billryan
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December 13th, 2023 at 2:37:53 PM permalink
I worked on a new strategy this year and concentrated on breaking even but collecting 10-12% in dividends.

Funded three different accounts so I could tweak them as needed. One fund is up 1.8% but pays 11% dividend. The other is up 2.7% and pays 12%. The other is up 22.6% and pays 9% currently because of the recent price increases. Stocks were a great place to be this year, so the jury is still out on my experiment.

I had a good, but not spectacular year selling comics. I'd hoped to make $6,000 profit this year, but it will be closer to $5300. Sales were down about a third from last year but profit per unit was up. The Comic back issue market took a huge hit in the last 18 months, with many books down 30% or more from their peak. I had a customer who I'd set up with a $15K portfolio try to sell it back and got mad when I offered him market value. I suspect he's an ex-customer these days.
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DRich
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December 14th, 2023 at 6:00:36 AM permalink
Quote: Mental


My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.



It is nice to hear someone admit when they have a poor year. We all know it happens. some will never admit it.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
odiousgambit
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December 14th, 2023 at 6:34:05 AM permalink
Generally speaking, they say the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio underwent an unusually bad period

I suffered through that, though happy to say i was more like 70/30

what I really regret is not having a 100% stock portfolio when I started. I was pretty much 60/40 right from the beginning ... on the other hand, I could have screwed up a 100%-in-stocks portfolio even when young, because I didn't really understand the needed diversification back then ... didn't even know there were such things as funds either
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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December 14th, 2023 at 6:39:09 AM permalink
now happy to say I bought back what I sold when gold dipped a bit ... trading now at about $2030

I have confidence no matter what happens gold will return to above 2000, no prolonged dips ... maybe a couple of months or so at most
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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December 14th, 2023 at 6:44:18 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Mental


My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.



It is nice to hear someone admit when they have a poor year. We all know it happens. some will never admit it.
link to original post

I am only admitting that the market is temporarily pricing my holdings incorrectly ;) My portfolio actually turned positive for the year this morning. I was down 16% in late October. Does it really make sense to measure my portfolio performance precisely in dollars when dollars typically change in value by 5% per year.

Yesterday's rally in gold looks like shorts got caught on the wrong foot. I thought there might be some pullback in the short term. I was wrong about that already. My biggest holdings are producing gold at less than $1000/toz, so I don't really need gold above $2000/oz to support the valuations. High cost producers have more leverage to the price of gold.
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billryan
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December 14th, 2023 at 6:55:37 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Mental


My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.



It is nice to hear someone admit when they have a poor year. We all know it happens. some will never admit it.
link to original post



There really is no reason to have a poor year. Not every year will be a home run but a diversified portfolio should only increase. When the market is running well, as it is right now, you can sit back and just enjoy the ride. It's when the market is in a bear market, that it becomes challenging. Proper diversification can eliminate almost all risk, but too many people think diversification means owning a dozen ETFs, all focused on the same thing.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
billryan
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December 14th, 2023 at 7:01:19 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Generally speaking, they say the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio underwent an unusually bad period

I suffered through that, though happy to say i was more like 70/30

what I really regret is not having a 100% stock portfolio when I started. I was pretty much 60/40 right from the beginning ... on the other hand, I could have screwed up a 100%-in-stocks portfolio even when young, because I didn't really understand the needed diversification back then ... didn't even know there were such things as funds either
link to original post



When I turned 62, I went from 100% stocks to a 65-35 mix favoring stocks. Other than Savings Bonds, I knew nothing about the bond market and my trusted advisors don't seem to know much either as my bond portfolio is down over 10% since its inception, while my stocks are up and collecting dividends.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Mental
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December 14th, 2023 at 7:09:42 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Quote: Mental


My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.



It is nice to hear someone admit when they have a poor year. We all know it happens. some will never admit it.
link to original post



There really is no reason to have a poor year. Not every year will be a home run but a diversified portfolio should only increase. When the market is running well, as it is right now, you can sit back and just enjoy the ride. It's when the market is in a bear market, that it becomes challenging. Proper diversification can eliminate almost all risk, but too many people think diversification means owning a dozen ETFs, all focused on the same thing.
link to original post

In October, the Ten Year Treasury (TLT) was down 20% from one year ago on a total return basis. It was hard for older investors to avoid a big drawdown when all of fixed income was in the toilet.

I don't want my portfolio to be deworsified. I like making directional bets. I was clearly wrong/early when rates stayed higher for longer this year. Sometimes I am spectacularly right like during the GFC when I was short mortgage bankers and homebuilders and I tripled my portfolio in 8 months.
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DRich
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December 14th, 2023 at 7:53:40 AM permalink
I guess I am just a gambler. Pretty much all of my investments are in about eight stocks.
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Mental
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December 14th, 2023 at 10:10:11 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

It is probably -EV to take advice from random people on social groups, especially gamblers.

I have never been long gold or silver. I am very much overweight in precious metal miners including juniors with several million $US invested. PM producers were was a painful place to be invested from April to October this year, and explorers fared even worse. I have recovered somewhat as gold prices recovered since early October.

The margins for PM producers was hurt more than I expected from labor costs and high fuel prices. I expect tailwinds from lower oil prices in the current quarter. Long term, electrification of more mining equipment and electricity from new solar projects will help with energy costs.

Gold doesn't pay a dividend -- some miners are currently paying very significant dividends. Some producers are paying dividends out of depleting mines. Avoid them. I prefer junior producers with a history of finding more gold on their own permitted claims. The majors need to constantly acquire juniors to make up for depleting millions of ounces of reserves per year. Some of these acquisitions can be major fails. AEM has done the best in this regard.

I like IAUX, KRRGF, KNTNF, and DNGDF.
link to original post

IAUX was trading a $1.42 yesterday afternoon and hit $1.73 today on great drill results (+21%). While IAUX is producing small amounts of gold now, they really are a speculative developer. They have a lot of projects in NV that have been producing great drill results. They need time and capital to become one of the largest gold producers in NV.

KNTNF is up 18% and KRRGF up 12% in less than two days. Okay, I am cherry picking low and high prices, but these are very large positions for me.

DNGDF is a toll miller that isn't as sensitive to the gold spot price, but has been growing production and has done very well for me over the last five year while paying a safe 3.15% dividend.

I am not really recommending buying now after the run up, but I have $1.25M tied up in these four stocks. Do your own DD.
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billryan
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December 14th, 2023 at 10:22:40 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: Mental

It is probably -EV to take advice from random people on social groups, especially gamblers.

I have never been long gold or silver. I am very much overweight in precious metal miners including juniors with several million $US invested. PM producers were was a painful place to be invested from April to October this year, and explorers fared even worse. I have recovered somewhat as gold prices recovered since early October.

The margins for PM producers was hurt more than I expected from labor costs and high fuel prices. I expect tailwinds from lower oil prices in the current quarter. Long term, electrification of more mining equipment and electricity from new solar projects will help with energy costs.

Gold doesn't pay a dividend -- some miners are currently paying very significant dividends. Some producers are paying dividends out of depleting mines. Avoid them. I prefer junior producers with a history of finding more gold on their own permitted claims. The majors need to constantly acquire juniors to make up for depleting millions of ounces of reserves per year. Some of these acquisitions can be major fails. AEM has done the best in this regard.


I am not really recommending buying now after the run up, but I have $1.25M tied up in these four stocks. Do your own DD.
link to original post



Dollar amounts mean little. Those four stocks could be 100% of your portfolio or 5%.
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odiousgambit
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December 19th, 2023 at 1:39:07 PM permalink
making another run now? .... $2040 or so

back to checking on that $2090 I was looking for ...
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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December 19th, 2023 at 3:12:26 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

making another run now? .... $2040 or so

back to checking on that $2090 I was looking for ...
link to original post


It is interesting that GLD hit its 52-week high on Dec 1st at $192.40. The after hours quotes must have been much higher, but the price of spot gold had been much higher before GLD opened for trading on Dec. 4th. This means some charts missed the all-time high is spot gold and GLD is officially only 2.22% away from the 52-week high.

The official all-time high for GLD was $193.89 on August 06, 2020. It is as if the recent record in spot gold prices on Sunday Dec 3rd never happened.

Also, Kitco got hacked and my favorite source for spot gold prices is not available in its usual format.
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odiousgambit
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December 20th, 2023 at 10:09:50 AM permalink
Mental has me looking for 'juniors' now

Uranium has been volatile lately. I found a Juniors Miner etf, URNJ................. this is the wildest one day chart I've ever seen for an ETF! Look at this!

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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December 23rd, 2023 at 6:50:28 AM permalink
Quote: Luciles

We need to buy a pickup truck!
link to original post

well, I won't accuse you of being a AI robot
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dieter
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December 23rd, 2023 at 7:31:17 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Luciles

We need to buy a pickup truck!
link to original post

well, I won't accuse you of being a AI robot
link to original post



Nope! Not AI
May the cards fall in your favor.
odiousgambit
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December 27th, 2023 at 8:25:26 AM permalink
gold trading around $2079 right now.... 2090 around the corner?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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December 27th, 2023 at 9:59:04 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

gold trading around $2079 right now.... 2090 around the corner?
link to original post

The official all-time high for GLD was $193.89 on August 06, 2020. GLD traded at $193.01 today.

I had huge losses for the year on my gold-heavy portfolio as recently as seven weeks ago. Now I am solidly ahead for the year, but only half as far ahead as I was in April. I removed all of my GDX/GDXJ hedges yesterday morning. Fingers crossed.
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odiousgambit
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March 4th, 2024 at 8:27:34 AM permalink
you never know with this commodity

shot up to $ 2100+ today. KItco news says it's 'weaker' today, I guess they meant early hours ... suggests this is a surprise

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-04/mild-price-pressure-gold-silver-after-recent-gains
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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March 4th, 2024 at 9:00:20 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

you never know with this commodity

shot up to $ 2100+ today. KItco news says it's 'weaker' today, I guess they meant early hours ... suggests this is a surprise

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-04/mild-price-pressure-gold-silver-after-recent-gains
link to original post



I watch gold prices daily, I have no idea why I do it as I do not own any gold, today is the highest I ever remember seeing it.
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vegas
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March 4th, 2024 at 10:18:46 AM permalink
When the markets are hurting gold was were people parked their money until things looked better. Today many of those same investors turn to crypto. Gold is too manipulated to go on a big run
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Mental
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March 4th, 2024 at 12:01:30 PM permalink
GLD will probably make a new all-time closing high today, but the PM miners are still way down from even the December peak. Look at GDX and GDXJ. I own no gold, only the producers. As I can see from my portfolio performance, this has not been a good idea for several years. If gold stays high, the better miners will run higher. The run up for GDXJ in 2021 was very kind to me, but it has been mostly downhill since then.
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terapined
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March 4th, 2024 at 12:16:01 PM permalink
I dont think Gold will ever take off unless China attacks Taiwan
I think the chances of that are slim due how much trouble Russia is having with Ukraine
If China does attack, gold will probably skyrocket
Other then that , I just see a very very slow steady rise
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
OnceDear
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March 4th, 2024 at 12:32:17 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

When the markets are hurting gold was were people parked their money until things looked better. Today many of those same investors turn to crypto. link to original post



For whatever reason, Bitcoin has been riding on a rocket this week. Right now... 67518USD +4376 +6.93% just on the day!
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
odiousgambit
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March 4th, 2024 at 12:34:23 PM permalink
the gold miner stocks are so far behind gold itself it made me think someone has been shorting them

if so they are going to have to cover ... but how long does that take to do? those stocks are up 3-4% , maybe that will go on for a while or not
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
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March 21st, 2024 at 4:21:38 AM permalink
Quote: vegas

Can you make money withGDX? The chart goes up and down but always comes down to lows that were highs years ago. The dividend is small so you need price appreciation to get ahead. Today’s high around 32.00 was reached in 2013 so anyone who bought then made nothing. Just wondering what your plan is for GDX?
link to original post

Gold is making another move and is over $2200/oz this morning

I have had to admit upthread GDX [gold miner etf] hasn't done what I hoped, though it seemed to get dividends would be the way to go when I invested in it. I've even seen it claimed that stocks tend to react even more than the commodity. Plus, back when gold made a big run decades ago I cleaned up this way.

But I really felt that the next run up for gold [which is happening now] would show that was in the past for GDX and now it would shoot up when gold did. This hasn't happened yet [ has just gone up modestly instead] ... so I am really watching this now today. Premarket for GDX shows it up 4%

[edits]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
vegas
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March 21st, 2024 at 5:21:25 AM permalink
I wish you good luck on GDX and perhaps it will make a move. I have been in stocks,etf's ect most of my life and my worst sector has been the miners. I have a covered call gold etf here in Canada CGXF that pays a great 10.74% dividend but the has been going down for years. I sold some last year and will sell the rest before summer.
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Mental
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March 31st, 2024 at 3:58:17 PM permalink
Spot Gold hit $2240 at the open today. GLD will hit a new record if the POG is sustained through tomorrow. The stock prices of gold producers always lag the price of gold. Gold producers get paid the average price of gold over the lifetime of the mine. It makes no sense to rerate a gold producer just because spot gold prices spike. Producers should be valued based on what spot gold prices are telling us about what to expect for the POG over the next ten years. If the POG rises slowly but steadily, this is bullish for the long term POG.

Some of the producers have over 50M ounces of proven reserves. Even if you apply a discount to that, a $100 increase in the POG makes that company much more valuable, if not $5B more valuable.
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DRich
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March 31st, 2024 at 4:06:28 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Spot Gold hit $2240 at the open today. GLD will hit a new record if the POG is sustained through tomorrow. The stock prices of gold producers always lag the price of gold. Gold producers get paid the average price of gold over the lifetime of the mine. It makes no sense to rerate a gold producer just because spot gold prices spike. Producers should be valued based on what spot gold prices are telling us about what to expect for the POG over the next ten years. If the POG rises slowly but steadily, this is bullish for the long term POG.

Some of the producers have over 50M ounces of proven reserves. Even if you apply a discount to that, a $100 increase in the POG makes that company much more valuable, if not $5B more valuable.
link to original post



Many of the mines hedge on the price and sell future gold at an agreed upon price prior to the mining of that gold. Very similar to the way airlines can buy fuel ahead of time at an agreed upon price.
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odiousgambit
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March 31st, 2024 at 5:35:58 PM permalink
GDX, my main holding in this speculation, has been slow to respond for damn sure

I reduced my position, which was just too large. I will still be very happy if it finally responds more vigorously
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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April 1st, 2024 at 4:48:34 AM permalink
Very few producers hedge their entire production for the year. None hedge their reserves or their production a few years out. This is why I say you need to focus on the reserves and the POG life of mine. I think hedging is mostly used when producers have a lot of debt. Lenders often require that they hedge so they are able to pay off the loan even if the POG tanks. I own a lot of stocks of gold producers and most of them have strong balance sheet, great cash flow, and no hedges at all.

I am expecting a good day today as I own a lot of producers and several explorers. I am short 35,000 shares of GDX/GDXJ as a hedge. These positions are in the red now. I am also short 4000 shares of DJT through options.
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DRich
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April 2nd, 2024 at 10:49:22 AM permalink
Gold up $25 today. I am surprised how quickly it is going up.
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unJon
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April 2nd, 2024 at 11:53:13 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Gold up $25 today. I am surprised how quickly it is going up.
link to original post



Powell said higher for longer . . .
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mental
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April 2nd, 2024 at 12:01:49 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Gold up $25 today. I am surprised how quickly it is going up.
link to original post

And I am surprised how little attention it is getting in the general press. The gold bugs already have all the gold they can stuff into their mattresses. The central banks are probably going to taper off buying at these prices. I think this latest move is being driven by people who were short gold or people who owned no gold and are now fearing missing out on gold. Gold is the new crypto.

DJT having a what I hope is a dead cat bounce today. The last few days would have been more fun if my fixed income wasn't getting hammered.
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Mental
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April 9th, 2024 at 6:51:40 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: DRich

Gold up $25 today. I am surprised how quickly it is going up.
link to original post

And I am surprised how little attention it is getting in the general press. The gold bugs already have all the gold they can stuff into their mattresses. The central banks are probably going to taper off buying at these prices. I think this latest move is being driven by people who were short gold or people who owned no gold and are now fearing missing out on gold. Gold is the new crypto.

DJT having a what I hope is a dead cat bounce today. The last few days would have been more fun if my fixed income wasn't getting hammered.
link to original post


I am not one for technical analysis, but one of these charts is a good trend and the other is not. I have been short 4000-7000 shares of DJT via options for this entire period and way overweight gold miners. I am a bit concerned that GLD may be near a peak. DJT has a long way to go down yet.
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odiousgambit
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April 9th, 2024 at 8:13:53 AM permalink
a retreat from the current level is easy to believe, $2345 at the moment, has been about $20 higher at points

I think you were right about a lot of the current interest being latecomers caught up in it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
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April 9th, 2024 at 1:32:45 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

a retreat from the current level is easy to believe, $2345 at the moment, has been about $20 higher at points

I think you were right about a lot of the current interest being latecomers caught up in it
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$2371 right now
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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