odiousgambit
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November 27th, 2023 at 3:13:40 AM permalink
Warning: I've got a hunch, and that's all it is! Proceed at your own risk.

Gold has passed $2000 in price for the 4th time now. This seems to be a psychological barrier type price, however the 'behavior' till now has been to retreat from the price [which serves as another warning]. It does then get back eventually, note from the chart that this is with increasing frequency.

I will sell some of what I hold in GDX [gold miners, not gold per se], but not much, as I am going to bet that at this point there is going to be an upward run in price ... gold bugs I think are going to notice that at least a return to the current price is a very safe bet, encouraging speculation. I'll have to decide what my sell price will be, but for the most part I am not selling now

Again, on purely a hunch, I'd say definitely buy if the price goes below $2000 again, I certainly will. I apologize in advance if it doesn't happen, but I have to think the 'increasing frequency' of return to the price, at the very least, is a pretty safe bet.

If you own no gold assets at all, you might even consider buying now, if you too have a hunch this time there could be a run upwards. I own too much already to do that, but 'just saying'. This is for risk takers and any reasonable person would declare it to be poor 'investment' strategy. Serves as 3rd warning LOL


the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Wizard
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November 27th, 2023 at 4:23:28 AM permalink
I personally view the precious metals as bad investments that you should still have some of your portfolio in, mainly in the interest of diversity. However, they tend to have a nice run once every 10-20 years and I might be singing their praises after they have the next one, which I've been waiting a while for.

Be advised one can easily make bullion transactions under $10,000 anonymously.
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vegas
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November 27th, 2023 at 5:15:14 AM permalink
I hold a Canadian gold etf called CGXF.TO that pays a huge 9.50 dividend. It has went nowhere so just collecting dividends. If gold ever goes on a run I would probably sell at that time.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
Dieter
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November 27th, 2023 at 6:04:50 AM permalink
I'm curious how people are buying gold.
Bullion to keep yourself? (I picture swimming, a la Scrooge McDuck)
An allocation in someone else's vault?
ETF's that track gold?
... other creative schemes?
May the cards fall in your favor.
Mental
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November 27th, 2023 at 6:07:02 AM permalink
It is probably -EV to take advice from random people on social groups, especially gamblers.

I have never been long gold or silver. I am very much overweight in precious metal miners including juniors with several million $US invested. PM producers were was a painful place to be invested from April to October this year, and explorers fared even worse. I have recovered somewhat as gold prices recovered since early October.

The margins for PM producers was hurt more than I expected from labor costs and high fuel prices. I expect tailwinds from lower oil prices in the current quarter. Long term, electrification of more mining equipment and electricity from new solar projects will help with energy costs.

Gold doesn't pay a dividend -- some miners are currently paying very significant dividends. Some producers are paying dividends out of depleting mines. Avoid them. I prefer junior producers with a history of finding more gold on their own permitted claims. The majors need to constantly acquire juniors to make up for depleting millions of ounces of reserves per year. Some of these acquisitions can be major fails. AEM has done the best in this regard.

I like IAUX, KRRGF, KNTNF, and DNGDF.
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OnceDear
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November 27th, 2023 at 6:12:55 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Be advised one can easily make bullion transactions under $10,000 anonymously.
link to original post


Here in The UK, we can't even fart without completing Know Your Customer documentation. Even bitcoin transactions over 2k per year get reported by the exchanges to 'the authorities'
Cash is no longer king.
It's bad enough being burdened with a few thousand in cash, let alone bullion. Try to sell 2k of bullion here.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Joeman
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November 27th, 2023 at 6:45:17 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

I'm curious how people are buying gold.
Bullion to keep yourself? (I picture swimming, a la Scrooge McDuck)
An allocation in someone else's vault?
ETF's that track gold?
... other creative schemes?
link to original post

When I have bought bullion in the past, I had it sent to me personally, then stored it in a secure location that I could easily access. Never had enough to actually swim in! ;)

I have always had an interest in coins, and part of me likes to physically hold and examine the coins/rounds/bars. Plus it's nice knowing that I have it in case the s#!+ does actually hit the fan (as in the USD collapsing).
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Mental
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November 27th, 2023 at 7:22:31 AM permalink
I follow the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report. Commercial traders are not particularly bearish right now, nor are speculators particularly bullish. Gold tends to peak when both of these contradictory sentiments are apparent in the COT charts. I am slightly bullish on gold, but I won't take a direct position in gold. I am bullish on the PM producers and have some very large equity positions.
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November 27th, 2023 at 9:04:16 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

It's bad enough being burdened with a few thousand in cash, let alone bullion. Try to sell 2k of bullion here.
link to original post



Perhaps that explains why Goldfinger had to mold it into a Rolls Royce and transport it Switzerland to sell there, if I remember the movie correctly.
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Dieter
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November 27th, 2023 at 9:30:11 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: OnceDear

It's bad enough being burdened with a few thousand in cash, let alone bullion. Try to sell 2k of bullion here.
link to original post



Perhaps that explains why Goldfinger had to mold it into a Rolls Royce and transport it Switzerland to sell there, if I remember the movie correctly.
link to original post



I think that may have been related to the Exchange Control Act (exaggerated for the benefit of a good story), due to the gold standard still being in effect.
May the cards fall in your favor.
odiousgambit
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November 27th, 2023 at 11:58:21 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

It is probably -EV to take advice from random people on social groups, especially gamblers.

I have never been long gold or silver. I am very much overweight in precious metal miners including juniors with several million $US invested. PM producers were was a painful place to be invested from April to October this year, and explorers fared even worse. I have recovered somewhat as gold prices recovered since early October.

The margins for PM producers was hurt more than I expected from labor costs and high fuel prices. I expect tailwinds from lower oil prices in the current quarter. Long term, electrification of more mining equipment and electricity from new solar projects will help with energy costs.

Gold doesn't pay a dividend -- some miners are currently paying very significant dividends. Some producers are paying dividends out of depleting mines. Avoid them. I prefer junior producers with a history of finding more gold on their own permitted claims. The majors need to constantly acquire juniors to make up for depleting millions of ounces of reserves per year. Some of these acquisitions can be major fails. AEM has done the best in this regard.

I like IAUX, KRRGF, KNTNF, and DNGDF.
link to original post



do you agree with this definition of these 'juniors'? especially the bold, which I added

Quote: from google search

What is the difference between senior and junior gold miners?

A junior gold miner is an exploration company in search of new deposits of gold. Unlike their senior counterparts, who are often listed on prestigious indices, juniors are typically not involved in the actual extraction of gold. They're the scouts, the pioneers, mapping out the terrain for others to follow.Nov 1, 2023

Mining 101: G is for gold, J is for junior. What exactly is a junior gold ...
proactiveinvestors.co.uk

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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November 27th, 2023 at 12:59:06 PM permalink
"Senior Mining Stocks (a.k.a. Seniors) are stocks of a considerably large commodity (e.g. gold) producing mining companies with an established position and relatively large market capitalization."

I am using this definition of senior which aligns with the holdings of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). There is a VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), but it contains some senior producers, IMO.

I think 1M ounces per year is a rough break point. I usually see the words producer and explorer used to distinguish what you call junior/senior.
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odiousgambit
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:52:04 AM permalink
yesterday GDX went up a bit less than 2%, while GDXJ [the junior type] went up a bit over 2%

the price of gold itself has stalled around $2014-17

one thing I've learned in the past is that things going on in India and China affect the price, it can even be used as a currency in those places still. Reuters has an article that will send you into the weeds, but the bottom line seems to be that demand itself in those places added recent momentum but this can't be expected to continue. I'd conclude there has to be a speculation spark or there won't be a fire. The tinder is always there, you know.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/soft-china-india-may-undermine-golds-rally-hopes-russell-2023-11-28/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:15:42 AM permalink
I'm not an expert on this subject whatsoever, so this should be considered as nothing more than personal opinion.

I don't have a high opinion of holding gold other than for diversification (as Wizard mentioned) or perhaps as an extremely price stable investment. Eventually, you know that gold is going to come back, at least, this has been true historically. Of course, Index Funds also tend to do the same thing.

The one time that I would actually be in favor of buying gold is when there's a significant economic downturn. If you look at the twenty year chart for gold and that for the DOW, in order:

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

What we saw both during Covid, and during The Great Recession, is that people saw gold as a safe place to park some money (compared to the markets), but as a result, people really started to buy into it as a long-term investment for gain (it's not generally good for gain) and then you had all sorts of radio/TV advertising pushing gold. The uninitiated took this bait hook, line and sinker and then people started bailing on gold as the market stabilized and started to show improvement...which is naturally going to happen anyway. It was just fortunate for them that so many people saw gold as some holy grail.

Let's look at the price of gold just prior to economic downturns and then coming out of them; when we do this, we're going to keep in mind that the whole gosh darn thing plummets, almost across the board, but then gold makes the fastest recovery as it is seen as the safe investment.

GOLD, February 2008: $972.62/oz

GOLD, November 2008: $756.24/oz

As you can see, you've temporarily gotten pummeled by way of holding gold here. 756.24/972.62 = .7775 or 77.75% (rounded) is the value relative to February 2008, so what you see is a paper loss of nearly 25%.

However, we can compare that to the DOW:

DOW, February 2008: 12,266.39

DOW, November 2008: $8,829.04

When we look at the paper losses, what we find is that the Dow, broadly speaking, is at about 71.98% (rounded) compared to its February value.

With that, not only are we down more on paper with the DOW, generally speaking, but the DOW actually had further still to fall as gold began to recover right away. Again, this is largely as a function of gold being seen as safe, so money moved from one market to another.

The DOW wouldn't recover to those February 2008 levels for three years. In the meantime, gold would be at $1,430/oz in February 2011, which now represents 147.03% (rounded) relative to the February 2008 values.

Over the next few months of 2011, gold would continue to increase in price per ounce, eventually hitting a high point of $1,837.68 per ounce...a price that wouldn't be seen again until 2020.

By the way, what happened in 2020?

The same thing happened in 2002 when the market dropped and people sought refuge in gold.

Anyway, with gold being at all time highs, I wouldn't touch it with my worst enemy's money. If I wanted to make a big bet on gold, what I would do is what for another major economic collapse and then get into gold when it shows a few weeks or a month of positive price movement. At that point, I would stay in gold until the broader market is roughly even with where it was prior to the major economic downturn, then I'd dump probably all of the gold and then try to see if there were moves to make somewhere in stocks or bonds.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Nov 28, 2023
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:40:00 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146



Anyway, with gold being at all time highs, I wouldn't touch it with my worst enemy's money.

this is sound advice. It's stupid to bet on hunches. Ignore that guy who started this thread, especially that stuff to 'gamblers only'. No, really!
Quote:

If I wanted to make a big bet on gold, what I would do is what for another major economic collapse and then get into gold when it shows a few weeks or a month of positive price movement.

Well I need to read your analysis completely, which I haven't done yet, but I have to add the warning that waiting means missing so many times.
Quote:

At that point, I would stay in gold until the broader market is roughly even with where it was prior to the major economic downturn, then I'd dump probably all of the gold and then try to see if there were moves to make somewhere in stocks or bonds.
link to original post

you can look where gold went after the last two big swoons in 2009 and 2020 and see there is a point where you profit by getting in* and a point where you have to get out. It's very easy to buy at the wrong time and maddeningly hard to buy at the right time.

* not just at the 20-20-hindsight-obvious ones with the deep V in the chart, but with gold there is a point after which recovery has started and it will still be going up.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
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November 28th, 2023 at 7:57:29 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

[ this is sound advice. It's stupid to bet on hunches. Ignore that guy who started this thread, especially that stuff to 'gamblers only'. No, really!



I'm not ignoring that and any form of investing, that lacks a sure return, is gambling. With what I suggested, my thinking is that you're taking a safer gamble with a much lower risk of substantial loss...which is the only type of gamble I like.

We're just sharing opinions, here. If someone wants to wait for a small dip and thinks it's going to be, "To the moon," from there, then they can certainly invest that way. I'm sure many successful investors have done exactly that and been right. I'm absolutely not a successful investor or trader which starts with that I don't care about having more money at all, but I'm also not inclined towards taking what I consider big risks.

Quite frankly, I hate markets that are performing well. That the Fall of Rome, albeit temporary, will come, is inevitable. If people want to try to avoid that, then that is their game and it's for them to play. Me? I think it's safer just not to trust markets that are on a long upswing.

Quote:

Well I need to read your analysis completely, which I haven't done yet, but I have to add the warning that waiting means missing so many times.



You can never bat 1.000, but it's always my preference to bat as high as possible. Even if I did actively trade/invest, missing would be the absolute last thing I care about. If I don't make a move, then I can't actually LOSE, I can only fail to gain.

Quote:

you can look where gold went after the last two big swoons in 2009 and 2020 and see there is a point where you profit by getting in* and a point where you have to get out. It's very easy to buy at the wrong time and maddeningly hard to buy at the right time.

* not just at the 20-20-hindsight-obvious ones with the deep V in the chart, but with gold there is a point after which recovery has started and it will still be going up.
link to original post



It would be pretty easy to profit; you'd just have to be willing to sell. In my analysis that you didn't fully read, it seems that a good time to sell is roughly when the DOW is where it was prior to the downturn. That hasn't been the top for gold, or even close to the peaks at those times, but being concerned about timing the peak so often results in holding long past it.

For example, if you look at historical gold prices, adjusted for inflation, then you missed the peak value if you have been holding as of prior to 1980.

Again accounting for inflation, gold has shown much less growth relative to its last high point in 2020. Any Index Fund is kicking the crap out of gold relative to gold's 2020 high. It's not even close. If you bought at the high point in 2020, which was $1971.68/ounce, you could sell now for not even a 2% gain...which isn't even close to what inflation has done.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Nov 28, 2023
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan
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November 28th, 2023 at 8:08:03 AM permalink
Whenever Silver goes below $15-16, I buy 100 ounces. It sits in a drawer until Silver gets to $21-22, and then I sell it. It's a 20-30% profit over a fairly short period. Same with gold. Buy it below $1700-1800 and sell it at 2000-2100.
Buy low, sell high. Or as Grandma used to say- buy sheep, sell deer.
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Mental
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November 28th, 2023 at 8:25:13 AM permalink
Spot gold is on a rocket ship today and at $2036/oz as I write this. GLD is up 1% and the GDX is up 3.28% and the IWM is flat. My portfolio is up 9% over the last two weeks and I feeling invincible. It may be time for me to sell a few hundred call options on the GDX or GDXJ to hedge for a pullback. I have $1.5M tied up in my six largest gold mining stocks and it might be prudent to hedge a bit.

EDIT: With the GDX up 4.28% for the day, I pulled the trigger on a big hedge. I sold 200 calls each on GDX and GDXJ. This netted $96K in cash and (I hope) effectively hedges out half my GDX-like exposure against small drops in the price of gold going out to December and January. I hope to lose money on the hedges.
Last edited by: Mental on Nov 28, 2023
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Mission146
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November 28th, 2023 at 8:28:24 AM permalink
Actually, when you adjust for inflation, gold was higher in 2011 than it is now.

I also want to add for those who would accuse me of 2020 vision, or 20/20 vision, that there are quite a few forum members who can attest to the fact that I was saying, "Buy casino stocks," in March/April of 2020. Why?

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/corona-crashes-casinos/

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/playing-the-pennies-stocks/

Of course, I could have made public posts along those lines, as well, just to be mocked and ridiculed. Some people saw tremendous gains based on my suggestions...maybe they shouldn't have listened to me about when to sell, though. I was basically screaming at them to sell after they had doubled their money within a month or two.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
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November 28th, 2023 at 10:28:08 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: odiousgambit

[ this is sound advice. It's stupid to bet on hunches. Ignore that guy who started this thread, especially that stuff to 'gamblers only'. No, really!



I'm not ignoring that and any form of investing, that lacks a sure return, is gambling.
link to original post d

you seem a little defensive so let me say I meant it when I said "no, really!" From a 'sound investment advice' perspective, listening to a guy who posts something like that, is idiotic. Really! No worries!
Quote: Mission146

... quite a few forum members who can attest to the fact that I was saying, "Buy casino stocks," in March/April of 2020...
link to original post

I remember that. Hats off to you! On the other I will point out that investing during that time period , you could have picked about anything and done great. [I have to think, didn't check it out]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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November 28th, 2023 at 10:31:13 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Spot gold is on a rocket ship today and at $2036/oz as I write this. GLD is up 1% and the GDX is up 3.28% and the IWM is flat. My portfolio is up 9% over the last two weeks and I feeling invincible. It may be time for me to sell a few hundred call options on the GDX or GDXJ to hedge for a pullback. I have $1.5M tied up in my six largest gold mining stocks and it might be prudent to hedge a bit.
link to original post

GDX up 4% at the moment, and about 7% over 5 days. I am going to sell a small amount, will sell more if this continues.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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November 28th, 2023 at 10:47:47 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Mental

Spot gold is on a rocket ship today and at $2036/oz as I write this. GLD is up 1% and the GDX is up 3.28% and the IWM is flat. My portfolio is up 9% over the last two weeks and I feeling invincible. It may be time for me to sell a few hundred call options on the GDX or GDXJ to hedge for a pullback. I have $1.5M tied up in my six largest gold mining stocks and it might be prudent to hedge a bit.
link to original post

GDX up 4% at the moment, and about 7% over 5 days. I am going to sell a small amount, will sell more if this continues.
link to original post

Are you selling gold or miners? I cannot argue with wanting to take something off the table.

I like to sell call options to reduce exposure. I edited my post to indicate that I put on a very large hedge on the GDX indices. I would hedge the individual equities except there are no options available. Even $5.6B market cap Endeavour Mining (EDVMF) has no options. My largest position Karora (KRRGF) is up $31K today. On bad days, it is painful to see how much I lose on paper. But there is no way to hedge KRRGF and I do not want to realize the massive cap gains I have in the stock. So I hedge with GDX options and I hope for the best.
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odiousgambit
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November 28th, 2023 at 10:56:46 AM permalink
GDX is gold miners, I just sold a small amount. The gambler in me is saving the rest for when Gold goes to $2090 . I predict $2100 is the next psychological barrier

If gold goes back down as it has previously then I'm buying back what I sold
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
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November 28th, 2023 at 10:57:24 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Mission146

Quote: odiousgambit

[ this is sound advice. It's stupid to bet on hunches. Ignore that guy who started this thread, especially that stuff to 'gamblers only'. No, really!



I'm not ignoring that and any form of investing, that lacks a sure return, is gambling.
link to original post d

you seem a little defensive so let me say I meant it when I said "no, really!" From a 'sound investment advice' perspective, listening to a guy who posts something like that, is idiotic. Really! No worries!
Quote: Mission146

... quite a few forum members who can attest to the fact that I was saying, "Buy casino stocks," in March/April of 2020...
link to original post

I remember that. Hats off to you! On the other I will point out that investing during that time period , you could have picked about anything and done great. [I have to think, didn't check it out]
link to original post



It's all good.

I'm sorry if I was defensive, but there's nothing I hate more than being wrong, so I wouldn't pull the trigger on even making a post like that unless I was almost positive. My educational background is in Economics, which makes me no better at predictive stuff than the average four year old, but there are occasionally things that can't miss.

Casinos outpaced everything in 2020 for a few months. You could have done great on virtually anything, but you couldn't have done AS great on anything except casinos and PENN was the best of those, by far.

Outside of casinos, I did like one hospitality company that was a bad pick. I loved Medallion Financial and that's actually still up over 300% relative to the time that I picked it. I didn't think it would be that outstanding.

In retail, I was really big on AEO (American Eagle Outfitters) because their CEO, in an earnings call in March 2020, said that they could literally not make a single dollar for the remainder of the year and would be just fine. It's more than double where it was when I liked it and peaked nearly 5x relative to where I liked it.

Anyway, terrible markets are the only time I feel confident because I'm a natural pessimist who just assumes the worst about everything, and everyone, and hopes that the actual case isn't more than twice that bad. For that reason, usually, when I see huge downward price movements and think it's a serious overreaction, I'm usually right.
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Mission146
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November 28th, 2023 at 11:01:22 AM permalink
^^^^

Of course, that's why nobody should ever...EVER...listen to me when I suggest selling something that I suggested buying.

Or, at all. My suggestion will pretty much always be to sell.

But, don't panic sell. I panic sell, myself. Lots of people overreact and panic sell on downward price movement; I'd overreact and want to dump on upward price movement. I don't trust upward price movement.

ADDED: And, yes, I WAS that bored during COVID. I listened to about 100-200 Earnings Calls and doing deep dives into company financials, and what not, for about two weeks. I eventually got bored of that and must have moved on to other things. I think I lost interest completely as soon as overall market conditions had improved/stabilized too much.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
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November 28th, 2023 at 12:12:23 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

GDX is gold miners, I just sold a small amount. The gambler in me is saving the rest for when Gold goes to $2090 . I predict $2100 is the next psychological barrier

If gold goes back down as it has previously then I'm buying back what I sold
link to original post

This gold rally has been largely ignored by the press compared to the first push over US$2000/toz. Gold has made a lot of failed attempts to make a new high, so some folks are ignoring it or fading the rallies. I don't see any particular reason that gold should make new highs, but I expect some FOMO if it does make a new high. I will probably fade any such FOMO rally.

Predicting the price of gold is way above my pay grade. I just try to figure out which miners can make money, pay dividends, and improve reserves with gold in the $1700-2100 range.
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November 28th, 2023 at 1:41:55 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146



I don't have a high opinion of holding gold other than for diversification (as Wizard mentioned) or perhaps as an extremely price stable investment.



Gold is still great for barter. If you get kidnapped in Paramaribo, or need a covert boat ride from Nampo to Dalian, gold may still be your best choice.
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November 28th, 2023 at 2:49:58 PM permalink
Spot gold is now up almost 2% in two days to $2041. I lost almost $10K in 2.5 hours on my new hedges, but that is fine with me. I had a big day. Gold miners should not be priced on spot gold. Rather, they should be priced on expected prices over their reserve lifetime. It is more important to my investments that people start believing that gold over $2000 is the new normal. Then all of that gold in the ground will be valued a lot higher based on higher margins extending out for years.

Disclaimer: I have had a very bad year in 2023 because of my overweighting in gold miners. Do your own DD.
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November 29th, 2023 at 4:10:30 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: Wizard

Quote: OnceDear

It's bad enough being burdened with a few thousand in cash, let alone bullion. Try to sell 2k of bullion here.
link to original post



Perhaps that explains why Goldfinger had to mold it into a Rolls Royce and transport it Switzerland to sell there, if I remember the movie correctly.
link to original post



I think that may have been related to the Exchange Control Act (exaggerated for the benefit of a good story), due to the gold standard still being in effect.
link to original post



They sort of said that in the movie. In the USA you were not allowed to own gold for years except small amounts in jewelry and such. The Bretton Woods crowd did not want individuals trading and hoarding. It being a movie they left it vague as the average person was waiting for the bond girl to show up not hear about international monetary policy
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November 29th, 2023 at 5:17:12 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Wizard

Quote: OnceDear

It's bad enough being burdened with a few thousand in cash, let alone bullion. Try to sell 2k of bullion here.
link to original post



Perhaps that explains why Goldfinger had to mold it into a Rolls Royce and transport it Switzerland to sell there, if I remember the movie correctly.
link to original post



I think that may have been related to the Exchange Control Act (exaggerated for the benefit of a good story), due to the gold standard still being in effect.
link to original post



They sort of said that in the movie. In the USA you were not allowed to own gold for years except small amounts in jewelry and such. The Bretton Woods crowd did not want individuals trading and hoarding. It being a movie they left it vague as the average person was waiting for the bond girl to show up not hear about international monetary policy
link to original post



Thanks!
I had to rewatch it a few days ago (I'm not nearly the Bond enthusiast some are).
They said Auric was a bona fide gold dealer and jeweler (allowed to melt small amounts) but I don't think they ever said exactly what rules he was breaking by smuggling 6 tons of gold a year out of England.

I was quite impressed by that car Odd Job took the mobster "to the airport" in. They loaded about a ton of gold bricks in the trunk, and the suspension barely flexed.
Even more impressed by that light pickup that they dropped the crushed car and gold in the back of.
May the cards fall in your favor.
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November 29th, 2023 at 8:03:29 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I personally view the precious metals as bad investments that you should still have some of your portfolio in, mainly in the interest of diversity. However, they tend to have a nice run once every 10-20 years and I might be singing their praises after they have the next one, which I've been waiting a while for.

Be advised one can easily make bullion transactions under $10,000 anonymously.
link to original post



This is exactly what I was thinking, but I could not put it in such perfect terms.

I am more invested in bitcoin than I am in gold
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December 1st, 2023 at 9:43:32 AM permalink
Spot gold took off again a few hours ago and hit $2,062.40.

My portfolio is up a half million in three weeks.

To hedge or not to hedge? That is the question.
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December 3rd, 2023 at 7:09:42 AM permalink
gold's last trade left it at about $2071

will it get to $2090? I predicted that I think

more accurately, GDX is what I hold and look at, the price of gold is merely 'interesting'. Closed at $31.32 and after hours it's at 31.81. I think it will get to $32 Monday unless there is a general swoon in the stock market [that always has an effect]. $34 is what I'm looking for to sell some more [not all]
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December 3rd, 2023 at 12:29:05 PM permalink
Can you make money withGDX? The chart goes up and down but always comes down to lows that were highs years ago. The dividend is small so you need price appreciation to get ahead. Today’s high around 32.00 was reached in 2013 so anyone who bought then made nothing. Just wondering what your plan is for GDX?
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December 3rd, 2023 at 1:28:14 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

Can you make money withGDX? The chart goes up and down but always comes down to lows that were highs years ago. The dividend is small so you need price appreciation to get ahead. Today’s high around 32.00 was reached in 2013 so anyone who bought then made nothing. Just wondering what your plan is for GDX?
link to original post

after the pandemic speculation ran the price up ... in hindsight it's clear that was a bad time to buy!

I didn't buy then, but I did make the mistake of buying 'some' during the decline from that, using the dollar cost averaging thing. There were other really bad times to get in which I avoided. For me my speculation starts working out nice in the high $30s pricerange ... would not be true for some who bought at $60!! Generally, I think GDX is considered a disappointment, if that's what you are getting at

I like GDX better than, say, GLD, which is an ETF that tracks actual gold price but pays no dividends at all and if IIRC you don't want it in a taxable fund, I forget why

I don't know it it's true or not, but I've heard that for GLD the actual amount of gold held is short of capitalization by something like 10,000%
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December 3rd, 2023 at 2:14:15 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter



Thanks!
I had to rewatch it a few days ago (I'm not nearly the Bond enthusiast some are).
They said Auric was a bona fide gold dealer and jeweler (allowed to melt small amounts) but I don't think they ever said exactly what rules he was breaking by smuggling 6 tons of gold a year out of England.



What "rules" probably means you simply were not allowed to export gold. The Brits were infatuated with their balance-of-payments at this time. That was why the big push to "export or die."

I was quite impressed by that car Odd Job took the mobster "to the airport" in. They loaded about a ton of gold bricks in the trunk, and the suspension barely flexed.
Even more impressed by that light pickup that they dropped the crushed car and gold in the back of.
link to original post



The truck was a Falcon Ranchero. It would never hold the over 2 ton Lincoln let alone the gold. Watch it careful next time, notice that between Oddjob shooting the mafia hood that several hours pass (note the Sun) and the driveline of the Continental has been removed. What probably happened was at the junkyard they pulled the engine and actually crushed the Lincoln, putting it in the bed. Without that engine the Ranchero would be overloaded still but the frame might not just crack.
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December 3rd, 2023 at 3:25:46 PM permalink
Yeah, I kinda thought those autos were a point of artistic license.
There is a huge difference between a "3 body" trunk and a "ton of bricks" trunk.
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December 3rd, 2023 at 3:30:32 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: vegas

Can you make money withGDX? The chart goes up and down but always comes down to lows that were highs years ago. The dividend is small so you need price appreciation to get ahead. Today’s high around 32.00 was reached in 2013 so anyone who bought then made nothing. Just wondering what your plan is for GDX?
link to original post

after the pandemic speculation ran the price up ... in hindsight it's clear that was a bad time to buy!

I didn't buy then, but I did make the mistake of buying 'some' during the decline from that, using the dollar cost averaging thing. There were other really bad times to get in which I avoided. For me my speculation starts working out nice in the high $30s pricerange ... would not be true for some who bought at $60!! Generally, I think GDX is considered a disappointment, if that's what you are getting at

I like GDX better than, say, GLD, which is an ETF that tracks actual gold price but pays no dividends at all and if IIRC you don't want it in a taxable fund, I forget why

I don't know it it's true or not, but I've heard that for GLD the actual amount of gold held is short of capitalization by something like 10,000%
link to original post

I am currently short a ton GDX/GDXJ as a hedge against my portfolio of gold miners. I was short GLD for a while in 2012. I did not start buying gold miners until 2018 when gold was $1200/oz and GDX was at $20. I regret not trimming my overweight gold positions in 2020 and 2021. I am not recommending anyone emulate my overweight position, but I am happy being positioned where I am because I expect interest rates to be a tailwind.

I think Polyus and Polymetal were both in the GDX. These are two major gold miners that are not tradable in the US due to Russian sanctions. Polyus was the #4 producer in the world. I took big losses on these two names. I hope to get some recovery, but for now my positions cannot be sold and are marked to zero in my account. These sanctions may be one reason that the GDX has been so disappointing since Feb 2022. It is another reason I cannot recommend miners for widows and orphans. There are a lot of miners subject to geopolitical risk.

I don't own GLD but I believe the 'paper gold' fund is fundamentally sound. If GLD was a fraud, then short sellers would take it down in a heartbeat. GLD is a considered a derivative based on how the fund is constructed. This mean you do not get ordinary cap gains treatment in taxable funds.

I never owned physical gold or GLD. I own specific gold miners where I like the reserves, AISC, and the management.
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Mental
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December 3rd, 2023 at 3:38:34 PM permalink
If anyone enjoys seeing me take a face plant, my new GDX/GDXJ hedges lost $40K in value in three+ days. My preexisting hedges also lost a bit of value, but they are still out of the money and well in the green.

Nobody ever went broke by hedging, but I did get a margin call on Friday based on the notional change in value of my hedges.
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December 3rd, 2023 at 3:54:58 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Yeah, I kinda thought those autos were a point of artistic license.
There is a huge difference between a "3 body" trunk and a "ton of bricks" trunk.
link to original post



Those old Yank Tanks could take a huge load. Some quick math shows that the one million dollars of gold to be about 1900 pounds at that tine given gold was $35 an ounce. People towed boats with cars back then so the engine could easily handle it. A modern Ford Ranger can take trailer tongue weight of about 900lbs. So my call on that much gold in the trunk is you could probably do it though I would not suggest it.

The trip was just to the airport and Goldfinger could probably pay to fix a cracked frame if needed.

Now, how was the goon flying back home and could his plane fly back an extra ton of weight?
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December 3rd, 2023 at 4:08:30 PM permalink
I once loaded 1050 pounds of kitchen cabinets into a 1984 Corolla and drove home 60 miles. Any modern vehicle should be able to safely carry loads well in excess of the nameplate capacity on smooth roads.
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December 3rd, 2023 at 4:48:27 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

I once loaded 1050 pounds of kitchen cabinets into a 1984 Corolla and drove home 60 miles. Any modern vehicle should be able to safely carry loads well in excess of the nameplate capacity on smooth roads.
link to original post



The difference is between the axles and over one axle. But when my grandfather visited his daughter she always filled his trunk with all kinds of stuff. I am talking early 1970s mafia Cadillac DeVilles. I doubt he ever had 2000lbs but he had zero travel in his shocks. They called them Yank Tanks for a reason!
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December 4th, 2023 at 4:53:41 AM permalink
almost hit $2140 for a while ... now back to $2070 or so

kitco chart
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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December 4th, 2023 at 5:59:44 AM permalink
This thread could not have been timed more perfectly.
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December 4th, 2023 at 6:13:51 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

almost hit $2140 for a while ... now back to $2070 or so

kitco chart
link to original post



When you're right, you're right and you were right. Nice call.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
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December 6th, 2023 at 8:21:16 AM permalink
One reason I put on such large hedges was because I was headed to the Grand Canyon for some hiking and I did not want to worry about the price of gold while I was out in the boondocks. The hedges looked really stupid when spot gold spiked on Sunday, but the hedges were back in the green by Monday. I cannot control the price of gold. I can control my value at risk.
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December 13th, 2023 at 11:56:51 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

One reason I put on such large hedges was because I was headed to the Grand Canyon for some hiking and I did not want to worry about the price of gold while I was out in the boondocks. The hedges looked really stupid when spot gold spiked on Sunday, but the hedges were back in the green by Monday. I cannot control the price of gold. I can control my value at risk.
link to original post

My option page this morning:

I closed out the GDXJ hedge before the Fed news that caused GLD to pop today. My GDX Jan 19 2024 29 Calls that are still open dropped in value by $12K, but I saved a similar amount by closing the GDXJ calls three days before expiration.

Spot gold is up $38 to $2019 in a half hour. I may renew some short term GDXJ hedges later today. I like to close out all of my option positions by year end to simplify tax reporting. I will definitely put on Jan 2025 GDX/J hedges again after 1/1/24.
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December 13th, 2023 at 1:43:44 PM permalink
all time high in the Dow isn't too hard to take either
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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December 13th, 2023 at 1:57:09 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

all time high in the Dow isn't too hard to take either
link to original post

I have very little exposure to the Dow component stocks. I have huge realized and unrealized losses in fixed income securities this year. I harvest $35K of tax losses on TLT alone. REITS and utilities were hammered by the Fed but are starting to recover a bit. The only fixed income class where I didn't lose money was business development corporations due the the floating rate nature of their investments (see the BIZD ETF or ARCC).

My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.
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December 13th, 2023 at 2:35:01 PM permalink
I worked on a new strategy this year and concentrated on breaking even but collecting 10-12% in dividends.

Funded three different accounts so I could tweak them as needed. One fund is up 1.8% but pays 11% dividend. The other is up 2.7% and pays 12%. The other is up 22.6% and pays 9% currently because of the recent price increases. Stocks were a great place to be this year, so the jury is still out on my experiment.

I had a good, but not spectacular year selling comics. I'd hoped to make $6,000 profit this year, but it will be closer to $5300. Sales were down about a third from last year but profit per unit was up. The Comic back issue market took a huge hit in the last 18 months, with many books down 30% or more from their peak. I had a customer who I'd set up with a $15K portfolio try to sell it back and got mad when I offered him market value. I suspect he's an ex-customer these days.
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