Sports betting chatter

Quote: billryan

A state Judge has ruled that Brenden Sorsby, a QB from Texas Tech, must be allowed to play football even though he admitted to betting on Tech and making thousands of bets.
link to original post

This is getting nasty and will soon be political. The Texas AG, who is running for the US Senate, sent a letter to the B12 warning them not to interfere with this case. B12 intends to sue TT in federal court, alleging a breach of the B12 bylaws.

Quote: billryan

Quote: billryan

A state Judge has ruled that Brenden Sorsby, a QB from Texas Tech, must be allowed to play football even though he admitted to betting on Tech and making thousands of bets.
link to original post

This is getting nasty and will soon be political. The Texas AG, who is running for the US Senate, sent a letter to the B12 warning them not to interfere with this case. B12 intends to sue TT in federal court, alleging a breach of the B12 bylaws.
link to original post

Settling a dispute in court is regarded by society as "going through the appropriate channels." The Big12 Conference doesn't want to take action only to have TTU sue them in a court that they've chosen because it is run by their hand-picked judge. The Big12 would rather initiate the court proceeding in a court of their own chosing. Just legal gamesmanship, but this is the stuff that determines who wins.

The TTU somehow was allowed to pick a retired state judge that they know very well (an alumni, a big donor) to hear their NCAA complaint - which resulted in an injunction decision and schedule for a hearing that is widely regarded as a soul-crushing, hideously stupid and unfair decision. The case is decided without a hearing because the complaintant, Sorsby, gets everything he has asked for - in flagrant violation of the rules - before any argument can be made by the NCAA. Judicial home cooking.

What is considered to be betting against your team? Obviously, betting your team will lose qualifies, but what about betting the under on points? Is betting your starting running back gets held to under the yards rushed betting against the team? Would it be acceptable to bet your team goes over on passing yards, but a no-no to bet the under?
The gambling addict has given up on playing in the NCAA and has now set his sights on the NFL.
Sports Illustrated has said he bet that his team would be under in passing yardage and placed at least 40 bets on games involving his team.
Some people say this guy has the potential to be a long-term starting QB if given the chance in the league where they openly pay for play..

US Open today. Weather supposed to be REALLY BAD for golf. Rainy and VERY windy. I got a bunch of bets down on ‘over’ for player’s scores. My big risk? If the round is delayed/suspended and someone I bet on gets to finish the round in easier conditions tomorrow. (If it IS easier tomorrow!).

My longshot guess. Clark.

Due to the nature of some offers, also have Scheffler.

Quote: SOOPOO

US Open today. Weather supposed to be REALLY BAD for golf. Rainy and VERY windy. I got a bunch of bets down on ‘over’ for player’s scores. My big risk? If the round is delayed/suspended and someone I bet on gets to finish the round in easier conditions tomorrow. (If it IS easier tomorrow!).

My longshot guess. Clark.

Due to the nature of some offers, also have Scheffler.
link to original post

You called it. Play suspended for the day with about 40 players having not completed round 1. Clark at -6 currently leads by 4 strokes.

Was Clark a longshot? He has been playing pretty well lately so I am not surprised he is amongst the leaders.

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

US Open today. Weather supposed to be REALLY BAD for golf. Rainy and VERY windy. I got a bunch of bets down on ‘over’ for player’s scores. My big risk? If the round is delayed/suspended and someone I bet on gets to finish the round in easier conditions tomorrow. (If it IS easier tomorrow!).

My longshot guess. Clark.

Due to the nature of some offers, also have Scheffler.
link to original post

You called it. Play suspended for the day with about 40 players having not completed round 1. Clark at -6 currently leads by 4 strokes.

Was Clark a longshot? He has been playing pretty well lately so I am not surprised he is amongst the leaders.
link to original post

That’s what I thought too! I got 40-1 on a $5 free bet. Seemed like good value! Now I can add at just -220! He is SIX shots ahead with one round to play. I guess when you are playing WITH Scheffler the bookies think you will succumb to the pressure? He is a previous US Open champ so I think -220 is great value.
I have another bet that I thought was great value that’s in position. Harman/Woodland/Rose all top 40 finishes at 17-1. I like previous major winners. Harman and Woodland are heavy favorites to make top 40, and Rose a slight favorite. Too bad only bet $1.
Today getting + odds on Sam Stevens to get 3 or more birdies (eagles count). Analysts say this will be in ‘easy’ conditions.
Yesterday my boosted birdies or better was Harry Higgs. Almost all the golfers were o/u 2.5. But Higgs was o/u 1.5. He had abysmal round, but still had two birdies. There was one of the par 5’s that played as a slightly difficult par 4.

My Scheffler bet gets me my money back if he finishes second. So Clark/Scheffler! My rooting interest does want Scheffler to chase him down to get the career grand slam.

Go Yamine Yamal in soccer today!

Next USA soccer game ‘meaningless’. Might take Turkey if the odds are high enough.

In past WC tournaments, Turkey would have had many incentives to play hard, as third place was decided by goal differential rather than head-to-head play.
While I like the head-to-head aspect, I don't like there being meaningless games in the WC. It's so hard to qualify for this that every game should be meaningful.

LINE SHOPPING.

I mentioned -220 for Clark. I check my 4 sites. The other 3 were -280, -280, and -300.

Another bet got +150 when best of the other 3 was +115. I can’t say if the + 150 is +EV but it’s better than +115!

after complaining about HR, I'm now getting a daily no-sweat. It seems to be coming from marketing considering where I have to look for it.
Only $5 but I'll happily play it, 35 per week after all. Has to be on world cup so I guess it will end

Quote: SOOPOO

That’s what I thought too! I got 40-1 on a $5 free bet. Seemed like good value!

Great call on your 40-1 shot.

I don't follow golf anymore, but why was the crowd so hostile? Is Shinnicock always like that?

Quote: billryan

I don't follow golf anymore, but why was the crowd so hostile? Is Shinnicock always like that?
link to original post

From what I've read, he is not popular with the fans. Too much of a temper.

Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: billryan

I don't follow golf anymore, but why was the crowd so hostile? Is Shinnicock always like that?
link to original post

From what I've read, he is not popular with the fans. Too much of a temper.
link to original post

Watched most. Us regular golfers get a yardage, look what’s between the pin and the ball, assess the wind, pick a club and hit the ball in what, 10 seconds? Watching Clark and his caddy bloviate over every shot was agonizing. They had a one minute discussion over where he would take his free drop on one hole. Had that happened in my foursome, the player would have gotten 3 ‘drop the effing ball’.
He did make one of the best birdies in golf history. Drive into some thick stuff. Can barely see any part of the ball. He advances it straight into the fairway well over 100 yards giving himself straightforward 3rd shot. Good shot but leaves ‘rollercoaster’ putt. Hits it up the hill. Crests. Slowly rolls down the hill softly into the cup.
People were rooting against him more because they were rooting FOR Scheffler.

.
most small time sports bettors probably ignore reporting to the IRS even though that's technically illegal

bur for larger wins sportsbooks will issue a W-2G to the IRS and the bettor himself

for 2026 there is a crazy new law on the books re sportsbetting wins

here it is:

from Superlawyers.com:

as of tax year 2026, taxpayers can only deduct up to 90% of their gambling losses against gambling winnings. Prior to 2026, gamblers could deduct up to 100% of their winnings based on losses.

which means if you won $100K and lost $100K you still owe taxes on $10K to the IRS

is it any wonder that people hate the IRS - ?

not to mention that depending on any winnings and the State you may owe additional State taxes

oh, and this is cute - the IRS is attempting to collect taxes from foreigners in the U.S. betting on the World Cup

from JT Summer Tax Back:

" the IRS is actively focused on collecting tax on gambling winnings from foreign citizens betting in the U.S. during the 2026 World Cup. Foreigners (nonresident aliens) are generally subject to a 30% federal withholding tax on gross U.S.-source gambling winnings, and the IRS has clarified that these reporting and withholding obligations apply to sports-betting wins."

from Thomas Reuters Tax:

"Increased Focus: With the 2026 World Cup occurring in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, the IRS has issued specific guidance (Notice 2026-06) for international tax compliance for the event."

oh, sure, Good Luck with that - no doubt a great many foreigners will be paying tax to the IRS - sure they will

oh, wait there's more - from the IRS.gov

"No Loss Deductions: Generally, non-resident aliens cannot deduct gambling losses to offset their winnings, meaning they are taxed on the gross amount, not net profit."

those poor, poor foreigners - win $100K and then lose $100K and the IRS is aiming to collect tax on $100k of the winnings.

more from IRS.gov:

"$2,000 Threshold: For 2026, the threshold for reporting sports betting winnings (W-2G) has been adjusted, but the 30% withholding rule for foreign visitors still applies to taxable winnings."

ha, ha, ha

from Thompson Reuters tax and accounting:

"Increased Focus: With the 2026 World Cup occurring in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, the IRS has issued specific guidance (Notice 2026-06) for international tax compliance for the event."

ha, ha, ha

.

Every dime the government gets from foreigners is a dime that won't come from Americans. What's not to love?
A rich tourist who can afford to bet 100K can afford to pay some tax on his winnings.

Quote: billryan

Every dime the government gets from foreigners is a dime that won't come from Americans. What's not to love?
A rich tourist who can afford to bet 100K can afford to pay some tax on his winnings.
link to original post

that may be true
but most will win much less than that and they can't deduct any losses which is of course grossly unfair to them
I seriously doubt the IRS has the ability to collect from the masses who won't file with them
if a foreigner wins $2k with an onsite book I doubt the book will do the proper withholding, I doubt that the foreigner will file, and I doubt the IRS will be able to collect

what if the foreigner is in the U.S. but made the bet on the phone with a book in his own country - ?
is the IRS going to try and collect on that - ?
who knows - ? - I'm sure they'd like to get a piece of it - if they think they can_______________:)

hey, hey, hey - I searched got the answer to that one - it's a real crowd pleaser - ha, ha, ha

from Thomson Reuters tax and accounting:

"Yes, a foreigner is generally subject to U.S. tax on gambling winnings if the bet is placed while physically inside the U.S. The IRS sources gambling income by where the wager was placed, regardless of the bookmaker's location or the currency used."

.

Quote: lilredrooster

.
most small time sports bettors probably ignore reporting to the IRS even though that's technically illegal

bur for larger wins sportsbooks will issue a W-2G to the IRS and the bettor himself

Very few sports bets qualify for W2G's. I have never received a W2G for a sports bet and I make many bets each year that payout thousands of dollars.

Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

.
most small time sports bettors probably ignore reporting to the IRS even though that's technically illegal

bur for larger wins sportsbooks will issue a W-2G to the IRS and the bettor himself

Very few sports bets qualify for W2G's. I have never received a W2G for a sports bet and I make many bets each year that payout thousands of dollars.
link to original post

yes, that's true
I would take a guess that those who are trying to empower the IRS may change the rules re when a W-2G is issued as they have changed the rules re deducting losses

from Super Lawyers:

"A sports bet triggers an IRS Form W-2G if your net winnings (payout minus the initial wager) are $2,000 or more AND the payout is at least 300 times your wager."

from Enterprise Consultants:

"The IRS loses an estimated $1.4 billion in uncollected tax revenue due to individuals failing to report their gambling winnings, according to a prominent audit released by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration"

from Tax Notes +3:

"The investigation tracked a multi-year period to assess how much income slip-offs cost the government.
The metrics are staggering:
The Unreported Total: Individuals failed to report $13.2 billion in gambling winnings over a three-year span.

The Non-Filers:

Nearly 150,000 individuals won at least $15,000 each but never filed a tax return.

The High Earners:

Roughly 37% of those non-filers were considered high-income individuals, representing about 90% of the total unpaid tax revenue."

"A New Crackdown Is Underway
Because this gap contributes significantly to the nation's overall annual tax gap, the IRS has significantly shifted its enforcement strategy. The agency is deploying advanced AI analytics, cross-referencing bank deposit histories, and automatically tracking state-level sportsbook data to catch unreported gaming revenue."

.

A millionaire athlete loses millions gambling. He's a year away from signing a free agent contract estimated at over a hundred million dollars, so he hits up one of his fellow million-dollar athletes for a loan to cover the debt. The friend lends him the money but suggests he work it off by shaving points and tanking some prop bets. The FBI is informed of crazy betting patterns and at the end of the year, instead of getting that hundred million dollar contract, he is suspended and is about to be indicted.
Only in the NBA.

Quote: billryan

A millionaire athlete loses millions gambling. He's a year away from signing a free agent contract estimated at over a hundred million dollars, so he hits up one of his fellow million-dollar athletes for a loan to cover the debt. The friend lends him the money but suggests he work it off by shaving points and tanking some prop bets. The FBI is informed of crazy betting patterns and at the end of the year, instead of getting that hundred million dollar contract, he is suspended and is about to be indicted.
Only in the NBA.
link to original post

Six active or former NBA players have been indicted for fixing bets. Roughly one percent of the league's players have been caught; who knows how many more there are?

SOOPOO has been on a mini heater. Yesterday started 3 parlays with Ketel Marte either HR, two + TB, or plain hit. He was over .500 previously against the starting pitcher. Lead off HR led to two parlay wins. And a straight bet at + odds of 2 or more total bases.
Julio Rodriguez and Jo Adell are in a similar situation today. Got them parlayed for HRs at 29-1.
LOTS of free money today. WNBA, WC, and MLB profit boosts all will be turned into $$ with zero risk. $$ = more than $10 but less than $100…..

Gee. I wonder if ‘someone’ knows something that isn’t public? And ‘might’ have bet BIG $$ using that knowledge. All websites that I perused, official and unofficial, list Aja Wilson as ‘questionable’. At the home of the Liberty they were around +112 underdogs. Which magically is now +194. And of course the Liberty were around -135 and now are around -235.

Whoever had that knowledge and HAMMERED the Liberty before it was announced that Wilson won’t be playing got 20 or 30% EV. Still no mention of her not playing on the sites my ‘is Aja Wilson playing’ query direct me to.

Nothing is impossible in the shady world of sports betting, but I’d be stunned if Wilson plays.

Nice boxing parlay, lines from Seneca Niagara Sports Book, card July 4 in Cleveland.

Parlay: -109
a) Fight to NOT go the Distance
Bruce Carrington vs Rene Palacios: -186

b) Mason ML
Abdullah Mason vs Albert Bell: -400

Just noticed that I am NOT getting any ‘crowns’ that I used to get from DraftKings. I scoured the site and found out why…. They no longer give them to us ‘lowest tier’ players at all! You have to make it yo the second level before they give you the points which can be redeemed for cash (which has a 1x playthrough, so essentially cash). I am accruing tier credits. But I don’t think I’ll make it to ‘silver’ by the time I go back to Florida.

I have a longshot golf bet that is live today. Jackson Suber to win. He only trails by a stroke. But LOTS of golfers within a few shots of the lead.