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LESLOSACKETT
LESLOSACKETT
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March 24th, 2023 at 9:12:53 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.


my pick:


Xavier vs. Texas under 149

Xavier has gone under that total 8 times in the last 12

Texas has gone under that total 8 times in the last 12

as we get closer to the final 4 pressure increases and that can effect shooting %

.
link to original post



I love the over for all of the above reasons.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2023 at 9:16:16 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

POTD from HSRiddles on Reddit:

Quote:

Truly the least sweaty pick so far from our 40 game stretch - Uconn dominated pretty much from the get go and maintained a 20 point lead throughout the game. Little scare with the 10-0 full court pressure, but they came back strong with 4 threes back to back to bring it back up to 30. Next up in the round of 16, give me Creighton to crush the last Cinderella in the tournament by double digits.

POTD Record: 30-9-1Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅

Yesterday's POTD: Uconn Huskies -4 (up to -5.5) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | 3U ✅

Today's POTD: Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (up to -11) vs. Princeton Tigers | 3U

Time: March 24, 2023 | 9:00PM EST

**MODEL EXPLANATION:**Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +64.14U in 39 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠Creighton are a very deep team, with Ryan Nembhard leading the way with 30 points and the rest of their starters averaging +12 points with 5 great bench players have put up great numbers for the jays.
2. ⁠Creighton is shooting 47% from the floor this year, and 36% from 3 (8+ per game).
3. ⁠Creighton is coming off a 9 point win over Baylor, one of the better teams in the tournament this year.
4. ⁠Similar to my last POTD, this spread feels low and riding the wave of the Princeton upsets that have come over the last few games.
5. ⁠Kalkbrenner is a 7 ft 1 260 pounds beast, and look to see him absolutely dominate the floor and boards throughout the game.
6. ⁠Creighton has always been known as a defensive powerhouse, but have also been in the top 40 in all offensive categories under Kenpom.
7. ⁠Princeton is a much shorter team in the paint, with Kalkprenner having a solid 4 inches and 8 inches in overall reach above the center for Princeton. I expected Kalk to dominate the board on each side of the floor and give Creighton many second chance opportunities.
8. ⁠From a numbers POV, Creighton is ranked #12 overall on Kenpom, compared to Princeton who is ranked #91. Split out, this is based on a #22 adjusted ranked offensive and #14 ranked defense). From a pure numbers POV, Creighton is a significantly better team.
9. ⁠Princeton is a young team who aren't used to making it this far. The pressure will be immense, and it's an unknown how they will truly be able to handle the intense pressure from a tenured Creighton crew
10. ⁠The Tigers, just like Arkansas, are really bad outside of the paint, they rank #201 in 3PT%, and 199 in FT%, which are not great stats when trying to maximize your points. Creighton is a long and big team, and pushing the pain will not be easy against one of the best defensive teams in the country.
11. ⁠Overall, this is another mismatch with an inflated line due to Princeton's recent performance. Statistically, they are playing miles about where they should be, and I expect Creighton to wipe the floor with them on both sides of the court. Take Creighton -9.5.

Reminder: As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee | Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex


link to original post



Once again, I’m only seeing 10 or 10.5 point lines. No 9.5 lines. I have Creighton in ML parlays where I needed a ‘lock’. But in my even money parlay I have Princeton +10.5.

After reading his spiel I am not confident in my Princeton selection!

I think FD has a markedly +EV offer today. Alabama / Texas money line parlay is +175. My limit is $50.

Yesterday Tenn loss hit me. But high scoring Zags were a savior. I’m basically rooting for the ‘chalk’ tonight.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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March 24th, 2023 at 9:38:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gamerfreak

POTD from HSRiddles on Reddit:

Quote:

Truly the least sweaty pick so far from our 40 game stretch - Uconn dominated pretty much from the get go and maintained a 20 point lead throughout the game. Little scare with the 10-0 full court pressure, but they came back strong with 4 threes back to back to bring it back up to 30. Next up in the round of 16, give me Creighton to crush the last Cinderella in the tournament by double digits.

POTD Record: 30-9-1Last 20:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅

Yesterday's POTD: Uconn Huskies -4 (up to -5.5) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | 3U ✅

Today's POTD: Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (up to -11) vs. Princeton Tigers | 3U

Time: March 24, 2023 | 9:00PM EST

**MODEL EXPLANATION:**Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +64.14U in 39 days | ≈65.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠Creighton are a very deep team, with Ryan Nembhard leading the way with 30 points and the rest of their starters averaging +12 points with 5 great bench players have put up great numbers for the jays.
2. ⁠Creighton is shooting 47% from the floor this year, and 36% from 3 (8+ per game).
3. ⁠Creighton is coming off a 9 point win over Baylor, one of the better teams in the tournament this year.
4. ⁠Similar to my last POTD, this spread feels low and riding the wave of the Princeton upsets that have come over the last few games.
5. ⁠Kalkbrenner is a 7 ft 1 260 pounds beast, and look to see him absolutely dominate the floor and boards throughout the game.
6. ⁠Creighton has always been known as a defensive powerhouse, but have also been in the top 40 in all offensive categories under Kenpom.
7. ⁠Princeton is a much shorter team in the paint, with Kalkprenner having a solid 4 inches and 8 inches in overall reach above the center for Princeton. I expected Kalk to dominate the board on each side of the floor and give Creighton many second chance opportunities.
8. ⁠From a numbers POV, Creighton is ranked #12 overall on Kenpom, compared to Princeton who is ranked #91. Split out, this is based on a #22 adjusted ranked offensive and #14 ranked defense). From a pure numbers POV, Creighton is a significantly better team.
9. ⁠Princeton is a young team who aren't used to making it this far. The pressure will be immense, and it's an unknown how they will truly be able to handle the intense pressure from a tenured Creighton crew
10. ⁠The Tigers, just like Arkansas, are really bad outside of the paint, they rank #201 in 3PT%, and 199 in FT%, which are not great stats when trying to maximize your points. Creighton is a long and big team, and pushing the pain will not be easy against one of the best defensive teams in the country.
11. ⁠Overall, this is another mismatch with an inflated line due to Princeton's recent performance. Statistically, they are playing miles about where they should be, and I expect Creighton to wipe the floor with them on both sides of the court. Take Creighton -9.5.

Reminder: As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee | Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex


link to original post



Once again, I’m only seeing 10 or 10.5 point lines. No 9.5 lines. I have Creighton in ML parlays where I needed a ‘lock’. But in my even money parlay I have Princeton +10.5.

After reading his spiel I am not confident in my Princeton selection!

I think FD has a markedly +EV offer today. Alabama / Texas money line parlay is +175. My limit is $50.

Yesterday Tenn loss hit me. But high scoring Zags were a savior. I’m basically rooting for the ‘chalk’ tonight.
link to original post


He has it up to -11

I got -10 this morning, I am just betting along for fun so I am not worried about half a point in basketball.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 24th, 2023 at 9:49:50 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO




Today's POTD: Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (up to -11) vs. Princeton Tigers | 3U


Once again, I’m only seeing 10 or 10.5 point lines. .



and once again you are implying that he is pulling some monkey business with the lines

it's RIGHT IN YOUR FACE that he said up to - 11

Stevie Wonder could have seen it

and fyi I saw one book offered - 9.5 this a.m.

and fyi you're posting late

he's usually betting the fave - the fave tends to get bet heavy - it's the public's pick - you'll get a better line many times if you wake up early and make your bet

yesterday you asked on the forum what the pick was - do you not know how to find that out for yourself______?

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 24, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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March 24th, 2023 at 10:50:36 AM permalink
I've never looked at reddit so I appreciate you posting it here. I'd rather give this site the clicks.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2023 at 11:01:57 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO




Today's POTD: Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (up to -11) vs. Princeton Tigers | 3U


Once again, I’m only seeing 10 or 10.5 point lines. .



and once again you are implying that he is pulling some monkey business with the lines

it's RIGHT IN YOUR FACE that he said up to - 11

Stevie Wonder could have seen it

and fyi I saw one book offered - 9.5 this a.m.

and fyi you're posting late

he's usually betting the fave - the fave tends to get bet heavy - it's the public's pick - you'll get a better line many times if you wake up early and make your bet

yesterday you asked on the forum what the pick was - do you not know how to find that out for yourself______?

.
link to original post



Responding to the rude post……. I don’t read every word of every post. I am not implying he is ‘playing monkey business’ but am stating at the time I read it that line was not available to me. Now upon your instruction I re-read it and see the good until -11. My bad. I guess I’ll have to find the link again so as not to bother your busy self….
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 24th, 2023 at 11:21:22 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Responding to the rude post……. I don’t read every word of every post. I am not implying he is ‘playing monkey business’ but am stating at the time I read it that line was not available to me. Now upon your instruction I re-read it and see the good until -11. My bad. I guess I’ll have to find the link again so as not to bother your busy self….


I also informed you how you can get a better line on many days when you're betting the fave
but don't bother to thank me
it's really not necessary

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2023 at 1:13:58 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO



Responding to the rude post……. I don’t read every word of every post. I am not implying he is ‘playing monkey business’ but am stating at the time I read it that line was not available to me. Now upon your instruction I re-read it and see the good until -11. My bad. I guess I’ll have to find the link again so as not to bother your busy self….


I also informed you how you can get a better line on many days when you're betting the fave
but don't bother to thank me
it's really not necessary

.
link to original post



Basically, my gambling is more focused on the offers I get from the books, as opposed to actually trying to guess which team will cover the spread. My bets that will mimic the Reddit guy are for very small $$, more what you would say for fun!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 24th, 2023 at 1:27:17 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Basically, my gambling is more focused on the offers I get from the books, as opposed to actually trying to guess which team will cover the spread. My bets that will mimic the Reddit guy are for very small $$, more what you would say for fun!



it would seem like the books would be getting beat quite often with all of these really generous offers they keep coming up with

I guess their logic is:

so many gamblers who just can't resist making lots and lots of bets - and if we snag them to our site with the offers - we'll beat the vast majority of them

and this is really good for the bettors who have discipline - who only bet when they have some kind of promo or some kind of clear edge - except if you're making serious bucks they're going to limit you - but for those who aren't trying for that - it's great

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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March 24th, 2023 at 1:31:43 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO



Basically, my gambling is more focused on the offers I get from the books, as opposed to actually trying to guess which team will cover the spread. My bets that will mimic the Reddit guy are for very small $$, more what you would say for fun!



it would seem like the books would be getting beat quite often with all of these really generous offers they keep coming up with

I guess their logic is:

so many gamblers who just can't resist making lots and lots of bets - and if we snag them to our site with the offers - we'll beat the vast majority of them

and this is really good for the bettors who have discipline - who only bet when they have some kind of promo or some kind of clear edge - except if you're making serious bucks they're going to limit you - but for those who aren't trying for that - it's great

.
link to original post


In my experience, a huge number of the offers are for parlays, which people are very very bad at.
AxelWolf
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March 24th, 2023 at 2:55:26 PM permalink
I can get 100 % deposit bonuses on thousands with a 15x rollover all day long.

Obviously there's betting limits and odds limits. No parlays and you must stay within+200 or -150.

Any non mainstream sport's have a $100 max bet and most all games have a $500 limit.

If someone can simply guarantee to beat the juice this would be a huge advantage.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gamerfreak
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March 24th, 2023 at 3:06:54 PM permalink
“DrMoneyline” on Reddit has also has had a good run doing POTD for March Madness

Quote:

All-Time POTD: 136-87-2, +53.7u, +12.2% ROI

All-Time March Madness POTD: 12-3

Last pick: Gonzaga +1 ✅

Today’s pick: Miami +7.5 (-110) vs Houston

NCAAB March Madness 🏀 7:15PM EST

This is mostly a gut play, but I feel like Miami is being quite disrespected AGAIN. 7.5 is too many points for a team of this caliber in a sweet 16 matchup. Their backcourt led by Wong, Pack and Miller have been unconscious the last 2 months and matchup well with Houston’s guards. IF Houston wins this game it’ll be in the post, but Omier for Miami has also been playing well despite his banged up ankle. Miami continues their momentum from the last few months into this one and keeps it close. A touchdown and 2 point conversion is too much. Wrong sport?

I will also be taking Miami outright at +285

For all plays, follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/

Edit: 3u



I got Miami ML at +290

To be clear, I think this is just some guy on Reddit/Twitter handicapping.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2023 at 6:01:09 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

“DrMoneyline” on Reddit has also has had a good run doing POTD for March Madness

Quote:

All-Time POTD: 136-87-2, +53.7u, +12.2% ROI

All-Time March Madness POTD: 12-3

Last pick: Gonzaga +1 ✅

Today’s pick: Miami +7.5 (-110) vs Houston

NCAAB March Madness 🏀 7:15PM EST

This is mostly a gut play, but I feel like Miami is being quite disrespected AGAIN. 7.5 is too many points for a team of this caliber in a sweet 16 matchup. Their backcourt led by Wong, Pack and Miller have been unconscious the last 2 months and matchup well with Houston’s guards. IF Houston wins this game it’ll be in the post, but Omier for Miami has also been playing well despite his banged up ankle. Miami continues their momentum from the last few months into this one and keeps it close. A touchdown and 2 point conversion is too much. Wrong sport?

I will also be taking Miami outright at +285

For all plays, follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/

Edit: 3u



I got Miami ML at +290

To be clear, I think this is just some guy on Reddit/Twitter handicapping.
link to original post



The only reason I didn’t go 0 for 8 on my bigger bets tonight is…..

I only made 7 of those bets….

Good pick on Miami!
DRich
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March 24th, 2023 at 7:29:16 PM permalink
All four number one seeds failed to make the Elite Eight for the first time in the history of the NCAA Men's tournament.

Who would you make the favorite now and who are you rooting for to win it. I am rooting for Gonzaga now since they have been good for so long and never won it. It would be ironic if they win it in the year no one thought they had a chance.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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March 24th, 2023 at 7:54:19 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

All four number one seeds failed to make the Elite Eight for the first time in the history of the NCAA Men's tournament.

Who would you make the favorite now and who are you rooting for to win it. I am rooting for Gonzaga now since they have been good for so long and never won it. It would be ironic if they win it in the year no one thought they had a chance.
link to original post



I like Texas. But I will be rooting for Gonzaga as well. Drew Timme is fun to watch.

Frankly, it is amazing how bad I am at figuring out how good or bad these teams are.
lilredrooster
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March 25th, 2023 at 12:40:57 AM permalink
.


yesterday POTD: Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (up to -11) vs. Princeton Tigers | 3U



Creighton 86________Princeton 75


in my tracking I'm going to call this a win for him - it fell on 11

but I never saw it hit 11 - the highest I saw it hit was 10.5 - and also, nobody here said they had to give up 11

does anybody disagree and think that that is not fair or correct_____?________ lemme know

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 25, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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March 25th, 2023 at 2:04:01 AM permalink
.


reddit guy potd:


Uconn -1.5 up to -4 over Gonzaga -


I currently see -2 and -2.5 on the books


vegasinsider.com shows BetRivers had -1 at 12:43 a.m. and BetMgm had -1.5 at 12:43 a.m. - several other books show -1.5 in the early a.m.


𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙡𝙮 𝙗𝙞𝙧𝙙 𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙢


he makes the point which I agree with - that with spreads like this you can take the money line and not sweat the points

vegasinsider.com shows right now 3 books offering -135 in which case you sacrifice about 22% of your profit by going this way if you get a win

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 25, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2023 at 6:36:05 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.


yesterday POTD: Creighton Bluejays -9.5 (up to -11) vs. Princeton Tigers | 3U



Creighton 86________Princeton 75


in my tracking I'm going to call this a win for him - it fell on 11

but I never saw it hit 11 - the highest I saw it hit was 10.5 - and also, nobody here said they had to give up 11

does anybody disagree and think that that is not fair or correct_____?________ lemme know

.
link to original post



It’s a win for sure. Line was between 9.5 and 10.5. I think his analysis was a win as well.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2023 at 6:56:24 AM permalink
I just got UConn win/ over 145.5 parlayed at +240 on Bet MGM. The ‘fair line ‘ on over/under is 153.5. This has to be an error, right guys? Bet max was limited to the bizarre amount of $58.01.
Different site I got UCONN -1.5 straight bet.

Before betting I really was going to root for Gonzaga. So taking everything into account it looks like a UConn win by one point in a low scoring game….
gamerfreak
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March 25th, 2023 at 7:03:12 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I just got UConn win/ over 145.5 parlayed at +240 on Bet MGM. The ‘fair line ‘ on over/under is 153.5. This has to be an error, right guys? Bet max was limited to the bizarre amount of $58.01.
Different site I got UCONN -1.5 straight bet.

Before betting I really was going to root for Gonzaga. So taking everything into account it looks like a UConn win by one point in a low scoring game….
link to original post


Might not be a low scoring game. HSRiddles on Reddit, as well as CBS Sports have the UCONN game at O153.5
lilredrooster
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March 25th, 2023 at 8:33:38 AM permalink
.

the image from a twitter post - linked - shows DraftKings limiting a bettor to no more than $5.01 - and some other nonsense
nice of them to let him go over $5
the 2nd image is an NFL game - the bettor was only allowed to bet $31.74 on the over - if it wasn't so sad it would be comical
really, really pathetic








.






https://twitter.com/bookslimitingus


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2023 at 8:57:22 AM permalink
Lilred…. Just so you understand…. The limit in that Cy-Hawk bet was because there was an ‘odds boost’. If you notice the ‘regular’ odds were + 210, but for the limited bet was boosted to +250. I’m sure DraftKings would have allowed an unlimited bet at the ‘regular’ odds of +250. Just today I’ve had bets limited to $5, $10, $15, $20, $25, $50 and $58.01.
If I just want to make a bet on UConn money line at -140 I believe I could bet my entire balance at all 5 sportsbooks I use.

If I wasn’t limited to that $58.01 I’d have bet a LOT more.
DrawingDead
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March 25th, 2023 at 9:31:38 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Does this guy suck? Or not suck? [link to sportscapping RedditDude]

Quote: ChatGPT - OpenAI

As an AI language model, I cannot make subjective judgments about individuals. However, based on the content of the Reddit post you linked, the user claimed to have had some success with sports betting, but also acknowledged that it is a difficult and unpredictable activity. It is not possible to determine whether or not this user is good at sports handicapping. Successful sports handicapping requires consistent and long-term success, which can only be determined by analyzing a larger sample of their betting history.

Quote: DrawingDead

How much sample size do you need?

Quote: ChatGPT - OpenAI

The sample size required to determine success at sports handicapping depends on several factors, such as the level of accuracy desired, the variability of outcomes, and the size of the effect being studied.

Generally, a larger sample size provides more reliable results and reduces the margin of error. However, the specific sample size required can vary greatly depending on the sport, the type of wagers being made, and other factors.

In general, a sample size of at least 100 to 200 bets is typically recommended for determining success at sports handicapping. This sample size can provide enough data to calculate winning percentages and evaluate the effectiveness of a handicapping strategy.

However, it's important to note that a larger sample size doesn't necessarily guarantee success, as there are many other factors that can influence the outcome of sports bets, such as team injuries, changes in coaching staff, and unexpected events. Therefore, it's crucial to use a systematic approach, analyze past performance, and continuously adjust and refine your handicapping strategy over time.

I do not feel greatly enlightened by this use of electrons; If this Chat dude was humanoid, I would not likely offer to buy him a drink. But there you go, FWIW.
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 25th, 2023 at 10:44:53 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead


Does this guy suck? Or not suck? [link to sportscapping RedditDude]


did you hear about the other Reddit dude that predicted 5 superfectas at Gulfstream yesterday___________?

Reddit is just an incredible site - full of amazing, amazing cappers - it's almost like they're - okay I'll say it_________ 𝙎𝙐𝙋𝙀𝙍𝙈𝙀𝙉


ʲᵘˢᵗ ᵏⁱᵈᵈⁱⁿᵍ

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2023 at 1:03:22 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I just got UConn win/ over 145.5 parlayed at +240 on Bet MGM. The ‘fair line ‘ on over/under is 153.5. This has to be an error, right guys? Bet max was limited to the bizarre amount of $58.01.
Different site I got UCONN -1.5 straight bet.

Before betting I really was going to root for Gonzaga. So taking everything into account it looks like a UConn win by one point in a low scoring game….
link to original post



Just checked for the hell of it. The boost I got +240 is now offered at +175. I know I’ll only win it around somewhere between 1/3 and 2/5, but it is certainly markedly +EV.

I’m wondering who made the original odds? I mean, they picked an alternate over/under so it must have been a human. Seems like a fireable offense?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 25th, 2023 at 1:35:16 PM permalink
.

Soopoo - I think you've been saying that you had an edge on parlays because they were mispriced

I believe you - but it seems kinna strange that books would make an error on something like that - something so easy to calculate

you prolly already know about this - but the link is a parlay calculator that will tell you the fair payout on up to an 8 team parlay on the money line


https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2023 at 2:11:53 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

Soopoo - I think you've been saying that you had an edge on parlays because they were mispriced

I believe you - but it seems kinna strange that books would make an error on something like that - something so easy to calculate

you prolly already know about this - but the link is a parlay calculator that will tell you the fair payout on up to an 8 team parlay on the money line


https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/


.
link to original post



This particular parlay was an offer. It was a slight favorite paired with an over/under that was a big favorite. I thought a fair line was +160 or so.

Most of my +EV parlay offers are due to the added stuff. Like make a $20 parlay and automatically get a $10 free bet. Or make a 3 leg parlay for $25 and if you hit 2 of 3 you get a $25 free bet as a consolation. So I didn’t have an advantage on the actual parlays. But if add up the value (slight negative) of the parlay itself with the bonus offered (positive) the overall sum is positive.

Also, I’m Diamond from Caesar’s solely due to my casino play. That’s $250 a year in cash to bet, plus free rooms, no resort fees, free parking, etc…So each bet I make I probably get 1% back in value as well.
gamerfreak
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March 25th, 2023 at 5:11:27 PM permalink
Am I missing something here? Both ML are positive for the same game, you can just hedge and profit?

Edit: I guess draws are common in Soccer

DRich
DRich
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March 25th, 2023 at 5:32:33 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Am I missing something here? Both ML are positive for the same game, you can just hedge and profit?



I am pretty sure you still lose on a draw.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
DRich
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March 25th, 2023 at 5:33:22 PM permalink
How about Florida Atlantic a nine seed being the first team to make the Final Four. That was exciting.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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March 25th, 2023 at 5:57:23 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Am I missing something here? Both ML are positive for the same game, you can just hedge and profit?



I am pretty sure you still lose on a draw.
link to original post


I ended up using a promotion and hedging completely. Seems like a low risk way to use the promo.


SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2023 at 8:15:26 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Am I missing something here? Both ML are positive for the same game, you can just hedge and profit?



I am pretty sure you still lose on a draw.
link to original post


I ended up using a promotion and hedging completely. Seems like a low risk way to use the promo.



link to original post



I haven’t gotten a 100% profit boost in a long time. When I was a VIP at Draft Kings they were pretty common. Those were free money…..

I hedged a ton on the under on UConn game tonight. Had to make $50 bet on Bet Rivers so started there under 153.5. In game, as it looked like a rout added under 151.5 twice. Under 147.5 twice. Tried 143.5 but it locked before it accepted my bet.
AxelWolf
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March 25th, 2023 at 8:22:44 PM permalink
What's your confidence level if one were to beat a coin flip pick over 1550 picks with a 1% vig only flat betting? +19 units
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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March 25th, 2023 at 8:24:44 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Am I missing something here? Both ML are positive for the same game, you can just hedge and profit?



I am pretty sure you still lose on a draw.
link to original post


I ended up using a promotion and hedging completely. Seems like a low risk way to use the promo.



link to original post



I haven’t gotten a 100% profit boost in a long time. When I was a VIP at Draft Kings they were pretty common. Those were free money…..

I hedged a ton on the under on UConn game tonight. Had to make $50 bet on Bet Rivers so started there under 153.5. In game, as it looked like a rout added under 151.5 twice. Under 147.5 twice. Tried 143.5 but it locked before it accepted my bet.
link to original post


The 100% boost is on Draftkings but its soccer only. They also run weekly casino offers that are ezpz $10-$20

I need to start checking FanDuel and others for similar
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2023 at 8:32:55 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What's your confidence level if one were to beat a coin flip pick over 1550 picks with a 1% vig only flat betting? +19 units
link to original post



Can I rephrase to see if I understand the question?

I know someone who bet 1 unit on 1550 coin flip type events. If he wins, he gets paid .99 units, if he loses, he loses 1 unit. What are the chances that he will be up 19 units after 1550 coin flips?

Rounded, you’d need to win 788 and lose 762 to achieve the result you want. I’ll let someone better at math see how rare that is but it is likely not even close to achieving any meaningful level of certainty that your guesser is guessing with a true advantage.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 25th, 2023 at 8:36:45 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Am I missing something here? Both ML are positive for the same game, you can just hedge and profit?



I am pretty sure you still lose on a draw.
link to original post


I ended up using a promotion and hedging completely. Seems like a low risk way to use the promo.



link to original post



I haven’t gotten a 100% profit boost in a long time. When I was a VIP at Draft Kings they were pretty common. Those were free money…..

I hedged a ton on the under on UConn game tonight. Had to make $50 bet on Bet Rivers so started there under 153.5. In game, as it looked like a rout added under 151.5 twice. Under 147.5 twice. Tried 143.5 but it locked before it accepted my bet.
link to original post


The 100% boost is on Draftkings but its soccer only. They also run weekly casino offers that are ezpz $10-$20

I need to start checking FanDuel and others for similar
link to original post



I am getting no such soccer offers from DK. It is very interesting the varied offers various players get in various states.

I’m jealous now……
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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March 25th, 2023 at 8:46:55 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Am I missing something here? Both ML are positive for the same game, you can just hedge and profit?



I am pretty sure you still lose on a draw.
link to original post


I ended up using a promotion and hedging completely. Seems like a low risk way to use the promo.



link to original post



I haven’t gotten a 100% profit boost in a long time. When I was a VIP at Draft Kings they were pretty common. Those were free money…..

I hedged a ton on the under on UConn game tonight. Had to make $50 bet on Bet Rivers so started there under 153.5. In game, as it looked like a rout added under 151.5 twice. Under 147.5 twice. Tried 143.5 but it locked before it accepted my bet.
link to original post


The 100% boost is on Draftkings but its soccer only. They also run weekly casino offers that are ezpz $10-$20

I need to start checking FanDuel and others for similar
link to original post



I am getting no such soccer offers from DK. It is very interesting the varied offers various players get in various states.

I’m jealous now……
link to original post


On Draftkings I was able to bet on Oscar results in NJ but not PA.

In NJ you can’t bet on college basketball games where a NJ team is playing.

Caesars Sportsbook makes you have a completely separate account in different states (at least between PA and NJ), where many other books don’t.

Lots of quirks with state laws.
billryan
billryan
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March 25th, 2023 at 10:56:34 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Am I missing something here? Both ML are positive for the same game, you can just hedge and profit?



I am pretty sure you still lose on a draw.
link to original post


I ended up using a promotion and hedging completely. Seems like a low risk way to use the promo.



link to original post



I haven’t gotten a 100% profit boost in a long time. When I was a VIP at Draft Kings they were pretty common. Those were free money…..

I hedged a ton on the under on UConn game tonight. Had to make $50 bet on Bet Rivers so started there under 153.5. In game, as it looked like a rout added under 151.5 twice. Under 147.5 twice. Tried 143.5 but it locked before it accepted my bet.
link to original post


The 100% boost is on Draftkings but its soccer only. They also run weekly casino offers that are ezpz $10-$20

I need to start checking FanDuel and others for similar
link to original post



I am getting no such soccer offers from DK. It is very interesting the varied offers various players get in various states.

I’m jealous now……
link to original post


On Draftkings I was able to bet on Oscar results in NJ but not PA.

In NJ you can’t bet on college basketball games where a NJ team is playing.

Caesars Sportsbook makes you have a completely separate account in different states (at least between PA and NJ), where many other books don’t.

Lots of quirks with state laws.
link to original post




Trying to run a business while being hobbled by thirty different sets of rules gets expensive.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 26th, 2023 at 2:17:54 AM permalink
.


reddit guy potd:


Texas - 4 (up to 5) over Miami_________5:05 ET


right now several books show 4 and FanDuel and MGM show 3.5 per vegasinsider.com

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
DRich
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March 26th, 2023 at 5:39:28 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.


reddit guy potd:


Texas - 4 (up to 5) over Miami_________5:05 ET


right now several books show 4 and FanDuel and MGM show 3.5 per vegasinsider.com

.
link to original post



I will be rooting for Miami as I have a lot of respect for coach larranaga ever since he was at Bowling Green. If coach Beard didn't get fired during the season for Texas I would be rooting for them.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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March 26th, 2023 at 6:34:09 AM permalink
His whole spiel -

Quote:

Uconn really made Gonzaga look like a high school team - quite the dominant 30+ lead performance from Uconn to crush the zags in the 2nd half. Now - I had florida to beat houston in the last round, and that was largely due to the nature of the what the teams were good at, but I think Texas is a more well rounded team, and I think Texas comes through tomorrow.

POTD Record: 32-9-1
Last 25:✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅

Yesterday's POTD: Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Uconn Huskies -1.5 (up to -4) | 3U✅

Today's POTD: Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas Longhorns -4 (up to -5) | 3U

Time: March 26, 5:10PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +59U in 40 days | ≈69.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠As always, these teams all have strong factors about them that you could argue either side of these final games, and historically some of the hardest to predict. If you have a gut pick on the other side - don't be afraid to run with it.
2. ⁠First, let's look at the high level stats. Texas ais currently ranked 6 under Bart Torvik, compared to Miami ranked 27. This is driven by #9 defense (compared to #107 for miami) and #16 offense (compared to #7 for miami florida). Historically, teams with more balanced offense and defense have consistently performed better than others - note Gonzaga who really is an offense only team, and when that goes cold, you have nothing to fall back on.
3. ⁠Next, Kenpom, which has texas ranked #5, compared to 26 for Miami. This is driven largely by adjusted offense of #15 (compared to #6 for miami), and #10 adjusted defense (compared to #104 for miami).
4. ⁠Miami relies very heavily on the 3 point shot - and this is something that can easily go cold in this tournament (again, see gonzaga, #1 in offensne, going 2/20 from 3). Texas has held opponents to 30% from three, and I expect florida to struggle, or be forced to work harder to find good three opportunities. This tournament, Texas has kept 3 point shooting at 18 of 60.
5. ⁠Of course - Disu may be injured, and likely will be playing less minutes, if at all. This would be scary against paint teams, but fortunately, Disu will not be as important against a team like Miami who rely on permitter shooting. Miami is averaging less than 30 points inside the paint this tournament, and if they can't get the three going, they will struggle to put up offense.
6. ⁠Texas has been shooting exceptionally well from 3 as of late, which is out of character for them, demonstrating their ability to adapt well to different pressure, and always find ways to win.
7. ⁠Texas scored 40% of their points against Penn state in the mid range, which Miamiis ranked #360 at defending. They rely heavily on teams either taking threes or running to the rim, but Texas will take advantage of this with fast paced jumpers.
8. ⁠Christian Bishop has been a texas secret weapon, putting up 17 points off the bench - texas has a much better 6th man than miami's Anthony Walker, and in any foul trouble, Texas will have the advantage.
9. ⁠Texas are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7, compared to Miami who are 2-4 ATS. Many people are riding the Miami train from their recent upset over Houston - but having watched the game, I don't think Miami played particularly incredible, but Houston just really fell apart. Texas, having lost their big man, rallied to dominate Xavier, and I expect them to have a much stronger mental when faced with adversity.
10. ⁠Overall, Texas is a long, deep and very well rounded team. Miami is riding a crazy upset, and I just don't think teams that have come off an unexpected upset have been able to keep that pace (see Princeton, Gonzaga, FDU, Arkansas). Miami will have to keep up a crazy pace to keep up with a Texas team, and although this game can go either way, I see texas taking the dub and covering the spread. As always, ML is also a good option as the spread isnt too huge.

Reminder: As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee | Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2023 at 6:57:09 AM permalink
Bad news for the pick today…. It is my pick also!
Texas ML is in all of my parlays…. I’ll make some straight bets on Texas minus the points as well to jump on board.

My favorite bet of the day is Zambia/Sierra Leone soccer parlay.
I always bet against teams playing Lesotho and São Tomé e Principe…
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2023 at 12:11:13 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Bad news for the pick today…. It is my pick also!
Texas ML is in all of my parlays…. I’ll make some straight bets on Texas minus the points as well to jump on board.

My favorite bet of the day is Zambia/Sierra Leone soccer parlay.
I always bet against teams playing Lesotho and São Tomé e Principe…
link to original post

.
$5 in my pocket from soccer….

I have a bunch of parlays either over 133.5 or under 134.5 on Creighton game. Who else is watching the game rooting for a total of 134?
DRich
DRich
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March 26th, 2023 at 12:50:15 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

Bad news for the pick today…. It is my pick also!
Texas ML is in all of my parlays…. I’ll make some straight bets on Texas minus the points as well to jump on board.

My favorite bet of the day is Zambia/Sierra Leone soccer parlay.
I always bet against teams playing Lesotho and São Tomé e Principe…
link to original post

.
$5 in my pocket from soccer….

I have a bunch of parlays either over 133.5 or under 134.5 on Creighton game. Who else is watching the game rooting for a total of 134?
link to original post



It looks like it might require overtime to get to 134.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2023 at 1:59:48 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

Bad news for the pick today…. It is my pick also!
Texas ML is in all of my parlays…. I’ll make some straight bets on Texas minus the points as well to jump on board.

My favorite bet of the day is Zambia/Sierra Leone soccer parlay.
I always bet against teams playing Lesotho and São Tomé e Principe…
link to original post

.
$5 in my pocket from soccer….

I have a bunch of parlays either over 133.5 or under 134.5 on Creighton game. Who else is watching the game rooting for a total of 134?
link to original post



It looks like it might require overtime to get to 134.
link to original post

.

There is incessant chatter about whether or not the last play was a foul or not as usual misses the point. How STUPID of the defender to put his hand on the shooter’s hip! It does nothing to stop the shot, and gives the refs the opportunity to give the game winning free throws to the shooter. There were around a dozen time outs in the last minute but I guess no coach emphasized the ‘no stupid foul’ idea to the defenders.
Charles Barkley correctly noticed that the trivial contact was not enough to alter the obviously short armed shot.

Bigger parlay dead. Smaller parlay alive. Oh well.
billryan
billryan
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March 26th, 2023 at 3:14:57 PM permalink
That trivial contact was enough to knock him off balance as he fell during the follow thru. It was a rough way to lose.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
DRich
DRich
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March 26th, 2023 at 4:30:59 PM permalink
Final Four all set.

Strange, a #4 seed, #5 seed, #5 seed, and a #9 seed. We probably won't see that again in our lifetimes.

I am rooting for SDSU and Miami. I assume UConn is the favorite.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 26th, 2023 at 6:31:26 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Final Four all set.

Strange, a #4 seed, #5 seed, #5 seed, and a #9 seed. We probably won't see that again in our lifetimes.

I am rooting for SDSU and Miami. I assume UConn is the favorite.
link to original post



I haven’t the slightest idea who will win. But our Reddit guy missed today. I got lucky but only because the BetMGM Lions Boost was Miami to win by 1-10 at +320. I hated the bet but it seemed quite +EV, so made it. Helped a lot to offset every parlay I lost…

I did have one small bet on 3 or 4 number 1 seeds to make the final 4. The Bet was kept open even after two lost, I think to humiliate me for making the bet. It was at +900. Now I know why…..
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 27th, 2023 at 2:26:36 AM permalink
.

reddit guy potd:


Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres over 7


right now vegasinsider.com is showing 6 books paying +105 to +115 on that bet


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 27th, 2023 at 4:37:15 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

reddit guy potd:


Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres over 7


right now vegasinsider.com is showing 6 books paying +105 to +115 on that bet


.
link to original post



My same response as yesterday. Bad news for the pick as I like it a lot! Both teams are lacking quality goaltending.
Sabres 6. Canadians 4.
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