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gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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March 27th, 2023 at 5:25:06 AM permalink
Full post from Riddles
Quote:

Well, we finally have reached the double digits in the X category. Tough loss with 27 to 7 fouls going against texas in the second half to blow a 13 point lead with 8 minutes - but shit happens. Gotta give some respect to Miami for the better coaching, a large point of my POTD yesterday was that miami would struggle from 3, but they flipped their script and barely shot any threes, running the paint against a team that is used to Disu handling this defense. I think texas wins this with Desu with ease, but the way she blows sometimes. Anyways - we move on from the pain that is March madness and back to hockey.

POTD Record: 32-10-1
Last 25:✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌

Yesterday's POTD: Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas Longhorns -4 (up to -5) | 3U❌

Today's POTD: Montreal Canadians vs. Buffalo Sabres O7 | 3U

Time: March 27, 7:00PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +57.36 in 40 days | ≈69.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠Montreal has averaged 3.8 goals for and 4.3 goals against in their last 10 games, compared to Buffalo who have averaged 2.7 goals and let in 4.5. That being said, their scoring struggles the last 10 games have been against many tougher defense teams, including Boston, Rangers, and Toronto.
2. ⁠Last time these 2 teams played, the score was 7-2, and with the way buffalo is playing, and the habs coming off an 8 goal performance, I could see an even higher scoring game.
3. ⁠In the other game they played this season, even though buffalo lost 2-3, they had 45 shots on net, and the habs 34. I don't expect as hot goaltending, especially from Allen (.891, 3.57 GAA) and Luukkoenen (.890, 3.63 GAA) who I expect to be playing.
4. ⁠Per Moneypuck, the habs ranked #7 in goals against this season with 174, and buffalo ranks #4, with 190 goals againist
5. ⁠On the other side, buffalo ranked #5 for goals for with 169, and habs #21, though they have been scoring much more as of recently with Harvey pinard playing out of his mind
6. ⁠Buffalo has the 6th best PP% at 24.27, and Montreal ranked #2 in the league for Penalty minutes with 864. All be it there is no Xhejac atm, but I still expect them to take a lot of penalties this game. Habs have had 8 and 14 penalty minutes in their last 2 games, and althouh the sabres are 2nd last for penalty minutes, theyve been taking a few more penalties lately with 13, 11, 6, 4 minutes in their last 4 games
7. ⁠Sabres are only 6 points out of the wild card spot behind the penguins, and on a 2 win streak. Sabres will look to continue to play all out, not resting any starters like many teams, to try and lock in a chance this year.
8. ⁠The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 goals or more in the last game they played, Over is 4-1 in canadians last 5 games playing on 1 days rest, overr is 5-1-1 in sabres last 7 and over is 10-2 in sabres last 12 against teams with winning% below .400
9. ⁠Overall, this game should be a bloodbath, and should comfortably go over 7 withholding and crazy goaltending.

Reminder: As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee | Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex



And from DrMoneyline who I am also tailing, he had Miami yesterday, but I went with Texas.

Quote:

All-Time POTD: 139-87-2, +61.3u, 13.5% ROI

Last pick: Miami Hurricanes +4 ✅

Today’s pick: Wild ML (-130) vs Kraken 3u

NHL 🏒 8pm Est

The Wild take on the Kraken Monday night in Minnesota. The Kraken are wrapping up a 4 game road trip and those who have followed me for a while now know I love to bet against teams in this scenario. Road trips are mentally and physically exhausting, and the final game before a team returns home is typically a tough spot for teams (in my experience). The Wild are first in the Central division but only hold a 1 point lead over the Avs and Stars , so these games down the stretch are particularly important for playoff seeding, especially the home games. I like the Wild to get it done in front of a home crowd tomorrow.

For all plays, follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 27th, 2023 at 3:13:49 PM permalink
You win some you lose some. I do a lot of my ‘offer’ bets in the morning. BetMGM Lion’s Boost was 76ers to win by 1-10 over Nuggets at +325. Seemed easily +EV to me. Hedged a little on Nuggets -190 moneyline. But……. Now Embiid is not playing….. and you can get same bet at +425……. I guess my hedges are now +EV…..

I am proud to admit I won a dime betting $20 at -20000 on Netherlands to beat Gibraltar. I googled the Gibraltar team…. their players have jobs like butcher, fireman, etc…. while the Dutch team has jobs like professional soccer player, professional soccer player, professional soccer player, etc….

I think Netherlands was favored by 6. Ended up 3-0.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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March 28th, 2023 at 2:04:07 AM permalink
HSRiddles on Reddit
Quote:

Well, 5 goals at the half way mark, but unfortunately the POTD gets a push. That being said, looks like a good chunk of you got 6.5 on your books, so hopefully a few of you got the cash, but I got greedy with the juice and took the push. Now, both NCAAB games tomorrow I don't want to touch, on a coin flip with both, but leans are on my spreadsheet. Let's switch it up with the NBA tomorrow.

POTD Record: 32-10-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋

Yesterday's POTD: Montreal Canadians vs. Buffalo Sabres O7 | 3U ✋

Today's POTD: Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors -2.5 | 3U | NBA

Time: March 28, 7:30PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +57.36 in 40 days | ≈69.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠The heat are 14-20-1 ATS as the away team, whilst the Raptors are 23-15-1 as the home team ATS, with a 8-1-1 records ATS in their last 10 home games, all whilst the heat are 1-5 ATS against the raptors.
2. ⁠Lowry is still injured, so its likely he won't be playing or will be playing limited minutes. Players returning to Toronto typically play much better, so him not playing is a big bonus in terms of team momentum that Lowry can bring
3. ⁠the Heat recently got destroyed in the second half against the nets in their last game with a 64-31 outing, and coming into 2 days of rest from a bad end of game performance is hard on the mental.
4. ⁠The Raptors are fighting for a seeding spot, sitting about about a 50% chance of making the playoffs (compared to the heat who are 86%). Raptors will push hard to win this game at home to try to secure their chance in making it out of the east.
5. ⁠Raptors were in a bit of a slump after the all-star break with Siakam and Vanvleet struggling, but they've come off 2 solid games, and look to have found their footing.
6. ⁠Although the Heat are 2nd in defense typically only giving up 110 points per game, them giving up 129 to an arguably weaker nets team means they're not in their defensive form against pressure, which raptors will absolutely bring.
7. ⁠OG Anunoby is coming off an amazing game with 29 points and 8 rebounds, the entire team played well together, and were able to secure the win.
8. ⁠The Heat have scored less than 108 points this season on the road.
9. ⁠The heat are ranked 28th in rebounds, compared to the raptors who are ranked 16th, raptors should have the advantage on both ends of the glass, getting additional opportunities.
10. ⁠Although the Heat are playing hard to remain out of the play-in, the motivation at home will be more than enough for the raptors to play harder. Although the Raptors aren't necessarily a fast paced team, they will be playing much more transition, and the Heat seem to fall apart in intense games. Per Adebayo " When guys get fatigued, we stop talking. It hurts us because we expect guys to be in certain places and we're not. I just feel like we have mental lapses when we get fatigued.". Let's lean with the Raptors to take this game at home.

Reminder: As much as this streak has been great, I am not a time traveler. When I've gotten on hotstreaks before, I saw a few people betting way above the unit size and betting their entire bankrolls. March madness has historically been hard to predict, so please bet responsibly <3

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee | Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex


I got the Sabres game at O6.5 yesterday so I won instead of pushing
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 28th, 2023 at 2:47:28 AM permalink
.

I checked - only one book shows -2.5 now - MGM - all of the others say 3 - except one says 3.5 per vegasinsider.com
I'm guessing he forgot to say "up to" - he obviously makes some mistakes - when there's a spread he seems to say it almost every time
nice move from gamerfreak getting a better deal on the over yesterday and getting a win -

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 28th, 2023 at 6:51:18 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak


I got the Sabres game at O6.5 yesterday so I won instead of pushing



Yep. Me too. BetRivers had 6.5 but laying some juice. Parlayed with Wild.

There is so much bias against Jokic in the MVP discussion amongst the talking heads on TV it is ridiculous. He dominated the 76ers last night while Embiid took a rest day. 25/17/12.
DRich
DRich
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March 28th, 2023 at 8:52:15 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


There is so much bias against Jokic in the MVP discussion amongst the talking heads on TV it is ridiculous. He dominated the 76ers last night while Embiid took a rest day. 25/17/12.



I would say they are pretty close this year but since Jokic has won it the last two years they will probably give it to Embid.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
billryan
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March 28th, 2023 at 9:32:22 AM permalink
Watched the end of what I assume was the first MNF XFL game. Houston was down by 17 with two minutes left, but because of the three point after touchdown rule, they were only two scores down. They got stopped on the goal line just before the two minute warning,scored but failed on the PAT. Now down by 11, they went for the 4th and 15 variant of the onside kick and threw a nice hook and ladder play that DC snuffed out.
As the Houston coordinator called for the hook and ladder play on live television, what is there to stop DC for having a guy listening to the broadcast and alerting the team to the upcoming play? Why doesn't the OC have codes for plays instead of making his calls in plain language.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 28th, 2023 at 9:59:58 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Watched the end of what I assume was the first MNF XFL game. Houston was down by 17 with two minutes left, but because of the three point after touchdown rule, they were only two scores down. They got stopped on the goal line just before the two minute warning,scored but failed on the PAT. Now down by 11, they went for the 4th and 15 variant of the onside kick and threw a nice hook and ladder play that DC snuffed out.
As the Houston coordinator called for the hook and ladder play on live television, what is there to stop DC for having a guy listening to the broadcast and alerting the team to the upcoming play? Why doesn't the OC have codes for plays instead of making his calls in plain language.
link to original post



The ‘live’ broadcast is probably delayed by 30 seconds. I’ve had my phone on a betting ap and see the score is 10-7. But I’m watching and it’s 7-7. They inbound the ball, drain the 24 second clock…. and of course hit a 3 pointer….

An easier answer to your question…. The XFL is NOT about fair competition. It’s a TV show first. The TV product trumps all else.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
March 28th, 2023 at 10:13:25 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


There is so much bias against Jokic in the MVP discussion amongst the talking heads on TV it is ridiculous. He dominated the 76ers last night while Embiid took a rest day. 25/17/12.



I would say they are pretty close this year but since Jokic has won it the last two years they will probably give it to Embid.
link to original post



I LOVE watching Embiid play. Jokic as well. As great as Embiid has been, Jokic has been better. He gets his team a lead. He gets his rest. The Nuggets suck without him on the court. The other team comes back to tie or take the lead. Jokic re enters game. Nuggets win.
No link, but I read/heard that advanced metrics have this Jokic year as better than his other two years, and one of the best seasons ever by any NBA player.
MidwestAP
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March 28th, 2023 at 10:34:28 AM permalink
That is for sure, the XFL is production first. But, that being said, I think I've caught all but two or three of the XFL games this season and I wouldn't characterize it as 'not fair' as all parties are aware of the audio feeds that come from the coaches.

I actually find the product on the field surprisingly good. Even with a few of the quirky rules, it's resembles football that we watch in the fall, but the games take on average 2 hr and 50 minutes, there are fewer penalties being called (last night may have been the exception to this), replay booth is quick and efficient and the transparency between the officials and replay booth is great to see and fun to listen in. I think Dean Blandino does a great job as the replay official.
AxelWolf
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March 28th, 2023 at 10:36:29 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Watched the end of what I assume was the first MNF XFL game. Houston was down by 17 with two minutes left, but because of the three point after touchdown rule, they were only two scores down. They got stopped on the goal line just before the two minute warning,scored but failed on the PAT. Now down by 11, they went for the 4th and 15 variant of the onside kick and threw a nice hook and ladder play that DC snuffed out.
As the Houston coordinator called for the hook and ladder play on live television, what is there to stop DC for having a guy listening to the broadcast and alerting the team to the upcoming play? Why doesn't the OC have codes for plays instead of making his calls in plain language.
link to original post

That was a fun game, we had DC and the over, I say we because it was actually my wife's pick who suggested I take them if I had to make some bets anyways( she has been watching XFL ). It started out a bit slow and then things heated up. They even ejected a player for a blatant late personal foul.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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March 29th, 2023 at 4:26:42 AM permalink
HSRiddles-
Quote:

Solid game from the Raptors at home to comfortably cover the spread, especially for people that took the live. Although the last O7 play pushed, I'm all about trying again - so let's go for another hockey game. NBA is a bit of a shitshow with the season wrapping up and injuries, resting, and motivation all over the place. I like this pick for a few reasons

POTD Record: 33-10-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅

Yesterday's POTD: Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors -2.5 | 3U | NBA✅

Today's POTD: Florida Panthers @ Toronto Maple Leafs O7 | 3U | NHL

Time: March 29, 7:30PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +59.99 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠In their last matchup, the game went to 8 goals, and this is with Florida only putting up 2 - I expect them to come back with a vengeance, especially after their recent loss against Ottawa.
2. ⁠The leafs still maintain the 3rd best powerplay in the league with insane offensive and playmaking talent between Nylander, Matthews, and Marner. This, in combination with the fact that the Panthers record the 3rd most penalties this season (thanks Tkatchuk), and the 5th worst PK, I expect the leafs to not only get a lot of powerplays, but also convert them.
3. ⁠The panthers are also decent on the powerplay, with 11th best powerplay at 22%, and averaging the 5th highest goals with an average of 3.5.
4. ⁠The leafs are averaging goal goals for and 3 against in their last 10 games, which include a few notable strong defense in carolina twice, and the avalanche, while of course also including the panthers that they beat 6-2.
5. ⁠The panthers on the other hand are averaging roughly 4 goals for and 4 goals against, letting in 6, 6, 4, and 5 in their last 4 games.
6. ⁠Toronto is currently ranked 30th in expected goals against this season (3.6) and have recently been resting their defenseman each game in preparation for the playoff. It's unclear who they're going to bench tomorrow, but it's possible they bench another important defenceman.
7. ⁠Matthews has gotten hot recently, scoring 2 goals in their last game, and a whopping 15 shots in the game before that. Matthews is a lethal scorer, and I expect him to continue this pace in the next few games
8. ⁠The leafs have covered the total in 7 of their last 10 games, and the panthers have also covered the over in 7 of their last 10 games, and the over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 matchups.
9. ⁠Both goalies, assuming Bobrovsky and Samsonov play, who are the most likely at the moment, have been playing much worse than normal as o f recently, with Samsonov giving up 7 goals against the islanders recently and as noted above, ottawa letting in on average 5 goals per game in their last 4. I expect this game to come off to a hot start.
10. ⁠Overall, with the leafs trying to maintain the seeding spot above the Tampa who have recently been playing better, and the panthers now 3 points out of a playoff spot, expect both teams to play at playoff calibre. With the recent 5-2 loss against the leafs, the game got a bit chippy near the end. I expect some bad blood between the two teams, and an increase in penalties taken.

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
March 29th, 2023 at 5:38:16 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

HSRiddles-

Quote:

Solid game from the Raptors at home to comfortably cover the spread, especially for people that took the live. Although the last O7 play pushed, I'm all about trying again - so let's go for another hockey game. NBA is a bit of a shitshow with the season wrapping up and injuries, resting, and motivation all over the place. I like this pick for a few reasons

POTD Record: 33-10-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅

Yesterday's POTD: Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors -2.5 | 3U | NBA✅

Today's POTD: Florida Panthers @ Toronto Maple Leafs O7 | 3U | NHL

Time: March 29, 7:30PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +59.99 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠In their last matchup, the game went to 8 goals, and this is with Florida only putting up 2 - I expect them to come back with a vengeance, especially after their recent loss against Ottawa.
2. ⁠The leafs still maintain the 3rd best powerplay in the league with insane offensive and playmaking talent between Nylander, Matthews, and Marner. This, in combination with the fact that the Panthers record the 3rd most penalties this season (thanks Tkatchuk), and the 5th worst PK, I expect the leafs to not only get a lot of powerplays, but also convert them.
3. ⁠The panthers are also decent on the powerplay, with 11th best powerplay at 22%, and averaging the 5th highest goals with an average of 3.5.
4. ⁠The leafs are averaging goal goals for and 3 against in their last 10 games, which include a few notable strong defense in carolina twice, and the avalanche, while of course also including the panthers that they beat 6-2.
5. ⁠The panthers on the other hand are averaging roughly 4 goals for and 4 goals against, letting in 6, 6, 4, and 5 in their last 4 games.
6. ⁠Toronto is currently ranked 30th in expected goals against this season (3.6) and have recently been resting their defenseman each game in preparation for the playoff. It's unclear who they're going to bench tomorrow, but it's possible they bench another important defenceman.
7. ⁠Matthews has gotten hot recently, scoring 2 goals in their last game, and a whopping 15 shots in the game before that. Matthews is a lethal scorer, and I expect him to continue this pace in the next few games
8. ⁠The leafs have covered the total in 7 of their last 10 games, and the panthers have also covered the over in 7 of their last 10 games, and the over is 7-1-1 in their last 9 matchups.
9. ⁠Both goalies, assuming Bobrovsky and Samsonov play, who are the most likely at the moment, have been playing much worse than normal as o f recently, with Samsonov giving up 7 goals against the islanders recently and as noted above, ottawa letting in on average 5 goals per game in their last 4. I expect this game to come off to a hot start.
10. ⁠Overall, with the leafs trying to maintain the seeding spot above the Tampa who have recently been playing better, and the panthers now 3 points out of a playoff spot, expect both teams to play at playoff calibre. With the recent 5-2 loss against the leafs, the game got a bit chippy near the end. I expect some bad blood between the two teams, and an increase in penalties taken.

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex


link to original post



Easy win yesterday on Raptors. (After dismal start down 10 early). BetRivers has over 7 at +100 so that’s my bet. Leafs 5 Panthers 3.
More so than the win itself, his analysis was spot on.

Im beginning to believe there are those with inside info on injuries/sit outs that are making a killing. I had Thunder -6 before Gilgeous-Alexander was announced as out. Thunder lost outright. Was on the right side of the Heat game missing Butler. Was also on right side of Pistons/Bucks with Giannis missing game. Bucks were 12.5 point faves before the announcement of both Giannis and Holiday out. They ended up still 10.5 faves. Won by 11.
Huge difference in over/under bets. When Thompson or Curry is out Poole averages 25 or so. When they both start Poole averages 17 or so. Similar for Quickley on the Knicks when Brunson is out.

Yesterday FanDual had Curry 25. Ingram 20. Thompson 15 at +150. Must have been +EV as they average around 29, 25, and 20. . DraftKings gave away 10 dollars giving you Curry/Thompson/Trey Murphy to combine for 10 3’s. Murphy had 10 3’s himself in his last game. They combined for 16 easily coveting. FD let me be $50 to win $75.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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March 29th, 2023 at 6:29:21 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Yesterday FanDual had Curry 25. Ingram 20. Thompson 15 at +150. Must have been +EV as they average around 29, 25, and 20. . DraftKings gave away 10 dollars giving you Curry/Thompson/Trey Murphy to combine for 10 3’s. Murphy had 10 3’s himself in his last game. They combined for 16 easily coveting. FD let me be $50 to win $75.


do you think they are teasing the bettors by deliberately giving them a few + EV chances and only allowing small bets_____?

or do you think they mispriced the bets due to incompetence_________?

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 29, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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March 30th, 2023 at 4:41:17 AM permalink
MLB opening Day!

HSRiddles-
Quote:

Welp - that was a sad game. Random AHL goalie goes on to put up 38 saves, overall teams go 1/8 on the powerplay, 69 shots, but all crushed by a 30 year old that's only played 23 games in his career in the NHL with a 3.82GAA this season. Shit happens unfortunately, tough loss. With the MLB starting up, I have to send one for tomorrow <3. Will probably avoid NHL over unders for these plays as theyre just so inconsistent.

POTD Record: 33-11-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌

Yesterday's POTD: Florida Panthers @ Toronto Maple Leafs O7 | 3U | NHL ❌

Today's POTD: Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 RL | 3U | MLB

Time: March 30, 3:10PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +57.49 Units | ≈68.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠My analysis for MLB games will get more in depth over time, but I don't like using last years stats too much for this year, so this will be brief in the first week
2. ⁠The first game of any season is usually tough since all the bull pen is rested, and allow the teams to be more versatile with who they put up each inning against certain pitchers. Tampa has the 7th best bullpen vs the 28th for the tigers. I expect the Rays to be able to match up well against leftie/righties, and limit runs for the Tigers.
3. ⁠Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and hit the fewest home runs and scored the fewest run in the entire baseball last season, against a Rays team that's looking like a possible contender this year. Overall, the Rays outscored the Tigers by 16 runs in their 7 meetings.
4. ⁠McClanahan is expected to start, and he's coming off an insane season.
5. ⁠Detroit is relying very heavily on young talent, who consistently aren't great in home openers, particularly against strong pitchers.
6. ⁠Rays will be at home where they have a 51-30 record last year - they will be excited to start the season off on a good foot in front of their people
7. ⁠Rays are coming off a 10-11 loss to detroit last sunday, and expect them to come into this game with some more intensity.

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it. I've had a few people message me that they want to tip but are still in a net loss position this year. I just wanted to re-iterate that as much as I appreciate tips, they are never expected - please only tip if you are in a financial position to do so.

Buy me a coffee| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

lilredrooster
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March 30th, 2023 at 6:34:18 AM permalink
.


as I posted the other day this guy makes some mistakes - he's sloppy
on this post he never gives the odds which are about -105

some other thoughts re the run line in baseball
it might seem obvious but the home team will not bat in the 9th if they are ahead - 12% less chance to score runs
the home fave will win by 2 or more only 39% of the time while the road fave will win by 2 or more 44% of the time

per the link - underdogs will win or cover on the run line 61% of the time at home and 56% of the time on the road

in this game by taking the run line his odds went from about -240 on a straight bet to about -105 - the payout if a win is well more than double the payout on a straight bet


https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/how-to/baseball-run-line-betting/#:~:text=teams%20are%20playing.-,Roughly%2028%25%20of%20all%20MLB%20games%20are%20decided%20by%20one,Favorite%20wins%20by%20one

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Mar 30, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 30th, 2023 at 8:56:10 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO


Yesterday FanDual had Curry 25. Ingram 20. Thompson 15 at +150. Must have been +EV as they average around 29, 25, and 20. . DraftKings gave away 10 dollars giving you Curry/Thompson/Trey Murphy to combine for 10 3’s. Murphy had 10 3’s himself in his last game. They combined for 16 easily coveting. FD let me be $50 to win $75.


do you think they are teasing the bettors by deliberately giving them a few + EV chances and only allowing small bets_____?

or do you think they mispriced the bets due to incompetence_________?

.
link to original post



These examples are intentional. The +EV is small usually. Occasionally, especially DraftKings, they give a big +EV offer on purpose but limit you to $10. So if an offer is for +140 on a totally even pick, they are really only giving away $2 per bet. My stupid $10 on women’s tennis comes close to that in -EV.

There are rare examples when they make a mistake. But the ones you quoted me on above are clearly promotional in nature.

Lots of baseball offers today. Most involve parlays. I (probably foolishly) start them all with the Yankees. I can use a Judge first inning homer…..
DRich
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March 30th, 2023 at 1:53:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I can use a Judge first inning homer…..



I think Aaron may have read this thread. Congrats, nothing like homering in your first at bat of the year.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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March 30th, 2023 at 3:34:32 PM permalink
This seems decent, any other takers?

Jaylen Brown’s season average is 35.9. He hasn’t had a single game this season under 25pts

Last edited by: gamerfreak on Mar 30, 2023
SOOPOO
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March 30th, 2023 at 7:58:23 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

This seems decent, any other takers?

Jaylen Brown’s season average is 35.9. He hasn’t had a single game this season under 25pts


link to original post



Not sure what you are reading. Jaylennbrown was averaging around 26 or 27 points a game. Fair odds on over 24.5 was probably -130 or so, thus +100 was a good bet. I was limited to $10.
Hope you got the bet in.

My boosts today included the Judge HR and Yanks and Mets wins so a very good day.

Last bets are Pelicans ML, Pelicans -1.5, and Pelicans -6.5 at +200. Jokic not playing. Stats show Denver is the best team in the league when Jokic is on the court. And the worst team in the league when he is on the bench. BEST. to. WORST. Another reason why anyone not voting for him as MVP is just not knowledgeable enough about basketball, or is biased against him for one reason or another.
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Mar 30, 2023
gamerfreak
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March 31st, 2023 at 4:16:28 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: gamerfreak

This seems decent, any other takers?

Jaylen Brown’s season average is 35.9. He hasn’t had a single game this season under 25pts



Not sure what you are reading. Jaylennbrown was averaging around 26 or 27 points a game. Fair odds on over 24.5 was probably -130 or so, thus +100 was a good bet. I was limited to $10.
Hope you got the bet in.

My boosts today included the Judge HR and Yanks and Mets wins so a very good day.

Last bets are Pelicans ML, Pelicans -1.5, and Pelicans -6.5 at +200. Jokic not playing. Stats show Denver is the best team in the league when Jokic is on the court. And the worst team in the league when he is on the bench. BEST. to. WORST. Another reason why anyone not voting for him as MVP is just not knowledgeable enough about basketball, or is biased against him for one reason or another.
link to original post


Hah I must have been looking at minutes played last night when I wrote that (35.9), JB avg points scored is actually 26.9. Still glad I took the bet though!
gamerfreak
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March 31st, 2023 at 4:18:16 AM permalink
HSRiddles -
Quote:

Nice win by the rays - their depth in the bull pen shines through as they keep the tigers to zero points. Now, slates are getting all over the place with NBA injuries, resting, NHL best teams coasting, so it's getting hard. What's the best way to avoid this? Pick 2 teams that aren't playing for much, and pick the one with less injuries. Give me the rockets tomorrow.

POTD Record: 34-11-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅

Yesterday's POTD: Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 RL | 3U | MLB ✅

Today's POTD: Pistons @ Rockets -4.5 (up to -5) | 3U | NBA

Time: March 31, 8:10PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +60.49 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠Alright, so it's hard to talk nicely about which bottom 30 team is better - but let's go through a few reasons why I lean Rockets here.
2. ⁠First, my model has the Rockets by an average of 12 points with the current injuries and home advantage, which was my reason for the starting point on going for the rockets here.
3. ⁠Rockets, although awful, have still managed to pull themselves together at times beating a few top teams in a stretch about a month ago. Although both teams are on a 7 loss streak, Houston has won 3/10 (including wins against pelicans, lakers and Celtics), while Houston are 1/10, only beating the pacers on a back to back.
4. ⁠Pistons are missing two of their best players in Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic, and now Alex Burks has been downgraded to OUT as well. On top of that, Pistons are also missing 3 other bench players on a team already struggling in depth. They will be on the road with a beaten down team.
5. ⁠Houston has the home advantage, so they atleast have one thing to play for to bring some joy to the Houston crowd.
6. ⁠Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr have been having pretty decent seasons, along with Sengun on the rebounds. I expect them to be able to control the pace of the game, and bring on some pace to rile up the crowd.
7. ⁠Pistons are 7-30 on the road this season, and Rockets took the victory AT Detroit in their last game in January by a 3 point margin
8. ⁠Despite all t heir garbage stat lines, Houston does manage to rank #4 in rebounds with 46 on average per game, and with Sengun in and Bogdanovic out, this number is expected to be 50+
9. ⁠Overall, these are 2 garbage teams with nothing to play for, this will be a battle of young players trying to prove themselves on both sides, of which I think Houston holds the advantage with many more starters in, home advantage, and a big board advantage.
10. ⁠This will likely be the last time I ever pick the rockets, but it feels right.

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it.

Buy me a coffee | Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

SOOPOO
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March 31st, 2023 at 6:53:53 AM permalink
Then Rockets it is tonight!
I want to re-stress how useless season long performance is in the NBA when a truly star player, without a real solid alternative, is out. The Nuggets best in the west record is 100% MEANINGLESS if Jokic isn’t playing. I’ll keep betting on them when he’s in, and against them when he’s out. I don’t think the books move the odds nearly enough to compensate. The Nuggets underscored their average by 28 points yesterday.

The other markedly +EV bet yesterday, on purpose as a promotion, was even money on Ohtani to get a hit. He probably gets a hit in over 70% of his games, without looking it up. It cashed.

Edit…. Best I can get Rockets is -5.5, and he said ‘up to -5’, I bet small amount anyway at -5.5.
gamerfreak
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March 31st, 2023 at 7:12:52 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Then Rockets it is tonight!
I want to re-stress how useless season long performance is in the NBA when a truly star player, without a real solid alternative, is out. The Nuggets best in the west record is 100% MEANINGLESS if Jokic isn’t playing. I’ll keep betting on them when he’s in, and against them when he’s out. I don’t think the books move the odds nearly enough to compensate. The Nuggets underscored their average by 28 points yesterday.

The other markedly +EV bet yesterday, on purpose as a promotion, was even money on Ohtani to get a hit. He probably gets a hit in over 70% of his games, without looking it up. It cashed.

Edit…. Best I can get Rockets is -5.5, and he said ‘up to -5’, I bet small amount anyway at -5.5.
link to original post


The lines moved pretty quickly this morning. I was able to get at -5 at -108 but I am only seeing -5.5 at -110 now
smoothgrh
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March 31st, 2023 at 10:39:45 AM permalink
I hope no bad unintended consequences occur, but so far the pitch clock (and 2 hour, 30 minute games) has been great!

https://sports.yahoo.com/pitch-clock-hits-a-home-run-on-opening-day-shortening-games-by-26-minutes-over-2022-161245689.html
SOOPOO
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March 31st, 2023 at 12:33:43 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

I hope no bad unintended consequences occur, but so far the pitch clock (and 2 hour, 30 minute games) has been great!

https://sports.yahoo.com/pitch-clock-hits-a-home-run-on-opening-day-shortening-games-by-26-minutes-over-2022-161245689.html
link to original post



I think MLB would consider all the changes positive. Limiting pick off attempts is great. Less standing around waiting for a pitcher to pitch is great. Requiring a quicker decision on whether to challenge is great. More attempted stolen bases (at least theoretically) is great. They penalized Pete Alonso for taking too long to return to first base after a foul ball! Great!

I lost count (that’s good!) of how many free bets/profit boosts/risk free bets/parlay insurance type bets I have today!
They DK +EV offers today are Boegarts to get a hit at even money( he probably gets a hit in 70+% of his games) and James over 24.5 points at even money. He averages around 27.
My favorite play today, both at small + odds, is Rockies under 8, and Rockies over 7.5. Go 8 run game!
lilredrooster
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March 31st, 2023 at 2:14:32 PM permalink
.

in hoops I estimate that the line will move against the home fave as the day goes by at least 80% of the time
some of the big books open up their betting at 12:45 a.m.
those betting then on the home fave very early might get as much as 1.5 points better than those betting close to game time
I would guesstimate that they win or push (instead of a loss) on at least 10% more of their bets on the home fave than those betting much later
they might miss out on news but that's a zero sum thing - might help you - might hurt you
betting in the very early a.m. blindly on the home fave in hoops might even be a close to break even thing - or possible even better than that

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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March 31st, 2023 at 2:51:02 PM permalink
I like LSU -2 and South Carolina -11 tonight,
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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March 31st, 2023 at 5:01:15 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

in hoops I estimate that the line will move against the home fave as the day goes by at least 80% of the time
some of the big books open up their betting at 12:45 a.m.
those betting then on the home fave very early might get as much as 1.5 points better than those betting close to game time
I would guesstimate that they win or push (instead of a loss) on at least 10% more of their bets on the home fave than those betting much later
they might miss out on news but that's a zero sum thing - might help you - might hurt you
betting in the very early a.m. blindly on the home fave in hoops might even be a close to break even thing - or possible even better than that

.
link to original post


I have had several bets where the book’s cash-out offer grew higher than my wager BEFORE the game started.
SOOPOO
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March 31st, 2023 at 8:35:10 PM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: lilredrooster

.

in hoops I estimate that the line will move against the home fave as the day goes by at least 80% of the time
some of the big books open up their betting at 12:45 a.m.
those betting then on the home fave very early might get as much as 1.5 points better than those betting close to game time
I would guesstimate that they win or push (instead of a loss) on at least 10% more of their bets on the home fave than those betting much later
they might miss out on news but that's a zero sum thing - might help you - might hurt you
betting in the very early a.m. blindly on the home fave in hoops might even be a close to break even thing - or possible even better than that

.
link to original post


I have had several bets where the book’s cash-out offer grew higher than my wager BEFORE the game started.
link to original post



Me too. But likely more the other way. Meaning I have +3 but the line moves to +4. I’ve had a few way worse than that when the surprise fake injury takes a key player out ‘surprisingly’.

Interesting theory lilred. So you think that a favorite starting as a 3 point fave will more often than not move to 3.5 or 4 or more? Seems hard to believe. Is there actually any evidence of this? Seems like it would be easy to find for a good data miner.
Certainly happened today in the Rockets game. They started at 4.5 and ended at 6.5.

Our guy won again. Rockets won by 6. I’m glad I got in at -5.5.
lilredrooster
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April 1st, 2023 at 1:14:59 AM permalink
.

I just looked at several NBA games and the line history and it looks like I was wrong about the line movement
should have looked before I posted
not the first time I've been wrong - my bad

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 1, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
gamerfreak
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April 1st, 2023 at 2:35:19 AM permalink
HSRiddles-
Quote:

First and maybe last time I bet on such a disgusting bottom feeder game, but our boys in red come through to get us the dub. As disclaimer, if I do suggest a spread (up to), that's usually a hard stop in terms of where the value drops off for me, so if the spread is outside of that number, I would no recommend tailing (you could buy down, but you do lose a lot of value). Let's roll with some NCAAB today - now I know most of you expected Uconn, which I'm still slamming, but going for an under play on the other game for tomorrow. Sickness in the Uconn game has me worried, will look to live bet that game instead.

POTD Record: 35-11-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅✅

Yesterday's POTD: Pistons @ Rockets -4.5 (up to -5) | 3U | NBA ✅

Today's POTD: SDS vs. FAU | Under 132.5 (down to U131.5) | 3U | NCAAB March Madness

Time: April 1, 6:09PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +60.49 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠To start us off, as always, let's look at the stats here. Per Bart Torvik, SDS is ranked #3 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and FAU is ranked #35. Both of these teams are solid on defense. On the other side, FAU is ranked #37 in offense, and SDS is ranked #62. both teams are overall better on defense than they are offense.
2. ⁠Under Kenpom, similar results, SDS is ranked #4 on defense, and FAU ranked #30, and on offense 24 for FAU and 75 FAU. Both teams made it this far with their defense, and I expect this to be no different than a slug fest of passing and shot clock violations
3. ⁠A wild stat, the last 10 games for SDS has gone under, and 5 of the last 7 for FAU has gone under. SDS is just insane defensively, and really limit opportunities. Moreover, the under has hit 9 in the last 9 games where SDS was also the favourite.
4. ⁠SDS has won against 2 of the best offensive teams in the country in Creighton and Alabama, and I expect them to be able to shut down a much weaker offense in FAU when comparable to their last 2 matchups.
5. ⁠Kenpom has SDS ranked #266 and FAU ranked #155 in pace - so I expect this game to be played to full shot clocks, with careful passing to try to find open looks.
6. ⁠SDS has kept 5 of 7 of their last opponents to under 60 points, and I expect this to be a game of attrition as teams try to find any bucket they can.
7. ⁠Overall - I expect this game to be a slugfest, with very few buckets - and can consider the Under 1H spread instead down to 60. This will be a fun one just like watching paint dry is fun. Defensive clinic with SDS winning.

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it.

Buy me a coffee

| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

lilredrooster
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April 1st, 2023 at 2:46:04 AM permalink
.

just looked at SDSU's last 10 games

they've held opponents to an average of 57.7 p.p.g.

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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April 1st, 2023 at 5:08:14 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

just looked at SDSU's last 10 games

they've held opponents to an average of 57.7 p.p.g.



Their defense has really been giving teams problems in this tournament. They are fast, physical, and that 1-3-1 defense seems to confuse the other teams.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
gamerfreak
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April 1st, 2023 at 7:06:55 AM permalink
I was looking into how books set lines, and found an interesting Reddit post from almost 10 years ago -

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1vgqpu/part_3_of_i_got_messaged_this_question_and/

In particular, the part about Reverse Line Movements

Quote:

**SO WHY DO BOOKMAKERS SOMETIMES MOVE THEIR LINES IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION?**

So now we’re into reading line movements. There are a few different sources for this… scoresandodds.com has a casino grid that’s OK, and pregame.com also has one that’s OK (there are links in the side-bar). Basically it tells you the %age of money wagered on each side, and the current line.

*Is this information accurate?*

Not even close. BUT that doesn’t it's useless… it’s a very decent view of where the public betting money is going. The problem is that it doesn’t include any private money (e.g., a sharp who calls in a large bet instead of placing it online). As long as you know it’s a rough, not-close-to-perfect estimate of public betting only, then it’s absolutely fine to use.

*What does normal line movement look like?*

If the line is getting more expensive on the side where most of the wagers are coming in, that’s normal (e.g., Team A -6 is the line, and 90% of betting is on Team A… line moves to Team A -7).

*What does reverse line movement look like?*

The opposite. 90% of betting is on Team A… but the line moves to Team A -5. This can happen for two reasons:

* There is so much private money coming in, that it more than outweighs the public majority, OR:

* The bookmakers see a game that they feel is reasonably predictable (they know something the public doesn’t know).

The majority of the time, RLM’s are due to sharp/private money, and historically they hit about 57% of the time. Useful to know because it means any RLM has positive expected value.

However, sometimes it is actually the bookies as well. This is almost always a call made by a major sports book, and it is certainly rare… but to say bookies never take a side is incorrect.

The major sports books are the ones with the floats to take a "side"—and when they do it’s usually on a relatively low-volume event (read: never an NFL game)... and usually involves shorting a favorite (e.g., MIA in NBA).

**Regardless of what causes RLM, how can I use it to make money?**

Because we know RLM has positive expected value, it can be a great red-flag if it is moving against you, or a way to add higher confidence value to your existing picks.



Is this information dated? Online sports betting in the US is are completely different animal compared to 10 years ago. All of this about small books and “private money” seems like it could no longer apply.
SOOPOO
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April 1st, 2023 at 11:53:57 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

HSRiddles-

Quote:

First and maybe last time I bet on such a disgusting bottom feeder game, but our boys in red come through to get us the dub. As disclaimer, if I do suggest a spread (up to), that's usually a hard stop in terms of where the value drops off for me, so if the spread is outside of that number, I would no recommend tailing (you could buy down, but you do lose a lot of value). Let's roll with some NCAAB today - now I know most of you expected Uconn, which I'm still slamming, but going for an under play on the other game for tomorrow. Sickness in the Uconn game has me worried, will look to live bet that game instead.

POTD Record: 35-11-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅✅

Yesterday's POTD: Pistons @ Rockets -4.5 (up to -5) | 3U | NBA ✅

Today's POTD: SDS vs. FAU | Under 132.5 (down to U131.5) | 3U | NCAAB March Madness

Time: April 1, 6:09PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +60.49 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠To start us off, as always, let's look at the stats here. Per Bart Torvik, SDS is ranked #3 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and FAU is ranked #35. Both of these teams are solid on defense. On the other side, FAU is ranked #37 in offense, and SDS is ranked #62. both teams are overall better on defense than they are offense.
2. ⁠Under Kenpom, similar results, SDS is ranked #4 on defense, and FAU ranked #30, and on offense 24 for FAU and 75 FAU. Both teams made it this far with their defense, and I expect this to be no different than a slug fest of passing and shot clock violations
3. ⁠A wild stat, the last 10 games for SDS has gone under, and 5 of the last 7 for FAU has gone under. SDS is just insane defensively, and really limit opportunities. Moreover, the under has hit 9 in the last 9 games where SDS was also the favourite.
4. ⁠SDS has won against 2 of the best offensive teams in the country in Creighton and Alabama, and I expect them to be able to shut down a much weaker offense in FAU when comparable to their last 2 matchups.
5. ⁠Kenpom has SDS ranked #266 and FAU ranked #155 in pace - so I expect this game to be played to full shot clocks, with careful passing to try to find open looks.
6. ⁠SDS has kept 5 of 7 of their last opponents to under 60 points, and I expect this to be a game of attrition as teams try to find any bucket they can.
7. ⁠Overall - I expect this game to be a slugfest, with very few buckets - and can consider the Under 1H spread instead down to 60. This will be a fun one just like watching paint dry is fun. Defensive clinic with SDS winning.

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it.

Buy me a coffee

| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex


link to original post



The lines now available are under 131 or even 130.5. I did get a parlay in yesterday including under 131.5.

I got one +EV offer from FD. It was a boost in their ‘final four specials’. I used it for UConn to be the highest scoring team in the final 4 semifinal games.
Rounded, the over under for each team is UConn 77, Miami 72, SdSt 66, FAU 64. So I think plus 105 is +EV.
DRich
DRich
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April 1st, 2023 at 12:23:31 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



I got one +EV offer from FD. It was a boost in their ‘final four specials’. I used it for UConn to be the highest scoring team in the final 4 semifinal games.
Rounded, the over under for each team is UConn 77, Miami 72, SdSt 66, FAU 64. So I think plus 105 is +EV.
link to original post



I think you made a good bet. The SDSU defense is good so I would expect that game to be a lot lower scoring.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 1st, 2023 at 10:12:36 PM permalink
Obviously, XFL is new, so records are going to happen, but they keep settings record-overs. I'm still betting some of the overs whenever I have to roll over action or use FP. The Bookmakers still keep slowly raising the line.

Defenders

14
8
6
8
36

Guardians

12
6
13
6
37
DC loses by 1 point. Ouch!!
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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April 2nd, 2023 at 2:37:16 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I got one +EV offer from FD. It was a boost in their ‘final four specials’. I used it for UConn to be the highest scoring team in the final 4 semifinal games.
Rounded, the over under for each team is UConn 77, Miami 72, SdSt 66, FAU 64. So I think plus 105 is +EV.
link to original post


I took this too.

Can’t believe UCONN and SDS both scored exactly 72 points last night.

I have heard some people claiming they got paid half their original wager. FD pushed it for me.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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April 2nd, 2023 at 8:12:11 AM permalink
Reddit guy is MIA today 🤨
TinMan
TinMan
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April 2nd, 2023 at 9:14:20 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: SOOPOO

I got one +EV offer from FD. It was a boost in their ‘final four specials’. I used it for UConn to be the highest scoring team in the final 4 semifinal games.
Rounded, the over under for each team is UConn 77, Miami 72, SdSt 66, FAU 64. So I think plus 105 is +EV.
link to original post


I took this too.

Can’t believe UCONN and SDS both scored exactly 72 points last night.

I have heard some people claiming they got paid half their original wager. FD pushed it for me.
link to original post



I took SDSU for top scoring FF team. +700 boosted to +1050. $25 bet on FD paid $143.75.
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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April 2nd, 2023 at 12:45:51 PM permalink
Quote:

Well boys - this was a tough one to watch, I probably avoid unders for POTDs as well not because this one missed, but because rooting for teams to miss is not very fun as a viewer. Both teams shot 40/50% from three and 44% from FG with over 43 free throws in the game - sucks that they both decided to play their best offensive when I root against them, but it happens. If you were in the discord we made a live call at 144.5 to take the under, so hopefully a few of you atleast broke even on it last night. Let's go back to baseball for a little bit as teams are starting to get settled in a bit.

POTD Record: 35-12-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅❌

Yesterday's POTD: SDSU vs. FAU U132.5 | 3U |❌

Today's POTD: Texas vs. Phillies O8.5 Runs | 3U | -105 | MLB

Time: April 2nd, 2023 | 7:08PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +60.79 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠I typically avoid trends in MLB, but the Phillies might have the worst pitching/bull pen in the league right now giving up 27 runs in 2 games.
2. ⁠The Phillies are still a solid offensive team, and although they're up against Perez who has been one of the bets pitchers in this league lately, Phillies have only scored 10 runs in the last 2 games, and lost the last 2 games, so I expect them to be playing as hot as they can to try to take one game in the final series. Stat wise, Texas is only a slight Favourite despite these dominating performances, so I expect this game to be a bit more equal offensively
3. ⁠Simple math, this game has has 37 runs in 2 games, and I expect this game to be no different.
4. ⁠Wind direction for most of the game is 10mph in favor of the batters from 7PM to 9PM - expect hits to go further, and more sideways to make it harder for outfielders to make catchers, and increased odds of homers making it over the walls.
5. ⁠Although Perez had an amazing season last year, this will be his first appearance, and its unclear how settled in he will be to start this game. Although Perez has a great season last year, historically he's not been an amazing pitcher averaging over a 4.5 ERA with other seasons in Texas, Boston and Minnesota. Did he have a lucky season last year? Maybe - let's see if he regresses to his old self, or if he's truly the pitcher that he was at the end of last season
6. ⁠Bailey Falter is the expected starter for Phillies, who throws left with a ERA of 4.36. He has not been very good lately, and will likely struggle against Semien to start us off who has been playing great as a right handed batter. I expect starting against a righty into 2 lefties will throw him off.
7. ⁠Overall, I expect Texas to stay hot, but look for the Phillies to try their best to avoid the series sweep but getting hotter at the bat. Perez has a sold Sub 3 ERA against the Phillies historically, but with this being his first game of the season, with a historically bad play in the past, I'm not sure if he can keep up his previous record.
8. ⁠Final prediction: 9-4 Texas

As always - thank you to everyone that's tipped. As my posts have been gaining traction, I've been spending a bit more time than usual trying to research my best pick, and I'm beyond happy to know I've made a bunch of you some good money, and hopefully can keep it rolling for as long as I can stomach it.

Buy me a coffee | Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord: https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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Joined: Dec 28, 2014
April 2nd, 2023 at 1:15:58 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

Quote: gamerfreak

Quote: SOOPOO

I got one +EV offer from FD. It was a boost in their ‘final four specials’. I used it for UConn to be the highest scoring team in the final 4 semifinal games.
Rounded, the over under for each team is UConn 77, Miami 72, SdSt 66, FAU 64. So I think plus 105 is +EV.
link to original post


I took this too.

Can’t believe UCONN and SDS both scored exactly 72 points last night.

I have heard some people claiming they got paid half their original wager. FD pushed it for me.
link to original post



I took SDSU for top scoring FF team. +700 boosted to +1050. $25 bet on FD paid $143.75.
link to original post


Interesting. I only bet $5. I looked at my transaction history and they originally only paid out $2.55. They reversed that today and instead paid out $5.10

What did they pay you SooPoo?


lilredrooster
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April 3rd, 2023 at 1:28:45 AM permalink
.

"RISK LOVE" is a proven thing in horse racing
you can see it in the favorite/longshot bias
a bet on the fave who usually pays very little comparatively will lose much less in the long run than a bet on the longest shot in the field
you can also see it in the plunger's willingness to bet against a gigantic takeout (much bigger than in the WPS pools) in the lottery style exotic bets - tri, superfecta, pick 6, etc.

I believe "RISK LOVE" is alive and well in MLB betting too

I believe when the odds against the fave are about -250 and these 2 things are obvious - the fave is a much better team, and the fave's pitcher is much better - that a bet on the fave - which will payout much less than the shot with a win - is a much better bet in the long run

unfortunately, I don't have data to prove this - and am not willing to do tons of research - but still, it guides my speculation - and I will report back on it


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 3, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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April 3rd, 2023 at 2:59:58 AM permalink
Quote:

Welp - another statistical wildcard. 17 damn hits and 3 runs. Their first game had 22 hits, and 18 runs. The timing of hits, double plays and insane catches were just crazy - 9 times out of 10, games with these stat lines easily go over 8.5, really frustrating games lately. Statistically, these last 2 POTDs should have hit with all else equal, i would take these plays 99 times out of 100 and they'd hit. To people messaging me saying the picks were bad after they didn't hit, need to please never tail me ever again, thank you. Bit frustrated and probably will regret making a POTD when tilted, but here we go.

POTD Record: 35-13-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅❌❌

Yesterday's POTD: Texas vs. Phillies O8.5 Runs | 3U | -105 | MLB

Today's POTD: Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros -1.5 | 3U | -110

Time: April 3rd, 2023 | 2:10PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +58.79 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠Baseball has been a bit all over the place - but I really like the Astros here at home to come back from a tough loss against the white sox. The tigers have been really dreadful lately scoring only 3 runs in 3 games so far getting blow out by the rays each game. As the tigers continue on their road trip to Houston, I'm predicting them to continue this cold streak until they get back to home territory.
2. ⁠Houston is 20-7 against Detroit in their last games, and seem to have the pitching tools to keep them under control year after year.
3. ⁠Hunter brown will be the starting pitcher and despite only having g2 games under his belt, has won with a 0.89ERA in his last 2 showings. I expect the young talent to play well, will little to no tape available for the opponents to study. He's expected to be only better than he was in his last 2 outings.
4. ⁠Houston, much like the Rays who Tiger struggled against, have a very gifted bull pen with deep and amazing pitching. I expect Detroit to run into similar cold streak in their hitting against a team with a world series level of pitching and pitching coaching
5. ⁠Houston is currently ranked 14th with an ERA of 4, compared to Detroit at 28th with 7.88.
6. ⁠Astros went 55--26 at home last season with 55-26 record, whilst the tigers had an away record of 30-50. Finishing with a 40% win rate.
7. ⁠Despite Astros going 2-2 so far this season, they've been struggling to hit only putting up 17 runs in 4 games, which is low for them.
8. ⁠Matthew Boyd despite starting 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, is still a 4.9 ERA pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP at the ripe age of 32. I don't think he will be improving each year, and despite his good record, a lot of his SOs were against the end of batting order.
9. ⁠The Astros still have some of the best hitters in the sport with Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman, who are currently all ranked top 40 Fantasy rankings for batters. I believe they've had a slow start, but with a fresh outing against a new team with strong coaching, I'm expecting this game to be a reminder that they are the defending champs.
10. ⁠Overall, I think the Astros should take this game relatively comfortably - predicted score of 7-2.

As a reminder as I finally have hit a cold streak with 2 Ls, that I always recommend to follow unit sizes, this is a marathon not a sprint, and variances in sports betting, no matter how much research you do, is always possible. I do my best to give you my best pick everyday for free, and sometimes things go south fast. Appreciate all of you understanding sports betting in the comments, but to everyone else, please just fade the picks, nobody loves you.

Buy me a coffee| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord:
https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 3rd, 2023 at 9:50:03 AM permalink
They paid me $25.50 for my $25bet! I’ve already spent that winning…. Guy missed two free throws with a few minutes to go. Then they didn’t even try to score last minute and a half. Oh well….

Often times they on these type bets specifically say ‘ties are losses’. But not this one.

I’m not in NY now so no betting for a while. I did have to pick one masters winner bet and picked McIlroy. I feel stupid for not picking Scheffler but….. they were making it seem like distance off the tee will be more important this year, and Rory has been out driving everyone on the holes that every extra yard helps.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
April 3rd, 2023 at 9:53:41 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Quote:

Welp - another statistical wildcard. 17 damn hits and 3 runs. Their first game had 22 hits, and 18 runs. The timing of hits, double plays and insane catches were just crazy - 9 times out of 10, games with these stat lines easily go over 8.5, really frustrating games lately. Statistically, these last 2 POTDs should have hit with all else equal, i would take these plays 99 times out of 100 and they'd hit. To people messaging me saying the picks were bad after they didn't hit, need to please never tail me ever again, thank you. Bit frustrated and probably will regret making a POTD when tilted, but here we go.

POTD Record: 35-13-2 | (1-2 on old model)
Last 25:✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✋✅❌✅❌❌

Yesterday's POTD: Texas vs. Phillies O8.5 Runs | 3U | -105 | MLB

Today's POTD: Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros -1.5 | 3U | -110

Time: April 3rd, 2023 | 2:10PM EST

MODEL EXPLANATION:
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.

Pick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing

POTD Stats: +58.79 Units | ≈70.86% ROI | Average odds -110

PICK REASON:

1. ⁠Baseball has been a bit all over the place - but I really like the Astros here at home to come back from a tough loss against the white sox. The tigers have been really dreadful lately scoring only 3 runs in 3 games so far getting blow out by the rays each game. As the tigers continue on their road trip to Houston, I'm predicting them to continue this cold streak until they get back to home territory.
2. ⁠Houston is 20-7 against Detroit in their last games, and seem to have the pitching tools to keep them under control year after year.
3. ⁠Hunter brown will be the starting pitcher and despite only having g2 games under his belt, has won with a 0.89ERA in his last 2 showings. I expect the young talent to play well, will little to no tape available for the opponents to study. He's expected to be only better than he was in his last 2 outings.
4. ⁠Houston, much like the Rays who Tiger struggled against, have a very gifted bull pen with deep and amazing pitching. I expect Detroit to run into similar cold streak in their hitting against a team with a world series level of pitching and pitching coaching
5. ⁠Houston is currently ranked 14th with an ERA of 4, compared to Detroit at 28th with 7.88.
6. ⁠Astros went 55--26 at home last season with 55-26 record, whilst the tigers had an away record of 30-50. Finishing with a 40% win rate.
7. ⁠Despite Astros going 2-2 so far this season, they've been struggling to hit only putting up 17 runs in 4 games, which is low for them.
8. ⁠Matthew Boyd despite starting 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, is still a 4.9 ERA pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP at the ripe age of 32. I don't think he will be improving each year, and despite his good record, a lot of his SOs were against the end of batting order.
9. ⁠The Astros still have some of the best hitters in the sport with Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman, who are currently all ranked top 40 Fantasy rankings for batters. I believe they've had a slow start, but with a fresh outing against a new team with strong coaching, I'm expecting this game to be a reminder that they are the defending champs.
10. ⁠Overall, I think the Astros should take this game relatively comfortably - predicted score of 7-2.

As a reminder as I finally have hit a cold streak with 2 Ls, that I always recommend to follow unit sizes, this is a marathon not a sprint, and variances in sports betting, no matter how much research you do, is always possible. I do my best to give you my best pick everyday for free, and sometimes things go south fast. Appreciate all of you understanding sports betting in the comments, but to everyone else, please just fade the picks, nobody loves you.

Buy me a coffee| Paypal

Much love,

Riddles,

Discord:
https://discord.gg/dpnyvnkhex


link to original post



I’d be betting with our guy. The Tigers look like a minor league team. They will win 1/3 of their games though, as baseball has way more variance than the other sports. You will rarely see a 3-1 underdog in baseball, but the NBA has a few 5-1 or longer dogs most days.
LESLOSACKETT
LESLOSACKETT
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April 3rd, 2023 at 10:25:12 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

"RISK LOVE" is a proven thing in horse racing
you can see it in the favorite/longshot bias
a bet on the fave who usually pays very little comparatively will lose much less in the long run than a bet on the longest shot in the field
you can also see it in the plunger's willingness to bet against a gigantic takeout (much bigger than in the WPS pools) in the lottery style exotic bets - tri, superfecta, pick 6, etc.

I believe "RISK LOVE" is alive and well in MLB betting too

I believe when the odds against the fave are about -250 and these 2 things are obvious - the fave is a much better team, and the fave's pitcher is much better - that a bet on the fave - which will payout much less than the shot with a win - is a much better bet in the long run

unfortunately, I don't have data to prove this - and am not willing to do tons of research - but still, it guides my speculation - and I will report back on it


.
link to original post




Not much research needed. Lose less per unit betting on even money in horse racing than betting same unit on 2 to 1 price, Lose less on betting 2 to 1 than 5 to1, lose less betting on 5 to 1 than 10 to 1,etc,KEY WORD IS LOSE.
WPS usally around 17%, Exotics 23-30% KEY WORD IS TAX REDUCING PAYOUT ADDED TO LOSSES
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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April 4th, 2023 at 2:38:25 AM permalink
The WWE has been sold, merging with UFC. Vince McMahon joins the club of best businessmen ever turning a $1 million outfit in 1983 to about $9 billion today. It appears they will be sister corporations under a parent, Endeavor. WWE at least partially found itself it the situation of many family companies, not being able to pass from generation 2 to the third.

I do hope that the new owners treat the film library with the respect it deserves. Whatever else you can say about Vince, the guy understood the 1980s was a golden age for the "sport" and kept the history around.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Joined: May 8, 2015
April 4th, 2023 at 3:35:18 AM permalink
.

I'll post a pick - haven't done much lately but I have a + history here -

my fave kind of MLB pick - an extreme fave - both the Dodgers team and the listed pitcher are much the better

my belief - even though it's a smallish payout I believe it's an overlay because gamblers being gamblers greatly prefer large payouts to small ones

you can get a much larger payout on the run line - 1.5 - but I don't do that - I believe the vig is considerably higher on the run line

here we go - have fun watching it tank making me look like an idiot_____________(-:\



Dodgers -250 over Rockies



here is a great example of the books strategy of short paying the bettor trying to get a bigger payout - this time on the run line

a straight bet on Toronto is priced at -165 at Wynn and the underdog will pay +150

on the run line line - 1.5 at Wynn - the Orioles will pay -165 - but the underdog will only pay +140

actually, I believe they used some calculation to short pay both the fave and the underdog by an equal amount compared to a straight bet




.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Apr 4, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
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