SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 24th, 2022 at 9:14:41 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

$600 in bonus bets on the Giants @ +400

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Other:
I don't know why I am still getting these good bonus bet offers, but they seem to come when I win.
link to original post



I must be a guppy. Iím getting around $5 a day from MGM by having my stick figure shoot past goalie Tim Howard. Iíve hit my last TWELVE college bball picks. They canít be shorter than -300, so probably average -220 or so. They work great in parlays when you get a bonus for each leg added. One was a 7 legger, the other 5.
DK and MGM giving plus odds on US to not get shutout tomorrow. The other 3 giving plus odds on the US to get shutout tomorrow. It puts food on the table.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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November 25th, 2022 at 10:56:38 AM permalink
I'm not sure how to find the best US odds but I was intrigued by any differences between the UK and US.

I could see (with 5 mins to kick off via oddschecker) the best UK odds were
Eng 1/2
US 15/2
Draw 7/2

Whereas US (I can't find the best odds but found this)
Eng 8/15 (-188)
US 11/2 (+550)
Draw 10/3 (+333)

So it does look as if they're cutting the odds for the country you're in!!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 25th, 2022 at 1:38:26 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I'm not sure how to find the best US odds but I was intrigued by any differences between the UK and US.

I could see (with 5 mins to kick off via oddschecker) the best UK odds were
Eng 1/2
US 15/2
Draw 7/2

Whereas US (I can't find the best odds but found this)
Eng 8/15 (-188)
US 11/2 (+550)
Draw 10/3 (+333)

So it does look as if they're cutting the odds for the country you're in!!
link to original post



Not sure where you were looking. I had +675 on US right before kickoff. I had so many +EV offers the only way I could not make money was a nil nil drawÖÖ.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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November 25th, 2022 at 2:08:06 PM permalink
Sorry - yes bookies love a draw since fewer people make that bet. I tried to google Las Vegas best prices but I didn't find an "oddschecker" for Las Vegas, hence probably the price I saw was just one bookie. Thanks for the +675 info as it also shows they narrowed the odds (from +750 one could get in the UK).
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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November 25th, 2022 at 11:21:58 PM permalink
I haven't made sports bets in a long time, but I couldn't believe that my own Oregon men's basketball team was only +4 against #20 Connecticut on Thursday.

Oregon had only two healthy guards, and their 3-point shooting has been atrocious. UConn was undefeated and looking good in the paint. The game was in Portland, so though the Ducks had the fans on their side, they didn't have true home court advantage. I kept thinking "is there something I'm missing about this matchup?!" I could see Oregon losing by 10.

So I put down $105 (-105) on UConn and easily won 100 bucks when the Ducks lost by 24!
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
smoothgrh
November 26th, 2022 at 3:12:02 AM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

I haven't made sports bets in a long time, but I couldn't believe that my own Oregon men's basketball team was only +4 against #20 Connecticut on Thursday.

Oregon had only two healthy guards, and their 3-point shooting has been atrocious. UConn was undefeated and looking good in the paint. The game was in Portland, so though the Ducks had the fans on their side, they didn't have true home court advantage. I kept thinking "is there something I'm missing about this matchup?!" I could see Oregon losing by 10.

So I put down $105 (-105) on UConn and easily won 100 bucks when the Ducks lost by 24!
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That is how you do it. Know more about a less followed school than the bookie does.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 26th, 2022 at 1:45:07 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Sorry - yes bookies love a draw since fewer people make that bet. (snip)
link to original post


Thanks for posting this, I had "forgotten about the value of betting on the draw" (I used to bet a lot on Soccer for the Draw###, and NHL going to OT).

###: Edit about 1630, Pac Time.

Anyway, I had the following bonus bets on the World Cup (all for the Draw):

Wales v England $500 @ $4.6
Brazil v Switzerland $700 @ $4.4
Japan v Costa Rica $400 @ $4.4
Netherlands v Qatar $500 @ $8***

***: If I could have all the above bonuses on one, it would be this one (not just because it was the biggest odds, but also because Pinnacle had the Draw @ ~$7.18^^^, at the time I had the bet).

^^^: I think the market was about 103%, so if I was just going by "Pinnacles' prices", then the fair odds for the draw should have been about $7.40.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 26, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 26th, 2022 at 2:04:02 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

$600 in bonus bets on the Giants @ +400

----
Other:
I don't know why I am still getting these good bonus bet offers, but they seem to come when I win.
link to original post



I must be a guppy. Iím getting around $5 a day from MGM by having my stick figure shoot past goalie Tim Howard. Iíve hit my last TWELVE college bball picks. They canít be shorter than -300, so probably average -220 or so. They work great in parlays when you get a bonus for each leg added. One was a 7 legger, the other 5.
DK and MGM giving plus odds on US to not get shutout tomorrow. The other 3 giving plus odds on the US to get shutout tomorrow. It puts food on the table.
link to original post


I don't know exactly how they are working it out, but I seem to be getting a bit less than "4.5% x total return of a winning bet^^^ (every two winning bets) ".

^^^: Recently I had $10,000 on Fresno State Bulldogs @ $1.16, and got $500 in bonus bets (and I had a similar bet that won, before that game).

Also, I am "testing my theory out*** ", by having $11,000 on the Chiefs @ $1.08, and $10,000 on the Dolphins @ $1.125.

***: If these bets win, and if I get a $500 bonus, then I think I have a pretty good idea of what my average bonus is (it will probably be around 4.5% per "two winning bets", so 2.25% per "winning bet").
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 118
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
November 26th, 2022 at 7:36:56 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

$600 in bonus bets on the Giants @ +400

----
Other:
I don't know why I am still getting these good bonus bet offers, but they seem to come when I win.
link to original post



I must be a guppy. Iím getting around $5 a day from MGM by having my stick figure shoot past goalie Tim Howard. Iíve hit my last TWELVE college bball picks. They canít be shorter than -300, so probably average -220 or so. They work great in parlays when you get a bonus for each leg added. One was a 7 legger, the other 5.
DK and MGM giving plus odds on US to not get shutout tomorrow. The other 3 giving plus odds on the US to get shutout tomorrow. It puts food on the table.
link to original post


I don't know exactly how they are working it out, but I seem to be getting a bit less than "4.5% x total return of a winning bet^^^ (every two winning bets) ".

^^^: Recently I had $10,000 on Fresno State Bulldogs @ $1.16, and got $500 in bonus bets (and I had a similar bet that won, before that game).

Also, I am "testing my theory out*** ", by having $11,000 on the Chiefs @ $1.08, and $10,000 on the Dolphins @ $1.125.

***: If these bets win, and if I get a $500 bonus, then I think I have a pretty good idea of what my average bonus is (it will probably be around 4.5% per "two winning bets", so 2.25% per "winning bet").
link to original post



You must have either a lot of faith in what you are doing or a LOT of money to risk if you are betting $21k to Ďtest my theory outí!í

Whenever I worry if the books will somehow care about my $50 bet with a slight advantage Iíll remember your bets! I had Ďalternative lineí boost available for an NBA game. Betting on the other side on a different book gave me either $6 or $2 win. Total bet was over $200. Iím guessing they arenít worryingÖ.
(I won $6).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 27th, 2022 at 9:48:31 PM permalink
Put some "feeler bets" out for next week, mainly because I think there is a "good chance the line will move in my favor" (see below):

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: $500 on the Bengals +3.0 @ $1.85
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants: $500 on the Commanders -1.5 @ $1.90

Note: I haven't done any work on these games, and the bets are just based on the public lines available with other 'books that I "trust to have it correct (more often than not) ".

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