I guess reasonable people can disagree on the prospects for Watson and the Browns. Fortunately, we'll get to see what actually happens.
Quote: PlayYourCardsRightRules question:
If I submit "Default Picks," am I required to use my Skips first? Or do my "default" picks supersede?
Thanks,
PYCR
link to original post
You use your skips first.
Still working on my picks for this contest, but I generally don't tip my hand about my picks.
May throw out some prop bets, but I only won about 33% of them last season, so they'd be more for fading than tailing.
Welcome and good luck!
IndyJeffrey:
Falcons-Steelers Under 42.5 * Confidence
Ravens -3.5
Steelers -3.5
Cardinals-Chargers Under 47.5
Raiders -3
Wizard:
Colts +3.5 * Confidence
Steelers -3.5
Jets +1.5
Cardinals +9.5
Eagles -4.5
PlayYourCardsRight:
Bears -3 * Confidence
Lions -7
Steelers -3.5
Chargers -9.5
Broncos -2.5
nunbeater:
Steelers -3.5 * Confidence
Chargers -9.5
Lions -7
Saints-Lions Over 49.5
Vikings -1.5
gordonm888:
Dolphins-Raiders Under 40.5
Texans +1.5
Bills-Texans Under 44.5
Jaguars -8.5
Bears-Panthers Under 46.5
SOOPOO:
Browns +8.5 * Confidence
Buccaneers +3.5
Cardinals +9.5
Commanders +4.5
Packers +1.5
Vegasbrent
Eagles -4.5 * Confidence
Jaguars -8.5
Titans -1.5
Ravens -3.5
Cowboys -3
JimRockford:
Chiefs +2.5 * Confidence
Buccaneers-Bengals Under 50.5
Saints-Lions Under 49.5
Steelers -3.5
Commanders +4.5
Johnzimbo:
Steelers -3.5 * Confidence
Colts +3.5
Saints +7
Falcons-Steelers Under 42.5
Bills-Texans Under 44.5
miplet:
Chiefs +2.5 * Confidence
Steelers -3.5
Bears/Panthers Over 46.5
Vikings -1.5
Eagles -4.5
I did not get any picks from Izzybets, so this counts as the five allowed skips
gl everyone and FOOTBALL IS BACK! lets go!
Let's go and good luck to everyone!
Bears beat Panthers 59-37 and I picked that game as an Under. Hoo Boy.
I had New Orleans Tampa Bay under 49.5. It was 7-0 at the half. Final score, 30-31. Oh well it’s a long season.Quote: gordonm888Yikes! Apparently my best decision was to not designate any of my picks as a Confidence pick.
Bears beat Panthers 59-37 and I picked that game as an Under. Hoo Boy.
link to original post
Quote: SOOPOO2-4 for SOOPOO. Gets what he deserves for picking Browns!
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The good news is you'll still be in the Top Ten.
New offensive and defensive coordinators, Inability to game plan because no film on your opponents; starting offensive lines never play during preseason and have to learn to play together;
| Player | W | L | % Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| IndyJeffrey | 6 | 0 | 100 |
| miplet | 5 | 1 | 83.33 |
| JimRockford | 4 | 2 | 66.67 |
| Johnzimbo | 4 | 2 | 66.67 |
| nunbeater | 4 | 2 | 66.67 |
| Wizard | 3 | 3 | 50 |
| gordonm888 | 2 | 3 | 40 |
| SOOPOO | 2 | 4 | 33.33 |
| Vegasbrent | 2 | 4 | 33.33 |
| PlayYourCardsRight | 1 | 5 | 16.67 |
| Izzybets | 0 | 0 |
If Izzybets does not enter Week 2, I will assume that they are not playing.
My confidence pick won.
| Player | W | L | % Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| IndyJeffrey | 6 | 0 | 100 |
| miplet | 5 | 1 | 83.33 |
| JimRockford | 4 | 2 | 66.67 |
| Johnzimbo | 4 | 2 | 66.67 |
| nunbeater | 4 | 2 | 66.67 |
| PlayYourCardsRight | 3 | 3 | 50 |
| Wizard | 3 | 3 | 50 |
| gordonm888 | 2 | 3 | 40 |
| SOOPOO | 2 | 4 | 33.33 |
| Vegasbrent | 2 | 4 | 33.33 |
| Izzybets | 0 | 0 |
If Izzybets does not enter Week 2, I will assume that they are not playing.
link to original post
Sunday Early Games
Saints +8.5 @ Ravens -8.5 / Saints-Ravens Over/Under 46.5
Bengals +2.5 @ Texans -2.5 / Bengals-Texans Over/Under 45.5
Steelers +5.5 @ Patriots -5.5 / Steelers-Patriots Over/Under 41.5
Browns +8.5 @ Buccaneers -8.5 / Browns-Buccaneers Over/Under 41.5
Panthers -2.5 @ Falcons +2.5 / Panthers-Falcons Over/Under 43.5
Vikings +4.5 @ Bears -4.5 / Vikings-Bears Over/Under 48
Packers -3.5 @ Jets +3.5 / Packers-Jets Over/Under 44.5
Eagles -7 @ Titans +7 / Eagles-Titans Over/Under 39.5
Sunday Late Games
Jaguars +2.5 @ Broncos -2.5 / Jaguars-Broncos Over/Under 45.5
Raiders +6.5 @ Chargers -6.5 / Raiders-Chargers Over/Under 43.5
Seahawks -4 @ Cardinals +4 / Seahawks-Cardinals Over/Under 41
Commanders +4 @ Cowboys -4 / Commanders-Cowboys Over/Under 50.5
Dolphins +13.5 @ 49ers -13.5 / Dolphins-49ers Over/Under 45
Sunday Night
Colts +6.5 @ Chiefs -6.5 / Colts-Chiefs Over/Under 46.5
Monday Night
Giants +7 @ Rams -7 / Giants-Rams Over/Under 48
It appears that Izzybets has left the forum entirely, so they are not part of the contest
gordonm888:
Panthers -2.5 * Confidence
Jets +3.5
Seahawks -4
Patriots -5.5
Rams -7
IndyJeffrey:
Chiefs -6.5 * Confidence
Bengals-Texans Over 45.5
Vikings +4.5
Packers -3.5
Seahawks -4
JimRockford:
Giants +7 * Confidence
Saints-Ravens Over 46.5
Falcons +2.5
Raiders +6.5
Cardinals +4
Johnzimbo:
Broncos -2.5 * Confidence
Jets +3.5
Panthers -2.5
Texans -2.5
49ers -13.5
miplet:
Commanders +4 * Confidence
Browns +8.5
Broncos -2.5
Chargers -6.5
Colts +6.5
nunbeater:
Raiders +6.5 * Confidence
49ers -13.5
Jets +3.5
Ravens-Saints Over 46.5
Jaguars-Broncos Over 45.5
PlayYourCardsRight:
Seahawks -4 * Confidence
Bengals +2.5
Packers -3.5
Broncos -2.5
Chiefs -6.5
SOOPOO:
Saints +8.5 * Confidence
Steelers +5.5
Jets +3.5
Raiders +6.5
Chiefs -6.5
Vegasbrent:
Ravens -8.5 * Confidence
Panthers -2.5
Bears -4.5
Broncos -2.5
Giants +7
Wizard:
Jets +3.5 * Confidence
Steelers +5.5
Browns +8.5
Colts +6.5
Giants +7
| Player | W2 Wins | W2 Losses | Total Wins | Total Losses | % Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnzimbo | 5 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 75 |
| gordonm888 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 72.73 |
| IndyJeffrey | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 66.67 |
| miplet | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 66.67 |
| nunbeater | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| PlayYourCardsRight | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 58.33 |
| Wizard | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 58.33 |
| SOOPOO | 4 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 50 |
| JimRockford | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 41.67 |
| Vegasbrent | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 33.33 |
Sunday Early Games
Chargers +7 @ Bills -7 / Chargers-Bills Over/Under 50
Panthers -2.5 @ Browns +2.5 / Panthers-Browns Over/Under 42.5
Jets +6.5 @ Lions -6.5 / Jets-Lions Over/Under 47.5
Texans -2.5 @ Colts +2.5 / Texans-Colts Over/Under 42.5
Patriots +3 @ Jaguars -3 / Patriots-Jaguars Over/Under 45.5
Chiefs -11.5 @ Dolphins +11.5 / Chiefs-Dolphins Over/Under 46
Titans +2.5 @ Giants -2.5 / Titans-Giants Over/Under 38.5
Bengals -3.5 @ Steelers +3.5 / Bengals-Steelers Over/Under 42.5
Seahawks -7 @ Commanders +7 / Seahawks-Commanders Over/Under 40
Sunday Late Games
Cardinals +8 @ 49ers -8 / Cardinals-49ers Over/Under 47.5
Vikings -1.5 @ Buccaneers +1.5 / Vikings-Buccaneers Over/Under 42.5
Raiders +3 @ Saints -3 / Raiders-Saints Over/Under 43.5
Ravens -3.5 vs Cowboys +3.5 (in Rio) / Ravens-Cowboys Over/Under 52.5
Sunday Night
Rams -2.5 @ Broncos +2.5 / Rams-Broncos Over/Under 44.5
Monday Night
Eagles -4.5 @ Bears +4.5 / Eagles-Bears Over/Under 41
Quote: JimRockfordWhere TF were the Falcons last week??
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Which brings up the question: What is the value of a starting QB in the points spread?
Quote: gordonm888Quote: JimRockfordWhere TF were the Falcons last week??
link to original post
Which brings up the question: What is the value of a starting QB in the points spread?
link to original post
Josh Allen is worth the most. Estimate 7-8 points. Michael Penix estimated at 2 points. Of course it will vary based on who the backup is. A pretty good QB like Dak Prescott is worth 5.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888Quote: JimRockfordWhere TF were the Falcons last week??
link to original post
Which brings up the question: What is the value of a starting QB in the points spread?
link to original post
Josh Allen is worth the most. Estimate 7-8 points. Michael Penix estimated at 2 points. Of course it will vary based on who the backup is. A pretty good QB like Dak Prescott is worth 5.
link to original post
Yet if this conventional analysis is correct and if Penix is only worth 2 points, then why did the Falcons so greatly overperform their expected performance when he started at QB this week?
Quote: gordonm888Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888Quote: JimRockfordWhere TF were the Falcons last week??
link to original post
Which brings up the question: What is the value of a starting QB in the points spread?
link to original post
Josh Allen is worth the most. Estimate 7-8 points. Michael Penix estimated at 2 points. Of course it will vary based on who the backup is. A pretty good QB like Dak Prescott is worth 5.
link to original post
Yet if this conventional analysis is correct and if Penix is only worth 2 points, then why did the Falcons so greatly overperform their expected performance when he started at QB this week?
link to original post
You are joking, right? You are using the result of ONE football game to question the value of one player?
The Falcons overperfomed because Bijan Robinson vastly overperformed his expectations.
By the way, I did agree with you that Penix was worth more, hence my multiple bets on the Falcons plus the points!
Free money (maybe!) today on Presidents cup. I think it was +180/-160 or so. Too bad I don’t have that much money in these accounts…. If match ends up in a tie all bets are void. So I just need either team to win.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888Quote: JimRockfordWhere TF were the Falcons last week??
link to original post
Which brings up the question: What is the value of a starting QB in the points spread?
link to original post
Josh Allen is worth the most. Estimate 7-8 points. Michael Penix estimated at 2 points. Of course it will vary based on who the backup is. A pretty good QB like Dak Prescott is worth 5.
link to original post
Yet if this conventional analysis is correct and if Penix is only worth 2 points, then why did the Falcons so greatly overperform their expected performance when he started at QB this week?
link to original post
You are joking, right? You are using the result of ONE football game to question the value of one player?
The Falcons overperfomed because Bijan Robinson vastly overperformed his expectations.
By the way, I did agree with you that Penix was worth more, hence my multiple bets on the Falcons plus the points!
Free money (maybe!) today on Presidents cup. I think it was +180/-160 or so. Too bad I don’t have that much money in these accounts…. If match ends up in a tie all bets are void. So I just need either team to win.
link to original post
You have it backwards and upside down. JimRockford asked the question: Why were the Falcons so much better in Week 3 than in Week 1 and 2? That was the question -which you haven't yet answered Soopoo. I asked 'How much is the QB worth?', because I believe in this instance that the team had lost confidence in Cooper Rush and were inspired by the return of Michael Penix. And that in this instance Penix was worth far, far more than 2 points.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888Quote: JimRockfordWhere TF were the Falcons last week??
link to original post
Which brings up the question: What is the value of a starting QB in the points spread?
link to original post
Josh Allen is worth the most. Estimate 7-8 points. Michael Penix estimated at 2 points. Of course it will vary based on who the backup is. A pretty good QB like Dak Prescott is worth 5.
link to original post
Yet if this conventional analysis is correct and if Penix is only worth 2 points, then why did the Falcons so greatly overperform their expected performance when he started at QB this week?
link to original post
You are joking, right? You are using the result of ONE football game to question the value of one player?
The Falcons overperfomed because Bijan Robinson vastly overperformed his expectations.
By the way, I did agree with you that Penix was worth more, hence my multiple bets on the Falcons plus the points!
Free money (maybe!) today on Presidents cup. I think it was +180/-160 or so. Too bad I don’t have that much money in these accounts…. If match ends up in a tie all bets are void. So I just need either team to win.
link to original post
You have it backwards and upside down. JimRockford asked the question: Why were the Falcons so much better in Week 3 than in Week 1 and 2? That was the question -which you haven't yet answered Soopoo. I asked 'How much is the QB worth?', because I believe in this instance that the team had lost confidence in Cooper Rush and were inspired by the return of Michael Penix. And that in this instance Penix was worth far, far more than 2 points.
link to original post
You are having reading comprehension issues. They WERE better in week 3 than week 2. But to try and assign an exact amount of that ‘better’ to Penix is a fool’s errand. As I clearly wrote, I believed Penix was worth more than the two points, and bet (successfully) accordingly. And I DID answer the question…. Bijan Robinson had a game for the ages. Even better than his usual good games. Penix was ok, and clearly better than Rush was.
And most obviously, trying to use 1 game to prove a point is silly. I’m not even sure the Falcons would be favored over the Packers if they played on a neutral field next week even though the Falcons boat raced them last game.
Quote: PlayYourCardsRightNo picks posted?
link to original post
Very unfortunate. Really destroys the enjoyability of the game.
Quote: PlayYourCardsRightNo picks posted?
link to original post
I knew I forgot something...
Week 3 Picks
gordonm888
Bengals -3.5 * Confidence
Seahawks -7
Vikings -1.5
Panthers-2.5
Eagles -4.5
IndyJeffrey
Texans -2.5 * Confidence
Jets/Lions Under 47.5
Titans/Giants Under 38.5
Bengals -3.5
Raiders +3
JimRockford
Broncos +2.5 * Conference
Bills -7
Jets +6.5
Titans +2.5
Cardinals +8
Johnzimbo
Saints -3 * Confidence
Cowboys +3.5
Panthers -2.5
Texans -2.5
Texans/Colts Over 42.5
miplet
Seahawks -7 * Confidence
Browns +2.5
Colts +2.5
Dolphins +11.5
Bears +4.5
nunbeater
Bills -7 * Confidence
Vikings -1.5
Raiders +3
Jets +6.5
Cardinals +8
PlayYourCardsRight
Ravens -3.5 * Confidence
Browns +2.5
Patriots +3
Chiefs -11.5
Giants -2.5
SOOPOO
Eagles -3.5 * Confidence
Panthers -2.5
Texans -2.5
Rams -2.5
Chiefs -11.5
Vegasbrent
Chiefs -11.5 * Confidence
Lions -6.5
Bengals -3.5
49ers -8
Eagles -4.5
Wizard
Colts +2.5 * Confidence
Patriots +3
Dolphins +11.5
Seahawks -7
Buccaneers +1.5
| Player | W3 Wins | W3 Losses | Total Wins | Total Losses | % Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nunbeater | 5 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 68.42 |
| miplet | 3 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 61.11 |
| IndyJeffrey | 2 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 55.56 |
| Johnzimbo | 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 55.56 |
| PlayYourCardsRight | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 55.56 |
| gordonm888 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 52.94 |
| JimRockford | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 50 |
| Wizard | 2 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 50 |
| SOOPOO | 1 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 38.89 |
| Vegasbrent | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 38.89 |

Quote: gordonm888Lots of upsets and surprises last week. My hats off to those of you (nunbeater, JimRockford) that scored > 50% wins.
link to original post
Thanks, it was clearly superior handicapping skill. Now last week, that was jut bad luck.
Reminder: if any of your picks are for the Colts-Commanders game, they must be in by 8:30 AM Eastern on Sunday.
If you include the game but submit your picks between 8:30 AM and Noon on Sunday, any Colts-Commanders pick(s) will be treated as Skips.
Sunday Early Games
Colts -3.5 (London) Commanders +3.5 / Colts-Commanders Over/Under 47.5
Titans +11.5 @ Ravens -11.5 / Titans-Ravens Over/Under 42.5
Patriots +6.5 @ Bills -6.5 / Patriots-Bills Over/Under 48.5
Jets +3.5 @ Bears -3.5 / Jets-Bears Over/Under 42.5
Jaguars +2.5 @ Bengals -2.5 / Jaguars-Bengals Over/Under 51.5
Cowboys +3 @ Texans -3 / Cowboys-Texans Over/Under 48.5
Cardinals -2.5 @ Giants +2.5 / Cardinals-Giants Over/Under 44.5
Rams -3 @ Eagles +3 / Rams-Eagles Over/Under 43.5
Packers -3.5 @ Buccaneers +3.5 / Packers-Buccaneers Over/Under 38.5
Sunday Late Games
Dolphins +10.5 @ Vikings -10.5 / Dolphins-Vikings Over/Under 38.5
Chiefs -4.5 @ Raiders +4.5 / Chiefs-Raiders Over/Under 47.5
Chargers +7 @ Seahawks -7 / Chargers-Seahawks Over/Under 42.5
Broncos +2.5 @ 49ers -2.5 / Broncos-49ers Over/Under 48.5
Sunday Night
Lions -3.5 @ Panthers +3.5 / Lions-Panthers Over/Under 50.5
Monday Night
Falcons +2.5 @ Saints -2.5 / Falcons-Saints Over/Under 47.5
gordonm888
Jaguars +2.5 * Confidence
Bills -6.5
Cowboys +3
49ers -2.5
Panthers +3.5
IndyJeffrey
49ers -2.5 * Confidence
Colts-Commanders Under 47.5
Bills -6.5
Texans -3
Buccaneers +3.5
JimRockford
Raiders +4.5 * Confidence
Bears -3.5
Giants +2.5
Buccaneers +3.5
49ers -2.5
Johnzimbo
Cardinals-Giants Under 44.5 * Confidence
Dolphins-Vikings Under 38.5
Lions-Panthers Over 50.5
Cowboys-Texans Over 48.5
49ers -2.5
miplet
Buccaneers +3.5 * Confidence
Colts -3.5
Rams -3
Dolphins +10.5
Falcons +2.5
nunbeater
Jets-Bears Over 42.5 * Confidence
Raiders +4.5
Rams -3
Buccaneers +3.5
Panthers +3.5
PlayYourCardsRight
Bengals -2.5 * Confidence
Bills -6.5
Giants +2.5
Buccaneers +3.5
Raiders +4.5
SOOPOO
Bills -6.5 * Confidence
Colts -3.5
Packets -3.5
Lions -3.5
Saints -2.5
Vegasbrent
49ers -2.5 * Confidence
Ravens -11.5
Vikings -10.5
Seahawks -7
Saints -2.5
Wizard
Rams -3 * Confidence
Cowboys +3
Buccaneers +3.5
Dolphins +10.5
Falcons +2.5

