Sports betting chatter

Newest +EV bets are the two leg NHL ones. They pick two favorites, then tend to give +50 or do more than fair odds. And I can get $50 down instead of the $25 limit on single boosts.

Interesting yesterday. There was a two leg parlay ‘boosted’ to around +350. It seemed way too low. I checked other sites and unboosted it was around +450, fair probably +575.

I’m wondering if they put this one as a ‘test’ to see how many (and WHO) would actually make that bet?

that kind of thing stinks. I seldom catch them doing that exactly. I've seen them make a "boost special" when investigation shows they had a line that needed to move anyway to something more favorable than the morning line due to competition

You can get around -1500 on the Thunder over the Lakers tonight on a ‘prediction market’. I can’t envision a realistic scenario in which the Lakers minus LeBron, Luka, Austin Reaves, and Marcus Smart can win. Like if you do 1000 simulations the Lakers win zero times.
I was able to get Thunder -15.5 for my regular boosted parlays. Those type bets are iffy as there are strange things that happen in garbage time.
$1000 to win $65 on Thunder?

I haven’t been posting much here for fear of ‘ruining someone’s source of income’. But today HR is giving out some free money I think they want everyone to share in. Giving you Celtics at better than even money (+110). I figure fair odds on them are around -450.

Usually these boosts change a -120 to a +120 or something like that.

Other bets today or tomorrow…

Lakers at -127. (Fair -165)
LAFC at +130. (Fair +115)
Oilers at -121. (Fair -150)
Sabres/Stars at +222. (Fair +204)

Plus a half dozen or so 3 leg boosted parlays.

No such to be found for me. A decent but high variance soccer parlay.. not sgp.. but$5 limit ...in other news DK consistent as is b365... with strong bet size limits

Quote: SOOPOO

I haven’t been posting much here for fear of ‘ruining someone’s source of income’. But today HR is giving out some free money I think they want everyone to share in. Giving you Celtics at better than even money (+110). I figure fair odds on them are around -450.

Usually these boosts change a -120 to a +120 or something like that.

Other bets today or tomorrow…

Lakers at -127. (Fair -165)
LAFC at +130. (Fair +115)
Oilers at -121. (Fair -150)
Sabres/Stars at +222. (Fair +204)

Plus a half dozen or so 3 leg boosted parlays.
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Celtics lost! I often would hedge taking 76ers +11.5 but didn’t as bet was only $10.

Oilers won limited to $25

Sabres parlay lost limited to $50


Plus all my other parlays lost so bad….

I’m getting a daily 20% boost on any bet any market that’s +300 or better. I seem to be treading water with this as if the 20% merely wipes out the HE, but I expected it to be more substantially +EV. So I returned to the below where I was crunching the numbers on a 25% boost [not 20%], while assuming 7% HE without the boost. I typically use a 3-way bet and will find plenty to choose from offering +300 or +310 on the tie, which has worked out for me in the past. Some AI I found did confirm that 7% HE is about as high as you should expect that to go. So, see below for where I get numbers, using that scenario with 20% boost and one unit I get,

amount to win 200/860*3*1.20 = 0.837
amount to lose 660/860 = 0.767
the difference is a positive 0.07, 7% PA

The problem with that is I would have expected to be having a more clear case of +EV in my results instead of breaking even … perhaps I’m just running not so good. I can’t say “running bad” to where I’m losing bankroll

But what if the HE is 10%?
If you win 45/200 times and get paid 3 units, and lose one unit the 155 times you lose, I get that being a 10% HE:
We go back to amount to win times chances of winning minus chances of losing times amount to lose.
which is 45/200*3-155/200 = -0.1 with no boost

but boosted 20%, 45/200*3*1.2 makes probability factored boosted wins 0.81
amount to lose factored with chances to lose, -155/200=-0.775
0.810-0.775=0.035 or 3.5% PA

I guess I just need to have faith
any input much appreciated

Quote:

… What I've noticed is that when they decide to tighten up 25% boosts they put the odds longer and longer, I'm seeing +300 as the min a lot now. This tells me it matters but I was in the dark. Finally I decided to check it out. I'd say a moderate HE on a +300 bet is 7% and could easily be more.

My limitations had me doing trial and error, alas, but I came up with chances of winning 200/860, which is 1/4.3, makes an approx 7% edge for the house on a +300 bet
200/860*3 - 660/860 = -0.0697

new factored payoff with boost is 200/860*3*1.25 = 0.87
factored amount to lose 660/860 = 0.76
PA amount of +0.11
I was ready to say that stinks but I now realize that's 11%. So I am not getting the answer as to why +300 is supposed to be better for the house, maybe they just like the increase in variance, which I can testify can get 'running bad' results that get old.
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20% profit boost on 3 leg parlay minimum +300 tends to be barely +EV, if at all. I’m getting 33% which is better of course, but still only a small edge for me.
The ‘single’ boosts are still GREAT; easy as pie to detect the +EV. Today I have a PERFECT one! Canadians at +100. Fair around -120. A bet I either unhappily make $25, or happily lose $25 for a Sabres win.

My longshot PGA bet is Chris Gotterup.
And LONGGGGGGSHOT is Aldrich Potgeiter.

Edit. Adding (unlikely but possibly +EV bet) on soccer. Western Hemisphere sweep. USA, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil to win their groups. I’m getting 30-1. No way for me to really tell but I guesstimated at 25-1 as fair odds. USA is in really easy group. Brazil is big favorite in theirs. Mexico slight favorite but Canada decent underdog.