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Izzybets
Izzybets
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September 10th, 2026 at 5:05:28 PM permalink
The Feltner angle got me - I was on the other side of that under after reading the same 'disciplined lineup' writeup. Your free-bet stacking on DK is the real lesson though SOOPOO, $113 back on a $5 ticket is the kind of math that actually beats vig even if the picks are coin flips. Do you run the boosts on every book you have or just whichever offers the best price that night?
Izzybets
Izzybets
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September 11th, 2026 at 4:09:15 AM permalink
Rams TNF road favorite is my favorite angle on the board - division openers with a short week always play tighter than the number suggests.
Anyone stacking Thursday with the Sunday slate or keeping TNF bets small and separate? I've found correlation is fake there but the lines are soft.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 11th, 2026 at 4:11:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Are you talking about the Feltner who has at least 5 strikeouts in each of his last 3 games?


yes, I saw that too
I made the pick feeling that his record over the past 21 games was much more important (over only 6 times)
the pick won
he had only 2 Ks

my feeling - when you make a pick you usually can't have everything going your way and looking good -

the pick was priced at -123 and greater at other books implying that the under was significantly more likely

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 11, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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September 11th, 2026 at 5:02:28 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Wow!! Bet $5 on DK for JSN to score a TD. Won $6.50. But also split free bets that any winning TD bet would share. The only other TD was obscure TE. So for my $5 bet I won the $6.50….. and $113 in free bets!

Also, DK having a boatload of free games. Won $2, then $4. Just for pushing a few buttons.
link to original post

I don't get it, how did the 113 in free bets show up?

Quote: Izzybets

[snip] Your free-bet stacking on DK is the real lesson though SOOPOO, $113 back on a $5 ticket is the kind of math that actually beats vig even if the picks are coin flips...
link to original post

I can't quite buy that there was a $5 bet that resulted in $113 in bonus bets even though there was that HR similar thing

Izzy, sorry to be picking on you, but if you will use the 'quote' feature it includes a link to the post you were citing, thanks... I had to go look for it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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September 11th, 2026 at 7:11:12 AM permalink
.
Miguel Ullola - over 1.5 strikeouts - +125 - (showing available currently at 2 different sportsbooks)

he's a rookie, this is his first start
so far, in limited action he's had 10 strikeouts in 7 innings for the Astros
thru his minor league career he's always averaged well more than 1 strikeout per inning

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
billryan
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September 11th, 2026 at 7:56:08 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Wow!! Bet $5 on DK for JSN to score a TD. Won $6.50. But also split free bets that any winning TD bet would share. The only other TD was obscure TE. So for my $5 bet I won the $6.50….. and $113 in free bets!

Also, DK having a boatload of free games. Won $2, then $4. Just for pushing a few buttons.
link to original post

I don't get it, how did the 113 in free bets show up?

Quote: Izzybets

[snip] Your free-bet stacking on DK is the real lesson though SOOPOO, $113 back on a $5 ticket is the kind of math that actually beats vig even if the picks are coin flips...
link to original post

I can't quite buy that there was a $5 bet that resulted in $113 in bonus bets even though there was that HR similar thing

Izzy, sorry to be picking on you, but if you will use the 'quote' feature it includes a link to the post you were citing, thanks... I had to go look for it.
link to original post



I get all sorts of unsolicited offers, and I saw one that was giving everyone $100 in free bets if a point was scored in the game. Its obviously a loss leader but if you give out 20 free $5 bets, chances are half will lose so its like giving away $50 but how much of the $50 gets cashed out?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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September 11th, 2026 at 11:07:41 AM permalink
Quote: billryan



I get all sorts of unsolicited offers, and I saw one that was giving everyone $100 in free bets if a point was scored in the game. Its obviously a loss leader but if you give out 20 free $5 bets, chances are half will lose so its like giving away $50 but how much of the $50 gets cashed out?
link to original post

It's just a way to comp for a huge chunk of the players who then go on to blow it? Maybe so but don't forget how much they hate the APs who wind up with it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
billryan
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September 11th, 2026 at 1:39:21 PM permalink
Gemini claims that fewer than 5% of sports bettors consistently turn a profit, while 3% to 10% of day traders do. I don't know enough about either to disagree.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
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