Baccarat Side Bet Counting
Tonight I am up late working on a website. It basically analyzes a shoe of cards and tells you the expected EV for various baccarat side bets.
From my research, it seems like some side bets out there are extremely vulnerable to card counting. I am hoping that my website can be used by casinos to catch card counters, and perhaps it can also be used by inventors to test baccarat side bets to see how countable they might be. Does anyone have any advice on how I could market my program? Would anyone be interested in collaborating to sell this to casinos?
I can also add blackjack side bets, which might be the next step - are there any other games that use side bets and a shoe that I should look into? I assume that Casino War's tie bet is +EV less than 1/1,000,000 rounds
I am not posting this website here because I worked hard on it and don't want people to copy it. I already gave you Table Games Academy for free lol.
Game designers and marketers aren't that interested either, and will be even less interested in hiring the guy running around yelling "Hey everybody- you know this bet is countable!" Does it increase the drop and the hold on the table? All else is commentary.
The practicalities of counting, especially high variance stuff like sidebets, are not straightforward and you need some experience to recognize what is actually practicable and worthwhile relative to the other things you could be doing in the casino. Sometimes the most mathematically powerful count is not the best, and for various reasons. This is also why I do not teach such things to rookie players. They need to build up their skill set until they can discover and analyze a game, and create a winning system on their own before they are ready to go out and play stuff like that.
Perhaps to continue your gaming education, you should learn counting and see what life is like on the other side of the table. You live near Pennsylvania which has some of the best BJ available for counting. Once you have taken the holy vows (none of which conflict with any extant religious principles) and acknowledge the fearsome penalties for violation, the Bright Secrets will be conferred upon you and you can begin. Then at the end of a night you will walk out of the casino with a belly full of whiskey, a thousand or so $ more than you walked in with, and a random girl you picked up that you will rail all night in the Motel 6 where you are staying, and go back tomorrow and do it all again. Maybe you would like that better? It can be rough, but you will be free, and the limits to your success will be exactly your limits, and not dependent on some unworthy person's opinion of you and your work.
Quote: harrisHello forum!
Tonight I am up late working on a website. It basically analyzes a shoe of cards and tells you the expected EV for various baccarat side bets.
From my research, it seems like some side bets out there are extremely vulnerable to card counting.
Be very careful about making this kind of statement. It makes you look amateurish.
You cannot simply run a simulation and look at the edge and conclude there is a great advantage there. An AP has to take into consideration variance, speed of play, practicality (jump bets draw attention) etc. There are no "extremely vulnerable" side-bets generally speaking in real-world conditions.Much of the gain requires computer usage - which assuming you want to run the risk of that is far better employed using forms of shuffle analysis.
Almost certainly any casino using your tech would lose money by increasing shuffle time to thwart imaginary card counters at the expense of everyone else. The drop in hold % would be obvious in a short space of time and your name will be dirt in the industry and it will take a long time to recover. This happened to Eliot Jacobson. This isn't the 1990's you can't get away with scamming people about non-existent threats.
In order to make a proposition to a modern business you have to deliver a cost-benefit analysis as to how paying your service will yield profits in the short term. You have not done that. To do that you would actually be needing to say the direct opposite: deeper penetration and fewer countermeasures would yield much greater profits for casinos.
At least one of the Majors has been aware of this sort of thing for years now, and has cut away a full deck and a half such that you barely get 65 hands out of the 8 deck shoe a lot of the time. But there remain some Majors who cut away only 16 cards which is the old school standard.
If you add the ability to track every card in the deck, what has come, what is left, and even tracking clumps, that changes the whole game.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyGame designers and marketers aren't that interested either, and will be even less interested in hiring the guy running around yelling "Hey everybody- you know this bet is countable!" Does it increase the drop and the hold on the table? All else is commentary.
Yeah that makes sense and it's also why I wouldn't publicly reveal which bets I thought were countable except maybe talking about it with the inventors. Some people who work for casinos told me that baccarat side bet counting is a rising threat, which is what made me interested in this.
Additionally, unlike blackjack, nobody at the casino will question you if you are writing down notes on a piece of paper. You can just tell them you're "following the road" or something. This makes counting much more feasible in my opinion.
Quote:The practicalities of counting, especially high variance stuff like sidebets, are not straightforward and you need some experience to recognize what is actually practicable and worthwhile relative to the other things you could be doing in the casino. Sometimes the most mathematically powerful count is not the best, and for various reasons. This is also why I do not teach such things to rookie players. They need to build up their skill set until they can discover and analyze a game, and create a winning system on their own before they are ready to go out and play stuff like that.
Indeed. I will say that the side bets I'm analyzing are significantly more countable than the more well-known Dragon 8 and Panda 7. But I haven't developed optimal/easy ways to count some of them yet.
Quote:Perhaps to continue your gaming education, you should learn counting and see what life is like on the other side of the table. You live near Pennsylvania which has some of the best BJ available for counting.
Yeah, if I had a car, things would be really different in my life and I would have a lot more opportunities to go to exotic lands such as Pennsylvania :D
I have done some minor advantage play but I do not currently have a large bankroll that I'm willing to risk - maybe in the Fall or something I could get more into gambling (I am also trying to learn Poker well).
Quote: ScarneyTo do that you would actually be needing to say the direct opposite: deeper penetration and fewer countermeasures would yield much greater profits for casinos.
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Baccarat card counter detected
Quote: harrisAdditionally, unlike blackjack, nobody at the casino will question you if you are writing down notes on a piece of paper. You can just tell them you're "following the road" or something. This makes counting much more feasible in my opinion.
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Sometimes I wonder if anyone notices this sort of thing, because I keep different counts running for different reasons on the score card, but if anyone is looking they probably only notice the usual tracking of B/P/T.
Most of the tracking I do is in my head, I don't have to write down anything for most of it, but writing down some counts helps to remind to take action on what is happening.
Quote: ScarneyBe very careful about making this kind of statement. It makes you look amateurish.
Fair
Quote:Almost certainly any casino using your tech would lose money by increasing shuffle time to thwart imaginary card counters at the expense of everyone else. The drop in hold % would be obvious in a short space of time and your name will be dirt in the industry and it will take a long time to recover. This happened to Eliot Jacobson. This isn't the 1990's you can't get away with scamming people about non-existent threats.
A bit hostile but it's not like I'm telling casinos how to use the technology. Even if they did shuffling more when the count is high, I don't understand why it would decrease hold % so much. Casinos already use the same type of technology to stop blackjack card counting today, I don't see why this would be so different.
Quote:In order to make a proposition to a modern business you have to deliver a cost-benefit analysis as to how paying your service will yield profits in the short term. You have not done that.
I am not sure how common baccarat card counting is and I would be surprised if anyone knew other than some casino executives. So it would completely depend on that. I do not mind selling my system for a relatively cheap price since I am a relative newcomer in the industry and since this is solving a new type of problem.
Quote: MDawgQuote: harrisAdditionally, unlike blackjack, nobody at the casino will question you if you are writing down notes on a piece of paper. You can just tell them you're "following the road" or something. This makes counting much more feasible in my opinion.
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Sometimes I wonder if anyone notices this sort of thing, because I keep different counts running for different reasons on the score card, but if anyone is looking they probably only notice the usual tracking of B/P/T.
Most of the tracking I do is in my head, I don't have to write down anything for most of it, but writing down some counts helps to remind to take action on what is happening.
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I don't like to use anything at the table. It ends up getting in my way and slowing me down.
The only exception to that was this place with a race book and a hand shuffled blackjack game, where I would bring a racing program to the table and make notes picking horses as I was playing. Usually in a 13-horse race where I would go through the possibilities, picking 4 horses for the Superfecta.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeypicking 4 horses for the Superfecta.
the takeout on the Superfecta is between 20 and 30% depending on the track
ouch!!!
I tried the ponies for a while
I couldn't beat their takeout
I didn't lose much - I could cut into the takeout - but not overcome it - very, very difficult - not many do - not many even claim to beat the ponies
.
edit: or blackjack side bet counting?
Quote: harrisAlso I want to say that it's not very difficult to make a bet that's hard to count and if you have a simple side bet I will help you test it for free. There definitely are places where people exploit side bets, for example in this video. If you are an avid Harris fan, you would know I posted about the same side bet still being available in another country.
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Yes, there are baccarat bets that are hard to count. They're called the "Banker" and "Player" bet.
As far as the other bets on the the felt, there are plenty of people who play them. Maybe 0.1% of the people playing them can play them with an advantage. There is no reason, besides an Axis II personality disorder or being really bad at math, why a casino would want to risk turning off the 99.9% of people who play it with a 5-10% house advantage to ensure that 0.1% who can play it with a 2-5% advantage don't walk away winners.
No casino has ever been bankrupted by players winning too much. Lots of them have been bankrupted by players getting bored with the games, disgusted by the nickel-and-diming and not going there anymore. In your interactions with casino management, you may have noticed they are not exactly intellectual giants. Many of them do not realize that the only reason for their industry to exist is to make people happy, and that the people can be happy and lose money at the same time, as long as you treat them well and don't get too greedy. The glory days of Vegas were built on single zero roulette, straight craps, and blackjack with one dealer dealing one deck of cards. They made so much money that way they could afford to give everything else away to players.
If I were to estimate which are the biggest sources of loss to casinos, I would rate food & beverage waste, slip & fall lawsuits from patrons, and HR complaints as larger than the profits of card counters.
From what I understand though Erlick ended up losing all his millions in Vegas and becoming a Canadian Uber driver.
Quote: Scarney
This happened to Eliot Jacobson. This isn't the 1990's you can't get away with scamming people about non-existent threats.
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Eliot is professor of side bets. He wrote a book about these side bets, but I haven’t got a copy yet. Is there a pdf copy somewhere I can download?
Quote:Yes, there are baccarat bets that are hard to count. They're called the "Banker" and "Player" bet.
Lol, true
Quote:There is no reason, besides an Axis II personality disorder or being really bad at math, why a casino would want to risk turning off the 99.9% of people who play it with a 5-10% house advantage to ensure that 0.1% who can play it with a 2-5% advantage don't walk away winners.
I have heard of casinos taking away new games if players were winning too much at first [due to volatility], or side bets being taken out due to their countability. Anyways, the casino doesn't remove blackjack despite card counters - they just use technology and surveillance to catch and remove the card counters. The same could probably true about baccarat side bet counting.
Quote:If I were to estimate which are the biggest sources of loss to casinos, I would rate food & beverage waste, slip & fall lawsuits from patrons, and HR complaints as larger than the profits of card counters.
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That might be true, but there will always be food waste, lawsuits, and complaints. However card counting is different - let me give an example.
Let's say I pay security guards to watch over my apartment every day. It is expensive and nobody tries to steal from me. So one day I decide to stop paying them. Word gets out on the street that my home is unprotected, and within a few days everything is stolen.
Anti-card counting measures don't catch many people or save much money - but if they didn't exist the casino would be losing an astronomical amount.
Quote: MDawgFrom what I understand though Erlick ended up losing all his millions in Vegas and becoming a Canadian Uber driver.
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From what I've heard, he drives Uber but not because he has to, and he stopped gambling in Vegas because of tragedies in his personal life.
Quote: harrisQuote:Yes, there are baccarat bets that are hard to count. They're called the "Banker" and "Player" bet.
Lol, trueQuote:There is no reason, besides an Axis II personality disorder or being really bad at math, why a casino would want to risk turning off the 99.9% of people who play it with a 5-10% house advantage to ensure that 0.1% who can play it with a 2-5% advantage don't walk away winners.
I have heard of casinos taking away new games if players were winning too much at first [due to volatility], or side bets being taken out due to their countability. Anyways, the casino doesn't remove blackjack despite card counters - they just use technology and surveillance to catch and remove the card counters. The same could probably true about baccarat side bet counting.Quote:If I were to estimate which are the biggest sources of loss to casinos, I would rate food & beverage waste, slip & fall lawsuits from patrons, and HR complaints as larger than the profits of card counters.
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That might be true, but there will always be food waste, lawsuits, and complaints. However card counting is different - let me give an example.
Let's say I pay security guards to watch over my apartment every day. It is expensive and nobody tries to steal from me. So one day I decide to stop paying them. Word gets out on the street that my home is unprotected, and within a few days everything is stolen.
Anti-card counting measures don't catch many people or save much money - but if they didn't exist the casino would be losing an astronomical amount.
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OK, I see you already have your mind made up. You've been going to casinos for maybe a year now, you've taken a bus trip to Atlantic City, what could the guys who have been in this business for a few decades possibly know?
That's an interesting analogy, about an apartment, and it makes my point. I don't have any security guards watching my apartment. Nobody's watching my car either. Everyone can see that. So why aren't people breaking in?
The reason why is there just aren't that many people who do that sort of thing in our society, and there are a lot of apartments. Nothing makes mine stand out, so the chances of a burglar even taking the trouble to come to my apartment are very small. Insurance company actuaries know what they are talking about and they have even put a number to this: it costs $10-15 a month for a renter's policy in this market, and that covers not only a burglary but the roof leaking, all my stuff getting smoked up in a fire, pipes bursting etc. That's all the risk really is, whether I have a security guard or not, and that price allows for profit for the insurance company. I don't need to pay for anything else. If I lived in Mogadishu or Johannesburg or Port-au-Prince the economics would be different. But when living in America, if I were to act like I was in a Third World dystopia and put up barbed wire, bollards, hire security guards, any protection against burglary much beyond a good lock from the hardware store and a renter's policy, people would say I am not behaving rationally.
Likewise, there aren't that many advantage players, there never will be just because of the skills and ambitions necessary to be a good one, and the house edge on these bets is so high they would need almost everyone playing it to be a good card counter to lose money. That would be as unlikely as living in a neighborhood in the US where almost everyone is a burglar or steals cars. The real protection against advantage play on sidebets is actually the table limits. They are calculated to be high enough to cover the intended action of most casual players, and not so high that an advantage player will find it an attractive thing to target. There is something I can beat in almost every casino in town, but in most cases, due to the parameters of the game including the table limits, I would make more money by going to the personnel office, filling out an application to be the guy who cleans the urinals and spending my workday doing that. Usually there has to be more than one thing I can do at a table simultaneously for it to be worth my while. It has nothing to do with surveillance or active countermeasures, as there usually aren't any. For a casino to panic about that, put people on the payroll to watch out for me, replace the familiar sidebets that players enjoy playing because they feel like they have a good chance to win with lame ones no one is interested in, that's the definition of "penny wise and pound foolish." (Thus it doesn't surprise me when casinos, sensing an opportunity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, can't help themselves and implement such policies!)
Quote: acesideEliot is professor of side bets. He wrote a book about these side bets, but I haven’t got a copy yet. Is there a pdf copy somewhere I can download?
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You can buy a copy for only $25 on Amazon. It is against site policy to enable the pirating of copyrighted books. Warning issued.
Quote: WizardQuote: acesideEliot is professor of side bets. He wrote a book about these side bets, but I haven’t got a copy yet. Is there a pdf copy somewhere I can download?
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You can buy a copy for only $25.
Or you could flush your money straight down the toilet and not have to endure the ramblings of someone who doesn't understand risk properly.
Quote: harris
A bit hostile but it's not like I'm telling casinos how to use the technology. Even if they did shuffling more when the count is high, I don't understand why it would decrease hold % so much. Casinos already use the same type of technology to stop blackjack card counting today, I don't see why this would be so different.
Every hand the casino doesn't deal before shuffling costs them money from every money at the table.
That is a huge, unbelievable waste of money. Millions, probably tens of millions being wasted a year.
Much the same is true of blackjack, except that there are larger numbers of blackjack counters and the ceiling on their wins is higher. Even there the casinos are almost certainly wasting a ton of money,
Baccarat card counters for most practical purposes do not exist. Baccarat tables are more likely to be threatened by the sasquatch.
Quote: ScarneyQuote: WizardQuote: acesideEliot is professor of side bets. He wrote a book about these side bets, but I haven’t got a copy yet. Is there a pdf copy somewhere I can download?
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You can buy a copy for only $25.
Or you could flush your money straight down the toilet and not have to endure the ramblings of someone who doesn't understand risk properly.
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Eliot frequently posted on this forum. If I have a question, I can just ask him by posting here directly. I guess his stuff are all posted online.
Quote: ScarneyOr you could flush your money straight down the toilet and not have to endure the ramblings of someone who doesn't understand risk properly.
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Eliot is still a member in good standing here, although he hasn't posted for a while, as far as I know. That said, three-day suspension for personal insult.
Welcome to the forum.
Quote: ScarneyBaccarat card counters for most practical purposes do not exist. Baccarat tables are more likely to be threatened by the sasquatch.
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Some baccarat side bets are very countable. The Dragon 7 and Panda 8 to name just two. Other advantage plays exist outside of counting. There is no game that is safe from some sort of advantage play.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyOK, I see you already have your mind made up. You've been going to casinos for maybe a year now, you've taken a bus trip to Atlantic City, what could the guys who have been in this business for a few decades possibly know?
Actually I went twice :D The second time was to get approved as an official casino vendor
Harris lore aside, I didn't respond because I am not sure either of us have enough information on how big a threat side bet counting is globally. I have not made my mind up and it's totally possible that you are right - I am starting to discuss it with some casino surveillance professionals and have been getting mixed opinions - I'll let everyone know what I learn in this thread later.
In retrospect, my analogy about protecting my apartment was a really bad analogy. For example, there are probably tens of millions of buildings in New York City, but only one casino with table games.
On a side note: Does anyone reading this forum have experience on the surveillance side of the casino?
Quote: harrisQuote: AutomaticMonkeyOK, I see you already have your mind made up. You've been going to casinos for maybe a year now, you've taken a bus trip to Atlantic City, what could the guys who have been in this business for a few decades possibly know?
Actually I went twice :D The second time was to get approved as an official casino vendor
Harris lore aside, I didn't respond because I am not sure either of us have enough information on how big a threat side bet counting is globally. I have not made my mind up and it's totally possible that you are right - I am starting to discuss it with some casino surveillance professionals and have been getting mixed opinions - I'll let everyone know what I learn in this thread later.
In retrospect, my analogy about protecting my apartment was a really bad analogy. For example, there are probably tens of millions of buildings in New York City, but only one casino with table games.
On a side note: Does anyone reading this forum have experience on the surveillance side of the casino?
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I know people who work in surveillance. From what I understand, they put more effort into finding cheating players (e.g. past posting) than they do card counters. Card counting yields a player advantage of about 2%. Past posting yields a player advantage of 50% (not to mention illegal).
Quote: KevinAAQuote: harrisQuote: AutomaticMonkeyOK, I see you already have your mind made up. You've been going to casinos for maybe a year now, you've taken a bus trip to Atlantic City, what could the guys who have been in this business for a few decades possibly know?
Actually I went twice :D The second time was to get approved as an official casino vendor
Harris lore aside, I didn't respond because I am not sure either of us have enough information on how big a threat side bet counting is globally. I have not made my mind up and it's totally possible that you are right - I am starting to discuss it with some casino surveillance professionals and have been getting mixed opinions - I'll let everyone know what I learn in this thread later.
In retrospect, my analogy about protecting my apartment was a really bad analogy. For example, there are probably tens of millions of buildings in New York City, but only one casino with table games.
On a side note: Does anyone reading this forum have experience on the surveillance side of the casino?
link to original post
I know people who work in surveillance. From what I understand, they put more effort into finding cheating players (e.g. past posting) than they do card counters. Card counting yields a player advantage of about 2%. Past posting yields a player advantage of 50% (not to mention illegal).
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Exactly. A cheat, a corrupt dealer, someone doing theft or vandalism anywhere on the property, all of those things are going to cost the casino more than I cost them.
Then there are all the things that are not crimes against the casino directly but that are really bad for business: stealing from players, craps rail thief, panhandling of players, just being a nuisance that turns people off and makes them not want to come back.
I've considered that the casinos might be better off converting a few surveillance personnel to restroom attendants, to fend off bad behavior in there that could result in a tort. And as far as tort is concerned, how intelligent is it to dispatch your security guards to deal with someone who is not committing a crime? If they see a cheat or thief, they can call the police, they can call Gaming, and those agencies will do the heavy lifting and bear the brunt of the liability if things go bad. But for just a legit AP there's no crime involved so the casino employees are on their own, and I've been backed off in unnecessarily aggressive ways where if I wanted to escalate to the point where we're all rolling around on the floor, I could, and then it's a coin flip how the courts are going to see it.
Quote: harrisHere is a screenshot from my (awesome) website - it has blackjack side bets too now. If you want me to test an idea for a side bet - DM me.
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Eliot had a similar tool like yours on his website. I wonder if you have copied from him.
Quote: KevinAA
I know people who work in surveillance. From what I understand, they put more effort into finding cheating players (e.g. past posting) than they do card counters. Card counting yields a player advantage of about 2%. Past posting yields a player advantage of 50% (not to mention illegal).
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I believe you over estimated the edge of card counting. Nowadays, it is up to 1%. Also, I find some casinos cheat too. They have installed facial recognition cameras to block whoever they do not like from entering their doors.
Quote: acesideEliot had a similar tool like yours on his website. I wonder if you have copied from him.
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I wasn't aware of his tool
Quote: acesideQuote: KevinAA
I know people who work in surveillance. From what I understand, they put more effort into finding cheating players (e.g. past posting) than they do card counters. Card counting yields a player advantage of about 2%. Past posting yields a player advantage of 50% (not to mention illegal).
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I believe you over estimated the edge of card counting. Nowadays, it is up to 1%. Also, I find some casinos cheat too. They have installed facial recognition cameras to block whoever they do not like from entering their doors.
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Facial recognition cameras to catch people who were 86'ed is "cheating"? ???
The answer to both was "yes, many"
Based on his previous work, I am inclined to believe he is the de facto highest authority on this topic, so I have a little more faith in the usefulness of my website.
I can assure you that he is not the highest authority on this. I will not name the others who I believe are more authoritative than him. Except one name that’s in the public domain. James Grosjean.Quote: harrisThis might not settle the debate - but I just emailed Eliot asking if anyone has been banned for side bet counting, and if any AP's are actively doing this.
The answer to both was "yes, many"
Based on his previous work, I am inclined to believe he is the de facto highest authority on this topic, so I have a little more faith in the usefulness of my website.
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I have Eliot’s book and he misses many things on some the games that he talks about.
Quote: harrisI'm going to guess that the majority of people banned from casinos were banned for non-cheating reasons (acting crazy or self-excluding). Restaurants can decide who they want to serve too, so why not casinos. To me, breaking the laws/rules is cheating.
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Depends on the kind of ban, banned by the state gaming authority or banned by the property. Self-exclusion is a whole different matter.
Here's the list of people who have been banned from all Atlantic City casinos by the state gaming authority.
https://www.njoag.gov/about/divisions-and-offices/division-of-gaming-enforcement-home/exclusion-list/
As far as I know, only one of them is an advantage player who was declared (unjustly, in my opinion, because I've used the same technique) to be a cheater. You many notice a number of older men with Italian surnames on the list, and they were excluded from all casinos in NJ before the first one opened because they were known Mafiosi and that was the big concern about casinos back in the 1970s.
There are a lot of actual cheats on this list, slug-passers back from when the machines accepted coins, table game chip thieves too. A lot of the women are there for prostitoo, some for violent crime, drug dealing, but they all were convicted for doing these things in the casinos.
Now each casino and casino company has their own lists of people excluded from their properties. NJ has some unusual law about not excluding people because of their skill at the game (such as counters.) I've been led to believe that the single most common reason these casinos ban patrons is DV in the guest rooms or public areas, and there are a lot of establishments that have a zero-tolerance policy for DV. Sleeping, loitering, panhandling, altercations also get you banned from a property.
Quote: HunterhillI can assure you that he is not the highest authority on this.
Eliot emailed me to re-iterate this haha :D
Quote: harrisThis might not settle the debate - but I just emailed Eliot asking if anyone has been banned for side bet counting, and if any AP's are actively doing this.
The answer to both was "yes, many"
Based on his previous work, I am inclined to believe he is the de facto highest authority on this topic, so I have a little more faith in the usefulness of my website.
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I do not believe there are any serious AP's exploiting baccarat side wagers, at least those covered on Eliot Jacobson's own site.
Run the numbers on most of them and you find they typically return less than $10 an hour on a 10,000 bankroll for the kelly bettor (as with Don Schlesinger's SCORE concept).
The mistake he repeatedly makes is to test the potential of each side wager by betting $100 on every advantage however small, which would lead to very high risk of ruin. For example Jacobson states betting $100 every time the Dragon 7 bet is favorable would yield $59 per hour. This would give you an unacceptable 42% risk of ruin before doubling on a 10k bank.
It would have to be a 50k bankroll for the risk of ruin to become acceptable, but the return on investment would then be pitiful.
Almost all of his analysis has the same issue. Betting kelly on a $10k bank would return 21 cents an hour, not $59. Michael Shackleford repeats the error in his own analysis of the Panda 8 (this bet is worth literally 2 cents an hour).
If you want to do some analysis on these options then you need to run your own analysis from scratch and use correct methodology. But there is nothing much of interest.here. You do get some small advantages on these wagers but the games have so much variance it is impossible to get a decent return on investment without over-betting your bankroll and certain ruin.
Quote: Wizard
Some baccarat side bets are very countable. The Dragon 7 and Panda 8 to name just two.
See comments above. These wagers are not countable as a practical matter, even less so than the main wagers.
Also your comment is not consistent with an earlier observation in an article you wrote where you directly contradict yourself. From your analysis of the Lucky 6 side bet:
"Counting the Lucky 6 is, for all practical purposes, a waste of time. This is under the liberal pay table and shuffling rules. Obviously, it gets even worse with the stingier pay table or more shallow placement of the cut card. Counting the Dragon 7 or Panda 8 would be more profitable, but those are also a waste of time. There are much more profitable ways for the advantage player to make money."
The Dragon 7 and Panda 8 cannot be both "very countable" and "a waste of time". As it turns out the SCORE from both is cents per hour. There is nothing here of any value.
Quote: acesideHow is SCORE related to side bets? Trust Eliot Jacobson Professor of side bets. He has a math degree. He knows this stuff much better.
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He obviously does not, unfortunately. No one should be taking anything Eliot Jacobson says on trust, he is simply, demonstrably wrong.
It really should be obvious there is a major problem here.
He is recommending you bet $100 on a 40-1 proposition with as little as a 1% edge, The bankroll you would need to do that betting Kelly is $400,000.
You can do the calculation yourself. You don't need to trust anybody.
To find the Kelly fraction, type this exactly into a calculator:
(40 × 0.024634 - 0.975366) ÷ 40
Which gives you 0.00025 — that is the fraction of your bankroll you should bet.
To get the win probability (0.024634) in the first place, type:
1.01 ÷ 41
And to get the losing probability (0.975366) type:
1 - 0.024634
Finally, to find the bankroll required to make $100 the correct bet, type:
100 ÷ 0.00025
Which gives $400,000
SCORE is simply the return on a 10k bankroll betting Kelly. It is designed to be used for any advantageous gambling situation.
People use SCORE to accurately assess the value of a given wager. What SCORE does very well and edge does not is adjust for risk.
In this case it clearly shows the Dragon 7, Panda 8 and most other baccarat side wagers to be a complete waste of time for card counting purposes. We should expect this. Casinos hire mathematicians themselves to run the numbers. They do make mistakes but not that often.
You keep citing Kelly and SCORE things. Do you really understand?
Quote: acesideI believe you are talking nonsense. Show your math, not nonsense new terminology, such as SCORE. What is this?
You keep citing Kelly and SCORE things. Do you really understand?
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What GrahamThorp is posting sounds correct to me. And, his criticism of Eliot sounds plausible. IMO, Eliot's analyses do have a pattern of making assumptions that overstate the profitability of certain AP exploits, presumably because he was actively marketing himself as a security consultant to casinos at the time. To Eliot's credit, he does a meticulous job of explaining his assumptions in his analyses, but often you need to be a top-notch game analyst to understand the implication of those assumptions. In any case, I'm currently appreciating GrahamThorp's commentary.
Let me examine this part:
“To find the Kelly fraction, type this exactly into a calculator:
(40 × 0.024634 - 0.975366) ÷ 40
Which gives you 0.00025 — that is the fraction of your bankroll you should bet.”
This part of math does not make any sense to me.
Aceside I believe that you said you were a blackjack player. Yet you haven’t heard about Kelly ? StrangeQuote: acesideWell. I am a beginner in this. I only look at the math part.
Let me examine this part:
“To find the Kelly fraction, type this exactly into a calculator:
(40 × 0.024634 - 0.975366) ÷ 40
Which gives you 0.00025 — that is the fraction of your bankroll you should bet.”
This part of math does not make any sense to me.
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