2026 WOV Picks Game Discussion Thread

Is anyone interested in running the NFL Picks Contest for 2026? I, along with others, could help with scoring and ranking the participants each week -as we have done the last several years.

AND/OR

Is anyone interested in a college football version of the Picks Game? We could use the 10 games (and their lines) that ESPN chooses each week for their college picks contest. Maybe each WOV contestant selects 5 of the 10 weekly games with the ability to designate one game as a confidence pick?

I can do a college version.

My ideas:
1. All games that include an AP top 25 team against another FBS team are included - no FBS versus FCS games (exception: all ten conference championship games are included in the final week, even if neither one is ranked)
2. Point spreads and odds come from the William Hill app on, say, Wednesday morning
3. I am wavering on whether or not to allow more than five picks per week - on one hand, why limit it to five, but on the other hand, Circa must have a good reason why its big contest limits everybody to five

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I can do a college version.

My ideas:
1. All games that include an AP top 25 team against another FBS team are included - no FBS versus FCS games (exception: all ten conference championship games are included in the final week, even if neither one is ranked)
2. Point spreads and odds come from the William Hill app on, say, Wednesday morning
3. I am wavering on whether or not to allow more than five picks per week - on one hand, why limit it to five, but on the other hand, Circa must have a good reason why its big contest limits everybody to five
link to original post

Thank you. That would certainly be fine with me and I would enthusiastically sign up for it Let's see what others think and whether there's interest.

The NFL picks contest is still an open question. Is PlayYourCardsRight still participating in the forum?

I would absolutely play in the NFL format we've had for the last few years.

I just do not have the time to be the commissioner.

Just copying Wizard's post from a different thread.

Quote: Wizard

As a four-time winner, I'm in. Sorry, but don't have time to coordinate.
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Quote: Vegasbrent

I'm in to play. I'm too uncoordinated to coordinate.
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Quoted from the wrong thread where it was posted

I am still around.

Was going to post tomorrow or Tuesday to gauge interest.

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

I am still around.

Was going to post tomorrow or Tuesday to gauge interest.
link to original post

I’ll play.

If nobody else wants to be this year's commissioner, I will do it.

Here are my proposed rules - somebody point out any glaring errors or make any suggestions to changes.


WIZARD OF VEGAS 2026 NFL PICKS CONTEST - PROPOSED RULES
Changes in red

1. The entry fee is $30, of which $25 goes into the Prize Pool and $5 goes into the Perfection Pool.
Everybody is on the Honor System - you do not send me any money; instead, at the end of the season, you send $25 to the Prize Pool winner and $5 divided equally among the Perfection Pool winners.

2. There will be 18 rounds - one per regular season week. There will not be any postseason rounds.

3. At some point on the Thursday before each round, I will post the spreads and Over/Under numbers for each NFL game being played on that Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. Thursday and Friday games will not be included.
The primary source for spreads will be the William Hill Nevada app, but the commissioner has the option to use a different source if that source is unavailable (for example, driving to M and getting the numbers from the William Hill sportsbook there).

4. Each entry will include up to five picks. A "pick" is either a team to win against the spread, or Over or Under on a particular game.
For an Over/Under, you need only specify one team in the game. If you specify two and they are not playing each other, the selection will be made on the game with the team you listed first.
You may select both a Spread and an Over/Under on the same game.
You may not select both teams for a Spread in the same game; if you do, the selection on the underdog (or the visiting team, if it is Pick'Em) will be removed.
You may not select both Over and Under in the same game; if you do, the Under will be removed.
If an entry has six or more valid picks, only the first five listed will be counted.

5. One of the five picks may, but does not have to, be designated as a "confidence pick."
A confidence pick counts as two wins or losses (or one of each if the pick is a push).

6. You are allowed to "skip" five games. This is a change from the old "skip week" rule; instead, you can select fewer than five games in a round, provided the total number of games skipped in the season does not exceed five.
You can skip an entire round; that counts as all five games you are allowed to skip.
If you skip any games once you are past five, the "default selection" procedure will be used.

7. Each player may submit a "default selection procedure" to be used if they miss, or are short in, a round, and have no skips available.
Note that any skips the player has remaining will be used before the default selection procedure is used.
The default "default selection procedure" is:
(a) Spread on the favorite with the lowest spread
(b) Over on the lowest number
(c) Spread on the underdog with the highest spread
(d) Under on the highest number
(e) Spread on the favorite with the lowest spread
None of these will be Confidence picks
Ties for the highest/lowest will be in alphabetical order of the team nickname
For Over/Unders, alphabetical order of the home team's nickname
(Clarification: Bears comes before Bills (e.g.) whether it is a favorite, underdog, over, or under selection)

Here is an example - for 2025 Week 18, the spreads and over/under numbers were:
Spread:
Seahawks -1.5 vs 49ers
Bears -3 vs Lions
Buccaneers -3 vs Panthers
Cowboys -3.5 vs Giants
Falcons -3.5 vs Saints
Ravens -3.5 vs Steelers
Eagles -4.5 vs Commanders
Chiefs -5.5 vs Raiders
Bills -7 vs Jets
Bengals -7.5 vs Browns
Rams -7.5 vs Cardinals
Vikings -7.5 vs Packers
Texans -10.5 vs Colts
Patriots -10.5 vs Dolphins
Jaguars -12.5 vs Titans
Broncos -12.5 vs Chargers

Over/Under:
Cowboys-Giants 51.5
Lions-Bears 50.5
Seahawks-49ers 47.5
Titans-Jaguars 47.5
Cardinals-Rams 46.5
Dolphins-Patriots 45.5
Saints-Falcons 44.5
Browns-Bengals 44.5
Panthers-Buccaneers 43.5
Ravens-Steelers 40.5
Colts-Texans 38.5
Jets-Bills 38.5
Commanders-Eagles 38.5
Chargers-Broncos 37.5
Chiefs-Raiders 36.5
Packers-Vikings 35.5

The "default" picks would be, in order (in case fewer than five were needed):
1. Seahawks spread (-1.5)
2. Packers-Vikings Over 35.5
3. Chargers spread (+12.5) - Chargers comes before Titans alphabetically
4. Cowboys-Giants Under 51.5
5. Bears spread (-3) - Bears comes before Buccaneers alphabetically


8. Picks are to be PMed to the commissioner, preferrably with a title that clearly identifies that it is an entry in the contest.
The deadline for sending in picks is noon Eastern time on Sunday, except that if any of your picks include any Saturday games, the deadline is one hour before the earliest scheduled kickoff for any of your picks.
If your picks include any Saturday games and are made after the Saturday deadline but before the Sunday one, the Saturday game(s) will be treated as skips.

9. Once a set of picks is submitted, it cannot be changed.

10. The "recommended" format for submitting your picks is:
At the top, your Wizard of Vegas name, followed by a colon.
Below that, your five picks.
A spread pick consists of the team nickname followed by either "Spread" or the spread itself (e.g. "+4").
An Over/Under pick consists of the team nickname followed by "Over" or "Under", and optionally the number (e.g. "Over 42 1/2").
If you make a Confidence pick, put "* Confidence" at the end of that pick.

11. If there are 10 or fewer entries, the Prize Pool will go in its entirety to the person with the highest winning percentage at the end of the season.
There is no tiebreaker; ties split the Prize Pool equally.
If there are 11 or more entries, and there is a tie for first, the tied players split the Prize Pool equally.
If there are 11 or more entries, and there is a single winner, the winner receives the larger of $250 and 2/3 of the Prize Pool, and the remainder goes to the player with the second-best winning percentage, or split among the tied players in a tie for second.
The Perfection Poll will be divided equally among all players that had at least one round with a 5-0 record that included a Confidence pick. If no one qualifies, the money will be added to the Prize Pool.

12. The commissioner has the final authority on all decisions made concerning the operation of this contest.

I’ll play.
Regarding the rules, 7a and 7e are the same. Did you mean to have another option?

Quote: JimRockford

I’ll play.
Regarding the rules, 7a and 7e are the same. Did you mean to have another option?
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No. In each of those steps, a selection that has not already been chosen either way is selected.

If ThatDonGuy wants to run it, I will cede to him and still participate as a player.

Thanks
PYCR

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

If ThatDonGuy wants to run it, I will cede to him and still participate as a player.

Thanks
PYCR
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Much praise to PYCR for the thankless job he has done the past couple of years.

And thanks to ThatDonGuy for volunteering for this year!

It looks like we're not going to have a college Picks contest thus year as only ThatDonGuy and I expressed interest.

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

If ThatDonGuy wants to run it, I will cede to him and still participate as a player.

Thanks
PYCR
link to original post

Okay, I'll do it.

Here is the current list of who wants to enter this year:
(last updated 8/25 at 3:30 PM Eastern):
gordonm888
IndyJeffrey
JimRockford
Johnzimbo
PlayYourCardsRight
SOOPOO
Wizard

If you want in (or out), let me know. The deadline for entering will be 9 AM Eastern on Saturday 9/12.

I'll play again and hopefully not end up in second again

I’m in. https://miplet.net/newnfl/ Should still work, but please double check the first 2 weeks. It uses DraftKings lines.

Quote: miplet

I’m in. https://miplet.net/newnfl/ Should still work, but please double check the first 2 weeks. It uses DraftKings lines.
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Thanks for the link, but I am using William Hill for the lines, not DraftKings.

Don,

Miplet's list is what everyone is familiar with, and prints it in a quick format to cut and paste.

Do it your way, but that link makes it super easy as the host.

PYCR

does anyone have a list of former players? perhaps a message to invite them would yeild a couple extra players

I have done that the last few years. Just gone into past threads and worked from that.

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Don,

Miplet's list is what everyone is familiar with, and prints it in a quick format to cut and paste.

Do it your way, but that link makes it super easy as the host.

PYCR
link to original post

I suppose I could set up a page on one of my websites that can do the same thing, if it's really necessary.

I just assumed that each week's odds would be posted in this thread.

Quote: IndyJeffrey

does anyone have a list of former players? perhaps a message to invite them would yeild a couple extra players
link to original post

Just click on Gambling/Sports - the threads discussing the last three years of contests are easy to find as they are "stuck" on the top of that thread category.

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: IndyJeffrey

does anyone have a list of former players? perhaps a message to invite them would yeild a couple extra players
link to original post

Just click on Gambling/Sports - the threads discussing the last three years of contests are easy to find as they are "stuck" on the top of that thread category.
link to original post

I've compiled a list, however, it appears I do not have authorization to send a multi person message. Makes complete sense. Does anyone have this capability and could send an invite out to former players. I'll share the list.

Quote: IndyJeffrey

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: IndyJeffrey

does anyone have a list of former players? perhaps a message to invite them would yeild a couple extra players
link to original post

Just click on Gambling/Sports - the threads discussing the last three years of contests are easy to find as they are "stuck" on the top of that thread category.
link to original post

I've compiled a list, however, it appears I do not have authorization to send a multi person message. Makes complete sense. Does anyone have this capability and could send an invite out to former players. I'll share the list.
link to original post

I don't have permission to send a message to multiple people either.

Then again, I don't have anything better to do; I can send out individual messages. You can send me the list.

Quote: IndyJeffrey

I've compiled a list, however, it appears I do not have authorization to send a multi person message. Makes complete sense. Does anyone have this capability and could send an invite out to former players. I'll share the list.
link to original post

I can do it. Please message me the list.

Im in for NFL this year

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I don't have permission to send a message to multiple people either.

Then again, I don't have anything better to do; I can send out individual messages. You can send me the list.
link to original post

We need to give ThatDonGuy the ability to send messages to multiple people given that he will be running this contest. I'll look into that.

I'm in.

Change to Rule 8:
8. Picks are to be PMed to the commissioner, preferrably with a title that clearly identifies that it is an entry in the contest.
The deadline for sending in picks is noon Eastern time on Sunday, except that if any of your picks include any Saturday games or any Sunday games that start before 1 PM Eastern, the deadline is one hour before the earliest scheduled kickoff for any of your picks.
Any selection for a game that is submitted after the deadline for that game will be treated as a skip; however, any selections on that submission made before the deadline for that game will count.

Change to Rule 10:
10. The "recommended" format for submitting your picks is:
At the top, your Wizard of Vegas name, followed by a colon.
Below that, your five picks.
A spread pick consists of the team nickname followed by either "Spread" or the spread itself (e.g. "+4").
An Over/Under pick consists of the team nickname followed by "Over" or "Under", and optionally the number (e.g. "Over 42 1/2").
If you make a Confidence pick, put "* Confidence" at the end of that pick.
If a pick shows a different point spread or Over/Number number than what the posted odds are, the Commissioner will attempt to PM you before the deadline to confirm or change the pick; however, once the deadline is reached, the pick stands, using the "official" odds for that week, but any Confidence tag will be ignored.

Here is the list of players that I have:
gordonm888
IndyJeffrey
JimRockford
Johnzimbo
miplet
nunbeater
PlayYourCardsRight
SOOPOO
Vegasbrent
Wizard

The Week 1 odds will be posted here on Thursday.

The updated rules can always be found here.

Ten names already - is there still room to join for week 1 or is the list locked? First NFL season I'd have time to actually track picks every week instead of just lurking the chatter thread. If there's a spot, count me in and I'll send my picks as soon as the odds post.

Good luck to everyone already locked in - week 1 is always the coin-flip week anyway. I'll be watching the thread Thursday for the odds either way, and if a spot opens I'm ready with picks. My week 1 lean so far: unders on any total above 47 in outdoor cold-weather games, the rust is real in openers.

Quote: Izzybets

Ten names already - is there still room to join for week 1 or is the list locked? First NFL season I'd have time to actually track picks every week instead of just lurking the chatter thread. If there's a spot, count me in and I'll send my picks as soon as the odds post.
link to original post

As long as you respond to That DonGuy with Week1 Picks I believe that you'll be considered as being in. By entering you are committing to a $25 entry fee which is paid at the end of the contest (if you are not a winner.)

Perfect, thanks gordonm888. $25 entry noted and fair. I'll PM my week 1 picks to ThatDonGuy as soon as the odds are up - first time actually committing to tracking a full season instead of just talking about it. Should make the chatter thread sweat sessions more fun.

Locked in - week 1 odds it is. Quick one while we wait: does the confidence pick have to be a spread pick or can it be a total? Leaning toward using mine on an over in a dome game, openers in perfect conditions tend to fly.

Quote: Izzybets

Locked in - week 1 odds it is. Quick one while we wait: does the confidence pick have to be a spread pick or can it be a total? Leaning toward using mine on an over in a dome game, openers in perfect conditions tend to fly.
link to original post

Your confidence pick can be either Against the Spread or an Over/Under.. Good luck.

Week 1 Odds

Sunday Early Games
Bears -3 @ Panthers +3 / Bears-Panthers Over/Under 46.5
Buccaneers +3.5 @ Bengals -3.5 / Buccaneers-Bengals Over/Under 50.5
Saints +7 @ Lions -7 / Saints-Lions Over/Under 49.5
Bills -1.5 @ Texans +1.5 / Bills-Texans Over/Under 44.5
Ravens -3.5 @ Colts +3.5 / Ravens-Colts Over/Under 47.5
Browns +8.5 @ Jaguars -8.5 / Browns-Jaguars Over/Under 40.5
Falcons +3.5 @ Steelers -3.5 / Falcons-Steelers Over/Under 42.5
Jets +1.5 @ Titans -1.5 / Jets-Titans Over/Under 38.5
Sunday Late Games
Cardinals +9.5 @ Chargers -9.5 / Cardinals-Chargers Over/Under 47.5
Dolphins +3 @ Raiders -3 / Dolphins-Raiders Over/Under 40.5
Packers +1.5 @ Vikings -1.5 / Packers-Vikings Over/Under 46.5
Commanders +4.5 @ Eagles -4.5 / Commanders-Eagles Over/Under 44.5
Sunday Night
Cowboys -3 @ Giants +3 / Cowboys-Giants Over/Under 47.5
Monday Night
Broncos -2.5 @ Chiefs +2.5 / Broncos-Chiefs Over/Under 43.5

If anybody would like to see this in a different format (e.g. you prefer Miplet's old format), let me know

Nice work getting the full sheet up. That Commanders +4.5 is the one jumping out at me - division road dog with a healthy QB against an Eagles secondary that got cooked on deep balls late last year. Also leaning Bills team total over - they put up 30+ in four of their last six home openers. Anyone else making the Commanders their week 1 anchor play?

Appreciate the sheet - makes entry easy. My week 1 leans: Commanders +4.5 (division road dog, Eagles secondary still leaky on deep balls) and Bills -1.5 at home. Confidence pick will be Saints-Lions over 49.5 - dome-ish conditions, both secondaries were bottom-10 in red zone, Monday night point-fest energy. Curious what everyone's leaning for the confidence slot - spread or total?

Quote: Izzybets

Nice work getting the full sheet up. That Commanders +4.5 is the one jumping out at me - division road dog with a healthy QB against an Eagles secondary that got cooked on deep balls late last year. Also leaning Bills team total over - they put up 30+ in four of their last six home openers. Anyone else making the Commanders their week 1 anchor play?
link to original post

You need a better research department. The Bills are playing in Houston. And Houston is touted to have the best D in the league this year. And Josh Allen hasn’t won in Houston.
But on a more important type question….. you are including a ‘home opener from 6 years ago’ as if it has some relevance to what happens on Sunday? Can you guess how many players from them are on the team now? 7. And that includes a backup RB, the kicker, and a backup tight end, and the long snapper.
And of course the coaching staff is totally overhauled as well.
My ‘analysis’ would definitely pick under. The O/U for Bills’ points is 23.5. Guess how many of the Texans’ home games they gave up over 23.5? That would be ONE out of the 9 home regular season games.

As the biggest Bills fan here, I hope you are right. Hope doesn’t put food on the table….

Not sure I want to post my picks on here, but I don't like the Commanders at all. I'd take the under for regular season wins for them in fact. That doesn't mean I'm going against them a lot, but I'd be hard pressed to pick them even once this season.

I attempted to PM my picks to TDG. The PM would not go through. So I sent them to Gordon instead. If TDG sends me a PM I am able to respond. This has happened to me for years. Don’t know why.

Quote: Izzybets

Nice work getting the full sheet up. That Commanders +4.5 is the one jumping out at me - division road dog with a healthy QB against an Eagles secondary that got cooked on deep balls late last year. Also leaning Bills team total over - they put up 30+ in four of their last six home openers. Anyone else making the Commanders their week 1 anchor play?
link to original post

Since the contest is a competition based on the picks we make, most of us don't reveal our opinions and strategies on picks before the weekly deadline for submitting picks is past. After all, there is money at stake. But you are welcome to do so, if you wish.

Guys the Browns are really gonna take off this year just take the Browns over and the Browns spread and go ahead and make that your confidence pick this is all great advice

nunbeater I like the enthusiasm but the Browns over is a brave confidence pick - that defense kept most games close last year even when the offense faceplanted, so if you're riding them, the over feels safer than trusting the spread. Are you banking on the QB situation settling, or just a pure 'any given Sunday' play?

Good point gordon - that makes sense with money on the line, I'll keep my leans to myself until the deadline passes going forward. Still learning the etiquette here. Browns question stands for anyone who wants to talk season-win totals after locks are in.

And maybe players are posting picks they didn't make, but want you to think they made.

That's a fair point - the honor system only works if the incentives stay honest, and a picks contest is the cheapest way to keep a real record. I'm mainly here to be held accountable to my own numbers, even if the season humbles me. Are you in the pool this year or just spectating?

Rules question:

If I submit "Default Picks," am I required to use my Skips first? Or do my "default" picks supersede?

Thanks,
PYCR

Browns over AND the spread as your confidence pick is maximum chaos and I respect it. Watson staying healthy is the whole ballgame - if he plays even 14 games that defense drags them to 8-9 and the over cashes. If you hit it I'll tip my hat all season.