Sports betting chatter
Quote: SOOPOO. I just joined you. Looks like BetRivers?Quote: Jimmy2TimesGoing with Ryan Garcia by stoppage over Oscar Duarte at -141 Dec 2.
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It’s 12 rounds which is a plus for stoppage.
Apparently Duarte has fought inferior competition which is a plus
Me agreeing with you is a minus!
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The line is from Seneca Niagara it is my only option - I don't do any on line betting. Garcia is moving up to this weight 140 lb for the first time. He is ready to make a statement. Went 2 for 2 on the Bills-Eagles: Allen over 27.5 yards rushing and Allen more than 1.5 TDs so went with it all on the Garcia by stoppage - hope it pans out!
Interesting bet I took today. I’m getting +380 on Tiger Woods to NOT be tied for 10th or better after any round in his Hero tournament. The field is just 20, but all top golfers.
Woods hadn’t played competitively for quite a while. I can easily see him struggling. Probably 7 of the 20 are not in the top 10 after any round. So I think +380 is more because of the Woods name/legacy than the Woods present golf game. It just feels very +EV at +380.
Currently, however, I'm looking into different sites I might sign up for [I've had to ditch BetMGM] and I think the conclusion is obvious: these sites all do the same thing, they even might put it carefully into their T&Cs, so to conclude that they don't know what they are doing has got to be wrong! You can’t think that the people who run a business day in and day out, 24/7 in fact, do what they do without a reason. To you and I [well, most of us] the most important thing is to make bets that are +EV and meanwhile find our tolerance level for the variance, while it seems the sportsbook casinos take the opposite view. They can't seem to stand the variance! Odd, because it would seem they are the ones with all the money.
The only thing I can figure is, we don’t realize what management is up against. What they, the management that runs the show, don’t want to have to deal with is upper management asking “what is going on? we had a bad day!” because the favorites all won that day where the big betting was [my guess]. The old saw is the salesman who reports on how good all his prospects look to be told in reply “but what did you sell TODAY!” If you don’t think that is real, I’ve got some news for you.
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Quote: SOOPOOI will (most likely) be at Seneca Niagara tomorrow. I don’t do my sports betting there. But I wonder if they just use the BetRivers line? It was -150 on other sites. I’ll compare a few different sports bets to see.
Interesting bet I took today. I’m getting +380 on Tiger Woods to NOT be tied for 10th or better after any round in his Hero tournament. The field is just 20, but all top golfers.
Woods hadn’t played competitively for quite a while. I can easily see him struggling. Probably 7 of the 20 are not in the top 10 after any round. So I think +380 is more because of the Woods name/legacy than the Woods present golf game. It just feels very +EV at +380.
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So far so good. 10th was -1. Woods is 4 strokes behind at +3. I also got action at even money that he doesn’t finish top 5 after any round. He’s 6 strokes behind that.
I ‘think’ FD boost today is +EV. Prescott and Smith to combine for 500 passing yards. Their individual even money over/unders add up to 517.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI will (most likely) be at Seneca Niagara tomorrow. I don’t do my sports betting there. But I wonder if they just use the BetRivers line? It was -150 on other sites. I’ll compare a few different sports bets to see.
Interesting bet I took today. I’m getting +380 on Tiger Woods to NOT be tied for 10th or better after any round in his Hero tournament. The field is just 20, but all top golfers.
Woods hadn’t played competitively for quite a while. I can easily see him struggling. Probably 7 of the 20 are not in the top 10 after any round. So I think +380 is more because of the Woods name/legacy than the Woods present golf game. It just feels very +EV at +380.
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So far so good. 10th was -1. Woods is 4 strokes behind at +3. I also got action at even money that he doesn’t finish top 5 after any round. He’s 6 strokes behind that.
I ‘think’ FD boost today is +EV. Prescott and Smith to combine for 500 passing yards. Their individual even money over/unders add up to 517.
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Easy hit on FD boost. They combined for over 600 yards.
Tiger Woods bet at risk! He is -4 after 10 holes only 1 stroke behind 10th place. When I mentioned this bet to my son…. I finished the thought with…. ‘No one ever got rich betting against Tiger Woods…’
For those smart enough to fade me…. I can’t believe Steelers are favorites by more than 3 against anyone…. I’m loving the Cards +5.5.
And I’m also liking the over 34.5 in Michigan-Iowa. I think Michigan’s O is good enough to put up 34 on Iowa. Just can Iowa put up a point….?
Quote: SOOPOO
For those smart enough to fade me…. I can’t believe Steelers are favorites by more than 3 against anyone…. I’m loving the Cards +5.5.
And I’m also liking the over 34.5 in Michigan-Iowa. I think Michigan’s O is good enough to put up 34 on Iowa. Just can Iowa put up a point….?
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I agree on the Steelers. I would also lean to the Over on Michigan. Being an Iowa grad, go Hawkeyes even though I believe they have almost no chance of winning the game. I don't know what the moneyline is on the game but I think Michigan is a very good bet.
Edit: I just looked it up and I see Michigan -2400 at one book. I would lay that.
Quote: unJonI’m liking UNLV +2.5 and Louisville money line today.
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I’ll do a parlay on those.
Washington punched ticket last night to final 4.
Michigan wins and is in
FSU wins and is in
Georgia wins and is in
If Bama beats Geargia and Texas wins, Bama is better team NOW but lost to Texas. No SEC team in final 4 would have been hard to fathom pre season.
Both soccer bets hit yesterday! Getafe to be shut out. And Reims to win and over 2.5 goals. Third goal was late PK with player unnecessarily grabbing guy near the goal and throwing him to the ground….. almost like someone paid him to do so…?
I have Iowa + 22/ over 35.5 parlayed. With profit boost +530. The only thing I have going for me is Michigan doesn’t need style points. They win by 20 or 27 it’s the same result. I’ve been on the wrong side of these over/under bets when the number is very low.
Golf is good. Barring total surprise, Tiger doesn’t sniff the top 10.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked
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Quote: lilredrooster.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked
.
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1) Michigan
2) Washington
3) Texas
4) Alabama
My guess
Michigan vs Alabama (-2.5)
Washington (-1) vs Texas
These would be great matchups but this is the first year I would think there are probably eight teams that could actually win the playoff. I love the parity in college football this year.
Quote: DRichQuote: lilredrooster.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked
.
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1) Michigan
2) Washington
3) Texas
4) Alabama
My guess
Michigan vs Alabama (-2.5)
Washington (-1) vs Texas
These would be great matchups but this is the first year I would think there are probably eight teams that could actually win the playoff. I love the parity in college football this year.
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If Florida State is left out as you predict it will be the first time ever that an undefeated Power Five Champion has been passed over
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Quote: lilredrooster
If Florida State is left out as you predict it will be the first time ever that an undefeated Power Five Champion has been passed over
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Yes, it is sad for FSU, but I think when they lost their starting QB Jordan Travis it gives the committee the option to drop them. If Travis was still playing there is no way the committee would consider dropping them. If they would have blown away Louisville yesterday I also think they would have got in. In 2014 Ohio State got in with their third string QB that only played one game. The difference was that OSU won the Big Ten championship 59-0 with their third string QB.
Quote: lilredrooster.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked
.
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You also don’t mention one loss OSU. They’ll be passed over also.
Quote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked
.
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You also don’t mention one loss OSU. They’ll be passed over also.
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I think Georgia, OSU, and Oregon would all have a legitimate chance to win in this playoff if it was eight teams. Fla St if they had their QB.
It’s Michigan, Washington, Texas and either Alabama or FSU. I think the committee picks Alabama. Apparently the rule states they are supposed to pick ‘the four best teams’. No way FSU is one of the four best. The problem is I think objectively Georgia is likely in the top 4.
A lot is being made that Alabama played Texas instead of a weak team in week 1. FSU played LSU in week 1. Both are highly ranked programs.
Either SEC champ doesn’t get in, or undefeated ‘power 5’ team doesn’t get in. First (and last) time that ever happens.
Iowa is a joke. They played to lose by as few points as possible. I don’t think they were even trying to win.
What about undefeated Liberty?
Quote: DRichQuote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked
.
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You also don’t mention one loss OSU. They’ll be passed over also.
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I think Georgia, OSU, and Oregon would all have a legitimate chance to win in this playoff if it was eight teams. Fla St if they had their QB.
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Yeah this would have been a good year to start the 12 team playoffs. Oh well.
Quote: unJonQuote: DRichQuote: unJonQuote: lilredrooster.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked
.
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You also don’t mention one loss OSU. They’ll be passed over also.
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I think Georgia, OSU, and Oregon would all have a legitimate chance to win in this playoff if it was eight teams. Fla St if they had their QB.
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Yeah this would have been a good year to start the 12 team playoffs. Oh well.
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I think 12 teams is a joke. I would prefer 8 as my prediction is that a team ranked lower than 10 will NEVER win the championship.
Quote: SOOPOO
Iowa is a joke. They played to lose by as few points as possible. I don’t think they were even trying to win.
What about undefeated Liberty?
Blasphemy!!! Iowa, the Big Ten West champions, is not a joke. They are slightly above average of the 130 teams they compete against.
Here is the ridiculous part. If this was next year there would be an argument for them to be in the 12 team playoff.
Fortunately, us Iowa alumni still have wrestling and women's basketball to root for.
is it fair for Alabama to be picked over Georgia because they beat them by 3 points at home
the rule of thumb I believe is the home team is considered to have a 3 point advantage all other things being equal
I took a look at the total scores for the entire season and it looks like Georgia crushed its opponents by more than Bama did
Alabama beat Arkansas by just 3 - and beat Auburn by just 3 - neither of those teams are ranked in the top 25
I think Bama will be picked over Georgia but I don't think it's necessarily fair or right
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Quote: lilredrooster.
I think Bama will be picked over Georgia but I don't think it's necessarily fair or right
Although I think Georgia is a slightly better team than Alabama, there is no fair way to pick the best teams unless all teams play all common opponents.
Quote: lilredrooster.
is it fair for Alabama to be picked over Georgia because they beat them by 3 points at home
the rule of thumb I believe is the home team is considered to have a 3 point advantage all other things being equal
I took a look at the total scores for the entire season and it looks like Georgia crushed its opponents by more than Bama did
Alabama beat Arkansas by just 3 - and beat Auburn by just 3 - neither of those teams are ranked in the top 25
I think Bama will be picked over Georgia but I don't think it's necessarily fair or right
.
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It wasn’t a home game. Both teams had equal access to tickets.
I am STUNNED that I was able to bet on who will be in the final 4. No betting on Michigan or Washington. But I was able to get money on Georgia NO at -4000. That’s 2.5% return. I can’t see any way they can let Georgia in.
Also got money on Texas YES at -350. How could they put Alabama in over Texas? They can put Alabama in over FSU, but not Texas. Texas put final stamp on their ticket with convincing performance yesterday.
My son follows more closely than I do. He is convinced it’s a lock that FSU is in and Alabama out. You can get Alabama NO at -145. He wouldn’t put his money where his mouth is….
You can also bet on exact seedlings
Quote: SOOPOO
You can also bet on exact seedlings
What is the favorite? I'm guessing Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOO
You can also bet on exact seedlings
What is the favorite? I'm guessing Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama.
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Mich Wash Texas FSU is the favorite.
Yours is a close second.
Since I posted a little while ago Texas is now -800. I got them at -350.
I think there are ‘leaks’.
Quote: DRich
What is the favorite? I'm guessing Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama.
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and that's who is in
the ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips is very unhappy about FSU not getting in
he said:
"Their exclusion calls into question the selection process and whether the Committee's own guidelines were followed.
Florida State deserved better.
College football deserved better."
FSU consolation prize - beating Georgia in the Orange Bowl__________________(-:\
I'd love to see FSU play only their 2nd stringers in the Orange Bowl as a way of giving the finger to the Committee - but that won't happen
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/39034100/undefeated-florida-state-left-college-football-playoff
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GO ARMY, BEAT NAVY!
I am going to make a -EV bet today. 76ers Wizards over 239.5. I think (probably wrong?) that the most important predictor of o/u in NBA games is the total the two teams hit the last time they played. They totaled 276 last matchup.
I Believe this because the most important factor in o/u appears to be pace of play, NOT skill of the shooters. Decent teams like Knicks/Cavs/Raptors rely more on a slow ‘half court’ offense while Pacers/Hawks just fly down the court, resulting in far more chances for both teams to score.
A -EV bet or just -110 or so, that you think the oddsmaker is wrong on, thus +EV if you are right?Quote: SOOPOOI am going to make a -EV bet today.
Quote: odiousgambitA -EV bet or just -110 or so, that you think the oddsmaker is wrong on, thus +EV if you are right?Quote: SOOPOOI am going to make a -EV bet today.
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It’s not an easy answer. Why do I think my ‘analysis’ is actually better than the people who do it for a living? As I’ve said many times, on straight -110 bets I feel like I’m ever so slightly UNDER 50%! But I’m willing to ‘guess’ that I’m right this time. Just got my $$ in at over 239 on Caesars.
So to directly answer your question, no, I do not think I have an actual +EV bet, like I did on the anti-Tiger Woods bet last weekend. I’m still stunned I got +380.
