SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 9326
September 28th, 2022 at 6:04:21 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Heard a neat "pro tip" on IIRC "Against All Odds" yesterday.

If the line settles at 2.5, take the dog. If it settles at 3.5 take the chalk.

Thinking is if the favorite is not good enough to justify the full key number spread then they are a weak favorite.

Thoughts?
link to original post



It would be quite easy (for someone!) to check this out over past 20 years. Iíd surmise answer is somewhere between 48 and 52%. I had heard of this years ago by the way.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 5018
September 28th, 2022 at 8:03:45 AM permalink
_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout - the fave over hundreds of trials will lose much, much less than the takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball for years (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3858
September 28th, 2022 at 8:06:30 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
link to original post



Iíd love to see data on this but Iíd be surprised if there was an edge. Sports betting in the US is not parimutuel. And I believe Vegas does not adjust the money lines all the way to balance their books. Instead, I believe they are willing to take some exposure on a loss if the underdog hits to avoid making the favorite +EV.

I could be wrong though.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 5018
September 28th, 2022 at 8:10:14 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
link to original post



Iíd love to see data on this but Iíd be surprised if there was an edge. Sports betting in the US is not parimutuel. And I believe Vegas does not adjust the money lines all the way to balance their books. Instead, I believe they are willing to take some exposure on a loss if the underdog hits to avoid making the favorite +EV.

I could be wrong though.
link to original post




okay - but think about this - other than myself - I've never seen anyone on this site make a pick on a big fave such as -250

maybe I missed some - I dunno - but anyway, it's very, very few - I remember when Steeldco was posting baseball picks every single day for many years - I can't ever recall him posting a pick on big fave such as -250

to me - that suggests - that for the books to be solvent - they would have to give what they see as a better deal on the big fave and a worse deal on the shots

Edit - okay, I just looked over some of Steeldco's picks - and I was wrong about that - he did make a few - very few picks on big faves


.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 9326
September 28th, 2022 at 8:20:39 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
link to original post



Iíd love to see data on this but Iíd be surprised if there was an edge. Sports betting in the US is not parimutuel. And I believe Vegas does not adjust the money lines all the way to balance their books. Instead, I believe they are willing to take some exposure on a loss if the underdog hits to avoid making the favorite +EV.

I could be wrong though.
link to original post




okay - but think about this - other than myself - I've never seen anyone on this site make a pick on a big fave such as -250

maybe I missed some - I dunno - but anyway, it's very, very few - I remember when Steeldco was posting baseball picks every single day for many years - I can't ever recall him posting a pick on big fave such as -250

to me - that suggests - that for the books to be solvent - they would have to give what they see as a better deal on the big fave than they do on the shots


.
link to original post



I donít post them because I donít post everything I bet, but, small sample size, Iíve just LOST two $100 bets on around -275 faves in baseball. (I needed to make those bets to get a certain bonus). I think overall Iíve done very poorly on my big fave baseball bets. The worst team wins 1/3. The best team loses 1/3. Itís not like Georgia versus Samford in footballÖ

Yesterday I tried to bet $1000 to win $.40 on Brazil over Tunisia. At the time with half hour remaining Brazil was ahead 4-1, and Tunisia was playing with 10 players due to a red card. I felt that there was WAY LESS than a 1/2500 chance of Tunisia scoring 3 goals in that half hour down a man. I got interrupted by an important call and never got the bet in. Brazil won 5-1. (Irrelevant). I know itís silly, but I think I enjoy a +EV opportunity even if itís for $0.40.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 5018
September 28th, 2022 at 8:28:32 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

_____________


I have a theory on moneyline betting which I can't prove but I believe is true

and my only posted moneyline pick here was a disaster - but hopefully that won't be held against me

I believe that GENERALLY when there is a big fave - such as -250 the player may often have a small edge on a bet on the fave - but the pick should be selected carefully - not just every one - because if every single one was played the edge would be too small to be worthwhile

the reason:

gamblers being gamblers - so many love big payouts - and dislike small payouts

so I believe there exists a favorite/longshot bias - this has been proved in horse racing - the longest shot in the field over hundreds of trials will lose way, way more than the track takeout

I've been paper betting big faves in baseball (I only bet real money on horses and a very few football bets) - and I've had about a 7% edge carefully selecting big faves on the moneyline

I hate to make a claim when I haven't posted the picks - but if someone wants to not believe it - it's okay - I don't care


.
link to original post



Iíd love to see data on this but Iíd be surprised if there was an edge. Sports betting in the US is not parimutuel. And I believe Vegas does not adjust the money lines all the way to balance their books. Instead, I believe they are willing to take some exposure on a loss if the underdog hits to avoid making the favorite +EV.

I could be wrong though.
link to original post




okay - but think about this - other than myself - I've never seen anyone on this site make a pick on a big fave such as -250

maybe I missed some - I dunno - but anyway, it's very, very few - I remember when Steeldco was posting baseball picks every single day for many years - I can't ever recall him posting a pick on big fave such as -250

to me - that suggests - that for the books to be solvent - they would have to give what they see as a better deal on the big fave than they do on the shots


.
link to original post



I donít post them because I donít post everything I bet, but, small sample size, Iíve just LOST two $100 bets on around -275 faves in baseball. (I needed to make those bets to get a certain bonus). I think overall Iíve done very poorly on my big fave baseball bets. The worst team wins 1/3.
link to original post




I don't know how you chose your bets - but this is how I choose mine - there have to be 2 conditions before I make a pick


1. there has to be a drastic difference in the home/ away records such as the home fave is 40-23 at home and the away dog is 24 - 39 on the road

2. the fave's pitcher has to be way, way better than the dog's pitcher - and the dog's starting pitcher has to be a real dog - if he's mediocre - no bet


one of the great stats you can get on pitchers other than ERA is WHIP - walks and hits per inning pitched - and I require for there to be a large difference for a play


it has worked for me - not trying to make any extravagant claims - the edge if it truly exists is not very big - and no guarantees of course






please note that I edited my statement about Steeldco which didn't show up in your quoting me - it shows now in my OP


.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 28, 2022
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 9326
Thanks for this post from:
rawtuff
September 28th, 2022 at 11:06:10 AM permalink
I LOVE DraftKings. They had a bet offer yesterday on Aaron Judge getting a hit during the game. He played, made one out and walked 4 times! They REFUNDED all losing bets stating Ďsince he had so few pitches to swing atíÖ. When I made the bet, I was well aware he might walk a lot, but still felt at even money it was a good bet. They are offering same bet today. Thatís $20 I hope to win. A different site letís me bet on him getting at least one walk at even money. Thatís $10 I hope to win. I havenít seen a boost for him to hit a homer. But there probably will be one.

DraftKings also has this weekly Ďfree prizeí. Basically itís been 3 weeks. Won points worth $4, $2, and $3. I just love when someone gives me free money. Today cash in points for $10 (Caesarís) and $5 free bet (BetRivers). I think by tomorrow Iíll get $10 cash bonus from BetMGM. It all adds up.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 9326
September 28th, 2022 at 12:20:37 PM permalink
Not sure if Iíd be able to dig through my 5 betting sitesí Tís and Cís, but what happens to my gaggle of bets on Bucs/Chiefs if the game is moved to a different venue? What if the date it is played is changed?
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 82
  • Posts: 9445
September 28th, 2022 at 12:59:27 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Not sure if Iíd be able to dig through my 5 betting sitesí Tís and Cís, but what happens to my gaggle of bets on Bucs/Chiefs if the game is moved to a different venue? What if the date it is played is changed?
link to original post



Nevada books generally cancel bets if date is changed.
Order from chaos
Vegasrider
Vegasrider 
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
  • Threads: 83
  • Posts: 904
September 28th, 2022 at 1:00:35 PM permalink
Why would you risk betting $1000 to win $10! Most idiotic bet you can make. Why not wager $10 on a bet that has a realistic shot of winning that pays the opposite way?

Iíve been making a nice profit betting NASCAR. I convinced my coworker to place a bet on Michael McDowell last week at 500:1 before they ran the qualifying for the pole. He started 5th out of 36. 2/3 into the race he was leading and then the officials red flagged the race due to rain and lightning . If the weather remained uncooperative, they could have called the race official. But after a couple of hours they continued and eventually Tyler Reddick won at 15:1 odds which I had in addition to him winning his group at plus 310.

Once again, I made money but my coworker has fall in love with bettin on NASCAR because of the huge odds. There are so many variables in a race, especially towards the end where a long shot can come in. Leaders can crash, leaders can receive pit penalty, weather can end the race, etc.

  • Jump to: