Sports betting chatter
Believe me they mean, in the first instance, -300 and do not, say, place the bet at -350 unless you want less rewardQuote: TinMan
*Maximum Reward Credit and Tier Credit earning rate is for straight bets with -300 odds (or longer) and parlay bets with +200 odds (or longer).Wagers with shorter odds will have lower earning rates.”
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I've been remarking on this quite a while. It's as if they care more about variance than house edge. And care more than the player does.
And this remarkable attitude often works against them. If anything, underdogs are likely to be better odds for the player, as Wizard often says. And in freebet circumstances? Still this thinking applies
I just can't get over it
it's really quite amazing to me - this brave new world of sports betting
it looks like it doesn't even matter much anymore if you're a good handicapper
that seems to be secondary by a lot
the big thing is knowing how to milk these promos and bonuses
some guys are expert at that - so who needs handicapping
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Quote: lilredrooster.
it's really quite amazing to me - this brave new world of sports betting
it looks like it doesn't even matter much anymore if you're a good handicapper
that seems to be secondary by a lot
the big thing is knowing how to milk these promos and bonuses
some guys are expert at that - so who needs handicapping
.
link to original post
Well…. sort of! If I was good at handicapping I’d be up some multiple of what I actually am up! If I am included in ‘you guys’ I really don’t consider myself an expert. I leave boatloads of EV on the table. The bonuses are getting harder and harder to use. The easiest example is what Caesar’s has just done essentially preventing a guppy like me from maintaining Diamond status. And I’ll probably get a few hundred $$ less in free money from them as well.
If you are actually a good enough handicapper to pick winners 54% of the time on ‘even’ bets you will always be able to make money. I may fool myself occasionally into thinking I can do that, but I KNOW I can’t handicap better than a coin flip!
for those who want to make action bets to milk bonuses and promos - this might be useful
it's well known in horse racing that there is a favorite/longshot bias - and it also exists in other sports betting
in the long run the fave - who pays much less - will lose much less than the longshots
because getting paid big is attractive to many bettors while getting paid small is not
per betfirm.com's spread to money line conversion - linked - in last night's game the final line on DraftKings per covers.com was -8 spread and -340 money lone
if you do the math you will see that based on a team at -8 winning 78.4% of the time there was a small edge to the Nuggets on the money line at -340
this will happen fairly often in all sports - but always a conversion chart such as the one linked should be consulted
it may not be an attractive bet - but so what - if it gets you your promos and bonuses - and maybe a tiny amount of profit $$$ if you do it enough times
in racing, the longer the shot - the worse the long term r.o.i. - very likely the same in sports - the worse the payout, the larger the hypothetical edge - i.e. greater edge on -450 then -340 - but still pretty small
in racing there is a gigantic takeout that will crush maybe 98% of the players no matter what they do - not so in sports betting - substantial - but nowhere remotely close to racing
if I was doing this - I would only bet on home teams - since I believe an upset is much more likely if the dog is at home
https://www.betfirm.com/nba-point-spread-money-line-conversion-chart/
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Quote: lilredrooster.
for those who want to make action bets to milk bonuses and promos - this might be useful
it's well known in horse racing that there is a favorite/longshot bias - and it also exists in other sports betting
in the long run the fave - who pays much less - will lose much less than the longshots
because getting paid big is attractive to many bettors while getting paid small is not
per betfirm.com's spread to money line conversion - linked - in last night's game the final line on DraftKings per covers.com was -8 spread and -340 money lone
if you do the math you will see that based on a team at -8 winning 78.4% of the time there was a small edge to the Nuggets on the money line at -340
this will happen fairly often in all sports - but always a conversion chart such as the one linked should be consulted
it may not be an attractive bet - but so what - if it gets you your promos and bonuses - and maybe a tiny amount of profit $$$ if you do it enough times
in racing, the longer the shot - the worse the long term r.o.i. - very likely the same in sports - the worse the payout, the larger the hypothetical edge - i.e. greater edge on -450 then -340 - but still pretty small
in racing there is a gigantic takeout that will crush maybe 98% of the players no matter what they do - not so in sports betting - substantial - but nowhere remotely close to racing
if I was doing this - I would only bet on home teams - since I believe an upset is much more likely if the dog is at home
https://www.betfirm.com/nba-point-spread-money-line-conversion-chart/
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link to original post
I do not think you would get to +EV using your plan, but might get to a lower -EV. If the Nuggets were -340 the Heat were probably +270 or so. With a ‘fair’ line somewhere around 300.
The auto win at plus two in MLB is great. I won yesterday in the 10th inning when road team scored 2! Right after they scored two there was a long rain delay, but I was paid immediately. Butttt….. it was $25 the first few times they offered it but now cut back to $10. Probably worth a toonie to me…!
Won on the game and under last night, but lost on most props. The Nuggets couldn’t hit a foul shot let alone an open 3 pointer. But Jokic is so dominant they still had enough to win.
Quote: SOOPOO
I do not think you would get to +EV using your plan,
if betfirm.com is correct that a team at -8 will in the long run win 78.4% of the time then there has to be an edge if the money line is at -340
the Wizard comes up with 77.8% - slightly less - in his betting the NBA blog - see link
still an edge if you go with the Wizard's figures but less of one
if both betfirm.com and the Wizard are mistaken then there may not be an edge - but that seems unlikely - in both instances the edge is very small
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nba/
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it many not prove anything - but I think it has some significance
during the last regular season the Bucks were 32-9 at home winning at a 78% clip
by midseason it was obvious they were crushing at home
I looked at the last half of the season just the home games - 20 of them
ATS they were 9-11 - the bettor had an r.o.i. of negative 14%
on the money line they often, but not always, were extreme faves
but betting them at home on the money line for the last 20 games - they were 16-4 - the bettor had an r.o.i. of 8%
when I have some more energy I will look at another NBA team that crushed at home and see how they did ATS and on the money line at home for the last half of the season
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Quote: lilredrooster.
it many not prove anything - but I think it has some significance
during the last regular season the Bucks were 32-9 at home winning at a 78% clip
by midseason it was obvious they were crushing at home
I looked at the last half of the season just the home games - 20 of them
ATS they were 9-11 - the bettor had an r.o.i. of negative 14%
on the money line they often, but not always, were extreme faves
but betting them at home on the money line for the last 20 games - they were 16-4 - the bettor had an r.o.i. of 8%
when I have some more energy I will look at another NBA team that crushed at home and see how they did ATS and on the money line at home for the last half of the season
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The problem with retrospective stuff like that has been mentioned here many times before. At the trading deadline some teams were trying to get better (Lakers) while some teams were trying to get worse (Pistons). The Lakers record pre trades was irrelevant to their team post trades. Same for a bunch of teams, both ways depending on the team.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
it many not prove anything - but I think it has some significance
during the last regular season the Bucks were 32-9 at home winning at a 78% clip
by midseason it was obvious they were crushing at home
I looked at the last half of the season just the home games - 20 of them
ATS they were 9-11 - the bettor had an r.o.i. of negative 14%
on the money line they often, but not always, were extreme faves
but betting them at home on the money line for the last 20 games - they were 16-4 - the bettor had an r.o.i. of 8%
when I have some more energy I will look at another NBA team that crushed at home and see how they did ATS and on the money line at home for the last half of the season
l[ink=/forum/gambling/sports/37555-sports-betting-chatter/16/#post890639]link to original post
The problem with retrospective stuff like that has been mentioned here many times before. At the trading deadline some teams were trying to get better (Lakers) while some teams were trying to get worse (Pistons). The Lakers record pre trades was irrelevant to their team post trades. Same for a bunch of teams, both ways depending on the team.
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the point you made has nothing at all to do with my point
my point was about how extreme faves on the money line performed in terms of r.o.i.
even though they lost ATS
I didn't know before I did this that they would be profitable - they very well could have been unprofitable
there was no reason to believe the Bucks would perform better or worse in the 2nd half then they did in the first half of the season
if they started to perform poorly in the 2nd half of the season then they wouldn't have continued to be extreme faves and the data would be worthless
in fact they performed almost exactly the same
time to let it go - my point is not getting across with you - and yours is definitely not getting across to me
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As a side note, many offshore books don't allow anything over -200 or +150/160 when using bonuses or rolling over.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
for those who want to make action bets to milk bonuses and promos - this might be useful
it's well known in horse racing that there is a favorite/longshot bias - and it also exists in other sports betting
in the long run the fave - who pays much less - will lose much less than the longshots
because getting paid big is attractive to many bettors while getting paid small is not
per betfirm.com's spread to money line conversion - linked - in last night's game the final line on DraftKings per covers.com was -8 spread and -340 money lone
if you do the math you will see that based on a team at -8 winning 78.4% of the time there was a small edge to the Nuggets on the money line at -340
this will happen fairly often in all sports - but always a conversion chart such as the one linked should be consulted
it may not be an attractive bet - but so what - if it gets you your promos and bonuses - and maybe a tiny amount of profit $$$ if you do it enough times
in racing, the longer the shot - the worse the long term r.o.i. - very likely the same in sports - the worse the payout, the larger the hypothetical edge - i.e. greater edge on -450 then -340 - but still pretty small
in racing there is a gigantic takeout that will crush maybe 98% of the players no matter what they do - not so in sports betting - substantial - but nowhere remotely close to racing
if I was doing this - I would only bet on home teams - since I believe an upset is much more likely if the dog is at home
https://www.betfirm.com/nba-point-spread-money-line-conversion-chart/
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link to original post
I do not think you would get to +EV using your plan, but might get to a lower -EV. If the Nuggets were -340 the Heat were probably +270 or so. With a ‘fair’ line somewhere around 300.
The auto win at plus two in MLB is great. I won yesterday in the 10th inning when road team scored 2! Right after they scored two there was a long rain delay, but I was paid immediately. Butttt….. it was $25 the first few times they offered it but now cut back to $10. Probably worth a toonie to me…!
Won on the game and under last night, but lost on most props. The Nuggets couldn’t hit a foul shot let alone an open 3 pointer. But Jokic is so dominant they still had enough to win.
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The gravy train has been reduced to a few ladles.
Quote: SOOPOOMy offers keep shrinking in dollar value. The friend I’m helping on FD has a $100 limit on today’s +EV profit boost. My limit is $10! I no longer get any ‘missions’ on DK. The Caesar’s drastic cut on Rewards Credits.
The gravy train has been reduced to a few ladles.
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Do you think increasing your bet amounts will raise your bonus amounts? If so, you just need to find the sweet spot to maximize bonusses and minimize bets to generate the highest EV.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOMy offers keep shrinking in dollar value. The friend I’m helping on FD has a $100 limit on today’s +EV profit boost. My limit is $10! I no longer get any ‘missions’ on DK. The Caesar’s drastic cut on Rewards Credits.
The gravy train has been reduced to a few ladles.
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Do you think increasing your bet amounts will raise your bonus amounts? If so, you just need to find the sweet spot to maximize bonusses and minimize bets to generate the highest EV.
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I can’t know for sure, but I’d guess it’s the constant winning that is causing the restrictions. I don’t calculate the details of my betting patterns, but I think I’m betting around the same amounts as I have from the beginning after the initial required bonus run throughs. I would have no way to really know how much in -EV betting I’d have to do to get opportunities worth the -EV. I’ll keep plugging away though.
one for today on the run lin in the mlb
Reds - 125 -1.5 over Rockies - at 12:35____________glta - in the last 20 minutes the run line moved to -130
about double the potential profit on the run line than on the money line
my admittedly unproven belief is that the run line can often have more value than the money line
I tracked 100 games - when the home team was the fave - my personal preference - and in the games won by the fave the run line bet won 78 times and lost 22 times
if the fave was even money on the run line and -200 on the money line - betting $100 - and it followed the above % - he would have won $7,800 and lost $2,200 for a net gain of $5,600 on the run line - not counting the times when both the run line and the money line lost
but the winning bets on the money line would have netted only $5,000 - not counting the times when both the run line and the money line lost
these calculations are not being represented as exact
and of course, no one is going to win betting blindly on the run line - careful selection is required
But Cincy is on long winning streak, and Colorado sucks.
Go Reds!
I’ve been using some of my free bets on 3 team parlays with 3rd leg being Bills -1.5 against Jets, or Eagles money line week 1. Have a few that won so waiting for September!
on the money line - Yanks -120 over Mariners -
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Quote: lilredrooster.
on the money line - Yanks -120 over Mariners -
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Since my rent is paid for after your pick from yesterday, I’m putting the food money on the line on the Yanks. And I got -105! Maybe it’s timing, but I’m getting much better lines than you are!
I have boosted 3 leg parlay that hit first two that needs Rays -1.5 to cash.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
on the money line - Yanks -120 over Mariners -
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Since my rent is paid for after your pick from yesterday, I’m putting the food money on the line on the Yanks. And I got -105! Maybe it’s timing, but I’m getting much better lines than you are!
I have boosted 3 leg parlay that hit first two that needs Rays -1.5 to cash.
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Ouch this one doesn’t look so good in the 5th.
last night tanked - I'm 1-1 (.20)
6/23 Rays - run line - -1.5 - -125 over Royals - glta
the potential profit on the run line is more than twice that of the money line - famous last words__________???
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Quote: lilredrooster.
last night tanked - I'm 1-1 (.20)
6/23 Rays - run line - -1.5 - -125 over Royals - glta
the potential profit on the run line is more than twice that of the money line - famous last words__________???
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Last night was good example why home team -1.5 is a tough bet. It was even after 8. The only way you can win is with a men on base home run.
Stupid me for betting on the Yanks. Their starting pitcher has forgotten how to pitch. Previous game was only an inning or two with boatloads of runs. Repeated last night. Yanks without Judge are a bottom half team. Pitching staff has one good pitcher now…. Cole. They are playing players who just look washed up…. Donaldson is terrible. Stanton can barely make contact. I think I’ll be betting against them in all non Cole games until they get Judge back. Starting today!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
last night tanked - I'm 1-1 (.20)
6/23 Rays - run line - -1.5 - -125 over Royals - glta
the potential profit on the run line is more than twice that of the money line - famous last words__________???
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Last night was good example why home team -1.5 is a tough bet. It was even after 8. The only way you can win is with a men on base home run.
Stupid me for betting on the Yanks. Their starting pitcher has forgotten how to pitch. Previous game was only an inning or two with boatloads of runs. Repeated last night. Yanks without Judge are a bottom half team. Pitching staff has one good pitcher now…. Cole. They are playing players who just look washed up…. Donaldson is terrible. Stanton can barely make contact. I think I’ll be betting against them in all non Cole games until they get Judge back. Starting today!
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I've been hoping for such for three weeks now.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
last night tanked - I'm 1-1 (.20)
6/23 Rays - run line - -1.5 - -125 over Royals - glta
the potential profit on the run line is more than twice that of the money line - famous last words__________???
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link to original post
Last night was good example why home team -1.5 is a tough bet. It was even after 8. The only way you can win is with a men on base home run.
Stupid me for betting on the Yanks. Their starting pitcher has forgotten how to pitch. Previous game was only an inning or two with boatloads of runs. Repeated last night. Yanks without Judge are a bottom half team. Pitching staff has one good pitcher now…. Cole. They are playing players who just look washed up…. Donaldson is terrible. Stanton can barely make contact. I think I’ll be betting against them in all non Cole games until they get Judge back. Starting today!
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What was even after 8? yanks were down 10-0 after 8.
I didn't know Yanks didn't have Judge -
never would have made that pick - no excuse - just saying
I'm not paying enough attention before making my pick
from now on before picking I'm going to look at the details more closely
I will still pick the run line on the home team fave if they have a much better team and a much better pitcher
right now - the Rays are -265 on the money line - just not enough profit to wanna make that bet
and also, look what happens when the away team is the fave on the run line
today, the Angels are -150 on the money line and just -105 on the run line
you don't even come close to doubling your profit - only 45% more profit
but the Guardians at home are -140 on the money line and +145 on the run line - the potential profit is more than doubled
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
last night tanked - I'm 1-1 (.20)
6/23 Rays - run line - -1.5 - -125 over Royals - glta
the potential profit on the run line is more than twice that of the money line - famous last words__________???
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link to original post
Last night was good example why home team -1.5 is a tough bet. It was even after 8. The only way you can win is with a men on base home run.
Stupid me for betting on the Yanks. Their starting pitcher has forgotten how to pitch. Previous game was only an inning or two with boatloads of runs. Repeated last night. Yanks without Judge are a bottom half team. Pitching staff has one good pitcher now…. Cole. They are playing players who just look washed up…. Donaldson is terrible. Stanton can barely make contact. I think I’ll be betting against them in all non Cole games until they get Judge back. Starting today!
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What was even after 8? yanks were down 10-0 after 8.
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Rays game. That was the run line bet we were talking about. The Yankees game was a money line bet.
Quote: lilredrooster.
I didn't know Yanks didn't have Judge -
never would have made that pick - no excuse - just saying
I'm not paying enough attention before making my pick
from now on before picking I'm going to look at the details more closely
I will still pick the run line on the home team fave if they have a much better team and a much better pitcher
right now - the Rays are -265 on the money line - just not enough profit to wanna make that bet
and also, look what happens when the away team is the fave on the run line
today, the Angels are -150 on the money line and just -105 on the run line
you don't even come close to doubling your profit - only 45% more profit
but the Guardians at home are -140 on the money line and +145 on the run line - the potential profit is more than doubled
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Please take this as help and not scorn. Are you aware the over under in the Angels game is 8? And the Guardians game is 11.5? Handy many more one run games will happen on an over/under game of 8 than on an over/under game of 11.5?
A LOT! So laying 1.5 in a low expected total game you SHOULD get better odds. Don’t try and make it seem like the books are making some kind of mistake.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
I didn't know Yanks didn't have Judge -
never would have made that pick - no excuse - just saying
I'm not paying enough attention before making my pick
from now on before picking I'm going to look at the details more closely
I will still pick the run line on the home team fave if they have a much better team and a much better pitcher
right now - the Rays are -265 on the money line - just not enough profit to wanna make that bet
and also, look what happens when the away team is the fave on the run line
today, the Angels are -150 on the money line and just -105 on the run line
you don't even come close to doubling your profit - only 45% more profit
but the Guardians at home are -140 on the money line and +145 on the run line - the potential profit is more than doubled
link to original post
Please take this as help and not scorn. Are you aware the over under in the Angels game is 8? And the Guardians game is 11.5? Handy many more one run games will happen on an over/under game of 8 than on an over/under game of 11.5?
A LOT! So laying 1.5 in a low expected total game you SHOULD get better odds. Don’t try and make it seem like the books are making some kind of mistake.
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you have it backwards - the o/u on the Angels game is 11.5 and the o/u on the Guardians game is 8
not taking it as scorn - but I in no way implied that the books were making a mistake - they're not giving away money - great selectivity is necessary to beat the odds
your point about the total having a great effect on the difference between the money line and the run line is NOT CORRECT
what is causing the big difference in the payouts is whether the fave is home or away - not the total
take a look at the low total game linked from covers.com - 06/22 - click on line movement - Athletics vs. Guardians - Guardians - the total is 8 - -170 money line - +120 run line - low total but the potential profit on the money line was about the same difference as on the high total game in % terms on the home fave - just about the same % as when the total was 11.5
then take a look at the Diamondbacks vs. Nationals game - not a low total - pretty common total - 9 - road fave - same deal - -145 money line and +100 run line - only a small increase in potential profit
one more for good measure - Rockies favored at home May 17 - linked - very high total - 11.5 - -130 money line and + 150 run line - just about the same % increase on the run line bet as in the low total game -
https://www.covers.com/sports/MLB/matchups?selectedDate=2023-5-17
https://www.covers.com/sports/mlb/matchups?selectedDate=2023-06-22
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That being said, I’m sure the oddsmakers are quite aware of that fact, and bake it onto the odds offered.
6/24 team total - Rays over 5.5 - 105 -
6/25 - gonna try and get ahead by plunging with one of these weird bets the online books now offer - they up the juice but not all that much and it's easier to find a good bet imho
found the bet on DraftKings - if they don't accept it from anybody - too large - prolly the other predatory online books have the same bet - maybe slightly better or worse odds
Marcus Stroman on the mound - excellent for the Cubs - early game - 10 a.m.
Cardinals Lars Nootbaar - no home run - -900_______ 10 times -
in his last 5 games he's had 3 hits in 17 at bats - only one extra base hit and no hits in the last 3 games
3-2 + .7__________________risked 10 units yesterday
going to try and see how long I can go without a loss on this BS no home run prop by the predatory books - picking weak hitters vs. strong pitchers
6/26 - Twins Alex Kirilloff - no home run - - 1200__________risking 5 units
Kirilloff - only hits were 2 singles in last 12 at bats - no extra base hits in last 5 games
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Quote: lilredrooster.
3-2 + .7__________________risked 10 units yesterday
going to try and see how long I can go without a loss on this BS no home run prop by the predatory books - picking weak hitters vs. strong pitchers
6/26 - Twins Alex Kirilloff - no home run - - 1200__________risking 5 units
Kirilloff - only hits were 2 singles in last 12 at bats - no extra base hits in last 5 games
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link to original post
I went with you trying to win $1. I got slightly better odds at -1115. Strider has been my favorite pitcher but he has been taken yard a few times recently.
I don’t think last 12 at bats comes close to meaning anything.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
3-2 + .7__________________risked 10 units yesterday
going to try and see how long I can go without a loss on this BS no home run prop by the predatory books - picking weak hitters vs. strong pitchers
6/26 - Twins Alex Kirilloff - no home run - - 1200__________risking 5 units
Kirilloff - only hits were 2 singles in last 12 at bats - no extra base hits in last 5 games
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link to original post
I went with you trying to win $1. I got slightly better odds at -1115. Strider has been my favorite pitcher but he has been taken yard a few times recently.
I don’t think last 12 at bats comes close to meaning anything.
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also useful imo that he only had 12 plate appearances in the last 5 games - he got no walks - no sacrifices this year
looks like they pulled him for a pinch hitter or used him as a pinch hitter -
he is scheduled to start tonight
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4-2 + 1.2
6/27 - despite the high scoring at Coors Field the Rockies are still way down on the list of homers per game even at home
tonight they go up against excellence - the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw
I'll take Jorge Alfaro - no home run -- 800__________risk 5 units
how horrible the other side of that bet paying only 4.5/1 for a guy that in the last 3.5 years has hit only 15 homers in 213 games - famous last words_______????
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no action yesterday - Alfaro didn't play - I do this in the early a.m. when I have energy - should wait for the lineups but don't want to - so I'll waste some time sometimes - have plenty of that
6/28 - okay - the kinna bet nobody wants - but I'll take it - Jake Marisnick of the Tigers - the guy has ZERO homers in the last 66 games
no homer - - 1600 - risk 8 units
going up against Dane Dunning who is having a great year for the Rangers who gives up only 0.5 homers per 9 innings - the league average is about 1.25
the poor guy doesn't have a prayer of hitting a homer
icing on the cake - the guy has only 8 at bats in the last 5 games - looks like they pulled him for a pinch hitter
looks pretty obvious to me - the shorter the payout - the better chance you have of finding a good bet - longshot lovers love the big payouts but terrible EV on the other side
DraftKings is offering Zack McKinstry at +1100 to hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
they don't offer the other side - that he won't hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
a fair price would be about +2400
how pathetic do you have to be to take a bet like that_____?
they're really some sharks - there's blood in the water
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Quote: lilredrooster.
no action yesterday - Alfaro didn't play - I do this in the early a.m. when I have energy - should wait for the lineups but don't want to - so I'll waste some time sometimes - have plenty of that
6/28 - okay - the kinna bet nobody wants - but I'll take it - Jake Marisnick of the Tigers - the guy has ZERO homers in the last 66 games
no homer - - 1600 - risk 8 units
going up against Dane Dunning who is having a great year for the Rangers who gives up only 0.5 homers per 9 innings - the league average is about 1.25
the poor guy doesn't have a prayer of hitting a homer
icing on the cake - the guy has only 8 at bats in the last 5 games - looks like they pulled him for a pinch hitter
looks pretty obvious to me - the shorter the payout - the better chance you have of finding a good bet - longshot lovers love the big payouts but terrible EV on the other side
DraftKings is offering Zack McKinstry at +1100 to hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
they don't offer the other side - that he won't hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
a fair price would be about +2400
how pathetic do you have to be to take a bet like that_____?
they're really some sharks - there's blood in the water
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link to original post
Following your bets I got ‘no homer’ for Marisnick but ‘only’ had to lay -1430 on BetRivers. It seems like I am always getting significantly better odds than you do.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
no action yesterday - Alfaro didn't play - I do this in the early a.m. when I have energy - should wait for the lineups but don't want to - so I'll waste some time sometimes - have plenty of that
6/28 - okay - the kinna bet nobody wants - but I'll take it - Jake Marisnick of the Tigers - the guy has ZERO homers in the last 66 games
no homer - - 1600 - risk 8 units
going up against Dane Dunning who is having a great year for the Rangers who gives up only 0.5 homers per 9 innings - the league average is about 1.25
the poor guy doesn't have a prayer of hitting a homer
icing on the cake - the guy has only 8 at bats in the last 5 games - looks like they pulled him for a pinch hitter
looks pretty obvious to me - the shorter the payout - the better chance you have of finding a good bet - longshot lovers love the big payouts but terrible EV on the other side
DraftKings is offering Zack McKinstry at +1100 to hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
they don't offer the other side - that he won't hit a double in his first plate appearance tonight
a fair price would be about +2400
how pathetic do you have to be to take a bet like that_____?
they're really some sharks - there's blood in the water
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Following your bets I got ‘no homer’ for Marisnick but ‘only’ had to lay -1430 on BetRivers. It seems like I am always getting significantly better odds than you do.
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I'm not looking for the best odds - just for an edge - I only look at DraftKings - and it takes a lot of time to find a good hypothetical edge
but you're 100% right in looking for the best odds
by the time I've found my pick - I'm done - don't wanna mess with it anymore
I'm not actually betting - I'm just picking
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5-2___+1.7
I'm going to take a break on picking for a while
the modus operandi of these predatory online books re prop bets:
they totally screw the longshot bettors knowing that while dreaming of a big payday they are blind to how bad the bet really is
on the other side they don't get pounded because bettors don't like very small payouts
I have to grudgingly admit that it's a very sharp strategy - maybe even brilliant
I would not have guessed that the longshot lovers would be willing to make bets that are that bad - they obviously are
re the props:
anybody can find a hypothetical edge by looking at these props priced at -600 or higher and crunching the numbers at baseballreference.com - using all the relevant detail available
I looked at mainly the no home run prop pitting weak batters against very strong pitchers
it took quite a bit of time - maybe one out of 5 that I looked at showed a potential edge high enough to be interesting
and of course, the very small payouts are a turn off to many - but hey, an edge is an edge
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Quote: lilredrooster.
5-2___+1.7
I'm going to take a break on picking for a while
the modus operandi of these predatory online books re prop bets:
they totally screw the longshot bettors knowing that while dreaming of a big payday they are blind to how bad the bet really is
on the other side they don't get pounded because bettors don't like very small payouts
I have to grudgingly admit that it's a very sharp strategy - maybe even brilliant
I would not have guessed that the longshot lovers would be willing to make bets that are that bad - they obviously are
re the props:
anybody can find a hypothetical edge by looking at these props priced at -600 or higher and crunching the numbers at baseballreference.com - using all the relevant detail available
I looked at mainly the no home run prop pitting weak batters against very strong pitchers
it took quite a bit of time - maybe one out of 5 that I looked at showed a potential edge high enough to be interesting
and of course, the very small payouts are a turn off to many - but hey, an edge is an edge
.
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I’ve been betting with you, buttttttt……. I don’t actually believe we’ve actually had an edge. You use the phrase ‘no chance to hit a homer’. It’s really a ‘very low’ chance. If I’m laying 13-1 there’s probably a 10% chance the guy hits one.
If you really feel that you have found a true inefficiency why don’t you exploit it for real money? It doesn’t seem like it’s a boatload of effort, is it?
Quote: SOOPOO
I’ve been betting with you, buttttttt……. I don’t actually believe we’ve actually had an edge. You use the phrase ‘no chance to hit a homer’. It’s really a ‘very low’ chance. If I’m laying 13-1 there’s probably a 10% chance the guy hits one.
If you really feel that you have found a true inefficiency why don’t you exploit it for real money? It doesn’t seem like it’s a boatload of effort, is it?
I've already explained in my "Quitting Gambling" thread why I don't gamble anymore
why would you even make a bet like that if you thought there was no edge___? - negative EV - not much fun to get such a small payout on a bet - and minus EV makes it a terrible bet
you say he has a 10% chance of hitting a homer -
the dude has hit ZERO homers in his last 70 games and 2 homers in his last 135 games
seriously - I don't know how you came up with 10% - it's a completely ridiculous speculation - absolutely nonsensical
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOO
I’ve been betting with you, buttttttt……. I don’t actually believe we’ve actually had an edge. You use the phrase ‘no chance to hit a homer’. It’s really a ‘very low’ chance. If I’m laying 13-1 there’s probably a 10% chance the guy hits one.
If you really feel that you have found a true inefficiency why don’t you exploit it for real money? It doesn’t seem like it’s a boatload of effort, is it?
I've already explained in my "Quitting Gambling" thread why I don't gamble anymore
why would you even make a bet like that if you thought there was no edge___? - negative EV - not much fun to get such a small payout on a bet - and minus EV makes it a terrible bet
you say he has a 10% chance of hitting a homer -
the dude has hit ZERO homers in his last 70 games and 2 homers in his last 135 games
seriously - I don't know how you came up with 10% - it's a completely ridiculous speculation - absolutely nonsensical
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Just because you can’t understand something doesn’t make it nonsensical! If the books are paying me 1-13 because of their vig there is around a 10% chance of me losing the bet. It’s not my fault you can’t understand that simple concept.
You ask me why I was making those -EV bets? I (was) having fun betting along with you. The literal dime or so of EV I was giving up was worth it for me to keep interest.
No reason for us to fight over this silliness. I think I won $3 betting with you. So thanks for that!
Quote: SOOPOO
If the books are paying me 1-13 because of their vig there is around a 10% chance of me losing the bet.
You ask me why I was making those -EV bets? I (was) having fun betting along with you. The literal dime or so of EV I was giving up was worth it for me to keep interest.
again - totally ridiculous and absolutely nonsensical -
believing that if the books put up a bet then they must have an edge every single time
believing that they know exactly what the true probabilities are every single time
oh yeah, the Almighty sportsbooks are infallible - they know everything
yes, you're very different then me - I would never make a bet unless I believed I had an edge - I might be wrong sometimes but that's what I would believe before I plunged
no fun for me at all handing over money to these predatory sharks
no hard feelings - people are different - good luck to you - enjoy
but I'm glad I'll never believe ZERO for 70 equals ten percent - PTL for small favors
I would be highly embarrassed if I put out blatantly false info on a public forum as you are doing and it was called to my attention
I already proved that you were wrong about the totals having a big effect on the run line - that it was the fact that the home team may not bat in the 9th inning that caused the run line to be a much higher % on the win if it was on the home team - NOT the totals
how many more wrong ideas will you claim to be right ideas___________????
this will be my last post on the subject - and in this thread - you get the last word - enjoy
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOO
If the books are paying me 1-13 because of their vig there is around a 10% chance of me losing the bet.
You ask me why I was making those -EV bets? I (was) having fun betting along with you. The literal dime or so of EV I was giving up was worth it for me to keep interest.
again - totally ridiculous and absolutely nonsensical -
believing that if the books put up a bet then they must have an edge every single time
believing that they know exactly what the true probabilities are every single time
oh yeah, the Almighty sportsbooks are infallible - they know everything
yes, you're very different then me - I would never make a bet unless I believed I had an edge - I might be wrong sometimes but that's what I would believe before I plunged
no fun for me at all handing over money to these predatory sharks
no hard feelings - people are different - good luck to you - enjoy
but I'm glad I'll never believe ZERO for 70 equals ten percent - PTL for small favors
I would be highly embarrassed if I put out blatantly false info on a public forum as you are doing and it was called to my attention
I already proved that you were wrong about the totals having a big effect on the run line - that it was the fact that the home team may not bat in the 9th inning that caused the run line to be a much higher % on the win if it was on the home team - NOT the totals
how many more wrong ideas will you claim to be right ideas___________????
this will be my last post on the subject - and in this thread - you get the last word - enjoy
.
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Golly. Of course I don’t believe the books are infallible. I’ve mentioned dozens of times where I’ve found these weaknesses.
Ok. Maybe LRR (you) actually found a bet where the odds were in your favor. I guess my comment should be “ON AVERAGE” when the books allow me to bet at -1300 I’ll win that bet 9/10 times.
And you may think you ‘proved’ something, but you have proved nothing, other than you cannot understand some simple betting/bookie concepts.
Thanks for giving me the last word.
Quote: GonorssoI can't know for sure, but I assume that continuous wins cause limitations. I don't calculate the details of my betting patterns, but I think I bet about the same amounts as I have since the beginning after passing the initial mandatory bonuses. I wouldn't have any way of knowing.
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A lot of my +EV opportunities are now limited to $5 bets! I seem to bet getting fewer and less valuable opportunities on each of my 5 accounts.
Today best offer is FD giving Ohtani a hit at +100. $50 max. Caesars had best ‘no hit’ at +145. Easy money.
My offers are dwindling. Many good ones now have max bets of $5. The points I get are also way down. I’ll keep doing it but will greatly lower my expectations.
I also found another pretty good +EV offer. Got Arraez to get a single his first at bat at +600! Other sites had it at around +300. After I made the bet the same site dropped it to +400. Probably +400 is fair odds.
Quote: SOOPOOBig offer today on FanDuel. +200 for YRFI in the all star game. If someone wanted to bet the NRFI to hedge it’s -143 at BetRivers.
My offers are dwindling. Many good ones now have max bets of $5. The points I get are also way down. I’ll keep doing it but will greatly lower my expectations.
I also found another pretty good +EV offer. Got Arraez to get a single his first at bat at +600! Other sites had it at around +300. After I made the bet the same site dropped it to +400. Probably +400 is fair odds.
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That was profitable!
Best recurring offer recently has been BetRivers giving me $25 free bet if I make a $50 bet on Live Wimbledon. EV around +$15 I’d guess. I’ve been hitting way over expectations on those. Odds vary widely on live bets. I was about to bet on Djokovic to win first set at -195. He lost one point and odds changed to -127 and I jumped on it.
The top players usually play on Centre Court. Djokovic has won 44 straight matches there.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOBig offer today on FanDuel. +200 for YRFI in the all star game. If someone wanted to bet the NRFI to hedge it’s -143 at BetRivers.
My offers are dwindling. Many good ones now have max bets of $5. The points I get are also way down. I’ll keep doing it but will greatly lower my expectations.
I also found another pretty good +EV offer. Got Arraez to get a single his first at bat at +600! Other sites had it at around +300. After I made the bet the same site dropped it to +400. Probably +400 is fair odds.
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That was profitable!
Best recurring offer recently has been BetRivers giving me $25 free bet if I make a $50 bet on Live Wimbledon. EV around +$15 I’d guess. I’ve been hitting way over expectations on those. Odds vary widely on live bets. I was about to bet on Djokovic to win first set at -195. He lost one point and odds changed to -127 and I jumped on it.
The top players usually play on Centre Court. Djokovic has won 44 straight matches there.
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Good bet today, but you should know (for future reference) Djoker has a history of starting slow. Dropping the first set then sweeping the next 3.
Today MGM has a + EV bet ( I think?) in Mets ML/ Senga over 5.5 K’s. +210. Highly correlated. Mets are slight favorite and Senga natural K line is 6.5. I think fair line is +190-200 or so. I think the Mets have scored 3 total runs in last 3 games though…
I tried to bet $60 but was limited to $59.61. Probably saved 39 cents.
