Sports betting chatter
I am wondering if my bet will be voided? I wonder if there was a flood of bets like mine that triggered someone to look at it? I’ll keep the forum updated.
Quote: SOOPOOSo just had an offer that required me to make a $10 same game parlay. Went online, checked the odds, and to me it looked like they had the wrong team favored! So I took the points on the team I thought should be favored and placed the bet. I then thought this is HUGELY +EV, and re entered the same game, but less than a minute later they now have the correct team as favorite.
I am wondering if my bet will be voided? I wonder if there was a flood of bets like mine that triggered someone to look at it? I’ll keep the forum updated.
link to original post
Was it on Draftkings? They have traditionally good about letting mistakes stand. I'm sure that would change if they had a multi-million dollar exposure on it.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOSo just had an offer that required me to make a $10 same game parlay. Went online, checked the odds, and to me it looked like they had the wrong team favored! So I took the points on the team I thought should be favored and placed the bet. I then thought this is HUGELY +EV, and re entered the same game, but less than a minute later they now have the correct team as favorite.
I am wondering if my bet will be voided? I wonder if there was a flood of bets like mine that triggered someone to look at it? I’ll keep the forum updated.
link to original post
Was it on Draftkings? They have traditionally good about letting mistakes stand. I'm sure that would change if they had a multi-million dollar exposure on it.
link to original post
If it hits I win $27. I don’t think they are very worried. I think I won’t divulge which site. I’m not sure why!
I’m more interested in how it got fixed!? Is there a human that is alerted when unusually high volume of bets Gomes in on one side? Or any number of other possibilities….
Quote: SOOPOO
I’m more interested in how it got fixed!? Is there a human that is alerted when unusually high volume of bets Gomes in on one side? Or any number of other possibilities….
Yes, generally when action is lopsided by a lot a manager will get notified.
Quote: wizardofbuffalohow did it work out ???
link to original post
The bet seems to still be there. It’s for an NBA game on Christmas. I’m getting 3 1/2 points on the Grizzlies instead of laying 3 /2 points.
400 to collect 2,250, if my "Eagles x Packers" bonus bet wins.
400 to collect 2,144, if my "Giants x Texans" bonus bet wins.
Note: All bets are at the ML
Quote: ksdjdjI received some bonus funds , so I had the following:
400 to collect 2,250, if my "Eagles x Packers" bonus bet wins.
400 to collect 2,144, if my "Giants x Texans" bonus bet wins.
Note: All bets are at the ML
link to original post
I had $25 free bet last night. Parlayed Utah State bball +7.5 and Avalanche ML. That’s $60 for me! Almost makes up for my Mizzou bets. That’s on me. While watching game they kept mentioning second string playing because so and so isn’t…. Mizzou had gobs of false start and holding penalties on the substitute offensive linemen.
It’s not me, but SOMEONE is making a boatload with all the information on which teams are more decimated by ‘pre NFL’ or ‘transfer portal’ sit outs.
Edit…. Humiliating admission. I have Utah St +7.5 in football, not basketball!!!!! So bet is still open…. So no $60 for me yet…
My biggest single bet today is Bears +8.5. Weather should even things out. Bills 24. Bears 16.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjI received some bonus funds , so I had the following:
400 to collect 2,250, if my "Eagles x Packers" bonus bet wins.
400 to collect 2,144, if my "Giants x Texans" bonus bet wins.
Note: All bets are at the ML
link to original post
I had $25 free bet last night. Parlayed Utah State bball +7.5 and Avalanche ML. That’s $60 for me! Almost makes up for my Mizzou bets. That’s on me. While watching game they kept mentioning second string playing because so and so isn’t…. Mizzou had gobs of false start and holding penalties on the substitute offensive linemen.
It’s not me, but SOMEONE is making a boatload with all the information on which teams are more decimated by ‘pre NFL’ or ‘transfer portal’ sit outs.
Edit…. Humiliating admission. I have Utah St +7.5 in football, not basketball!!!!! So bet is still open…. So no $60 for me yet…
My biggest single bet today is Bears +8.5. Weather should even things out. Bills 24. Bears 16.
link to original post
I really like under 40.5 in the Bears/Bills game today.
Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjI received some bonus funds , so I had the following:
400 to collect 2,250, if my "Eagles x Packers" bonus bet wins.
400 to collect 2,144, if my "Giants x Texans" bonus bet wins.
Note: All bets are at the ML
link to original post
I had $25 free bet last night. Parlayed Utah State bball +7.5 and Avalanche ML. That’s $60 for me! Almost makes up for my Mizzou bets. That’s on me. While watching game they kept mentioning second string playing because so and so isn’t…. Mizzou had gobs of false start and holding penalties on the substitute offensive linemen.
It’s not me, but SOMEONE is making a boatload with all the information on which teams are more decimated by ‘pre NFL’ or ‘transfer portal’ sit outs.
Edit…. Humiliating admission. I have Utah St +7.5 in football, not basketball!!!!! So bet is still open…. So no $60 for me yet…
My biggest single bet today is Bears +8.5. Weather should even things out. Bills 24. Bears 16.
link to original post
I really like under 40.5 in the Bears/Bills game today.
link to original post
Not all my NFL bets have to be "serious ones".
So, I had $400 on the Bills' +1.5 @ -400*** .
***: At the time of the bet, the best ML available to me was also -400 (for the Favorite, when the ML is shorter than ~ -200, they sometimes have the "+1.5 alt spread" the same as the ML, for some reason (?) ).
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Extra:
. Bills' have the ball, but the score is currently Bills' down 6 to 10, with ~3:15 left in the 2nd Q.
. I think the last time I took an "alt spread +1.5" on a Favorite, was on the Vikings' game (the "biggest come-back" one).
----
Update (made just after 0:51 left in the 2nd Q, for the Bills' game):
Don't want to jinx it for you, but that Missed FG, should be good^^^ for your under 40.5 value bet (or pick, if you didn't bet?).
^^^: Not watching the game, so just going by the weather fore-cast from 6 hours ago, but I can't see any + value in them scoring 25+ pts in the 2nd half ( at least in regulation).
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Update 2 (score is currently 21-10 Bills, ~ half-way through the 3rd Q):
Sorry for putting the "mocker" on you, even though the pre-game under can still hit@@@.
@@@: At the time of this update, there is probably somewhere around 30% chance of hitting, since the live "50/50" total (with one 'book) is 45.5, ATM.
I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out
the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
.
Quote: lilredrooster________________
I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out
the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
.
link to original post
Why don’t you just post your pick on this thread? Give them in advance and I’ll bet with you!
Quote: SOOPOO
Why don’t you just post your pick on this thread?
link to original post
sorry, it's a lot easier for you to click on to that site than it is for me to post on 2 different sites
hey - and btw - don't you live in Buffalo__________?____________it's a disaster there right now isn't it_____________?
hope you're okay
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOO
Why don’t you just post your pick on this thread?
link to original post
sorry, it's a lot easier for you to click on to that site than it is for me to post on 2 different sites
hey - and btw - don't you live in Buffalo__________?____________it's a disaster there right now isn't it_____________?
hope you're okay
.
link to original post
I live in Williamsville, suburb of Buffalo. My street wasn’t plowed until a few hours ago. We stocked up, as it wasn’t a surprise. My street had 3 1/2 feet of snow if I had to guess. I had to cross my street (50 yards?) to help some elderly neighbors and took me 5-10 minutes to wade through the snow.
I felt that as long as we didn’t lose power it was not a big deal. We did lose power for 5 hours one night. House temp only dropped from 71 to 64. Lost TV/WiFi for a 10 hour stretch the next day.
The problem was with those who ignored the CLEAR warnings not to go out the first night the blizzard started. Many got stranded for days. And no emergency services for a few days, so if you had a heart attack, you were short of luck.
I have been able to sportsbet the entire time. And even when the WIFI went out, could watch on my phone. I hate watching stuff that I could watch on my 55 inch TV on my 5 inch phone.
My plow guy is AMAZING. He comes with a truck with a regular plow. Then he also uses an enclosed riding snowblower vehicle. And hand shovels some too.
As far as sports betting. I have total goals Man U game over 2.5. It looked like I won in 1st half! But the ubiquitous offsides cancelled the 3rd goal. 35 minutes left and I need ONE goal!
Quote: ksdjdjI had $3k on the Cowboys' -10.5 @ $1.90, i think it will go to ~ -12.5 (can you still get -9.5 @ -110 at BetMGM NJ?)
link to original post
I can get Cowboys -11
Or Titans +12
Both at -110.
9.5 is long gone!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjI had $3k on the Cowboys' -10.5 @ $1.90, i think it will go to ~ -12.5 (can you still get -9.5 @ -110 at BetMGM NJ?)
link to original post
I can get Cowboys -11
Or Titans +12
Both at -110.
9.5 is long gone!
link to original post
I thought that was probably the case (I wasn't using a direct link to BetMGM, so I was just relying on other sites that supposedly post "near up to date info").
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjI had $3k on the Cowboys' -10.5 @ $1.90, i think it will go to ~ -12.5 (can you still get -9.5 @ -110 at BetMGM NJ?)
link to original post
I can get Cowboys -11
Or Titans +12
Both at -110.
9.5 is long gone!
link to original post
I thought that was probably the case (I wasn't using a direct link to BetMGM, so I was just relying on other sites that supposedly post "near up to date info").
link to original post
I personally think the Cowboys' should be somewhere between -13 to -13.5 for this matchup***.
***: Before adjustments, I had the Cowboys' about -8.
Note: This estimate assumes D Henry ("Doubtful") is in, as I haven't worked out an estimate for him yet (if he is out, obviously it will make the 'boys estimated spread better than -13.5).
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
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(snip)
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I personally think the Cowboys' should be somewhere between -13 to -13.5 for this matchup***.
(snip)
Note: This estimate assumes D Henry ("Doubtful") is in, as I haven't worked out an estimate for him yet (if he is out, obviously it will make the 'boys estimated spread better than -13.5).
link to original post
Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
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)snip)
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I personally think the Cowboys' should be somewhere between -13 to -13.5 for this matchup***.
(snip)
Note: This estimate assumes D Henry ("Doubtful") is in, as I haven't worked out an estimate for him yet (if he is out, obviously it will make the 'boys estimated spread better than -13.5).
link to original post
Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
link to original post
It seems like Titans would actually forfeit the game if they were allowed to. They are more likely to hand the ball off to me than Derrick Henry.
FanDuel hooked me with Cowboys ML/ Prescott o 199.5 passing yards at even money. Alerted a friend who suggested if Cowboys up big Prescott might not even play second half. So chicken shit me hedged with bet on Prescott under 237.5. I win a little if over 237.5. Win a lot is between 200 and 237. Lose a little if under 200. And lose a lot if Cowboys lose and over 237.5!
I have one parlay including Willis rushing yards so hopefully that leg is ignored. I think if he plays one snap I lose that entire parlay!
Until I started this betting journey I wasn’t aware of how much ‘information’ that I may not be privy to is out there!
Just checked. Line is now 14!!!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: ksdjdjQuote: SOOPOOQuote: ksdjdj(snip)
link to original post
(snip)
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)snip)
link to original post
I personally think the Cowboys' should be somewhere between -13 to -13.5 for this matchup***.
(snip)
Note: This estimate assumes D Henry ("Doubtful") is in, as I haven't worked out an estimate for him yet (if he is out, obviously it will make the 'boys estimated spread better than -13.5).
link to original post
Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
link to original post
It seems like Titans would actually forfeit the game if they were allowed to. They are more likely to hand the ball off to me than Derrick Henry.
FanDuel hooked me with Cowboys ML/ Prescott o 199.5 passing yards at even money. Alerted a friend who suggested if Cowboys up big Prescott might not even play second half. So chicken shit me hedged with bet on Prescott under 237.5. I win a little if over 237.5. Win a lot is between 200 and 237. Lose a little if under 200. And lose a lot if Cowboys lose and over 237.5!
I have one parlay including Willis rushing yards so hopefully that leg is ignored. I think if he plays one snap I lose that entire parlay!
Until I started this betting journey I wasn’t aware of how much ‘information’ that I may not be privy to is out there!
Just checked. Line is now 14!!!
link to original post
I got a "nice chunk of a bet" at the new line of 14.5:
The 'dog was +14.5 @ $1.93
The Fav' was -14.5 @ $2.15
Even though I still want the 'Boys to beat the 10.5 spread, the best result for me is if they win by 11-14 (as I win an extra $650^^^ in that scenario).
^^^: If we treat my earlier bet separate from these ones, then I basically got $400 on the Titans' +14.5 @ +162.5 (lose 400 or win 650).
Quote: VegasriderAnyone play the 10 pt teaser parlays? WH you can bet off the board getting additional 10 pts either on the sides or total but you must pick 3 legs and you lay minus 120. I have been having pretty good success with these parlays. Even for those who buy an extra half point you lay more juice.
link to original post
I haven't played teasers' in a while, but it should be just a "+ play", if you think the odds for each leg are ~ -450 (or better).
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Comment(s);
. Check the "Teaser / NFL" section on the WoO for an idea of what they were worth for that period of data used.
. Generally you should follow the tips there (for example don't cross^^^ the zero, if teasing the Favorite).
^^^: The only possible exceptions to this could be:
. if you are teasing a "-3 pt Fav' and manage to get +7.5" or
. if you are teasing a "-7 pt Fav' and manage to get +3.5" (???)
???: Again, haven't looked at teasers' in a while, so I don't know if these possible exceptions are + value or not.
Quote: ksdjdj
Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
link to original post
How do you even give a rating to Dobbs? He has only been on the team for a week. I remember him playing pretty well in the Senior bowl about 5 years ago but I don't really remember him playing at all since then.
Quote: DRichQuote: ksdjdj
Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
link to original post
How do you even give a rating to Dobbs? He has only been on the team for a week. I remember him playing pretty well in the Senior bowl about 5 years ago but I don't really remember him playing at all since then.
link to original post
Like most things, if you haven't seen them play much (or at all) in the NFL, they are closer to a "guess" than an actual rating.
Note 1: On paper at least, "he can't be worse" than the way M Willis is playing, ATM.
Note 2: I was "way off" early in the season with the current QB for the Seahawks' , though (and maybe some others' ?).
I did misinterpret the Willis benching/Dobbs playing angle. When I first heard about it I thought they were just tanking the game. Not realizing they were just looking for someone better than Willis!
So what odds could you have gotten pre season on a Purdy-Dobbs Super Bowl?!? Around the same likelihood as 18 yo’s in a row!
Quote: SOOPOOIt basically worked out for me last night. The parlay with Willis was a 6 legger which became a 5 legger and won. Had other parlays including Gallup, Shultz, and Lamb over yards which also all hit. The bets I lost were my hedges….
I did misinterpret the Willis benching/Dobbs playing angle. When I first heard about it I thought they were just tanking the game. Not realizing they were just looking for someone better than Willis!
So what odds could you have gotten pre season on a Purdy-Dobbs Super Bowl?!? Around the same likelihood as 18 yo’s in a row!
link to original post
I think the Titans played "pretty well" overall, and the only real "negative" (besides losing) was the penalty differential^^^.
^^^; Just going by the Yards Per Play, Total Yards etc, I would have guessed the score should have been ~21-19, to the 'Boys.
Note / Reminder: A few Titans Players' were basically "auditioning for a spot on one of the other 31 teams", so in other words trying to put in their "best effort", in that game.
2022 summary. Up on all 5. Around what I’d make if I worked at McDonalds full time.
Made Diamond on Caesars
Made Gold on DraftKings.
Lowest on BetMG.
Level 3 (does you nothing) on BetRivers
FanDuel doesn’t seem to have anything at my level.
After today no gambling as Florida is not New York State. Resume February.
Quote: SOOPOO
After today no gambling as Florida is not New York State. Resume February.
Don't rub it in. Betting the bowls and NCAA Basketball tournament are my favorite times of the year.
Another coach, considered great, blowing it. Lincoln Riley has his QB hand off ball 4 yards deep in end zone. You guessed it. Safety. Was up 8 before safety so worst they could have been without safety is a tie. Have QB attempt quick pass x 3. Clock was not a factor. Somehow the Neanderthals think running ball up the middle for maybe 1 yard is a good call.
Quote: SOOPOODRich must be in heaven! Tulane AMAZING comeback against USC.
Another coach, considered great, blowing it. Lincoln Riley has his QB hand off ball 4 yards deep in end zone. You guessed it. Safety. Was up 8 before safety so worst they could have been without safety is a tie. Have QB attempt quick pass x 3. Clock was not a factor. Somehow the Neanderthals think running ball up the middle for maybe 1 yard is a good call.
link to original post
It was an exciting comeback. I thought the should have brought the QB under center and done a QB sneak.
Now, we just need the Utes to win the Rose Bowl to complete my day.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOODRich must be in heaven! Tulane AMAZING comeback against USC.
Another coach, considered great, blowing it. Lincoln Riley has his QB hand off ball 4 yards deep in end zone. You guessed it. Safety. Was up 8 before safety so worst they could have been without safety is a tie. Have QB attempt quick pass x 3. Clock was not a factor. Somehow the Neanderthals think running ball up the middle for maybe 1 yard is a good call.
link to original post
It was an exciting comeback. I thought the should have brought the QB under center and done a QB sneak.
Now, we just need the Utes to win the Rose Bowl to complete my day.
link to original post
I’m now all in on the Bills. Allen 250yds passing/ Bills money line is +325 on BetMGM.
Frankly, I had planned on betting on the Bengals. Figure the $$$ I’d hope to lose would be insignificant compared to joy of Bills victory.
I have a bunch of yearlong bets on the Bills that this game basically will decide.
Diggs over 100 receptions. (Already won)
Bills 6-0 versus AFC East. (Already lost).
Bills Super Bowl win (got 11-1!)
Bills #1 AFC seed. (They need to win both remaining games)
Bills best regular season record. (If they win both worst I can do is a tie which is a win just reduced payout)
Josh Allen most passing yards. (More likely to see those 18 yo’s in a row now.). He was actually leading after I think the 11th week, then Mahomes crushed him.
2000 yards rushing for Singletary/Allen/Cook. 99% chance. They only need around 110 with two games to go.
Bills 31. Bengals 30. Allen 301 yds. Burrow 326 yards. Both Allen and Burrow rush for a TD.
Quote: VegasriderAnyone play the 10 pt teaser parlays? WH you can bet off the board getting additional 10 pts either on the sides or total but you must pick 3 legs and you lay minus 120. I have been having pretty good success with these parlays. Even for those who buy an extra half point you lay more juice.
Need the points to matter in 32% of games. Hard to find 10 points that can add up to that amount, since even 4, 6, 10, 14 are only to land 2.5 to 3% of the time. I think totals in the 30s to go over can be good bets in these, because these tend to have the biggest discrepancy between the median and mean. Think of a 1q team total of 0.5, there is still a very good chance the team could score 7 and go way over. Even endless three and out games can finish 16-13 or 14-13 and cover. Underdogs of 14 to 17 have been coming up recently that might be ok in some situations.
The +100 from the 2000s and the -110 from the 2010s were definitely a lot better.
Quote: lilredrooster________________
I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out
the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
link to original post
____________
I'm done - much work to find just one pick I like - need a break
hope you guys caught some winners
FINAL REPORT
spread & o/u_________18-13__________58% winners
moneyline_______7-2
all moneyline wagers paid out more than 1/2 and most paid much more
based on 1 unit bets
40 units bet
21.22 units won
15 lost
net profit + 6.22 units
R.O.I. = 15.5%
all picks are documented and time stamped at the link above
.
that’s good! Do you think what you do is repeatable? Are you planning on killing it next year as well?Quote: lilredroosterQuote: lilredrooster________________
I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out
the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
link to original post
____________
I'm done - much work to find just one pick I like - need a break
hope you guys caught some winners
FINAL REPORT
spread & o/u_________18-13__________58% winners
moneyline_______7-2
all moneyline wagers paid out more than 1/2 and most paid much more
based on 1 unit bets
40 units bet
21.22 units won
15 lost
net profit + 6.22 units
R.O.I. = 15.5%
all picks are documented and time stamped at the link above
.
link to original post
I almost hit 48% on my even money type bets..
Quote: SOOPOOthat’s good! Do you think what you do is repeatable? Are you planning on killing it next year as well?Quote: lilredroosterQuote: lilredrooster________________
I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out
the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
link to original post
____________
I'm done - much work to find just one pick I like - need a break
hope you guys caught some winners
FINAL REPORT
spread & o/u_________18-13__________58% winners
moneyline_______7-2
all moneyline wagers paid out more than 1/2 and most paid much more
based on 1 unit bets
40 units bet
21.22 units won
15 lost
net profit + 6.22 units
R.O.I. = 15.5%
all picks are documented and time stamped at the link above
.
link to original post
I almost hit 48% on my even money type bets..
link to original post
well, I now have between the old ones and these - 74 documented picks out there now - and also many others that I didn't publicly post
it could just be luck but I would bet I could repeat something similar
not sure I want to - as I said it was a lot of work - it was fun for a few weeks then it got real tiring - 95% of the lines - I can't find anything that interests me - they're real tight
thanks for the kind words
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOthat’s good! Do you think what you do is repeatable? Are you planning on killing it next year as well?Quote: lilredroosterQuote: lilredrooster________________
I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out
the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
link to original post
____________
I'm done - much work to find just one pick I like - need a break
hope you guys caught some winners
FINAL REPORT
spread & o/u_________18-13__________58% winners
moneyline_______7-2
all moneyline wagers paid out more than 1/2 and most paid much more
based on 1 unit bets
40 units bet
21.22 units won
15 lost
net profit + 6.22 units
R.O.I. = 15.5%
all picks are documented and time stamped at the link above
.
link to original post
I almost hit 48% on my even money type bets..
link to original post
well, I now have between the old ones and these - 74 documented picks out there now - and also many others that I didn't publicly post
it could just be luck but I would bet I could repeat something similar
not sure I want to - as I said it was a lot of work - it was fun for a few weeks then it got real tiring - 95% of the lines - I can't find anything that interests me - they're real tight
thanks for the kind words
.
link to original post
Why not treat it as work and schedule regular vacations from it.
First few days back few opportunities. Really only modest offers on NBA and CBB. DK is having the ‘up 10 you win’ on NBA . I’ve taken 3 underdogs and are 2/3, with one being an up 10 team that lost the game. Yesterday was sweet spot in CBB. Had to pick either UNC+1.5 or Duke -1.5 first half. Picked UNC. Then +EV offer on Duke/Creighton/Kentucky parlay became available. So was hoping for Duke to be up 1 at halftime and win game. They did. And Creighton and Kentucky also squeaked out wins. Not big money but made around $200 total.
Bad beat on Knicks. Had them +2.5/over. Over hit early. They are up 3 with a second to go. They lose by a lot in OT….
Online Sports betting went legal in NY in 2022. I signed up for Caesar’s sports book early and got the super lucrative $3300 promo. I knew it wouldn’t last and it didn’t. I sacrificed some amount of value from not knowing exactly what to do but it’s better than waiting when they dropped their promo to something like $1000. Got lucrative promos from PointsBet and DraftKings. Smaller promos from BetRivers, MGM, ResortsWorldBet and Wynn.
I signed up for a service that provides real time odds. I signed up Feb 1 and it just hit 1 year. For my first year using that data, my all time low was $500 down (the first week) and all time high was a little over $5000 profit. Total after 1 year was up $1800 (just based on that service. I keep track of sign up bonuses and one time promos separately). NBA was super super profitable. NHL was unbelievably unprofitable. Baseball started out profitable and then way down and ended the season a negligible amount down. At one point I went from $5k up to Down $4.5k in about a month. Had a real bad streak in the late spring.
I did manage to parlay the bets into Caesar’s diamond plus. That has real benefits. Free bets each month, no resort fees (I stayed at Caesar’s properties about 8 nights in 2022 after getting diamond and saved about $45 each night). I’ve had 4 laurel lounge visits with a guest. Plus I do put value into diamond lines. I hate waiting in line. As someone who was a super low player that never had higher than the base card it’s been nice.
I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.
Quote: TinManMy 2022 sports betting
I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.
Are you saying you are limited on ANY NBA bet to $20 or just their promos/specials/odds boosts/etc…?
I am limited on the offers, but to my knowledge, not on any regular bets.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: TinManMy 2022 sports betting
I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.
Are you saying you are limited on ANY NBA bet to $20 or just their promos/specials/odds boosts/etc…?
I am limited on the offers, but to my knowledge, not on any regular bets.
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My default MGM bet is $50 (it auto populates at $50). I try to bet $50 on every bet I make. 99/100 times I’ll get a message saying $50 is over my limit and offering something like $18.34 or $22.89. Not just promos. Regular sides and totals and player props. Everyone once in awhile I can get down $50 but it’s rare. Typically it’s the Same around $20 limit for other sports too (except soccer where it’s usually lower)
Quote: TinManQuote: SOOPOOQuote: TinManMy 2022 sports betting
I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.
Are you saying you are limited on ANY NBA bet to $20 or just their promos/specials/odds boosts/etc…?
I am limited on the offers, but to my knowledge, not on any regular bets.
link to original post
My default MGM bet is $50 (it auto populates at $50). I try to bet $50 on every bet I make. 99/100 times I’ll get a message saying $50 is over my limit and offering something like $18.34 or $22.89. Not just promos. Regular sides and totals and player props. Everyone once in awhile I can get down $50 but it’s rare. Typically it’s the Same around $20 limit for other sports too (except soccer where it’s usually lower)
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Interesting. I’m pretty sure that only happens to me on their ‘Lions Boost’ offers. Which hit yesterday (Warriors win by 10 or less).
Lots of Super Bowl offers. All slightly +EV. I can use Hurts to run for 1st TD. Then Pacheco catches one of Mahomes 3 TD passes. While Hurts only throws one TD. In a high scoring Chiefs win. After a touchback on the opening kickoff. Chiefs 32, Eagles 24. (I have2,4 in a free square game…). Oh, and Gronk can make that FG!
Am I asking for too much?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: TinManQuote: SOOPOOQuote: TinManMy 2022 sports betting
I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.
Are you saying you are limited on ANY NBA bet to $20 or just their promos/specials/odds boosts/etc…?
I am limited on the offers, but to my knowledge, not on any regular bets.
link to original post
My default MGM bet is $50 (it auto populates at $50). I try to bet $50 on every bet I make. 99/100 times I’ll get a message saying $50 is over my limit and offering something like $18.34 or $22.89. Not just promos. Regular sides and totals and player props. Everyone once in awhile I can get down $50 but it’s rare. Typically it’s the Same around $20 limit for other sports too (except soccer where it’s usually lower)
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Interesting. I’m pretty sure that only happens to me on their ‘Lions Boost’ offers. Which hit yesterday (Warriors win by 10 or less).
Lots of Super Bowl offers. All slightly +EV. I can use Hurts to run for 1st TD. Then Pacheco catches one of Mahomes 3 TD passes. While Hurts only throws one TD. In a high scoring Chiefs win. After a touchback on the opening kickoff. Chiefs 32, Eagles 24. (I have2,4 in a free square game…). Oh, and Gronk can make that FG!
Am I asking for too much?
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Just found this post! Hurts ran for 1st TD! Pacheco TD as well. Mahomes threw for 3 TDs. Hurts threw for one TD. There was a touchback on the opening kickoff. And Chiefs won in a high scoring game. Hit EVERY one!
Tonight I think FD has a pretty positive EV offer. Embiid and Mitchell to combine for 60 points is +175. If you would have made me guess I’d have put fair odds at -120! Embiid has averaged over 33 points a game, with some low scores in games he hasn’t been needed in the 4th quarter. This is an even matchup so unlikely a blowout either way. Mitchell has averaged over 27 this season, but around 35 three games. Before that he was injured and his minutes were just being ramped up. I’m sure in games he’s played fully he’s averaging over 30.
They had similar offer yesterday. Antetokuonpo over 24.5, Booker over 19.5. Holiday over 14.5. All made it easily. I think it was +150.
Prediction…. Embiid 35. Mitchell 30.
Quote: SOOPOOI hope others jumped in. 62 points.
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very nice call - definitely per your analysis it looks like you had a very big edge
I wonder why that happened______?__________was it a mistake__________?_______________or do the books sometimes deliberately post a very few good bets knowing that the vast majority will still be net losers_______?
who knows____?______not me
.
Quote: lilredroosterQuote: SOOPOOI hope others jumped in. 62 points.
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very nice call - definitely per your analysis it looks like you had a very big edge
I wonder why that happened______?__________was it a mistake__________?_______________or do the books sometimes deliberately post a very few good bets knowing that the vast majority will still be net losers_______?
who knows____?______not me
.
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Sometimes, especially DraftKings, they offer clear +EV bets. They’ve had a few recently where a pick’em game…. they offer + 150 on either side. The recent Lebron James offers were also clearly +EV.
Last night I lost on one as I had Antetokuonpo to score at least 25….. He got injured early. Shit happens!
I win the most if they win by exactly 5. All other results I win a small amount.
Today Alabama/Arizona/Providence parlay at + odds. Should be slight - odds. I hedged a small bit on Villanova +3.5 over Providence. So rooting for pProvidence 70, Villanova 69.
