Sports betting chatter
Interesting yesterday. There was a two leg parlay ‘boosted’ to around +350. It seemed way too low. I checked other sites and unboosted it was around +450, fair probably +575.
I’m wondering if they put this one as a ‘test’ to see how many (and WHO) would actually make that bet?
I was able to get Thunder -15.5 for my regular boosted parlays. Those type bets are iffy as there are strange things that happen in garbage time.
$1000 to win $65 on Thunder?
Usually these boosts change a -120 to a +120 or something like that.
Other bets today or tomorrow…
Lakers at -127. (Fair -165)
LAFC at +130. (Fair +115)
Oilers at -121. (Fair -150)
Sabres/Stars at +222. (Fair +204)
Plus a half dozen or so 3 leg boosted parlays.
Quote: SOOPOOI haven’t been posting much here for fear of ‘ruining someone’s source of income’. But today HR is giving out some free money I think they want everyone to share in. Giving you Celtics at better than even money (+110). I figure fair odds on them are around -450.
Usually these boosts change a -120 to a +120 or something like that.
Other bets today or tomorrow…
Lakers at -127. (Fair -165)
LAFC at +130. (Fair +115)
Oilers at -121. (Fair -150)
Sabres/Stars at +222. (Fair +204)
Plus a half dozen or so 3 leg boosted parlays.
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Celtics lost! I often would hedge taking 76ers +11.5 but didn’t as bet was only $10.
Oilers won limited to $25
Sabres parlay lost limited to $50
Plus all my other parlays lost so bad….
amount to win 200/860*3*1.20 = 0.837
amount to lose 660/860 = 0.767
the difference is a positive 0.07, 7% PA
The problem with that is I would have expected to be having a more clear case of +EV in my results instead of breaking even … perhaps I’m just running not so good. I can’t say “running bad” to where I’m losing bankroll
But what if the HE is 10%?
If you win 45/200 times and get paid 3 units, and lose one unit the 155 times you lose, I get that being a 10% HE:
We go back to amount to win times chances of winning minus chances of losing times amount to lose.
which is 45/200*3-155/200 = -0.1 with no boost
but boosted 20%, 45/200*3*1.2 makes probability factored boosted wins 0.81
amount to lose factored with chances to lose, -155/200=-0.775
0.810-0.775=0.035 or 3.5% PA
I guess I just need to have faith
any input much appreciated
Quote:… What I've noticed is that when they decide to tighten up 25% boosts they put the odds longer and longer, I'm seeing +300 as the min a lot now. This tells me it matters but I was in the dark. Finally I decided to check it out. I'd say a moderate HE on a +300 bet is 7% and could easily be more.
My limitations had me doing trial and error, alas, but I came up with chances of winning 200/860, which is 1/4.3, makes an approx 7% edge for the house on a +300 bet
200/860*3 - 660/860 = -0.0697
new factored payoff with boost is 200/860*3*1.25 = 0.87
factored amount to lose 660/860 = 0.76
PA amount of +0.11
I was ready to say that stinks but I now realize that's 11%. So I am not getting the answer as to why +300 is supposed to be better for the house, maybe they just like the increase in variance, which I can testify can get 'running bad' results that get old.
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The ‘single’ boosts are still GREAT; easy as pie to detect the +EV. Today I have a PERFECT one! Canadians at +100. Fair around -120. A bet I either unhappily make $25, or happily lose $25 for a Sabres win.
My longshot PGA bet is Chris Gotterup.
And LONGGGGGGSHOT is Aldrich Potgeiter.
Edit. Adding (unlikely but possibly +EV bet) on soccer. Western Hemisphere sweep. USA, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil to win their groups. I’m getting 30-1. No way for me to really tell but I guesstimated at 25-1 as fair odds. USA is in really easy group. Brazil is big favorite in theirs. Mexico slight favorite but Canada decent underdog.
Got Cavs at+198 with a ‘guaranteed win if you go up 5’ at any point. They did. Then proceeded to stink. That was very +EV.
Today can bet an MLS bet on a winner that if it ends up in a tie you get a free bet back. Very +EV as well.
A few 50% profit boosts which are very +EV, but most seem to be 20 or 25% which are barely if at all +EV.
AND the better ones I’m limited to usually $10 and occasionally $20.
Quote: odiousgambitCan't you use HR in NY?
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NY is not one of the 10 states HR operates in.
This is because of baseball scoring and that the game ends as soon as a 1 run crosses the plate in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th or later. The exception is a home run where all of the runs count. Thus there will always be more games with odd scores than even, and it's a significant effect.
So what you're really betting on is that the game won't be tied in the bottom of the 9th, i.e a slugfest/blowout.
Am I missing something?
Judge today was an example of a windfall with this strategy. I didn't bet the game but still would have won due to the 2-run walkoff HR.
Offhand, I'd think the ghost runner would mess with that bet.
Quote: billryanGot it. I misunderstood what the bet was. The Yankees played six extra-inning games last year, at home.
Offhand, I'd think the ghost runner would mess with that bet.
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Oh that gross rule does, but maybe not as much as you think because a frequent outcome is both teams score the ghost runner, then it just gets pushed to the next inning.
It does make it easier for a game to end on a one-run single, but it also makes it easier for a game to end on a two-run HR, preserving the Even total.
But if the game is going to be 13-3 or even 13-4 after 6, I feel pretty good about having +125 or +130 on Even.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: billryanGot it. I misunderstood what the bet was. The Yankees played six extra-inning games last year, at home.
Offhand, I'd think the ghost runner would mess with that bet.
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Oh that gross rule does, but maybe not as much as you think because a frequent outcome is both teams score the ghost runner, then it just gets pushed to the next inning.
It does make it easier for a game to end on a one-run single, but it also makes it easier for a game to end on a two-run HR, preserving the Even total.
But if the game is going to be 13-3 or even 13-4 after 6, I feel pretty good about having +125 or +130 on Even.
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The most common result is a one run victory (odd). Next is a 2 run victory (even) Next is a 3 run victory. (Odd). Etc.
This results in a huge difference for odd/even totals.
58.8 % odd
41.2% even.
He was down 2 sets, and 5-1 in the third set. You could get +10000 on him to win. And it was -500000 to bet on Sinner to win. That’s $5k to win $1.
Sinner got a cramp (supposedly) and lost. It will be super interesting to see if there was any unusual betting activity.
Quote: SOOPOOHoly cow. Cerundolo upsets Sinner. He was around a 20-1 underdog prematch.
He was down 2 sets, and 5-1 in the third set. You could get +10000 on him to win. And it was -500000 to bet on Sinner to win. That’s $5k to win $1.
Sinner got a cramp (supposedly) and lost. It will be super interesting to see if there was any unusual betting activity.
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Wow, I was watching it this morning and he was up big in the second set when I turned it off.
NBA players get in on a fix on prop bets
really, really disgusting
from the link:
"Rozier is accused of conspiring with gamblers to leave a game early, citing a lingering lower leg injury, so they could cash in on more than $250,000 in bets that his points, assists and other totals would be lower than what the sportsbooks had set as betting lines.
The new indictment against Rozier was filed within hours of the guilty pleas by Fairley, who goes by the name “Vezino Locks" on Instagram. As part of his plea, Fairley admitted to prosecutors’ allegations that he used insider information to get an edge when betting on NBA, NCAA and Chinese Professional Basketball League games — including paying Rozier’s longtime friend $100,000 in exchange for a tip that Rozier was going to leave a game early.”
Fairley's attorney Eric Siegle said his client “deeply regrets and is ashamed of his conduct.”"
.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nba/article/nba-player-terry-rozier-hit-with-new-bribery-charges-in-sports-gambling-sting/
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The four legs were Michigan winning the NCAA, the US Men winning hockey gold, and the Knicks and Spurs winning their conferences.
Quote: billryanDraftKings is reporting a $1.7 million payout to a guy who placed a $ 2,500 four-way parlay in February that had the Knicks meeting the Spurs in the finals. The bettor turned down a $ 500,000-plus payout before the Spurs' Game 7 win.
The four legs were Michigan winning the NCAA, the US Men winning hockey gold, and the Knicks and Spurs winning their conferences.
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He was smart for passing on the buyout. I believe the Spurs were only 2.5 dogs in the game so giving up $1.7 million for $500k seems silly. $750k-$800k may have been fair.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanDraftKings is reporting a $1.7 million payout to a guy who placed a $ 2,500 four-way parlay in February that had the Knicks meeting the Spurs in the finals. The bettor turned down a $ 500,000-plus payout before the Spurs' Game 7 win.
The four legs were Michigan winning the NCAA, the US Men winning hockey gold, and the Knicks and Spurs winning their conferences.
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He was smart for passing on the buyout. I believe the Spurs were only 2.5 dogs in the game so giving up $1.7 million for $500k seems silly. $750k-$800k may have been fair.
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The Spurs were road favorites last night, by 3 or more.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanDraftKings is reporting a $1.7 million payout to a guy who placed a $ 2,500 four-way parlay in February that had the Knicks meeting the Spurs in the finals. The bettor turned down a $ 500,000-plus payout before the Spurs' Game 7 win.
The four legs were Michigan winning the NCAA, the US Men winning hockey gold, and the Knicks and Spurs winning their conferences.
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He was smart for passing on the buyout. I believe the Spurs were only 2.5 dogs in the game so giving up $1.7 million for $500k seems silly. $750k-$800k may have been fair.
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The Spurs were road favorites last night, by 3 or more.
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Incorrect. Having made multiple bets on the game, the Thunder were favorites. Most of my bets had them as 3.5 point favorites. You need a new AI assistant.
I do have an early season bet on Spurs to win Championship at 17-1. I think I had to make this $5 bet to get a free bet or something.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: billryanDraftKings is reporting a $1.7 million payout to a guy who placed a $ 2,500 four-way parlay in February that had the Knicks meeting the Spurs in the finals. The bettor turned down a $ 500,000-plus payout before the Spurs' Game 7 win.
The four legs were Michigan winning the NCAA, the US Men winning hockey gold, and the Knicks and Spurs winning their conferences.
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He was smart for passing on the buyout. I believe the Spurs were only 2.5 dogs in the game so giving up $1.7 million for $500k seems silly. $750k-$800k may have been fair.
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The Spurs were road favorites last night, by 3 or more.
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Not at Hard Rock, which site did you bet it at?
Quote: https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/
("Last Updatred May 31 2026, 1:41 PM")
BOOK ............ SA / OKC
Bet365...........+3.5/-3.5
MGM..............+3.5/-3.5
DraftKings....+3.5/-3.5
Caesars......... +3/-3
FanDuel........+3.5/-3.5
HardRock.....+4.5/-4.5
Fanatics........+2.5/-2.5
BetRivers......+3.5/-3.5
When I chastised Alex for being wrong, she told me it was part of her sassy personality. It seems that if you want reliable information, you need to set Alexa for the brief style.
From AI's response to my query about being shown that it has clearly been a no-good lying snake AI:Quote: billryanI am not a sports bettor, and don't think I've visited any of them. As I was making the post, I asked Alexa what the spread was.
When I chastised Alex for being wrong, she told me it was part of her sassy personality. It seems that if you want reliable information, you need to set Alexa for the brief style.
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Quote: AI (Google's Gemini)Wnen informed that it is wrong, AI will often apologize for the mistake,...
...<SNIP>...
...however..
...it may continue to repeat it...
...pointing out a mistake often triggers it to invent facts to justify...
..AI will often double down, invent false justifications, or agree with you regardless of the truth....
Quote: SOOPOOMy FD account just gave me a $194 free bet. I think it might be because I bet $5 on someone to hit a HR and he did. And free bets are divided up amongst those who are correct. I won around $20 on the $5 bet. If the free bets are this big the +EV is of course massive. You were only allowed to pick one player to qualify for the free bets
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Nice, I got some big bonus bets during the football season for a similar promo (they had it for the anytime TD scorer on the Thursday night games; they had 2 jackpots per game; one for the first TD and one for the last TD. I bet it every week)
It's an interesting promo; I think you want to bet someone who is not going to be a very popular bet but still has a decent chance to score.
Quote: billryanI am not a sports bettor, and don't think I've visited any of them. As I was making the post, I asked Alexa what the spread was.
When I chastised Alex for being wrong, she told me it was part of her sassy personality. It seems that if you want reliable information, you need to set Alexa for the brief style.
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I have not made a hockey bet this year but I still monitor the lines for every game each day.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanI am not a sports bettor, and don't think I've visited any of them. As I was making the post, I asked Alexa what the spread was.
When I chastised Alex for being wrong, she told me it was part of her sassy personality. It seems that if you want reliable information, you need to set Alexa for the brief style.
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I have not made a hockey bet this year but I still monitor the lines for every game each day.
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I’m probably fooling myself into thinking it’s +EV, but I love Hurricanes game 1/Hurricanes series parlay at +150.
I have one Knicks bet I like a lot. Mitchell Robinson over 3.5 points. If he’s in and Wemby isn’t he should get a stuff or two from offensive rebounds. If he’s in and Wemby is in Wemby will be roaming the floor ignoring Robinson who may get an alley pop dunk or two. And then there is the ‘hack a Robinson’ strategy, in which they intentionally foul him repeatedly. So he may sink 2 or 3 free throws out of the 6 he’ll attempt.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichQuote: billryanI am not a sports bettor, and don't think I've visited any of them. As I was making the post, I asked Alexa what the spread was.
When I chastised Alex for being wrong, she told me it was part of her sassy personality. It seems that if you want reliable information, you need to set Alexa for the brief style.
link to original post
I have not made a hockey bet this year but I still monitor the lines for every game each day.
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I’m probably fooling myself into thinking it’s +EV, but I love Hurricanes game 1/Hurricanes series parlay at +150.
I have one Knicks bet I like a lot. Mitchell Robinson over 3.5 points. If he’s in and Wemby isn’t he should get a stuff or two from offensive rebounds. If he’s in and Wemby is in Wemby will be roaming the floor ignoring Robinson who may get an alley pop dunk or two. And then there is the ‘hack a Robinson’ strategy, in which they intentionally foul him repeatedly. So he may sink 2 or 3 free throws out of the 6 he’ll attempt.
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I like hurricanes for the series but I think laying -150 is too much for game one.
I will be rooting for the Knights because it is the only team in sports my wife will watch with me. I hope it goes seven games no matter who wins.
Quote: DRichQuote: billryanI am not a sports bettor, and don't think I've visited any of them. As I was making the post, I asked Alexa what the spread was.
When I chastised Alex for being wrong, she told me it was part of her sassy personality. It seems that if you want reliable information, you need to set Alexa for the brief style.
link to original post
I have not made a hockey bet this year but I still monitor the lines for every game each day.
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I almost completely ignore the regular season, and have no interest in the lines on any game.
I'd like to see SA win in seven games, but I wouldn't be upset if the Knicks win.
Robinson had a surgery that usually has a two or three weeks recovery period. If he's not effective, the Nix are in trouble.
Quote: DRichCarolina Hurricanes absolutely dominated the Golden Knights in that first period. VGK is lucky to be only down by one.
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I was thinking the same thing, and then Vegas scored. Carolina seemed a step faster all period.
Quote: billryanQuote: DRichCarolina Hurricanes absolutely dominated the Golden Knights in that first period. VGK is lucky to be only down by one.
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I was thinking the same thing, and then Vegas scored. Carolina seemed a step faster all period.
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And then the rest of the game happened…..
I had one bet that won…. but I’m not as happy as I should be! Got + odds on Canes to score in all 3 periods, boosted. Almost pulled trigger on both teams to score in all 3 periods at a large multiple…. But chickened out…
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanQuote: DRichCarolina Hurricanes absolutely dominated the Golden Knights in that first period. VGK is lucky to be only down by one.
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I was thinking the same thing, and then Vegas scored. Carolina seemed a step faster all period.
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And then the rest of the game happened…..
I had one bet that won…. but I’m not as happy as I should be! Got + odds on Canes to score in all 3 periods, boosted. Almost pulled trigger on both teams to score in all 3 periods at a large multiple…. But chickened out…
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Other than the NHL All-Star game I can not think of a time when I would expect both teams to score in all three quarters. I wonder how many times that happened this year in the NHL?
It was my first look at the Hurricanes, and I was very impressed most of the first period.
And limit now $100.
Found +180 (boosts to +225)
Other site got -185
Found +138 (boosts to +173)
Other site got -140
One I have + odds on a -9.5 WNBA bet
And on ‘other site’ I have +10. I win a few $ no matter what and a ‘big’ win if exactly 10.
Two others similar. Not tons of money but it’s free money. Plus each of the 5 ‘other sites’ bets look like regular -EV bets bettering my offers from them. Yes, I’m giving up EV with my ‘other sites’ bets. But getting free money is soothing.
Nicks won!
Quote: ArmageddenWow
Nicks won!
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Jalen Brunson started slowly but in the 2nd half there were times that he took over the game. Karl-Anthony Towns was outstanding. Wemby was good but not great; he seemed to disappear at times. Dylan Harper impressed me - why doesn't he start and play more minutes?
Knicks answered the doubters. I wonder whether the Spurs got fatigued in the 2nd half due to their difficult series with the Thunder.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: ArmageddenWow
Nicks won!
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Jalen Brunson started slowly but in the 2nd half there were times that he took over the game. Karl-Anthony Towns was outstanding. Wemby was good but not great; he seemed to disappear at times. Dylan Harper impressed me - why doesn't he start and play more minutes?
Knicks answered the doubters. I wonder whether the Spurs got fatigued in the 2nd half due to their difficult series with the Thunder.
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The Spurs looked great in the first quarter but were outplayed in the final three quarters. The Spurs shooting was horrendous and will probably normalize over the next few games.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: ArmageddenWow
Nicks won!
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Jalen Brunson started slowly but in the 2nd half there were times that he took over the game. Karl-Anthony Towns was outstanding. Wemby was good but not great; he seemed to disappear at times. Dylan Harper impressed me - why doesn't he start and play more minutes?
Knicks answered the doubters. I wonder whether the Spurs got fatigued in the 2nd half due to their difficult series with the Thunder.
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Great analysis.
Totally agree on Dylan Harper.
I and Harper are New Jersey boys and Rutgers Alumni.😉
Harper looked incredibly confident out there.
It's surprising he isn't getting more minutes given that spark he provides off the bench.
Hopefully, the coaching staff gives him a bigger role as the series goes on.
Brunson (Jersey boy too) really stepped up when it mattered most in the second half.
It’s amazing to see Karl-Anthony Towns fitting in so well and delivering on the big stage.
Twelve straight playoff wins is an unbelievable run for the Knicks!
