Sports betting chatter
Sites need the scrutiny, and the politicians are untouchable for their role. This thread doesn't need a Cassandra. She got ignored anyway you know.Quote: lilredroosterQuote: odiousgambitGoing to this thread and slamming us with that kind of article?
you seem to take it personally
it was an article about sports betting from CBS - a generally respected news outlet
was I suppose to worry that you might be offended by the article - ?
how could I predict that - ?
and remember when you posted this - ?Quote: odiousgambitReporting on that though is irresistible. And I did say that business deserves the scrutiny.
and this - ?Quote: odiousgambitAnother thing to remember is that the politicians spreading all this new gambling don't get the scrutiny. These various gambling outfits though, they better keep their noses clean or good ol' NYT will have their ass
link to original post
Quote: SOOPOOI absolutely think prostitution should be legal.
Individual responsibility.
how about drugs?
MJ is now legal in 24 states and DC
hows about cocaine, fentanyl, heroin, speed, crystal meth - ?
still singing the song of personal responsiblity - ?
Quote: odiousgambitThis thread doesn't need a Cassandra.
I have already stated that I wasn't predicting anything for anybody here - that as far as I know everyone here gambles responsibly
but you continue with the name calling
whatever
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOI absolutely think prostitution should be legal.
Individual responsibility.
how about drugs?
MJ is now legal in 24 states and DC
hows about cocaine, fentanyl, heroin, speed, crystal meth - ?
still singing the song of personal responsiblity - ?Quote: odiousgambitThis thread doesn't need a Cassandra.
I have already stated that I wasn't predicting anything for anybody here - that as far as I know everyone here gambles responsibly
but you continue with the name calling
whatever
.
link to original post
Yes. In general, I think making drugs illegal just puts their use and distribution in the hands of bad people who do many bad things. It doesn’t stop the use of those drugs.
Individual responsibility.
You want to compare the cost to society of cigarettes and booze versus cocaine? Good luck with that.
In the same vein, I’m betting UNDER 17.5 outs for Cole tonight. The Yankees have clinched their exact playoff seeding. I think they take him out after 5 innings regardless of how he is pitching, game score, etc…
I’m fooling myself? into thinking it’s a markedly +EV bet.
Quote: SOOPOOBack to sports betting….. Yesterday nationally televised Fever-Lynx game. Clark versus Miles. Except Miles out with an ‘injury’ not known until some hours before the game. The Lynx coach then barely plays her starters in essentially a forfeit. I wonder if the coach’s cousin bet the unders for her ‘starters’? (I DO NOT believe there was a true gambling motivation).
In the same vein, I’m betting UNDER 17.5 outs for Cole tonight. The Yankees have clinched their exact playoff seeding. I think they take him out after 5 innings regardless of how he is pitching, game score, etc…
I’m fooling myself? into thinking it’s a markedly +EV bet.
link to original post
That's charitable about the Lynx- I think that league is dirty as hell and where betting is concerned I do not recognize any difference between looking like you are throwing a game and throwing a game.
As far as Cole, remember he is coming off Tommy John for just a couple of months so is likely still building up his arm strength. I think if they wanted to rest him he wouldn't be pitching at all, so this will be just a normal start and he has no more starts left in the regular season, and an extra day's rest for the 3-game.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: SOOPOOBack to sports betting….. Yesterday nationally televised Fever-Lynx game. Clark versus Miles. Except Miles out with an ‘injury’ not known until some hours before the game. The Lynx coach then barely plays her starters in essentially a forfeit. I wonder if the coach’s cousin bet the unders for her ‘starters’? (I DO NOT believe there was a true gambling motivation).
In the same vein, I’m betting UNDER 17.5 outs for Cole tonight. The Yankees have clinched their exact playoff seeding. I think they take him out after 5 innings regardless of how he is pitching, game score, etc…
I’m fooling myself? into thinking it’s a markedly +EV bet.
link to original post
That's charitable about the Lynx- I think that league is dirty as hell and where betting is concerned I do not recognize any difference between looking like you are throwing a game and throwing a game.
As far as Cole, remember he is coming off Tommy John for just a couple of months so is likely still building up his arm strength. I think if they wanted to rest him he wouldn't be pitching at all, so this will be just a normal start and he has no more starts left in the regular season, and an extra day's rest for the 3-game.
link to original post
You were correct in your analysis, but I was lucky and won the bet. They let him pitch 105 pitches, but pulled him after 17 outs!
Today I got the ‘up 7 automatic win’ and always take the underdog. Falcons win at +220. My Penix over rushing yards looks like it will end up a loser. He hasn’t once even thought about running. I have a different bet on Love also over rushing. Same. He hasn’t considered a rush yet. Reminds me of why Josh Allen is light years better than Love/Penix/ most everyone.
texas tech..... w............... 0.91 units
Pittsburgh.... L.................... 1 unit
Florida State ....L................1 unit
E Carolina ..... L.................1 unit
cent. Mich ..... W ............ 0.96
W Kentucky,,,, W ,,,,,,,,,,,, 0.91
No, Texas...... W............... 0.91
SMU..............L............ 1 unit
Still betting cautiously. If they paid even money it would have been 'fair bet week', but lost 0.31 units
Quote: odiousgambitBack to betting the over this weekend when the spread starts to approach the total points over/under
texas tech..... w............... 0.91 units
Pittsburgh.... L.................... 1 unit
Florida State ....L................1 unit
E Carolina ..... L.................1 unit
cent. Mich ..... W ............ 0.96
W Kentucky,,,, W ,,,,,,,,,,,, 0.91
No, Texas...... W............... 0.91
SMU..............L............ 1 unit
Still betting cautiously. If they paid even money it would have been 'fair bet week', but lost 0.31 units
link to original post
There will be fewer and fewer of these available as the season goes on. Just curious, what is the maximum spread between line and total that you are using for these?
I don't have a hard and fast rule and maybe a few of these somebody else would have said 'ain't close enough'Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitBack to betting the over this weekend when the spread starts to approach the total points over/under
texas tech..... w............... 0.91 units
Pittsburgh.... L.................... 1 unit
Florida State ....L................1 unit
E Carolina ..... L.................1 unit
cent. Mich ..... W ............ 0.96
W Kentucky,,,, W ,,,,,,,,,,,, 0.91
No, Texas...... W............... 0.91
SMU..............L............ 1 unit
Still betting cautiously. If they paid even money it would have been 'fair bet week', but lost 0.31 units
link to original post
There will be fewer and fewer of these available as the season goes on. Just curious, what is the maximum spread between line and total that you are using for these?
link to original post
The typical marginal one would be 50 pt spread, 61 pt total, or 38 spread, 52 total ......... just trying to remember. I never do research, like trying to find if both teams have a good defense, but with a huge 'total' I kind of assume not, not both anyway
Quote: odiousgambitI don't have a hard and fast rule and maybe a few of these somebody else would have said 'ain't close enough'Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitBack to betting the over this weekend when the spread starts to approach the total points over/under
texas tech..... w............... 0.91 units
Pittsburgh.... L.................... 1 unit
Florida State ....L................1 unit
E Carolina ..... L.................1 unit
cent. Mich ..... W ............ 0.96
W Kentucky,,,, W ,,,,,,,,,,,, 0.91
No, Texas...... W............... 0.91
SMU..............L............ 1 unit
Still betting cautiously. If they paid even money it would have been 'fair bet week', but lost 0.31 units
link to original post
There will be fewer and fewer of these available as the season goes on. Just curious, what is the maximum spread between line and total that you are using for these?
link to original post
The typical marginal one would be 50 pt spread, 61 pt total, or 38 spread, 52 total ......... just trying to remember. I never do research, like trying to find if both teams have a good defense, but with a huge 'total' I kind of assume not, not both anyway
link to original post
Thank you. I tend to start looking at them if the number is under 13 and seriously consider them at 10.
Sat:
UAB -30.5 ......... o/u 51.5
Florida Atlantic -44.5 ... o/u 61.5
LSU -48.5 ... o/u 60.5
today
Tulsa -1.5 ...... o/u 57.5
right now betting on Tulsa game, the under not the over
and LSU game, the over
sticking to betting small
others are under a watch, not really tight enough numbers for me
My best bet yesterday was (super correlated) Tolle under 5.5 K’s, Yankees -1.5. Both individually were underdogs, but at +426 it seemed like +EV. I was limited to $50 as opposed to $10, I ‘think’ because I became level 3 on FanDuel.
Quote: findingEV29 of 32. Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Winston (Giants, as you mentioned), and Deshaun Watson (Browns) did not hit that mark.
link to original post
Thank you. I just asked AI and it omitted Watson.
The bet hit easily. Both cleared 200. In a generally poor night for me, at least I hit on Olson HR boosted to +590.
The other +EV bet given last night was Clark/Wilson to combine for 50 at +100. They averaged over that in the regular season, and this was an elimination game when the stars get more playing time. Wilson carried the duo to victory.
Quote: odiousgambit
today
Tulsa -1.5 ...... o/u 57.5
That Tulsa game was a good game. I wanted to fall asleep but I made it through overtime. North Texas offense was much better than Tulsa but the two interceptions were key.
oddsmakers had the spread right but the under got crushed .... no one played defense till it was time for interceptions? pick 6s? [didn't watch]
I asked my AI which goalie is most likely to have the most saves, which essentially is asking which team’s defense will give up the most shots. Logan Thompson was its answer, with the strong Hurricanes as his opponent. I bet over 28.5…. That was easy win as he had 31. And that was highest of the night. My $10 bet won $12…. and a $40 bonus bet.
DK giving +150 on Florida/Miami/Ohio State. Fair probably around +100.
Quote: SOOPOOYesterday DK had promo. Bet on any goalie for number of saves. If your choice also has the most saves that night you win a share of $250k bonus bets. 5 games, so 10 choices.
I asked my AI which goalie is most likely to have the most saves, which essentially is asking which team’s defense will give up the most shots. Logan Thompson was its answer, with the strong Hurricanes as his opponent. I bet over 28.5…. That was easy win as he had 31. And that was highest of the night. My $10 bet won $12…. and a $40 bonus bet.
DK giving +150 on Florida/Miami/Ohio State. Fair probably around +100.
link to original post
Unfortunately, I fell for the Florida trap. It just seemed too good and we know what that means. I had a poor weekend as I lost two units on college football this week.
new strategy for me
underdogs only from a free picks service
of course I'm not going to handicap all of those games
my logic: they overpick and overvalue the favorites - so when they do pick an underdog they have a strong reason
they pick favorites about twice as often as dogs and in the long run faves and dogs each win right about 50% of the time
I didn't publicly post the picks but for college football in weeks 4 and 5 the underdog picks went 10-7 and 9-3
the NFL picks for last week went 5-2
here are the underdog picks from the free service for the NFL in week 4:
patriots + 7 over bills
jets +3.5 over Bears
Jaguars +2.5 over bengals
falcons +1.5 over Saints
giants +2.5 over cardinals
.
My overall best bet ever was today. (At least the result…). Derrick Henry to score the first touchdown for all of the 1pm games. I got 51-1 on my $5 bet. Plus if he wins I share free bets from big bonus pool. So I win around $255, and get a single bonus bet from Caesars….. $1367.
I won $98 from DraftKings in a ‘King of the Cage’ promo yesterday.
And $40 on a goaltender type NHL prop.
As I remind lilRed often, it’s not like I can pick team A over team B better than you, but I can identify which offers to use and which to avoid. And using a combination of skill(small) and luck (large) doesn’t hurt.
I’m not sure what I’m going to do with that $1367 bet. Probably look for a 2-1 or 3-1 underdog and hedge it on the 3 other sites to guarantee some win while giving the 3 other sites the -EV bets that I think give me longevity.
NHL - Flyers v. Lightning under 6
Philly has just 4 total goals thru 3 games while Tampa Bay has 4 goals thru 2 games
in the last 6 games including pre-season the Lightning has been under that total 4 times, over it once and tied it once
the Flyers have been under that total 3 times, over it once and tied twice
.
I just found out something I didn't know
they offer what is called a "3 way moneyline"
which means the team has to win in regulation for your bet to win
it greatly increases the payout on a strong fave
for example last night the Dallas Stars (who won) were about -190 but -103 on the 3 way moneyline
pretty interesting and potentially very useful
Quote: lilredroosterI'm not an experienced NHL bettor
I just found out something I didn't know
they offer what is called a "3 way moneyline"
which means the team has to win in regulation for your bet to win
it greatly increases the payout on a strong fave
for example last night the Dallas Stars (who won) were about -190 but -103 on the 3 way moneyline
pretty interesting and potentially very useful
link to original post
As long as you are aware (seems high, but it’s what AI said!) that around 25% of games are tied after regulation, which are graded as losses in your 3 way bets of course for both teams. The Kings last year had 40% of their games go to OT! LOTS of parity in the NHL!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterI'm not an experienced NHL bettor
I just found out something I didn't know
they offer what is called a "3 way moneyline"
which means the team has to win in regulation for your bet to win
it greatly increases the payout on a strong fave
for example last night the Dallas Stars (who won) were about -190 but -103 on the 3 way moneyline
pretty interesting and potentially very useful
link to original post
As long as you are aware (seems high, but it’s what AI said!) that around 25% of games are tied after regulation, which are graded as losses in your 3 way bets of course for both teams. The Kings last year had 40% of their games go to OT! LOTS of parity in the NHL!
link to original post
with a very strong fave such as Dallas who were 50-26 last year against the bottom feeding Sharks who were 20-50 (both not counting overtime losses) the game would seem much less likely than a 25% chance to go to OT.
would you agree with that?
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredroosterI'm not an experienced NHL bettor
I just found out something I didn't know
they offer what is called a "3 way moneyline"
which means the team has to win in regulation for your bet to win
it greatly increases the payout on a strong fave
for example last night the Dallas Stars (who won) were about -190 but -103 on the 3 way moneyline
pretty interesting and potentially very useful
link to original post
As long as you are aware (seems high, but it’s what AI said!) that around 25% of games are tied after regulation, which are graded as losses in your 3 way bets of course for both teams. The Kings last year had 40% of their games go to OT! LOTS of parity in the NHL!
link to original post
with a very strong fave such as Dallas who were 50-26 last year against the bottom feeding Sharks who were 20-50 (both not counting overtime losses) the game would seem much less likely than a 25% chance to go to OT.
would you agree with that?
.
link to original post
Slightly less than 25%, yes!
But what makes you think Dallas was some sort of good team in REGULATION time last year? They won only
46%
of their games in regulation!!!!
You are correct on the Sharks. They only won or made it to OT on 39% of their games. But that is way more than the 20 win total overall leads you to believe.
By the way, I used Dallas on both my hockey parlays! And had it not been for their 5 lucky goals, they wouldn’t have won!
By the way, although I may be snarky towards you, I admire your intellectual curiosity.
As the findingEV posted, this stuff is baked into those ‘60 minute’ odds lines.
$1367 at +305 to pay $4170
Hedge $3150 at -350 to pay $4050
Favorite wins I win $900
Underdog wins I win $1020
The three sportsbooks I hedged with see a $1050 -EV bet. Maybe a coincidence, but one of the sites gave me a ‘deposit match offer’ right after. I read the full T’s and C’s, and THERE WAS NO LIMIT on how high the deposit could be, just a minimum limit of $10. The deposit match is 25%, and matched in free bets, so worth (for me) maybe 18%. And there were NO play through requirements in the T and C’s. I will at least play through the entire deposit one time before I consider making a withdrawal.
I won’t say how much I deposited, but if I knew there would be no scrutiny, or ex post facto limit, or banning for bonus abuse etc…. I’d have put $$$,$$$ in.
Quote: findingEVThis is the way -- phenomenal work -- I agree with placing the -EV hedge to smooth variance and make other books happy, play through deposits, etc
link to original post
Thank you! Butttttt….. I will relay to the forum what Axel told me…..
He said since I have lots of $$$, and are still making lots of $$$ (I was working back then), that I should just go for the +EV and tolerate the variance.
In this instance I think keeping the other books happy leads to longer term +EV.
Soopoo - you educated me about the 3 way moneyline - I had overlooked some of the stats - thank you for that
as I indicated I am inexperienced in NHL betting
I still consider it is a potentially good bet when a very top team is playing a bottom feeder
.
Oilers vs. Ducks over 6.5
the oilers have had 2 games against the low scoring Canucks (2.63 goals per game last year) end up with a 6-5 loss and a 9-7 win
in the pre-season the Ducks allowed the Sharks to get 10 goals on them
their 3 game series last year had 11 goals scored twice and 6 goals scored once
in their playoff series 5 of the 6 went over that total
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
Oilers vs. Ducks over 6.5
the oilers have had 2 games against the low scoring Canucks (2.63 goals per game last year) end up with a 6-5 loss and a 9-7 win
in the pre-season the Ducks allowed the Sharks to get 10 goals on them
their 3 game series last year had 11 goals scored twice and 6 goals scored once
in their playoff series 5 of the 6 went over that total
.
link to original post
Please tell me you didn’t actually mention a pre season NHL game?!?! How many of the Shark’s top 4 defensemen played in that game? I’m not checking, but I’d bet no more than one. Did their best goalie play? NHL preseason is ‘almost’ as useless as NFL preseason. I’d bet not! There top 6 forwards? I’ll bet two or less.
Heck. I’ll bet with you!
Edit. The BEST odds I could find on over 6.5 was -135. So it needs to hit 27 out of 47 times just to break even!
I got Cowboys
I got Bijan Robinson.
Quote: SOOPOO
Heck. I’ll bet with you!
winner winner chicken dinner________________:)
the earlier under pick on an NHL game won also
tonight - going with the chalk
Senators -145 over the Flyers
the Flyers haven't won a game and have scored only 5 goals in 4 games and have given up 17 goals
it's the home opener for the Senators who are 2-1 and they have scored 10 goals in 3 games and have given up only 8
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOO
Heck. I’ll bet with you!
winner winner chicken dinner________________:)
the earlier under pick on an NHL game won also
tonight - going with the chalk
Senators -145 over the Flyers
the Flyers haven't won a game and have scored only 5 goals in 4 games and have given up 17 goals
this is their 3rd road game in 4 days
it's the home opener for the Senators who are 2-1 and they have scored 10 goals in 3 games and have given up only 8
.
link to original post
Will bet with you again! Flyers made it to OT in 2 of their 4 games. So not far from being 2-2. Have to win 29 out of 49 of these bets to break even. Do you know how hard that is? My AI assistant tells me over the last two NHL seasons, only FOUR teams won at least 29 out of their first 49 games! That’s out of 64 possibilities!
My point is it’s easy to find teams more likely to win a game than lose. But it’s MUCH HARDER to do it and overcome the built in vig the odds allow.
your above calculations did not consider that my AI search indicates that home teams (obviously including many longshots) win 55% of the time in the long run
and of course, I would not look for just any team more likely to win - it would have to be a very strong reasoning for me to back chalk
but you're right of course - it is difficult - it's difficult to win in the long run no matter what you do no matter which sport and no matter what strategy you use - it for sure ain't easy
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
your above calculations did not consider that my AI search indicates that home teams (obviously including many longshots) win 55% of the time in the long run
and of course, I would not look for just any team more likely to win - it would have to be a very strong reasoning for me to back chalk
but you're right of course - it is difficult - it's difficult to win in the long run no matter what you do no matter which sport and no matter what strategy you use - it for sure ain't easy
.
link to original post
It’s ALL about the odds! No one here will disagree that the Sens are more likely to win that game. It’s about figuring out HOW MUCH more likely they are to win it! At -145 they have to win it 59% of the time for you to even BREAK EVEN.
So answer me this, if they played this game 100 times, how often do you think Sens win? You have a baseline of 55%. How much does this specific match up move that number in your estimation?
Edit. Flyers WON 56% of their road games last year!
I don't believe it's possible to make an exact calculation of how often a team will win against another team
imho you have to make some kind of subjective judgement
since you made the bet also, I'm assuming you don't think it's a bad bet
but you pretty obviously don't think it's a good bet
maybe for you, you consider it's a -EV bet to help with your bonuses
whatever, I will carry on my way making the best judgements I can, knowing that I can't do an exact calculation
based on your analyses it would seem to indicate it's almost never good to make a chalky bet
but would the other side be any better? - idk - I doubt it.
I don't not make a pick because of last season's record
I made the pick based on this year
and so far the Flyers have been horrible
things can change a lot from one year to the next
the Panthers had an excellent record and won the Stanley Cup final 2 seasons ago and had a strong winning record
then last season they had a losing record and finished 7th in the Atlantic Division and missed the playoffs
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
I don't believe it's possible to make an exact calculation of how often a team will win against another team
imho you have to make some kind of subjective judgement
since you made the bet also, I'm assuming you don't think it's a bad bet
but you pretty obviously don't think it's a good bet
maybe for you, you consider it's a -EV bet to help with your bonuses
whatever, I will carry on my way making the best judgements I can, knowing that I can't do an exact calculation
based on your analyses it would seem to indicate it's almost never good to make a chalky bet
but would the other side be any better? - idk - I doubt it.
I don't not make a pick because of last season's record
I made the pick based on this year
and so far the Flyers have been horrible
things can change a lot from one year to the next
the Panthers had an excellent record and won the Stanley Cup final 2 seasons ago and had a strong winning record
then last season they had a losing record and finished 7th in the Atlantic Division and missed the playoffs
.
link to original post
I made the bet because I’m having fun tailing you! My bet was a tad less than $10! The game is between the Sens and the Flyers. Do you know the over/under on how many points the Sens will have is 93.5. And the Flyers 92.5! So they are essentially considered equal teams this year. Actually, since the Flyers have a few fewer points than the Sens do now, they are expected to do BETTER (slightly) than the Sens moving forward.
Now to your first sentence. Of course you can’t make an EXACT calculation on how often a team will win against another team, but to decide whether or not to bet, given the stated odds, that is EXACTLY what you do!
Go Sens
Quote: SOOPOOGo Sens
based on this season's record, not last year's -
I don't think it at all unreasonable to think that the Sens would beat them at home 3 out of 5 times
increasing not a great deal from the 55% overall home wins (only a 5% increase)
if that is correct that would indicate a small, (very small) profit
it could be that this season's early results turn out to mean little
in which case the bet would not be a good one
or it could be that these early results portend the future
in which case it looks to me like a good bet
you can't know everything if you want to bet at all
all you can do is make the best judgement you can make
I don't really care about the over/under on the total points
that reflects the public's opinion which is often wrong
it means nothing to me
once again, worth repeating
so far this season the Sens have averaged 2 goals more per game then the Flyers
and the've averaged giving up 3 less goals per game
and the Sens haven't had any games go into OT this year which would have given them more time to make more goals
as you indicated the Flyers lost twice in OT giving them more time to make goals
.
In my contest, 83.5% of contestants have been eliminated.
I have taken
1. Raiders over Dolphins
2. 49ers over Dolphins
3. Chiefs over Dolphins
4. Vikings over Dolphins
In week 5, I am considering Texans over Titans. I am getting a bad feeling about fading the Dolphins in a fifth straight game. They've showed signs of having a pulse. And there may not be a better week to pick the Texans in the future.
Quote: gordonm888Soopoo, who are you taking this week in your NFL Survivor contest?
In my contest, 83.5% of contestants have been eliminated.
I have taken
1. Raiders over Dolphins
2. 49ers over Dolphins
3. Chiefs over Dolphins
4. Vikings over Dolphins
In week 5, I am considering Texans over Titans. I am getting a bad feeling about fading the Dolphins in a fifth straight game. They've showed signs of having a pulse. And there may not be a better week to pick the Texans in the future.
link to original post
unfortunately I have the Cowboys. I can’t describe how bad they are playing. About to be down 14 towards the end of the 3rd quarter.
Quote: SOOPOOWill bet with you again!
winner, winner
roast beef dinner____________:)
Iowa +2.5 over Washington
Iowa State +10.5 over BYU
Sacramento +7.5 over Bowling Green
UNC +3.5 over Pitt
UCF +10.5 over Oklahoma St.
California +10 over Va. Tech
Syracuse +10 over Virginia
Hawaii + 20.5 over Arizona State
Tulsa +1.5 over Navy
Houston + 3 over Kansas State
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOWill bet with you again!
winner, winner
roast beef dinner____________:)
Iowa +2.5 over Washington
Iowa State +10.5 over BYU
Sacramento +7.5 over Bowling Green
UNC +3.5 over Pitt
UCF +10.5 over Oklahoma St.
California +10 over Va. Tech
Syracuse +10 over Virginia
Hawaii + 20.5 over Arizona State
Tulsa +1.5 over Navy
Houston + 3 over Kansas State
.
link to original post
I’ll be tailing you. First bet is three leg parlay. Iowa +2.5, Iowa St + 11.5, and Sacramento + 8.5. I’m getting an extra point on two of the games. I’ll figure out something for the others tomorrow. I’m almost certain to get more 3 leg parlay profit boosts.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888Soopoo, who are you taking this week in your NFL Survivor contest?
In my contest, 83.5% of contestants have been eliminated.
I have taken
1. Raiders over Dolphins
2. 49ers over Dolphins
3. Chiefs over Dolphins
4. Vikings over Dolphins
In week 5, I am considering Texans over Titans. I am getting a bad feeling about fading the Dolphins in a fifth straight game. They've showed signs of having a pulse. And there may not be a better week to pick the Texans in the future.
link to original post
unfortunately I have the Cowboys. I can’t describe how bad they are playing. About to be down 14 towards the end of the 3rd quarter.
link to original post
You have my sympathy. That was the upset of the season.
This was the first time ever (since 1960) that an undrafted free agent quarterback started a game in his rookie year for a winless team and won the game. And it happened on the road on a Thursday night with reduced preparation time. It's the damndest thing.
In Week 5 of the ESPN Survivor game 39.1% of the surviving participants made Dallas their pick to beat Tampa Bay.
Quote: SOOPOOMight not be the best, but this is (approximately) what I did with the $1367 free bet.
$1367 at +305 to pay $4170
Hedge $3150 at -350 to pay $4050
Favorite wins I win $900
Underdog wins I win $1020
The three sportsbooks I hedged with see a $1050 -EV bet. Maybe a coincidence, but one of the sites gave me a ‘deposit match offer’ right after. I read the full T’s and C’s, and THERE WAS NO LIMIT on how high the deposit could be, just a minimum limit of $10. The deposit match is 25%, and matched in free bets, so worth (for me) maybe 18%. And there were NO play through requirements in the T and C’s. I will at least play through the entire deposit one time before I consider making a withdrawal.
I won’t say how much I deposited, but if I knew there would be no scrutiny, or ex post facto limit, or banning for bonus abuse etc…. I’d have put $$$,$$$ in.
link to original post
Bet a tad more on Mississippi. Final tally +$942. Back to skimming my usual $5-$10 per bet..
LUCKY as can be cover. Last leg of parlay was over in Aces game. There were almost no points in the third quarter. With a minute to go need 20 or so points…. OT! And a high scoring one!
Equally unlucky. I needed at TD and XP to cover a (for me) big parlay in Cowboys game. They score TD, but go for two…. You know the rest of the story.
the college picks went 6-4
today:
Colts +2.5 over Steelers
Saints +2.5 over Vikings
Browns +2.5 over Jets
Ravens +3.5 over Falcons
49ers +3.5 over Seahawks
.
Quote: lilredrooster.
the above college picks went 6-4
Colts +2.5 over Steelers
Saints +2 over Vikings
Browns +2.5 over Jets
Ravens +3.5 over Falcons
Broncos +3.5 over Chargers
.
link to original post
I’m assuming a typo and it’s Broncos -3.5.
I had one good ‘weather’ pick last night. GA/BAMA under.
The Eagles are in total disarray. That being said, I bet on them to win outright at +325. I win if they are up 7 at any point. I think at worst they score first TD 1 out of 3 times.
Edit. Cha Ching. That $162 equals 35 gallons of gas for SOOPOO.
