Diary of bets (b) ...
October 4th, 2022 at 8:38:17 PM
permalink
I am starting a 2nd thread^^^ of my "less profitable, but still +EV, IMO" NFL bets, because I want to keep track of them as well.
^^^: See thread in link here for the other "higher estimated average EV" ones.
-----
Week 5:
Note 1: For doubles*** and trebles***, all legs must win for the bet to be graded as a winner.
***: Except, for any doubles or trebles with games/legs that end in a "handicap tie", then it just means that leg is void (eg a treble, becomes a double, with the voided leg removed).
Note 2: Odds are in decimal format (I find it easier, for these kinds of bets).
Also, the odds for each individual bet/leg are:
Singles: See bet below (in singles section).
Doubles: NYG = 5.25, CAR = 6.25, CHI = 6.65, HOU = 6.65, and LVR = 6.25.
Trebles: NYG = 5.25, CAR = 5.00, TEN = 3.25, and DAL = 3.75.
----
Single(s):
NYG -2.5 = 480 @ 5.25
----
Doubles:
NYG -2.5 x CAR -5.5 = 120 @ 32.8
NYG -2.5 x CHI -5.5 = 110 @ 34.9
NYG -2.5 x HOU -5.5 = 110 @ 34.9
NYG -2.5 x LVR -5.5 = 120 @ 32.8
CAR -5.5 x CHI -5.5 = 90 @ 41.6
CAR -5.5 x HOU -5.5 = 90 @ 41.6
CAR -5.5 x LVR -5.5 = 100 @ 39.1
CHI -5.5 x HOU -5.5 = 180 @ 44.2
CHI -5.5 x LVR -5.5 = 190 @ 41.6
HOU -5.5 x LVR -5.5 = 190 @ 41.6
Total bet on Doubles: $1,300
----
Trebles:
NYG -2.5 x CAR -3 x TEN -7 = 70 @ 85.3 ###
NYG -2.5 x CAR -3 x DAL -3 = 60 @ 98.4 ###
CAR -3 x TEN -7 x DAL -3 = 110 @ 60.9
NYG -2.5 x TEN -7 x DAL -3 = 80 @ 64.0
Edit: had another 20 on the "strike-through" one above, as I made a "bet sizing error".
So the total for:
NYG -2.5 x TEN -7 x DAL -3 is now 100 @ 64.0
Edit 2:
###: IMO, I also had about "1.5 x too much" on these ones, but I won't "re-do them" (as the odds went down for these options, overall). .
Total bet on Trebles: $340 (was $320)
Total bet this week: $2,120 (was $2,100)
----
This was just a "test week" to see how long it takes for me to work out and put these bets on.
In the future I will probably wait closer to game day before I have these kinds of bets, because I would guess that on average the prices will "go out, closer to game time" (because I suspect most of these bets will be on the 'dog, in the future).
----
Update/Edit:
I think I bet $700 in total, and lost $700 with these kinds of bets last week, so I will add that onto the summary figures (P/L figures, Turnover, etc) once the Week 5 bets have been resolved.
^^^: See thread in link here for the other "higher estimated average EV" ones.
-----
Week 5:
Note 1: For doubles*** and trebles***, all legs must win for the bet to be graded as a winner.
***: Except, for any doubles or trebles with games/legs that end in a "handicap tie", then it just means that leg is void (eg a treble, becomes a double, with the voided leg removed).
Note 2: Odds are in decimal format (I find it easier, for these kinds of bets).
Also, the odds for each individual bet/leg are:
Singles: See bet below (in singles section).
Doubles: NYG = 5.25, CAR = 6.25, CHI = 6.65, HOU = 6.65, and LVR = 6.25.
Trebles: NYG = 5.25, CAR = 5.00, TEN = 3.25, and DAL = 3.75.
----
Single(s):
NYG -2.5 = 480 @ 5.25
----
Doubles:
NYG -2.5 x CAR -5.5 = 120 @ 32.8
NYG -2.5 x CHI -5.5 = 110 @ 34.9
NYG -2.5 x HOU -5.5 = 110 @ 34.9
NYG -2.5 x LVR -5.5 = 120 @ 32.8
CAR -5.5 x CHI -5.5 = 90 @ 41.6
CAR -5.5 x HOU -5.5 = 90 @ 41.6
CAR -5.5 x LVR -5.5 = 100 @ 39.1
CHI -5.5 x HOU -5.5 = 180 @ 44.2
CHI -5.5 x LVR -5.5 = 190 @ 41.6
HOU -5.5 x LVR -5.5 = 190 @ 41.6
Total bet on Doubles: $1,300
----
Trebles:
NYG -2.5 x CAR -3 x TEN -7 = 70 @ 85.3 ###
NYG -2.5 x CAR -3 x DAL -3 = 60 @ 98.4 ###
CAR -3 x TEN -7 x DAL -3 = 110 @ 60.9
NYG -2.5 x TEN -7 x DAL -3 = 80 @ 64.0
Edit: had another 20 on the "strike-through" one above, as I made a "bet sizing error".
So the total for:
NYG -2.5 x TEN -7 x DAL -3 is now 100 @ 64.0
Edit 2:
###: IMO, I also had about "1.5 x too much" on these ones, but I won't "re-do them" (as the odds went down for these options, overall). .
Total bet on Trebles: $340 (was $320)
Total bet this week: $2,120 (was $2,100)
----
This was just a "test week" to see how long it takes for me to work out and put these bets on.
In the future I will probably wait closer to game day before I have these kinds of bets, because I would guess that on average the prices will "go out, closer to game time" (because I suspect most of these bets will be on the 'dog, in the future).
----
Update/Edit:
I think I bet $700 in total, and lost $700 with these kinds of bets last week, so I will add that onto the summary figures (P/L figures, Turnover, etc) once the Week 5 bets have been resolved.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 4, 2022
October 9th, 2022 at 1:28:08 PM
permalink
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Total bet this week: $2,120 (was $2,100)
(snip)
link to original post
I also had a single bet of 500 to win 2000 (so $5 or +400) on the Panthers*** @ -3.0, so my total for "these kinds of bets" is now $2,620 for the week,
***: Because the 49ers are up by 7 early in the game, I can cash out for 280.
----
Update (~1435, Pac Time):
Cashed out on all remaining / unresolved Panthers bets listed in this thread for ~573 (I did it at the end of the 1st half, the 49ers are up by 14).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Oct 9, 2022
