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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 25th, 2023 at 6:35:29 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

So far 11 wins. 20 losses. But that’s up good $$ because most of the bets are parlays.
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wow_____!!!!
you're winning a lot of parlays - and I guess many of them are 3 game parlays that pay a lot
really impressive
.
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Many of my parlays are 4 teamers…. Buttttt…… due to the nature of the parlays mostly with 4 significant favorites the final value might not even be +200. Often I get a free bet if I hit 3 of 4. It all depends on the offer. I’ve had days where I might have 20 2, 3, or 4 team parlays and only win a few. I have +EV every day, that’s for sure. I certainly do not win every day.


I have a free bet to use. My live parlay is the LA teams both to win. Go Lakers and Clippers!
odiousgambit
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November 26th, 2023 at 2:20:47 AM permalink
I am in a drought for winning the parlays and am also losing the 'no sweat' second chances that I had to parlay to get. This losing streak prompted me to look upthread at just how +EV these things are if the initial same game parlays are how I am to get the 'no sweats' . A losing streak will make a guy take a hard look

On the other hand, I guess it makes DK happy and they came up with a BOGO this weekend where +EV has no doubt. Black Friday BOGO... Bet One Get One: Place any bet and get a bonus bet up to $10! This is not a no sweat it seems, you get the $10 bet in addition, win or lose , it seems to say. I have to decide today what to bet on

now you might chide me for it only being $10, but don't forget I'm a piker with online sports gambling
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 26th, 2023 at 7:38:21 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I am in a drought for winning the parlays and am also losing the 'no sweat' second chances that I had to parlay to get. This losing streak prompted me to look upthread at just how +EV these things are if the initial same game parlays are how I am to get the 'no sweats' . A losing streak will make a guy take a hard look

On the other hand, I guess it makes DK happy and they came up with a BOGO this weekend where +EV has no doubt. Black Friday BOGO... Bet One Get One: Place any bet and get a bonus bet up to $10! This is not a no sweat it seems, you get the $10 bet in addition, win or lose , it seems to say. I have to decide today what to bet on

now you might chide me for it only being $10, but don't forget I'm a piker with online sports gambling
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Your first point is why you should concentrate on EV, not results!
You don’t pull all your money out of the stock market after a losing day? A losing week? A losing month? Etc….

LA parlay won last night. Turned $25 free bet into $80 cash.

Your $10 BOGO is my $5 BOGO on DK. I am continuously being squeezed. I will not be surprised if I get 86’d from my one of these sites…….

Favorite long shot parlay today….
Ravens-2.5/over 48.5/Allen under 104.5 yards. $25 returns $231. Feels like +EV.
unJon
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November 26th, 2023 at 11:50:32 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

I am in a drought for winning the parlays and am also losing the 'no sweat' second chances that I had to parlay to get. This losing streak prompted me to look upthread at just how +EV these things are if the initial same game parlays are how I am to get the 'no sweats' . A losing streak will make a guy take a hard look

On the other hand, I guess it makes DK happy and they came up with a BOGO this weekend where +EV has no doubt. Black Friday BOGO... Bet One Get One: Place any bet and get a bonus bet up to $10! This is not a no sweat it seems, you get the $10 bet in addition, win or lose , it seems to say. I have to decide today what to bet on

now you might chide me for it only being $10, but don't forget I'm a piker with online sports gambling
link to original post



Your first point is why you should concentrate on EV, not results!
You don’t pull all your money out of the stock market after a losing day? A losing week? A losing month? Etc….

LA parlay won last night. Turned $25 free bet into $80 cash.

Your $10 BOGO is my $5 BOGO on DK. I am continuously being squeezed. I will not be surprised if I get 86’d from my one of these sites…….

Favorite long shot parlay today….
Ravens-2.5/over 48.5/Allen under 104.5 yards. $25 returns $231. Feels like +EV.
link to original post



While Ravens -2.5 will correlate to Allen under 104.5, the Allen under should be negatively correlated with the over 48.5. I don’t know how to think about it.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 26th, 2023 at 1:11:30 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

I am in a drought for winning the parlays and am also losing the 'no sweat' second chances that I had to parlay to get. This losing streak prompted me to look upthread at just how +EV these things are if the initial same game parlays are how I am to get the 'no sweats' . A losing streak will make a guy take a hard look

On the other hand, I guess it makes DK happy and they came up with a BOGO this weekend where +EV has no doubt. Black Friday BOGO... Bet One Get One: Place any bet and get a bonus bet up to $10! This is not a no sweat it seems, you get the $10 bet in addition, win or lose , it seems to say. I have to decide today what to bet on

now you might chide me for it only being $10, but don't forget I'm a piker with online sports gambling
link to original post



Your first point is why you should concentrate on EV, not results!
You don’t pull all your money out of the stock market after a losing day? A losing week? A losing month? Etc….

LA parlay won last night. Turned $25 free bet into $80 cash.

Your $10 BOGO is my $5 BOGO on DK. I am continuously being squeezed. I will not be surprised if I get 86’d from my one of these sites…….

Favorite long shot parlay today….
Ravens-2.5/over 48.5/Allen under 104.5 yards. $25 returns $231. Feels like +EV.
link to original post



While Ravens -2.5 will correlate to Allen under 104.5, the Allen under should be negatively correlated with the over 48.5. I don’t know how to think about it.
link to original post



Agree. But 104.5 is a really high number. 6 catches for 95 is probably his expected numbers.
I’m getting a tad over 10-1. I just feel that the combo comes up well over 10% of the time.
0-10 so far. But have 3 live parlays. One needs Brentford to win next weekend! The bigger ones need West Carolina to win in BBall today. Third needs Oilers in NHL. I’m all over the place!
AZDuffman
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November 26th, 2023 at 4:32:31 PM permalink
I have to say in-game betting even for a low amount makes the game more fun. I actually paid attention to most of the late games.

Middled one game, risk of $0.50 wins $19. Other attempt failed. Stupid Bills!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 26th, 2023 at 6:12:01 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I have to say in-game betting even for a low amount makes the game more fun. I actually paid attention to most of the late games.

Middled one game, risk of $0.50 wins $19. Other attempt failed. Stupid Bills!
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I get a few offers for in game boosts. Otherwise they take more juice. Like -115 instead of -110. I’ve posted before about a few errors I found. But I only bet small amounts on them.

I do make some -EV in game bets as hedges. Had a team money line that was up a bunch. Took the other team with points. So I could win both. But not lose both. I feel I need to make some of these bets so it doesn’t look like I only make bonus/boost bets.
AZDuffman
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November 27th, 2023 at 2:42:15 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

I have to say in-game betting even for a low amount makes the game more fun. I actually paid attention to most of the late games.

Middled one game, risk of $0.50 wins $19. Other attempt failed. Stupid Bills!
link to original post



I get a few offers for in game boosts. Otherwise they take more juice. Like -115 instead of -110. I’ve posted before about a few errors I found. But I only bet small amounts on them.

I do make some -EV in game bets as hedges. Had a team money line that was up a bunch. Took the other team with points. So I could win both. But not lose both. I feel I need to make some of these bets so it doesn’t look like I only make bonus/boost bets.
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In the end I would have made a little more than if I had just let both overs play out. OTOH, if Philly had stopped that late game drive I would have middled that game as well. As to KC/LAS I was able to get into that game with a weak in game over in the 1st quarter. You are right on the extra juice, though I think I managed to get my unsuccessful Bills middle down at -105 by being patient.

In-game betting is little more than day trading.

In other bets the stupid Texans hitting the flipping crossbar cost me my 3 way box. Yeah, just $1 a leg but that added to $25 or so. It was a IRL version of an episode of "Coach" where Hayden called a timeout he didn't have, got a 5 yard delay of game penalty, went for the FG, and hit the crossbar.

OTOH it was all better than being the person who merely feeds the slots all day.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
lilredrooster
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November 27th, 2023 at 3:15:48 AM permalink
.
the Bills/Eagles was one of the best games I've ever seen
very entertaining
cold and rainy and a critical 59 yard field goal
the Bills were very tough - they just needed some luck to get a W - didn't get it
.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Nov 27, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
AZDuffman
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November 27th, 2023 at 4:49:59 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
the Bills/Eagles was one of the best games I've ever seen
very entertaining
cold and rainy and a critical 59 yard field goal
the Bills were very tough - they just needed some luck to get a W - didn't get it
.
link to original post



It went from a grinding game to a shootout. Bad officiating. Horsecollar right in front of the ref not called?!

I think both Ds got too tired by game end.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mental
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November 27th, 2023 at 6:15:44 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

OTOH it was all better than being the person who merely feeds the slots all day.
link to original post

I am that person. I was behind on slots by $10K yesterday, but I ended up +$8600. It was a lot more fun for me than sweating games. And I am not dependent on the judgement and performance of pro athletes that I have never met. I just need lady luck to remain neutral in my contest.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
SOOPOO
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November 27th, 2023 at 7:17:24 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: AZDuffman

OTOH it was all better than being the person who merely feeds the slots all day.
link to original post

I am that person. I was behind on slots by $10K yesterday, but I ended up +$8600. It was a lot more fun for me than sweating games. And I am not dependent on the judgement and performance of pro athletes that I have never met. I just need lady luck to remain neutral in my contest.
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I did the same as you! (Except place a decimal point between the 86 and 00).

Actually hit my two parlays I mentioned but lost almost all the others I didn’t mention. Down $$ yesterday.
My bet of the day at + odds is the Sabres to lose by more than 1 goal. It itself would be -EV but I got a nice boost. I have a Spanish soccer game to finish 0-0 or 1-1. And I only win the 1-1 game if both goals are scored in same half. That’s my long shot of the day.
AZDuffman
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November 27th, 2023 at 8:40:46 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: AZDuffman

OTOH it was all better than being the person who merely feeds the slots all day.
link to original post

I am that person. I was behind on slots by $10K yesterday, but I ended up +$8600. It was a lot more fun for me than sweating games. And I am not dependent on the judgement and performance of pro athletes that I have never met. I just need lady luck to remain neutral in my contest.
link to original post



I avoid using the term “luck” instead prefer “chance.”

Each his own on slots. My experience with them is you gotta really feed them hoping for a jackpot. I’d rather look at stats snd tendencies than hope the RNG smiles on me.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mental
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November 27th, 2023 at 10:48:10 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Each his own on slots. My experience with them is you gotta really feed them hoping for a jackpot. I’d rather look at stats and tendencies than hope the RNG smiles on me.
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If you are playing slots and depending on luck, then you are playing the wrong slots or playing them the wrong way. I know what my EV is rather precisely when I play slots. The same is not true of sports betting or the ponies. If you enjoy handicapping, good for you. I prefer slots because there are plenty of clear +EV opportunities. Handicapping, not so much.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 27th, 2023 at 2:08:15 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Mental

Quote: AZDuffman

OTOH it was all better than being the person who merely feeds the slots all day.
link to original post

I am that person. I was behind on slots by $10K yesterday, but I ended up +$8600. It was a lot more fun for me than sweating games. And I am not dependent on the judgement and performance of pro athletes that I have never met. I just need lady luck to remain neutral in my contest.
link to original post



I did the same as you! (Except place a decimal point between the 86 and 00).

Actually hit my two parlays I mentioned but lost almost all the others I didn’t mention. Down $$ yesterday.
My bet of the day at + odds is the Sabres to lose by more than 1 goal. It itself would be -EV but I got a nice boost. I have a Spanish soccer game to finish 0-0 or 1-1. And I only win the 1-1 game if both goals are scored in same half. That’s my long shot of the day.
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Girona 1. Bilbao 1. Both goals second half. Cha Ching. I love it when a plan comes together. I think I also get a 50% profit boost to use in the future.

As far as Mental always knowing the EV on his slot play, there are many bets I can figure out my exact EV. If I use a 50% profit boost on a random -110 bet, the EV is exact. Notice I said random. If I ‘pick’ one using my 48-49% rate of success….. it will be lower. And of course my same game parlays are guesses as well.
AZDuffman
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November 27th, 2023 at 2:18:28 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: AZDuffman

Each his own on slots. My experience with them is you gotta really feed them hoping for a jackpot. I’d rather look at stats and tendencies than hope the RNG smiles on me.
link to original post

If you are playing slots and depending on luck, then you are playing the wrong slots or playing them the wrong way. I know what my EV is rather precisely when I play slots. The same is not true of sports betting or the ponies. If you enjoy handicapping, good for you. I prefer slots because there are plenty of clear +EV opportunities. Handicapping, not so much.
link to original post



I've never had the bankroll to work let alone find a slot +EV so I'd rather try to handicap to better than the 52.5% needed to beat the -110 vig.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mental
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November 27th, 2023 at 4:17:45 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

As far as Mental always knowing the EV on his slot play, there are many bets I can figure out my exact EV. If I use a 50% profit boost on a random -110 bet, the EV is exact. Notice I said random. If I ‘pick’ one using my 48-49% rate of success….. it will be lower. And of course my same game parlays are guesses as well.
link to original post


I would never use a percentage profit boost on an even money bet. I feel this is a horrible waste of value.

Suppose a 50/50 proposition normally pays $191 for a $100 bet. With a 50% profit boost, pays 100+1.5*91 = $236.25. You win half of the time, so the EV is $18.25. Now consider a +500/-715 bet. If I use the same juice and convert to implied probabilities, here are the scenarios for a 50% boost:
Bet $100 at +500 to win $850 about 16% of the time so EV = $35.74
Bet $100 to -715 to win $121 about 84% of the time so EV = $1.68

It is crime to waste a percentage boost on a heavy favorite. It is minor crime to waste it on a 50/50 bet. I always use my 50% profit boosts on longshots.

Maybe there are other books that calculate boost in different ways, but I always see them interpreted this way. One way of looking at it is that only the profit is boosted and not the stake, so you are better of placing bets where you lose the unboosted stake most of the time. The same is true of free bets where you never get paid the stake .
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 27th, 2023 at 7:15:39 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: SOOPOO

As far as Mental always knowing the EV on his slot play, there are many bets I can figure out my exact EV. If I use a 50% profit boost on a random -110 bet, the EV is exact. Notice I said random. If I ‘pick’ one using my 48-49% rate of success….. it will be lower. And of course my same game parlays are guesses as well.
link to original post


I would never use a percentage profit boost on an even money bet. I feel this is a horrible waste of value.

Suppose a 50/50 proposition normally pays $191 for a $100 bet. With a 50% profit boost, pays 100+1.5*91 = $236.25. You win half of the time, so the EV is $18.25. Now consider a +500/-715 bet. If I use the same juice and convert to implied probabilities, here are the scenarios for a 50% boost:
Bet $100 at +500 to win $850 about 16% of the time so EV = $35.74
Bet $100 to -715 to win $121 about 84% of the time so EV = $1.68

It is crime to waste a percentage boost on a heavy favorite. It is minor crime to waste it on a 50/50 bet. I always use my 50% profit boosts on longshots.

Maybe there are other books that calculate boost in different ways, but I always see them interpreted this way. One way of looking at it is that only the profit is boosted and not the stake, so you are better of placing bets where you lose the unboosted stake most of the time. The same is true of free bets where you never get paid the stake .
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I don’t either. I was using an example of exact EV calculation. Recently I used one for a 3 leg parlay. Won first leg. Next two legs were pushed with both games finishing exactly on the number. I did get the small win with small boost. Since then I pick games with 1/2 point spreads.
Free bets are the same. NEVER take a bet that might result in a push.
odiousgambit
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:37:33 AM permalink
The offer isn't re-instated if the bet is voided due to a push, so I found that out at BetMGM right away and learned my lesson ... I assume it's the same everywhere

sometimes they let you cancel the bet, hoping you don't know the offer goes bye bye too
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AZDuffman
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November 28th, 2023 at 4:38:26 AM permalink
Quote: Mental



It is crime to waste a percentage boost on a heavy favorite. It is minor crime to waste it on a 50/50 bet. I always use my 50% profit boosts on longshots.



First thing is you usually cannot use a bonus bet on a heavy favorite. Most places I see cut you off around --300 or so. "Heavy favorite" can mean different things to different people, though.

Second part goes back to your background. People who have been trained in finance and trading are more likely to use the bonus to scalp some profit rather than hope for the once in a year hit. The more professional bettor the more they are going to do this. The more they are doing it for recreation the more they will take the longshot.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
unJon
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MentalDRich
November 28th, 2023 at 4:52:49 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Mental



It is crime to waste a percentage boost on a heavy favorite. It is minor crime to waste it on a 50/50 bet. I always use my 50% profit boosts on longshots.



First thing is you usually cannot use a bonus bet on a heavy favorite. Most places I see cut you off around --300 or so. "Heavy favorite" can mean different things to different people, though.

Second part goes back to your background. People who have been trained in finance and trading are more likely to use the bonus to scalp some profit rather than hope for the once in a year hit. The more professional bettor the more they are going to do this. The more they are doing it for recreation the more they will take the longshot.
link to original post



100% disagree. Someone trained in finance should easily see how much EV is wasted using a bonus on a favorite or 50/50.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AZDuffman
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November 28th, 2023 at 5:15:08 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Mental



It is crime to waste a percentage boost on a heavy favorite. It is minor crime to waste it on a 50/50 bet. I always use my 50% profit boosts on longshots.



First thing is you usually cannot use a bonus bet on a heavy favorite. Most places I see cut you off around --300 or so. "Heavy favorite" can mean different things to different people, though.

Second part goes back to your background. People who have been trained in finance and trading are more likely to use the bonus to scalp some profit rather than hope for the once in a year hit. The more professional bettor the more they are going to do this. The more they are doing it for recreation the more they will take the longshot.
link to original post



100% disagree. Someone trained in finance should easily see how much EV is wasted using a bonus on a favorite or 50/50.
link to original post



Until they take Risk Management 101. What you describe is how venture capital works. It is how the sharks think. They know 90% of those deals will at best break even, so the rest have to be grand slams. So when Lori Grenier finally comes to her senses and leaves her husband for me I will advise her to only use a very small part of her capital in that way.

But when you are the VP of Finance you do not take huge risks. You play small ball. Lower risk, higher probability of steady return.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
unJon
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November 28th, 2023 at 5:38:03 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: unJon

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Mental



It is crime to waste a percentage boost on a heavy favorite. It is minor crime to waste it on a 50/50 bet. I always use my 50% profit boosts on longshots.



First thing is you usually cannot use a bonus bet on a heavy favorite. Most places I see cut you off around --300 or so. "Heavy favorite" can mean different things to different people, though.

Second part goes back to your background. People who have been trained in finance and trading are more likely to use the bonus to scalp some profit rather than hope for the once in a year hit. The more professional bettor the more they are going to do this. The more they are doing it for recreation the more they will take the longshot.
link to original post



100% disagree. Someone trained in finance should easily see how much EV is wasted using a bonus on a favorite or 50/50.
link to original post



Until they take Risk Management 101. What you describe is how venture capital works. It is how the sharks think. They know 90% of those deals will at best break even, so the rest have to be grand slams. So when Lori Grenier finally comes to her senses and leaves her husband for me I will advise her to only use a very small part of her capital in that way.

But when you are the VP of Finance you do not take huge risks. You play small ball. Lower risk, higher probability of steady return.
link to original post



Seems to me the people posting about it here are getting free bets weekly. Why lose a ton of EV so you can win the promo bet every other week vs every 5th week or so.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mental
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November 28th, 2023 at 5:51:44 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: unJon

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Mental



It is crime to waste a percentage boost on a heavy favorite. It is minor crime to waste it on a 50/50 bet. I always use my 50% profit boosts on longshots.



First thing is you usually cannot use a bonus bet on a heavy favorite. Most places I see cut you off around --300 or so. "Heavy favorite" can mean different things to different people, though.

Second part goes back to your background. People who have been trained in finance and trading are more likely to use the bonus to scalp some profit rather than hope for the once in a year hit. The more professional bettor the more they are going to do this. The more they are doing it for recreation the more they will take the longshot.
link to original post



100% disagree. Someone trained in finance should easily see how much EV is wasted using a bonus on a favorite or 50/50.
link to original post



Until they take Risk Management 101. What you describe is how venture capital works. It is how the sharks think. They know 90% of those deals will at best break even, so the rest have to be grand slams. So when Lori Grenier finally comes to her senses and leaves her husband for me I will advise her to only use a very small part of her capital in that way.

But when you are the VP of Finance you do not take huge risks. You play small ball. Lower risk, higher probability of steady return.
link to original post

So you think it is proper risk management to take a bunch of chalky bets at a tiny edge versus the same number of bets at a substantial edge? If the bet is limited to $100 or some other modest bet, then your Kelly bankroll would have to be a very small number of bets before risk management switches you over to betting on the favorite. Since you can bet less than the maximum amount, I am pretty sure optimum risk management would tell you to bet less on a longshot if your bankroll is small rather than take the favorite.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
AZDuffman
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November 28th, 2023 at 6:33:23 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

So you think it is proper risk management to take a bunch of chalky bets at a tiny edge versus the same number of bets at a substantial edge?



Yes, that is what I have been trying to explain. Because the "substantial edge" is in practice not what it is on paper. Sure, you can keep betting on the worst team in the NFL week after week. And that team could have been the Browns who won 1 game in 2 years.

The shorter the time the less +EV matters. Yet the more small wins matter.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mental
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November 28th, 2023 at 6:47:22 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Mental

So you think it is proper risk management to take a bunch of chalky bets at a tiny edge versus the same number of bets at a substantial edge?



Yes, that is what I have been trying to explain. Because the "substantial edge" is in practice not what it is on paper. Sure, you can keep betting on the worst team in the NFL week after week. And that team could have been the Browns who won 1 game in 2 years.

The shorter the time the less +EV matters. Yet the more small wins matter.
link to original post

Unless I get a terminal diagnosis sometime soon, I assume I have plenty of time. If have an essentially infinite bankroll in terms of $100 max promo boosted bets.

Give me a bankroll scenario in terms of numbers of bet units where you think it is better risk management to bet a 50% boost at less than +200 and show the math.
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odiousgambit
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:01:38 AM permalink
I've vowed to quit talking about this, but I'll say it again once

you want to take the +200 bet vs a -200 bet [or whatever] on the offers, even though it's harder to win the former

why?

if you place a bet on roulette and the offer is to be paid double normal paytable, you take that of course. You're looking at a bet that was -EV... now it's still hard to win but it is +EV now.

but if you get paid the normal paytable amount, but only have to bet half of what you usually do, you might hesitate but you shouldn't ... actually it's the *same thing*. Or, maybe you get a second chance on the bet... overall, it's still betting less than normal to get paid the normal paytable amount. That makes it +EV

why not bet on the favorites? the effect of getting paid less than even versus getting paid more than even has a huge effect on EV, check it out, the math is there.

why not bet on the favorite when it's only one bet? OK, but these sites repeat these offers, often daily. That's exactly what you want.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:01:59 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Mental



It is crime to waste a percentage boost on a heavy favorite. It is minor crime to waste it on a 50/50 bet. I always use my 50% profit boosts on longshots.



First thing is you usually cannot use a bonus bet on a heavy favorite. Most places I see cut you off around --300 or so. "Heavy favorite" can mean different things to different people, though.

Second part goes back to your background. People who have been trained in finance and trading are more likely to use the bonus to scalp some profit rather than hope for the once in a year hit. The more professional bettor the more they are going to do this. The more they are doing it for recreation the more they will take the longshot.
link to original post



You have it exactly wrong!!!!

The offers tend to be WAY BETTER to be used in underdogs/long shots. I think Mental described why a few posts back. NOT letting you use a profit boost on a heavy favorite is amongst the stupidest decision a online Sportsbook can make….
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:15:40 AM permalink
AZ’s lack of understanding this simple concept is hurting my brain!

Let’s say the offer is 50% profit boost. Max bet $100.

Doofus A uses it on -1000 favorite. So Doofus A wins 9 out of 10 times. Wins $15 9 times, loses $100 once. Wins $35 per ten bets. So on average wins $3.50. EV is +$3.50

Sage B uses it on a +400 underdog. Sage B wins 2 times out of 10. Wins $600 twice and loses $100 8 times. So wins $400 every ten bets. So on average wins $40. EV is +$40

$40 is MORE THAN TEN TIMES $3.50. It’s not even close!!!

(Both examples are slightly over the real EV’s, as the ‘juice’ is not figured in, but it is enough to realize that THIS IS NOT A CLOSE DECISION!)
SOOPOO
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:22:06 AM permalink
BetRivers has promo today. Bet on Champions League player to score first and get a free bet if he doesn’t score first but scores anytime during the game. But when you click on the T’s and C’s it says bet on first goal scorer and get an automatic profit boost! I bet it (Haaland) and immediately got the profit boost. Don’t they have someone checking stuff like this?
AZDuffman
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:45:03 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

AZ’s lack of understanding this simple concept is hurting my brain!

Let’s say the offer is 50% profit boost. Max bet $100.

Doofus A uses it on -1000 favorite. So Doofus A wins 9 out of 10 times. Wins $15 9 times, loses $100 once. Wins $35 per ten bets. So on average wins $3.50. EV is +$3.50

Sage B uses it on a +400 underdog. Sage B wins 2 times out of 10. Wins $600 twice and loses $100 8 times. So wins $400 every ten bets. So on average wins $40. EV is +$40

$40 is MORE THAN TEN TIMES $3.50. It’s not even close!!!

(Both examples are slightly over the real EV’s, as the ‘juice’ is not figured in, but it is enough to realize that THIS IS NOT A CLOSE DECISION!)
link to original post



I understand your math completely. What you are not getting is my statement about the person trained in risk management and finance is not going to want the variance of taking the heavy dog winning, And this varies by sport.

In boxing the heavy dog rarely makes the upset.
In MLB the dog will usually win 1 of 3 in the series, especially at home.
In college football some heavy dog usually wins once each weekend, the rest go down.
In the NFL dogs routinely upset things, but it is a hard pick.

Your example ignores the possibility of compounding. Lets say I take the chalk and you take the underdog. Five weeks in a row I win $10 and you win zip. I can take my $50 and put it on another chalk. Eventually I have two bets with house money going whereas you are still waiting for the upset.

I maintain my position that people who know finance and risk management are going to take the chalk. People who came up in gambling or those with a what-the-heck attitude will take the dog.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:58:37 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

AZ’s lack of understanding this simple concept is hurting my brain!

Let’s say the offer is 50% profit boost. Max bet $100.

Doofus A uses it on -1000 favorite. So Doofus A wins 9 out of 10 times. Wins $15 9 times, loses $100 once. Wins $35 per ten bets. So on average wins $3.50. EV is +$3.50

Sage B uses it on a +400 underdog. Sage B wins 2 times out of 10. Wins $600 twice and loses $100 8 times. So wins $400 every ten bets. So on average wins $40. EV is +$40

$40 is MORE THAN TEN TIMES $3.50. It’s not even close!!!

(Both examples are slightly over the real EV’s, as the ‘juice’ is not figured in, but it is enough to realize that THIS IS NOT A CLOSE DECISION!)
link to original post



I understand your math completely. What you are not getting is my statement about the person trained in risk management and finance is not going to want the variance of taking the heavy dog winning, And this varies by sport.

In boxing the heavy dog rarely makes the upset.
In MLB the dog will usually win 1 of 3 in the series, especially at home.
In college football some heavy dog usually wins once each weekend, the rest go down.
In the NFL dogs routinely upset things, but it is a hard pick.

Your example ignores the possibility of compounding. Lets say I take the chalk and you take the underdog. Five weeks in a row I win $10 and you win zip. I can take my $50 and put it on another chalk. Eventually I have two bets with house money going whereas you are still waiting for the upset.

I maintain my position that people who know finance and risk management are going to take the chalk. People who came up in gambling or those with a what-the-heck attitude will take the dog.
link to original post



I stand by my comment. I now realize that you just are too obstinate to understand that any SMART gambler would NEVER take a huge chalk favorite with a profit boost. Unless limited to do so. I cashed two 4 leg parlay profit boosts yesterday. Not that you care….!

And any ‘people who know finance’ who recommend doing what you say should be FIRED ON THE SPOT.

Edit…. I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT HAVE A ‘WHAT THE HECK’ attitude! I have a ‘I’m going to continue to make money’ attitude!’ Geezzzz. Your idea is to take a quick safe $1. Mine is to take $$$ easily over days/weeks/months. I certainly can lose on a given day, even week, but no way over a year. (I do think I have one losing month over the last two years).

Come on, AZ! Think!!!
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November 28th, 2023 at 8:34:30 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

AZ’s lack of understanding this simple concept is hurting my brain!

Let’s say the offer is 50% profit boost. Max bet $100.

Doofus A uses it on -1000 favorite. So Doofus A wins 9 out of 10 times. Wins $15 9 times, loses $100 once. Wins $35 per ten bets. So on average wins $3.50. EV is +$3.50

Sage B uses it on a +400 underdog. Sage B wins 2 times out of 10. Wins $600 twice and loses $100 8 times. So wins $400 every ten bets. So on average wins $40. EV is +$40

$40 is MORE THAN TEN TIMES $3.50. It’s not even close!!!

(Both examples are slightly over the real EV’s, as the ‘juice’ is not figured in, but it is enough to realize that THIS IS NOT A CLOSE DECISION!)
link to original post



I understand your math completely. What you are not getting is my statement about the person trained in risk management and finance is not going to want the variance of taking the heavy dog winning, And this varies by sport.

In boxing the heavy dog rarely makes the upset.
In MLB the dog will usually win 1 of 3 in the series, especially at home.
In college football some heavy dog usually wins once each weekend, the rest go down.
In the NFL dogs routinely upset things, but it is a hard pick.

Your example ignores the possibility of compounding. Lets say I take the chalk and you take the underdog. Five weeks in a row I win $10 and you win zip. I can take my $50 and put it on another chalk. Eventually I have two bets with house money going whereas you are still waiting for the upset.

I maintain my position that people who know finance and risk management are going to take the chalk. People who came up in gambling or those with a what-the-heck attitude will take the dog.
link to original post

People who know finance will use a spreadsheet to calculate value at risk and make the mathematically correct decision based on the parameters of the risk and the depth of their balance sheet. They spreadsheet will always tell them that you are wrong with your seat of the pants answer. And the spreadsheet will take compounding in to account.

There is a difference between someone afraid to take a tiny risk and the risk being too large for their bankroll. Again, present a scenario and show your calculations if you think you have a case. People who understand underwriting would do this, not just say 'Ooh, I am afraid to take a teensy bit of risk'.
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DRich
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:13:48 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman



I understand your math completely. What you are not getting is my statement about the person trained in risk management and finance is not going to want the variance of taking the heavy dog winning, And this varies by sport.



What do you consider a heavy dog? If you are talking about Powerball odds I would agree that most people would never hit one. If you are talking about 50-1 underdogs you can expect to hit one every 50 bets. If you are making 50 boosted EV bets you should definitely be playing the 50-1 underdog.
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SOOPOO
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:37:48 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: AZDuffman



I understand your math completely. What you are not getting is my statement about the person trained in risk management and finance is not going to want the variance of taking the heavy dog winning, And this varies by sport.



What do you consider a heavy dog? If you are talking about Powerball odds I would agree that most people would never hit one. If you are talking about 50-1 underdogs you can expect to hit one every 50 bets. If you are making 50 boosted EV bets you should definitely be playing the 50-1 underdog.
link to original post




Edit. Most recent free bet ($5) on DraftKings going on now.
Shaktar Donetsk win. And under 3.5 goals. Parlayed with Athletic Madrid to win. About to win $37. So it was +740.


As a concept of course you are correct. But I think you are going too high. Remember, if you are being offered 50-1 the event will not win 2% of the time. Maybe 1%. That’s because the casino adds that juice. I’m not sure where the exact ‘sweet spot’ is, but I’m pretty sure it’s shorter odds than 50-1. I’ve been liking between 6-1 and 10-1.
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:43:51 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Come on, AZ! Think!!!
link to original post



Lets try this a different way.

Do you bet mostly heavy dogs with your regular bankroll? If not why not?

Freeplay should be played exactly the same as your regular bankroll. It being a free bet should not matter, the EV is the same.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:46:36 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



As a concept of course you are correct. But I think you are going too high. Remember, if you are being offered 50-1 the event will not win 2% of the time. Maybe 1%. That’s because the casino adds that juice. I’m not sure where the exact ‘sweet spot’ is, but I’m pretty sure it’s shorter odds than 50-1. I’ve been liking between 6-1 and 10-1.



Of course, I am just trying to simplify it for certain people.
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odiousgambit
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:53:18 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



Come on, AZ! Think!!!
link to original post



Lets try this a different way.

Do you bet mostly heavy dogs with your regular bankroll?

no . not how I define heavy, which for me is greater than +400 or so
Quote:

If not why not?

the possible losing streaks are too long
*Not asked*: do you bet mostly underdogs? answer: yes, because I concentrate on offers like 'no sweat'

Quote:

Freeplay should be played exactly the same as your regular bankroll. It being a free bet should not matter, the EV is the same.
link to original post

Just not true... you are exhibiting "invincible ignorance"
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:55:24 PM permalink
How about some discussion on Friday's game between Oregon and Washington. Oregon is 11-1 this year and ranked #5 in the country with their only loss to Washington who is 12-0 and ranked #4. They play on a neutral field in Las Vegas on Friday and I was anticipating Oregon to be a small favorite over undefeated Washington. I probably would have made the line Oregon -2.5. Some people think that is crazy because Washington is ranked higher, is undefeated, and has already beat Oregon.

I was both right and wrong. Oregon is the favorite but the oddsmakers made it Oregon -9.5. I am working out of town this week so I dont have a lot of time to investigate, but obviously I missed something.

By the way, the winner of this game may also earn their QB a Heisman trophy, They are two of the favorites.
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Mental
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November 28th, 2023 at 2:01:18 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



Come on, AZ! Think!!!
link to original post



Lets try this a different way.

Do you bet mostly heavy dogs with your regular bankroll? If not why not?

Freeplay should be played exactly the same as your regular bankroll. It being a free bet should not matter, the EV is the same.
link to original post

Using free play to place a bet is the same as using regular bankroll credits.

Free bets are a totally different animal, at least they are at all of the books that I play at. When you place a $100 free bet, you don't put up any money for the stake and you don't get the stake back if you win. This changes the EV math in a very dramatic fashion. Since you can't win or lose the stake, it doesn't factor into the EV. You should play longshots because you shouldn't worry about losing the stake. You only care about winning a big payoff.

Place a $100 free bet on a heavy favorite and you might come out with $10 about 90% of the time. Isn't it clearly better to win $91 half the time betting on a -110 coin flip? Go to +300 and do the math yourself.

Don't use free bets at short odds. There is little similarity in the math of ordinary bets and free bets.
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November 28th, 2023 at 2:11:12 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



Come on, AZ! Think!!!
link to original post



Lets try this a different way.

Do you bet mostly heavy dogs with your regular bankroll? If not why not?

Freeplay should be played exactly the same as your regular bankroll. It being a free bet should not matter, the EV is the same.
link to original post

. Please just admit that you cannot understand the simple concept that a ‘free bet’ is different than betting with real money!

If I have a $10 free bet and bet on a 100-1 favorite and win, I end up with 10 cents. You do not get to keep the $10 from the free bet, nor can you use it again. You win a freaking DIME!
If I bet that free bet on a +400 underdog,1 out of 5 times I end up with $40. If you live on a planet where you’d rather win a dime 9 out of 10 times than winning $40 2 out of 10 times I don’t want to visit that planet.

As my wife says to me if she perceives I’m missing something simple…. ‘You’re killing me, Smalls!”
AZDuffman
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November 28th, 2023 at 3:42:33 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



Come on, AZ! Think!!!
link to original post



Lets try this a different way.

Do you bet mostly heavy dogs with your regular bankroll? If not why not?

Freeplay should be played exactly the same as your regular bankroll. It being a free bet should not matter, the EV is the same.
link to original post

. Please just admit that you cannot understand the simple concept that a ‘free bet’ is different than betting with real money!

If I have a $10 free bet and bet on a 100-1 favorite and win, I end up with 10 cents. You do not get to keep the $10 from the free bet, nor can you use it again. You win a freaking DIME!
If I bet that free bet on a +400 underdog,1 out of 5 times I end up with $40. If you live on a planet where you’d rather win a dime 9 out of 10 times than winning $40 2 out of 10 times I don’t want to visit that planet.

As my wife says to me if she perceives I’m missing something simple…. ‘You’re killing me, Smalls!”
link to original post



Your example reminds me of examples politicians use.

The better example is I use the free bet on a -400 bet not a -1000 bet. The. I take the $2.50 I won and next free bet lay it on the -400 while putting the free bet on the chalk. Then do it again and again. Hold some of the winnings back.

I
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SOOPOO
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November 28th, 2023 at 3:52:58 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



Come on, AZ! Think!!!
link to original post



Lets try this a different way.

Do you bet mostly heavy dogs with your regular bankroll? If not why not?

Freeplay should be played exactly the same as your regular bankroll. It being a free bet should not matter, the EV is the same.
link to original post

. Please just admit that you cannot understand the simple concept that a ‘free bet’ is different than betting with real money!

If I have a $10 free bet and bet on a 100-1 favorite and win, I end up with 10 cents. You do not get to keep the $10 from the free bet, nor can you use it again. You win a freaking DIME!
If I bet that free bet on a +400 underdog,1 out of 5 times I end up with $40. If you live on a planet where you’d rather win a dime 9 out of 10 times than winning $40 2 out of 10 times I don’t want to visit that planet.

As my wife says to me if she perceives I’m missing something simple…. ‘You’re killing me, Smalls!”
link to original post



Your example reminds me of examples politicians use.

The better example is I use the free bet on a -400 bet not a -1000 bet. The. I take the $2.50 I won and next free bet lay it on the -400 while putting the free bet on the chalk. Then do it again and again. Hold some of the winnings back.

I
link to original post



What you are saying here is you can’t understand my simple presentation. Got it. I’ll give up trying to explain it to you.

The more I think about AZ’s decision making process, I should actually be happy about it. I guess there are enough bettors that use the free bets so abjectly foolishly that when Axel/Mental/me/Wizard use them wisely they don’t care as much.

Thanks, AZ!
AZDuffman
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November 28th, 2023 at 4:01:41 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO



Come on, AZ! Think!!!
link to original post



Lets try this a different way.

Do you bet mostly heavy dogs with your regular bankroll? If not why not?

Freeplay should be played exactly the same as your regular bankroll. It being a free bet should not matter, the EV is the same.
link to original post

. Please just admit that you cannot understand the simple concept that a ‘free bet’ is different than betting with real money!

If I have a $10 free bet and bet on a 100-1 favorite and win, I end up with 10 cents. You do not get to keep the $10 from the free bet, nor can you use it again. You win a freaking DIME!
If I bet that free bet on a +400 underdog,1 out of 5 times I end up with $40. If you live on a planet where you’d rather win a dime 9 out of 10 times than winning $40 2 out of 10 times I don’t want to visit that planet.

As my wife says to me if she perceives I’m missing something simple…. ‘You’re killing me, Smalls!”
link to original post



Your example reminds me of examples politicians use.

The better example is I use the free bet on a -400 bet not a -1000 bet. The. I take the $2.50 I won and next free bet lay it on the -400 while putting the free bet on the chalk. Then do it again and again. Hold some of the winnings back.

I
link to original post



What you are saying here is you can’t understand my simple presentation. Got it. I’ll give up trying to explain it to you.

The more I think about AZ’s decision making process, I should actually be happy about it. I guess there are enough bettors that use the free bets so abjectly foolishly that when Axel/Mental/me/Wizard use them wisely they don’t care as much.

Thanks, AZ!
link to original post




The simple presentation with an unrealistic example?

Have fun playing the long shot. I’ll keep taking the scalps snd use them for better results the next bet.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
gordonm888
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November 28th, 2023 at 4:03:28 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

How about some discussion on Friday's game between Oregon and Washington. Oregon is 11-1 this year and ranked #5 in the country with their only loss to Washington who is 12-0 and ranked #4. They play on a neutral field in Las Vegas on Friday and I was anticipating Oregon to be a small favorite over undefeated Washington. I probably would have made the line Oregon -2.5. Some people think that is crazy because Washington is ranked higher, is undefeated, and has already beat Oregon.

I was both right and wrong. Oregon is the favorite but the oddsmakers made it Oregon -9.5. I am working out of town this week so I dont have a lot of time to investigate, but obviously I missed something.

By the way, the winner of this game may also earn their QB a Heisman trophy, They are two of the favorites.
link to original post



The Moneyline is Oregon -380, Washington +300! Wow, that is stunning. The spread opened at Ore -8.5 and quickly went to -9.5, which is a significant move through a key number. The sharps were pounding Oregon ATS.

Prevailing yakkety-yak is that Washington has not looked impressive in its wins, and that Oregon has looked terrific. Oregon's earlier loss (by a small margin) to Washington is usually described as "one of those things that happen in College Football."

In ESPN contest, only 62% of fans are picking Oregon. Typically participants in that contest (>1M) are less knowledgeable and more influenced by ranking and W-L record than the books and the sharps, even so they are favoring Oregon. However, 71% are picking Washington +9.5 vs 29% picking Oregon-9.5.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Nov 28, 2023
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AxelWolf
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November 28th, 2023 at 6:33:55 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Do any of your boots/promotions come with wagering requirements?

When using Deposit bonuses or rebates you should probably be betting long shots and the highest possible to maximize EV. Losing everything on one bet significantly reduces the Wagering Requirements. I think AZD would agree.

I could make an agreement for someone who can consistently make +EV bets but they don't have the bankroll to sustain large or risky bets.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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November 29th, 2023 at 7:20:29 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: SOOPOO

Do any of your boots/promotions come with wagering requirements?



The initial ‘deposit matches’ came with a simple 1x requirement. It was $6.3k required so I made 63 $100 bets at -110. I did very well. Don’t remember exactly but won like 35! So deposited $3k. Got $3k match. And bonus $300. Turned it into around $7k fully withdrawable. That was Caesars.

I’ve had a few deposit matches that required 5x play through. But this is insignificant as there have been enough +EV plays that I never worried about the playthrough. These were limited to smaller amounts, ranging from $100 to $250.

The boosts do not come with wagering requirements, rather, they have wagering limits. I just entered a dozen or so boosts on BetRivers. All were limited to $25 except I had one that was $50. I named college BBall teams and had wifey pick the school she liked and parlayed either 2 or 3 games. All pointspread. I then had her pick some soccer teams for free bets. Just parlaying two underdogs got me into the +1200 range.
Jimmy2Times
Jimmy2Times
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November 29th, 2023 at 11:37:43 AM permalink
Going with Ryan Garcia by stoppage over Oscar Duarte at -141 Dec 2.
I 'm gonna go get the papers, get the papers.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:36:24 PM permalink
Quote: Jimmy2Times

Going with Ryan Garcia by stoppage over Oscar Duarte at -141 Dec 2.
link to original post

. I just joined you. Looks like BetRivers?

It’s 12 rounds which is a plus for stoppage.
Apparently Duarte has fought inferior competition which is a plus
Me agreeing with you is a minus!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 29th, 2023 at 12:57:03 PM permalink
So had a promo offer for 4 leg parlay, place bet and if one leg loses get back a free bet. I made the 4 picks, clicked to use reward……. And it just used a free bet (which I did nothing to earn). Essentially just got a $20 freebet. These types of mistakes are not as uncommon as they should be!
Lakers/Magic-5/Suns/Nuggets.
Wife’s soccer long shot lost…. She had Sevilla over PSV. They were up 2-0 when Sevilla player got Red Card and…. Goal. Goal. Goal. They lose 3-2.
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