SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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ksdjdj
October 8th, 2022 at 12:48:58 PM permalink
I think FanDuel gave a really big +EV opportunity.
Packers -6.5/ Rodgers over 249.5 yds passing is +400

Packers are 8 point faves.
Rodgers O/U passing prop is 225.

I think fair odds is around +270 or so, as the two outcomes are somewhat correlated.

Before this offer I had another parlay offer and include the Giants +8. Looking for Packers to win by 7….
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 8th, 2022 at 1:07:39 PM permalink
V Tech @ Pittsburgh:
Just need "Pittsburgh -3.5 x Over 7.5 in the first quarter" to win ~5k @ +310.

Edit:
By the time I finished writing this post, it was already Pittsburgh 4th and 10 : (
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 8th, 2022 at 3:48:59 PM permalink
Come on Pittsburgh.
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).
DRich
DRich
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October 8th, 2022 at 4:20:17 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Come on Pittsburgh.
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).
link to original post



Glad to see you got even.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 8th, 2022 at 5:23:13 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

Come on Pittsburgh.
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).
link to original post



Glad to see you got even.
link to original post


Thanks.

This is probably the "best estimated EV game" today (that they put "same game doubles" odds up for, at least):
It is to win between 4.8k and 5k, and I need either: "Alabama -7.5 / Over 10.5 - 1st Quarter" or "Texas A&M +7.5 / Under 10.5 - 1st Quarter" (I got the equivalent odds of about -131, combined).

----
Update (~1735, Pac Time):
Extra:

I had other "fairly big bets" on doubles for the 'Bama game and the Hawaii @ San Diego State game, and a "smaller but still +EV IMO bet" on the "Steelers +14.5 / Under 45.5", tomorrow.

Lastly, I probably won't be betting on the "NFL win by exactly 3 (or 7)" markets anymore, because they have "effectively barred" me on those bets, now. ^^^

^^^: I will explain this in more detail in my "diary" thread, once all those bets have been resolved.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 8, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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SOOPOO
October 9th, 2022 at 5:22:03 PM permalink
(See my previous post, above):

Had a great week on the NCAAF, as I won a little bit less than 10k (I included my Steelers' bet in that figure, even though that is NFL)..

I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).

^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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ksdjdj
October 9th, 2022 at 6:39:57 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(See my previous post, above):

Had a great week on the NCAAF, as I won a little bit less than 10k (I included my Steelers' bet in that figure, even though that is NFL)..

I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).

^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).
link to original post



Geez…. You make $3k ‘fun’ bets!?!? I make my + EV bets at whatever the Sportsbook limits me to…. And my ‘fun’ bets are usually $5. I won’t deny I’ve made $1 bets as well…

Boosted win on Jets over Dolphins money line. Almost made up for my Steelers +14 bet. I will also admit I found a Steelers +14.5 line and added to my misery.

FanDuel gave +200 on Falcons +21.5, Browns +7.5, and Cowboys +10.5. Limit of $50 to win $100. Seemed too good to be true. But they paid.
avianrandy
avianrandy
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ksdjdj
October 9th, 2022 at 6:53:02 PM permalink
In my opinion the colts and the bears are 2 tough teams to figure out. Denver was 2-0 at home yet Indy beat them in overtime.vikings favored by 7.5 over bears. Didn't give bears much of a chance and they had chance to tie it. I would have taken vikings but I didn't bet the game. Good luck to all on your bets
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 9th, 2022 at 7:07:51 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).

^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).
link to original post



Geez…. You make $3k ‘fun’ bets!?!? (snip)
link to original post


Even though I called it a "fun" bet, it is probably closer to "trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" bet (since they are now the last one that I can get on for decent amounts).

Note 1: IMO, the "fair line" for Bengals -300 was somewhere between +10 to +10.5

Note 2: I know I can still lose, but it is looking a lot better at half time than it was before the V.Bell interception.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 9th, 2022 at 10:58:01 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
link to original post


(snip)"trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" (snip)
link to original post


Here is another "trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" bet, below:

1000 to win 600 on the Chiefs @ -4

Note 1: I think the estimated EV is between 1% and 2%, ATM .
Note 2: Normally I would want an estimated EV of at least 8%, before I bet these "fairly big" amounts.

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