Baccarat Side Bet Counting

Hello forum!

Tonight I am up late working on a website. It basically analyzes a shoe of cards and tells you the expected EV for various baccarat side bets.

From my research, it seems like some side bets out there are extremely vulnerable to card counting. I am hoping that my website can be used by casinos to catch card counters, and perhaps it can also be used by inventors to test baccarat side bets to see how countable they might be. Does anyone have any advice on how I could market my program? Would anyone be interested in collaborating to sell this to casinos?

I can also add blackjack side bets, which might be the next step - are there any other games that use side bets and a shoe that I should look into? I assume that Casino War's tie bet is +EV less than 1/1,000,000 rounds

I am not posting this website here because I worked hard on it and don't want people to copy it. I already gave you Table Games Academy for free lol.

What you are suggesting will make you very unpopular on this side of the table, and almost as unpopular on the other side. Casinos already know their bets are countable, that the percentage of players capable of doing it effectively is tiny, and that they make far more money off all of these bets than they lose to counters.

Game designers and marketers aren't that interested either, and will be even less interested in hiring the guy running around yelling "Hey everybody- you know this bet is countable!" Does it increase the drop and the hold on the table? All else is commentary.

The practicalities of counting, especially high variance stuff like sidebets, are not straightforward and you need some experience to recognize what is actually practicable and worthwhile relative to the other things you could be doing in the casino. Sometimes the most mathematically powerful count is not the best, and for various reasons. This is also why I do not teach such things to rookie players. They need to build up their skill set until they can discover and analyze a game, and create a winning system on their own before they are ready to go out and play stuff like that.

Perhaps to continue your gaming education, you should learn counting and see what life is like on the other side of the table. You live near Pennsylvania which has some of the best BJ available for counting. Once you have taken the holy vows (none of which conflict with any extant religious principles) and acknowledge the fearsome penalties for violation, the Bright Secrets will be conferred upon you and you can begin. Then at the end of a night you will walk out of the casino with a belly full of whiskey, a thousand or so $ more than you walked in with, and a random girl you picked up that you will rail all night in the Motel 6 where you are staying, and go back tomorrow and do it all again. Maybe you would like that better? It can be rough, but you will be free, and the limits to your success will be exactly your limits, and not dependent on some unworthy person's opinion of you and your work.

Quote: harris

Hello forum!

Tonight I am up late working on a website. It basically analyzes a shoe of cards and tells you the expected EV for various baccarat side bets.

From my research, it seems like some side bets out there are extremely vulnerable to card counting.

Be very careful about making this kind of statement. It makes you look amateurish.

You cannot simply run a simulation and look at the edge and conclude there is a great advantage there. An AP has to take into consideration variance, speed of play, practicality (jump bets draw attention) etc. There are no "extremely vulnerable" side-bets generally speaking in real-world conditions.Much of the gain requires computer usage - which assuming you want to run the risk of that is far better employed using forms of shuffle analysis.

Almost certainly any casino using your tech would lose money by increasing shuffle time to thwart imaginary card counters at the expense of everyone else. The drop in hold % would be obvious in a short space of time and your name will be dirt in the industry and it will take a long time to recover. This happened to Eliot Jacobson. This isn't the 1990's you can't get away with scamming people about non-existent threats.

In order to make a proposition to a modern business you have to deliver a cost-benefit analysis as to how paying your service will yield profits in the short term. You have not done that. To do that you would actually be needing to say the direct opposite: deeper penetration and fewer countermeasures would yield much greater profits for casinos.

A simple count on the Tiger 6 is to -3 for every 6, add +1 for every 7,8,9, and go for it when the count is very positive, above 7 might be acceptable but above 14 great (and it gets there more often than you would think).

At least one of the Majors has been aware of this sort of thing for years now, and has cut away a full deck and a half such that you barely get 65 hands out of the 8 deck shoe a lot of the time. But there remain some Majors who cut away only 16 cards which is the old school standard.

If you add the ability to track every card in the deck, what has come, what is left, and even tracking clumps, that changes the whole game.