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billryan
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September 18th, 2026 at 9:29:33 AM permalink
I was out with two OSU fans last night. One thinks they'll play like wild dogs and expects at least two touchdowns. The other one thinks the team bought into its own hype and doesn't belong in the Top Eight.
OSU made Manning and Texas look bad for three quarters but then they themselves looked horrible in the final stretch.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
odiousgambit
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September 18th, 2026 at 1:13:28 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I found a tout on the web who offers some free picks
I don't wanna do the hard work to find good picks anymore
of course I won't pay for picks or recommend that anyone else does that
this tout got very positive reviews
their claim is that they win about 55% of picks ats (including free picks) which seems a reasonable, not a bragging type of claim

yet it is meaningless by itself

what am I talking about? 55% and all you picked were favorites, a player would lose money. So my point is, 55% and all nice paying underdogs? I'd pay for that! Normal against the spread bets? not paying... but I'm not going to check it out either

Quote:

here are some of their free picks for week 3:


Texas Tech -7.5 over Houston

Clemson -3.5 over UNC

Kent State +52.5 over Ohio State

New Mexico + 22.5 over Oklahoma

Iowa State -23.5 over Bowling Green

North Texas + 3 over Texas State

Ole Miss + 3 over LSU

Sacramento +27.5 over N. Dakota State

those are all probably -110 or so . Not checking it out, but thanks for sharing

.
link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
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September 19th, 2026 at 4:47:18 AM permalink
.
story about how DraftKings uses AI to target gamblers most likely to lose
unfortunately the story is behind a paywall
maybe some at Wov subscribe to NYT and can see the whole story
a short sentence from the link:

“It is as predatory as it sounds,” said a former DraftKings analyst who, like many interviewed for this article, requested anonymity because he feared retribution. “If you lose more, we give you more, so you keep playing more.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/19/business/draftkings-ai.html

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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September 19th, 2026 at 5:01:01 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
story about how DraftKings uses AI to target gamblers most likely to lose
unfortunately the story is behind a paywall
maybe some at Wov subscribe to NYT and can see the whole story
a short sentence from the link:

“It is as predatory as it sounds,” said a former DraftKings analyst who, like many interviewed for this article, requested anonymity because he feared retribution. “If you lose more, we give you more, so you keep playing more.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/19/business/draftkings-ai.html

.
link to original post



My wife spends WAY too much on shoes. Is it ‘predatory’ for Jimmy Choo to send her a small gift after her $1000+ shoe purchase?
Is it predatory when my (way overpriced) steakhouse sends me a $25 gift certificate which will essentially just pay for my first drink?

DraftKings provides a product. They identify their best customers. By definition, just like Jimmy Choo and my steakhouse, the best customers are the ones they will make the most money from. So DraftKings will reward its best customers with a gift of some kind. (I have a free DK shirt, and socks too).

By the way, thanks again lilRed. I used another profit boost last night on the Oregon/over. 84-0!
lilredrooster
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September 19th, 2026 at 5:22:25 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

By the way, thanks again lilRed. I used another profit boost last night on the Oregon/over. 84-0!


I believe your thank you should go to DRich - not me - I made no comment about that game

Quote: DRich

Oregon -57.5 this week. I am not betting it.



Quote: SOOPOO


My wife spends WAY too much on shoes. Is it ‘predatory’ for Jimmy Choo to send her a small gift after her $1000+ shoe purchase?
Is it predatory when my (way overpriced) steakhouse sends me a $25 gift certificate which will essentially just pay for my first drink?


I don't believe your analogy is an especially good one
I believe the risk of addiction is much greater from gambling then from buying shoes or eating at a steakhouse
the NYT generally does not post frivolous stories and I don't believe this one is frivolous either

this is a gambling forum
there is an obvious bias here to think that gambling is a fun thing or a potentially profitable thing
that's not the whole story by any means

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 19, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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September 19th, 2026 at 7:03:15 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

By the way, thanks again lilRed. I used another profit boost last night on the Oregon/over. 84-0!


I believe your thank you should go to DRich - not me - I made no comment about that game

Quote: DRich

Oregon -57.5 this week. I am not betting it.



Quote: SOOPOO


My wife spends WAY too much on shoes. Is it ‘predatory’ for Jimmy Choo to send her a small gift after her $1000+ shoe purchase?
Is it predatory when my (way overpriced) steakhouse sends me a $25 gift certificate which will essentially just pay for my first drink?


I don't believe your analogy is an especially good one
I believe the risk of addiction is much greater from gambling then from buying shoes or eating at a steakhouse
the NYT generally does not post frivolous stories and I don't believe this one is frivolous either

this is a gambling forum
there is an obvious bias here to think that gambling is a fun thing or a potentially profitable thing
that's not the whole story by any means

.
link to original post



You are of course correct. But so am I. I don’t think there is anything wrong with rewarding your best customers. It’s done by every (smart) business. It’s not up to ANY business to make sure you are not overspending your budget. You don’t think Nike doesn’t target inner city kids who haven’t a (legal) penny to their name to buy $300 sneakers? How about GOVERNMENT lottery ads? I can go on and on….
DRich
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September 19th, 2026 at 9:41:42 AM permalink
California is favored by 58.5 today. I keep saying this but I think this is the biggest spread that I remember seeing. The Total is 65.5.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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September 19th, 2026 at 9:52:03 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
story about how DraftKings uses AI to target gamblers most likely to lose
unfortunately the story is behind a paywall
maybe some at Wov subscribe to NYT and can see the whole story
a short sentence from the link:

“It is as predatory as it sounds,” said a former DraftKings analyst who, like many interviewed for this article, requested anonymity because he feared retribution. “If you lose more, we give you more, so you keep playing more.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/19/business/draftkings-ai.html

.
link to original post



My wife spends WAY too much on shoes. Is it ‘predatory’ for Jimmy Choo to send her a small gift after her $1000+ shoe purchase?
Is it predatory when my (way overpriced) steakhouse sends me a $25 gift certificate which will essentially just pay for my first drink?

DraftKings provides a product. They identify their best customers. By definition, just like Jimmy Choo and my steakhouse, the best customers are the ones they will make the most money from. So DraftKings will reward its best customers with a gift of some kind. (I have a free DK shirt, and socks too).

By the way, thanks again lilRed. I used another profit boost last night on the Oregon/over. 84-0!
link to original post



Are they sending offers based on a person's bet levels, which seems normal, or are they only targeting people who lose a lot? It's certainly not illegal, and any ethical discussion should include the entire industry.
Casinos are not your friends. They want your money every bit as much as you want theirs. They just have more ways to win.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DRich
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September 19th, 2026 at 9:55:09 AM permalink
Quote: billryan


Are they sending offers based on a person's bet levels, which seems normal, or are they only targeting people who lose a lot? It's certainly not illegal, and any ethical discussion should include the entire industry.
Casinos are not your friends. They want your money every bit as much as you want theirs. They just have more ways to win.
link to original post



I only have HardRock for an option in Florida. Sadly, I lost a lot last year and they still aren't sending me offers.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
odiousgambit
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September 19th, 2026 at 10:50:37 AM permalink
All gambling outfits deserve scrutiny for their practices, lives are at stake

I guy I was in business with once told me about this in general, went something like this:

Take notice of how much you are paying and how you are treated ... or when you're not sure if you are getting a good price, how you are treated. If you get surly service, that can be hard to take, but it means you paid for 'just the basics'. It it is something you need, that usually is good. If they are falling all over themselves with kindness and courtesy while delivering the product, now it's time to worry. This is telling you they love having your business, and likely you are paying top dollar. Do you need to shop around?

My point is, this phenomenon of treating your best customers well is not restricted to the business of gambling. Reporting on that though is irresistible. And I did say that business deserves the scrutiny.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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September 19th, 2026 at 10:53:42 AM permalink
Another thing to remember is that the politicians spreading all this new gambling don't get the scrutiny. These various gambling outfits though, they better keep their noses clean or good ol' NYT will have their ass
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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September 19th, 2026 at 10:59:20 AM permalink
Quote: DRich


I only have HardRock for an option in Florida. Sadly, I lost a lot last year and they still aren't sending me offers.
link to original post

You don't miss a chance to mention that .

I keep commenting on it too. Ha.

My new theory is that you were betting big bucks and experts determined that your 'theo' was easily +EV even though you lost money.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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September 19th, 2026 at 11:01:21 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

California is favored by 58.5 today. I keep saying this but I think this is the biggest spread that I remember seeing. The Total is 65.5.
link to original post

and they noticed this +EV gambling pattern!!!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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September 19th, 2026 at 11:21:06 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: DRich


I only have HardRock for an option in Florida. Sadly, I lost a lot last year and they still aren't sending me offers.
link to original post

You don't miss a chance to mention that .

I keep commenting on it too. Ha.

My new theory is that you were betting big bucks and experts determined that your 'theo' was easily +EV even though you lost money.
link to original post



Yes, I keep mentioning it because I am jealous that others are getting good offers that I am not.

I probably make bigger bets than most people and I would like to believe that I make +EV bets, but I am doubting myself these last two years.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
DRich
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September 19th, 2026 at 11:41:47 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

California is favored by 58.5 today. I keep saying this but I think this is the biggest spread that I remember seeing. The Total is 65.5.
link to original post



Cal is playing Wagner.

Cal has over 46,000 students and Wagner around 1,900. Over 400 High Schools have more students than Wagner.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
billryan
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September 19th, 2026 at 11:42:00 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan


Are they sending offers based on a person's bet levels, which seems normal, or are they only targeting people who lose a lot? It's certainly not illegal, and any ethical discussion should include the entire industry.
Casinos are not your friends. They want your money every bit as much as you want theirs. They just have more ways to win.
link to original post



I only have HardRock for an option in Florida. Sadly, I lost a lot last year and they still aren't sending me offers.
link to original post



Rule of Acquisition 445- Eliminate the competition, and you can eliminate your customer service.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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September 19th, 2026 at 12:59:40 PM permalink
Interesting finish to the Ohio St. game. Up 59-0, Kent St. returned an interception inside the ten, and on first down, they got to the three.
Now OSU is favored by 52 1/2, so many folks are wanting a touchdown. It turns out, according to Gemini, the over/under is 59 1/2, so any score sets off the Over.
On 4th and goal, they went for the field goal to avoid being shut out. Final score 59-3. OSU covered the spread, and the Over won.
The linemakers are pretty good.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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September 19th, 2026 at 1:30:58 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Interesting finish to the Ohio St. game. Up 59-0, Kent St. returned an interception inside the ten, and on first down, they got to the three.
Now OSU is favored by 52 1/2, so many folks are wanting a touchdown. It turns out, according to Gemini, the over/under is 59 1/2, so any score sets off the Over.
On 4th and goal, they went for the field goal to avoid being shut out. Final score 59-3. OSU covered the spread, and the Over won.
The linemakers are pretty good.
link to original post



Cha Ching. My DRich (not lilRed) inspired OSU/Over bet boosted to +180 hit due to that FG. These are tough bets to make. OSU was up 42-0 very early in the second half…. But then put in their second teamers and only score 17 points from then on. So I got lucky with that FG.
I’m presently 3 for 3 on these type bets. Heck, I may even buy DRich a Starbucks.

Free bets you want longshots. I like starting QB Cooper Rush to score a TD at 22-1. He’s a third stringer on a bad team and I think he’d run through a brick wall to try and keep his NFL career alive. He may not be a great runner, but I like 22-1.
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Sep 19, 2026
DRich
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September 19th, 2026 at 2:09:02 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


I’m presently 3 for 3 on these type bets. Heck, I may even buy DRich a Starbucks.



No need, we can just take one off of my debt. I believe I owed you two or three.

I have Cal over 65.5 using the same logic. Currently 39-7 in second quarter.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
odiousgambit
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September 20th, 2026 at 7:46:03 AM permalink
I picked several overs based on the spread approaching the amount of the over/under.

Listing only one team, details at bet time lost, my picks and results:

Arizona . ........ W 0.9 units
Tulsa .............L one unit............ opponent did not score!
Washington .... W 0.9 units
Iowa ..................W 0.92 units ............opp. didn't score but still a W
Calif..................L one unit .......................... somebody jinxed this one at half time, won't mention name
Penn State ........ W 0.9 units

Net win 1.62 units

I already said I don't bet much, and I bet even less than last time as it's week 2 and more is known... just not crystal clear that it's +EV
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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September 20th, 2026 at 8:45:09 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I
Calif..................L one unit .......................... somebody jinxed this one at half time, won't mention name



We need to mention his name. He jinxed us.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
SOOPOO
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September 20th, 2026 at 9:18:16 AM permalink
SOOPOO loves Jones over 8.5 rushing yards. I think pre injury this would be o/u 18 or so. I think on SNF he’s going to want to show out. I even took +++ odds on him rushing for 25 in a longshot parlay.
SOOPOO
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September 21st, 2026 at 6:20:36 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO loves Jones over 8.5 rushing yards. I think pre injury this would be o/u 18 or so. I think on SNF he’s going to want to show out. I even took +++ odds on him rushing for 25 in a longshot parlay.
link to original post



I got LUCKY. He made the over but needed OT to do it. Same for a different bet including Mahomes over rushing yards.

Today using boosts have Dart over 31.5 yards rushing on site A, and under 33.5 on site B. Either win $2, $8, or $65.

Still alive in survivor pool. Raiders first week, 49ers yesterday. I’ll bet over 1/2 have been eliminated after the few big upsets yesterday.
gordonm888
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September 21st, 2026 at 7:11:50 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Still alive in survivor pool. Raiders first week, 49ers yesterday. I’ll bet over 1/2 have been eliminated after the few big upsets yesterday.
link to original post



Me too, still alive in ESPN Survivor contest. I also took Raiders week one and 49ers yesterday. 62.52% of entries are already eliminated.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
billryan
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September 21st, 2026 at 9:03:09 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: DRich

California is favored by 58.5 today. I keep saying this but I think this is the biggest spread that I remember seeing. The Total is 65.5.
link to original post



Cal is playing Wagner.

Cal has over 46,000 students and Wagner around 1,900. Over 400 High Schools have more students than Wagner.
link to original post




When I was in school, Wagner fielded a mediocre Division 111 team. A few years later, they lost in the D3 finals. I can't believe they moved the program up to D1. They had a decent basketball team, but football was a step above club level. Not bad, for a lil school from Staten Island.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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September 21st, 2026 at 11:05:28 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: SOOPOO


Still alive in survivor pool. Raiders first week, 49ers yesterday. I’ll bet over 1/2 have been eliminated after the few big upsets yesterday.
link to original post



Me too, still alive in ESPN Survivor contest. I also took Raiders week one and 49ers yesterday. 62.52% of entries are already eliminated.
link to original post



Just checked. The one I’m in has 67.5% eliminated. I’m taking the Chiefs over Dolphins. Without actually looking ahead to see if it’s feasible, my plan is to go against the Falcons and Dolphins each week if possible. At least until the Falcons start an NFL QB.

It wasn’t Daniel Jones’ fault, per se, but apparently he is now 1 - 16!!!!! on prime time games!!!!!
SOOPOO
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September 21st, 2026 at 3:34:26 PM permalink
Just got a DK profit boost to use on NHL futures bet. In abject boredom, I write down each teams odds to make/miss the playoffs. Go to site two…. And I find THREE lines for guaranteed money WITHOUT using the profit boost. I use the profit boost for first bet, then take the other side on site 2.
This doesn’t take long. Make the second small similar bet to make a few $$ payable next April. Went to do the 3rd bet and odds had already changed A LOT! This is a Stanley Cup playoff futures bet being made midday in September! Odds went from -550 to -700! So no third bet.

I’m wondering how much money ‘someone’ was able to get down on the +600/-550 that was originally available? It’s barely worth doing due to comparing it to just putting it in some interest bearing vehicle…. but I like it anyway…
SOOPOO
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September 21st, 2026 at 5:32:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

SOOPOO loves Jones over 8.5 rushing yards. I think pre injury this would be o/u 18 or so. I think on SNF he’s going to want to show out. I even took +++ odds on him rushing for 25 in a longshot parlay.
link to original post



I got LUCKY. He made the over but needed OT to do it. Same for a different bet including Mahomes over rushing yards.

Today using boosts have Dart over 31.5 yards rushing on site A, and under 33.5 on site B. Either win $2, $8, or $65.

Still alive in survivor pool. Raiders first week, 49ers yesterday. I’ll bet over 1/2 have been eliminated after the few big upsets yesterday.
link to original post



Yowza. Looks like Dart may be done. Knee was sideways in first quarter. I'm ‘think’ I get my money back on FanDuel for my over bet. I ‘think’ I’ll win my under bet on DraftKings. QB’s going down in droves. Darnold. Williams. Daniels. Dart. Tagovailoa (sort of).
odiousgambit
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September 22nd, 2026 at 3:29:52 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

QB’s going down in droves. Darnold. Williams. Daniels. Dart. Tagovailoa (sort of).
link to original post


I often complain they do too much to protect QBs these days ... yet look at this. I'm not smart enough to figure out what to do to fix this and not make a rule that you can't hit the QB at all period. A shame too as I think the Giants season had hopes. Gotta have the 'just as good' back up QB I guess.

As for NHL futures at DK, my version only has 'bet on who wins the cup' ... other sites have 'yes or no' for making the playoffs, but not my DK
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2026 at 3:54:48 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

QB’s going down in droves. Darnold. Williams. Daniels. Dart. Tagovailoa (sort of).
link to original post


I often complain they do too much to protect QBs these days ... yet look at this. I'm not smart enough to figure out what to do to fix this and not make a rule that you can't hit the QB at all period. A shame too as I think the Giants season had hopes. Gotta have the 'just as good' back up QB I guess.

As for NHL futures at DK, my version only has 'bet on who wins the cup' ... other sites have 'yes or no' for making the playoffs, but not my DK
link to original post



The make/Miss wasn’t easy to find. But it’s there. I think you got to find ‘team futures’ as opposed to Stanley Cup.
The G’s may have lost their best D player as well. And Winston showed he is no longer even a capable NFL backup. Nabers got dinged up too. Got my full bet back on the Dart /over bet.
odiousgambit
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September 22nd, 2026 at 4:28:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


The make/Miss wasn’t easy to find. But it’s there. I think you got to find ‘team futures’ as opposed to Stanley Cup.
Nabers got dinged up too. Got my full bet back on the Dart /over bet.
link to original post

Just not there or I'm a monkey's uncle.
I'll try again and come back 'going ape' about it if it is so that would fit
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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September 22nd, 2026 at 4:49:29 AM permalink
I'll be a son of a B^&%!^%$ !!!

I swear it was not there before, now it is easy to find ... even checked this morning early

here I am
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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September 22nd, 2026 at 5:28:37 AM permalink
edit: yes was able to take advantage but a restriction at DK of bet having to pay better than -111 was dissatisfactory , made too few choices

well I'm having fun finding videos

Last edited by: odiousgambit on Sep 22, 2026
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2026 at 7:00:13 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

edit: yes was able to take advantage but a restriction at DK of bet having to pay better than -111 was dissatisfactory , made too few choices

well I'm having fun finding videos


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? You want the + odds bet to use the profit boost. I gave the easy example. Was+600 there, added the profit boost to get to +750, arbitraged with the -550 elsewhere. Pick up ‘points’ on both sites. The -550 bet also just looks like a dumb fan, the kind of bettor who doesn’t get cut off.

Have another o/u free money. Love over 226.5 on site A, under 229.5 on site B. So make a few dollars no matter what, and $60 or so if exactly 227-229. My AI assistant tells me that will only happen around 2.2% of the time! Once again, the non boosted second site bet just looks like a random dumb bettor.

Not sure if I already posted this…. DK had free pool on some ‘Corgi’ races/competition. I of course don’t know the names or for that matter anything about the specific dogs involved. So had my AI assistant make the picks. I won $4. Woo hoo.
odiousgambit
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September 22nd, 2026 at 9:04:45 AM permalink
Tried that and didn't work right

+600 with -550 ain't to be found now in the first place. Don't even need a boostt if you find that!

Only one $10 boost to be used in my case . I'm happy
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2026 at 10:10:43 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Tried that and didn't work right

+600 with -550 ain't to be found now in the first place. Don't even need a boostt if you find that!

Only one $10 boost to be used in my case . I'm happy
link to original post



When I looked, just comparing DK with one other site, that wasn’t even the best opportunity I found. As I wrote earlier, there were three non boosted arbitrage opportunities. Last year I found a good one as well. I’ll find the exact bets and edit them in here.

Fla to make playoffs -520. 160 pays 191 (wins 31). FD
Fla to miss playoffs +650 (boosted to +813). 20 pays 183

So 180 either pays 191 (MOST likely) or 183 (least likely)
As I always say, for me, I just love that I can beat them, even if it’s miniscule dollars.
SOOPOO
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RogerKintfindingEV
September 22nd, 2026 at 1:34:41 PM permalink
Falcons get a real QB back from injury. Last two I bet on hit the over in their rush yards. Penix started 9 games last year, rushing for at least 6 yards in 6 of those 9 games. I have him at over 3.5 yards. I think numbers that low just require a decent athlete to escape the pocket successfully once. Remember, sack yards do not count as a negative. I think the ‘he’ll be afraid to run post injury’ is more a myth than a fact.
gordonm888
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September 22nd, 2026 at 4:56:14 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Falcons get a real QB back from injury. Last two I bet on hit the over in their rush yards. Penix started 9 games last year, rushing for at least 6 yards in 6 of those 9 games. I have him at over 3.5 yards. I think numbers that low just require a decent athlete to escape the pocket successfully once. Remember, sack yards do not count as a negative. I think the ‘he’ll be afraid to run post injury’ is more a myth than a fact.
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Its getting wilder. Jackson Dart may be out for the season with worse-than-realized knee injury.

And Tyson Bagent may be in concussion protocol. Are the Bears down to their 3rd string QB? And whozat?

Penix and Murray returning. Mariota will continue to substitute for an injured Daniels. Drew Locke rolling as substitute for Darnold. Will it be Watson or Shadeur Sanders at Cleveland? And is Aaron Rodgers done, just suddenly too old?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
lilredrooster
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September 23rd, 2026 at 4:32:30 AM permalink
.
another story about the negativity that's out there with the big push to entice people to gamble on sports

from the link:

"Hoekstra, a Florida attorney whose firm was involved in an earlier win in court against Meta, recently filed a series of 15 lawsuits against the two biggest sports gambling apps in the country, FanDuel and DraftKings. The cases follow a similar legal theory: that gambling apps were designed to addict.

One UCLA study published earlier this year found that in states that legalized sports gambling online, bankruptcies and credit card delinquencies increased about 25%. A survey by the National Council on Problem Gambling found 8% of American adults, almost 20 million people, reported experiencing at least one indicator of problematic gambling behavior "many times" in the past year.

For recovering gambling addicts like Ruggiero, claims that the technology is designed to addict them ring true. "That thing is engineered to keep you going," he said."


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sports-betting-apps-gambling/


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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September 23rd, 2026 at 5:14:19 AM permalink
You do seem to return to this frequently

Do you feel that the group needs a Cassandra?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
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September 23rd, 2026 at 5:35:33 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You do seem to return to this frequently
Do you feel that the group needs a Cassandra?


no, for me it's a quite interesting story and take on sports betting
it's only the 2nd news story I've posted on the subject
it's very different from what appears in this thread which is what makes it so interesting to me
but I'm done with this issue now
everybody (including me) can get back to the main business of posting about hot picks and hot bonuses
while I do enjoy aspects of sports betting I also feel a lot of sympathy for those who have been hurt by its' big push
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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September 23rd, 2026 at 6:04:29 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster


no, for me it's a quite interesting story and take on sports betting
it's only the 2nd news story I've posted on the subject


I don't want to go back and search your posts, maybe this is correct about 'news stories' but you definitely have posted plenty along this line. This last one involves a lawyer who clearly is rubbing is hands anticipating his windfall going after these sites, forgive me for suspecting. And "designed to addict" ... really? that is the oldest news in the universe when it comes to gambling houses.
Quote:

it's very different from what appears in this thread

yep we noticed you picked this thread
Quote:

which is what makes it so interesting to me
but I'm done with this issue now

no you're not...
Quote:

everybody (including me) can get back to the main business of posting about hot picks and hot bonuses

... which this statement shows.
Quote:

while I do enjoy aspects of sports betting I also feel a lot of sympathy for those who have been hurt by its' big push

overall, for society, I agree here. I don't think online gambling of any kind was a good idea. The politicians love it. I don't feel like a hypocrite, though, since I have vowed to not be a ploppy and have instead bet maybe a total of $100 on bets that were clearly -EV since joining up. All else was +EV to the best of my ability to bet it correctly. I don't see how ceasing to go after the offers would help the ones who have a problem.
Why not start a thread about problem sports gambling and not bother this thread? This post shows you don't even seem to believe the picks and bonuses are even true, and might believe we are all heading for addiction and a great downfall.
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link to original post
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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September 23rd, 2026 at 6:07:41 AM permalink
I thought soopoo was a little tough on you a bit upthread but now I too wanted to get this off my chest
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
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September 23rd, 2026 at 6:14:54 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit


This post shows you don't even seem to believe the picks and bonuses are even true, and might believe we are all heading for addiction and a great downfall.


that's totally, totally false - I never posted anything even remotely like that
to the best of my knowledge everyone in this thread gambles responsibly
that doesn't mean we can't consider others who aren't able to
I would surmise that the no. of posts re this subject on this forum are less than one one thousandth of one percent
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 23, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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September 23rd, 2026 at 7:40:56 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: odiousgambit


This post shows you don't even seem to believe the picks and bonuses are even true, and might believe we are all heading for addiction and a great downfall.


that's totally, totally false - I never posted anything even remotely like that
to the best of my knowledge everyone in this thread gambles responsibly
that doesn't mean we can't consider others who aren't able to
I would surmise that the no. of posts re this subject on this forum are less than one one thousandth of one percent
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link to original post



I of course agree with you that overall online sports betting, and online casinos, are ‘bad’ for society. But there is NO DOUBT it has been good for me. I get tons of enjoyment from it.
Cigar bars
Alcohol
AYCE buffets
Gun ownership
Cigarettes
All are ‘bad’ for society but I don’t want them banned.

Individual responsibility.

But lilRed, this IS a math based gambling forum! OF COURSE those attracted here will be outside the norm.

Getting back to gambling chat…. The Titans are not going to be a good team this year. But they were close to beating the Eagles last week. The Giants will be using a washed up Winston as QB. And who knows about Nabers? And best DL is out. And what was that benching Skattebo during crucial goal line plays? I got Titans +3 at + (very slightly) odds.
As a reminder, I hit these type bets around 49% of the time…

I’ve watched baseball a lot this year. Unaware that Carlos Rodon might tie ALL TIME record for consecutive starts not allowing 4 runs if he does so next start.
And Pete Alonso will become ONLY player in MLB to ever lead both leagues in RBI’s. And first player ever to hit 40 HRs first season with two different teams.

Cy Young pitched 44 complete games one season. Of the 5184 starting pitcher games this year in MLB there were a total of 20 complete games pitched.
lilredrooster
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September 23rd, 2026 at 10:13:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


But lilRed, this IS a math based gambling forum! OF COURSE those attracted here will be outside the norm.


puh-leeze
making a $10 bet because you get a $10 bonus if you lose doesn't require any high level math skills to realize that it is + EV
the Wizard and a few others here (very few) have high level math skills
math skills will help you only in a very few gambling games
they will do nothing for you in craps or roulette and in games they will do something for you the formulas and techniques are so complicated (except for card counting at blackjack) that most bettors here and elsewhere will not be willing to do the hard work to realize a profit
the posters here are not as you claim "outside the norm"
they are with a few exceptions (very few) ordinary gamblers


you don't want many things to be banned
what about restrictions?
prostitution is legal only in Nevada
should it be legal all over the country?
if a person's daughter is tempted because of the big bucks and she gets whacked by some crazy john that's her fault - right?
personal responsibility - right?

.

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 23, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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September 23rd, 2026 at 10:56:36 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO


But lilRed, this IS a math based gambling forum! OF COURSE those attracted here will be outside the norm.


puh-leeze
making a $10 bet because you get a $10 bonus if you lose doesn't require any high level math skills to realize that it is + EV

yet sites offer this one because, I'm guessing, 95+ % don't do it right, not knowing the math.

Puh-leeze? I'm thinking you imagine me getting up on the wrong side of the bed today, but maybe you need to look in a mirror. Going to this thread and slamming us with that kind of article? Let's look at that, seems like Carrie Nation busting into the bar 'where all those guys are drinking!! Scandal!!'


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link to original post

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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September 23rd, 2026 at 11:01:30 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO


But lilRed, this IS a math based gambling forum! OF COURSE those attracted here will be outside the norm.


puh-leeze
making a $10 bet because you get a $10 bonus if you lose doesn't require any high level math skills to realize that it is + EV
the Wizard and a few others here (very few) have high level math skills
math skills will help you only in a very few gambling games
they will do nothing for you in craps or roulette and in games they will do something for you the formulas and techniques are so complicated (except for card counting at blackjack) that most bettors here and elsewhere will not be willing to do the hard work to realize a profit
the posters here are not as you claim "outside the norm"
they are with a few exceptions (very few) ordinary gamblers


you don't want many things to be banned
what about restrictions?
prostitution is legal only in Nevada
should it be legal all over the country?
if a person's daughter is tempted because of the big bucks and she gets whacked by some crazy john that's her fault - right?
personal responsibility - right?

.

.
link to original post



Life has risks. I absolutely think prostitution should be legal. Legalizing it would decrease the chance that woman or man gets ‘whacked by a crazy John’.

Individual responsibility.

MMA.
Pro football
Undercover cop

Known HIGH risks to your health.

What job has the HIGHEST risk? Easy answer. POTUS. Around 10% chance of being offed. Should we ban people from being President?
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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September 23rd, 2026 at 11:13:21 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


And Pete Alonso will become ONLY player in MLB to ever lead both leagues in RBI’s. And first player ever to hit 40 HRs first season with two different teams.

Cy Young pitched 44 complete games one season. Of the 5184 starting pitcher games this year in MLB there were a total of 20 complete games pitched.
link to original post



I would have thought that Frank Robinson had led both leagues in RBIs. But he never led the NL in RBI despite 136 RBI in 1962 and 124 and 125 RBIs in 1961 and 1959.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
lilredrooster
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September 23rd, 2026 at 11:36:44 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Going to this thread and slamming us with that kind of article?


you seem to take it personally
it was an article about sports betting from CBS - a generally respected news outlet
was I suppose to worry that you might be offended by the article - ?
how could I predict that - ?

and remember when you posted this - ?

Quote: odiousgambit

Reporting on that though is irresistible. And I did say that business deserves the scrutiny.


and this - ?

Quote: odiousgambit

Another thing to remember is that the politicians spreading all this new gambling don't get the scrutiny. These various gambling outfits though, they better keep their noses clean or good ol' NYT will have their ass

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
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