SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 25th, 2022 at 4:54:39 PM permalink
More tales of woe! I had boosted 3 leg soccer parlay, all teams have to win, a tie is a loss….. First two won yesterday…. need Latvia to beat ANDORRA! I think Andorra has like 70 people living there….. Andorra scores goal to tie with two minutes to go….

Had 13-1 on Thomas being top point scorer at the Predidents Cup. It was between him and Jordan Spieth. Both had 4 wins before last match today. Around halfway through Thomas was up two holes in his match, Spieth down two holes. You don’t have to look it up to know what happened.

On the bright side I got that $100 free bet from BetRivers. Had Bears today to win, Dodgers today to win. Chiefs over Bucs next week! So I’m alive at $400 if the Chiefs win. I’ll probably hedge a little…..
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 26th, 2022 at 9:07:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

More tales of woe! I had boosted 3 leg soccer parlay, all teams have to win, a tie is a loss….. First two won yesterday…. need Latvia to beat ANDORRA! I think Andorra has like 70 people living there….. Andorra scores goal to tie with two minutes to go….

Had 13-1 on Thomas being top point scorer at the Predidents Cup. It was between him and Jordan Spieth. Both had 4 wins before last match today. Around halfway through Thomas was up two holes in his match, Spieth down two holes. You don’t have to look it up to know what happened.

On the bright side I got that $100 free bet from BetRivers. Had Bears today to win, Dodgers today to win. Chiefs over Bucs next week! So I’m alive at $400 if the Chiefs win. I’ll probably hedge a little…..
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Hedging done. I 'needed' to make a $100 bet on another website to gain a bonus, so I took the Bucs +3. Also 'needed' to make a $10 bet on a third one, and took Bucs money line. And a 3rd bet for $20 on Bucs money line.

Sooooo. Bucs win outright.... around +$140.
Tie- around +$260
Chiefs win by 1 or 2 around +$460
Chiefs win by 3 around +$370
Chiefs win by over 3 around +$270

So +Ev near $220? Around what I lost yesterday on my other +EV bets.....
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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September 26th, 2022 at 9:19:08 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I thought Denver was "good value", so I had the ML @ +105, to win 4200.
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How many of us fell asleep during the SF vs DEN game? I did.
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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ksdjdj
September 26th, 2022 at 9:32:48 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

I thought Denver was "good value", so I had the ML @ +105, to win 4200.
link to original post



How many of us fell asleep during the SF vs DEN game? I did.
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Two below average teams with below average QBs playing a very below average game. Kittle post injury doesn't look like a top level TE. Garoppolo is not a top 20 QB. Wilson is not a top 15 QB. I'll bet Deebo is unhappy he is still there......


NFC East is 7-3!
AFC West is 5-7!

All the talk pre season was how dominant the AFC West was going to be, and how weak the NFC East was going to be...
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 26th, 2022 at 2:48:11 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

I thought Denver was "good value", so I had the ML @ +105, to win 4200.
link to original post



How many of us fell asleep during the SF vs DEN game? I did.
link to original post


I would have stopped watching the game, if not for the above bet.

Also, I thought during the game that the defense and/or special teams should come out and play all sides of the ball.

Even though It didn't pan out, watching the game gave me an idea to see if I could bet on something like "Over on Punts^^^ x Under on Total" .

^^^: I didn't count it, but maybe there were more punts than points scored (?)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 26, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 26th, 2022 at 4:50:50 PM permalink
I don't have a personal opinion on tonight's Cowboys @ Giants game, but I did have 1200 @ +300^^^ on the Cowboys (-7 pts)

^^^: Using the odds with Pinnacle and other sites as a guide, I would estimate the EV is somewhere between 10% and 20% (I used 10% for betting purposes).

Quote: SOOPOO

(snip)
But…. I was able to parlay the underdog (Kent State) +44.5 and Over 61.5 and got a whopping +575!!! It may not go over but it’s close now. That must have been +EV.
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Quote: ksdjdj

I would have probably had that bet too, if I could get on.

Assuming 44.5 and 61.5 was "the 50/50 line", then:

fav ' x under = ~11.91%
fav ' x over = ~ 32.85%
'dog x under = ~ 38.09%
'dog x over = ~ 17.15%

'dog x over = ~17.15% x $6.75 (+575) = ~115.74% *** RTP = +15.74% EV
(snip)
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Update / Ammendment:

I still think that was a good bet, but the way I estimate the chances is a bit "faulty*** "

***: My way gets a "50/50" estimate for the O/U, but at the cost of "overstating the 'dogs overall chances" (in the above example it shows about 55% for the 'dog, overall).

Anyway, the updated figure would be roughly 4% to 5% EV for the " ' dog x over", for the above lines and totals (so still a good bet, IMO).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 27th, 2022 at 2:54:06 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I don't have a personal opinion on tonight's Cowboys @ Giants game, but I did have 1200 @ +300^^^ on the Cowboys (-7 pts)

^^^: Using the odds with Pinnacle and other sites as a guide, I would estimate the EV is somewhere between 10% and 20% (I used 10% for betting purposes).
(snip)
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Cowboys won by 7 (so at least I didn't lose).

Here is a run-down of the odds and spreads that I was looking at for the game:
Pinnacle: Giants +7.5 @ -317

"Site that I bet with": Cowboys -7.5 @ +320, Cowboys -7 @ +300, and Cowboys -6.5 @ +260*** (or +250***).

***: Can't remember if it was +260 or +250, but even if I use +260, I think the "... -7 @ +300" was the bet with the better value overall (even though the -6.5 offer obviously would have won, on this occasion).
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
September 27th, 2022 at 3:20:17 PM permalink
I bet the away team every game, which gives me a 1.3% edge on the sportsbook.
It’s all about making that GTA
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 27th, 2022 at 3:35:52 PM permalink
I just had a $1500 bet on the Dolphins (-7) @ +450***

Comparison odds (Pinnacle) :Dolphins (-7.5) @ +350 and Bengals (+7.5) @ -441

Odds on offer (where I bet): Dolphins (-6.5) @ +375 , Dolphins (-7) @ +450*** , and Dolphins (-7.5) @ +475

***: Using the Pinnacle odds as a guide, and adjusting it to "Dolphins (-7)", the estimated EV is probably somewhere around 20% to 25%.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 28th, 2022 at 5:22:50 AM permalink
Heard a neat "pro tip" on IIRC "Against All Odds" yesterday.

If the line settles at 2.5, take the dog. If it settles at 3.5 take the chalk.

Thinking is if the favorite is not good enough to justify the full key number spread then they are a weak favorite.

Thoughts?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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