Sports betting chatter

I think FanDuel gave a really big +EV opportunity.
Packers -6.5/ Rodgers over 249.5 yds passing is +400

Packers are 8 point faves.
Rodgers O/U passing prop is 225.

I think fair odds is around +270 or so, as the two outcomes are somewhat correlated.

Before this offer I had another parlay offer and include the Giants +8. Looking for Packers to win by 7….

V Tech @ Pittsburgh:
Just need "Pittsburgh -3.5 x Over 7.5 in the first quarter" to win ~5k @ +310.

Edit:
By the time I finished writing this post, it was already Pittsburgh 4th and 10 : (

Come on Pittsburgh.
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).

Quote: ksdjdj

Come on Pittsburgh.
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).
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Glad to see you got even.

Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

Come on Pittsburgh.
I just need them to win by 15+ and I will win ~1.6k on that bet, but I will be about square for the game (see my previous post above).
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Glad to see you got even.
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Thanks.

This is probably the "best estimated EV game" today (that they put "same game doubles" odds up for, at least):
It is to win between 4.8k and 5k, and I need either: "Alabama -7.5 / Over 10.5 - 1st Quarter" or "Texas A&M +7.5 / Under 10.5 - 1st Quarter" (I got the equivalent odds of about -131, combined).

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Update (~1735, Pac Time):
Extra:

I had other "fairly big bets" on doubles for the 'Bama game and the Hawaii @ San Diego State game, and a "smaller but still +EV IMO bet" on the "Steelers +14.5 / Under 45.5", tomorrow.

Lastly, I probably won't be betting on the "NFL win by exactly 3 (or 7)" markets anymore, because they have "effectively barred" me on those bets, now. ^^^

^^^: I will explain this in more detail in my "diary" thread, once all those bets have been resolved.

(See my previous post, above):

Had a great week on the NCAAF, as I won a little bit less than 10k (I included my Steelers' bet in that figure, even though that is NFL)..

I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).

^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).

Quote: ksdjdj

(See my previous post, above):

Had a great week on the NCAAF, as I won a little bit less than 10k (I included my Steelers' bet in that figure, even though that is NFL)..

I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).

^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).
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Geez…. You make $3k ‘fun’ bets!?!? I make my + EV bets at whatever the Sportsbook limits me to…. And my ‘fun’ bets are usually $5. I won’t deny I’ve made $1 bets as well…

Boosted win on Jets over Dolphins money line. Almost made up for my Steelers +14 bet. I will also admit I found a Steelers +14.5 line and added to my misery.

FanDuel gave +200 on Falcons +21.5, Browns +7.5, and Cowboys +10.5. Limit of $50 to win $100. Seemed too good to be true. But they paid.

In my opinion the colts and the bears are 2 tough teams to figure out. Denver was 2-0 at home yet Indy beat them in overtime.vikings favored by 7.5 over bears. Didn't give bears much of a chance and they had chance to tie it. I would have taken vikings but I didn't bet the game. Good luck to all on your bets

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
I had a "for fun bet^^^ " on the Bengals game that is just starting. It is "Bengals +12", 3,000 to win 1,000 (odds -300).
I also have, "Bengals +3.5 and under 47.5 " for 500 to win 1,375 (odds +275).

^^^: I still think the estimated EV is better than 0% (though not by much).
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Geez…. You make $3k ‘fun’ bets!?!? (snip)
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Even though I called it a "fun" bet, it is probably closer to "trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" bet (since they are now the last one that I can get on for decent amounts).

Note 1: IMO, the "fair line" for Bengals -300 was somewhere between +10 to +10.5

Note 2: I know I can still lose, but it is looking a lot better at half time than it was before the V.Bell interception.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
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(snip)
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(snip)"trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" (snip)
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Here is another "trying to make the 'book think I am a square punter" bet, below:

1000 to win 600 on the Chiefs @ -4

Note 1: I think the estimated EV is between 1% and 2%, ATM .
Note 2: Normally I would want an estimated EV of at least 8%, before I bet these "fairly big" amounts.