's did you get?

I assume though your experience overall, after taxes, was still +EV. How close a call is it?

do you attribute your success to playing off one online site against another?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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February 19th, 2023 at 10:04:32 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I've got some questions for you, Soopoo, and I'm honestly just curious

you posted I believe, 5 figures total to the positive with your online sports betting, congratulations!

how many W2g's did you get?

I assume though your experience overall, after taxes, was still +EV. How close a call is it?

do you attribute your success to playing off one online site against another?
link to original post



No W2 G’s. None of my bets are that large (after the initial ‘risk free’ bets). And none are at that extreme odds.

As far as taxes, all they do is reduce how much I make. I’ll give a hypothetical. If I made $30k and have to pay 20% in taxes on that it just means I cleared $24k. If I made $15k I would have cleared $12k.

Answering the previous post…. I think I am being throttled back. I’m certainly getting either fewer or smaller +EV opportunities.

As far as ‘playing one side against the other’, I do do that sometimes. But understand, real APs like Axel and Wiz, would frown upon that! I’ll give a simple example. I had an opportunity to pick ‘team to score first in the super bowl’ boosted to +150. So my $10 bet will pay out a total of $25. The +EV was $5.
But I could bet on another site at the prevailing rate (which for even bets is -110) on the other team. So I could bet $13 to win $12 (rounded) for a payout of $25. So if you notice I win $2 NO MATTER WHAT. But Wiz and Axel will chastise me for turning $5 in EV into $2. I do believe that it is important that I make the negative EV hedge bets for longevity. The site I make the -EV bet just sees it as a typical loser bet.
AitchTheLetter
AitchTheLetter
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February 19th, 2023 at 3:40:27 PM permalink
I'm not big into sportsbetting. When it got made legal in my state back in September of last year I made $250 off my free bets for signing up on Draft Kings and that was about it. With baseball season starting up I did see that my team, the KC Royals are currently at +20,000 to win the World Series outright. I know it is a long shot and very unlikely but I felt like throwing $10 on them for no reason other than I hope they figure something Cinderella-esque out and have an amazing season. That said I really don't expect them to hit 70 wins on the season.
Aut inveniam viam aut faciam
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 20th, 2023 at 4:26:47 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

No W2 G’s.

Astonishing. From what I can glean, there's no way in VA that kind of success would not get W2s ... assuming the terms and conditions I read mean something. Currently, I am bombarded with 'sticky' messaging urging me to be informed about possible W2s [that I didn't get]. It seems to be that only this time of year would you get them, and the terms and cond. say it is a cumulative $600

Quote:

None of my bets are that large (after the initial ‘risk free’ bets). And none are at that extreme odds.

Being a cumulative thing in VA, that wouldn't matter

As far as taxes, all they do is reduce how much I make. I’ll give a hypothetical. If I made $30k and have to pay 20% in taxes on that it just means I cleared $24k. If I made $15k I would have cleared $12k.

I'm impressed that you pay your taxes on this, considering the below

Quote:

Answering the previous post…. I think I am being throttled back. I’m certainly getting either fewer or smaller +EV opportunities.

I am getting no more of the misnamed 'free bets' type offers, only odds-boost offers on parlay bets. I figure the boost gets it something close to a fair bet, with high variance

Quote:

As far as ‘playing one side against the other’, I do do that sometimes. But understand, real APs like Axel and Wiz, would frown upon that! I’ll give a simple example. I had an opportunity to pick ‘team to score first in the super bowl’ boosted to +150. So my $10 bet will pay out a total of $25. The +EV was $5.
But I could bet on another site at the prevailing rate (which for even bets is -110) on the other team. So I could bet $13 to win $12 (rounded) for a payout of $25. So if you notice I win $2 NO MATTER WHAT. But Wiz and Axel will chastise me for turning $5 in EV into $2. I do believe that it is important that I make the negative EV hedge bets for longevity. The site I make the -EV bet just sees it as a typical loser bet.

If you are still +EV I think you are incorrect to say you'd get disapproval. I would call that arbitrage, not hedging.
link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
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February 20th, 2023 at 5:12:36 AM permalink
______________



I am not endorsing this business - I am just stating what I know about it - it is new and there are probably things I don't know about it -


a type of book called a betting exchange has been legalized in New Jersey - it is called Prophet Sports Betting Exchange
it is similar to parimutuel wagering
players bet against each other - it's called peer to peer wagering - the house takes only 2% from the winning bets - much less than the 10% from the traditional books
this means the vig is only about 1% - lower than the lowest HA in any casino game

this may be the wave of the future - I'm not sure about that - but there is no reason to limit any player since he's betting directly against other players

the downside is they must match wagers within the same state - not all over the country - so, in the beginning there may not be a great deal of liquidity and a player may not be able to get the bets he wants

very, very interesting - to me anyway




https://prophetbettingexchange.com/education/



.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
DRich
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February 20th, 2023 at 5:30:48 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

______________



I am not endorsing this business - I am just stating what I know about it - it is new and there are probably things I don't know about it -


a type of book called a betting exchange has been legalized in New Jersey - it is called Prophet Sports Betting Exchange
it is similar to parimutuel wagering
players bet against each other - it's called peer to peer wagering - the house takes only 2% from the winning bets - much less than the 10% from the traditional books
this means the vig is only about 1% - lower than the lowest HA in any casino game

this may be the wave of the future - I'm not sure about that - but there is no reason to limit any player since he's betting directly against other players

the downside is they must match wagers within the same state - not all over the country - so, in the beginning there may not be a great deal of liquidity and a player may not be able to get the bets he wants

very, very interesting - to me anyway



Betting exchanges are a great concept once there are enough patrons involved. Unfortunately they are not good in the beginning as many people will get frustrated as no one will take their bet.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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February 21st, 2023 at 10:08:38 AM permalink
FanDuel has continued with their markedly + EV bets. Yesterday had Duke -10.5 parlayed with Kansas money line at +250. Duke was 18.5 point favorite and Kansas 1.5 point underdog. I felt fair odds were closer to +180 or so. Duke was DOWN 9 points early but easily covered by the end. Kansas was nip and tuck but pulled away in last minute or two.
I think todays ‘boost’ is likely still -EV. It’s total of 7 goals or more in the two Champions League soccer games. +230. Expected total is 5. Funny thing is it is BetRivers boost today as well…. but they only go to +200.
I got separate + EV offers for my Sabres tonight. I have one on them winning (they are +145 dog) but the other one is on the Leafs winning by more than one goal. So no 4-3 Leaf’s….
tringlomane
tringlomane
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February 21st, 2023 at 10:27:32 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

FanDuel has continued with their markedly + EV bets. Yesterday had Duke -10.5 parlayed with Kansas money line at +250. Duke was 18.5 point favorite and Kansas 1.5 point underdog. I felt fair odds were closer to +180 or so. Duke was DOWN 9 points early but easily covered by the end. Kansas was nip and tuck but pulled away in last minute or two.
I think todays ‘boost’ is likely still -EV. It’s total of 7 goals or more in the two Champions League soccer games. +230. Expected total is 5. Funny thing is it is BetRivers boost today as well…. but they only go to +200.
I got separate + EV offers for my Sabres tonight. I have one on them winning (they are +145 dog) but the other one is on the Leafs winning by more than one goal. So no 4-3 Leaf’s….
link to original post



In terms of EV, that was one of the best FD odds boosts in awhile. Glad it hit since my gf and I both had the max $50 on it. Everywhere I've read on the net so far doesn't like the Champions League 7+ goals Boost. Unfortunately, FD is starting to add in more -EV boosts. I think a lot of sportsbooks will be tightening the belt now. There aren't a ton of new players to go after.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 21st, 2023 at 10:38:23 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Quote: SOOPOO

FanDuel has continued with their markedly + EV bets. Yesterday had Duke -10.5 parlayed with Kansas money line at +250. Duke was 18.5 point favorite and Kansas 1.5 point underdog. I felt fair odds were closer to +180 or so. Duke was DOWN 9 points early but easily covered by the end. Kansas was nip and tuck but pulled away in last minute or two.
I think todays ‘boost’ is likely still -EV. It’s total of 7 goals or more in the two Champions League soccer games. +230. Expected total is 5. Funny thing is it is BetRivers boost today as well…. but they only go to +200.
I got separate + EV offers for my Sabres tonight. I have one on them winning (they are +145 dog) but the other one is on the Leafs winning by more than one goal. So no 4-3 Leaf’s….
link to original post



In terms of EV, that was one of the best FD odds boosts in awhile. Glad it hit since my gf and I both had the max $50 on it. Everywhere I've read on the net so far doesn't like the Champions League 7+ goals Boost. Unfortunately, FD is starting to add in more -EV boosts. I think a lot of sportsbooks will be tightening the belt now. There aren't a ton of new players to go after.
link to original post

.
I don’t think these boosts are what they use to go after new players. That’s the recent $3k risk free bet. The boosts I think keep players coming every day, betting on these boosts AND the gazillions of -EV bets they offer.

So yesterday I was watching that TCU Kansas game intently. I hedged a little bit mid game. At one point BetMGM clearly had a bad/stale line of +140 on TCU. The other books were around +110 with around -135 on Kansas. So I picked up a free couple dollars PLUS those are ‘regular’ non boosted bets to make me look like a ploppy. As soon as I got my bet confirmation on MGM re-entered the same bet they said odds had changed to +110. So couldn’t do it again.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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February 21st, 2023 at 10:48:35 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: SOOPOO

FanDuel has continued with their markedly + EV bets. Yesterday had Duke -10.5 parlayed with Kansas money line at +250. Duke was 18.5 point favorite and Kansas 1.5 point underdog. I felt fair odds were closer to +180 or so. Duke was DOWN 9 points early but easily covered by the end. Kansas was nip and tuck but pulled away in last minute or two.
I think todays ‘boost’ is likely still -EV. It’s total of 7 goals or more in the two Champions League soccer games. +230. Expected total is 5. Funny thing is it is BetRivers boost today as well…. but they only go to +200.
I got separate + EV offers for my Sabres tonight. I have one on them winning (they are +145 dog) but the other one is on the Leafs winning by more than one goal. So no 4-3 Leaf’s….
link to original post



In terms of EV, that was one of the best FD odds boosts in awhile. Glad it hit since my gf and I both had the max $50 on it. Everywhere I've read on the net so far doesn't like the Champions League 7+ goals Boost. Unfortunately, FD is starting to add in more -EV boosts. I think a lot of sportsbooks will be tightening the belt now. There aren't a ton of new players to go after.
link to original post

.
I don’t think these boosts are what they use to go after new players. That’s the recent $3k risk free bet. The boosts I think keep players coming every day, betting on these boosts AND the gazillions of -EV bets they offer.

So yesterday I was watching that TCU Kansas game intently. I hedged a little bit mid game. At one point BetMGM clearly had a bad/stale line of +140 on TCU. The other books were around +110 with around -135 on Kansas. So I picked up a free couple dollars PLUS those are ‘regular’ non boosted bets to make me look like a ploppy. As soon as I got my bet confirmation on MGM re-entered the same bet they said odds had changed to +110. So couldn’t do it again.
link to original post



Oh see, I assume there are too many people like me instead. Hopefully you're right and I'm wrong.

I mostly bet the boosts and promotions and very little else. I do bet a few things that aren't -EV but for very small amounts versus the odds boosts. Mainly on whack job sports because I'm weird. Australian Rules Football and Cricket for instance. Lol And sometimes hockey because those markets aren't boosted too often. I often burn free bonus bets with NHL parlays.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 21st, 2023 at 11:02:02 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: SOOPOO

FanDuel has continued with their markedly + EV bets. Yesterday had Duke -10.5 parlayed with Kansas money line at +250. Duke was 18.5 point favorite and Kansas 1.5 point underdog. I felt fair odds were closer to +180 or so. Duke was DOWN 9 points early but easily covered by the end. Kansas was nip and tuck but pulled away in last minute or two.
I think todays ‘boost’ is likely still -EV. It’s total of 7 goals or more in the two Champions League soccer games. +230. Expected total is 5. Funny thing is it is BetRivers boost today as well…. but they only go to +200.
I got separate + EV offers for my Sabres tonight. I have one on them winning (they are +145 dog) but the other one is on the Leafs winning by more than one goal. So no 4-3 Leaf’s….
link to original post



In terms of EV, that was one of the best FD odds boosts in awhile. Glad it hit since my gf and I both had the max $50 on it. Everywhere I've read on the net so far doesn't like the Champions League 7+ goals Boost. Unfortunately, FD is starting to add in more -EV boosts. I think a lot of sportsbooks will be tightening the belt now. There aren't a ton of new players to go after.
link to original post

.
I don’t think these boosts are what they use to go after new players. That’s the recent $3k risk free bet. The boosts I think keep players coming every day, betting on these boosts AND the gazillions of -EV bets they offer.

So yesterday I was watching that TCU Kansas game intently. I hedged a little bit mid game. At one point BetMGM clearly had a bad/stale line of +140 on TCU. The other books were around +110 with around -135 on Kansas. So I picked up a free couple dollars PLUS those are ‘regular’ non boosted bets to make me look like a ploppy. As soon as I got my bet confirmation on MGM re-entered the same bet they said odds had changed to +110. So couldn’t do it again.
link to original post



Oh see, I assume there are too many people like me instead. Hopefully you're right and I'm wrong.

I mostly bet the boosts and promotions and very little else. I do bet a few things that aren't -EV but for very small amounts versus the odds boosts. Mainly on whack job sports because I'm weird. Australian Rules Football and Cricket for instance. Lol And sometimes hockey because those markets aren't boosted too often. I often burn free bonus bets with NHL parlays.
link to original post



Basically…. Me too! I sort of mentioned earlier but I have a ‘free’ bet tonight on Leafs -1.5/Red Wings ML. Both underdogs so decent payoff. I’ve bet $1 on darts.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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February 21st, 2023 at 11:19:54 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: SOOPOO

FanDuel has continued with their markedly + EV bets. Yesterday had Duke -10.5 parlayed with Kansas money line at +250. Duke was 18.5 point favorite and Kansas 1.5 point underdog. I felt fair odds were closer to +180 or so. Duke was DOWN 9 points early but easily covered by the end. Kansas was nip and tuck but pulled away in last minute or two.
I think todays ‘boost’ is likely still -EV. It’s total of 7 goals or more in the two Champions League soccer games. +230. Expected total is 5. Funny thing is it is BetRivers boost today as well…. but they only go to +200.
I got separate + EV offers for my Sabres tonight. I have one on them winning (they are +145 dog) but the other one is on the Leafs winning by more than one goal. So no 4-3 Leaf’s….
link to original post



In terms of EV, that was one of the best FD odds boosts in awhile. Glad it hit since my gf and I both had the max $50 on it. Everywhere I've read on the net so far doesn't like the Champions League 7+ goals Boost. Unfortunately, FD is starting to add in more -EV boosts. I think a lot of sportsbooks will be tightening the belt now. There aren't a ton of new players to go after.
link to original post

.
I don’t think these boosts are what they use to go after new players. That’s the recent $3k risk free bet. The boosts I think keep players coming every day, betting on these boosts AND the gazillions of -EV bets they offer.

So yesterday I was watching that TCU Kansas game intently. I hedged a little bit mid game. At one point BetMGM clearly had a bad/stale line of +140 on TCU. The other books were around +110 with around -135 on Kansas. So I picked up a free couple dollars PLUS those are ‘regular’ non boosted bets to make me look like a ploppy. As soon as I got my bet confirmation on MGM re-entered the same bet they said odds had changed to +110. So couldn’t do it again.
link to original post



Oh see, I assume there are too many people like me instead. Hopefully you're right and I'm wrong.

I mostly bet the boosts and promotions and very little else. I do bet a few things that aren't -EV but for very small amounts versus the odds boosts. Mainly on whack job sports because I'm weird. Australian Rules Football and Cricket for instance. Lol And sometimes hockey because those markets aren't boosted too often. I often burn free bonus bets with NHL parlays.
link to original post



Basically…. Me too! I sort of mentioned earlier but I have a ‘free’ bet tonight on Leafs -1.5/Red Wings ML. Both underdogs so decent payoff. I’ve bet $1 on darts.
link to original post



Oh yeah, darts too. Hahaha Burning a bonus bet on that this week too that I got for betting the Chiefs.

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 21st, 2023 at 3:33:24 PM permalink
So I bet $5 on the 7 or over goals at FD. 9 total!

Today BetRivers has Xavier/Creighton/Texas at +200. Seems about 0 EV. ‘Coincidentally’ just checked FanDuel and they now have the SAME parlay at +250. So another +EV opportunity, and I think it is a direct marketing attack against BetRivers. Two days in a row with same boost just way better odds?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 22nd, 2023 at 3:23:29 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So I bet $5 on the 7 or over goals at FD. 9 total!

Today BetRivers has Xavier/Creighton/Texas at +200. Seems about 0 EV. ‘Coincidentally’ just checked FanDuel and they now have the SAME parlay at +250. So another +EV opportunity, and I think it is a direct marketing attack against BetRivers. Two days in a row with same boost just way better odds?
link to original post



Xavier and Creighton both lost. Still a great night as my two underdog parlay mentioned a few posts back hit. Leafs -1.5…. They were up 5-0 in the 3rd period…. Gave up 3 goals and nearly the 4th…

Today the +EV bet from FanDuel is Kentucky/North Carolina/Houston at + 200. My guess is fair odds +160. Before this offer I had another +EV offer which I coincidentally have Kentucky as well. So let’s go Wildcats!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 22nd, 2023 at 8:10:45 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Today the +EV bet from FanDuel is Kentucky/North Carolina/Houston at + 200. My guess is fair odds +160. Before this offer I had another +EV offer which I coincidentally have Kentucky as well. So let’s go Wildcats!


Another winner. Makes up for my losing soccer/hockey bets today. I think I’m up a few dozen eggs overall today….!

Waiting for the FanDuel boost tomorrow!
Ace2
Ace2
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February 23rd, 2023 at 3:14:22 PM permalink
Call it one dozen pasture-raised eggs from a real grocery store
It’s all about making that GTA
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 23rd, 2023 at 3:58:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Call it one dozen pasture-raised eggs from a real grocery store
link to original post



I think I ended up between $25 and $50 total. I bought a dozen eggs for a tad less than $3. So I actually may have won a gross of eggs.

I have 3 bets which go poof when the Sabres lose tonight. My offers were minimal today. I just tallied my bet TOTAL for today and it’s less than $100.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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February 23rd, 2023 at 4:43:18 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

So I bet $5 on the 7 or over goals at FD. 9 total!

Today BetRivers has Xavier/Creighton/Texas at +200. Seems about 0 EV. ‘Coincidentally’ just checked FanDuel and they now have the SAME parlay at +250. So another +EV opportunity, and I think it is a direct marketing attack against BetRivers. Two days in a row with same boost just way better odds?
link to original post



Xavier and Creighton both lost. Still a great night as my two underdog parlay mentioned a few posts back hit. Leafs -1.5…. They were up 5-0 in the 3rd period…. Gave up 3 goals and nearly the 4th…

Today the +EV bet from FanDuel is Kentucky/North Carolina/Houston at + 200. My guess is fair odds +160. Before this offer I had another +EV offer which I coincidentally have Kentucky as well. So let’s go Wildcats!
link to original post



Had that FD bet too for the max. But now I'm in Missouri, so betting the promos will slow down. Boo. That dart parlay that I made above also hit. As well as a 4 leg CBB parlay that hit (33% profit boost) for about $280. So good day for me today!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 24th, 2023 at 2:40:15 AM permalink
.


the Bucks -1.5 over the Heat tonight looks like to me like a great bet
better yet the Bucks at -125 and give up just 12% of the profit compared to the spread - so something ugly doesn't happen
the Heat have a losing record on the road while the Bucks are 24-5 at home
the Bucks have won 12 in a row - no guarantees of course


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
AxelWolf
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February 24th, 2023 at 6:25:14 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

I've got some questions for you, Soopoo, and I'm honestly just curious

you posted I believe, 5 figures total to the positive with your online sports betting, congratulations!

how many W2g's did you get?

I assume though your experience overall, after taxes, was still +EV. How close a call is it?

do you attribute your success to playing off one online site against another?
link to original post



No W2 G’s. None of my bets are that large (after the initial ‘risk free’ bets). And none are at that extreme odds.

As far as taxes, all they do is reduce how much I make. I’ll give a hypothetical. If I made $30k and have to pay 20% in taxes on that it just means I cleared $24k. If I made $15k I would have cleared $12k.

Answering the previous post…. I think I am being throttled back. I’m certainly getting either fewer or smaller +EV opportunities.

As far as ‘playing one side against the other’, I do do that sometimes. But understand, real APs like Axel and Wiz, would frown upon that! I’ll give a simple example. I had an opportunity to pick ‘team to score first in the super bowl’ boosted to +150. So my $10 bet will pay out a total of $25. The +EV was $5.
But I could bet on another site at the prevailing rate (which for even bets is -110) on the other team. So I could bet $13 to win $12 (rounded) for a payout of $25. So if you notice I win $2 NO MATTER WHAT. But Wiz and Axel will chastise me for turning $5 in EV into $2. I do believe that it is important that I make the negative EV hedge bets for longevity. The site I make the -EV bet just sees it as a typical loser bet.
link to original post

There's nothing wrong with locking up a profit and giving up some value. However, anything over 20% seems a bit steep

You should be chastised for put f-ing around with such small potatoes when you can clearly spot sports overlays and figure out how to exploit them and profit. You should be seeking out bigger opportunities. It's probably the same amount of time and effort but with much bigger profits.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 24th, 2023 at 6:48:44 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



You should be chastised for put f-ing around with such small potatoes when you can clearly spot sports overlays and figure out how to exploit them and profit. You should be seeking out bigger opportunities. It's probably the same amount of time and effort but with much bigger profits.
link to original post




absolute nonsense

the dude is a Doctor - he undoubtedly has a net worth in the millions

why should he care if he makes thousands instead of hundreds betting sports____?

he does it for entertainment OBVIOUSLY - perfectly understandable - how much he bets is his business, not yours

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 24th, 2023 at 7:51:09 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf



You should be chastised for put f-ing around with such small potatoes when you can clearly spot sports overlays and figure out how to exploit them and profit. You should be seeking out bigger opportunities. It's probably the same amount of time and effort but with much bigger profits.
link to original post




absolute nonsense

the dude is a Doctor - he undoubtedly has a net worth in the millions

why should he care if he makes thousands instead of hundreds betting sports____?

he does it for entertainment OBVIOUSLY - perfectly understandable - how much he bets is his business, not yours

.
link to original post



The truth is somewhere in between! I DEFINITELY would be betting more on the offers I mention but the sites limit my max bet. For these offers some have cut me to $5! I do get entertainment for sure, but I am doing it to make some extra money mostly.

As far as Axels comments, I’m NOT that good at finding overlays that I have the availability to bet large sums on. The FanDuel ones I’ve been mentioning are always capped at $50.
Frankly, I’m way closer to a ‘square’ than a ‘sharp’.

Yesterday another (small) good day as Sabres pulled off the upset.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 24th, 2023 at 2:25:47 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf



You should be chastised for put f-ing around with such small potatoes when you can clearly spot sports overlays and figure out how to exploit them and profit. You should be seeking out bigger opportunities. It's probably the same amount of time and effort but with much bigger profits.
link to original post




absolute nonsense

the dude is a Doctor - he undoubtedly has a net worth in the millions

why should he care if he makes thousands instead of hundreds betting sports____?

he does it for entertainment OBVIOUSLY - perfectly understandable - how much he bets is his business, not yours

.
link to original post

Relax bro, this is now the second time as of late you have miss read the room/situation with me. You're getting ornery towards me for whatever reason, and yet for the previous 5 or 6 years we have coexisted without issue on what I assumed were mostly friendly terms. And that's fine you do you, but I remember last time thinking WTF is going on here, perhaps it's that time, the time when I come to the conclusion the forum is a net negative for me.

Either way, I'm friends with SeePoo(Best Miss spell ever). He made it my business when mentioning me in the post.

My criticism was in jest, but with a ring of truth.

Just because someone has an abundance of money doesn't mean they wouldn't want to make more while doing basically the same thing, with the same effort, but with more value both percentage and money wise. He has already mentioned he's just doing this for fun, and I get that, but why not do both, have fun but make more money?

The fact that he can afford it makes it all the more reason he should do it.

Obviously, if he's willing to chop off a digit for extra money, then I don't see why my suggestion was out of line.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 24th, 2023 at 2:35:06 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf



You should be chastised for put f-ing around with such small potatoes when you can clearly spot sports overlays and figure out how to exploit them and profit. You should be seeking out bigger opportunities. It's probably the same amount of time and effort but with much bigger profits.
link to original post




absolute nonsense

the dude is a Doctor - he undoubtedly has a net worth in the millions

why should he care if he makes thousands instead of hundreds betting sports____?

he does it for entertainment OBVIOUSLY - perfectly understandable - how much he bets is his business, not yours

.
link to original post



The truth is somewhere in between! I DEFINITELY would be betting more on the offers I mention but the sites limit my max bet. For these offers some have cut me to $5! I do get entertainment for sure, but I am doing it to make some extra money mostly.

As far as Axels comments, I’m NOT that good at finding overlays that I have the availability to bet large sums on. The FanDuel ones I’ve been mentioning are always capped at $50.
Frankly, I’m way closer to a ‘square’ than a ‘sharp’.

Yesterday another (small) good day as Sabres pulled off the upset.
link to original post

Yes I know you would be betting more if they offered it. Thus my suggestion. You're just being lazy in regard to looking for new/better opportunities and diving into the unknown. I get it, we all do that to some degree, I'm guilty of that myself on certain things.

I think you underestimate your ability in seeing value and being able to exploit it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 24th, 2023 at 3:09:48 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf



You should be chastised for put f-ing around with such small potatoes when you can clearly spot sports overlays and figure out how to exploit them and profit. You should be seeking out bigger opportunities. It's probably the same amount of time and effort but with much bigger profits.
link to original post




absolute nonsense

the dude is a Doctor - he undoubtedly has a net worth in the millions

why should he care if he makes thousands instead of hundreds betting sports____?

he does it for entertainment OBVIOUSLY - perfectly understandable - how much he bets is his business, not yours

.
link to original post



The truth is somewhere in between! I DEFINITELY would be betting more on the offers I mention but the sites limit my max bet. For these offers some have cut me to $5! I do get entertainment for sure, but I am doing it to make some extra money mostly.

As far as Axels comments, I’m NOT that good at finding overlays that I have the availability to bet large sums on. The FanDuel ones I’ve been mentioning are always capped at $50.
Frankly, I’m way closer to a ‘square’ than a ‘sharp’.

Yesterday another (small) good day as Sabres pulled off the upset.
link to original post

Yes I know you would be betting more if they offered it. Thus my suggestion. You're just being lazy in regard to looking for new/better opportunities and diving into the unknown. I get it, we all do that to some degree, I'm guilty of that myself on certain things.

I think you underestimate your ability in seeing value and being able to exploit it.
link to original post



Thank you!

Interesting today…. Bucks we’re a 1 point favorite over the Heat. With Giannis out I thought the Heat should be faves. Just re checked. Bucks now 5.5 point faves! No announcement that I can find but I’ll surmise Giannis had a remarkable recovery and will be playing tonight. Whoever had that info could have made quite a bit of $$$$. Could have gotten Bucks -115 initially. Now can get the Heat at +175.
That is a HUGE opportunity. If you could have gotten $115k down on the Bucks at -115 (was available on all sites) and now $70k on the Heat…. Win $30k if Bucks win. Win $7.5k if Heat wins. That’s just an example. If you can get 7 figures down….
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanked by
AxelWolf
March 1st, 2023 at 11:04:45 AM permalink
So I go on my 5 sites and look at their boosts and parlay suggestions. FanDuel and DraftKings often have some offers that are clearly +EV. But I’m limited to $5, $10, max $50.
Almost never a goodie on MGM, BetRivers, or Caesars.
Today while perusing MGM they had a parlay at +333 that looked to good to be true. (Rangers, Maple Leafs, Stars). I tried to figure out fair odds and it came out to +265. I made my bet, it was accepted. Just went on again and they have the same offer…. but now it’s +240. I don’t think I have any limitations on bet size on these bets on BetMGM.

Bulls/Knicks/Trailblazers/Grizzlies -5.5 is my boosted NBA parlay of the day.
Pitt/SE Missouri St/Gonzaga/Kansas St/TCU -2.5 is my boosted college parlay of the day.

And the aforementioned Rangers/Maple Leafs/Stars.


For those that want to root for (or against?) me!
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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March 1st, 2023 at 12:19:09 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So I go on my 5 sites and look at their boosts and parlay suggestions. FanDuel and DraftKings often have some offers that are clearly +EV. But I’m limited to $5, $10, max $50.
Almost never a goodie on MGM, BetRivers, or Caesars.
Today while perusing MGM they had a parlay at +333 that looked to good to be true. (Rangers, Maple Leafs, Stars). I tried to figure out fair odds and it came out to +265. I made my bet, it was accepted. Just went on again and they have the same offer…. but now it’s +240. I don’t think I have any limitations on bet size on these bets on BetMGM.

Bulls/Knicks/Trailblazers/Grizzlies -5.5 is my boosted NBA parlay of the day.
Pitt/SE Missouri St/Gonzaga/Kansas St/TCU -2.5 is my boosted college parlay of the day.

And the aforementioned Rangers/Maple Leafs/Stars.


For those that want to root for (or against?) me!
link to original post

How much did you bet?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
DRich
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March 1st, 2023 at 6:32:28 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So I go on my 5 sites and look at their boosts and parlay suggestions. FanDuel and DraftKings often have some offers that are clearly +EV. But I’m limited to $5, $10, max $50.
Almost never a goodie on MGM, BetRivers, or Caesars.
Today while perusing MGM they had a parlay at +333 that looked to good to be true. (Rangers, Maple Leafs, Stars). I tried to figure out fair odds and it came out to +265. I made my bet, it was accepted. Just went on again and they have the same offer…. but now it’s +240. I don’t think I have any limitations on bet size on these bets on BetMGM.

Bulls/Knicks/Trailblazers/Grizzlies -5.5 is my boosted NBA parlay of the day.
Pitt/SE Missouri St/Gonzaga/Kansas St/TCU -2.5 is my boosted college parlay of the day.

And the aforementioned Rangers/Maple Leafs/Stars.


For those that want to root for (or against?) me!
link to original post



Sorry to say, but your parlay is not looking good at the moment. Currently all three teams are losing.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 1st, 2023 at 7:18:56 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

So I go on my 5 sites and look at their boosts and parlay suggestions. FanDuel and DraftKings often have some offers that are clearly +EV. But I’m limited to $5, $10, max $50.
Almost never a goodie on MGM, BetRivers, or Caesars.
Today while perusing MGM they had a parlay at +333 that looked to good to be true. (Rangers, Maple Leafs, Stars). I tried to figure out fair odds and it came out to +265. I made my bet, it was accepted. Just went on again and they have the same offer…. but now it’s +240. I don’t think I have any limitations on bet size on these bets on BetMGM.

Bulls/Knicks/Trailblazers/Grizzlies -5.5 is my boosted NBA parlay of the day.
Pitt/SE Missouri St/Gonzaga/Kansas St/TCU -2.5 is my boosted college parlay of the day.

And the aforementioned Rangers/Maple Leafs/Stars.


For those that want to root for (or against?) me!
link to original post



Sorry to say, but your parlay is not looking good at the moment. Currently all three teams are losing.
link to original post



My NBA parlay is 3/3 so far. I need the TrailBlazers money line. Hitting one 4 teamer boosted would more than make up for the other two losing.

I think I’m going to bet $1 on the Knicks to win it all.
billryan
billryan
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March 1st, 2023 at 7:38:53 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

So I go on my 5 sites and look at their boosts and parlay suggestions. FanDuel and DraftKings often have some offers that are clearly +EV. But I’m limited to $5, $10, max $50.
Almost never a goodie on MGM, BetRivers, or Caesars.
Today while perusing MGM they had a parlay at +333 that looked to good to be true. (Rangers, Maple Leafs, Stars). I tried to figure out fair odds and it came out to +265. I made my bet, it was accepted. Just went on again and they have the same offer…. but now it’s +240. I don’t think I have any limitations on bet size on these bets on BetMGM.

Bulls/Knicks/Trailblazers/Grizzlies -5.5 is my boosted NBA parlay of the day.
Pitt/SE Missouri St/Gonzaga/Kansas St/TCU -2.5 is my boosted college parlay of the day.

And the aforementioned Rangers/Maple Leafs/Stars.


For those that want to root for (or against?) me!
link to original post



Sorry to say, but your parlay is not looking good at the moment. Currently all three teams are losing.
link to original post



My NBA parlay is 3/3 so far. I need the TrailBlazers money line. Hitting one 4 teamer boosted would more than make up for the other two losing.

I think I’m going to bet $1 on the Knicks to win it all.
link to original post



Whu not just bet $500 of Monopoly money?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
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March 1st, 2023 at 9:44:40 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

So I go on my 5 sites and look at their boosts and parlay suggestions. FanDuel and DraftKings often have some offers that are clearly +EV. But I’m limited to $5, $10, max $50.
Almost never a goodie on MGM, BetRivers, or Caesars.
Today while perusing MGM they had a parlay at +333 that looked to good to be true. (Rangers, Maple Leafs, Stars). I tried to figure out fair odds and it came out to +265. I made my bet, it was accepted. Just went on again and they have the same offer…. but now it’s +240. I don’t think I have any limitations on bet size on these bets on BetMGM.

Bulls/Knicks/Trailblazers/Grizzlies -5.5 is my boosted NBA parlay of the day.
Pitt/SE Missouri St/Gonzaga/Kansas St/TCU -2.5 is my boosted college parlay of the day.

And the aforementioned Rangers/Maple Leafs/Stars.


For those that want to root for (or against?) me!
link to original post



Sorry to say, but your parlay is not looking good at the moment. Currently all three teams are losing.
link to original post



My NBA parlay is 3/3 so far. I need the TrailBlazers money line. Hitting one 4 teamer boosted would more than make up for the other two losing.

I think I’m going to bet $1 on the Knicks to win it all.
link to original post



Whu not just bet $500 of Monopoly money?
link to original post



I got 100-1. Brunson and Randle seem to have a certain chemistry. Quickley is instant energy and offense. Barrett is an all around talent. Robinson is a great rebounder and rim protector. I think they are good value at 100-1. They just easily handled the Celtics. Crushed the Nets. Routed the Pelicans. Have won 9 of their last 10, also including a win against the 76ers. Most likely play Cavs in first round. Cavs started hot and have fallen off.

Go Knicks!
billryan
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March 2nd, 2023 at 6:36:42 AM permalink
All for a dollar.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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March 2nd, 2023 at 6:46:25 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

All for a dollar.

link to original post




I have a problem with bet size - I used to get enjoyment out of winning a few hundred
but my investments have gone way up and now that's nothing to me
but I can't bet thousands on a sporting event - it's not in my blood -
so, it's all just a game - and all but irrelevant how much I bet
even so - if you play a game - you want to play it well -


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 2, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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March 2nd, 2023 at 8:24:56 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

All for a dollar.

link to original post




I have a problem with bet size - I used to get enjoyment out of winning a few hundred
but my investments have gone way up and now that's nothing to me
but I can't bet thousands on a sporting event - it's not in my blood -
so, it's all just a game - and all but irrelevant how much I bet
even so - if you play a game - you want to play it well -


.
link to original post



I’ve mentioned this before. I lose or win on average 100x more in the stock market every day than I lose or win sports betting.

Just found a +260 on site A and a -240 on site B. Got $1k on site B and $400 on site A. Either win $40 or $17. Will get a few $ on each in ‘points’ as well. One of the bets took a minute or so to go through due to ‘review’ before it was accepted. I just happened upon it as it was about the Sabres making the playoffs. I thought it would be about even money! I am a stupid fan so I most likely way over rate them. I thought about just betting the +260 but took the free money instead….
billryan
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March 2nd, 2023 at 8:31:28 AM permalink
A wise woman once told me that if you run around picking up every penny you see, they will eventually make a hole in your pocket, and your bankroll will fall through. Different strokes and all of that, but if I'm going to make an effort to find good wagers, I want a tangible reward.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 2nd, 2023 at 8:45:03 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

A wise woman once told me that if you run around picking up every penny you see, they will eventually make a hole in your pocket, and your bankroll will fall through. Different strokes and all of that, but if I'm going to make an effort to find good wagers, I want a tangible reward.
link to original post



I agree. To me, the $30 or so I just made for pushing a few buttons is a tangible reward. It’s not like I had to climb a roof. Or even get out of bed. Last night I went out with 6 buddies. Burgers and beers came to $32 each. I look at it as my 1 minute of button pushing paid for dinner. Tangible. To each his own.
lilredrooster
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March 2nd, 2023 at 12:09:06 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



To me, the $30 or so I just made for pushing a few buttons is a tangible reward.




Soopoo:

I know $30 is not a significant amount of money to you - everybody does
you're flipping back - you're still in the mindset of when you were much younger and $30 actually was some money to you
but right now - it's not - it's not even a drop in the bucket

but I'm not criticizing your bet size - not at all

they key thing is that you are enjoying - and that you are playing the game well - every self respecting person has pride and wants to play the game well


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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March 2nd, 2023 at 5:06:29 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO



To me, the $30 or so I just made for pushing a few buttons is a tangible reward.




Soopoo:

I know $30 is not a significant amount of money to you - everybody does
you're flipping back - you're still in the mindset of when you were much younger and $30 actually was some money to you
but right now - it's not - it's not even a drop in the bucket

but I'm not criticizing your bet size - not at all

they key thing is that you are enjoying - and that you are playing the game well - every self respecting person has pride and wants to play the game well


.
link to original post



I think it is awesome how much enjoyment he gets out of his gambling. It is not always about the money, it is about the quest. Some people play board games just to win even though there is no money involved. I grew up in a competitive atmosphere, if I am playing any type of game my goal is to win.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
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March 5th, 2023 at 7:49:17 PM permalink
I'm still just betting all the overs on the XFL. I'm using free bets bonuses and promotions so it's +EV from that for sure. I think the overs have value alone. They are not taking much action on the XFL.

There is a SA and HOU going on now, it's a nail bitter for the over right now with 2 min to go(got to love it). The score is 13-22

It was looking really good in the 3rd but not so much now. O/U 37.5.

The previous 2 XFL games went way over.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AZDuffman
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March 6th, 2023 at 2:39:19 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm still just betting all the overs on the XFL. I'm using free bets bonuses and promotions so it's +EV from that for sure. I think the overs have value alone. They are not taking much action on the XFL.

There is a SA and HOU going on now, it's a nail bitter for the over right now with 2 min to go(got to love it). The score is 13-22

It was looking really good in the 3rd but not so much now. O/U 37.5.

The previous 2 XFL games went way over.
link to original post



Interesting take. "Gamble On" said that the XFL over/under lines have mostly been close.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AxelWolf
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March 6th, 2023 at 3:35:23 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm still just betting all the overs on the XFL. I'm using free bets bonuses and promotions so it's +EV from that for sure. I think the overs have value alone. They are not taking much action on the XFL.

There is a SA and HOU going on now, it's a nail bitter for the over right now with 2 min to go(got to love it). The score is 13-22

It was looking really good in the 3rd but not so much now. O/U 37.5.

The previous 2 XFL games went way over.
link to original post



Interesting take. "Gamble On" said that the XFL over/under lines have mostly been close.
link to original post

They can stay close as long as they are going over. As I said, I need to put in bets regardless.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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March 6th, 2023 at 5:36:57 AM permalink
We all have tons of bad beat stories. Yesterday I was on the ‘good beat’ side! I needed Knicks /Celts to go over, Knicks to win and Randle to get a few more points than was going to happen…. and it did because of double overtime!

I had 5 team CBB parlay which 4 won by one bucket…. Last game was N Dak St. 5 point faves. So I kept hedging with their opponent anywhere from +2.5 to plus 5.5 during the game…. They won by 2 so I hit the parlay and all the hedges as well…

Best bet of the weekend….. was watching MMA…. There was an even fight between Ribas and Aruajo, Ribas looking slightly better, that had a huge stunning punch by Ribas….. I got a bet in at just -210…. Clearly they hadn’t factored in that punch…. Once the bet was accepted I tried again but the odds were now -700 or so…..

I’m wondering if there are people watching with a bet on both combatants ‘primed’ ? And pull trigger like I did after seeing a fight changing event? Getting the bet in seconds before the odds reflect the punch/takedown/etc.?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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March 7th, 2023 at 5:41:39 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm still just betting all the overs on the XFL. I'm using free bets bonuses and promotions so it's +EV from that for sure. I think the overs have value alone. They are not taking much action on the XFL.

There is a SA and HOU going on now, it's a nail bitter for the over right now with 2 min to go(got to love it). The score is 13-22

It was looking really good in the 3rd but not so much now. O/U 37.5.

The previous 2 XFL games went way over.
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Interesting take. "Gamble On" said that the XFL over/under lines have mostly been close.
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They are starting to adjust the O/U lines. Before, there wasn't anything over 38 that I noticed, mostly 37.5 now there are two out of 4 40.5s
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
DRich
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March 9th, 2023 at 4:35:14 AM permalink

WWE in talks with state gambling regulators to legalize betting on scripted match results


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/wwe-betting-scripted-match-results.html


I can't even imagine how they will be able to pitch this to get it approved.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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March 9th, 2023 at 5:01:37 AM permalink
Quote: DRich


WWE in talks with state gambling regulators to legalize betting on scripted match results


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/wwe-betting-scripted-match-results.html


I can't even imagine how they will be able to pitch this to get it approved.
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I was just going to post this very same thing!

For those that do not know, Five Dimes offered betting on pro wrestling 10 or so years ago. I posted about that here and mentioned that I would take my bets elsewhere because any book who would offer this kind of bet loses my confidence on any other bet. Aside from betting on something fake, what do we have to consider?

One is what happens if there is a "Dusty Finish?" That is when a winner is announced but later some technicality reverses that decision. This is not the same as the books who lost both sides paying off Hillary bets around Halloween 2016 because "it was over" as far as they were concerned. We are talking as if the NFL called back a TD the day after the Superbowl because they noticed the player's foot sort of touched the out-of-bounds line.

Another is people who know what will happen making bets via beards. You could limit this, but only limit it. Even then, consider if you get a rumor going really good. Action to one side, bet the winning side for better moneyline. Not a matter of "if" but "when."

Finally, WWE is going to be sold soon. Probably to a major media company. That will both make it harder to limit the circle who knows the outcome as well as add conflicts of interest. NBC is a lead potential buyer. So they have WWE with bets riding with the same books who buy ads! Yeah, nothing can go wrong there.

Bad, bad idea.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 9th, 2023 at 5:47:21 AM permalink
Quote: DRich


WWE in talks with state gambling regulators to legalize betting on scripted match results


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/wwe-betting-scripted-match-results.html


I can't even imagine how they will be able to pitch this to get it approved.
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I already get offers, all free contests, to guess what will happen in certain matches. ‘Who will win, Lesnar or Cena’? How many F-5’s will Lesnar hit? Will there be outside interference? Will there be a disqualification?

Point being real money will be given out for selecting correctly. I have a 0.001% chance of getting them all correct. The actual wrestler would have a 100% chance. There are probably a few dozen people with the knowledge of the script.
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