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ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 4th, 2022 at 2:54:21 PM permalink
49ers' Game:
If Jimmy G was out at the start of the game, I have his replacement @ 3.5 to 4 pts worse (compared to whatever you think was the "fair spread" before the game).

Great 11 play / 76 yard TD drive by Purdy to finish off the half (I am not watching it, but looking at the scores on the ESPN site).

Thinking about taking the "live under" on the 49ers', and either get:
25.5 @ +140 or
26.5 @ +110

Update: Too late the 2nd half has started after writing this post.

----
Chiefs' Game::
Even though 4th and 1 at the 4 yard line the majority of the time is the correct play, I would personally take whatever pts I could get against the Chiefs (especially near the end of the 1st half, and also because it would have made it a 7 pt margin, if the FG was successful).

Just before kickoff, I was talking to someone I trust to be a better judge/handicapper than me, and he said to take the Bengals' +2.5 @ 1.92, so I had a $4k bet on them (fingers' crossed***).

*** (update, ~3pm): Still plenty of game to go, but not looking as confident now after looking at were the Chiefs have the ball,
ksdjdj
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December 4th, 2022 at 4:47:22 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip) ...someone I trust to be a better judge/handicapper than me,... (snip)
link to original post


Same person told me I should switch### positions and look at the Cowboys' , so I had $2000 on them -10.5 @ $2.05*** .

***: I found out why I can get such good odds - and it is because "for the Marquee games, this 'book is offering no juice^^^ for the entire season, ATS".

^^^: At the time of my bet they had it, $1.95 - Colts / $2.05 -Cowboys', ATS (so, almost " no juice").
ksdjdj
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December 5th, 2022 at 12:34:57 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)***: I found out why I can get such good odds - and it is because "for the Marquee games, this 'book is offering no juice^^^ for the entire season, ATS". (snip)
link to original post


Loaded up on the Saints' game, because I like the Saints' (a little bit) and because it is another "Marquee game".

Even though I "tied up $30k in funds", I can either win $1,950 or lose $1,500 (effectively I am on the Bucs' -3.5 @ $2.30*** )
***: ATS, the best odds I could get was $1.90 on the Saints' and $2.13 on the Bucs' (the Bucs' were with the special "Marquee odds").

I also had $1.8k on the Saints'-6.5 @ $5.5 ("alt spread") and below is the summary of what I can win / lose for this game:

Bucs' win by 4 (or more): +$150 ,
Saints win by between 6 to -3: -$3.3k
Saints win by 7 (or more): +$6.6k

----
Comments:
I am having a "positive run" overall, but all my bets on "alt spreads" have lost this week.

----
Update (~1345, Pac time);
The special "Marquee odds" have changed and are now $2 / $2 (at the +3.5 /-3.5 spread).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 5, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 5th, 2022 at 12:42:28 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Thinking about taking the "live under" on the 49ers', and either get:
25.5 @ +140 or
26.5 @ +110

Update: Too late the 2nd half has started after writing this post.
(snip)
link to original post


Glad I didn't drive to the "betting shop", as I probably would have lost up to $1k since that is usually the max I bet on "live betting" (when I am not "hedging my bets").
SOOPOO
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December 5th, 2022 at 5:16:08 PM permalink
Hit Brazil ML
Over 3.5 goals total
South Korea to score
Over 8.5 corners.

Nice parlay, with boosted odds of course!

Tonight I have TB, either ML, -3, or -3.5.
ksdjdj
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December 7th, 2022 at 12:22:49 AM permalink
Feeling very tired this week so I don't plan on doing any "graded bets" atm, but I did have the following below (since one is a bonus and the other is "a bad line compared to the public line", IMO):
$250 (bonus bet) on the Texans +3.5 @ +500
Same game double / parlay: "Cowboys*** -14.5 x Under 46.5" @ +270

***: I normally try to fade a team after a "big win ATS", but I am probably not doing any work this week, so instead I am just using the public odds from Pinnacle and Vegas Insider as a guide (for any potential bets).

-----
"Alternate Spreads":
I know all of my bets on these have lost recently, but I am interested in the the following teams, and "alt spreads/totals" this week:
Bucs: -2.5 @ +210, -3.5 @ +310, Under 27.5 @ +345 and Under 26.5 @ +410

Cards: -6.5 @ +280

Vikings^^^: -7.5 @ +375 or -8.5 @ +425

^^^: After "talking smack" about the Vikings in one of my earlier posts, "wanting to bet on the Vikings' " may seem strange, but using Pinnacle as a guide there is currently a 14%+ estimated EV at the above odds.

Also, I probably won't bet on them, but here are are some more interesting "alt spreads" below:

Bengals are -263 ML and are also -263 @ +1.5
Eagles are -300 ML and are also -300 @ +1.5
SOOPOO
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December 7th, 2022 at 4:06:45 AM permalink
I watched paint dry, I mean the Morocco/ Spain soccer game. Morocco played great defense for 120 minutes. Spain tried 100 passes before attempting a risky one.
But I made $$. Had draw (after 90 minutes) at 2.5-1. Then after 95 ish minutes added ‘less than .5 goals for Spain’ only needing to lay 2-1. Then after 105 minutes got ‘’game ends 0-0” and only had to lay 2-1.
Morocco had one good scoring chance, Spain zero.

I continue to do well on my college bball parlays. Hit 6 teamer
last night but taking extra points to get even shorter odds. Then each leg gets an additional ‘boost’. Only ended up getting 7-1 but cruised through.

Looks like I will make ‘gold’ on DraftKings. I hope somehow that makes me a ‘VIP’ again. The VIP offers were highly +EV.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 7th, 2022 at 10:07:30 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(lots of snips for relevance)
-----
"Alternate Spreads":

Vikings^^^: -7.5 @ +375 or -8.5 @ +425

link to original post


Here are the lines / totals I have taken so far:

Vikings' : -7.5, and -8.5 @ the above odds (half of my total bet on this game, at both of these spreads).

Raiders' Game: Raiders -6.5 @ +100, Raiders' -13.5 @ +230, and over 57.5 @ +550 (5/12, 1/4, and 1/3 of my total bet on this game, respectively).
DRich
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December 8th, 2022 at 4:35:53 AM permalink
Does anyone know what percentage of NHL goals in regulation are power play goals as opposed to full strength goals? I have a theory that I am working on but the stats I see include overtime.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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December 8th, 2022 at 5:50:57 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Does anyone know what percentage of NHL goals in regulation are power play goals as opposed to full strength goals? I have a theory that I am working on but the stats I see include overtime.
link to original post



I’ve watched hockey my entire life. I’ll guess 30% are power play, 68% full strength, 2% short handed. I can’t wait until you actually find out!
ksdjdj
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December 8th, 2022 at 12:19:36 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Does anyone know what percentage of NHL goals in regulation are power play goals as opposed to full strength goals? I have a theory that I am working on but the stats I see include overtime.
link to original post



I’ve watched hockey my entire life. I’ll guess 30% are power play, 68% full strength, 2% short handed. I can’t wait until you actually find out!
link to original post


The information in the links below, show P-P*** and short-handed^^^ figures:

***: Scroll to about 1/3 of the way down the page, in the first link.

^^^: "..Teams would expect to score a SH goal just once every 104.1 minutes spent playing short-handed..." (I know this wasn't asked, but I thought it was interesting, as well).

power-play-1

power-play-and-short-handed-2
SOOPOO
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December 9th, 2022 at 7:07:18 PM permalink
I just had my first real big in game advantage by watching game live. Sabres and Penguins were tied with a few seconds to go when Sabre genius Jeff Skinner cross checked a Penguin in the face. He was assessed a 5 minute penalty which would give the Penguins a 4-3 man advantage essentially until they scored or overtime ended. 5 minutes of 4-3 man advantage probably results in a goal 75% of the time.
I looked at the odds on Penguins winning and it was only -110!
I’m embarrassed to say how little I bet on the Penguins ($33) but I never thought the bet would actually go through. When it did I immediately tried again but no more bets were being accepted.
FinsRule
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December 10th, 2022 at 2:47:17 AM permalink
I’m guessing they have software that shuts betting down when enough people just hammer one side of the line.
SOOPOO
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December 10th, 2022 at 5:01:20 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I’m guessing they have software that shuts betting down when enough people just hammer one side of the line.
link to original post



That, and the odds do change once the penalty is ‘entered’ into their system. I have no idea how much of the change in odds is computer (algorithm?) generated versus human generated?

Second game last night. Down to the wire Bucks/Mavs. Giannis fouls out with 2 + minutes remaining so I immediately try for bet on Mavs. The score alone would have it around even money. But (luckily!) it didn’t let me get the bet in on the Mavs. It ‘thought’ for a few seconds and came back with ‘the odds have changed’.

I ‘think’ the foul out may be figured into the algorithm but an injury effect has to be human entered.

If anyone has access to an actual Sportsbook manager the answers would interest me…..
SOOPOO
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December 11th, 2022 at 11:36:38 AM permalink
I’m using the space below to detail all my football bets that are in the money at halftime.




That didn’t take long.
ksdjdj
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December 11th, 2022 at 12:56:20 PM permalink
Because of bad/slow lines, I had a live bet on the Cowboys' $1000 @ $3.00*** and then at pretty much the same time $1800 @ $1.68 on the Texans' (so lock in about $200 profit).

***: I didn't think I would be doing this for the Cowboys' game live (because "almost no one would expect them to have to do a 2-minute drill , as they are behind by 3 against this opponent..." )

----
Update:

I know the game isn't over, but too bad I probably won't win my "bonus bet of $250 on the Texans @ +3.5" (as they are down by 4 with 40 seconds left).
ksdjdj
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December 11th, 2022 at 1:31:54 PM permalink
Because it is a "Marquee Game ", I managed to have the following:

$5k on the Chargers` +3.5 @ +100***, and
$5k on the Dolphins' -3.5 @ +107^^^

***: This was @ a "slightly stale" line.

^^^: This was @ the special "Marquee odds, no vig" market.

-----
Extra Info:
If you are following my "graded bets thread", then I still want the Chargers' to win {or beat the spread}, because if the Dolphins' win { beat the spread}, it will only reduce my loss on the game by $350.


-----
Update (16:55, Pac Time):
Miami by exactly 3 would be a nice bonus, as I just had:
$2k on the Dolphins' -3 @ $1.93, and
another $2k on the Chargers' +3.5 @ $1.93

Also, I made some minor changes to the wording to my original post (see "strike-through and / or words in { } next to it ", above).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 11, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 11th, 2022 at 11:35:11 PM permalink
Pats' vs Cards' Game / Bets:

I invested / "tied up" $9,000 in this game at "alternatative odds" (see break-down below):

'Book A (5.5): Pats' + 5.5 @ $1.42 (~ -238) / I lose 320 if I beat this spread.
'Book B (5.5): Cards' -5.5 @ $3.70 (+270) / I win 1,400 ...

'Book A (6.5): Pats' + 6.5 @ $1.35 (~ -286) I lose 250 ...
'Book B (6.5): Cards' -6.5 @ $4.25 (+325) I win 1,500 ...

Effectively, I received the odds below (in terms of "max win to max loss"):

$320 on the Cards' -5.5 @ $5.375 (+437.5)
$250 on the Cards' -6.5 @ $7.0 (+600)

----
Comments:

I was going to have a "more normal" bet on the Pats', because I originally had them "x grade ", but supposedly the "smart money^^^ " is coming for the Cards' (?)

^^^: I think this is mainly because the Cards' are coming off a bye week, and also the Pats' are a "bit average", ATM (?)
ksdjdj
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December 13th, 2022 at 1:18:13 AM permalink
I think I got some "good value" for the Ravens' / Browns' game coming up this week (below is a list of possible results):

Win 2,450 if the Ravens' win by 6 (or more)
Win 1,300 if the Ravens' win by 4 or 5,
Win 3,500 if the Ravens' win by exactly 3
Lose 850 for all other results

Below were the relevant "alt odds":

Browns' +3.5 @ -250 / Ravens' -3.5 @ +275
Browns' +5.5 @ about -333 / Ravens' -5.5 @ +370 (was +375, but by the time I worked out all of my bets' for this game, it changed).
Ravens' -2.5 @ +190
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 13, 2022
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2022 at 12:12:21 PM permalink
So as usual I have a bunch of bets on France Morocco. In summary, I make money unless there are exactly 8 corner kicks. 30 minutes into the game there were ZERO. By halftime 4…
DRich
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December 14th, 2022 at 1:58:07 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So as usual I have a bunch of bets on France Morocco. In summary, I make money unless there are exactly 8 corner kicks. 30 minutes into the game there were ZERO. By halftime 4…
link to original post




Hopefully that was a good win for you. Only 5 corners.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2022 at 3:30:59 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

So as usual I have a bunch of bets on France Morocco. In summary, I make money unless there are exactly 8 corner kicks. 30 minutes into the game there were ZERO. By halftime 4…
link to original post




Hopefully that was a good win for you. Only 5 corners.
link to original post



It was. I had +150 on under 7.5 corners. Which in addition got me a free bet. Which I used to win (mid game) on Mbappe less than 1.5 SOG.
Would have won more as had 3 leg parlay which included over 8.5 corners. But 8 would have sunk them all.
Reminding you, these are not big bets. Total win was around $50. But I am having fun!

Just made Gold on DK. They gave me $100 as a reward. Just need 1x turnover which is irrelevant for me. Have been getting free crowns each week, worth betweenn$2 and $5 per week. That’s another $175 a year or so. I like free money.
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2022 at 8:00:38 PM permalink
So all these sites have free pick’em games. I just won the DraftKings recent soccer one! There were 8 questions. Basically picked both Argentina and France to shut out the weaker opposition. Argentina over 2.5 goals. France under 2.5 goals. So I was 8/8. Total prize pool was I think $5k. I won….. $12.34. A separate one I was 7/8. Won $0.34! Add em up and that’s 3 gallons of gas! 89 octane.

Today the ‘Lions boost’ on MGM was +290 on Knicks to win by 1-10 points. They were just mild underdogs (4 points) so it seemed like a very +EV bet. Knicks were up by 2 with like a minute left in overtime. The went on a scoring run hitting two clutch 3 pointers. Up 9 when they get the ball with 24 seconds to go….. Bulls let them run the clock out mercifully. There are teams that would have fouled them putting losing by 11 in play. But no bad beat this time. I used to be limited to $25 on the lions boost but now I can go to $50. That’s good.
DRich
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December 15th, 2022 at 4:47:33 AM permalink
Soopoo, just so you know, your writing about your sports bets coveys your enthusiasm. It is a welcome change around here to see people excited about something. The stakes don't matter, your dedication and excitement to your new found craft is infectious.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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December 15th, 2022 at 6:55:10 PM permalink
Half-time, 49ers' game:

Welp, looks' like I have to "ride or die" with my test bet on the Seahawks' , with the score being 14-3 to the 49ers' .

If the 49ers' win, I am kind of hoping the bet that I had before the game on the them' -9.5 @ +245, and -10.5 +285, will soften the blow.

----
In game Analysis:

It looks like I may have "over-compensated for players' out, and the 49ers' current starting QB" because I had the "gross spread" @ -6.5 to -7 for the 49ers', before making adjustments.

Also, too bad Mone left the game early, because according to ESPN, there is no "direct replacement" for him at NT.
SOOPOO
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December 15th, 2022 at 7:31:15 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Half-time, 49ers' game:

Welp, looks' like I have to "ride or die" with my test bet on the Seahawks' , with the score being 14-3 to the 49ers' .

If the 49ers' win, I am kind of hoping the bet that I had before the game on the them' -9.5 @ +245, and -10.5 +285, will soften the blow.

----
In game Analysis:

It looks like I may have "over-compensated for players' out, and the 49ers' current starting QB" because I had the "gross spread" @ -6.5 to -7 for the 49ers', before making adjustments.

Also, too bad Mone left the game early, because according to ESPN, there is no "direct replacement" for him at NT.
link to original post

. Football is very hard to analyze because in this game alone there was the (sort of) random event of a fumble returned for a TD which totally changed the game. Change that to the likely FG for Seattle and it’s 14-9 instead of 21-6. Seattle threw pass to 2 yard line negated by holding (it was a good call) but if ref misses that (not uncommon) add 4 more to Seattle. I think someone once summed it up …. A pointy football bounces funny.
ksdjdj
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December 15th, 2022 at 7:42:38 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Half-time, 49ers' game:

Welp, looks' like I have to "ride or die" with my test bet on the Seahawks' , with the score being 14-3 to the 49ers' .

If the 49ers' win, I am kind of hoping the bet that I had before the game on the them' -9.5 @ +245, and -10.5 +285, will soften the blow.

----
In game Analysis:

It looks like I may have "over-compensated for players' out, and the 49ers' current starting QB" because I had the "gross spread" @ -6.5 to -7 for the 49ers', before making adjustments.

Also, too bad Mone left the game early, because according to ESPN, there is no "direct replacement" for him at NT.
link to original post

. Football is very hard to analyze because in this game alone there was the (sort of) random event of a fumble returned for a TD which totally changed the game. Change that to the likely FG for Seattle and it’s 14-9 instead of 21-6. Seattle threw pass to 2 yard line negated by holding (it was a good call) but if ref misses that (not uncommon) add 4 more to Seattle. I think someone once summed it up …. A pointy football bounces funny.
link to original post


If the 49ers' can't get out of their own "end-zone" by 3rd down, then it would be one of the few times I would consider taking a safety.

Started writing this when it was 2nd and on the 1 yard line (?)

----
Extra info:
Feeling bad now that I didn't hedge the 49ers' -3.5 @ +130 before the game (though I think for my long-term ability to bet with that 'book, I did the right thing).

----
Update (written just after the Seahawks' TD):
Score is now 21-13, I either want Seattle to score a TD***, or 49ers' to score 3+ pts (otherwise I lost over $10k on this game, not including my graded bet).

***: If this happens, preferably they go for two and don't convert, if the 49ers' don't score on this drive.

----
Comment (after game is over):
Oh poo, about one yard short of a 49ers' TD.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 15, 2022
SOOPOO
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December 15th, 2022 at 8:55:01 PM permalink
I’m finally on the right side of one of these ‘we aren’t playing our good players tonight’. I got the Suns +1.5 and over 105.5 at odds that implied Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are playing for the opposition. They are being rested. Game not over but Suns are up 30 early in 2nd half.
I wrote earlier about Nets sitting their top 7 scorers for a game. The league has fined them $25k. I’m sure that will be a deterrent for the future….. NOT!!!!
ksdjdj
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December 15th, 2022 at 9:08:34 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

(snip)
I wrote earlier about Nets sitting their top 7 scorers for a game. The league has fined them $25k. I’m sure that will be a deterrent for the future….. NOT!!!!
link to original post


Going by the 2020 figures, that fine is "~1/100,000 x the value of the team" ("Mr Google" told me that they were worth up to $3.5 billion in 2022).
billryan
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December 15th, 2022 at 9:17:56 PM permalink
I'd suggest the fine for sitting out a healthy player is equal to his game salary. If the Nets were fined those seven salaries, and the money went to buy tickets for underprivileged kids and the like, it might stop the practice. If not, it helps some kids.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ksdjdj
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December 15th, 2022 at 11:36:53 PM permalink
Steelers v Panthers game (betting summary):

"TL;DR version": I can either win ~$3,100 if the game goes under 27.5, or lose $360 if the game goes over 28.5.

----
"Longer version":

I got the following bets down (at different 'books):
. $500 on the under 27.5 @ +390
. Nothing on the over 27.5
. $1,300 on the under 28.5 @ ~ +384^^^ (either win $5000 or lose $1300)
. $4,000 on the over 28.5 @ - 312.5
. $1,600 on the under 30.5 @ +260
. $4,000 on the over 30.5 @ ~ -227 (either win $1,760 / or lose $4,000)

^^^: For this option, 8/13 of my bet was on @ +400 and the rest was on @ +360.

List of potential results:
Total 27 (or less) = +$3,110
Total 28 (exactly) = +$660
Total 29 (or higher) = -$360
SOOPOO
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December 16th, 2022 at 8:22:12 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Steelers v Panthers game (betting summary):

"TL;DR version": I can either win ~$3,100 if the game goes under 27.5, or lose $360 if the game goes over 28.5.

----
"Longer version":

I got the following bets down (at different 'books):
. $500 on the under 27.5 @ +390
. Nothing on the over 27.5
. $1,300 on the under 28.5 @ ~ +384^^^ (either win $5000 or lose $1300)
. $4,000 on the over 28.5 @ - 312.5
. $1,600 on the under 30.5 @ +260
. $4,000 on the over 30.5 @ ~ -227 (either win $1,760 / or lose $4,000)

^^^: For this option, 8/13 of my bet was on @ +400 and the rest was on @ +360.

List of potential results:
Total 27 (or less) = +$3,110
Total 28 (exactly) = +$660
Total 29 (or higher) = -$360
link to original post



What stands out to me is you got under 28.5 at +384, and over 28.5 at -312.5. Which one had a betting limit? That was free money, right?
ksdjdj
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December 17th, 2022 at 2:13:34 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Steelers v Panthers game (betting summary):

"TL;DR version": I can either win ~$3,100 if the game goes under 27.5, or lose $360 if the game goes over 28.5.

----
"Longer version":

I got the following bets down (at different 'books):
. $500 on the under 27.5 @ +390
. Nothing on the over 27.5
. $1,300 on the under 28.5 @ ~ +384^^^ (either win $5000 or lose $1300)
. $4,000 on the over 28.5 @ - 312.5
. $1,600 on the under 30.5 @ +260
. $4,000 on the over 30.5 @ ~ -227 (either win $1,760 / or lose $4,000)

^^^: For this option, 8/13 of my bet was on @ +400 and the rest was on @ +360.

List of potential results:
Total 27 (or less) = +$3,110
Total 28 (exactly) = +$660
Total 29 (or higher) = -$360
link to original post



What stands out to me is you got under 28.5 at +384, and over 28.5 at -312.5. Which one had a betting limit? That was free money, right?
link to original post


I know what I said above (and that was originally my betting plan) but below is an update of my "potential results for this game":

. $500 on the under 27.5 @ +390
. Nothing on the over 27.5

. $1,300 on the under 28.5 @ ~ +384^^^ (either win $5,000 or lose $1,300)
. $4,000 on the over 28.5 @ - 312.5 $4,900 ... @ -312.5 (either win $1,568 or lose $4,900).
. Make either +$100 if under 28.5, or +$268 if over 28.5, on this part of the bet,

. $1,600 on the under 30.5 @ +260 (either win $4,160 / or lose $1,600)
. $4,000 on the over 30.5 @ ~ -227 (either win $1,760 / or lose $4,000)
. Make +$160 on this part of the bet (no matter what happens).

NEW list of potential results:
Total 27 (or less) = +$2,210
Total 28 (exactly) = - $240
Total 29 (or higher) = - $72

----
Analysis of bets/odds/options:

. I thought the over and under 30.5 had a similar $-EV (whether as a bet on either or both).
. No strong opinion (either way) for the 28.5 total (so was happy to make a bit of money on both options).
. I really liked the under 27.5 from an EV stand-point (at the time, I could have received ~ -345 for the over, but didn't think it was "worth it" even though it was "a positive hedging opportunity").

----
" Which one had a betting limit? "

All the "odds on prices" had an estimated limit of "to win about $2k" (as I originally tried to get $5k on the over 30.5 @ $1.44 / ~ -227, but it wouldn't accept the bet ).

For these markets, the other 'book seems to hover around "to win ~$3k to ~$5k", before they adjust the odds (or stop me from betting anymore, on that market).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 17, 2022
SOOPOO
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December 17th, 2022 at 11:39:52 AM permalink
Watching surprising Vikings game. Mid second quarter they were down 23 to the Colts. Nothing was going right for Vikes on offense, defense, or special teams. I went on DK to see how ridiculous the ‘to win’ odds had become. I was able to bet on the Colts $79 to win $10. I certainly am aware of a few times teams have come back from down 23 to win a game, but it can’t even be 10% of the time. I guess since there was more than half the game left, the Colts best player got injured, Minnesota supposedly has a ‘high powered’ offense…. 33-0 at halftime. No more ML bets.
ksdjdj
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December 17th, 2022 at 12:12:44 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Watching surprising Vikings game. Mid second quarter they were down 23 to the Colts. Nothing was going right for Vikes on offense, defense, or special teams. I went on DK to see how ridiculous the ‘to win’ odds had become. I was able to bet on the Colts $79 to win $10. I certainly am aware of a few times teams have come back from down 23 to win a game, but it can’t even be 10% of the time. I guess since there was more than half the game left, the Colts best player got injured, Minnesota supposedly has a ‘high powered’ offense…. 33-0 at halftime. No more ML bets.
link to original post


Even though the Vikings' are winning well above expected, I had (before adjusting for "strength of schedule, injuries etc") the Vikings around -5^^^ to -5.5^^^

^^^: These figures are just from a "for and against" stand-point

Vikings' will have to go for 8-pt TDs nearly every time they score (if they score) in the 2nd half.

----
Bets:

Before the game, I had $2.5k on the Vikings +1.5 @ $1.52 (part of the reason for the bet, they had the ML @ $1.52 , as well).

A few minutes ago, I also tried to get on for $4k on the Browns' -2.5 @ $1.95*** / ~ -105, but they cut me back to $1.6k.

***: I don't have an opinion for this game, but at the time of the bet Pinnacle had the Browns' -125 / Ravens' +113 at the 2.5 line.

----
Vikings' game update:

I started writing this at half time (the score was 33-0) but the 2nd half has started, and it is now 33-7 ###

###: I will be a bit surprised if the Vikings don't go for 2-pts on two of their next three TDs at least one of their next TDs (if they score anymore TDs, that is).

I amended the above (see strike-through )as the score is now 36-7 (no more score updates, unless the Vikings' "get close" ).

----
Update 2 (After the interception):
The Vikings' had to be "near perfect" , but threw an interception (game is still not over yet, but it will be a "miracle" for me to win my bet, now).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 17, 2022
SOOPOO
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December 17th, 2022 at 1:04:46 PM permalink
Never underestimate the incompetence of an NFL coach. Something like 30 seconds to go in third quarter, Colts have 2nd and 7. I can’t describe how obvious it is to run the ball so you get to the next quarter with the ball and worst case scenario you have 3rd and something. Colts threw a few incompletions still not getting to the 4th quarter. Around 5 extra plays.


Looks like I’m gonna lose my bet!!!! (Maybe)
ksdjdj
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December 17th, 2022 at 1:23:53 PM permalink
Hope the game ends in an OT tie, so that you at least get your money back (right?) and I still win on my Vikings' +1.5, as well.

-----
Extra:

I haven't looked to see who they are playing yet, but I will probably bet against the Vikings' next game if they win (because the Fans'/ betting public will probably be "hyped from the come-back", amongst other things).

----
Update (with 1:20 to go)

Vikings' could still win in Reg.
ksdjdj
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December 17th, 2022 at 2:04:01 PM permalink
Deleted (duplicate post, for some reason).
ksdjdj
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December 17th, 2022 at 2:04:01 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Hope the game ends in an OT tie, so that you at least get your money back (right?) and I still win on my Vikings' +1.5, as well.

-----
Extra:

I haven't looked to see who they are playing yet, but I will probably bet against the Vikings' next game if they win (because the Fans'/ betting public will probably be "hyped from the come-back", amongst other things).

----
Update (with 1:20 to go)

Vikings' could still win in Reg.
link to original post


Wow, "largest come-back in NFL history" !!!
SOOPOO
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December 17th, 2022 at 2:08:14 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Hope the game ends in an OT tie, so that you at least get your money back (right?) and I still win on my Vikings' +1.5, as well.

-----
Extra:

I haven't looked to see who they are playing yet, but I will probably bet against the Vikings' next game if they win (because the Fans'/ betting public will probably be "hyped from the come-back", amongst other things).

----
Update (with 1:20 to go)

Vikings' could still win in Reg.
link to original post


Wow, "largest come-back in NFL history" !!!
link to original post




It was a lock. Once I bet against the Vikes what other result would you expect. I did make a bunch of $2 on ‘Colts not to score next possession.
I did have Colts plus points as first in a parlay. Next is Bills. This one is just ML.
billryan
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December 17th, 2022 at 3:21:27 PM permalink
Where was this broadcast? My computer said it was on CBS but the local channel was showing basketball.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
avianrandy
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December 17th, 2022 at 3:26:24 PM permalink
I believe game was on nfl network. Colts gave an early Christmas present with that delay of game penalty making the field goal 40 yard instead of 45. Vikings clinch NFC north with that win
ksdjdj
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December 17th, 2022 at 3:46:37 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
Bets:

Before the game, I had $2.5k on the Vikings +1.5 @ $1.52 (part of the reason for the bet, they had the ML @ $1.52 , as well).

A few minutes ago, I also tried to get on for $4k on the Browns' -2.5 @ $1.95*** / ~ -105, but they cut me back to $1.6k.
(snip)
link to original post


Can still lose, but I am also on the Browns' $7.5k @ -150 *** .

***: If this wins, then I am about square for the week, when combined with my "blunder" (cough) I mean "bet to test my current limits" on the recent Thursday night game.

These bets' that I am posting are "true" (in terms of the odds for the ML and / or spread that I am taking) but I am "tweaking the amounts to make it harder for any 'book to guess who I am" (hopefully)
.

----
Extra:

Lucky (for me) the Ravens' Kicker missed a "seemingly easy FG (for him, at least)'" just before Half-Time.

Update (Just after the Ravens' 2nd missed FG): This one was blocked though (so fair enough, with that one being a "miss").

Update 2: Another missed FG, this time by the Browns'

----
Update (about 1620, Pac Time):

For the Dolphins' game, I just had $300 in bonus bets on the Under 31.5 @ +450 .
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 17, 2022
DRich
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ksdjdj
December 17th, 2022 at 3:55:51 PM permalink
It looks like we will get a repeat of last years championship game. The Bison squeaked one out and the Jackrabbits are crushing.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ksdjdj
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December 18th, 2022 at 5:13:46 PM permalink
Even though I think it is great value as well, at up to~26% EV, I had a "for fun" bet of $150 on the Giants -6.5*** @ +500.

*** (Main Reason, for not having more money on it): I already had a lot bigger bet on the Giants +4.5 @ +100, earlier, and don't want to "load up to much on the same side / team".
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2022 at 8:03:27 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Even though I think it is great value as well, at up to~26% EV, I had a "for fun" bet of $150 on the Giants -6.5*** @ +500.

*** (Main Reason, for not having more money on it): I already had a lot bigger bet on the Giants +4.5 @ +100, earlier, and don't want to "load up to much on the same side / team".
link to original post



Are these mid game bets? When could you get +500 on Giants -6.5?
ksdjdj
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December 18th, 2022 at 8:50:52 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Even though I think it is great value as well, at up to~26% EV, I had a "for fun" bet of $150 on the Giants -6.5*** @ +500.

*** (Main Reason, for not having more money on it): I already had a lot bigger bet on the Giants +4.5 @ +100, earlier, and don't want to "load up to much on the same side / team".
link to original post



Are these mid game bets? When could you get +500 on Giants -6.5?
link to original post


"TL;DR answer": Like most of my bets, I had this one before kick-off.


"Longer / more detailed answer":
I am about to send you a PM, with a "one-drive screenshot" of my most recent bets (with the one in question included).

Reminder: I am posting "slightly wrong $ amounts" in this thread, on purpose (see note in partial quote of the relevant post below).

Quote: ksdjdj

(big snip, of a lot of what was written, for relevance)

These bets' that I am posting are "true" (in terms of the odds for the ML and / or spread that I am taking) but I am "tweaking the amounts to make it harder for any 'book to guess who I am" (hopefully)
.
link to original post

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 18, 2022
ksdjdj
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December 19th, 2022 at 3:13:35 AM permalink
Not my opinion, so that is why it is not in the graded bets thread, but I had the following bet in the Rams @ GB game:

$750 @ +220 on "Green Bay Packers -6.5 x Under 41.5 Points " (same game: parlay / double / multi).

-----
Extra:
If I can remember the figure off the top of my head correctly, I think I actually had the Rams' +2.5*** to +3.0*** for this game.
*** (important): those are the figures I got before replacing Stafford with Mayfield, and Donald also still being ruled out (plus a few more out for the Rams ).
ksdjdj
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December 19th, 2022 at 2:20:04 PM permalink
Thought the Packers' odds had a good chance of moving in a favorable direction, so I had:

~12 hours ago: a bet on them at $1.31 ML (which is almost perfectly in the middle, between -320 to -325 American).
~A couple of hours ago: a bet on the Packers' -5.5 @ $1.68 (~ -147).

----
Early bets for next week:

Lions' -2.5 @ $1.90 (~ -111)
Lions' ML @ $1.70 (~ -143)
Giants' +3.5 @ $1.85 (~ - 118)

Note 1: I wanted all my bet on the Lions' ATS, but they cut me to win about $1600.

Note 2: I didn't put these in the graded bets thread, as I mainly had these bets because I thought there was a "greater than 50% chance the odds would move in my favor".
wizardofbuffalo
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December 21st, 2022 at 5:04:55 AM permalink
might as well play craps - put it on the pass line...
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