Sports betting chatter
Quote: DRichOne week from today college football starts. I am already anxious and sweaty.
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Go to our 2026 WOV Picks Game thread and signup for our college Picks games!! We won't have a 2026 college football Picks contest unless people ecxpress interest in it.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: DRichOne week from today college football starts. I am already anxious and sweaty.
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Go to our 2026 WOV Picks Game thread and signup for our college Picks games!! We won't have a 2026 college football Picks contest unless people ecxpress interest in it.
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Thank you, but I am not interested in contests. I don't believe I have participated in one here at WOV in 15 years.
had to look this upQuote: SOOPOOGot some N.C.A.A. offers. Need assistance from DRich. Who do you like week 0?
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Quote: googlebotCollege football's "Week 0" is an early opening slate of games played one week before the traditional Labor Day weekend start known as "Week 1".Why Week 0 ExistsThe Hawaii Rule: Teams playing a road game at the University of Hawaii get an extra game on their schedule to help offset high travel costs.Special Waivers: Teams playing overseas or wanting a national television spotlight before the main season begins can apply for special permission.Soft Launch: It gives fans a small appetizer of games while networks capture early high ratings.
HR has a promo going where you get a $100 in bonus bets for betting $5! $20 instantly, even before first bet resolved*, and the rest one week at a time. I couldn't say no!
[possibly you have to bet another $5 each week, but it's not worded that way. I won't complain if that's the case]
* always reassuring, that way you know you just didn't miss fine print somewhere
give an exampleQuote: gsshsshRisking a large amount for a very small return can be reasonable mathematically, but only if the estimated probability is genuinely accurate. The problem is that rare outcomes are often underestimated, and one unexpected result can erase the profit from a long series of successful bets.
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I'm not sure what post you are replying or referring to
Quote: SOOPOOGot some N.C.A.A. offers. Need assistance from DRich. Who do you like week 0?
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I have small bets on TCU and UNLV. You may want to bet against as I have lost the last two years. I don't bet much the first couple of weeks until I have seen the teams play.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOGot some N.C.A.A. offers. Need assistance from DRich. Who do you like week 0?
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I have small bets on TCU and UNLV. You may want to bet against as I have lost the last two years. I don't bet much the first couple of weeks until I have seen the teams play.
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My 2026 college football betting has started in a losing manner. I am now 0-1 as TCU was beaten by NC.
And put money on the game too. 3 leg parlay with a big boost .... hit on 2 legs and guess which leg lost?
Frogs looked poorly coached.
Lots of good offers last few days from my 4 active accounts. Plus a bunch of them are available up to $100, many others $50. Example today is team A at +125, boosted to +163. Other site was -128. Not hard to make $$ at + 163 and -128. With my limit I either make $6 or $12 depending on result. Plus get 140 points on FD. Getting 3 or 4 similar offers a day. Not bad for pushing a few buttons.
Ball State + 50.5 Over/Under 56.5
It is incredibly rare to see a total that is only 6 points off of the spread. Normally, this would be a 100% big bet for me on any random game. I would be on the Over. Not this game because because I believe OSU will being showing very little and playing lots of second, third, and fourth string players in the second half. They play Texas next week and will be keeping a lot of the offense under wraps.
I am not saying to not bet it, it is probably still objectively a positive bet on the Over. I am just not smart enough to pull the trigger. I would guess if I see anymore games where the total is only 6 points over the line that I will be betting them big.
so you get full credit
PS I don't bet a lot though when +EV is not more certain
Quote: odiousgambitI've been keeping an eye out for this sort of thing ever since you mentioned it last year. I think especially the first week or two, it's something close to a fair bet if not +EV when a large spread is close to the total ... a matter of the underdog scoring at all sometimes putting it over. I'm ahead betting it and for me doesn't need to be as close as 6 pts though I don't have an exact rule to go by
so you get full credit
PS I don't bet a lot though when +EV is not more certain
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I agree, 6 points is not a hard rule. Honestly that might be the closest spread that I have ever seen to the total. Anything under 10 is probably a +EV bet and I begin to start looking at them lower than 16.
Quote: DRichThere is a bet today that hits one of my biggest triggers.
Ball State + 50.5 Over/Under 56.5
It is incredibly rare to see a total that is only 6 points off of the spread. Normally, this would be a 100% big bet for me on any random game. I would be on the Over. Not this game because because I believe OSU will being showing very little and playing lots of second, third, and fourth string players in the second half. They play Texas next week and will be keeping a lot of the offense under wraps.
I am not saying to not bet it, it is probably still objectively a positive bet on the Over. I am just not smart enough to pull the trigger. I would guess if I see anymore games where the total is only 6 points over the line that I will be betting them big.
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I guess I need to quit over analyzing and just go with a system that has proved very profitable for me.
Ohio State 56 Ball St 3
Over 56.5 is a winner.
Quote: DRichQuote: DRichThere is a bet today that hits one of my biggest triggers.
Ball State + 50.5 Over/Under 56.5
It is incredibly rare to see a total that is only 6 points off of the spread. Normally, this would be a 100% big bet for me on any random game. I would be on the Over. Not this game because because I believe OSU will being showing very little and playing lots of second, third, and fourth string players in the second half. They play Texas next week and will be keeping a lot of the offense under wraps.
I am not saying to not bet it, it is probably still objectively a positive bet on the Over. I am just not smart enough to pull the trigger. I would guess if I see anymore games where the total is only 6 points over the line that I will be betting them big.
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I guess I need to quit over analyzing and just go with a system that has proved very profitable for me.
Ohio State 56 Ball St 3
Over 56.5 is a winner.
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There's some Caesars locations that offer 7 times rewards credits three days a week. This has left me with a dumb amount of rewards credits to use on your spread v total idea.
Last football season you posted about it so I identified around a half dozen or so games in week 1 that fit those parameters. The following games' totals were all within 10 points of the spread: OU/UTEP, OSU/Ball, Minn/EIU, MU/UAPB, UGA/TNST, VT/VMI, ASU/Morg and BYU/UT. Results: Every. Single. Bet. Won.
Quote: odiousgambitmaybe we gotta quit talking about it ha ha
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Why? If the books change the lines there will be opportunities on the new lines assuming fair markets.
I liked DRich's thing on betting the overs
I wondered if the under would be a good bet if the spread was smallish
I tracked every game from week 1 so far that had a spread of 7.5 or less
I didn't consider the no. on the over
the unders won 11-4
maybe or probably just luck
I will keep tracking
today, still week 1, it would be Lou/Miss - spread 6.5 picking the under of 55__________SMU/FSU spread 2.5 picking the under of 53
I will keep tracking until I'm convinced of whether it's worthwhile or not
the totals seem to me to be very high in college games - most of them are over 50
edit - not worth anything - I went back over 2025 some 60 games and betting the under (total) when the spread was small and there was no edge to be had
https://www.covers.com/sports/ncaaf/matchups
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I'm sticking to the idea it's close to a fair bet and perhaps slightly +EV in the first week of NCAA ball since less is known about the teams. I'm not so sure you can't say that if just betting all the underdogs on the moneyline the first week or so
it's indisputable that it has been fun
tried something new - every game week 1 - I parlayed the favorite with the over and the underdog with the under
I came up with 57 wins (yes I will subtract the loss on the other side) and 35 losses on both sides (there were 2 pushes)
based on $100 bets - the 35 losses on both sides equals a loss ot $7,000
the 57 wins gives a profit of $264.46 minus the $100 lost on the other side that was lost means there was an actual profit of $164.46
the total profit when there was a win on one of the 2 sides was $9,374.22 (57*$164.46)
the net profit was $2,374.22
the total wagered was $9,200
a little over 25% profit
just luck_______?_________maybe - idk - I'm going to go back to 2025 and do week 1 and see what happens
edit -
I did week 1 of the 2025/26 season and got a small win of about 4% with the parlays going 54-42
then I did week 2 which was specatacular - 58-25 - 54% profit
but after all this there is bad news which means I'm done
searching indicates sportsbook reduce the odds and payouts on correlated parlays which is what these parlays are
I didn't think about that when I started doing this - that's the way the ball bounces ___________________-:(
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I liked DRich's thing on betting the overs
I wondered if the under would be a good bet if the spread was smallish
I tracked every game from week 1 so far that had a spread of 7.5 or less
I didn't consider the no. on the over
the unders won 11-4
maybe or probably just luck
I will keep tracking
today, still week 1, it would be Lou/Miss - spread 6.5 picking the under of 55__________SMU/FSU spread 2.5 picking the under of 53
I will keep tracking until I'm convinced of whether it's worthwhile or not
the totals seem to me to be very high in college games - most of them are over 50
edit - not worth anything - I went back over 2025 some 60 games and betting the under (total) when the spread was small and there was no edge to be had
https://www.covers.com/sports/ncaaf/matchups
.
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I don't like that concept at all.
I like Kendrick Raphael over 64.5 yards -114
this is an expert pick from covers.com
this is what the expert posted:
"Raphael is a proven workhorse who handled 266 touches for 1,188 yards and 14 scores a year ago, and SMU doesn't return a single rusher who reached 100 yards a year ago. He should get a ton of work in this contest behind an experienced SMU offensive line (91 career starts) with an advantage over FSU's front (120th in stuff rate)."
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I like Kendrick Raphael over 64.5 yards -114
this is an expert pick from covers.com
this is what the expert posted:
"Raphael is a proven workhorse who handled 266 touches for 1,188 yards and 14 scores a year ago, and SMU doesn't return a single rusher who reached 100 yards a year ago. He should get a ton of work in this contest behind an experienced SMU offensive line (91 career starts) with an advantage over FSU's front (120th in stuff rate)."
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Good post. I won’t be making that bet…
(NY doesn’t allow player prop bets on college athletes).
PSA….. FanDuel giving free $25. Allowing you to get $25 on ‘any point score in Seahawks Patriots game’ at even money. I’d say EV is + $24.9999
above pick won
Enrique Hernandez under 0.5 total hits +101
from covers.com -
"The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hernandez in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Hernandez is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game. Hernandez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 51% of the time when starting against a southpaw this year.. The #10 venue in the majors for suppressing BABIP to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among every team in action today."
I tracked Hernandez - he has hit safely in only one of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 24
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Quote: lilredrooster.
above pick won
Enrique Hernandez under 0.5 total hits +101
from covers.com -
"The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hernandez in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Hernandez is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game. Hernandez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 51% of the time when starting against a southpaw this year.. The #10 venue in the majors for suppressing BABIP to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 2nd-best among every team in action today."
I tracked Hernandez - he has hit safely in only one of his last 5 games and 7 of his last 24
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Just be careful. Some books count the pinch hitter’s hits as if the original player got them!
Yesterday I finally scored big on a middle. Had FSU + 3.5, and SMU -3. Both boosted of course. Was going to make $10 ish no matter what. But ended up casing +$120 while the other bet pushed.
Have Mizzou -5.5 and Kansas +6 same concept this weekend coming up. And Pats +3.5 / Seahawks -3.
My (most likely -EV) prop bet on that game is the Seattle rookie RB over yards. I am a general believer in ‘RBs are interchangeable’ and Super Bowl MVP Walker will be easily replaced.
Quote: lilredrooster.
I liked DRich's thing on betting the overs
I wondered if the under would be a good bet if the spread was smallish
I tracked every game from week 1 so far that had a spread of 7.5 or less
I didn't consider the no. on the over
the unders won 11-4
maybe or probably just luck
I will keep tracking
today, still week 1, it would be Lou/Miss - spread 6.5 picking the under of 55__________SMU/FSU spread 2.5 picking the under of 53
I will keep tracking until I'm convinced of whether it's worthwhile or not
the totals seem to me to be very high in college games - most of them are over 50
edit - not worth anything - I went back over 2025 some 60 games and betting the under (total) when the spread was small and there was no edge to be had
https://www.covers.com/sports/ncaaf/matchups
.
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I see this week Miami -54.5 Total 61.5
Quote: IzzybetsWeek 0 always sneaks up on me too - that Hawaii travel rule is the main reason I track it. Bet small on the opener every year just to shake the rust off. Anyone here taking the HR $5 for $100 bonus bets promo? That's decent value if the rollover is reasonable.
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I don't know what that promo is. Hard Rock no longer gives me any bonusses or promos.
In on it from the beginning, see upthread, and I think you had to be to get full value. I was unsure if you had to keep betting the $5 each week, and the answer is no, I'm getting the full $100 in bonus bets for a 5 buck bet, at 20 per wk. Hard to beat, don't know how anyone said no.Quote: IzzybetsWeek 0 always sneaks up on me too - that Hawaii travel rule is the main reason I track it. Bet small on the opener every year just to shake the rust off. Anyone here taking the HR $5 for $100 bonus bets promo?
Not sure what you mean by rollover, but you bet the 20 bucks in full each time, on anything at any odds.Quote:That's decent value if the rollover is reasonable.
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pick on Hernandez won
Rashid Shaheed over 30.5 receiving yards -115
from covers.com
"Shaheed is a threat to top this total with one catch, especially since he’s excellent versus man-to-man coverage, something the Patriots run at a high rate. What’s more, WR1 Jaxson-Smith Njigba draws added attention from the Pats secondary (that’s hoping CB Christian Gonzalez does sit out), leaving Shaheed in single coverage. Shaheed, who arrived at the 2025 trade deadline, is expected to have a bigger role and projections range from 37 to as many as 46 yards in Week 1."
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Quote: IzzybetsWhat's your read on the Pats secondary outside that Shaheed matchup?
the Pats secondary is very tough
I'm no expert
I just check some of the picks I like against stats I can find from searching
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Quote: Izzybets
Referral codes are unauthorized adverising.
Quote: Izzybetsthe early totals look soft to me.
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What do you really mean by this? That the books have put out ‘bad’ lines that a smart guy like you can exploit? Give us your lACTUAL examples of which lines you think are ‘soft’!
Quote: IzzybetsStats over vibes is the only way to bet NFL props - respect. That Shaheed 30.5 is my favorite card this week: they drew him on 3 deep crossers last Thursday and one of those clears it alone. I lean unders on the Pats total too, their red zone offense still looks stuck in the preseason version. What's your weekend card looking like - anything besides the Shaheed prop?
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I’ll answer. But I in no way believe I will beat the built in vig over time on these prop bets. I do believe I will easily win over time using bonuses/profit boosts/free bets and such. Just very little $$ because I’m usually limited on them to small $ amounts.
Last night hit on the ‘free’ $25 from FD for ‘any score’
JSN or Brown TD boosted to +100
Brown over 4.5 yards first quarter.
None of those were ‘researched’ by me, rather, they were ‘offered’ as ‘specials’.
All the sites offered ‘live profit boosts’. I used them all on the under after watching the first two drives. No illusion that I’m right more often than not on those type bets, but with the boosts all were + odds. And in this case, I was right!
pick on Shaheed lost
Ryan Feltner under 4.5 strikeouts - 123
"Facing a disciplined New York Yankees lineup that excels at working deep counts and drawing walks, it will be tough for him to cross this 5-strikeout threshold."
I tracked Feltner and he has been under that total in 15 out of his last 21 games
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Also, DK having a boatload of free games. Won $2, then $4. Just for pushing a few buttons.
Quote: lilredrooster.
pick on Shaheed lost
Ryan Feltner under 4.5 strikeouts - 123
"Facing a disciplined New York Yankees lineup that excels at working deep counts and drawing walks, it will be tough for him to cross this 5-strikeout threshold."
I tracked Feltner and he has been under that total in 15 out of his last 21 games
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Are you talking about the Feltner who has at least 5 strikeouts in each of his last 3 games?
