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SOOPOO
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April 28th, 2023 at 12:56:05 PM permalink
Grizzlies have lost their last 16 games when underdogs on the road. The Lakers are -200 favorites. Seems too easy?

Braves pitcher (Fried) has been giving up no runs. Mets pitcher (Peterson) has an ERA over 7! You can get the Braves at -130. Seems too easy?

My Knicks to win the Championship at 100-1 is looking good! They are now around 20-1. Julius Randle ankle injury is big. And Jimmy Butler just had two games in a row for the ages.

Edit…. FD has Lakers ML parlayed with Anthony Davis double/double at +100. He will score 10+ points unless he gets injured. His O/U on rebounds is 13.5. This has to be a +EV bet. I even think he gets more rebounds than usual as coaches may play the stars a bit more in a close out game.
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Apr 28, 2023
SOOPOO
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April 28th, 2023 at 9:16:12 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Grizzlies have lost their last 16 games when underdogs on the road. The Lakers are -200 favorites. Seems too easy?

Braves pitcher (Fried) has been giving up no runs. Mets pitcher (Peterson) has an ERA over 7! You can get the Braves at -130. Seems too easy?

My Knicks to win the Championship at 100-1 is looking good! They are now around 20-1. Julius Randle ankle injury is big. And Jimmy Butler just had two games in a row for the ages.

Edit…. FD has Lakers ML parlayed with Anthony Davis double/double at +100. He will score 10+ points unless he gets injured. His O/U on rebounds is 13.5. This has to be a +EV bet. I even think he gets more rebounds than usual as coaches may play the stars a bit more in a close out game.
link to original post



That was easy money! Fried shutout Mets through 5. Braves scored 4 through 5. Then the rain came but not until it was an official game.

Anthony Davis had his double/double by halftime! Lakers are up 20 or so. So unless miracle comeback, Grizzlies will be the first team in NBA history to win zero games as a road underdog.
lilredrooster
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April 29th, 2023 at 1:36:04 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Grizzlies have lost their last 16 games when underdogs on the road. The Lakers are -200 favorites. Seems too easy?

Braves pitcher (Fried) has been giving up no runs. Mets pitcher (Peterson) has an ERA over 7! You can get the Braves at -130. Seems too easy?


very, very nice calls

I too am leery of picks that seem too easy - and quite a few times I've tanked on them

but this time you were on the money - congrats




today the Giants/Padres game has an o/u of 15 or 15.5
the pitchers are bad this year but not previous years and not that bad this year
the highest I've seen this year on an o/u is 12.5
I don't ever recall seeing an o/u set like that in the MLB
I don't get it - somebody knows something that I don't know


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 29, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 29th, 2023 at 5:40:50 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Grizzlies have lost their last 16 games when underdogs on the road. The Lakers are -200 favorites. Seems too easy?

Braves pitcher (Fried) has been giving up no runs. Mets pitcher (Peterson) has an ERA over 7! You can get the Braves at -130. Seems too easy?


very, very nice calls

I too am leery of picks that seem too easy - and quite a few times I've tanked on them

but this time you were on the money - congrats




today the Giants/Padres game has an o/u of 15 or 15.5
the pitchers are bad this year but not previous years and not that bad this year
the highest I've seen this year on an o/u is 12.5
I don't ever recall seeing an o/u set like that in the MLB
I don't get it - somebody knows something that I don't know


.
link to original post




Musgrove versus Manaea. A few years back would have been considered ‘a pitchers matchup’. Both struggling recently. Combined ERAs this year around 12. But that’s far less than the 15.5 on BetMGM. I bet the under. Most likely a -EV bet. Padres 8, Giants 7?
billryan
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April 29th, 2023 at 7:39:25 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Grizzlies have lost their last 16 games when underdogs on the road. The Lakers are -200 favorites. Seems too easy?

Braves pitcher (Fried) has been giving up no runs. Mets pitcher (Peterson) has an ERA over 7! You can get the Braves at -130. Seems too easy?


very, very nice calls

I too am leery of picks that seem too easy - and quite a few times I've tanked on them

but this time you were on the money - congrats




today the Giants/Padres game has an o/u of 15 or 15.5
the pitchers are bad this year but not previous years and not that bad this year
the highest I've seen this year on an o/u is 12.5
I don't ever recall seeing an o/u set like that in the MLB
I don't get it - somebody knows something that I don't know


.
link to original post




The games are in Mexico City. The elevation is 7500 feet. Not only do balls travel further, but curve balls hang and the dimensions of the field aren't exactly MLB like.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
DRich
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April 29th, 2023 at 9:31:08 AM permalink
Quote: billryan



The games are in Mexico City. The elevation is 7500 feet. Not only do balls travel further, but curve balls hang and the dimensions of the field aren't exactly MLB like.
link to original post



Exactly. The under is probably a suckers bet but there is no way I would be the over either.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 29th, 2023 at 10:00:56 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Grizzlies have lost their last 16 games when underdogs on the road. The Lakers are -200 favorites. Seems too easy?

Braves pitcher (Fried) has been giving up no runs. Mets pitcher (Peterson) has an ERA over 7! You can get the Braves at -130. Seems too easy?


very, very nice calls

I too am leery of picks that seem too easy - and quite a few times I've tanked on them

but this time you were on the money - congrats




today the Giants/Padres game has an o/u of 15 or 15.5
the pitchers are bad this year but not previous years and not that bad this year
the highest I've seen this year on an o/u is 12.5
I don't ever recall seeing an o/u set like that in the MLB
I don't get it - somebody knows something that I don't know


.
link to original post




The games are in Mexico City. The elevation is 7500 feet. Not only do balls travel further, but curve balls hang and the dimensions of the field aren't exactly MLB like.
link to original post



LOL. A sucker is born every minute! And that sucker is me! Luckily I don’t bet much.

I made two big bets this morning. I got the Nuggets to win their series at +115. And Suns to beat them at -115. I get around .2% in cash comps so a very small guaranteed win. But helps me a lot in ‘tier credits’ for the two web sites. 5 minutes after I got the bets in you can only get +110 and -120. So I just beat the clock.

Lucky soccer win this morning. Brentford down 1-0 with maybe 15 minutes to play. Dumb Nottingham Forest coach uses all his subs…. Then player gets injured…. Playing with 10…. Brentford comes back to score two goals to win. I’ve always though I would always keep one sub available in case of injury….
SOOPOO
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April 29th, 2023 at 5:16:45 PM permalink
It’s still in the 5th inning and already 17 runs, 7 home runs in the Mexico City game.

Lost my small under bet, but more than made up for it on FanDuel offer of +130 on run to be scored in both first and second inning.

I wonder if any pitchers beg off from playing… ?
DRich
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April 29th, 2023 at 5:17:28 PM permalink
The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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April 29th, 2023 at 5:26:22 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
DRich
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April 29th, 2023 at 5:29:12 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
link to original post



I would take that bet for a small amount. You realize there are 2429 other games this season. There was 49 runs scored in a game in 1922 and I probably had the under in that game.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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April 29th, 2023 at 5:30:58 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
link to original post



It's the first game of a series so I'll take that bet for one dollar.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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April 30th, 2023 at 12:59:29 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster


today the Giants/Padres game has an o/u of 15 or 15.5
I don't ever recall seeing an o/u set like that in the MLB
I don't get it - somebody knows something that I don't know


Quote: gamerfreak


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.


Padres 16 - Giants 11______________________________somebody knew something for sure

the over was a great bet that I didn't make___________________surprise, surprise, surprise

gamerfreak may win that bet but he has to get past today

_____________the o/u for today's game same 2 teams same place is 𝟐𝟎.𝟓

And Yu Davrish has an ERA of 3.00 and that of Alex Cobb is 1.91


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 30, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 30th, 2023 at 6:32:34 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster


today the Giants/Padres game has an o/u of 15 or 15.5
I don't ever recall seeing an o/u set like that in the MLB
I don't get it - somebody knows something that I don't know


Quote: gamerfreak


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.


Padres 16 - Giants 11______________________________somebody knew something for sure

the over was a great bet that I didn't make___________________surprise, surprise, surprise

gamerfreak may win that bet but he has to get past today

_____________the o/u for today's game same 2 teams same place is 𝟐𝟎.𝟓

And Yu Davrish has an ERA of 3.00 and that of Alex Cobb is 1.91


.
link to original post



I’m going with the under! Those are two good pitchers.

MGM lion boost yesterday was winner. Rangers/over 5.5. Paid plus 290. Was slightly +EV. Made up for my ‘best bet’ of Suns +3.5. My bad beat was Durant/Booker combining for 60. They were easily on the way until they were both pulled with over 4 minutes to go as Suns were down 20. I had one 4 leg parlay that had 3 hits and needed Booker over 27.5. He was pulled with 27…..
PenguinsOfPit
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April 30th, 2023 at 1:46:08 PM permalink
I took the under 210 Heat/Knicks game. I won but never again. Tom Thibodeau doing late fouls when the Knicks were zero percent to win was incredibly suspicious. That shit happens so often it’s unbelievable
gamerfreak
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April 30th, 2023 at 1:50:24 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
link to original post



It's the first game of a series so I'll take that bet for one dollar.
link to original post


Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
link to original post



I would take that bet for a small amount. You realize there are 2429 other games this season. There was 49 runs scored in a game in 1922 and I probably had the under in that game.
link to original post



If either of you, or any other established member, want to take the bet for a silly amount like $1-$5

PM me
DRich
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April 30th, 2023 at 4:30:49 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: billryan

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
link to original post



It's the first game of a series so I'll take that bet for one dollar.
link to original post


Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
link to original post



I would take that bet for a small amount. You realize there are 2429 other games this season. There was 49 runs scored in a game in 1922 and I probably had the under in that game.
link to original post



If either of you, or any other established member, want to take the bet for a silly amount like $1-$5

PM me
link to original post



I will gladly bet it for up to $5. If I lose you will have to remind me because I will never remember this bet (assuming I lose).
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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April 30th, 2023 at 5:31:31 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: billryan

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
link to original post



It's the first game of a series so I'll take that bet for one dollar.
link to original post


Quote: DRich

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: DRich

The Padres lead 10 to 8 in the fifth inning.
link to original post


I would take a wager with anyone that it will be the highest scoring game of the MLB season.
link to original post



I would take that bet for a small amount. You realize there are 2429 other games this season. There was 49 runs scored in a game in 1922 and I probably had the under in that game.
link to original post



If either of you, or any other established member, want to take the bet for a silly amount like $1-$5

PM me
link to original post



I will gladly bet it for up to $5. If I lose you will have to remind me because I will never remember this bet (assuming I lose).
link to original post


Sounds good. The bet is that no 2023 regular season MLB game will have more than 27 runs. The bet will resolve Oct 1st I believe.
SOOPOO
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May 1st, 2023 at 7:13:29 AM permalink
Quote: PenguinsOfPit

I took the under 210 Heat/Knicks game. I won but never again. Tom Thibodeau doing late fouls when the Knicks were zero percent to win was incredibly suspicious. That shit happens so often it’s unbelievable
link to original post



Since you know it happens so often then why don’t you take advantage of that knowledge? If I see a game is going to be close but one team seems to be in control by 5-10 points I go over because of the stupid fouling. If it’s a runaway of over 15 the leading team slows it down so go under. Betting pre game is just a guess of course.

Dismal day yesterday for me! I liked Avs, Bruins, over in the Avs game. Was going to win big bet of the day, 4 team parlay, until BJ’s blew 4 run lead.

I do have Leafs to win the Cup and that’s looking a little better with Bruins on the sidelines. First goal Swayman gave up made you wonder why Vezina winning goalie is on the bench!
DRich
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May 1st, 2023 at 7:57:44 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

First goal Swayman gave up made you wonder why Vezina winning goalie is on the bench!



I know Vezina had been "struggling" a little bit but I really thought in a game 7 you had to go with the guy that got you there.

With the Bruins and Avs both out I think the likely Stanley Cup winner will be the winner of the Oilers-Knights series.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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May 1st, 2023 at 11:48:14 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

First goal Swayman gave up made you wonder why Vezina winning goalie is on the bench!



I know Vezina had been "struggling" a little bit but I really thought in a game 7 you had to go with the guy that got you there.

With the Bruins and Avs both out I think the likely Stanley Cup winner will be the winner of the Oilers-Knights series.
link to original post



I have NOT looked at any odds. But I’ll bet you ANY amount of money the winner of the Vegas/Edmonton series does not win the Cup. That team would have to beat both the Kraken and Maple Leafs. (Guessssss…). Probably fair odds is +230.
DRich
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May 1st, 2023 at 1:29:32 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

First goal Swayman gave up made you wonder why Vezina winning goalie is on the bench!



I know Vezina had been "struggling" a little bit but I really thought in a game 7 you had to go with the guy that got you there.

With the Bruins and Avs both out I think the likely Stanley Cup winner will be the winner of the Oilers-Knights series.
link to original post



I have NOT looked at any odds. But I’ll bet you ANY amount of money the winner of the Vegas/Edmonton series does not win the Cup. That team would have to beat both the Kraken and Maple Leafs. (Guessssss…). Probably fair odds is +230.
link to original post



The Oilers are the second favorite to win the cup and the Knights are fourth. If you want to bet I will give you both the Kraken and the Leafs against Oilers and Knights for another coffee. Probably a pretty fair bet. I personally don't think the Kraken have much of a chance but the Leafs are the favorite.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
odiousgambit
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May 1st, 2023 at 2:11:34 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I do have Leafs to win the Cup and that’s looking a little better with Bruins on the sidelines. First goal Swayman gave up made you wonder why Vezina winning goalie is on the bench!
link to original post

Ullmark' stats in the 6 games were 3.33 goals against av, with 0.896 save percent. If that was the regular season record for a goalie he wouldn't be guaranteed a job next season. Funny thing is, I'm not sure there was a goal he allowed where you would have said he should have had a save. [not that I watched them all]

Bobrovsky's stats were even worse in 5 games, so it's hard to say Bruins got run over by a hot goalie
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
PenguinsOfPit
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May 1st, 2023 at 7:15:57 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: PenguinsOfPit

I took the under 210 Heat/Knicks game. I won but never again. Tom Thibodeau doing late fouls when the Knicks were zero percent to win was incredibly suspicious. That shit happens so often it’s unbelievable
link to original post



Since you know it happens so often then why don’t you take advantage of that knowledge? If I see a game is going to be close but one team seems to be in control by 5-10 points I go over because of the stupid fouling. If it’s a runaway of over 15 the leading team slows it down so go under. Betting pre game is just a guess of course.

Dismal day yesterday for me! I liked Avs, Bruins, over in the Avs game. Was going to win big bet of the day, 4 team parlay, until BJ’s blew 4 run lead.

I do have Leafs to win the Cup and that’s looking a little better with Bruins on the sidelines. First goal Swayman gave up made you wonder why Vezina winning goalie is on the bench!
link to original post




I sometimes do live lines but they usually up the juice on those. -115 seems to be more the standard on those. I also thought it would start pretty slow
SOOPOO
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May 2nd, 2023 at 3:59:38 PM permalink
BetMGM had Knicks/Yankees parlay at +160. Allowed me around $67. I can never figure out how they decide to cap me. This is very +EV. Announcement Butler not playing. New odds they are offering is +115. That may still be +EV.

My (probably -EV) bet of the night is Gabe Vincent over 14.5 points. He must get more time/more looks with Butler out. I got him over 13.5 in parlays before the Butler announcement.

Needed a long shot hockey bet. Stars ML under 3.5 total goals parlay. Probably 2-2 after 1st period……
SOOPOO
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May 2nd, 2023 at 7:36:56 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

BetMGM had Knicks/Yankees parlay at +160. Allowed me around $67. I can never figure out how they decide to cap me. This is very +EV. Announcement Butler not playing. New odds they are offering is +115. That may still be +EV.

My (probably -EV) bet of the night is Gabe Vincent over 14.5 points. He must get more time/more looks with Butler out. I got him over 13.5 in parlays before the Butler announcement.

Needed a long shot hockey bet. Stars ML under 3.5 total goals parlay. Probably 2-2 after 1st period……
link to original post



Knicks Yanks both win.
Vincent scores 21.

Stars Kraken were 2-2….. but ended 1st period 4-2.
gamerfreak
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May 3rd, 2023 at 2:45:02 AM permalink
There were 5 MLB games last night where the RL -1.5 favorite won by only 1 run.
DRich
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May 3rd, 2023 at 5:00:41 AM permalink
How about Pavelski scoring four goals for the Stars last night? Probably pretty rare for one guy to score four goals and the rest of the team did not score at all in a 5-4 loss.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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May 3rd, 2023 at 9:26:14 AM permalink
I had parlay offer today. Boosted on Caesars. The regular -110 line on 76ersCeltics was +/- 10 points. Even without Embiid it seemed a bit high so I took 76ers +10. I go to MGM to check my offers and there the line is 7.5 points! There must be inside info that Embiid is playing. I have to say I’m usually on the wrong side of these events, but I’m happy to get the extra 2.5 points.

I’m also going the other side on MGM with Tatum over 29.5 parlayed with Celtics ML at + 145. I think Harden’s ridiculous game was an aberration.

So…. High scoring Celtics win by 9 points or less…..
DRich
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odiousgambit
May 4th, 2023 at 7:07:26 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

How about Pavelski scoring four goals for the Stars last night? Probably pretty rare for one guy to score four goals and the rest of the team did not score at all in a 5-4 loss.
link to original post



I guess it is not as rare as I thought as it happened again last night. Leon Draisaitl scored four goals last night for the Oilers and it was the only goals scored by the team and the team lost. Two days in a row.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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May 4th, 2023 at 7:35:56 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: DRich

How about Pavelski scoring four goals for the Stars last night? Probably pretty rare for one guy to score four goals and the rest of the team did not score at all in a 5-4 loss.
link to original post



I guess it is not as rare as I thought as it happened again last night. Leon Draisaitl scored four goals last night for the Oilers and it was the only goals scored by the team and the team lost. Two days in a row.
link to original post



My ‘Pavelski and Draisaitl to score 4 in losing effort’ parlay paid me $1,000,000,000 on my $1 bet.

I was 2 for 24 last night. Most bets were 2 or 3 leg parlays, and most were with favorites! I think I was a few standard deviations to the negative…..
Lost two separate parlays with teams blowing 9th inning leads.
For the smart ones on here who make $$ by fading me, I have Lakers +6. The teams look even to me. I like that Coach Ham is not afraid to play his stars (Davis mostly) big minutes, way more than he’d play him in a regular season game.
I also (recency bias?) love the Celtics over the 76ers next game. Celts only a point favorite. I would have thought 3 or 4.

I occasionally make VERY SMALL bets on the Caesars boosts just for interest in some afternoon games, often soccer. I know they tend to be -EV. They give you a better payout than if you just parlay the outcomes, but not enough to overcome the multiplied juice. Today on soccer they had one that was +1100…. I did the math and I think it was +EV…. Went to bet it …. And it ‘locked’ as I tried…. I guess someone beat me to the punch…. It’s now available for +900….
DRich
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May 4th, 2023 at 10:13:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



My ‘Pavelski and Draisaitl to score 4 in losing effort’ parlay paid me $1,000,000,000 on my $1 bet.



I still think you may have taken a bad number on that bet.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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May 4th, 2023 at 6:09:48 PM permalink
So watching one of those betting shows…. Apparently home team losing first game of a series is 15-2 ATS, 16-1 straight up in last 17 such occurrences. I’m not so happy about my Lakers pick…..
billryan
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May 4th, 2023 at 11:33:58 PM permalink
Strange times at 'Bama. Some strange bets caused several books to suspend betting on the baseball team and a few days later the coach was fired. A basketball player was allowed to keep playing after bringing a gun to a club that ended up being used in a homicide.
I can't imagine what it takes to get fired.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
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May 5th, 2023 at 5:09:05 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Strange times at 'Bama. Some strange bets caused several books to suspend betting on the baseball team and a few days later the coach was fired. A basketball player was allowed to keep playing after bringing a gun to a club that ended up being used in a homicide.
I can't imagine what it takes to get fired.
link to original post



Sounds like the baseball coach committed a crime.
He was an employee of the university. It was a no brainer.

The basketball player incident was fully investigated, right? And no charges, right? It sounds silly, but technically the player is no more than a student participating in a university sanctioned after school activity. You want to summarily deny the young man his chance to get an education? (I wonder if he actually ever set foot in a classroom….)

The baseball coach incident is in the early stages of the investigation but it sounds like they have damning evidence.

I think I bet $1 once on an ‘SEC baseball parlay’. I know I lost, but don’t remember which team lost for me. I ‘think’ it was Alabama! I should sue for the $10 or so I’m out…..
lilredrooster
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May 8th, 2023 at 2:18:07 AM permalink
.

another one that looks too easy - Warriors/Lakers

Warriors are a miserable 13-33 on the road - Lakers have won all 4 playoff games at home and overall are 28-18 at home

I'll pick the Lakers 3 times the usual bet size at -160 on the money line__________betting $150 will get $93.75 in profit if win

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 8, 2023
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PenguinsOfPit
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May 8th, 2023 at 4:43:53 PM permalink
That 13-33 is irrelevant. Wiggins is back and playing well plus they did win games 5 and 7 in Sacramento. If any team can “flip the switch” it’s GS
SOOPOO
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May 8th, 2023 at 5:57:08 PM permalink
Quote: PenguinsOfPit

That 13-33 is irrelevant. Wiggins is back and playing well plus they did win games 5 and 7 in Sacramento. If any team can “flip the switch” it’s GS
link to original post



To me the relevant factors are how the Lakers are playing WITH THE PLAYERS THEY HAVE NOW. The majority of their dismal play was before the trade deadline. After the trade deadline they’ve been about the best team in the league. You can almost say the same thing about the Warriors. Now that I think about it, the Suns as well.

Lilred…. Not sure what Sportsbook you use. I see -130 on mine.

I’m having fun making a dollar here or a quarter there. Two different EPL games. Both with 3 goal deficits in second half. Laid 80-1 and 100-1. The shorter odds one only had 7 minutes plus stoppage time left. I was stunned they even had a market.

I guess I’ll get caught at some point like all ‘bridge jumpers’ do….
lilredrooster
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May 9th, 2023 at 2:25:45 AM permalink
.

during the regular season the Warriors were 33-8 at home and 11-30 away
they won 80.4% of their games at home and lost 73% of their games away
I don't know of any NBA team ever that has showed such an extreme difference between home and away
it might have happened - but not that I'm aware of

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billryan
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May 9th, 2023 at 6:08:53 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

during the regular season the Warriors were 33-8 at home and 11-30 away
they won 80.4% of their games at home and lost 73% of their games away
I don't know of any NBA team ever that has showed such an extreme difference between home and away
it might have happened - but not that I'm aware of

.
link to original post



It sounds like they have worked out a formula for success. The only thing that matters about the NBA regular season is that you survive and get to the playoff tournament healthy.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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May 9th, 2023 at 7:52:40 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: lilredrooster

.

during the regular season the Warriors were 33-8 at home and 11-30 away
they won 80.4% of their games at home and lost 73% of their games away
I don't know of any NBA team ever that has showed such an extreme difference between home and away
it might have happened - but not that I'm aware of

.
link to original post



The only thing that matters about the NBA regular season is that you survive and get to the playoff tournament healthy.





so very wrong


Warriors - current - 53.7% wins regular season


2022 Champs - Warriors - 64.6% wins regular season

2021 Champs - Suns - 70.8% wins regular season

2020 Champs - Lakers - 73.2% wins regular season

2019 Champs - Warriors - 69.5% wins regular season

2018 Champs Warriors - 70.7% wins regular season

2017 Champs - Warriors - 81.7% wins regular season


if you're not a monster during the regular season you're not going to become a monster in the Playoffs


.
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mcallister3200
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May 9th, 2023 at 8:51:02 AM permalink
Past 26 champions and 45 of 46 since the merger have finished top 3 in the conference. The exception had won the title the prior year. It sort of matters….and if it doesn’t this year it’s clearly a historical outlier.

It’s fair to point out that the Warriors take as many or more “rest forfeits” on the road than other NBA teams, frequently sitting two out of the three of their 33 year old stars all of whom have significant injury histories. Toronto specifically has been gifted a number of these wins. Doesn’t entirely explain the road record this year but it’s a factor, like if it’s a short road trip with.

Whatever narratives we want to make about how this year is different, what lilred pointed out is correct historically, and most likely will be this year.

The home court advantage matters more late imo due to the compounding fatigue factor, lower seeded teams generally having faced a tougher road to get there.

Title winner is almost always the healthiest of the contenders at that point in the playoffs, the title is determined at least as much by who isn’t on the court that theoretically could have been than who is.
Last edited by: mcallister3200 on May 9, 2023
mcallister3200
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May 9th, 2023 at 9:03:39 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

Quote: lilredrooster

.

during the regular season the Warriors were 33-8 at home and 11-30 away
they won 80.4% of their games at home and lost 73% of their games away
I don't know of any NBA team ever that has showed such an extreme difference between home and away
it might have happened - but not that I'm aware of

.
link to original post



The only thing that matters about the NBA regular season is that you survive and get to the playoff tournament healthy.





so very wrong


Warriors - current - 53.7% wins regular season


2022 Champs - Warriors - 64.6% wins regular season

2021 Champs - Suns - 70.8% wins regular season

2020 Champs - Lakers - 73.2% wins regular season

2019 Champs - Warriors - 69.5% wins regular season

2018 Champs Warriors - 70.7% wins regular season

2017 Champs - Warriors - 81.7% wins regular season


if you're not a monster during the regular season you're not going to become a monster in the Playoffs


.
link to original post



Typo suns for bucks up there.

Counterpoint is whether it’s an outlier or the new normal, there are few monsters in the NBA currently, no “great teams.”

There were ZERO 60 win teams and 2!!! 55 win teams this season, 3 hit 52 win threshold and highest win total Milwaukee is gone.

Denver, Boston, Philly only teams left with credible regular season contender resumes. 52 wins (prorated for 82 gm season) is the historical seperation of pretenders from contenders, 42 of last 43 champions have done so.
PenguinsOfPit
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May 9th, 2023 at 11:40:12 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

Quote: lilredrooster

.

during the regular season the Warriors were 33-8 at home and 11-30 away
they won 80.4% of their games at home and lost 73% of their games away
I don't know of any NBA team ever that has showed such an extreme difference between home and away
it might have happened - but not that I'm aware of

.
link to original post



The only thing that matters about the NBA regular season is that you survive and get to the playoff tournament healthy.





so very wrong


Warriors - current - 53.7% wins regular season


2022 Champs - Warriors - 64.6% wins regular season

2021 Champs - Suns - 70.8% wins regular season

2020 Champs - Lakers - 73.2% wins regular season

2019 Champs - Warriors - 69.5% wins regular season

2018 Champs Warriors - 70.7% wins regular season

2017 Champs - Warriors - 81.7% wins regular season


if you're not a monster during the regular season you're not going to become a monster in the Playoffs


.
link to original post



Typo suns for bucks up there.

Counterpoint is whether it’s an outlier or the new normal, there are few monsters in the NBA currently, no “great teams.”

There were ZERO 60 win teams and 2!!! 55 win teams this season, 3 hit 52 win threshold and highest win total Milwaukee is gone.

Denver, Boston, Philly only teams left with credible regular season contender resumes. 52 wins (prorated for 82 gm season) is the historical seperation of pretenders from contenders, 42 of last 43 champions have done so.
link to original post




Load Management kills the argument about great teams needing a large amount of wins. You can make a case that these great teams may never get to show it sometimes because they take it easy in the regular season and a key guy or two gets hurt in the post season. This happened to the Bucks but with the addition of Coach Bud being garbage
lilredrooster
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May 10th, 2023 at 1:42:44 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

52 wins (prorated for 82 gm season) is the historical seperation of pretenders from contenders, 42 of last 43 champions have done so.


Warriors - 44 wins this season

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odiousgambit
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May 10th, 2023 at 2:14:01 AM permalink
NHL .... betMGM had Hurricanes at +135 underdogs. I had to take that, plus dug into the 'other bets' and got a puck line bet too, Hurricanes -1.5 and +300 .... sweet!

Looks like the oddsmakers forgot Carolina was ahead in this series and got excited over how bad the Devils beat them this one game they won last time. I'm sure the betting was heavy too but I don't see it making the line move that much.

You know what though? One thing I've learned is the oddsmakers are eerily right on these things most of the time. Caught them wrong for once.

And I'm watching and the first thing that happens is a bad turnover and a Devils goal. Those eerily good oddsmakers were looming large for me in that moment LOL!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
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May 10th, 2023 at 2:53:12 AM permalink
.

Rays/Orioles over 9.5 - even money - DraftKings right now - looks like a great bet to me

2 weak pitchers and the 2 teams average 11.5 runs per game when you add them together

I guess they set this total considering that on Monday and Tuesday they played each other and scored only 9 runs total in both games

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 10, 2023
Please don't feed the trolls
AxelWolf
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May 10th, 2023 at 3:49:55 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

Rays/Orioles over 9.5 - even money - DraftKings right now - looks like a great bet to me

2 weak pitchers and the 2 teams average 11.5 runs per game when you add them together

I guess they set this total considering that on Monday and Tuesday they played each other and scored only 9 runs total in both games

.
link to original post

I put down $400.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
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May 10th, 2023 at 4:28:13 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

.

Rays/Orioles over 9.5 - even money - DraftKings right now - looks like a great bet to me

2 weak pitchers and the 2 teams average 11.5 runs per game when you add them together

I guess they set this total considering that on Monday and Tuesday they played each other and scored only 9 runs total in both games

.

I put down $400.



whoa

I'm going to have to ghost if it doesn't score _____________(~:\________________-but on 2nd thought - Axel's got a phat wallet - everybody knows that - so $400 is not much to him for sure______________________________________________________________(~:\

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Please don't feed the trolls
AxelWolf
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May 10th, 2023 at 5:45:13 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

.

Rays/Orioles over 9.5 - even money - DraftKings right now - looks like a great bet to me

2 weak pitchers and the 2 teams average 11.5 runs per game when you add them together

I guess they set this total considering that on Monday and Tuesday they played each other and scored only 9 runs total in both games

.

I put down $400.



whoa

I'm going to have to ghost if it doesn't score _____________(~:\________________-but on 2nd thought - Axel's got a phat wallet - everybody knows that - so $400 is not much to him for sure______________________________________________________________(~:\

.
link to original post

I would've bet more but I only need $400 in action to finish up some WR at one place to cash out. But I'm golden since you indicated this was a LOCK!!

Phat wallet, not sure about that. Perhaps a phat crypto wallet all loaded up with....
CumRocket
NEO
Bitcoin Gold
IOTA
Cardano
Flow
DOGE
Algorand
Solana
😂
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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