ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 1st, 2022 at 1:31:53 PM permalink
Link to other bets, just in case it ends up being on the previous page

Again, I won't say the $ amounts, but below are some more bets:

Note 1: All prices are in decimal odds (as I am just cutting and pasting from the 'book).
Note 2: The figures' in brackets are the rough % of my "total betting funds" that I wagered on that betting option.
Note 3: I don't think I mentioned this last time, but these bets (like the bets in the link at the top) are what I would call "reverse correlated plays " (in other words, they are plays were the estimated chance for them to win is likely less than 25% per option that I have bet on).


William & Mary -17.5 / Under 44.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Stony Brook +17.5 / Over 44.5 @ 5.00 (0.51%)

Fresno State -23.5 / Under 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Connecticut +23.5 / Over 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)

Arkansas +17.5 / Over 61.5 @ 4.20 (0.38%)
Alabama -17.5 / Under 61.5 @ 4.40 (0.37%)

Penn State -25.5 / Under 50.5 @ 5.50 (0.55%)
Northwestern +25.5 / Over 50.5 @ 6.00 (0.5%)

Indiana State +23.5 / Over 49.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Northern Iowa -22.5 / Under 48.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)

Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 47.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 47.5 @ 5.50 (0.52%)

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I will post the results later, when all games are finished

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Update (I just got on the Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh, with all 'books):

Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 46.5 @ 6.00
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Over 46.5 @ 3.50

Georgia Tech +21.5 / Under 46.5 3.60
Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5 @ 5.50

. 60% of my funds were bets on these
. Make ~4% ROI, if either "Pittsburgh -21.5 / Over 46.5" or "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Under 46.5" hit.
. Make ~14% ROI, if "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5" hits.
. Make ~24% ROI, if "Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 46.5" hits.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 1, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 1st, 2022 at 1:58:26 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Does your sportsbook allow “call bets” ?
link to original post


No, but it would have been nice if they did.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 1st, 2022 at 7:52:47 PM permalink
Here are the "alternative line/spread" bets that I had this week (see below):

Note: I had them all as trebles

Saints -3 @ +240
Bills +3.5 @ -275
Commanders -3 @ +225
Giants -7 @ +210
Panthers -7 @ +240

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Possible Outcomes:

Note: FYI. the figures below do not take into account the chance of a leg pushing (in other words it assumes the leg can only either win or lose).

Bet: $700 in total (on all the 10 different trebles)
.
If 0 to 2 out of 5 legs win, then I will lose $700
If 3/5 legs win, I will collect at least $1,335*** (profit $635+)
If 4/5 legs win, I will collect at least $5.340*** (profit $4,640+)
If all 5^^^ legs win, I will collect at least $13,350*** (profit $12,650+)

***: I will collect between $1,335 and $1,355 for each winning treble, but I used the lowest figure of $1,335 for all potential profit calcs above (to simplify the "working out" in this post).
^^^: I think I have an edge with these bets, but if we assume a 0% edge on these bets, then there is about a 1/159 chance for all 5 legs to win.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 1st, 2022 at 9:01:50 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Link to other bets, just in case it ends up being on the previous page
(snip)
William & Mary -17.5 / Under 44.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Stony Brook +17.5 / Over 44.5 @ 5.00 (0.51%)

Fresno State -23.5 / Under 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Connecticut +23.5 / Over 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)

Arkansas +17.5 / Over 61.5 @ 4.20 (0.38%)
Alabama -17.5 / Under 61.5 @ 4.40 (0.37%)

Penn State -25.5 / Under 50.5 @ 5.50 (0.55%)
Northwestern +25.5 / Over 50.5 @ 6.00 (0.5%)

Indiana State +23.5 / Over 49.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Northern Iowa -22.5 / Under 48.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)

Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 47.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 47.5 @ 5.50 (0.52%)

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I will post the results later, when all games are finished

----
Update (I just got on the Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh, with all 'books):

Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 46.5 @ 6.00
Pittsburgh -21.5 / Over 46.5 @ 3.50

Georgia Tech +21.5 / Under 46.5 3.60
Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5 @ 5.50

. 60% of my funds were bets on these
. Make ~4% ROI, if either "Pittsburgh -21.5 / Over 46.5" or "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Under 46.5" hit.
. Make ~14% ROI, if "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5" hits.
. Make ~24% ROI, if "Pittsburgh -21.5 / Under 46.5" hits.
link to original post


Below are my results for this week, in NCAAF.

Note: I haven't checked the results to make sure the bets have been graded correctly, yet.

"Small bets": I lost about 7.21% of my "previous betting funds".
"Big bet game" / the "Georgia Tech +21.5 / Over 46.5" one: I gained about 8.39%^^^ of my "previous betting funds".

^^^: ~14% "ROI for that game " x 60% "of my betting funds" = ~8.39%

Total growth (compared to "previous betting funds"): +1.18% (8.39% - 7.21%)
.
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Extra:

For the Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh game, I was very lucky### that the total went over 46.5 (score was 26-21) otherwise I would have lost overall for the college footballs parlays, this week.

###: The final TD was scored in the last 16 seconds, according to ESPN.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 2nd, 2022 at 3:29:41 AM permalink
I did well yesterday. I did one 7 team parlay, all moderate faves. For each leg the profit gets boosted. Only close game was South Alabama squeaking out win at the buzzer. Paid around 10-1. Luckily Fresno State was too much of a favorite to be included…..
I have another 10-1 soccer parlay, all wins so far, that I need Leeds to win today!
And a bunch of parlays that start with the Vikings winning this morning. I’m actually unhappy that Mr. Interception, Jameis Winston, is out!
Silly parlay of the day…. Leclerc top 3. Hamilton top 6. Hurts over 224.5 yds passing…..
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 2nd, 2022 at 1:48:19 PM permalink
Just had 4k on the Chiefs @ +110 ML.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 2nd, 2022 at 6:15:10 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Just had 4k on the Chiefs @ +110 ML.
link to original post


Just got paid, since the book I am using grades the ML bet as a winner, if the team you back is up by 17 (or more) points.

Note 1; The current live ML odds with that book is, -450 KC / +330 TB. After the TB TD, it is now -400 KC / +300 TB
Note 2: I have mentioned this before, but using the historical data for the 2014-2021 seasons, a team has about 1/55*** chance of coming back and winning , after being down 17+ points..

***: Eyeballing it, that chance figure is probably a bit higher for a Team with Brady as QB.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 3rd, 2022 at 7:59:39 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I did well yesterday. I did one 7 team parlay, all moderate faves. For each leg the profit gets boosted. Only close game was South Alabama squeaking out win at the buzzer. Paid around 10-1. Luckily Fresno State was too much of a favorite to be included…..
I have another 10-1 soccer parlay, all wins so far, that I need Leeds to win today!
And a bunch of parlays that start with the Vikings winning this morning. I’m actually unhappy that Mr. Interception, Jameis Winston, is out!
Silly parlay of the day…. Leclerc top 3. Hamilton top 6. Hurts over 224.5 yds passing…..
link to original post



So I pushed the wrong button…. Good! Apparently one of my soccer parlays with Leeds was TIE NO BET! So I won, just less than if they won.
Vikings came through (barely). My biggest bet was Chiefs ML, with hedge on Bucs +3. Had Bucs scored last meaningless TD would have neutralized the hedge.

I’m at new ATH. Trusting the process. Did DK withdrawal today. Money was in my account minutes after I put in the request.

Go Leicester today!
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 3rd, 2022 at 4:31:59 PM permalink
For the Rams @ 49ers game, I had 1k on the Rams @ -9.5 / odds +400 (I think there is about a 22% to 23% chance of that occurring).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 3rd, 2022 at 8:48:22 PM permalink
See bet in my previous post, above:

"Good" news, even though the bet lost, I managed to get back almost $100^^^ by "cashing out".

^^^: It was early in the 4th Quarter (the score was 9-17) when I requested it. Also, I wasn't expecting to get anything back because they were not posting any "cash out" value at the time of my request (I just applied for the minimum "Auto Cash Out" of $2).

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Extra:
Even though I am still "behind this year" with my cash outs, I would have estimated that the value of my "1k on the Rams @ -9.5 / odds +400" would have been worth $15*** at most, at the time of "cash out".

***: That was the figure I got using an online "Win Probability Calculator", IMO at the time it was probably worth less than $2 (which is why, I was happy to ask for the minimum).

Conclusion:
Even if I use the maximum figure of $15 as the value of the ticket, I am still about $85 better off on average by "cashing out" than "letting the bet ride/stand" ($100 received less $15 "maximum value of the ticket at the time of cash out" = $85).

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