Sports betting chatter
September 10th, 2026 at 5:05:28 PM
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The Feltner angle got me - I was on the other side of that under after reading the same 'disciplined lineup' writeup. Your free-bet stacking on DK is the real lesson though SOOPOO, $113 back on a $5 ticket is the kind of math that actually beats vig even if the picks are coin flips. Do you run the boosts on every book you have or just whichever offers the best price that night?
September 11th, 2026 at 4:09:15 AM
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Rams TNF road favorite is my favorite angle on the board - division openers with a short week always play tighter than the number suggests.
Anyone stacking Thursday with the Sunday slate or keeping TNF bets small and separate? I've found correlation is fake there but the lines are soft.
Anyone stacking Thursday with the Sunday slate or keeping TNF bets small and separate? I've found correlation is fake there but the lines are soft.
September 11th, 2026 at 4:11:23 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOAre you talking about the Feltner who has at least 5 strikeouts in each of his last 3 games?
yes, I saw that too
I made the pick feeling that his record over the past 21 games was much more important (over only 6 times)
the pick won
he had only 2 Ks
my feeling - when you make a pick you usually can't have everything going your way and looking good -
the pick was priced at -123 and greater at other books implying that the under was significantly more likely
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 11, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 11th, 2026 at 5:02:28 AM
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I don't get it, how did the 113 in free bets show up?Quote: SOOPOOWow!! Bet $5 on DK for JSN to score a TD. Won $6.50. But also split free bets that any winning TD bet would share. The only other TD was obscure TE. So for my $5 bet I won the $6.50….. and $113 in free bets!
Also, DK having a boatload of free games. Won $2, then $4. Just for pushing a few buttons.
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I can't quite buy that there was a $5 bet that resulted in $113 in bonus bets even though there was that HR similar thingQuote: Izzybets[snip] Your free-bet stacking on DK is the real lesson though SOOPOO, $113 back on a $5 ticket is the kind of math that actually beats vig even if the picks are coin flips...
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Izzy, sorry to be picking on you, but if you will use the 'quote' feature it includes a link to the post you were citing, thanks... I had to go look for it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 11th, 2026 at 7:11:12 AM
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Miguel Ullola - over 1.5 strikeouts - +125 - (showing available currently at 2 different sportsbooks)
he's a rookie, this is his first start
so far, in limited action he's had 10 strikeouts in 7 innings for the Astros
thru his minor league career he's always averaged well more than 1 strikeout per inning
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Miguel Ullola - over 1.5 strikeouts - +125 - (showing available currently at 2 different sportsbooks)
he's a rookie, this is his first start
so far, in limited action he's had 10 strikeouts in 7 innings for the Astros
thru his minor league career he's always averaged well more than 1 strikeout per inning
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 11th, 2026 at 7:56:08 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI don't get it, how did the 113 in free bets show up?Quote: SOOPOOWow!! Bet $5 on DK for JSN to score a TD. Won $6.50. But also split free bets that any winning TD bet would share. The only other TD was obscure TE. So for my $5 bet I won the $6.50….. and $113 in free bets!
Also, DK having a boatload of free games. Won $2, then $4. Just for pushing a few buttons.
link to original postI can't quite buy that there was a $5 bet that resulted in $113 in bonus bets even though there was that HR similar thingQuote: Izzybets[snip] Your free-bet stacking on DK is the real lesson though SOOPOO, $113 back on a $5 ticket is the kind of math that actually beats vig even if the picks are coin flips...
link to original post
Izzy, sorry to be picking on you, but if you will use the 'quote' feature it includes a link to the post you were citing, thanks... I had to go look for it.
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I get all sorts of unsolicited offers, and I saw one that was giving everyone $100 in free bets if a point was scored in the game. Its obviously a loss leader but if you give out 20 free $5 bets, chances are half will lose so its like giving away $50 but how much of the $50 gets cashed out?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 11th, 2026 at 11:07:41 AM
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It's just a way to comp for a huge chunk of the players who then go on to blow it? Maybe so but don't forget how much they hate the APs who wind up with itQuote: billryan
I get all sorts of unsolicited offers, and I saw one that was giving everyone $100 in free bets if a point was scored in the game. Its obviously a loss leader but if you give out 20 free $5 bets, chances are half will lose so its like giving away $50 but how much of the $50 gets cashed out?
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the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 11th, 2026 at 1:39:21 PM
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Gemini claims that fewer than 5% of sports bettors consistently turn a profit, while 3% to 10% of day traders do. I don't know enough about either to disagree.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 11th, 2026 at 6:42:12 PM
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Fair catch on the quote feature, odiousgambit - my bad, will quote from now on so the links carry. On the DK math: the $113 was not the ticket itself, it was the split-any-TD-scorer pool paying out in bonus bets when JSN and the obscure TE were the only scorers. Sick variance for $5 either way. Rams TNF under cashed for me, week 1 finishing strong - anyone have a Sunday slate lean they love?
September 12th, 2026 at 3:11:25 AM
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OK, get it now.Quote: IzzybetsFair catch on the quote feature, odiousgambit - my bad, will quote from now on so the links carry. On the DK math: the $113 was not the ticket itself, it was the split-any-TD-scorer pool paying out in bonus bets when JSN and the obscure TE were the only scorers. Sick variance for $5 either way. Rams TNF under cashed for me, week 1 finishing strong - anyone have a Sunday slate lean they love?
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I hate the pools in internet betting because the rules aren't fully defined when I try to look into it. I suppose that's being foolish, not dismissing such objections when the risk is low. On the other hand look at how many people here [evidently] don't do the online sports betting at all though it's money for the taking. So I don't feel so bad . Ha.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 12th, 2026 at 6:34:32 AM
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pick on Ullola lost
today - UAB -9.5 over LSM
ULM lost its first game by 49 points and they are 1-9 in their last 10 games on the road
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pick on Ullola lost
today - UAB -9.5 over LSM
ULM lost its first game by 49 points and they are 1-9 in their last 10 games on the road
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 13th, 2026 at 4:16:35 AM
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pick on Bama lost - they didn't cover - only won by 6
Jacoby Brissett under 22.5 completions
Chargers have a very tough pass defense
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pick on Bama lost - they didn't cover - only won by 6
Jacoby Brissett under 22.5 completions
Chargers have a very tough pass defense
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 13th, 2026 at 4:34:55 AM
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Bama beat Kentucky 45-17 What did you wager on?Quote: lilredrooster.
pick on Bama lost - they didn't cover - only won by 6
link to original post
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
September 13th, 2026 at 5:20:28 AM
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Quote: gordonm888Bama beat Kentucky 45-17 What did you wager on?Quote: lilredrooster.
pick on Bama lost - they didn't cover - only won by 6
link to original post
link to original post
my bad - not Bama
it was UAB over ULM by a score of 26-20 - the spread was 9.5 - UAB failed to cover
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 13th, 2026 at 5:33:19 AM
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I got two $50, and one $13 free bet. I got lucky and won the $13 at around +300, and also won one of the $50’s at around +250. So it turned into around $160 in real cash. Remember, all for that initial $5 bet. (That I won $6 on).
Billy, give me those 20 $5 free bets and I can easily turn it into more than $50 in EV. Let’s say I bet on some longshots getting 8-1 that hit 10% of the time. The book is taking its vig so I’ll never find the ‘fair’ 9-1. But if I hit the expected two winners that’s $160,, so around 80% of the ‘face value’. This is EV, not a guarantee. But I get so many of these type things it doesn’t matter.
Today’s similar offer is ‘first TD scorer of the day’. I took a flyer on Amon St Brown. I figured ‘first’ would more likely be on a longish pass, as opposed to a drive ending in a RB short run.
Answering Izzy…. Other than the occasional $1 bets I make for ‘fun’, I just evaluate the offers each morning, figure out how to best use them, and sometimes then also make -EV bets on opposing sites to guarantee a win, and I believe insure my overall longevity.
I have already (essentially) been banned from BetRivers as their offers were so easily beatable I guess I made too much $$ from them.
Billy, give me those 20 $5 free bets and I can easily turn it into more than $50 in EV. Let’s say I bet on some longshots getting 8-1 that hit 10% of the time. The book is taking its vig so I’ll never find the ‘fair’ 9-1. But if I hit the expected two winners that’s $160,, so around 80% of the ‘face value’. This is EV, not a guarantee. But I get so many of these type things it doesn’t matter.
Today’s similar offer is ‘first TD scorer of the day’. I took a flyer on Amon St Brown. I figured ‘first’ would more likely be on a longish pass, as opposed to a drive ending in a RB short run.
Answering Izzy…. Other than the occasional $1 bets I make for ‘fun’, I just evaluate the offers each morning, figure out how to best use them, and sometimes then also make -EV bets on opposing sites to guarantee a win, and I believe insure my overall longevity.
I have already (essentially) been banned from BetRivers as their offers were so easily beatable I guess I made too much $$ from them.
September 13th, 2026 at 5:46:21 AM
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Soopoo - you're a master at this stuff - (re the above post)
and you're having lots of fun doing it
it's really great what you've been able to do
and interested others can learn a lot from your posts
edit - I read somewhere that if a bettor wants to hide the fact that he's a winner that it's good to make a few small parlay bets - sportsbooks think parlays are sucker bets
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Soopoo - you're a master at this stuff - (re the above post)
and you're having lots of fun doing it
it's really great what you've been able to do
and interested others can learn a lot from your posts
edit - I read somewhere that if a bettor wants to hide the fact that he's a winner that it's good to make a few small parlay bets - sportsbooks think parlays are sucker bets
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 13, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 13th, 2026 at 8:17:20 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I read somewhere that if a bettor wants to hide the fact that he's a winner
Can’t. Be. Done. Every site knows exactly how much I’ve deposited, and exactly how much I’m ahead.
What you can try to do is hide the HOW you are a winner. Those who ONLY make bets using profit boosts are announcing to the sites who they are. Those who do what I do at least try and muzzle the announcement.
September 13th, 2026 at 9:35:03 AM
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I know there are some (probably very few) sports bettors who do make huge bucks
I wonder how they manage not to get banned by the books -
it seems to me to be very similar to casinos banning card counters who consistently win at blackjack
https://oddsmatrix.com/top-sports-bettors/
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I know there are some (probably very few) sports bettors who do make huge bucks
I wonder how they manage not to get banned by the books -
it seems to me to be very similar to casinos banning card counters who consistently win at blackjack
https://oddsmatrix.com/top-sports-bettors/
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 13, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 13th, 2026 at 10:56:12 AM
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I have 3 sites that are shoveling money to me right now.
By what standard? The standard of what I have previously been able to access in + EV before online betting.
3 sites give me nothing, still access infrequently. Why? I was withdrawing too frequently is my best guess. Seems to be the thing they care about.
By what standard? The standard of what I have previously been able to access in + EV before online betting.
3 sites give me nothing, still access infrequently. Why? I was withdrawing too frequently is my best guess. Seems to be the thing they care about.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 14th, 2026 at 6:24:33 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI have 3 sites that are shoveling money to me right now.
By what standard? The standard of what I have previously been able to access in + EV before online betting.
3 sites give me nothing, still access infrequently. Why? I was withdrawing too frequently is my best guess. Seems to be the thing they care about.
link to original post
And it really is a guess.
I’m in one of those ‘survivor’ contests. I went very far last year, maybe week 13? (I got a free $10 entry). Picked Raiders yesterday figuring it will be the only time they are a reasonable pick. Maybe 10-20% are done from Chargers game.
One parlay…. Giants win/Skatebo TD/over 47.5/Prescott under 263 yards…. Boosted…. Almost 10-1. Cha Ching.
Had under in the Bills game….. lost before halftime!
Walker TD/over yards….
September 14th, 2026 at 6:37:43 AM
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Offenses are way ahead of defense in the first week or two. The NFL needs a realistic practice system that doesn't keep defenses from actually hitting people in practice. Spending two months practicing at 60 MPH doesn't prepare you for a Grand Prix any more than practicing in pads prepares you for the violent hits a regular-season game reaches. I understand wanting to avoid injuries but fans have a right to expect some defense.
Last year, the average NFL game score was about 45 points. Yesterdays was over 53. A 59-37 game is not a good look.
Last year, the average NFL game score was about 45 points. Yesterdays was over 53. A 59-37 game is not a good look.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 14th, 2026 at 1:56:27 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: odiousgambitI have 3 sites that are shoveling money to me right now.
By what standard? The standard of what I have previously been able to access in + EV before online betting.
3 sites give me nothing, still access infrequently. Why? I was withdrawing too frequently is my best guess. Seems to be the thing they care about.
link to original post
And it really is a guess.
I’m in one of those ‘survivor’ contests. I went very far last year, maybe week 13? (I got a free $10 entry). Picked Raiders yesterday figuring it will be the only time they are a reasonable pick. Maybe 10-20% are done from Chargers game.
One parlay…. Giants win/Skatebo TD/over 47.5/Prescott under 263 yards…. Boosted…. Almost 10-1. Cha Ching.
Had under in the Bills game….. lost before halftime!
Walker TD/over yards….
link to original post
I am again playing the ESPN Survivor contest. I also picked the Raiders in the first week for the same reason.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
September 14th, 2026 at 2:57:51 PM
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Soopoo, if you aren't already aware, you can convert $100 in free bets into $70+ guaranteed cash simply by betting a solid underdog and hedging it. Sites like DarkHorseOdds or OddsJam show you the optimal lines for this.
I laughed at OdiousGambit's surprise that you won $113 in free bets -- promos on DK often have chances to win large free bets. Betting on Chuba Hubbard to score a TD yesterday on DK earned people $7300 each (in bonus bets) on a $5 bet as he was the first player to score in any of yesterday's early games.
To anyone who does not understand already: online sports betting is a gold mine. Online casino gaming is a far larger gold mine. Prediction markets are a gold mine. Anyone on here who is capable of card counting in blackjack or memorizing perfect play in video poker, you really should adapt to online advantage play.
I laughed at OdiousGambit's surprise that you won $113 in free bets -- promos on DK often have chances to win large free bets. Betting on Chuba Hubbard to score a TD yesterday on DK earned people $7300 each (in bonus bets) on a $5 bet as he was the first player to score in any of yesterday's early games.
To anyone who does not understand already: online sports betting is a gold mine. Online casino gaming is a far larger gold mine. Prediction markets are a gold mine. Anyone on here who is capable of card counting in blackjack or memorizing perfect play in video poker, you really should adapt to online advantage play.
September 14th, 2026 at 3:17:18 PM
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Quote: findingEVSoopoo, if you aren't already aware, you can convert $100 in free bets into $70+ guaranteed cash simply by betting a solid underdog and hedging it. Sites like DarkHorseOdds or OddsJam show you the optimal lines for this.
I laughed at OdiousGambit's surprise that you won $113 in free bets -- promos on DK often have chances to win large free bets. Betting on Chuba Hubbard to score a TD yesterday on DK earned people $7300 each (in bonus bets) on a $5 bet as he was the first player to score in any of yesterday's early games.
To anyone who does not understand already: online sports betting is a gold mine. Online casino gaming is a far larger gold mine. Prediction markets are a gold mine. Anyone on here who is capable of card counting in blackjack or memorizing perfect play in video poker, you really should adapt to online advantage play.
link to original post
Aware of point one. I need to do some line shopping to get it to $70. But high 60’s is pretty easy.
Point two…. duhhhh. Now if I only knew to pick Chubba Hubbard…. I was pretty happy with my $100+ free bet haul.
Point three. Agree. But I’m older and I’m doing this more for fun than $$. Not that I don’t want more $$, but I think there is more effort required to get big $$ out of these books than you allude to. I do say this, if I was younger and in need of a job I think I could be successful at making a living in the current online sportsbook environment.
You imply you are in the middle of a gold mine. This is an anonymous (for you) Internet forum. Are you making 7 figures from this gold mine?
September 14th, 2026 at 3:22:28 PM
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Yes re: 7 figures from this. Majority from the casino side though. And yes, you could absolutely be successful at making a living from this if you wanted to, especially if you lived in a state/province with access to as many gaming sites as possible, including the legalization of casino play.
September 15th, 2026 at 4:43:07 AM
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Quote: findingEVYes re: 7 figures from this.
7 figures - millions of $
many players including some here have been banned at certain casinos or had their bets severely restricted
would you care to share why that has not happened to you ?
why have casinos allowed you to win and continue to win millions while banning others?
thanks
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 15th, 2026 at 4:52:00 AM
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I am now banned at most sites and sports-limited almost everywhere. A lot of sites were looking to show growth over the past few years here in the US, and bettors were incredibly unsophisticated, so promotions could be extremely advantageous to the player and most people would still lose. Prediction markets will not limit you, however, so that is a great way to get back into sports betting if you are limited elsewhere.
Lest you think the good times are over, though, here's an offer from today in Michigan: deposit $3K, get $1500 free in a licensed casino. 5X playthrough required (so must play $7500). One does not have to be terribly clever to see how this is profitable.
https://playeagle.com/promotion.shtml?promoid=50-up-to-1500-091526
Lest you think the good times are over, though, here's an offer from today in Michigan: deposit $3K, get $1500 free in a licensed casino. 5X playthrough required (so must play $7500). One does not have to be terribly clever to see how this is profitable.
https://playeagle.com/promotion.shtml?promoid=50-up-to-1500-091526
September 15th, 2026 at 5:59:04 AM
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funny that someone who is posing as an expert in +EV online would not say that you make more money by not hedging free bets.Quote: findingEVSoopoo, if you aren't already aware, you can convert $100 in free bets into $70+ guaranteed cash simply by betting a solid underdog and hedging it. Sites like DarkHorseOdds or OddsJam show you the optimal lines for this.
not surprised, but I don't agree that it is automatically a good bet. You do have to pick the right guy, right? How about a mathematical evaluation instead of being a cheerleader. Hey, I've given soopoo lots of dap, but 'cheerleading' is demonstrably a stupid approach to evaluating gamblingQuote:I laughed at OdiousGambit's surprise that you won $113 in free bets
so that is your version of mathematical evaluation of a bet? Are you just a shill for DK?Quote:promos on DK often have chances to win large free bets. Betting on Chuba Hubbard to score a TD yesterday on DK earned people $7300 each (in bonus bets) on a $5 bet as he was the first player to score in any of yesterday's early games.
I guess there are people who consistently make money on prediction markets. There hasn't been a single thread here about doing AP with it, unless I'm mistaken. How about showing us how you do that? ...... with math.Quote:To anyone who does not understand already: online sports betting is a gold mine. Online casino gaming is a far larger gold mine. Prediction markets are a gold mine.
yeah, get out the popcorn. It's bad enough that I'm a mere 4 figure per year online sports bettor, but if I give an honest opinion about hesitation on a debatable +EV/-EV evaluation, I get called out on it for being laughably risk averse.Quote:Anyone on here who is capable of card counting in blackjack or memorizing perfect play in video poker, you really should adapt to online advantage play.
link to original post
PS one thing that has come out about this is that the amount you bet when there is a pool for your reward, that they don't tell you that the amount you bet is weighed, and that you only won $15 or something because you didn't bet much. Reading the fineprint of terms, I could never get that confirmed. I might participate in some pools now.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 15th, 2026 at 6:17:06 AM
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Please stop driving away new folks who can bring things to the table. Your post seems contentious and I'm not sure why.
You are generally correct that you make more money from not hedging free bets if we assume the non-free-bet side is -EV, but using a site like DarkHorseOdds, we are generally betting something like a +400 line vs. a -400 line to use a free bet, so no EV has to be lost.
I am not trying to pose as an expert: my point, conversely, is that even a very basic person like me who can't do Wizard-level math calculations can make multiple millions from this. I would like to see others on here benefit from newer tactics and opportunities.
The first way to make money from sportsbooks is to utilize new user promotions. Then utilize regular promotions, hitting them hard to try to earn VIP promotions. Once they quit giving you promotions (which is inevitable but varies wildly on if your first bets win or lose and how innocent they look), you can turn to arbitrage or +EV betting. Those bets are shown on sites like OddsJam or DarkHorseOdds at all times. Eventually you will get limited to being able to bet much less. Frequently live betting limits are separate from pre-game limits, so that offers another path of profitability until they close it.
I also recommend depositing using a method that gives you credit card or debit card rewards. MGM in particualar has a CC that also earns you Platinum Status there; Discover (now Capital One) is more gambling-friendly than most. GBank and Edge are gambling-specific credit and debit cards that allow deposits to sites with no fees as well.
Prize pools on DK are not weighted based on the amount you bet; typically a $5+ bet qualifies for an equal share of the prize pool.
You are generally correct that you make more money from not hedging free bets if we assume the non-free-bet side is -EV, but using a site like DarkHorseOdds, we are generally betting something like a +400 line vs. a -400 line to use a free bet, so no EV has to be lost.
I am not trying to pose as an expert: my point, conversely, is that even a very basic person like me who can't do Wizard-level math calculations can make multiple millions from this. I would like to see others on here benefit from newer tactics and opportunities.
The first way to make money from sportsbooks is to utilize new user promotions. Then utilize regular promotions, hitting them hard to try to earn VIP promotions. Once they quit giving you promotions (which is inevitable but varies wildly on if your first bets win or lose and how innocent they look), you can turn to arbitrage or +EV betting. Those bets are shown on sites like OddsJam or DarkHorseOdds at all times. Eventually you will get limited to being able to bet much less. Frequently live betting limits are separate from pre-game limits, so that offers another path of profitability until they close it.
I also recommend depositing using a method that gives you credit card or debit card rewards. MGM in particualar has a CC that also earns you Platinum Status there; Discover (now Capital One) is more gambling-friendly than most. GBank and Edge are gambling-specific credit and debit cards that allow deposits to sites with no fees as well.
Prize pools on DK are not weighted based on the amount you bet; typically a $5+ bet qualifies for an equal share of the prize pool.
September 15th, 2026 at 7:15:22 AM
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Thanks for confirming that it's not weighted, I don't like to find out something like that the hard way.
As far as discouraging others, I have pretty consistently advocated that people here should be betting their state's legalized sports betting. The new user promotions can be big bucks, but they have versions that are almost risk free, like get $200 in freebets for just betting $5 ... I've tried to make it clear there's nothing to fear unless you tend to go ploppy and get addicted and it's all -EV. I can't apologize for pointing out not everything that's offered is gold. There is a lot you want to turn down, often involving parlays that sound good but are crap. I had to go through a learning curve on that and I've shared it, I hope it helped others.
As far as discouraging others, I have pretty consistently advocated that people here should be betting their state's legalized sports betting. The new user promotions can be big bucks, but they have versions that are almost risk free, like get $200 in freebets for just betting $5 ... I've tried to make it clear there's nothing to fear unless you tend to go ploppy and get addicted and it's all -EV. I can't apologize for pointing out not everything that's offered is gold. There is a lot you want to turn down, often involving parlays that sound good but are crap. I had to go through a learning curve on that and I've shared it, I hope it helped others.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 15th, 2026 at 11:54:38 AM
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The NFL has turned what should be the final exhibition game into a regular-season game where fans pay the full price. Don't fall for the illusions we saw on Sunday..
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
September 16th, 2026 at 5:14:20 AM
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Quote: findingEVmy point is that even a very basic person like me who can't do Wizard-level math calculations can make multiple millions from this.
it may be possible to "make multiple millions" but I don't believe it is easy
you make it sound easy - I don't believe it is
you've done it so you must be quite exceptional
some sports bettors have been banned for winning just a few hundred
are they going to take more action from a player who has won $20K ?
I think many won't
there are several here who know how to benefit from promotions but I don't believe they have come even remotely close to making "multiple millions"
from google:
AI Overview
"Sportsbooks regularly ban successful or sharp bettors who win relatively small amounts because their algorithms flag winning patterns as a risk to the house.
Why Sportsbooks Ban Winners:
Risk Management: Bookmakers use automated systems to monitor accounts.
If a user places smart bets or beats the closing line consistently, the system flags them.House Rules: Legal sportsbooks operate under terms of service that allow them to limit stakes or close accounts at any time without needing to prove cheating.
Protecting Profit:
Commercial books prefer recreational bettors who lose over time. They restrict or ban anyone showing an edge, even if total winnings are only a few hundred dollars."
some more from Google:
AI Overview
"Very few sports bettors in the U.S.—likely only a tiny fraction of a percent—make millions of dollars in net profit long-term.
Making Millions:
Consistently beating the closing lines by enough of a margin to clear millions in profit requires institutional-level data, syndicates, or professional handicapping operations. Out of more than 40 million U.S. sports bettors, those who net millions purely from professional sports wagering number in the dozens or low hundreds, not thousands. Most people who appear to make millions publicizing sports bets are selling picks, running affiliate programs, or losing heavily behind the scenes."
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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 16, 2026
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 16th, 2026 at 5:35:26 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster
"Sportsbooks regularly ban successful or sharp bettors who win relatively small amounts because their algorithms flag winning patterns as a risk to the house.
Yea that's true. I'm banned everywhere.
I have many friends though. Mysteriously, they are all very successful at sports despite knowing nothing about betting. I mean, what are the odds that 25 of my nearest acquaintances are all 5-figure winners?
September 16th, 2026 at 5:46:31 AM
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Quote: GrahamThorpMysteriously, they are ALL very successful at sports despite knowing nothing about betting. I mean, what are the odds that 25 of my nearest acquaintances are all 5-figure winners?
5 figures - quite possible
in the post I responded to findingEV seemed to be suggesting it was easy to profit by SEVEN FIGURES, not 5
and that is quite astonishing that "all" of your friends are highly profitable
that doesn't fit the pattern of what happens to most sports bettors
if it did, the books couldn't suvive, obviously
it seems like you're making it look easy when in reality it isn't easy
I'm not making any accusations
but I admit to being very suspicious of any claims that it is easy to be highly profitable at gambling
those kind of claims don't make sense to me
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 16th, 2026 at 7:23:05 AM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: GrahamThorpMysteriously, they are ALL very successful at sports despite knowing nothing about betting. I mean, what are the odds that 25 of my nearest acquaintances are all 5-figure winners?
5 figures - quite possible
in the post I responded to findingEV seemed to be suggesting it was easy to profit by SEVEN FIGURES, not 5
and that is quite astonishing that "all" of your friends are highly profitable
that doesn't fit the pattern of what happens to most sports bettors
if it did, the books couldn't suvive, obviously
it seems like you're making it look easy when in reality it isn't easy
I'm not making any accusations
but I admit to being very suspicious of any claims that it is easy to be highly profitable at gambling
those kind of claims don't make sense to me
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link to original post
He TOLD you how it can be done! I think you will agree that it is not hard to make 5 figures now as the offers are currently out there? For easy math, let’s say $20k a year. Find 50 people who are willing to take a free $5k, and the MILLION you make is offset by $250k. It’s what DarkOz does in brick and mortar casinos.
I’m not saying there isn’t SOME sophistication needed to be successful.
As I’ve said, I ‘think’ if I was younger (or poorer!?!) I’d bed g something like that.
September 16th, 2026 at 9:52:13 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOHe TOLD you how it can be done! I think you will agree that it is not hard to make 5 figures now as the offers are currently out there? For easy math, let’s say $20k a year. Find 50 people who are willing to take a free $5k, and the MILLION you make is offset by $250k. It’s what DarkOz does in brick and mortar casinos.
I’m not saying there isn’t SOME sophistication needed to be successful.
As I’ve said, I ‘think’ if I was younger (or poorer!?!) I’d bed g something like that.
per searches of several different sites there was a consensus that 95% or more of sports bettors lose in the long run
are they all idiots?
why are so many losing when it's so easy to win?
GrahamThorp posted this:
" I mean, what are the odds that 25 of my nearest acquaintances are all 5-figure winners?"
question for you - if you could see the records of 25 random sports bettors what do you think the chances are that all 25 that you saw would be highly profitable winners into 5 figures - ?
don't bother to answer - I'll answer for you
the chances are slim and none
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
September 16th, 2026 at 10:11:51 AM
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Only thing I can see that he said is telling us about new user promotions. Now you have added 'and find 50 people who can give you the usage of their new user promotions'. I guess that's what he was talking about too, though I didn't realize it. It's totally against the rules, not even a gray area to me, nothing I'd ever do, though it's arguable about being a 'gray area' . I personally don't accept all that as an argument to Rooster's point.Quote: SOOPOO
He TOLD you how it can be done!
link to original post
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Sep 16, 2026
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 16th, 2026 at 10:21:23 AM
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A friend of mine might hook up with DK, he says, and he asked me if I could benefit from that. I told him I don't want that money at all.
I truly think you could get into a mess with advocating people join up. What if their experience is bad and they know you made money for the referral?* What if they turn out to get addicted to online gambling, prone to that and you didn't know it? [this guy is a poker player in our home games].
I offered a lot of people that I could help, would know the best way to get free money to gamble with at least. He's the only one who maybe will take me up on it. I am glad now, after thinking about it, that no one else has even considered it.
* and what if they had second thoughts about your shady scheme? they didnt do well, say, went down the tubes in fact, but you made lots of money. They know because you gave them $5k which they blew through fast
I truly think you could get into a mess with advocating people join up. What if their experience is bad and they know you made money for the referral?* What if they turn out to get addicted to online gambling, prone to that and you didn't know it? [this guy is a poker player in our home games].
I offered a lot of people that I could help, would know the best way to get free money to gamble with at least. He's the only one who maybe will take me up on it. I am glad now, after thinking about it, that no one else has even considered it.
* and what if they had second thoughts about your shady scheme? they didnt do well, say, went down the tubes in fact, but you made lots of money. They know because you gave them $5k which they blew through fast
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 16th, 2026 at 12:24:53 PM
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I agree that I would not want to encourage other people to sign up for sports/casino websites if they had any chance of losing on them. I have a different reason for never accepting referral bonuses as well: it would not be beneficial to new accounts for them to be attached to my accounts in any way.
I feel like the chat has again lost the plot in terms of discussing whether or not claims of winning millions from online sports/casino (and DFS and poker and whatever else I can find) is possible instead of discussing actual profitable plays. I'll switch to more plays now and if people still want to bicker instead, I'd appreciate a recommendation on where might be a better place for me to post about useful strategies.
1. FanDuel: FanDuel currently has a level 1-4 system for sports bettors as well as a VIP tier. VIPs get a $2000 deposit bonus with a 1X playthrough (so effectively free cash) on the 15th of each month. Otherwise the level 1-4 promos are generally quite weak.
2. Circa Survivor: this is an interesting one for us to keep an eye on for future years. It costs $1K to enter the main Circa NFL Survivor contest. People who lost in week 1 (generally by choosing the LA Chargers last week) are now willing to dramatically overpay to get back into the contest, as contest entries can be sold mid-season. We are seeing people who entered for $1K, picked a heavy favorite and won (like -300 or more on teams like the Lions or Jaguars) are now able to sell their entry for $3500+. This is a serious play for the future that we should keep an eye on. Details of the sales/transfers here: https://x.com/SurvivorSweat/status/2100030577332388218
3. Correlated Parlays: one huge angle is to try to find same-game-parlay correlations that the books have not fully priced in yet. There are also crazy glitches that people have found, such as one website that had multiple instances of the same player with a differently-spelled name in prop bets, so you could bet the same player twice for multiplied odds.
4. Again, it is pretty much impossible to find sports arbitrage and misaligned opportunities without some sort of automated aggregator helping you. It's kind of like people who play live poker without a HUD -- generally, the player with the better data wins.
Edit: 5. Here's a free $25 on DK for everyone as well: https://x.com/draftkings/status/2099851250963481071 -- for those who don't want to click, the offer is "deposit $50 via Venmo, get $25 free." Don't do this if you aren't already well-versed with DK; you need to already know how to play through the $75 with no loss.
I feel like the chat has again lost the plot in terms of discussing whether or not claims of winning millions from online sports/casino (and DFS and poker and whatever else I can find) is possible instead of discussing actual profitable plays. I'll switch to more plays now and if people still want to bicker instead, I'd appreciate a recommendation on where might be a better place for me to post about useful strategies.
1. FanDuel: FanDuel currently has a level 1-4 system for sports bettors as well as a VIP tier. VIPs get a $2000 deposit bonus with a 1X playthrough (so effectively free cash) on the 15th of each month. Otherwise the level 1-4 promos are generally quite weak.
2. Circa Survivor: this is an interesting one for us to keep an eye on for future years. It costs $1K to enter the main Circa NFL Survivor contest. People who lost in week 1 (generally by choosing the LA Chargers last week) are now willing to dramatically overpay to get back into the contest, as contest entries can be sold mid-season. We are seeing people who entered for $1K, picked a heavy favorite and won (like -300 or more on teams like the Lions or Jaguars) are now able to sell their entry for $3500+. This is a serious play for the future that we should keep an eye on. Details of the sales/transfers here: https://x.com/SurvivorSweat/status/2100030577332388218
3. Correlated Parlays: one huge angle is to try to find same-game-parlay correlations that the books have not fully priced in yet. There are also crazy glitches that people have found, such as one website that had multiple instances of the same player with a differently-spelled name in prop bets, so you could bet the same player twice for multiplied odds.
4. Again, it is pretty much impossible to find sports arbitrage and misaligned opportunities without some sort of automated aggregator helping you. It's kind of like people who play live poker without a HUD -- generally, the player with the better data wins.
Edit: 5. Here's a free $25 on DK for everyone as well: https://x.com/draftkings/status/2099851250963481071 -- for those who don't want to click, the offer is "deposit $50 via Venmo, get $25 free." Don't do this if you aren't already well-versed with DK; you need to already know how to play through the $75 with no loss.
September 16th, 2026 at 1:07:51 PM
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Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOHe TOLD you how it can be done! I think you will agree that it is not hard to make 5 figures now as the offers are currently out there? For easy math, let’s say $20k a year. Find 50 people who are willing to take a free $5k, and the MILLION you make is offset by $250k. It’s what DarkOz does in brick and mortar casinos.
I’m not saying there isn’t SOME sophistication needed to be successful.
As I’ve said, I ‘think’ if I was younger (or poorer!?!) I’d bed g something like that.
per searches of several different sites there was a consensus that 95% or more of sports bettors lose in the long run
are they all idiots?
why are so many losing when it's so easy to win?
GrahamThorp posted this:
" I mean, what are the odds that 25 of my nearest acquaintances are all 5-figure winners?"
question for you - if you could see the records of 25 random sports bettors what do you think the chances are that all 25 that you saw would be highly profitable winners into 5 figures - ?
don't bother to answer - I'll answer for you
the chances are slim and none
.
link to original post
You are hurting my brain. What I’m talking about is (I DON’T do this) is just using different people’s names/accounts the SAME way I’d use ONE account. These other people are not really ‘sports bettors’’. They are just business acquaintances willing to get free money for lending their name to a different person in a purely business decision.
Of course there are potential pitfalls (trust) or (taxes) or (having accounts closed/seized). But the CONCEPT is quite simple.
So OF COURSE I don’t know 25 sports bettors who win. I might remind you, I don’t consider myself a ‘winning’ sports bettor. What we are talking about is exploiting deposit bonuses/profit boosts/free bets/early up payouts/etc…
Stop thinking of it like ‘sports betting’ and that may help.
September 16th, 2026 at 4:49:38 PM
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Oregon -57.5 this week. I am not betting it.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
September 16th, 2026 at 5:11:13 PM
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Penn State/Buffalo opened at Over 47.5. It has since moved three points at some places
100% risk of ruin
September 17th, 2026 at 4:08:19 AM
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Quote: lilredrooster
per searches of several different sites there was a consensus that 95% or more of sports bettors lose in the long run
are they all idiots?
why are so many losing when it's so easy to win?
Most are recreational gamblers who have goals other than becoming professional players. They want to boost their favourite team, make a dull match more interesting, or try some progressive betting system. Very few people treat it like a job which is what you have to do to win.
But, it isn't especially difficult to win at sports. Bonus hustling is trivial for an adult human of average intelligence. Arbitrage is a little harder to execute and understand but I'm pretty certain any one with an iq of >90 can grasp it. It doesn't take much more effort to buy a software package and beat soft lines.
The difficulty is that you get bounced from everywhere long before you make anything like a million. That's when you start using your friends accounts (legally grey but very difficult to detect), or if you want to be a choir boy you can take them through the process manually, or simply charge them a profit share for your expert advice.
Almost everyone making millions is using outs. It takes a lot of organization and bureaucracy but again, it is quite possible for an adult human of average intelligence.
September 17th, 2026 at 5:22:49 AM
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DK posts a 'boost' for a multi-leg parlay where several players hit targets, on opposite teams, with bets that you can't choose the 'no' .... so with my duty to point out things that 'are not gold' here it is, on 3 counts, a same game parlay, opposite teams [bad correlation], non-binary bets [sure to be higher edge]
Nothing new but got my attention because 'Charissa Thompson' busted her brain to come up with this to share with us. Right. Who the heck is she? Well I looked it up. With this 'type' they always do nude photos seems like ...
Nothing new but got my attention because 'Charissa Thompson' busted her brain to come up with this to share with us. Right. Who the heck is she? Well I looked it up. With this 'type' they always do nude photos seems like ...
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 17th, 2026 at 6:37:01 AM
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I’m making a bet specifically thanks (or no thanks?) to the ideas posted earlier here. Ohio State/Kent State is either -52 or -52.5, and O/U either 58.5 or 59.5. The highly correlated OSU/over is around +120. I’m getting +181 using the -52 but need to take the over 59.5. I’ll take any result, win or loss, except 56-3.
I have Lions +5.5 on a few bets. The PERFECT bet. If I lose, that means the Bills are rolling. If I win, well, I win the bets….
I do have Bills to be exactly 4-1 after 5 games so for that bet a win is better than a loss.
I have Lions +5.5 on a few bets. The PERFECT bet. If I lose, that means the Bills are rolling. If I win, well, I win the bets….
I do have Bills to be exactly 4-1 after 5 games so for that bet a win is better than a loss.
September 17th, 2026 at 9:44:27 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOI’m making a bet specifically thanks (or no thanks?) to the ideas posted earlier here. Ohio State/Kent State is either -52 or -52.5, and O/U either 58.5 or 59.5. The highly correlated OSU/over is around +120. I’m getting +181 using the -52 but need to take the over 59.5. I’ll take any result, win or loss, except 56-3.
I have Lions +5.5 on a few bets. The PERFECT bet. If I lose, that means the Bills are rolling. If I win, well, I win the bets….
I do have Bills to be exactly 4-1 after 5 games so for that bet a win is better than a loss.
link to original post
Is Buffalo's record against the spread for home games much above the league average. I would assume so, but maybe the books have dialed it in.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
September 17th, 2026 at 5:02:38 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOI’m making a bet specifically thanks (or no thanks?) to the ideas posted earlier here. Ohio State/Kent State is either -52 or -52.5, and O/U either 58.5 or 59.5. The highly correlated OSU/over is around +120. I’m getting +181 using the -52 but need to take the over 59.5. I’ll take any result, win or loss, except 56-3.
I have Lions +5.5 on a few bets. The PERFECT bet. If I lose, that means the Bills are rolling. If I win, well, I win the bets….
I do have Bills to be exactly 4-1 after 5 games so for that bet a win is better than a loss.
link to original post
Is Buffalo's record against the spread for home games much above the league average. I would assume so, but maybe the books have dialed it in.
link to original post
I don’t think it’s more than the average NFL team.
Ed Oliver, their best defensive lineman, hurt himself during warmups. His being out moved the line…. zero points…
General managers should take note of that when deciding to pay or not pay big money to an interior defensive lineman….
I had $1 to bet on a longshot…. Got Lions D/ST to score first TD at 45-1. Needed a longshot ‘first TD’ player. Picked TeSlaa. I have so many different bets (+EV due to offers) that I frankly can’t remember most. I do know I have Lions ML that I win if they go up 7 at any point.
September 17th, 2026 at 5:15:24 PM
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I also often can't remember what I bet on
I will remember the nature of the offer and my search for proper legs if a sgp but not what I settled on. Often I avoid the money line!
I will remember the nature of the offer and my search for proper legs if a sgp but not what I settled on. Often I avoid the money line!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 17th, 2026 at 6:15:02 PM
permalink
Quote: SOOPOOI’m making a bet specifically thanks (or no thanks?) to the ideas posted earlier here. Ohio State/Kent State is either -52 or -52.5, and O/U either 58.5 or 59.5. The highly correlated OSU/over is around +120. I’m getting +181 using the -52 but need to take the over 59.5. I’ll take any result, win or loss, except 56-3.
I have Lions +5.5 on a few bets. The PERFECT bet. If I lose, that means the Bills are rolling. If I win, well, I win the bets….
I do have Bills to be exactly 4-1 after 5 games so for that bet a win is better than a loss.
link to original post
Turning into a beatdown. But, it ain't over till it's over...
September 18th, 2026 at 6:18:34 AM
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I found a tout on the web who offers some free picks
I don't wanna do the hard work to find good picks anymore
of course I won't pay for picks or recommend that anyone else does that
this tout got very positive reviews
their claim is that they win about 55% of picks ats (including free picks) which seems a reasonable, not a bragging type of claim
here are some of their free picks for week 3:
Texas Tech -7.5 over Houston
Clemson -3.5 over UNC
Kent State +52.5 over Ohio State
New Mexico + 22.5 over Oklahoma
Iowa State -23.5 over Bowling Green
North Texas + 3 over Texas State
Ole Miss + 3 over LSU
Sacramento +27.5 over N. Dakota State
.
I don't wanna do the hard work to find good picks anymore
of course I won't pay for picks or recommend that anyone else does that
this tout got very positive reviews
their claim is that they win about 55% of picks ats (including free picks) which seems a reasonable, not a bragging type of claim
here are some of their free picks for week 3:
Texas Tech -7.5 over Houston
Clemson -3.5 over UNC
Kent State +52.5 over Ohio State
New Mexico + 22.5 over Oklahoma
Iowa State -23.5 over Bowling Green
North Texas + 3 over Texas State
Ole Miss + 3 over LSU
Sacramento +27.5 over N. Dakota State
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
