Will Gold Take Off?
Funded three different accounts so I could tweak them as needed. One fund is up 1.8% but pays 11% dividend. The other is up 2.7% and pays 12%. The other is up 22.6% and pays 9% currently because of the recent price increases. Stocks were a great place to be this year, so the jury is still out on my experiment.
I had a good, but not spectacular year selling comics. I'd hoped to make $6,000 profit this year, but it will be closer to $5300. Sales were down about a third from last year but profit per unit was up. The Comic back issue market took a huge hit in the last 18 months, with many books down 30% or more from their peak. I had a customer who I'd set up with a $15K portfolio try to sell it back and got mad when I offered him market value. I suspect he's an ex-customer these days.
Quote: Mental
My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.
It is nice to hear someone admit when they have a poor year. We all know it happens. some will never admit it.
I suffered through that, though happy to say i was more like 70/30
what I really regret is not having a 100% stock portfolio when I started. I was pretty much 60/40 right from the beginning ... on the other hand, I could have screwed up a 100%-in-stocks portfolio even when young, because I didn't really understand the needed diversification back then ... didn't even know there were such things as funds either
I have confidence no matter what happens gold will return to above 2000, no prolonged dips ... maybe a couple of months or so at most
I am only admitting that the market is temporarily pricing my holdings incorrectly ;) My portfolio actually turned positive for the year this morning. I was down 16% in late October. Does it really make sense to measure my portfolio performance precisely in dollars when dollars typically change in value by 5% per year.Quote: DRichQuote: Mental
My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.
It is nice to hear someone admit when they have a poor year. We all know it happens. some will never admit it.
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Yesterday's rally in gold looks like shorts got caught on the wrong foot. I thought there might be some pullback in the short term. I was wrong about that already. My biggest holdings are producing gold at less than $1000/toz, so I don't really need gold above $2000/oz to support the valuations. High cost producers have more leverage to the price of gold.
Quote: DRichQuote: Mental
My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.
It is nice to hear someone admit when they have a poor year. We all know it happens. some will never admit it.
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There really is no reason to have a poor year. Not every year will be a home run but a diversified portfolio should only increase. When the market is running well, as it is right now, you can sit back and just enjoy the ride. It's when the market is in a bear market, that it becomes challenging. Proper diversification can eliminate almost all risk, but too many people think diversification means owning a dozen ETFs, all focused on the same thing.
Quote: odiousgambitGenerally speaking, they say the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio underwent an unusually bad period
I suffered through that, though happy to say i was more like 70/30
what I really regret is not having a 100% stock portfolio when I started. I was pretty much 60/40 right from the beginning ... on the other hand, I could have screwed up a 100%-in-stocks portfolio even when young, because I didn't really understand the needed diversification back then ... didn't even know there were such things as funds either
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When I turned 62, I went from 100% stocks to a 65-35 mix favoring stocks. Other than Savings Bonds, I knew nothing about the bond market and my trusted advisors don't seem to know much either as my bond portfolio is down over 10% since its inception, while my stocks are up and collecting dividends.
In October, the Ten Year Treasury (TLT) was down 20% from one year ago on a total return basis. It was hard for older investors to avoid a big drawdown when all of fixed income was in the toilet.Quote: billryanQuote: DRichQuote: Mental
My overall portfolio is still down 2% for the year, and I suppose most of you did much better than I did in 2023. If interest rates keep falling, I expect utilities like AES, PM miners, and REITs to do very well next year. TLT is already up 14% from where I sold it.
It is nice to hear someone admit when they have a poor year. We all know it happens. some will never admit it.
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There really is no reason to have a poor year. Not every year will be a home run but a diversified portfolio should only increase. When the market is running well, as it is right now, you can sit back and just enjoy the ride. It's when the market is in a bear market, that it becomes challenging. Proper diversification can eliminate almost all risk, but too many people think diversification means owning a dozen ETFs, all focused on the same thing.
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I don't want my portfolio to be deworsified. I like making directional bets. I was clearly wrong/early when rates stayed higher for longer this year. Sometimes I am spectacularly right like during the GFC when I was short mortgage bankers and homebuilders and I tripled my portfolio in 8 months.
IAUX was trading a $1.42 yesterday afternoon and hit $1.73 today on great drill results (+21%). While IAUX is producing small amounts of gold now, they really are a speculative developer. They have a lot of projects in NV that have been producing great drill results. They need time and capital to become one of the largest gold producers in NV.Quote: MentalIt is probably -EV to take advice from random people on social groups, especially gamblers.
I have never been long gold or silver. I am very much overweight in precious metal miners including juniors with several million $US invested. PM producers were was a painful place to be invested from April to October this year, and explorers fared even worse. I have recovered somewhat as gold prices recovered since early October.
The margins for PM producers was hurt more than I expected from labor costs and high fuel prices. I expect tailwinds from lower oil prices in the current quarter. Long term, electrification of more mining equipment and electricity from new solar projects will help with energy costs.
Gold doesn't pay a dividend -- some miners are currently paying very significant dividends. Some producers are paying dividends out of depleting mines. Avoid them. I prefer junior producers with a history of finding more gold on their own permitted claims. The majors need to constantly acquire juniors to make up for depleting millions of ounces of reserves per year. Some of these acquisitions can be major fails. AEM has done the best in this regard.
I like IAUX, KRRGF, KNTNF, and DNGDF.
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KNTNF is up 18% and KRRGF up 12% in less than two days. Okay, I am cherry picking low and high prices, but these are very large positions for me.
DNGDF is a toll miller that isn't as sensitive to the gold spot price, but has been growing production and has done very well for me over the last five year while paying a safe 3.15% dividend.
I am not really recommending buying now after the run up, but I have $1.25M tied up in these four stocks. Do your own DD.
Quote: MentalQuote: MentalIt is probably -EV to take advice from random people on social groups, especially gamblers.
I have never been long gold or silver. I am very much overweight in precious metal miners including juniors with several million $US invested. PM producers were was a painful place to be invested from April to October this year, and explorers fared even worse. I have recovered somewhat as gold prices recovered since early October.
The margins for PM producers was hurt more than I expected from labor costs and high fuel prices. I expect tailwinds from lower oil prices in the current quarter. Long term, electrification of more mining equipment and electricity from new solar projects will help with energy costs.
Gold doesn't pay a dividend -- some miners are currently paying very significant dividends. Some producers are paying dividends out of depleting mines. Avoid them. I prefer junior producers with a history of finding more gold on their own permitted claims. The majors need to constantly acquire juniors to make up for depleting millions of ounces of reserves per year. Some of these acquisitions can be major fails. AEM has done the best in this regard.
I am not really recommending buying now after the run up, but I have $1.25M tied up in these four stocks. Do your own DD.
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Dollar amounts mean little. Those four stocks could be 100% of your portfolio or 5%.The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
back to checking on that $2090 I was looking for ...
Quote: odiousgambitmaking another run now? .... $2040 or so
back to checking on that $2090 I was looking for ...
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It is interesting that GLD hit its 52-week high on Dec 1st at $192.40. The after hours quotes must have been much higher, but the price of spot gold had been much higher before GLD opened for trading on Dec. 4th. This means some charts missed the all-time high is spot gold and GLD is officially only 2.22% away from the 52-week high.
The official all-time high for GLD was $193.89 on August 06, 2020. It is as if the recent record in spot gold prices on Sunday Dec 3rd never happened.
Also, Kitco got hacked and my favorite source for spot gold prices is not available in its usual format.
Uranium has been volatile lately. I found a Juniors Miner etf, URNJ................. this is the wildest one day chart I've ever seen for an ETF! Look at this!
well, I won't accuse you of being a AI robotQuote: LucilesWe need to buy a pickup truck!
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Quote: odiousgambitwell, I won't accuse you of being a AI robotQuote: LucilesWe need to buy a pickup truck!
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Nope! Not AI
The official all-time high for GLD was $193.89 on August 06, 2020. GLD traded at $193.01 today.Quote: odiousgambitgold trading around $2079 right now.... 2090 around the corner?
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I had huge losses for the year on my gold-heavy portfolio as recently as seven weeks ago. Now I am solidly ahead for the year, but only half as far ahead as I was in April. I removed all of my GDX/GDXJ hedges yesterday morning. Fingers crossed.
shot up to $ 2100+ today. KItco news says it's 'weaker' today, I guess they meant early hours ... suggests this is a surprise
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-04/mild-price-pressure-gold-silver-after-recent-gains
Quote: odiousgambityou never know with this commodity
shot up to $ 2100+ today. KItco news says it's 'weaker' today, I guess they meant early hours ... suggests this is a surprise
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-04/mild-price-pressure-gold-silver-after-recent-gains
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I watch gold prices daily, I have no idea why I do it as I do not own any gold, today is the highest I ever remember seeing it.
I think the chances of that are slim due how much trouble Russia is having with Ukraine
If China does attack, gold will probably skyrocket
Other then that , I just see a very very slow steady rise
Quote: vegasWhen the markets are hurting gold was were people parked their money until things looked better. Today many of those same investors turn to crypto. link to original post
For whatever reason, Bitcoin has been riding on a rocket this week. Right now... 67518USD +4376 +6.93% just on the day!
if so they are going to have to cover ... but how long does that take to do? those stocks are up 3-4% , maybe that will go on for a while or not
Gold is making another move and is over $2200/oz this morningQuote: vegasCan you make money withGDX? The chart goes up and down but always comes down to lows that were highs years ago. The dividend is small so you need price appreciation to get ahead. Today’s high around 32.00 was reached in 2013 so anyone who bought then made nothing. Just wondering what your plan is for GDX?
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I have had to admit upthread GDX [gold miner etf] hasn't done what I hoped, though it seemed to get dividends would be the way to go when I invested in it. I've even seen it claimed that stocks tend to react even more than the commodity. Plus, back when gold made a big run decades ago I cleaned up this way.
But I really felt that the next run up for gold [which is happening now] would show that was in the past for GDX and now it would shoot up when gold did. This hasn't happened yet [ has just gone up modestly instead] ... so I am really watching this now today. Premarket for GDX shows it up 4%
[edits]
Some of the producers have over 50M ounces of proven reserves. Even if you apply a discount to that, a $100 increase in the POG makes that company much more valuable, if not $5B more valuable.
Quote: MentalSpot Gold hit $2240 at the open today. GLD will hit a new record if the POG is sustained through tomorrow. The stock prices of gold producers always lag the price of gold. Gold producers get paid the average price of gold over the lifetime of the mine. It makes no sense to rerate a gold producer just because spot gold prices spike. Producers should be valued based on what spot gold prices are telling us about what to expect for the POG over the next ten years. If the POG rises slowly but steadily, this is bullish for the long term POG.
Some of the producers have over 50M ounces of proven reserves. Even if you apply a discount to that, a $100 increase in the POG makes that company much more valuable, if not $5B more valuable.
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Many of the mines hedge on the price and sell future gold at an agreed upon price prior to the mining of that gold. Very similar to the way airlines can buy fuel ahead of time at an agreed upon price.
I reduced my position, which was just too large. I will still be very happy if it finally responds more vigorously
I am expecting a good day today as I own a lot of producers and several explorers. I am short 35,000 shares of GDX/GDXJ as a hedge. These positions are in the red now. I am also short 4000 shares of DJT through options.
Quote: DRichGold up $25 today. I am surprised how quickly it is going up.
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Powell said higher for longer . . .
And I am surprised how little attention it is getting in the general press. The gold bugs already have all the gold they can stuff into their mattresses. The central banks are probably going to taper off buying at these prices. I think this latest move is being driven by people who were short gold or people who owned no gold and are now fearing missing out on gold. Gold is the new crypto.Quote: DRichGold up $25 today. I am surprised how quickly it is going up.
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DJT having a what I hope is a dead cat bounce today. The last few days would have been more fun if my fixed income wasn't getting hammered.
Quote: MentalAnd I am surprised how little attention it is getting in the general press. The gold bugs already have all the gold they can stuff into their mattresses. The central banks are probably going to taper off buying at these prices. I think this latest move is being driven by people who were short gold or people who owned no gold and are now fearing missing out on gold. Gold is the new crypto.Quote: DRichGold up $25 today. I am surprised how quickly it is going up.
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DJT having a what I hope is a dead cat bounce today. The last few days would have been more fun if my fixed income wasn't getting hammered.
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I am not one for technical analysis, but one of these charts is a good trend and the other is not. I have been short 4000-7000 shares of DJT via options for this entire period and way overweight gold miners. I am a bit concerned that GLD may be near a peak. DJT has a long way to go down yet.
I think you were right about a lot of the current interest being latecomers caught up in it
Quote: odiousgambita retreat from the current level is easy to believe, $2345 at the moment, has been about $20 higher at points
I think you were right about a lot of the current interest being latecomers caught up in it
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$2371 right now
