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billryan
billryan
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March 9th, 2023 at 5:55:37 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich


WWE in talks with state gambling regulators to legalize betting on scripted match results


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/wwe-betting-scripted-match-results.html


I can't even imagine how they will be able to pitch this to get it approved.
link to original post



I already get offers, all free contests, to guess what will happen in certain matches. ‘Who will win, Lesnar or Cena’? How many F-5’s will Lesnar hit? Will there be outside interference? Will there be a disqualification?

Point being real money will be given out for selecting correctly. I have a 0.001% chance of getting them all correct. The actual wrestler would have a 100% chance. There are probably a few dozen people with the knowledge of the script.
link to original post



I've still got several friends in the business. Two years ago, one of them won a major AEW title and found out about fifteen minutes before the match. His contract called for him to win the title by a specific date, but he didn't get a chance to call his family after he was told.
It's an idiotic idea to allow betting on these events, but since a full script of a RAW turned up a few years ago, the business is much more on a need to know basis. BTW- the person whose script was leaked was fired and banned from WWE events forever.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 9th, 2023 at 6:05:40 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich


WWE in talks with state gambling regulators to legalize betting on scripted match results


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/wwe-betting-scripted-match-results.html


I can't even imagine how they will be able to pitch this to get it approved.
link to original post



I already get offers, all free contests, to guess what will happen in certain matches. ‘Who will win, Lesnar or Cena’? How many F-5’s will Lesnar hit? Will there be outside interference? Will there be a disqualification?

Point being real money will be given out for selecting correctly. I have a 0.001% chance of getting them all correct. The actual wrestler would have a 100% chance. There are probably a few dozen people with the knowledge of the script.
link to original post



I've still got several friends in the business. Two years ago, one of them won a major AEW title and found out about fifteen minutes before the match. His contract called for him to win the title by a specific date, but he didn't get a chance to call his family after he was told.
It's an idiotic idea to allow betting on these events, but since a full script of a RAW turned up a few years ago, the business is much more on a need to know basis. BTW- the person whose script was leaked was fired and banned from WWE events forever.
link to original post



Interesting. If a contract that specifically stated that the wrestler would win the title became public that would be bad too. Golly, I thought that was decided in the ring….

In NY you can’t bet on ‘voted’ outcomes, like league MVPs, or ‘selection’ outcomes, like who will be the number one pick in the NFL draft. The Bears GM might have an advantage. There is a small chance they don’t trade it and take Jalen Carter. You can probably get 10-1 on him or something like that.
LESLOSACKETT
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March 9th, 2023 at 3:51:10 PM permalink
Gee, dont they bet on the Oscars ? Why not wrestling ? Who cares if someone with inside info makes a profit ? What matters is the bookie making a profit. Why worry about the chumps on the losing end ?
AxelWolf
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March 9th, 2023 at 5:58:19 PM permalink
If they could find a way to write 2 different script endings that are randomly selected after the betting was closed(as the bell rings the wrestlers and refs find out what script to follow). I could see this working and being very good for wrestling.

I guess the random outcomes would have to be weighted toward the people they want to win the matches. I dont think they could have a 50/50 chance or that would screw up the wrestling model and overall storylines. That would really screw up the betting lines as well, I would assume most of the money would come in on the most liked wrestler?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
billryan
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March 9th, 2023 at 6:28:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If they could find a way to write 2 different script endings that are randomly selected after the betting was closed(as the bell rings the wrestlers and refs find out what script to follow). I could see this working and being very good for wrestling.

I guess the random outcomes would have to be weighted toward the people they want to win the matches. I dont think they could have a 50/50 chance or that would screw up the wrestling model and overall storylines. That would really screw up the betting lines as well, I would assume most of the money would come in on the most liked wrestler?
link to original post



Why would it be good for wrestling? The WWE won't make money off it. If all the little Jimmy's start betting, half of them won't have money to buy merchandise.
There are a few matches that the results were changed last minute, sometimes without one of the wrestlers knowing. The Montreal screw-job is the most famous. Brett Hart was leaving and was going to lose the title the next week but McMahon got mad at him and had the ref say he submitted when he hadn't.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
mcallister3200
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March 9th, 2023 at 6:30:36 PM permalink
A state can’t really do this and maintain any credibility in pretending to care about curbing problem gambling.
AxelWolf
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March 10th, 2023 at 6:45:48 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: AxelWolf

If they could find a way to write 2 different script endings that are randomly selected after the betting was closed(as the bell rings the wrestlers and refs find out what script to follow). I could see this working and being very good for wrestling.

I guess the random outcomes would have to be weighted toward the people they want to win the matches. I dont think they could have a 50/50 chance or that would screw up the wrestling model and overall storylines. That would really screw up the betting lines as well, I would assume most of the money would come in on the most liked wrestler?
link to original post



Why would it be good for wrestling? The WWE won't make money off it. If all the little Jimmy's start betting, half of them won't have money to buy merchandise.
There are a few matches that the results were changed last minute, sometimes without one of the wrestlers knowing. The Montreal screw-job is the most famous. Brett Hart was leaving and was going to lose the title the next week but McMahon got mad at him and had the ref say he submitted when he hadn't.
link to original post

Because whenever people can bet on something it drastically increases viewership, popularity, and new fans, that leads to more merchandise, more PPV, that would lead to more sponsorship deals... more everything.

Why would they want it if they themselves didn't think it would be beneficial to them? Of course, they will make money off of it.

I don't even know how this is a serious question. Do some research and you'll see what impact sports/whatever betting has on the popularity of sports/whatever.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
billryan
billryan
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March 10th, 2023 at 7:58:59 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: billryan

Quote: AxelWolf

If they could find a way to write 2 different script endings that are randomly selected after the betting was closed(as the bell rings the wrestlers and refs find out what script to follow). I could see this working and being very good for wrestling.

I guess the random outcomes would have to be weighted toward the people they want to win the matches. I dont think they could have a 50/50 chance or that would screw up the wrestling model and overall storylines. That would really screw up the betting lines as well, I would assume most of the money would come in on the most liked wrestler?
link to original post



Why would it be good for wrestling? The WWE won't make money off it. If all the little Jimmy's start betting, half of them won't have money to buy merchandise.
There are a few matches that the results were changed last minute, sometimes without one of the wrestlers knowing. The Montreal screw-job is the most famous. Brett Hart was leaving and was going to lose the title the next week but McMahon got mad at him and had the ref say he submitted when he hadn't.
link to original post

Because whenever people can bet on something it drastically increases viewership, popularity, and new fans, that leads to more merchandise, more PPV, that would lead to more sponsorship deals... more everything.

Why would they want it if they themselves didn't think it would be beneficial to them? Of course, they will make money off of it.

I don't even know how this is a serious question. Do some research and you'll see what impact sports/whatever betting has on the popularity of sports/whatever.
link to original post




This is the first year many states had legal gambling. I do not see a large increase in ratings. In fact, most regional sports networks are getting phased out due to declining viewership and revenue.
The WWE is a carnival and anytime people talk about it is good for them. It may be sold soon so any publicity or nonsense about them accepting bets helps them.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AxelWolf
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March 10th, 2023 at 2:54:11 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: billryan

Quote: AxelWolf

If they could find a way to write 2 different script endings that are randomly selected after the betting was closed(as the bell rings the wrestlers and refs find out what script to follow). I could see this working and being very good for wrestling.

I guess the random outcomes would have to be weighted toward the people they want to win the matches. I dont think they could have a 50/50 chance or that would screw up the wrestling model and overall storylines. That would really screw up the betting lines as well, I would assume most of the money would come in on the most liked wrestler?
link to original post



Why would it be good for wrestling? The WWE won't make money off it. If all the little Jimmy's start betting, half of them won't have money to buy merchandise.
There are a few matches that the results were changed last minute, sometimes without one of the wrestlers knowing. The Montreal screw-job is the most famous. Brett Hart was leaving and was going to lose the title the next week but McMahon got mad at him and had the ref say he submitted when he hadn't.
link to original post

Because whenever people can bet on something it drastically increases viewership, popularity, and new fans, that leads to more merchandise, more PPV, that would lead to more sponsorship deals... more everything.

Why would they want it if they themselves didn't think it would be beneficial to them? Of course, they will make money off of it.

I don't even know how this is a serious question. Do some research and you'll see what impact sports/whatever betting has on the popularity of sports/whatever.
link to original post




This is the first year many states had legal gambling. I do not see a large increase in ratings. In fact, most regional sports networks are getting phased out due to declining viewership and revenue.
The WWE is a carnival and anytime people talk about it is good for them. It may be sold soon so any publicity or nonsense about them accepting bets helps them.
link to original post

I don't know if it's just a clever ploy or not. I am all but certain being able to bet on something highly increases the popularity of whatever that thing is.

I did a quick search and found this interesting. I haven't any clue how accurate this information is or anything. https://variety.com/2022/sports/tech/how-sports-betting-is-driving-fan-engagement-viewership-1235460169/

Sneak peek.

% of Sports Gamblers Who Watch Sports More Than Usual When Betting on a Game. The highest was NFL at 67%. The lowest was golf adding 29%.


My nonscientific observation. My ears have always perked up whenever I heard females talking about sports betting.
It's very telling when you have a bunch of cocktail waitresses, and female bartenders huddled around the service station talking about who they have on the Sunday/ Monday games as they are looking up at the television, and you hear words like parlays, overs/unders, 6.5, 7, 3.5 points, etc. FYI I can't recall ever hearing the word money line. From my observation, they are usually betting on the spread.

I understand it's a unique situation being in LV casinos and all.

I know my wifely wouldn't have much interest in watching any sport/event other than the fact that she knows I have money on it. She enjoys watching MMA, Boxing, or a little football with me whenever I watch.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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March 11th, 2023 at 5:39:42 PM permalink
Still betting on all the XFL overs.

SAB vs SSD: O/U37.5. The Halftime score is 26 to 10, but never count your chickens before they hatch. Far too many times have there been situations where you can only lose if ZY AND Z happen s, and of course, it does.

In one of the last games I watched, I needed one score to go. At the start of the 4th quarter, it was 1st and goal from a yard or 2 away, they go 4 and out. there were no scores in the 4th quarter, LOL!
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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March 11th, 2023 at 7:14:12 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Still betting on all the XFL overs.

SAB vs SSD: O/U37.5. The Halftime score is 26 to 10, but never count your chickens before they hatch. Far too many times have there been situations where you can only lose if ZY AND Z happen s, and of course, it does.

In one of the last games I watched, I needed one score to go. At the start of the 4th quarter, it was 1st and goal from a yard or 2 away, they go 4 and out. there were no scores in the 4th quarter, LOL!
link to original post

Final was 44 to 16. Now on to SA and SEA, I got 40.5.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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March 12th, 2023 at 6:26:14 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AxelWolf

Still betting on all the XFL overs.

SAB vs SSD: O/U37.5. The Halftime score is 26 to 10, but never count your chickens before they hatch. Far too many times have there been situations where you can only lose if ZY AND Z happen s, and of course, it does.

In one of the last games I watched, I needed one score to go. At the start of the 4th quarter, it was 1st and goal from a yard or 2 away, they go 4 and out. there were no scores in the 4th quarter, LOL!
link to original post

Final was 44 to 16. Now on to SA and SEA, I got 40.5.
link to original post



The SA and SEA game went way under.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
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March 12th, 2023 at 7:04:41 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AxelWolf

Still betting on all the XFL overs.

SAB vs SSD: O/U37.5. The Halftime score is 26 to 10, but never count your chickens before they hatch. Far too many times have there been situations where you can only lose if ZY AND Z happen s, and of course, it does.

In one of the last games I watched, I needed one score to go. At the start of the 4th quarter, it was 1st and goal from a yard or 2 away, they go 4 and out. there were no scores in the 4th quarter, LOL!
link to original post

Final was 44 to 16. Now on to SA and SEA, I got 40.5.
link to original post



The SA and SEA game went way under.
link to original post



The quarterback for the Sea Dragons looked decent but the rest of the game was rather poor.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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LESLOSACKETT
LESLOSACKETT
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March 17th, 2023 at 12:31:51 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

A state can’t really do this and maintain any credibility in pretending to care about curbing problem gambling.
link to original post



When did the state ever have any credibility in this area ? I can remember when Don King burst onto the boXing scene, Editorials and polaticians focused on Don being a former numbers runners rarely was there a comment about him shooting in the back someone trying to rob one of his gambling games nor the prison sentence he served for stomping a man to death over a $600 debt, The focus was always on the evil numbers racket and poor mothers betting 50 cents each day instead of buying milk for their babies. Of course the numbers racket paid 700 to 1 and the state pays 500 to 1, and solicits mothers with tv commercials about some of the proceeds being used for park for her children to play in!
AxelWolf
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March 17th, 2023 at 3:54:38 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Found this guy on Reddit, been following his picks for a few weeks. His model has been performing really well on NCAAB, NBA, and NHL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/htmlview

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11tb6gh/pick_of_the_day_31723_friday/jcigzob/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
link to original post

Did you happen to notice how it's performing across all sports, and over how many picks total?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:47:34 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Found this guy on Reddit, been following his picks for a few weeks. His model has been performing really well on NCAAB, NBA, and NHL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/htmlview

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11tb6gh/pick_of_the_day_31723_friday/jcigzob/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
link to original post


POTD - (pick of the day) dude had a winner yesterday - he picked Creighton - 5- he might be the real deal - let's see

his analysis of the Creighton game was 8 paragraphs long - deep

he has posted that he's 25-7-1 before the Creighton game -

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 18, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
gamerfreak
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March 18th, 2023 at 5:15:54 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: gamerfreak

Found this guy on Reddit, been following his picks for a few weeks. His model has been performing really well on NCAAB, NBA, and NHL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/htmlview

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11tb6gh/pick_of_the_day_31723_friday/jcigzob/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
link to original post

Did you happen to notice how it's performing across all sports, and over how many picks total?
link to original post


If go to the google sheet I linked you can see the performance on all games for each day. Most days have been >60% on all picks. The NHL picks, and the NBA O/U have been particularly good.

His POTD is the game he considers a lock.
POTD Stats: +43.24U in 34 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110



He updates the spreadsheet by early afternoon each day.
lilredrooster
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March 18th, 2023 at 8:36:07 AM permalink
.


gamerfreak's potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est


gamerfreak: this guy is your find - not mine - not trying to take credit - hope you don't mind me posting some of his picks

if you do lemme know and you can take over


.
Please don't feed the trolls
gamerfreak
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March 18th, 2023 at 9:26:21 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.


gamerfreak's potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est


gamerfreak: this guy is your find - not mine - not trying to take credit - hope you don't mind me posting some of his picks

if you do lemme know and you can take over


.
link to original post


Go for it, I take no credit for this guy’s model.
AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:05:03 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.


gamerfreak's potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est


gamerfreak: this guy is your find - not mine - not trying to take credit - hope you don't mind me posting some of his picks

if you do lemme know and you can take over


.
link to original post

Plase do!!

Aside from the POTD, does he have other high-confidence picks we should take note of?

Normally, I'm not interested unless there's some type of math and logic behind it or a long history of success. I have just seen far too many models and handicappers that eventually fail.

With the advancement of computer web data harvesting and whatnot, I can see how there might be something there.



I seem to be getting more and more 100+% bonus offers and various promotions tossed at me, I can't even handle them all(they have betting limits and restrictions, so you can't jam it all on one big bet), I try to look for game values, but it's too time-consuming, so I'm good with random bets, something like this can't hurt. I will give it a try. Today's POTD is Booked.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:13:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

.


gamerfreak's potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est


gamerfreak: this guy is your find - not mine - not trying to take credit - hope you don't mind me posting some of his picks

if you do lemme know and you can take over


.
link to original post

Plase do!!

Aside from the POTD, does he have other high-confidence picks we should take note of?

Normally, I'm not interested unless there's some type of math and logic behind it or a long history of success. I have just seen far too many models and handicappers that eventually fail.

With the advancement of computer web data harvesting and whatnot, I can see how there might be something there.



I dunno about other high confidence bets - I don't wanna do some kinna in depth analysis

I don't think this guy is some kinna computer guy - I think he studies this stuff very hard - he writes a long, long analysis of the games - I think he loves doing this - it's his speculation

after all the buildup I gave this guy maybe he'll flop and I'll look like an idiot - it could happen_____________(-:/


.
Please don't feed the trolls
DRich
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:18:14 PM permalink
My favorite justifications for the touts is something like "They are covering 76% of the time as a road underdog over the last 15 years when the starting point guard has four vowels in his first name".
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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Thanked by
DRich
March 18th, 2023 at 1:23:22 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

My favorite justifications for the touts is something like "They are covering 76% of the time as a road underdog over the last 15 years when the starting point guard has four vowels in his first name".
link to original post



'Forty five percent of the bets he made have doubled in value."
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:27:31 PM permalink
.

just to be clear - this dude is not a tout - touts sell - he doesn't sell

he gives his picks for free

.
Please don't feed the trolls
AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:27:53 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

.


gamerfreak's potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est


gamerfreak: this guy is your find - not mine - not trying to take credit - hope you don't mind me posting some of his picks

if you do lemme know and you can take over


.
link to original post

Plase do!!

Aside from the POTD, does he have other high-confidence picks we should take note of?

Normally, I'm not interested unless there's some type of math and logic behind it or a long history of success. I have just seen far too many models and handicappers that eventually fail.

With the advancement of computer web data harvesting and whatnot, I can see how there might be something there.



I dunno about other high confidence bets - I don't wanna do some kinna in depth analysis

I don't think this guy is some kinna computer guy - I think he studies this stuff very hard - he writes a long, long analysis of the games - I think he loves doing this - it's his speculation

after all the buildup I gave this guy maybe he'll flop and I'll look like an idiot - it could happen_____________(-:/


.
link to original post

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. I assumed he starts there and then digs into the why and then he writes a long, long analysis of the games. I certainly hope that's the case.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DRich
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:28:27 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

just to be clear - this dude is not a tout - touts sell - he doesn't sell

he gives his picks for free

.
link to original post



Sorry, I was not trying to imply this guy was a tout.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:40:04 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

.


gamerfreak's potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est


gamerfreak: this guy is your find - not mine - not trying to take credit - hope you don't mind me posting some of his picks

if you do lemme know and you can take over


.
link to original post

Plase do!!

Aside from the POTD, does he have other high-confidence picks we should take note of?

Normally, I'm not interested unless there's some type of math and logic behind it or a long history of success. I have just seen far too many models and handicappers that eventually fail.

With the advancement of computer web data harvesting and whatnot, I can see how there might be something there.



I dunno about other high confidence bets - I don't wanna do some kinna in depth analysis

I don't think this guy is some kinna computer guy - I think he studies this stuff very hard - he writes a long, long analysis of the games - I think he loves doing this - it's his speculation

after all the buildup I gave this guy maybe he'll flop and I'll look like an idiot - it could happen_____________(-:/


.
link to original post


I need to read more of his posts- but I got the impression all of these were computer/ML picks.
DRich
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March 18th, 2023 at 1:49:58 PM permalink
Tennessee is definitely looking like the better team. I was rooting for Duke because of Scheyer.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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March 18th, 2023 at 2:08:21 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster




potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est

after all the buildup I gave this guy maybe he'll flop and I'll look like an idiot - it could happen_____________(-:/


woops____!!!!!

Tennessee 65 - Duke 52


to be fair to the guy - I believe March Madness is more difficult and less predictable than regular season and Conference games

he points this out himself - it may be a while before he really shines

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 18, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2023 at 3:39:35 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

just to be clear - this dude is not a tout - touts sell - he doesn't sell

he gives his picks for free

.
link to original post

Well, he does get and take tips. Also, we don't know what his ultimate goal of giving out pick for free are. They all Eventually sell out.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2023 at 3:44:56 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster




potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est

after all the buildup I gave this guy maybe he'll flop and I'll look like an idiot - it could happen_____________(-:/


woops____!!!!!

Tennessee 65 - Duke 52


to be fair to the guy - I believe March Madness is more difficult and less predictable than regular season and Conference games

he points this out himself - it may be a while before he really shines

.
link to original post

Oh l, don't worry, once I start betting someone picks they will lose. It's the gambling God's way of punishing me for straying from proven mathematical +EV bets.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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March 18th, 2023 at 4:01:08 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster




potd reddit dude is on Duke -3.5 over Tennesse - gametime 2:40 est

after all the buildup I gave this guy maybe he'll flop and I'll look like an idiot - it could happen_____________(-:/


woops____!!!!!

Tennessee 65 - Duke 52


to be fair to the guy - I believe March Madness is more difficult and less predictable than regular season and Conference games

he points this out himself - it may be a while before he really shines

.
link to original post

Oh l, don't worry, once I start betting someone picks they will lose. It's the gambling God's way of punishing me for straying from proven mathematical +EV bets.
link to original post



Of course one pick means nothing, but my first exposure before a game he picked being Duke who was roasted as a favorite is not encouraging. I picked Duke as well so I know he’s no good!
lilredrooster
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Thanked by
DRich
March 18th, 2023 at 4:08:53 PM permalink
.

I'm not giving up on this guy - he's 1-1 since 3/17 since I've been tracking him - he won the Creighton game yesterday - I saw the pick before the game started

if he wins tomorrow's pick he'll be 2-1 since then - that's 66.66%

I need to shut up and stop making a big deal out of each pick - let's see where he's at after 25 picks

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
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March 18th, 2023 at 4:16:41 PM permalink
I have gotten some amazingly lucky ‘good beats’ recently.
Parlay with Xavier -4.5. They are down most of the game. Even in the last minute. They go up 3 at the end. And are fouled with 1 second to go. Two foul shots. Cover!
Houston 4th team in parlay to all win by 11 or more. Other 3 coasting. Houston around even in last few minutes. Goes on a run to get up 7. Then they are the recipient of the ubiquitous useless fouls. 4 foul shots. Cover!

The offers have been great. Profit boosts up the wazoo. Free bets if you lose one leg on a parlay. Risk free bets. Tennis was great. Bet $100. They give you a free $50 bet immediately.
gamerfreak
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March 18th, 2023 at 4:24:04 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

I'm not giving up on this guy - he's 1-1 since 3/17 since I've been tracking him - he won the Creighton game yesterday - I saw the pick before the game started

if he wins tomorrow's pick he'll be 2-1 since then - that's 66.66%

I need to shut up and stop making a big deal out of each pick - let's see where he's at after 25 picks

.
link to original post


I have been playing his picks for about a month and can confirm he posts them before the game, and his record is legit.

March Madness is volatile. I’d expect his NHL and NBA picks to do better than the NCAA picks in the coming days.

I hope he keeps posting for MLB this summer. RIP steeldco

As far as motivation goes, I have no idea. If I had to guess it’s a data or computer science professional doing it as a hobby.
DRich
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March 18th, 2023 at 4:52:18 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

RIP steeldco



Wow, I didn't know we lost steelco
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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March 18th, 2023 at 4:59:35 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

RIP steeldco



Wow, I didn't know we lost steelco
link to original post


:(

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/30503-rip-steeldco/
DRich
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March 18th, 2023 at 7:08:38 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

RIP steeldco



Wow, I didn't know we lost steelco
link to original post


:(

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/30503-rip-steeldco/
link to original post



Wow, that was a long time ago. Obviously I knew it then since I commented in the thread but sadly I had forgotten about him.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2023 at 7:26:14 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

I'm not giving up on this guy - he's 1-1 since 3/17 since I've been tracking him - he won the Creighton game yesterday - I saw the pick before the game started

if he wins tomorrow's pick he'll be 2-1 since then - that's 66.66%

I need to shut up and stop making a big deal out of each pick - let's see where he's at after 25 picks

.
link to original post

When does he normally add his POTD?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
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March 19th, 2023 at 1:21:22 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



When does he normally add his POTD


don't really know - yesterday I saw it at about 10:45 - but the NCAAB is starting much earlier than usual because of the tourney - the first game is at 11:00 est

I hope to catch his pick by keeping a tab open on his page and refreshing ever so often

.
Please don't feed the trolls
lilredrooster
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March 19th, 2023 at 3:09:55 AM permalink
.

okay, just saw his pick - very early

reddit guy potd:

Uconn -4.5 over Saint Mary's - he says take it up to 4.5 - 6:10 est

the line has already moved 1 point - it opened at 3.5___________________glta




a couple of personal thoughts:

Uconn has played a much tougher schedule which includes crushing Alabama

Uconn is aware of the astonishing upsets and will not take this game lightly


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 19, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2023 at 5:51:49 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

okay, just saw his pick - very early

reddit guy potd:

Uconn -4.5 over Saint Mary's - he says take it up to 4.5 - 6:10 est

the line has already moved 1 point - it opened at 3.5___________________glta




a couple of personal thoughts:

Uconn has played a much tougher schedule which includes crushing Alabama

Uconn is aware of the astonishing upsets and will not take this game lightly


.
link to original post

I got -4
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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March 19th, 2023 at 7:47:47 AM permalink
BetRivers has UConn -3.5 but slightly added juice at -113. I think that’s better than -4 and -110.
It’s an imperfect hedge for me as I have a 4 team parlay that the other 3 have hit already but I have St Mary’s money line as the 4th pick. So if UConn wins by 1-3 I lose everything.
I have 8 teamer (4 each day) that hit yesterday so am alive with Xavier, Duquesne, North Texas, and Gonzaga.

Yesterday had Princeton +5.5 and under 146.5. Princeton was killing Mizzou in a very low scoring game. There were probably 25 points scored in the last two minutes as even though down 18 or so Mizzou kept the silly fouling. Luckily Princeton missed a few so still stayed under 146.5. There was loud booing for each foul towards the end. I’m sure there are those who have figured out which coaches throw up the white flag appropriately and which don’t.
gamerfreak
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March 19th, 2023 at 5:19:40 PM permalink


First half had me worried
lilredrooster
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March 20th, 2023 at 3:14:58 AM permalink
.

2-1 since 3/17


reddit guy potd:


Southern Utah - 6 over Rice - 2p.m. est - he says up to - 6.5__________________glta

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
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March 20th, 2023 at 5:13:20 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

2-1 since 3/17


reddit guy potd:


Southern Utah - 6 over Rice - 2p.m. est - he says up to - 6.5__________________glta

.
link to original post



No -6. I got it at -6.5 at -105.

I’m a little ‘upset’ at Rice. I had Duquesne beating them in my two big parlays yesterday…..

Overall bad day for me but I was on the right side of bizarre ending in Gonzaga TCU. TCU is down 6 with game what looks like over, but there is 0.7 seconds left on the clock. The ‘etiquette’ in those situations is to just pass the ball in so the game ends. But the TCU inbounder rolls the ball 3/4 the way down the court. No defense is played. A TCU player picks it up and heaves a 30 footer…. Swish! The spread was 4.5! Over had already covered.
AxelWolf
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March 20th, 2023 at 1:53:16 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

2-1 since 3/17


reddit guy potd:


Southern Utah - 6 over Rice - 2p.m. est - he says up to - 6.5__________________glta

.
link to original post

Wasn't his original POTD Indiana state over Eastern Kentucky, but he said it wasn't up yet and wasn't sure if it would be?
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Mar 20, 2023
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
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March 21st, 2023 at 3:13:07 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



.Wasn't his original POTD Indiana state over Eastern Kentucky, but he said it wasn't up yet and wasn't sure if it would be?



Axel - I didn't see any other pick - after I get it very early I don't check back - if you see a different pick please post it


2-2 since 3/17

reddit guy potd:

Seattle Kraken vs. Dallas Stars___________over 6_____________8:30 et


.
Please don't feed the trolls
AxelWolf
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March 21st, 2023 at 6:33:28 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf



.Wasn't his original POTD Indiana state over Eastern Kentucky, but he said it wasn't up yet and wasn't sure if it would be?



Axel - I didn't see any other pick - after I get it very early I don't check back - if you see a different pick please post it


2-2 since 3/17

reddit guy potd:

Seattle Kraken vs. Dallas Stars___________over 6_____________8:30 et


.
link to original post

I seen it soon after he posted it. He said it wasn't up so he might have an alternative potd. I found Indiana state over Eastern Kentucky and got down. I missed the alternative afternoon game. Both lost.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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