2026 WOV Picks Game Discussion Thread

I miss the good old days when last place meant something….

seems as though we're seeing 6-0 at a much higher clip than years past, no?

Quote: IndyJeffrey

seems as though we're seeing 6-0 at a much higher clip than years past, no?
link to original post

Compelling clear evidence that we've evolved into a group of elite 'sharps.'

Consider my four weekly results:

2-3
6-0
1-5
5-1

Given a wagering strategy of skipping every other week, I would be a virtual God who would be crushing the sportsbooks. I mean, what could go wrong?

Week 5 Odds

Sunday Very Early Game (must be in by 8:30 AM Sunday)
Eagles +7.5 (London) Jaguars -7.5 / Eagles-Jaguars Over/Under 42
Sunday Early Games
Bengals -6.5 @ Dolphins +6.5 / Bengals-Dolphins Over/Under 42.5
Raiders +3.5 @ Patriots -3.5 / Raiders-Patriots Over/Under 45
Vikings -2 @ Saints +2 / Vikings-Saints Over/Under 41.5
Browns +1.5 @ Jets -1.5 / Browns-Jets Over/Under 40
Colts +2.5 @ Steelers -2.5 / Colts-Steelers Over/Under 44.5
Texans -7.5 @ Titans +7.5 / Texans-Titans Over/Under 38
Giants +3.5 @ Commanders -3.5 / Giants-Commanders Over/Under 41.5
Bears -1.5 @ Packers +1.5 / Bears-Packers Over/Under 45.5
Sunday Late Games
Broncos -3.5 @ Chargers +3.5 / Broncos-Chargers Over/Under 42
Lions -5.5 @ Cardinals +5.5 / Lions-Cardinals Over/Under 54.5
49ers +3 @ Seahawks -3 / 49ers-Seahawks Over/Under 46.5
Sunday Night
Ravens +3.5 @ Falcons -3.5 / Ravens-Falcons Over/Under 43.5
Monday Night
Bills +3 @ Rams -3 / Bills-Rams Over/Under 54.5

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: IndyJeffrey

seems as though we're seeing 6-0 at a much higher clip than years past, no?
link to original post

Compelling clear evidence that we've evolved into a group of elite 'sharps.'

Consider my four weekly results:

2-3
6-0
1-5
5-1

Given a wagering strategy of skipping every other week, I would be a virtual God who would be crushing the sportsbooks. I mean, what could go wrong?
link to original post

Why skip every other week? Fade your WoV picks at the sportbooks this week.

Week 5 Picks

gordonm888
Bears -1.5 * Confidence
Giants +3.5
Steelers -2.5
49ers +3
Rams -3

IndyJeffrey
49ers +3 * Confidence
Dolphins +6.5
Raiders +3.5
Saints +2
Steelers -2.5

JimRockford
Raiders +3.5 * Confidence
Giants +3.5
Bears -1.5 (for Ditka)
Falcons -3.5
Bills +3

Johnzimbo
Chargers +3.5 * Confidence
Jaguars -7.5
Bears/Packers Under 45.5
Raiders +3.5
Vikings/Saints Under 41.5

miplet
Titans +7.5 * Confidence
Jaguars -7.5
Bengals -6.5
Jets -1.5
Rams -3

nunbeater
49ers +3 * Confidence
Raiders +3.5
Vikings -2
Bears -1.5
Bengals -6.5

PlayYourCardsRight
Lions -5.5 * Confidence
Bengals -6.5
Raiders +3.5
Vikings -2
Browns +1.5

SOOPOO
Eagles +7.5 * Confidence
Jets -1.5
Colts +2.5
Giants +3.5
Falcons -3.5

Vegasbrent
Steelers -2.5 * Confidence
Jaguars -7.5
Bengals -6.5
Giants +3.5
49ers +3

Wizard
Titans +7.5 * Confidence
Raiders +3.5
Steelers -2.5
Giants +3.5
Ravens +3.5

Results after Week 5

Player	W5 Wins	W5 Losses	Total Wins	Total Losses	% Wins
nunbeater	4	2	21	9	70
miplet	2	4	19	11	63.33
Wizard	3	3	18	12	60
gordonm888	3	3	17	12	58.62
IndyJeffrey	3	3	17	13	56.67
JimRockford	2	4	17	13	56.67
PlayYourCardsRight	4	2	17	13	56.67
Johnzimbo	2	4	16	14	53.33
Vegasbrent	5	1	14.5	15.5	48.33
SOOPOO	4	2	13	17	43.33

Week 6 Odds

Sunday Very Early Game (must be in by 8:30 AM Sunday)
Texans +2.5 (London) Jaguars -2.5 / Texans-Jaguars Over/Under 42.5
Sunday Early Games
Bears -1.5 @ Falcons +1.5 / Bears-Falcons Over/Under 51
Ravens -5 @ Browns +5 / Ravens-Browns Over/Under 42.5
Titans +7 @ Colts -7 / Titans-Colts Over/Under 44.5
Jets +7 @ Patriots -7 / Jets-Patriots Over/Under 43.5
Saints -1.5 @ Giants +1.5 / Saints-Giants Over/Under 46
Panthers -1.5 @ Eagles +1.5 / Panthers-Eagles Over/Under 39.5
Steelers -2.5 @ Buccaneers +2.5 / Steelers-Buccaneers Over/Under 39.5
Sunday Late Games
Cardinals +12.5 @ Rams -12.5 / Cardinals-Rams Over/Under 51.5
Chargers +8.5 @ Chiefs -8.5 / Chargers-Chiefs Over/Under 42.5
Bills -4.5 @ Raiders +4.5 / Bills-Raiders Over/Under 53.5
Sunday Night
Cowboys +1.5 @ Packers -1.5 / Cowboys-Packers Over/Under 53
Monday Night
Commanders +7.5 @ 49ers -7.5 / Commanders-49ers Over/Under 50.5

Week 6 Picks

gordonm888
Panthers -1.5 * Confidence
Browns +5
Jaguars -2.5
Titans +7
Cowboys +1.5

IndyJeffrey
Bills -4.5 * Confidence
Texans-Jaguars Under 42.5
Titans +7
Panthers -1.5
Chargers +8.5

JimRockford
Falcons +1.5 * Confidence
Browns +5
Panthers -1.5
Giants +1.5
Commanders-49ers Under 50.5

Johnzimbo
Cowboys-Packers Over 53 * Confidence
Jaguars – 2.5
Panthers -1.5
Cowboys +1.5
Saints -1.5

miplet
Giants +1.5 * Confidence
Browns +5
Panthers -1.5
Titans +7
Chargers +8.5

nunbeater
Jaguars -2.5 * Confidence
Browns +5
Patriots -7
Raiders +4.5
Giants +1.5

PlayYourCardsRight
Jaguars -2.5 * Confidence
Patriots -7
Buccaneers +2.5
Bills -4.5
Packers -1.5

SOOPOO
Steelers -2.5 * Confidence
Chargers +8.5
Bills -4.5
Cowboys +1.5
Commanders +7.5

Vegasbrent
Jaguars -2.5 * Confidence
Colts -7
Patriots -7
Chiefs -8.5
Bills -4.5

Wizard
Panthers -1.5 * Confidence
Browns +5
Giants +1.5
Chargers +8.5
Commanders +7.5

God, how can the Cowboys be so bad? I thought they would be embarrassed about last week's game and would do better out of sheer pride (and from the addition of Joey Porter.) But they're down 10-0.

Also thought the Jags would have an edge by being in London for 8 days. Nope.

Quote: gordonm888

God, how can the Cowboys be so bad? I thought they would be embarrassed about last week's game and would do better out of sheer pride (and from the addition of Joey Porter.) But they're down 10-0.

Also thought the Jags would have an edge by being in London for 8 days. Nope.
link to original post

Absolutely horrible week (for me).

Results after Week 6
Corrected 10/20, 11:35 AM Eastern

Player	W6 Wins	W6 Losses	Total Wins	Total Losses	% Wins
nunbeater	2.5	3.5	23.5	12.5	65.28
miplet	3	3	22	14	61.11
Wizard	4	2	22	14	61.11
gordonm888	4	2	21	14	60
JimRockford	3	3	20	16	55.56
IndyJeffrey	2	4	19	17	52.78
PlayYourCardsRight	1.5	4.5	18.5	17.5	51.39
Johnzimbo	2	4	18	18	50
SOOPOO	3	3	16	20	44.44
Vegasbrent	1.5	4.5	16	20	44.44

Think I went 2-4, please recheck

Quote: Johnzimbo

Think I went 2-4, please recheck
link to original post

You're right. The standings have been corrected.

Dart throwing monkey is (slightly) jealous.

Total Bets: 359
Total Wins: 196
Avg Win Rate: 54.6%
Median Win%: 54.2%

That would be almost break-even after vig.

Suck more.

probably worse if you consider the confidence picks skewing results

Over the years, do the folks in this game do any better on their confidence picks than their regular picks?

My first reaction was thinking 54-ish pct. is really looking surprisingly quite good, and could be regarded as impressive if repeated over a few years or so (for a game in which it is hard to get a decent sample size), even if it wouldn't help pay the bar tab.

But then, there's a contrary argument that it doesn't account for the price. I'd think it's pretty good against the spread or total if you assume the betting lines consistently amounted to -110 vs. -110. But they could have actually been initially opened at something more like +100 vs. -120, as they often do, with the 54% winners getting booked disproportionately on the -120 sides, whether intentionally/knowingly or not, and you'd need a higher win rate to get within spitting distance of break even. More than that, there's necessarily some lag between posting the fixed immovable lines for the contest purposes and final submission of picks, right? So, is there the potential for exploiting stale lines that have moved to reflect the market which over time IMO is wiser than any supposedly 'sharp' handicapper or opening linesetter? That's what I'd prolly shoot for to whatever limited extent it might be possible.

With all that said by this spectator/heckler in the bleachers, I'm still totally pulling for the dart-throwing/coin-flipping skills of my simian primate consultant to pull out the comeback win over the total aggregate of the assembled humans at season's end with his presumed rate of 50%.

To remind all…. There have been numerous ‘stale’ lines available to the forum that would not have been available to make a real bet on. QB injured in practice on Friday means the Thursday line is off by a few points from the now bettable line. And there have been a few simple mistakes like putting wrong team as favorite or just wrong pointspread.

Give me a 54% win rate on -110 lines and I make millions. Because it’s not too difficult to find a website that will have -105. Add the ‘loyalty points’ and 54% is $$$$$$

Week 7 Odds

Sunday Very Early Game (picks must be in by 8:30 AM Eastern on Sunday)
Steelers -3.5 (Paris) Saints +3.5 / Steelers-Saints Over/Under 44.5
Sunday Early Games
49ers -2.5 @ Falcons +2.5 / 49ers-Falcons Over/Under 50
Bengals -1.5 @ Ravens +1.5 / Bengals-Ravens Over/Under 48.5
Buccaneers +3 @ Panthers -3 / Buccaneers-Panthers Over/Under 44.5
Giants +10.5 @ Texans -10.5 / Giants-Texans Over/Under 43
Colts +6.5 @ Vikings -6.5 / Colts-Vikings Over/Under 41.5
Dolphins +4.5 @ Jets -4.5 / Dolphins-Jets Over/Under 39.5
Browns -1.5 @ Titans +1.5 / Browns-Titans Over/Under 37.5
Sunday Late Games
Broncos -4 @ Cardinals +4 / Broncos-Cardinals Over/Under 43.5
Packers +3 @ Lions -3 / Packers-Lions Over/Under 53.5
Rams -4 @ Raiders +4 / Rams-Raiders Over/Under 48.5
Sunday Night
Chiefs +2.5 @ Seahawks -2.5 / Chiefs-Seahawks Over/Under 42.5
Monday Night
Cowboys -4.5 @ Eagles +4.5 / Cowboys-Eagles Over/Under 44

Week 7 Picks

gordonm888
Steelers -3.5 * Confidence
Browns -1.5
49ers -2.5
Vikings -6.5
Colts-Vikings Under 41.5

IndyJeffrey
Giants +10.5 * Confidence
Steelers-Saints Under 44.5
Browns -1.5
Broncos -4
Chiefs +2.5

JimRockford
Ravens +1.5
Browns -1.5
Raiders +4
Colts +6.5
Cardinals +4
no Confidence pick

Johnzimbo
49ers -2.5 * Confidence
Saints +3.5
Vikings-Colts Under 41.5
Seahawks -2.5
Eagles-Cowboys Over 44

miplet
Raiders +4 * Confidence
Saints +3.5
Bengals -1.5
Lions -3
Seahawks -2.5

nunbeater
Chiefs +2.5 * Confidence
Browns -1.5
Vikings -6.5
Broncos -4
Packers +3

PlayYourCardsRight
Eagles +4.5 * Confidence
49ers -2.5
Jets -4.5
Broncos -4
Lions -3

SOOPOO
Saints +3.5 * Confidence
Giants +10.5
Dolphins +4.5
Browns-1.5
Cowboys -4.5

Vegasbrent
Chiefs +2.5 * Confidence
Ravens +1.5
Vikings -6.5
Packers +3
Eagles +4.5

Wizard
Saints +3.5 * Confidence
Buccaneers +3
Dolphins +4.5
Raiders +4
Eagles +4.5