FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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September 29th, 2022 at 4:29:15 PM permalink
I missed out on $100 by including Miami over middle Tennessee state in my parlay last weekend
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 29th, 2022 at 5:06:35 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I missed out on $100 by including Miami over middle Tennessee state in my parlay last weekend
link to original post



I had Miami -26.5. Didn’t go as I had planned….

I have the ‘early win’ 7 point thingie on the Dolphins. I am sort of segregating that bet in my mind…..

I took a flyer on Bengals -16.5. I think I got around 3-1. I also got a bunch of parlays basically needing Dolphins not to score much….
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 29th, 2022 at 5:06:37 PM permalink
Just got my bets on for the BYU VS UTAH STATE game, because the main book that I am using for this just put up the "line x totals" about an hour or two ago.

Anyway, while attempting to do some "offset betting", I got these "line x totals" (see bet summary below)

-------
Bet Summary:

Book A: Utah State +25.5 / Over 59.5 and BYU -25.5 / Under 59.5
Combined odds about +139
Amount: ~26.25% ***

Book B: BYU -26.5 / Over 60.5 and Utah State +26.5 / Under 59.5
Combined odds about -121
Amount: ~73.75% ***

***: These are the %s' of the total amount that I have bet on this game.

Important: This game was not a true "offset betting" opportunity, because the "Lines x Totals" were not the same, even with the same book (see further analysis below).

-------
Bet Analysis:

If this was a true "offset bet^^^ ", I will either:
lose about 37.26% of the total money invested in this game or
win about 34.70% of the total money invested in this game.

^^^: By attempting to offset, I have received the equivalent odds of roughly -108 most of time, in terms of "max win" vs "max loss".

But, because of the differences in the "Lines x Totals", for each bet there is a small chance that all the bets can lose, or two bets can win.

General: About 1/90 games end with a difference of 26, and going by the pre-game odds, BYU roughly have a 93.5% chance of winning the game.
So, there is about 4/385 chance that BYU will win by exactly 26 points (In reality the chance is probably a bit higher than that, since the line for the game was around -26 for BYU).
Also, assume that 59.5 was the "50/50" total for this game.

1) "Two bets could win": From the figures above, we can get a rough chance of the total going under 59.5, and BYU winning by 26 points, and that is about 4/770 (see working below).

Working = "Chance that BYU win by 26" x "Chance of Total under 59.5" = 4/385 x 50% = 4/770.

2) "All bets could lose": From the figures above, we can get a rough chance of the total going over 59.5, and BYU winning by 26 points, and that is about 4/770 (see working below).

Working = "Chance that BYU win by 26" x "Chance of Total over 59.5" = 4/385 x 50% = 4/770.

3) "If the total lands on 60": I will either lose on all bets, or I will lose ~37.26% of all the money that I bet on this game (the chance of this is very small ### ).
###: If the total lands on 60, then the only way I can lose all the bets is if the finale score is 17 - 43 (BYU wins).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 29, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 29th, 2022 at 7:51:23 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

I just had a $1500 bet on the Dolphins (-7) ...
(snip)
link to original post


With about 12 minutes to go in the 4th (score 15-17) I bailed out of this bet for a loss of ~ 865.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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September 30th, 2022 at 12:12:46 AM permalink
I did another series of "offset bets" (similar to this post here ) for the New Mexico @ UNLV game starting in about 20 hours.

Note 1: The wagers below are biased towards "New Mexico +14.5 ..." , since those were the ones that I thought had the best value (using Pinnacle and other sites as references).

Note 2: I tied up 25% of my betting funds in this.

Note 3: I don't want to tie up all my funds, because there looks to be better options available later this weekend (for College Football).

Note 4: Since I am not disclosing the prices I got, I will call this an "investment summary " rather than "bet summary" (they mean / or pretty much mean the same thing, though).

----
Investment Summary:

Main Bets:

New Mexico +14.5 / Under 44.5
ROI if this bet wins: ~2.5%
Estimated chance of this bet winning = ~29.3%
Contribution to average ROI = ~0.75%

New Mexico +14.5 / Over 44.5
ROI if this bet wins: ~8.8%
Estimated chance of this bet winning = ~22.7%
Contribution to average ROI = ~2.00%

Other /"Offsetting" Bets:

UNLV -14.5 / Over 44.5
UNLV -14.5 / Under 44.5
Average ROI if one of these bets win: about -0.4%
Estimated combined chances of these bets winning = ~48%
Contribution to average ROI = about -0.19%

Therefore, based on the above figures, the average ROI for this series of bets is: 2.56%.

Proof: 0.75% +2.00% - 0.19% = 2.56% (if I worked out the above, correctly).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 30, 2022
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 30th, 2022 at 12:01:55 PM permalink
I (almost) feel bad about this….

I won a big (for me…) parlay….
Bengals -3.5. Under 47.5. Burrow over 280yds.
The biggie…. Tua under 209 yards. The ‘fair line’ for Tua yds passing was around 275. For Burrow around 250…. So got plus odds on both of those! I did not expect Tua to be right after his concussion against the Bills….

Also won a bet (live) on Tua not to throw a second interception at even money.

The feel bad reason? DraftKings refunded my Dolphin money line bet because of the Tua injury!!!!

It’s funny…. I ‘know’ I’m no better than 50/50 on pointspread type bets, but I am patting myself on the back for ‘knowing’ how this game was going to play out!
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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October 1st, 2022 at 5:11:35 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
New Mexico +14.5 / Over 44.5
ROI if this bet wins: ~8.8%
(snip)
link to original post


The one with the best estimated EV (ROI) ended up winning, so that was great. But, it was with the book that doesn't do the quick withdrawals.

Anyway I won't say the $ amounts, but below are my bets for the "Early Morning Australia time College games":

Note 1: All prices are in decimal odds (as I am just cutting and pasting from the 'book).

Note 2: The figures' in brackets are the rough % of my "total betting funds" , that I wagered on that betting option.

Massachusetts +19.5 / Over 53.5 @ 5.00 (0.39% )
Eastern Michigan -19.5 / Under 53.5 @ 4.80 (0.44%)

Utah -10.5 / Under 54.5 @ 4.20 (0.23%)

James Madison -21.5 / Under 51.5 @ 5.00 (0.51%)
Texas State +21.5 / Over 51.5 @ 5.50 (0.46%)

Navy +13.5 / Over 38.5 @ 5.00 (0.25%)
Air Force -13.5 / Under 38.5 @ 4.60 (0.26%)

Temple +18.5 / Over 50.5 @ 5.00 (0.37%)
Memphis -18.5 / Under 50.5 @ 5.00 (0.37%)

Wisconsin -6.5 / Under 43.5 @ 4.00 (0.13%)

Louisville -13.5 / Under 51.5 @ 4.40 (0.23%)

Minnesota -10.5 / Under 52.5 @ 4.10 (0.42%)

Michigan -10.5 / Under 42.5 @ 4.40 (0.21%)
Iowa +10.5 / Over 42.5 @ 4.60 (0.20%)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 1st, 2022 at 11:47:07 AM permalink
Why does it matter to you if a book doesn’t do ‘quick withdrawals’? I think if I win the best I could do is around two days. But I just leave a pot of money in each book, and withdraw once I get over a certain amount.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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October 1st, 2022 at 11:51:15 AM permalink
Does your sportsbook allow “call bets” ?
It’s all about making that GTA
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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October 1st, 2022 at 1:07:01 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Why does it matter to you if a book doesn’t do ‘quick withdrawals’? I think if I win the best I could do is around two days. But I just leave a pot of money in each book, and withdraw once I get over a certain amount.
link to original post


The reason it could have mattered is because last week I would have probably been able to "hammer" the Wagner @ Syracuse game with all my funds***, and received ~25% ROI (if I made my bets to get the same payout on each selection).

***: If this game was played last week, instead of this week.

But, it doesn't matter now, because the "good correlated play" 'book doesn't seem to be doing that anymore, if the line is around 23 or bigger.

Note: I was expecting this, because this has happened every year for the last few years now (the 'book putting up good correlated odds/plays early in the NCAAF season, and then realizing their error).

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