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Jimmy2Times
Jimmy2Times
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November 29th, 2023 at 1:03:51 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Jimmy2Times

Going with Ryan Garcia by stoppage over Oscar Duarte at -141 Dec 2.
link to original post

. I just joined you. Looks like BetRivers?

It’s 12 rounds which is a plus for stoppage.
Apparently Duarte has fought inferior competition which is a plus
Me agreeing with you is a minus!
link to original post



The line is from Seneca Niagara it is my only option - I don't do any on line betting. Garcia is moving up to this weight 140 lb for the first time. He is ready to make a statement. Went 2 for 2 on the Bills-Eagles: Allen over 27.5 yards rushing and Allen more than 1.5 TDs so went with it all on the Garcia by stoppage - hope it pans out!
I 'm gonna go get the papers, get the papers.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 29th, 2023 at 7:01:35 PM permalink
I will (most likely) be at Seneca Niagara tomorrow. I don’t do my sports betting there. But I wonder if they just use the BetRivers line? It was -150 on other sites. I’ll compare a few different sports bets to see.

Interesting bet I took today. I’m getting +380 on Tiger Woods to NOT be tied for 10th or better after any round in his Hero tournament. The field is just 20, but all top golfers.
Woods hadn’t played competitively for quite a while. I can easily see him struggling. Probably 7 of the 20 are not in the top 10 after any round. So I think +380 is more because of the Woods name/legacy than the Woods present golf game. It just feels very +EV at +380.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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November 30th, 2023 at 4:25:52 AM permalink
I have been influenced by those who say the best thing is to not talk about +EV opportunities lest they disappear, and for a while shut up about the glaring vulnerability that online sports gambling sites, at least, so consistently provide. This occurred to me again upthread, in the argument about what kind of bets are best to make.

Currently, however, I'm looking into different sites I might sign up for [I've had to ditch BetMGM] and I think the conclusion is obvious: these sites all do the same thing, they even might put it carefully into their T&Cs, so to conclude that they don't know what they are doing has got to be wrong! You can’t think that the people who run a business day in and day out, 24/7 in fact, do what they do without a reason. To you and I [well, most of us] the most important thing is to make bets that are +EV and meanwhile find our tolerance level for the variance, while it seems the sportsbook casinos take the opposite view. They can't seem to stand the variance! Odd, because it would seem they are the ones with all the money.

The only thing I can figure is, we don’t realize what management is up against. What they, the management that runs the show, don’t want to have to deal with is upper management asking “what is going on? we had a bad day!” because the favorites all won that day where the big betting was [my guess]. The old saw is the salesman who reports on how good all his prospects look to be told in reply “but what did you sell TODAY!” If you don’t think that is real, I’ve got some news for you.

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First Bet Safety Net will apply to your first straight bet, parlay, Same Game Parlay or Same Game Parlay+ placed after claiming the offer. If you place two or more bets on the same bet slip, your qualifying bet will be deemed to be the one which is first on the bet slip.

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Your Bonus Bets will normally be available to use within one hour of your qualifying bet being settled, if you are eligible for a refund, and will be held in your Bonus Bets balance.

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Available to new customers only. A deposit (minimum $10) is required to participate in this offer. You must claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account. Once released, your Bonus Bets will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable.

Place qualifying bets of $5 or more to get $150 in Bonus Bets. Your qualifying bets must settle within 30 days of claiming the offer. Only qualifying bets placed and settled after claiming the offer will count towards releasing your Bonus Bets.

Bets placed must meet certain conditions to count:

Must contain at least one selection at odds of -500 or greater. Only the largest cumulative wager on an individual selection within a market/fixture combination (either pre-game or Live In Game) will count towards the settled bets requirement. Where a bet has been partially Cashed Out, only the remaining active wager will count. Where a bet has been edited using our Edit Bet feature, only the new wager on the new bet will count. Fully Cashed Out, event-specific Bonus Bets placed by selecting ‘Use Bonus Bet’ from the bet slip, Live In Game bets which are settled as a push and bets deemed no action do not count. [it goes on, I'll stop here]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 30th, 2023 at 1:57:47 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I will (most likely) be at Seneca Niagara tomorrow. I don’t do my sports betting there. But I wonder if they just use the BetRivers line? It was -150 on other sites. I’ll compare a few different sports bets to see.

Interesting bet I took today. I’m getting +380 on Tiger Woods to NOT be tied for 10th or better after any round in his Hero tournament. The field is just 20, but all top golfers.
Woods hadn’t played competitively for quite a while. I can easily see him struggling. Probably 7 of the 20 are not in the top 10 after any round. So I think +380 is more because of the Woods name/legacy than the Woods present golf game. It just feels very +EV at +380.
link to original post



So far so good. 10th was -1. Woods is 4 strokes behind at +3. I also got action at even money that he doesn’t finish top 5 after any round. He’s 6 strokes behind that.

I ‘think’ FD boost today is +EV. Prescott and Smith to combine for 500 passing yards. Their individual even money over/unders add up to 517.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 1st, 2023 at 10:21:26 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

I will (most likely) be at Seneca Niagara tomorrow. I don’t do my sports betting there. But I wonder if they just use the BetRivers line? It was -150 on other sites. I’ll compare a few different sports bets to see.

Interesting bet I took today. I’m getting +380 on Tiger Woods to NOT be tied for 10th or better after any round in his Hero tournament. The field is just 20, but all top golfers.
Woods hadn’t played competitively for quite a while. I can easily see him struggling. Probably 7 of the 20 are not in the top 10 after any round. So I think +380 is more because of the Woods name/legacy than the Woods present golf game. It just feels very +EV at +380.
link to original post



So far so good. 10th was -1. Woods is 4 strokes behind at +3. I also got action at even money that he doesn’t finish top 5 after any round. He’s 6 strokes behind that.

I ‘think’ FD boost today is +EV. Prescott and Smith to combine for 500 passing yards. Their individual even money over/unders add up to 517.
link to original post



Easy hit on FD boost. They combined for over 600 yards.

Tiger Woods bet at risk! He is -4 after 10 holes only 1 stroke behind 10th place. When I mentioned this bet to my son…. I finished the thought with…. ‘No one ever got rich betting against Tiger Woods…’

For those smart enough to fade me…. I can’t believe Steelers are favorites by more than 3 against anyone…. I’m loving the Cards +5.5.

And I’m also liking the over 34.5 in Michigan-Iowa. I think Michigan’s O is good enough to put up 34 on Iowa. Just can Iowa put up a point….?
DRich
DRich
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December 1st, 2023 at 7:13:21 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


For those smart enough to fade me…. I can’t believe Steelers are favorites by more than 3 against anyone…. I’m loving the Cards +5.5.

And I’m also liking the over 34.5 in Michigan-Iowa. I think Michigan’s O is good enough to put up 34 on Iowa. Just can Iowa put up a point….?
link to original post



I agree on the Steelers. I would also lean to the Over on Michigan. Being an Iowa grad, go Hawkeyes even though I believe they have almost no chance of winning the game. I don't know what the moneyline is on the game but I think Michigan is a very good bet.

Edit: I just looked it up and I see Michigan -2400 at one book. I would lay that.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
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December 2nd, 2023 at 4:18:32 AM permalink
I’m liking UNLV +2.5 and Louisville money line today.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 2nd, 2023 at 4:31:43 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I’m liking UNLV +2.5 and Louisville money line today.
link to original post



I’ll do a parlay on those.

Washington punched ticket last night to final 4.
Michigan wins and is in
FSU wins and is in
Georgia wins and is in

If Bama beats Geargia and Texas wins, Bama is better team NOW but lost to Texas. No SEC team in final 4 would have been hard to fathom pre season.

Both soccer bets hit yesterday! Getafe to be shut out. And Reims to win and over 2.5 goals. Third goal was late PK with player unnecessarily grabbing guy near the goal and throwing him to the ground….. almost like someone paid him to do so…?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 2nd, 2023 at 3:16:52 PM permalink
Soccer has been great. Today’s football….. not so much.

I have Iowa + 22/ over 35.5 parlayed. With profit boost +530. The only thing I have going for me is Michigan doesn’t need style points. They win by 20 or 27 it’s the same result. I’ve been on the wrong side of these over/under bets when the number is very low.

Golf is good. Barring total surprise, Tiger doesn’t sniff the top 10.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 3rd, 2023 at 4:03:24 AM permalink
.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
DRich
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December 3rd, 2023 at 4:52:59 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked

.
link to original post



1) Michigan
2) Washington
3) Texas
4) Alabama

My guess
Michigan vs Alabama (-2.5)
Washington (-1) vs Texas

These would be great matchups but this is the first year I would think there are probably eight teams that could actually win the playoff. I love the parity in college football this year.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 3rd, 2023 at 5:00:27 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: lilredrooster

.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked

.
link to original post



1) Michigan
2) Washington
3) Texas
4) Alabama

My guess
Michigan vs Alabama (-2.5)
Washington (-1) vs Texas

These would be great matchups but this is the first year I would think there are probably eight teams that could actually win the playoff. I love the parity in college football this year.
link to original post


If Florida State is left out as you predict it will be the first time ever that an undefeated Power Five Champion has been passed over

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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December 3rd, 2023 at 5:08:04 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster


If Florida State is left out as you predict it will be the first time ever that an undefeated Power Five Champion has been passed over

.



Yes, it is sad for FSU, but I think when they lost their starting QB Jordan Travis it gives the committee the option to drop them. If Travis was still playing there is no way the committee would consider dropping them. If they would have blown away Louisville yesterday I also think they would have got in. In 2014 Ohio State got in with their third string QB that only played one game. The difference was that OSU won the Big Ten championship 59-0 with their third string QB.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
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December 3rd, 2023 at 5:14:31 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked

.
link to original post



You also don’t mention one loss OSU. They’ll be passed over also.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
DRich
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December 3rd, 2023 at 5:18:14 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked

.
link to original post



You also don’t mention one loss OSU. They’ll be passed over also.
link to original post



I think Georgia, OSU, and Oregon would all have a legitimate chance to win in this playoff if it was eight teams. Fla St if they had their QB.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 3rd, 2023 at 5:22:15 AM permalink
Georgia is not in the conversation.

It’s Michigan, Washington, Texas and either Alabama or FSU. I think the committee picks Alabama. Apparently the rule states they are supposed to pick ‘the four best teams’. No way FSU is one of the four best. The problem is I think objectively Georgia is likely in the top 4.
A lot is being made that Alabama played Texas instead of a weak team in week 1. FSU played LSU in week 1. Both are highly ranked programs.

Either SEC champ doesn’t get in, or undefeated ‘power 5’ team doesn’t get in. First (and last) time that ever happens.

Iowa is a joke. They played to lose by as few points as possible. I don’t think they were even trying to win.

What about undefeated Liberty?
unJon
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December 3rd, 2023 at 5:23:03 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked

.
link to original post



You also don’t mention one loss OSU. They’ll be passed over also.
link to original post



I think Georgia, OSU, and Oregon would all have a legitimate chance to win in this playoff if it was eight teams. Fla St if they had their QB.
link to original post



Yeah this would have been a good year to start the 12 team playoffs. Oh well.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
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December 3rd, 2023 at 5:55:56 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: DRich

Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

.
the playoff picture is more complicated now since Alabama beat Georgia
Alabama, Georgia, and Texas have one loss
Michigan, Washington and Florida State are undefeated
there is some speculation that Florida State could be left out even though they are undefeated
who will get picked will be announced today at noon
will feel very rough for the 2 who don't get picked

.
link to original post



You also don’t mention one loss OSU. They’ll be passed over also.
link to original post



I think Georgia, OSU, and Oregon would all have a legitimate chance to win in this playoff if it was eight teams. Fla St if they had their QB.
link to original post



Yeah this would have been a good year to start the 12 team playoffs. Oh well.
link to original post



I think 12 teams is a joke. I would prefer 8 as my prediction is that a team ranked lower than 10 will NEVER win the championship.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
DRich
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December 3rd, 2023 at 5:58:55 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Iowa is a joke. They played to lose by as few points as possible. I don’t think they were even trying to win.

What about undefeated Liberty?



Blasphemy!!! Iowa, the Big Ten West champions, is not a joke. They are slightly above average of the 130 teams they compete against.

Here is the ridiculous part. If this was next year there would be an argument for them to be in the 12 team playoff.

Fortunately, us Iowa alumni still have wrestling and women's basketball to root for.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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December 3rd, 2023 at 6:28:06 AM permalink
.
is it fair for Alabama to be picked over Georgia because they beat them by 3 points at home
the rule of thumb I believe is the home team is considered to have a 3 point advantage all other things being equal
I took a look at the total scores for the entire season and it looks like Georgia crushed its opponents by more than Bama did
Alabama beat Arkansas by just 3 - and beat Auburn by just 3 - neither of those teams are ranked in the top 25

I think Bama will be picked over Georgia but I don't think it's necessarily fair or right

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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December 3rd, 2023 at 6:34:01 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.

I think Bama will be picked over Georgia but I don't think it's necessarily fair or right



Although I think Georgia is a slightly better team than Alabama, there is no fair way to pick the best teams unless all teams play all common opponents.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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December 3rd, 2023 at 7:49:46 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
is it fair for Alabama to be picked over Georgia because they beat them by 3 points at home
the rule of thumb I believe is the home team is considered to have a 3 point advantage all other things being equal
I took a look at the total scores for the entire season and it looks like Georgia crushed its opponents by more than Bama did
Alabama beat Arkansas by just 3 - and beat Auburn by just 3 - neither of those teams are ranked in the top 25

I think Bama will be picked over Georgia but I don't think it's necessarily fair or right

.
link to original post



It wasn’t a home game. Both teams had equal access to tickets.

I am STUNNED that I was able to bet on who will be in the final 4. No betting on Michigan or Washington. But I was able to get money on Georgia NO at -4000. That’s 2.5% return. I can’t see any way they can let Georgia in.
Also got money on Texas YES at -350. How could they put Alabama in over Texas? They can put Alabama in over FSU, but not Texas. Texas put final stamp on their ticket with convincing performance yesterday.
My son follows more closely than I do. He is convinced it’s a lock that FSU is in and Alabama out. You can get Alabama NO at -145. He wouldn’t put his money where his mouth is….

You can also bet on exact seedlings
DRich
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December 3rd, 2023 at 8:00:38 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


You can also bet on exact seedlings



What is the favorite? I'm guessing Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 3rd, 2023 at 8:51:42 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


You can also bet on exact seedlings



What is the favorite? I'm guessing Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama.
link to original post



Mich Wash Texas FSU is the favorite.

Yours is a close second.


Since I posted a little while ago Texas is now -800. I got them at -350.

I think there are ‘leaks’.
lilredrooster
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December 3rd, 2023 at 10:11:03 AM permalink
Quote: DRich


What is the favorite? I'm guessing Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama.
link to original post


and that's who is in
the ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips is very unhappy about FSU not getting in
he said:
"Their exclusion calls into question the selection process and whether the Committee's own guidelines were followed.
Florida State deserved better.
College football deserved better."

FSU consolation prize - beating Georgia in the Orange Bowl__________________(-:\

I'd love to see FSU play only their 2nd stringers in the Orange Bowl as a way of giving the finger to the Committee - but that won't happen


https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/39034100/undefeated-florida-state-left-college-football-playoff

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 3, 2023
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
AZDuffman
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December 3rd, 2023 at 3:58:52 PM permalink
Army-Navy over under 28. Thoughts?

GO ARMY, BEAT NAVY!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
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December 6th, 2023 at 6:57:31 AM permalink
0 for yesterday…. Oh well….lost two big parlays each by 1/2 point on just one leg…

I am going to make a -EV bet today. 76ers Wizards over 239.5. I think (probably wrong?) that the most important predictor of o/u in NBA games is the total the two teams hit the last time they played. They totaled 276 last matchup.
I Believe this because the most important factor in o/u appears to be pace of play, NOT skill of the shooters. Decent teams like Knicks/Cavs/Raptors rely more on a slow ‘half court’ offense while Pacers/Hawks just fly down the court, resulting in far more chances for both teams to score.
odiousgambit
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December 6th, 2023 at 7:19:53 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am going to make a -EV bet today.

A -EV bet or just -110 or so, that you think the oddsmaker is wrong on, thus +EV if you are right?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 6th, 2023 at 7:38:28 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

I am going to make a -EV bet today.

A -EV bet or just -110 or so, that you think the oddsmaker is wrong on, thus +EV if you are right?
link to original post



It’s not an easy answer. Why do I think my ‘analysis’ is actually better than the people who do it for a living? As I’ve said many times, on straight -110 bets I feel like I’m ever so slightly UNDER 50%! But I’m willing to ‘guess’ that I’m right this time. Just got my $$ in at over 239 on Caesars.

So to directly answer your question, no, I do not think I have an actual +EV bet, like I did on the anti-Tiger Woods bet last weekend. I’m still stunned I got +380.
SOOPOO
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December 6th, 2023 at 6:37:08 PM permalink
Over 239 hit. Total was 257.

I can’t fool myself into thinking I actually had a +EV bet….

(Can I?)
SOOPOO
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December 7th, 2023 at 9:46:57 AM permalink
(I think) today Caesars has +EV boost. Usually their pre made boosts are -EV, just less so than if you get them unboosted.
Antetokounmpo and James both to score 25. Regular o/u on Antetokounmpo is 34.5, for James 27.5. It’s +100.
These are semifinal ‘playoff’ games. I expect the stars to play more minutes than usual. I can’t see any non injury way Antetokounmpo gets less than 25, especially against the fast pace Pacers. James o/u at 27.5 seems about right.
Caesars is limiting me to $50 on this bet.

I was 3/6 on heavily boosted 2 leg parlays yesterday. (Expected was1.5). I used a nickel to coin flip each pick. It’s even more +EV than you think. I got the nickel for free in the mail with three others from some charity. It also came with a $2.50 check which I didn’t cash. But I’m keeping the 4 nickels.
DRich
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December 7th, 2023 at 10:39:04 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

(I think) today Caesars has +EV boost. Usually their pre made boosts are -EV, just less so than if you get them unboosted.
Antetokounmpo and James both to score 25. Regular o/u on Antetokounmpo is 34.5, for James 27.5. It’s +100.
These are semifinal ‘playoff’ games. I expect the stars to play more minutes than usual. I can’t see any non injury way Antetokounmpo gets less than 25, especially against the fast pace Pacers. James o/u at 27.5 seems about right.
Caesars is limiting me to $50 on this bet.

I was 3/6 on heavily boosted 2 leg parlays yesterday. (Expected was1.5). I used a nickel to coin flip each pick. It’s even more +EV than you think. I got the nickel for free in the mail with three others from some charity. It also came with a $2.50 check which I didn’t cash. But I’m keeping the 4 nickels.
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James playing in Las Vegas may give him some extra incentive. He has really been hyping this tournament and saying how important it is to him. It is assumed that he will be part of the Vegas NBA ownership when he retires.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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December 8th, 2023 at 6:09:27 AM permalink
Soopoo, good parlay. I saw James had 30 points while only playing 21 minutes.
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DRich
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December 8th, 2023 at 6:10:42 AM permalink
Online sports betting legal in Florida as of yesterday. I believe at this point it is only Hard Rock casino but hopefully by next year we will get some more options.
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AxelWolf
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December 8th, 2023 at 7:48:11 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Online sports betting legal in Florida as of yesterday. I believe at this point it is only Hard Rock casino but hopefully by next year we will get some more options.
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Win or get up to $100 back
You get the amount you bet back as a Bonus Bet.🤔🤔🤔
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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December 8th, 2023 at 10:55:01 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: DRich

Online sports betting legal in Florida as of yesterday. I believe at this point it is only Hard Rock casino but hopefully by next year we will get some more options.
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Win or get up to $100 back
You get the amount you bet back as a Bonus Bet.🤔🤔🤔
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That’s perhaps the weakest sign up offer I’ve seen.

I’ve signed up in NY of course. I assume like other states I won’t be able to bet in my NY accounts when there.

But good to know in case I ever pull the trigger and move to Florida full time.

I loved the Antetokounmpo / James parlay. In one way I got pretty lucky. The game was over essentially midway through third quarter. Sometimes the star (James) had a great game but might have had more assists than points. And not played the final quarter and a half. It just as easily could have been Antetokounmpo paired with Davis, and Davis didn’t make the number mostly because of not playing last quarter plus.

I’ve been making $$ by using -1.5 hockey lines. Getting +200 and better on evenish games. Parlaying with another -110 bet then using 50% boost. Oilers last night was no sweat. Up 4-0 early.

Doncic had triple double at halftime. Another blowout. He barely had any points/rebounds/assists in the second half…. Not sure how many (few) minutes he played.

My bet that you all should probably fade…. I thought Jets would be +500 or so against Texans. They are admitting they have no competent QB. And Stroud is deservedly in MVP conversation. But I can get Texans at only -170??!!
WHAT AM I MISSING?!?

I’m using that bet in a bunch of my parlays.

Loved game last night. I think I’ve gone against Pittsburgh a few times recently. BY FAR most overrated team in league. That they were more than FG favorite over ANYONE is ridiculous. The over 30.5 was cashed by halftime! Good parlay!
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December 10th, 2023 at 7:32:19 AM permalink
Today watching soccer. Fulham up 3-0 a minute or two before halftime. Able to bet on Fulham laying 40-1. I call that 2.5% free money. Checked a minute later and it is halftime but now would have to lay 200-1. I think the 40-1 was +EV.

My ‘I think the books are wrong’ bet today is ‘Rams to score in both halves’ at -250. They scored in both halves 10/12 games. And I think Stafford may have been out the games they didn’t.
DRich
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December 10th, 2023 at 2:54:23 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



That’s perhaps the weakest sign up offer I’ve seen.



Simple reason, there is no competition.
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December 10th, 2023 at 8:41:46 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Today watching soccer. Fulham up 3-0 a minute or two before halftime. Able to bet on Fulham laying 40-1. I call that 2.5% free money. Checked a minute later and it is halftime but now would have to lay 200-1. I think the 40-1 was +EV.

My ‘I think the books are wrong’ bet today is ‘Rams to score in both halves’ at -250. They scored in both halves 10/12 games. And I think Stafford may have been out the games they didn’t.
link to original post



Both those hit. Rams scored early in both halves.

My regular picks were abysmal. Used Texans or Lions in most of my bets. No doubt I should keep coin flipping rather than thinking I can handicap NFL games win/loss/pointspread successfully. Worst loss was parlay needing Swift to get 40 yards. He ended up with 39…..

I have Giants + points and Devito to run for a bunch tomorrow. For those that want to fade me!
Mental
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December 11th, 2023 at 7:13:28 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

Today watching soccer. Fulham up 3-0 a minute or two before halftime. Able to bet on Fulham laying 40-1. I call that 2.5% free money. Checked a minute later and it is halftime but now would have to lay 200-1. I think the 40-1 was +EV.

My ‘I think the books are wrong’ bet today is ‘Rams to score in both halves’ at -250. They scored in both halves 10/12 games. And I think Stafford may have been out the games they didn’t.
link to original post



Both those hit. Rams scored early in both halves.

My regular picks were abysmal. Used Texans or Lions in most of my bets. No doubt I should keep coin flipping rather than thinking I can handicap NFL games win/loss/pointspread successfully. Worst loss was parlay needing Swift to get 40 yards. He ended up with 39…..

I have Giants + points and Devito to run for a bunch tomorrow. For those that want to fade me!
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At least you did not bet the over in the Viking/Raiders game! What were the odds for a total under 3.5?

Get ready to write off those bets when the Packers show the Giants some tough Love.
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December 11th, 2023 at 8:22:07 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: SOOPOO

Today watching soccer. Fulham up 3-0 a minute or two before halftime. Able to bet on Fulham laying 40-1. I call that 2.5% free money. Checked a minute later and it is halftime but now would have to lay 200-1. I think the 40-1 was +EV.

My ‘I think the books are wrong’ bet today is ‘Rams to score in both halves’ at -250. They scored in both halves 10/12 games. And I think Stafford may have been out the games they didn’t.
link to original post



Both those hit. Rams scored early in both halves.

My regular picks were abysmal. Used Texans or Lions in most of my bets. No doubt I should keep coin flipping rather than thinking I can handicap NFL games win/loss/pointspread successfully. Worst loss was parlay needing Swift to get 40 yards. He ended up with 39…..

I have Giants + points and Devito to run for a bunch tomorrow. For those that want to fade me!
link to original post

At least you did not bet the over in the Viking/Raiders game! What were the odds for a total under 3.5?

Get ready to write off those bets when the Packers show the Giants some tough Love.
link to original post



I just checked. I have one parlay with Packers-6.5. One with Giants +6.5. Both with under 36.5. So now I’m rooting for a slogfest. I have a few different iterations needing Devito over rushing.

As far as your Packers, they really do look pretty good. Love looks generally competent and getting better. Other than losing in the PR battle, the Packers robbed the Jets.

I’d bet real $$$ on Love having more passing yards than Rodgers next season.
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December 11th, 2023 at 10:22:35 AM permalink
This is a DK promo: "make your prediction of the outcome of the Ravens vs. Jaguars game on 12/17! If you predict correctly, split $1,000,000 with players who also chose correctly."

I took the Jaguars in Regulation because I think I will get a larger proportion of the prize pool compared to picking Ravens in Regulation. However, I wonder if the Overtime option was a higher EV choice. This is basically a blind parimutuel pool. If a lot of players choose overtime, then Overtime will be a big underlay.

My thinking is that most players will pick the favored Ravens. Some will go for the big prize by picking Overtime. The third option has nothing going for it, so will be overlayed.
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SOOPOO
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December 11th, 2023 at 11:41:08 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

This is a DK promo: "make your prediction of the outcome of the Ravens vs. Jaguars game on 12/17! If you predict correctly, split $1,000,000 with players who also chose correctly."

I took the Jaguars in Regulation because I think I will get a larger proportion of the prize pool compared to picking Ravens in Regulation. However, I wonder if the Overtime option was a higher EV choice. This is basically a blind parimutuel pool. If a lot of players choose overtime, then Overtime will be a big underlay.

My thinking is that most players will pick the favored Ravens. Some will go for the big prize by picking Overtime. The third option has nothing going for it, so will be overlayed.
link to original post



Can you pick tie? Or just the four options of
Ravens regulation
Ravens OT
Jaguars regulation
Jaguars OT

I of course do not see that on my ap…..

Since you really have no way to know how many actually pick which option, just go with the winner, which will be Ravens in regulation. Makes sense?
Mental
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December 11th, 2023 at 11:57:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Mental

This is a DK promo: "make your prediction of the outcome of the Ravens vs. Jaguars game on 12/17! If you predict correctly, split $1,000,000 with players who also chose correctly."

I took the Jaguars in Regulation because I think I will get a larger proportion of the prize pool compared to picking Ravens in Regulation. However, I wonder if the Overtime option was a higher EV choice. This is basically a blind parimutuel pool. If a lot of players choose overtime, then Overtime will be a big underlay.

My thinking is that most players will pick the favored Ravens. Some will go for the big prize by picking Overtime. The third option has nothing going for it, so will be overlayed.
link to original post



Can you pick tie? Or just the four options of
Ravens regulation
Ravens OT
Jaguars regulation
Jaguars OT

I of course do not see that on my ap…..

Since you really have no way to know how many actually pick which option, just go with the winner, which will be Ravens in regulation. Makes sense?
link to original post

Quote: DK

If you predict the correct outcome of the game (whether Baltimore wins in regulation, Jacksonville wins in regulation, or the game goes to overtime), you will be manually credited a share of $1,000,000 prize pool split between players who also predicted correctly. The payout will be done on December 18, 2023.

Since I 'have no way to know how many actually pick which option', I can add value to the promo by guessing correctly which of the three choices will be underbet. It is inconceivable that all three proportions will reflect the true odds. The uncertainty of the situation is what allows me to gain value. Uncertainty is definitely not the reason to go with the favorite. There may be some other argument to pick the favorite, but my gut tells me the favorite will be heavily overbet.
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SOOPOO
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December 11th, 2023 at 2:16:14 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Mental

This is a DK promo: "make your prediction of the outcome of the Ravens vs. Jaguars game on 12/17! If you predict correctly, split $1,000,000 with players who also chose correctly."

I took the Jaguars in Regulation because I think I will get a larger proportion of the prize pool compared to picking Ravens in Regulation. However, I wonder if the Overtime option was a higher EV choice. This is basically a blind parimutuel pool. If a lot of players choose overtime, then Overtime will be a big underlay.

My thinking is that most players will pick the favored Ravens. Some will go for the big prize by picking Overtime. The third option has nothing going for it, so will be overlayed.
link to original post



Can you pick tie? Or just the four options of
Ravens regulation
Ravens OT
Jaguars regulation
Jaguars OT

I of course do not see that on my ap…..

Since you really have no way to know how many actually pick which option, just go with the winner, which will be Ravens in regulation. Makes sense?
link to original post

Quote: DK

If you predict the correct outcome of the game (whether Baltimore wins in regulation, Jacksonville wins in regulation, or the game goes to overtime), you will be manually credited a share of $1,000,000 prize pool split between players who also predicted correctly. The payout will be done on December 18, 2023.

Since I 'have no way to know how many actually pick which option', I can add value to the promo by guessing correctly which of the three choices will be underbet. It is inconceivable that all three proportions will reflect the true odds. The uncertainty of the situation is what allows me to gain value. Uncertainty is definitely not the reason to go with the favorite. There may be some other argument to pick the favorite, but my gut tells me the favorite will be heavily overbet.
link to original post



Of course. I was jesting that ‘I know’ which team will win.

My gravy train is now turning into a gravy bowl. Just tried to get my usual $50 bet on a +EV FanDuel boost….. was limited to $20.

I can’t bet on NFL MVP, but if I could I like Prescott at + odds.
SOOPOO
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December 12th, 2023 at 3:10:14 PM permalink
BetRivers has been down now for a day and a half.
Many thoughts???!!!?!?

What if they have lost ALL account info?
(I do not have separate records of anything other than via their app)

What happens to any profit boosts/free bets that are supposed to expire today? As a reminder, I ‘paid’ for them by making specific bets which in and of themselves were -EV.

How long can they legally keep my money with me having NO access to withdrawing it?

I get emails from them all the time about this or that offer or promo. Shouldn’t they at least send a bland generic email out to all customers? Or do they not even have safe access to that information?
Mental
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December 12th, 2023 at 4:27:03 PM permalink
From which state are you trying to access BetRivers? I have been playing on the casino and I just checked the Sportsbook. I don't doubt that the situation is very frustrating for you, but it does not seem to be nationwide.
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SOOPOO
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December 12th, 2023 at 4:39:26 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

From which state are you trying to access BetRivers? I have been playing on the casino and I just checked the Sportsbook. I don't doubt that the situation is very frustrating for you, but it does not seem to be nationwide.
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NY. Interesting. I guess I’m happy it’s just NY. Still not fixed.
Mental
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December 12th, 2023 at 4:52:06 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I have Giants + points and Devito to run for a bunch tomorrow. For those that want to fade me!
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Nice picks! I assume DeVito's 71 yards on 10 carries covered your number.
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December 12th, 2023 at 5:03:54 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: SOOPOO

I have Giants + points and Devito to run for a bunch tomorrow. For those that want to fade me!
link to original post

Nice picks! I assume DeVito's 71 yards on 10 carries covered your number.
link to original post



That one also included under total so lost. I did have one over 200 total for Devito run plus pass and a TD pass that hit.

My ridiculously lucky win was the FandDuel bet that they now limited me to $20 instead of $50. Achane/Barkley/Henry each to get 50 yards from scrimmage. Achane and Barkley easily hit. But Henry was at 48 when he got pulled towards end of game because Titans were throwing on every down. They use a different back in obvious pass situations. But they get ball down to 3 yard line…. put Henry in…. He has 3 yard TD run
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