Sports betting chatter
August 14th, 2026 at 9:09:03 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
Nationals v. Mets over 8.5 runs - -115
the 2 teams average about 9.5 runs
the Mets starter is very weak
Let’s dig deeper. Nats gave up their #1 slugger that helped them get to their high run scored total. Their #2 slugger is out injured. Their pitcher has been great of late. Only 6 runs last 3 starts.
The ‘weak’ Mets pitcher had a great first start. Giving up only one run. He got torched in his second start and was left in (inexplicably?) to give up a boatload of runs. I’m not saying he’s good, but his stats will be skewed bad for quite a while after the single 8 runs in 3 innings start.
you made some great points
I think this pick was not a good one - my bad
I should have dug deeper
kinna strange that the line was skewed so that the worse deal came on the over though
I thought about withdrawing the pick (is that allowed -?) - but I'll let it stand and hope to get lucky
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Couldn't you make a reverse bet and only lose the vig?
BTW- The Mets moved half their starters, so past performance goes out the window.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
August 15th, 2026 at 5:21:34 AM
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Red Sox -126 over Pirates
positives and negatives for both teams
The Red Sox are starting Gray, who has allowed two earned runs in his last 12.0 innings, while Jones has allowed 14 earned runs in his last 13.0 innings
Red Sox are in the hunt for a playoff spot - Pirates don't have much chance
Red Sox have a better record including a better away record than the Pirates home record
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Red Sox -126 over Pirates
positives and negatives for both teams
The Red Sox are starting Gray, who has allowed two earned runs in his last 12.0 innings, while Jones has allowed 14 earned runs in his last 13.0 innings
Red Sox are in the hunt for a playoff spot - Pirates don't have much chance
Red Sox have a better record including a better away record than the Pirates home record
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 15th, 2026 at 5:54:10 AM
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so now I gotta wait till Soopoo weighs in LOL?
I notice in your evaluations you tend to agree with the 'fave' evaluation without much comment on the nature of the odds , in other words you get paid less than even money which may make it only a fair bet at best, and of course the site wants it to be less than fair .... I'd like to hear 'they are paying too much for a win here'
but I'll go for it again. Believe me I'm not betting much, it's just for fun. Thanks for doing the work.
I notice in your evaluations you tend to agree with the 'fave' evaluation without much comment on the nature of the odds , in other words you get paid less than even money which may make it only a fair bet at best, and of course the site wants it to be less than fair .... I'd like to hear 'they are paying too much for a win here'
but I'll go for it again. Believe me I'm not betting much, it's just for fun. Thanks for doing the work.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 15th, 2026 at 5:59:37 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitso now I gotta wait till Soopoo weighs in LOL?
I notice in your evaluations you tend to agree with the 'fave' evaluation without much comment on the nature of the odds , in other words you get paid less than even money which may make it only a fair bet at best, and of course the site wants it to be less than fair .... I'd like to hear 'they are paying too much for a win here'
but I'll go for it again. Believe me I'm not betting much, it's just for fun. Thanks for doing the work.
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I can't really say what fair odds would be
I won't pick a fave who is really beat down such as -175 - in that situation I will look at the run line to see if I want to make a pick
the Red Sox do have some of their sluggers sidelined with injuries - the Pirates have one slugger injured
I look for something extreme - the pitching matchup seems extreme - much in favor of the Red Sox
after yestersday's poor pick I'm trying to look at more details
I also look at the consensus on covers.com - which in this case is 69% (at this moment) for the Red Sox - very strong consensus - more than twice as many picked the Red Sox - I value the public's opinion
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 15, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 15th, 2026 at 8:56:54 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitso now I gotta wait till Soopoo weighs in LOL?
I notice in your evaluations you tend to agree with the 'fave' evaluation without much comment on the nature of the odds , in other words you get paid less than even money which may make it only a fair bet at best, and of course the site wants it to be less than fair .... I'd like to hear 'they are paying too much for a win here'
but I'll go for it again. Believe me I'm not betting much, it's just for fun. Thanks for doing the work.
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I like the Red Sox also. But my best bet is the Cubs. The opposing pitcher has been POUNDED by the Cubs this year. I’ve parlayed McGeevey under K’s, and hits from 5 cubbies, Cubs ML, and also Cubs pitcher under K’s as well. I got 12 profit boosts from FD for winning some contest. As high as 100%. But all maxed at $10.
The free bet from that DK Schwarber total bases $5 bet is $54. Not bad for a $5 bet which also won.
Lots of good stuff today on FD, DK, and MGM. And a little on Caesars. I think my +EV exceeds $100, which is quite rare for me.
August 15th, 2026 at 11:17:59 AM
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Quote: SOOPOO. I think my +EV exceeds $100
it seems like from your posts that you are profiting in your sports betting quite easily between free bets, boosts, and outright wins
correct?
if so, that's quite impressive
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 15th, 2026 at 11:38:57 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOO. I think my +EV exceeds $100
it seems like from your posts that you are profiting in your sports betting quite easily between free bets, boosts, and outright wins
correct?
if so, that's quite impressive
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I always say my ‘outright wins’ are probably no better than 50/50, even if I want to convince myself that I’m better than that.
Free bets, profit boosts, free contests, oh yeah, deposit matches, are the ‘easy’ way to profit. I’ve also detailed some other specific examples, like ‘early up’ payout, ‘tiebreaker’, that are +EV and easy.
August 15th, 2026 at 12:14:19 PM
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the poster "Mental" posted this in another thread:
" sharp bettors cannot get much money down online. I have been limited to betting less than $2 online in some cases and I am not a sharp bettor."
just sayin' - but if just betting for fun, which many are, it really doesn't matter
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the poster "Mental" posted this in another thread:
" sharp bettors cannot get much money down online. I have been limited to betting less than $2 online in some cases and I am not a sharp bettor."
just sayin' - but if just betting for fun, which many are, it really doesn't matter
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 15th, 2026 at 12:50:31 PM
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after a kind of drought I also am seeing the sites ramping up offers
Not the same ones soopoo is though
Not the same ones soopoo is though
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 15th, 2026 at 4:33:20 PM
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The May/June edition of the AARP Bulletin has a cover story on how online casinos and sportsbooks are targeting seniors. It contains some eye-opening statistics, and the usual horror stories.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
August 15th, 2026 at 6:29:45 PM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
the poster "Mental" posted this in another thread:
" sharp bettors cannot get much money down online. I have been limited to betting less than $2 online in some cases and I am not a sharp bettor."
just sayin' - but if just betting for fun, which many are, it really doesn't matter
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I used to consider myself a sharp sports bettor. Honestly, only college football. The last two years have proved that I am not as good as I think I am. Two losing years in a row.
I do not get limited on my bets but I rarely bet more than $1000 on a single bet. I do not get any promotions or bonuses anymore like Soopoo does but they probably just realize that I am a sucker and will continue to bet anyway.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
August 16th, 2026 at 4:41:01 AM
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nobody gets limited if there is no offer involvedQuote: DRichQuote: lilredrooster.
the poster "Mental" posted this in another thread:
" sharp bettors cannot get much money down online. I have been limited to betting less than $2 online in some cases and I am not a sharp bettor."
just sayin' - but if just betting for fun, which many are, it really doesn't matter
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link to original post
I used to consider myself a sharp sports bettor. Honestly, only college football. The last two years have proved that I am not as good as I think I am. Two losing years in a row.
I do not get limited on my bets but I rarely bet more than $1000 on a single bet. I do not get any promotions or bonuses anymore like Soopoo does but they probably just realize that I am a sucker and will continue to bet anyway.
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I am still amazed that they don't show in some way they want your business. One guess is you had a year where you did well, and that got you pegged as a pro. Once pegged as such, nothing you can do.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 16th, 2026 at 7:28:18 AM
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Giants -126 over Rockies
large pitching mismatch
In six starts made this season, Gabriel Hughes has compiled an abysmal 0-4 win-loss record, and a 5.61 ERA,
he's given up 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts - 9.1 innings
Tidwell has an excellent 2.78 era
he's allowed only 3 earned runs in his 2 starts this season in 10.2 innings
2 losing teams but the Giants are much better at home than the Rockies are away
64% picked Giants at covers.com
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Giants -126 over Rockies
large pitching mismatch
In six starts made this season, Gabriel Hughes has compiled an abysmal 0-4 win-loss record, and a 5.61 ERA,
he's given up 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts - 9.1 innings
Tidwell has an excellent 2.78 era
he's allowed only 3 earned runs in his 2 starts this season in 10.2 innings
2 losing teams but the Giants are much better at home than the Rockies are away
64% picked Giants at covers.com
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 16th, 2026 at 7:35:11 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit
nobody gets limited if there is no offer involved
Not true. Many pros get limited on their bet sizes for straight bets without offers. I have known many people that regularly bet $10k to $25k per bet that were limited to around $500 or just had their accounts shut down.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
August 16th, 2026 at 7:52:50 AM
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As we saw, -126 is pretty close to even money, makes you wonderQuote: lilredrooster.
Giants -126 over Rockies
large pitching mismatch
In six starts made this season, Gabriel Hughes has compiled an abysmal 0-4 win-loss record, and a 5.61 ERA,
he's given up 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts - 9.1 innings
Tidwell has an excellent 2.78 era
he's allowed only 3 earned runs in his 2 starts this season in 10.2 innings
2 losing teams but the Giants are much better at home than the Rockies are away
64% picked Giants at covers.com
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link to original post
going for it again for sure, thanks
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 16th, 2026 at 7:56:45 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambit
nobody gets limited if there is no offer involved
Not true. Many pros get limited on their bet sizes for straight bets without offers. I have known many people that regularly bet $10k to $25k per bet that were limited to around $500 or just had their accounts shut down.
link to original post
OK, betting at those levels I guess you get scrutiny, so I stand corrected
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 16th, 2026 at 11:22:40 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit-126 is pretty close to even money, makes you wonder
I've noticed that the odds are fairly often not understandable - to me anyway
i.e. today - and I'm not making a pick here, but the Dodgers are a HUGE moneyline fave over the Brewers at -180 to -192 depending on the book - the Brewers are +155 to +169
I haven't gone into it deeply but the teams look pretty evenly matched - both pitchers are very strong and their win/loss records are very close to each other
the public did not strongly like the Dodgers either at covers.com - only 55% picked them
go figure - I can't
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 16th, 2026 at 11:30:07 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: odiousgambit-126 is pretty close to even money, makes you wonder
I've noticed that the odds are fairly often not understandable - to me anyway
i.e. today - and I'm not making a pick here, but the Dodgers are a HUGE moneyline fave over the Brewers at -180 to -192 depending on the book - the Brewers are +155 to +169
I haven't gone into it deeply but the teams look pretty evenly matched - both pitchers are very strong and their win/loss records are very close to each other
the public did not strongly like the Dodgers either at covers.com - only 55% picked them
go figure - I can't
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I actually agree with your analysis. But the Dodgers pitcher is often considered the best in baseball, Tarik Skubal. But you are correct…. he’s just been ‘above average’ since his trade to the Dodgers. If you made me bet, I’d take the Brewers at those odds. Dodgers at home, by the way.
August 16th, 2026 at 11:32:49 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterQuote: odiousgambit-126 is pretty close to even money, makes you wonder
I've noticed that the odds are fairly often not understandable - to me anyway
i.e. today - and I'm not making a pick here, but the Dodgers are a HUGE moneyline fave over the Brewers at -180 to -192 depending on the book - the Brewers are +155 to +169
I haven't gone into it deeply but the teams look pretty evenly matched - both pitchers are very strong and their win/loss records are very close to each other
the public did not strongly like the Dodgers either at covers.com - only 55% picked them
go figure - I can't
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link to original post
I actually agree with your analysis. But the Dodgers pitcher is often considered the best in baseball, Tarik Skubal. But you are correct…. he’s just been ‘above average’ since his trade to the Dodgers. If you made me bet, I’d take the Brewers at those odds. Dodgers at home, by the way.
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my best guess - the books deliberately put up a very few lines that are out of whack thinking it will cause bettors to bet more on other games thinking they can beat the lines when in reality they can't -
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 17th, 2026 at 11:59:38 AM
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edit - withdrew my prop picks
I looked more closely at the game logs and they look like losers -
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edit - withdrew my prop picks
I looked more closely at the game logs and they look like losers -
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 17, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 17th, 2026 at 12:24:19 PM
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must be that he usually doesn't get an RBI but has other times he gets several, to average more than oneQuote: lilredrooster.
I noticed that covers.com frequently shows props on RBIs that seem to be advantage plays
for example, today they show Bryce Harper (who is facing a weakish pitcher) at over 0.5 RBIs at +148 at DraftKings
so far this year Harper has played in 125 games and has 72 RBIs - well more than one every 2 games on average
so, on average if you bet him twice at these odds you would often win once and lose once for a net profit of 48 on a $100 bet which translates to an edge of about 24%
in all of the props spotlighted by covers.com they quote a very high +EV - the highest at the top of the page which is +18.75% and the lowest at the bottom of the page which is 13.98% for today
correct -? or am I missing something - ?
the last name of the starter for the Marlins is "Junk"___________________:)
https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/player-props
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covers.com is being fooled by this as well it would seem ... I sure am not buying it that they would be correct with all those +Ev bets just for the taking
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 17th, 2026 at 12:28:30 PM
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edit - withdrew my prop picks
I looked closer at the game logs and they didn't look like winners
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edit - withdrew my prop picks
I looked closer at the game logs and they didn't look like winners
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 17, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 17th, 2026 at 12:33:28 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitmust be that he usually doesn't get an RBI but has other times he gets several, to average more than one
covers.com is being fooled by this as well it would seem ... I sure am not buying it that they would be correct with all those +Ev bets just for the taking
very good point
I did notice that covers.com put the EV as less than it would be if he hit one every 2 games
I made some picks for fun - I think I'll make about 24 for 6 days - of course, that's not the long run - but it will be interesting to see how these picks do
it's a lot easier and more fun that picking sides or totals
you're saying covers.com was fooled - I'm not sure about that - I do respect the info they provide - but yes, you could be correct
edit - I looked closer at the game logs and I didn't like what I saw
I think you definitely are correct
I think covers.com is pushing this stuff
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 17, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 17th, 2026 at 1:54:37 PM
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cancelled
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cancelled
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 17th, 2026 at 4:56:47 PM
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Well for sure it's nuts to post all those + EV picks unless there's some other meaning , not EV like we mean
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 18th, 2026 at 8:54:51 AM
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I found a prop I like - (which to me are more fun than sides or totals)
Carlos Narvaez under 0.5 hits -110 at bet365 - (showing -120, or -124, -125 or -129 at other books)
he's facing a tough Yankees pitcher - he's batting under .200 this year
he has hit safely in only 6 of his last 24 games and only once in his last 6 games
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I found a prop I like - (which to me are more fun than sides or totals)
Carlos Narvaez under 0.5 hits -110 at bet365 - (showing -120, or -124, -125 or -129 at other books)
he's facing a tough Yankees pitcher - he's batting under .200 this year
he has hit safely in only 6 of his last 24 games and only once in his last 6 games
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 18, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
August 18th, 2026 at 1:08:42 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: odiousgambit-126 is pretty close to even money, makes you wonder
I've noticed that the odds are fairly often not understandable - to me anyway
i.e. today - and I'm not making a pick here, but the Dodgers are a HUGE moneyline fave over the Brewers at -180 to -192 depending on the book - the Brewers are +155 to +169
I haven't gone into it deeply but the teams look pretty evenly matched - both pitchers are very strong and their win/loss records are very close to each other
the public did not strongly like the Dodgers either at covers.com - only 55% picked them
go figure - I can't
link to original post
g
I think it is also important to remember that the books are not necessarily making the lines to be what they believe is likely to occur. Books will take into consideration who they think the public is likely to bet on and skew the lines so the casual bettors will et the worst of it. In the Dodgers vs Brewers example the Dodgers are a lot more popular team and they probably draw more bets than the Brewers will. Skew the lines against the Dodgers because many bettors will bet them anyway even if they get the worst of the number.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
