Sports betting chatter
Quote: billryan
The 1976 Nuggets may be my second favorite pro team, just behind the Knicks of the early 1970s.
David Thompson,
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my h.s. teammate got a full hoops scholarship to NC State and was on the floor with him his freshman and sophomore years
he was just a scrub - and screwed up and left college before they got their Championship
David was already a legend in h.s. way before he entered college
at NC State they called him DDT - Dazzling David Thompson
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Quote: billryan
The 1976 Nuggets may be my second favorite pro team, just behind the Knicks of the early 1970s.
David Thompson, Bobby Jones, Dan Issell, Marvin Webster, Byron Beck, Gus Gerald and a young coach named Larry Brown.
I am very skeptical. I can't believe that Larry Brown was ever young.
But I will say it seems to me the dark side doesn't understand that when they insist on taking bets that are not lay bets in their promotions, especially, uh, well, do the math dudes
Players don't like the variance they experience with the +400 bet that the rules insist on in parlays, for instance. So that means the darkside *does* like it for what seems like the same reason... a decision based on variance. I just marvel at that especially in promotions.
BetMGM has a Stastny goal/Hurricanes win at +575 as its lions boost. Just going to any other site and using the SGP there you get way more than +575. The ‘boost’ is a faux boost.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
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odds of winning times amount to win ... minus odds of losing times amount to lose ... is always the formula. Admittedly, not quite as simple due to second chance, so the below might be wrong but this is my 2 cents. Hopefully you get more inputQuote: lilredrooster.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
.
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taking your scenario as you pitched it:
flat bet: 50% chance of winning $2500
25% chance of winning the second bet making you even .... zero value. Assumes not get initial amnt bet back.
25% chance of losing both bets -2500
net of the above $625 [EV]
625/2500= 25% player advantage
betting at higher odds both bets say +200 meaning 1 in 3 chance of winning paying fair odds 2 to 1
33% win $5000
33% win 5000-2500 , net 2500
33% lose 2500
$1650/2500 = 66% player advantage .... I think this is right, needs check
if you take even higher odds, even more player advantage
the risk of losing it all goes from 25% to 33% in the above scenario .... there's the rub
Quote: lilredrooster.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
.
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The math is easy to do if there was a 50% chance of winning a bet they pay even money on. The complication is that for a bet you have a 50% chance of winning you only get paid around $2270. If you lose and make the same bet with the bonus bet and you win you end up with just $2270 from your initial $2500.
50%. +$2270
25%. -$230
25%. $-2500
Total+EV. +452.50.
As mentioned, this is NOT even close to the best way to do this from an EV standpoint. You would want to take underdogs both on the initial bet, and even more so on the bonus bet if you post the initial bet.
I think you are saying that you will not get paid fair odds, but paid after vig taken. My example above shows getting paid fair odds which is not going to happen unless the oddsmaker has failed his jobQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
.
link to original post
The math is easy to do if there was a 50% chance of winning a bet they pay even money on. The complication is that for a bet you have a 50% chance of winning you only get paid around $2270.
Quote:If you lose and make the same bet with the bonus bet and you win you end up with just $2270 from your initial $2500.
50%. +$2270
25%. -$230
25%. $-2500
Total+EV. +452.50.
As mentioned, this is NOT even close to the best way to do this from an EV standpoint. You would want to take underdogs both on the initial bet, and even more so on the bonus bet if you post the initial bet.
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452.50/2500 = 18.1% player advantage
Soopoo can you [or someone] tell me if I did the math right for a +200 bet and re-bet? That is, outside of the incorrect assumption that it would pay fair odds
Quote: odiousgambitodds of winning times amount to win ... minus odds of losing times amount to lose ... is always the formula. Admittedly, not quite as simple due to second chance, so the below might be wrong but this is my 2 cents. Hopefully you get more inputQuote: lilredrooster.
okay, so FanDuel has a $2500 no sweat first bet promo - up to $2500
so let's say you make an even money bet on the money line and let's say for example purposes you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
and if you lose that bet you make another even money bet on the money line $2500 bet with the bonus money and you have a 50% chance of winning that bet
I was trying to figure out the edge have if you do that promo - I couldn't figure it out - I started getting dizzy trying to think about it
can someone help me out - tell me what the edge to the player is and how to figure it - thanks
.
link to original post
taking your scenario as you pitched it:
flat bet: 50% chance of winning $2500
25% chance of winning the second bet making you even .... zero value. Assumes not get initial amnt bet back.
25% chance of losing both bets -2500
net of the above $625 [EV]
625/2500= 25% player advantage
betting at higher odds both bets say +200 meaning 1 in 3 chance of winning paying fair odds 2 to 1
33% win $5000
33% win 5000-2500 , net 2500
33% lose 2500
$1650/2500 = 66% player advantage .... I think this is right, needs check
if you take even higher odds, even more player advantage
the risk of losing it all goes from 25% to 33% in the above scenario .... there's the rub
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Your second example I believe is incorrect.
Should be 1/3 win $5k
4/9 lose $2.5k
2/9 win $2.5k.
EV is +1,111 (rounded).
Remember , you ‘lose it all’ 2/3 x 2/3 which is 4/9, not 1/3.
the benefit of avoiding even money bets is clear even when doing it wrong! Even worse, they might encourage you to play it even safer, ouch!
yet while in the middle of selecting bets I do keep thinking about that I'm increasing the chances of losing as I get better EV. Even now when I'm getting that type offer repeated, which is exactly what you want!
