Sports betting chatter
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: lilredrooster.
the above college picks went 6-4
Colts +2.5 over Steelers
Saints +2.5 over Vikings
Browns +2.5 over Jets
Ravens +3.5 over Falcons
49ers +3.5 over Seahawks
I’m assuming a typo and it’s Broncos -3.5.
no, the whole bet is a mistake - no action - sorry about that - I've taken them out on this post and on my OP
and adding one in it's place - 49ers +3.5 over Seahawks
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Quote: lilredrooster.
the college picks went 6-4
today:
Colts +2.5 over Steelers
Saints +2.5 over Vikings
Browns +2.5 over Jets
Ravens +3.5 over Falcons
49ers +3.5 over Seahawks
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There's still time to delete this post ;-)
Terrible beat for Survivor players who took the Giants or Commanders and lose on a tie
Quote: findingEVQuote: lilredrooster.
the college picks went 6-4
today:
Colts +2.5 over Steelers
Saints +2.5 over Vikings
Browns +2.5 over Jets
Ravens +3.5 over Falcons
49ers +3.5 over Seahawks
.
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There's still time to delete this post ;-)
Terrible beat for Survivor players who took the Giants or Commanders and lose on a tie
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Ties count as survival in the NFL Survivor contest I'm in. 89.44% of the field eliminated after 5 weeks (with Week 5 MNF still to go.)
Quote: findingEVQuote: lilredrooster.
the college picks went 6-4
today:
Colts +2.5 over Steelers
Saints +2.5 over Vikings
Browns +2.5 over Jets
Ravens +3.5 over Falcons
49ers +3.5 over Seahawks
.
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There's still time to delete this post ;-)
the 15 picks on college and the NFL on Saturday and Sunday went 8-7 - a tiny profit based on odds of -110
last week's picks on the NFL went 4-1 and my 3 NHL picks went 3-0
all told my recent picks have gone 15-8
gonna take a break
I'm kinna losing interest
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that happens when you have no skin in the gameQuote: lilredroosterQuote: findingEVQuote: lilredrooster.
the college picks went 6-4
today:
Colts +2.5 over Steelers
Saints +2.5 over Vikings
Browns +2.5 over Jets
Ravens +3.5 over Falcons
49ers +3.5 over Seahawks
.
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There's still time to delete this post ;-)
the 15 picks on college and the NFL on Saturday and Sunday went 8-7 - a tiny profit based on odds of -110
last week's picks on the NFL went 4-1 and my 3 NHL picks went 3-0
all told my recent picks have gone 15-8
gonna take a break
I'm kinna losing interest
.
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$100 returns $550 on site A
$422.50 returns $552.50 on site B.
I make around $30 for pushing a few buttons. Plus the site B bet is a good -EV bet for longevity. Points accrue on both sites as well.
I got another one just like this today for a little less $ but I’ll spare you the details.
It seems anyone with the slightest bit of mathematical aptitude can do this.
I tracked 60 picks from Pickswise - the NHL, and NCAAF and NFL (underdogs only - I believe they pick too many, about twice as many faves)
some of the NHL picks paid as little as -130, I wouldn't include it as a pick if it paid less than that
of those 60 picks they went 40-20
23 of the picks I posted here and they went 15-8
probably just luck or maybe not - I'm not really sure - I started tracking (but not posting) another 100 picks - so far they are 6-4
they are not touts at Pickswise - they don't sell picks - they make money from allowing sportsbooks to post their logo on their site
I will post the results after I have another 100 picks
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Can’t beat this today. NRFI Dodgers game -122 on FD. YRFI +125 Dodgers game on BetMGM. I needed some points on FD so made ‘big’ bets both ways to lock up a couple free dollars and the points.
Quote: findingEVSoopoo, are you locking up level 4 rewards on FD? Those are quite valuable. Also, I forget if I asked already, but you have some solid software to show you all these arbs automatically, right?
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No, and no! I’m level 3. And the only software I use is the space between my ears. Not that I’m inherently opposed to making it to level 4, nor am I against using software. I’d probably need my son to set it up for me!
My son is a computer programmer. A few years ago when it became legal to sports bet in my state and I with me just looking I found some ‘free money’ via overlapping lines, I asked him if there was a program that could scour my legal betting sites in real time and ‘ding’ whenever there was an opportunity. Nothing came of that conversation.
Quote: findingEVWhat you are describing exists many times over. My personal favorite is DarkHorseOdds. No more scouring -- it does it all for you.
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Thanks. I’ll try it.
Wow. Excuse my self-indulgence here but from beyond all hope my team just beat its hated arch-rival who was highly ranked and heavily favored. And not by a fluke or a bad call by the refs. We beat Bama on both sides of the ball; the Vols beat them decisively on the line of scrimmage on both defense and offense.
Vols are now 6-1 and I have no idea whether they will make the play-offs or not and at this moment I don't really care. Just very proud of our players and enjoying this wonderful moment. Wahooo!!!!!
Quote: gordonm888Tennessee 26 - Alabama 10
Wow. Excuse my self-indulgence here but from beyond all hope my team just beat its hated arch-rival who was highly ranked and heavily favored. And not by a fluke or a bad call by the refs. We beat Bama on both sides of the ball; the Vols beat them decisively on the line of scrimmage on both defense and offense.
Vols are now 6-1 and I have no idea whether they will make the play-offs or not and at this moment I don't really care. Just very proud of our players and enjoying this wonderful moment. Wahooo!!!!!
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Nice win. First time in history Alabama, Georgia, and Mizzou lose on the same day. (My son is a Mizzou grad).
Remind me to only bet ‘unders’ on season totals. I have Dart and Barkley parlayed…. It isn’t one of those with ‘injury protection’.
Only 4.1% of the contestants remain.
kinna amusing to me
no matter how sharp their written analysis is of the games -
it's pretty well known that very few tout or picking services can get over 50% correct ats
a few may do a lttle better than 50%
a 5 year old child just picking the name he likes best could do about as well as most of them_______________:)
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Or….. Even though his O/U for yards rushing is 55, I’m not going to give Cam Skatebo a SINGLE CARRY.
I’m wondering if that info got out to friends and relatives of the Giants players and coaches….. It was an obvious benching in response to Skatebo’s abysmal fumble against Washington the game before.
Quote: SOOPOOCoaches make a ‘game plan’ and install a few dozen or so plays for that week’s opponent. Like ‘we are going to throw more to our slot receiver against Safety John Doe for deep routes.’ Or ‘we are going to run running back Ralph Jones more than usual on sweep plays’.
Or….. Even though his O/U for yards rushing is 55, I’m not going to give Cam Skatebo a SINGLE CARRY.
I’m wondering if that info got out to friends and relatives of the Giants players and coaches….. It was an obvious benching in response to Skatebo’s abysmal fumble against Washington the game before.
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Did SooPoo have the over on Skatebo?
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOCoaches make a ‘game plan’ and install a few dozen or so plays for that week’s opponent. Like ‘we are going to throw more to our slot receiver against Safety John Doe for deep routes.’ Or ‘we are going to run running back Ralph Jones more than usual on sweep plays’.
Or….. Even though his O/U for yards rushing is 55, I’m not going to give Cam Skatebo a SINGLE CARRY.
I’m wondering if that info got out to friends and relatives of the Giants players and coaches….. It was an obvious benching in response to Skatebo’s abysmal fumble against Washington the game before.
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Did SooPoo have the over on Skatebo?
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No. And if I could have taken the ‘no’ on Skatebo TD I most certainly would have.
Not on my knowing he would get NO touches. But just figuring he’d get LESS touches
I’ve been making bank on Angel Reese points/rebounds Jordin Canada assists. I think ‘usage rate’ for the stars goes up a bunch in the Finals.
Yesterday saw Hornets +3.5 over Nets. I actually thought it was an error. Hornets supposed to be even a possible playoff team while Nets supposed to be vying for #1 draft pick. Bet it. Possibly somewhat due to rising star Kneuppel being injured? Anyway, it’s only + 1.5 this morning so I made a ‘good’ bet regardless.
Pickswise has interesting take on the game. Go through all the reasons Hornets should be favored. Then says ‘the line doesn’t lie’ and picks the Nets -1.5!
I could swear I signed up for more than 3 games, but when it was time to bet it vanished. Maybe I missed a deadline?
Quote: odiousgambitWas in on same nba bonus bet thing
I could swear I signed up for more than 3 games, but when it was time to bet it vanished. Maybe I missed a deadline?
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Perhaps. I think I made the bets 4 or 5 days in advance. Some of these ‘free’ games are also PITAs. Won’t let me select until 11am. I do my scouring usually way before then and have to come back later and remember.
Quote: SOOPOOCoaches make a ‘game plan’ and install a few dozen or so plays for that week’s opponent. Like ‘we are going to throw more to our slot receiver against Safety John Doe for deep routes.’ Or ‘we are going to run running back Ralph Jones more than usual on sweep plays’.
Or….. Even though his O/U for yards rushing is 55, I’m not going to give Cam Skatebo a SINGLE CARRY.
I’m wondering if that info got out to friends and relatives of the Giants players and coaches….. It was an obvious benching in response to Skatebo’s abysmal fumble against Washington the game before.
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Had the Giants been up by ten, I think Skatebo would have gotten a carry or two, but being down 34-10 and switching QBs affected the decision making.
Did they warn players this was going to be called this year?Quote: billryanCam Skattebo had a hell of a bounce-back game today and helped the Giants win as 10-point underdogs on the road. In a move I've rarely seen, he was called for unnecessary roughness on someone who tried to tackle him.
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Quote: billryanCam Skattebo had a hell of a bounce-back game today and helped the Giants win as 10-point underdogs on the road. In a move I've rarely seen, he was called for unnecessary roughness on someone who tried to tackle him.
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It was more specifically lowering his helmet to directly hit the defender in the helmet. Probably happens in some fashion 20+ times per NFL weekend and is called never on players not named Skattebo.
Super fun bets today. Instead of taking free $5-$10 using Caesar’s profit boosts I’m going for two home runs. Using Suns +10.5/Thunder -9.5 either win $3 or if exactly 10 win $165
Similar for Bulls game. Either win $2 for all outcomes except total of 238. If exactly 238 win $160
I’ve been using the ‘Pickswise’ picks with true success. I don’t keep statistics but since starting to use them I’ve hit a bunch of 3 leg parlays.
I still think the above described offers are +EV, but just marginally, to repeat. For Kelly considerations* I have cut back though on how much I bet.
* I play in a way that I never want to see much bankroll shrink, it's important to me so Kelly Criterion is important [though I just wing it]
Quote: odiousgambitI decided I was overbetting the big slew of 50% boost offers on 3 leg parlays that I am getting. It can easily be shown that a 50% boost on a normal bet, normal HE, is monumentally +EV , but for same game parlays I have pretty much determined it is marginal. For sure if you treat any parlay as a 'black box' where you have combined 3 bets that are -EV , to be left alone to complete and not re-examined, you are mimicking the act of simply increasing the HE [even though what is actually going on is not that]. But for a not-same-game parlay, at least the HE and the effect of boosting the payoff can be calculated. Not so with a same-game, where IMO it is fair to assume they go out of their way to screw you. It is true they have to consider coordination, but they see it where it isn't and get no scrutiny for what they are doing either.
I still think the above described offers are +EV, but just marginally, to repeat. For Kelly considerations* I have cut back though on how much I bet.
* I play in a way that I never want to see much bankroll shrink, it's important to me so Kelly Criterion is important [though I just wing it]
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A lot of those bet offers are ‘SGP or SGPx’ 3 legs. Without looking hard at all found a 2 leg SGP both legs -110, and a separate choice at -110. If no correlation fair odds would be +700 on those 3 ‘coin toss’ bets. But it of course was less, in this case +595. But a 50% PB gets you to +892. That’s enough +EV to make $$ off of quite easily.
Yeah, if you take 6 guys to get an MLB hit at around -200 each, the 50% PB likely isn’t enough to get you to +EV.
I had a 10% PB today and after some (not easy!) looking around was able to guarantee a (VERY) small win.
Expert hint….. if I’m making a ‘random’ 3 leg pointspread (-110) parlay, you can almost always find 1/2 point (NBA, NCAAF) on the site you need that is better than the other sites. So might as well pick them giving you maybe an extra % or 2 in +EV once the profit boosts kicks in.
this is why you can overbet it ... and I was
You're right that SGPx can save you, I am seeing little of those. I'm not complaining, the good offers go away but then one day they pile them on. I'm enjoying it. That NBA offer to get free bets for each 3 pointer was nice. I lost every initial qualifying bet but cashed on 2 out of 3 of the free bets for around +300 ea ... came out way ahead, and it was fun to have the anticipation of maybe coming out ahead or not once the initials bombed
OK so It wouldn't have been fun if none of those bets won . HA
Is that with the usual $10 wager amount cap? The +892 figure after promo “boost” is correct. And that is an implied probability of 10.1%. And the probability (50% x 50% x 50%) for the three independent events is 12.5%. So a ten dollar wager has an expected return of $0.24 (twenty-four cents). Making it one of the more lucrative ones I've seen.Quote: SOOPOOA lot of those bet offers are ‘SGP or SGPx’ 3 legs. Without looking hard at all found a 2 leg SGP both legs -110, and a separate choice at -110. If no correlation fair odds would be +700 on those 3 ‘coin toss’ bets. But it of course was less, in this case +595. But a 50% PB gets you to +892. That’s enough +EV to make $$ off of quite easily.
...<SNIP>...
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you can't use implied probability on a boost. As far as actual probability if you choose -110 an assumption that each step is 50-50 is reasonableQuote: DrawingDeadIs that with the usual $10 wager amount cap? The +892 figure after promo “boost” is correct. And that is an implied probability of 10.1%. And the probability (50% x 50% x 50%) for the three independent events is 12.5%. So a ten dollar wager has an expected return of $0.24 (twenty-four cents). Making it one of the more lucrative ones I've seen.Quote: SOOPOOA lot of those bet offers are ‘SGP or SGPx’ 3 legs. Without looking hard at all found a 2 leg SGP both legs -110, and a separate choice at -110. If no correlation fair odds would be +700 on those 3 ‘coin toss’ bets. But it of course was less, in this case +595. But a 50% PB gets you to +892. That’s enough +EV to make $$ off of quite easily.
...<SNIP>...
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Yes you most definitely can, and should if you do not posess the magic "Abra-kadabra-shazaam!" wand of "guesstimation." Implied probability of the (in this case final 'boosted') odds at which the parlay is to be booked & paid is the simple straightforward arithmetic calculation of the frequency at which the wager must win to break even. It is an arithmetic absolute; a mathematical certainty. It is the frequency at which: If it doesn't win at least that often, you (eventually) lose. The win% at which, for that price (payout), you make (or don't lose) money. If we are not ChumpChange, and actual money is going to be involved.Quote: odiousgambityou can't use implied probability on a boost. As far as actual probability if you choose -110 an assumption that each step is 50-50 is reasonableQuote: DrawingDeadIs that with the usual $10 wager amount cap? The +892 figure after promo “boost” is correct. And that is an implied probability of 10.1%. And the probability (50% x 50% x 50%) for the three independent events is 12.5%. So a ten dollar wager has an expected return of $0.24 (twenty-four cents). Making it one of the more lucrative ones I've seen.Quote: SOOPOOA lot of those bet offers are ‘SGP or SGPx’ 3 legs. Without looking hard at all found a 2 leg SGP both legs -110, and a separate choice at -110. If no correlation fair odds would be +700 on those 3 ‘coin toss’ bets. But it of course was less, in this case +595. But a 50% PB gets you to +892. That’s enough +EV to make $$ off of quite easily.
...<SNIP>...
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But, that's only if one is into getting distracted by that sort of thing. Or, if not, then I guess it becomes a variation of the Schrödinger's Cat problem. So in that case, one definitely should not want to see it, because that could potentially kill it - and for such folks, definitely do not under any circumstances ever make the two mouse clicks within one's wagering account to see ROI of actual results over any significant time frame. 'Cuz that could kill the cat.
Quote: A. Zillion Gamblin' Somebodys...true success. I don’t keep statistics but since starting to use them I’ve hit a bunch...
Quote: odiousgambitI decided I was overbetting the big slew of 50% boost offers on 3 leg parlays that I am getting. It can easily be shown that a 50% boost on a normal bet, normal HE, is monumentally +EV , but for same game parlays I have pretty much determined it is marginal. For sure if you treat any parlay as a 'black box' where you have combined 3 bets that are -EV , to be left alone to complete and not re-examined, you are mimicking the act of simply increasing the HE [even though what is actually going on is not that]. But for a not-same-game parlay, at least the HE and the effect of boosting the payoff can be calculated. Not so with a same-game, where IMO it is fair to assume they go out of their way to screw you.
You can calculate the overround on a same-game parlay but calculating the expected loss on betting on possible combinations of a given 3-leg parlay at the adjusted odds. When you factor in the bonus it is an under-round ie guaranteed payout. That's usually true with 25% let alone 50%. Just go for binary outcome bets.
It is trivial to prove some bets in the sequence must have positive expectation given the compound wagers do, and usually it is fairly easy to work out where the lion's share of vig is historically.
I’m not liking my Rays pick tonight..About as bad as my Dream/over parlay….
I maintain that what may be true with parlays is not to be expected with SGPs. ... those SGPs oosted 25% make money for the house I swear.... I'll now go to my grave believing that, perhaps deemed a fool!Quote: GrahamThorpQuote: odiousgambitI decided I was overbetting the big slew of 50% boost offers on 3 leg parlays that I am getting. It can easily be shown that a 50% boost on a normal bet, normal HE, is monumentally +EV , but for same game parlays I have pretty much determined it is marginal. For sure if you treat any parlay as a 'black box' where you have combined 3 bets that are -EV , to be left alone to complete and not re-examined, you are mimicking the act of simply increasing the HE [even though what is actually going on is not that]. But for a not-same-game parlay, at least the HE and the effect of boosting the payoff can be calculated. Not so with a same-game, where IMO it is fair to assume they go out of their way to screw you.
You can calculate the overround on a same-game parlay but calculating the expected loss on betting on possible combinations of a given 3-leg parlay at the adjusted odds. When you factor in tlohe bonus it is an under-round ie guaranteed payout. That's usually true with 25% let alone 50%. Just go for binary outcome bets.
It is trivial to prove some bets in the sequence must have positive expectation given the compound wagers do, and usually it is fairly easy to work out where the lion's share of vig is historically.
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Quote: odiousgambitI maintain that what may be true with parlays is not to be expected with SGPs. ... those SGPs oosted 25% make money for the house I swear.... I'll now go to my grave believing that, perhaps deemed a fool!Quote: GrahamThorpQuote: odiousgambitI decided I was overbetting the big slew of 50% boost offers on 3 leg parlays that I am getting. It can easily be shown that a 50% boost on a normal bet, normal HE, is monumentally +EV , but for same game parlays I have pretty much determined it is marginal. For sure if you treat any parlay as a 'black box' where you have combined 3 bets that are -EV , to be left alone to complete and not re-examined, you are mimicking the act of simply increasing the HE [even though what is actually going on is not that]. But for a not-same-game parlay, at least the HE and the effect of boosting the payoff can be calculated. Not so with a same-game, where IMO it is fair to assume they go out of their way to screw you.
You can calculate the overround on a same-game parlay but calculating the expected loss on betting on possible combinations of a given 3-leg parlay at the adjusted odds. When you factor in tlohe bonus it is an under-round ie guaranteed payout. That's usually true with 25% let alone 50%. Just go for binary outcome bets.
It is trivial to prove some bets in the sequence must have positive expectation given the compound wagers do, and usually it is fairly easy to work out where the lion's share of vig is historically.
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If you mean "every time I bet one of these damned things I expect to lose", yes, of course, I feel your pain.
My point was simply that there has to be positive ev there, because if you get 8 guys betting every possible combination with a 50% promo they would be certain to make money. I think that's important to be clear about on a more math-based forum, much as it feels like flushing money down the toilet.
Quote: GrahamThorpQuote: odiousgambitI maintain that what may be true with parlays is not to be expected with SGPs. ... those SGPs oosted 25% make money for the house I swear.... I'll now go to my grave believing that, perhaps deemed a fool!Quote: GrahamThorpQuote: odiousgambitI decided I was overbetting the big slew of 50% boost offers on 3 leg parlays that I am getting. It can easily be shown that a 50% boost on a normal bet, normal HE, is monumentally +EV , but for same game parlays I have pretty much determined it is marginal. For sure if you treat any parlay as a 'black box' where you have combined 3 bets that are -EV , to be left alone to complete and not re-examined, you are mimicking the act of simply increasing the HE [even though what is actually going on is not that]. But for a not-same-game parlay, at least the HE and the effect of boosting the payoff can be calculated. Not so with a same-game, where IMO it is fair to assume they go out of their way to screw you.
You can calculate the overround on a same-game parlay but calculating the expected loss on betting on possible combinations of a given 3-leg parlay at the adjusted odds. When you factor in tlohe bonus it is an under-round ie guaranteed payout. That's usually true with 25% let alone 50%. Just go for binary outcome bets.
It is trivial to prove some bets in the sequence must have positive expectation given the compound wagers do, and usually it is fairly easy to work out where the lion's share of vig is historically.
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If you mean "every time I bet one of these damned things I expect to lose", yes, of course, I feel your pain.
My point was simply that there has to be positive ev there, because if you get 8 guys betting every possible combination with a 50% promo they would be certain to make money. I think that's important to be clear about on a more math-based forum, much as it feels like flushing money down the toilet.
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Bingo. Of course you will lose far more parlays than you win. GT is correct on his assessment for the 50% boosts. I agree it’s no guarantee that you can turn your 25% SGPs into positive EV. That requires work, and sometimes I’m willing to do it for the $ or two in +EV. Sometimes not. I won the king of the end zone promo. No mention yet on my DK account how much in free bets I’ll be getting. I’m putting the over/under at $128.
Edit. Only $66.
This week it was Billy Horschel boosted from +1400 to +1700. Out of the 120 golfers entered, one golfer played a few holes and then withdrew with ‘an illness’. Guess who? I bet $1 on him. I think it will be a loss, not a ‘void’, since he did start.
I have a ‘big’ (by my low standards) parlay that only needs a WMU win to hit. They are the team that ‘beat’ Michigan earlier this year so good by MAC standards. I’m trying hard not to hedge…
For MLB, some sites have a player to get 1+ home run, score 1+ run, get 1+ hit, and/or get 1+ RBI as separate things you can tie together in a same game parlay. Then you can just hedge with that player not hitting a home run.
bet365 is generous for what is allowed, while DK will irritate you with not allowing much even if correlation is dubious. But they all invariably adjust for correlation on a non-transparent basis. This in fact is why they love SPGs and you see so much of themQuote: findingEVFor the 3-leg SGP boosts, some sites allow you to have legs that pretty tightly correlate. For Bet365, for example, I like to bet an NFL underdog, then that team to score over 6.5 points and the favorite to score under 44.5 points. Then I just hedge with the favorite on the money line on another site. Very rare for an NFL team to win scoring 6 or fewer points or lose with 45+ points, which is where I would lose both bets.
For MLB, some sites have a player to get 1+ home run, score 1+ run, get 1+ hit, and/or get 1+ RBI as separate things you can tie together in a same game parlay. Then you can just hedge with that player not hitting a home run.
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