Sports betting chatter

Quote: SOOPOO

So as usual I have a bunch of bets on France Morocco. In summary, I make money unless there are exactly 8 corner kicks. 30 minutes into the game there were ZERO. By halftime 4…
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Hopefully that was a good win for you. Only 5 corners.

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

So as usual I have a bunch of bets on France Morocco. In summary, I make money unless there are exactly 8 corner kicks. 30 minutes into the game there were ZERO. By halftime 4…
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Hopefully that was a good win for you. Only 5 corners.
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It was. I had +150 on under 7.5 corners. Which in addition got me a free bet. Which I used to win (mid game) on Mbappe less than 1.5 SOG.
Would have won more as had 3 leg parlay which included over 8.5 corners. But 8 would have sunk them all.
Reminding you, these are not big bets. Total win was around $50. But I am having fun!

Just made Gold on DK. They gave me $100 as a reward. Just need 1x turnover which is irrelevant for me. Have been getting free crowns each week, worth betweenn$2 and $5 per week. That’s another $175 a year or so. I like free money.

So all these sites have free pick’em games. I just won the DraftKings recent soccer one! There were 8 questions. Basically picked both Argentina and France to shut out the weaker opposition. Argentina over 2.5 goals. France under 2.5 goals. So I was 8/8. Total prize pool was I think $5k. I won….. $12.34. A separate one I was 7/8. Won $0.34! Add em up and that’s 3 gallons of gas! 89 octane.

Today the ‘Lions boost’ on MGM was +290 on Knicks to win by 1-10 points. They were just mild underdogs (4 points) so it seemed like a very +EV bet. Knicks were up by 2 with like a minute left in overtime. The went on a scoring run hitting two clutch 3 pointers. Up 9 when they get the ball with 24 seconds to go….. Bulls let them run the clock out mercifully. There are teams that would have fouled them putting losing by 11 in play. But no bad beat this time. I used to be limited to $25 on the lions boost but now I can go to $50. That’s good.

Soopoo, just so you know, your writing about your sports bets coveys your enthusiasm. It is a welcome change around here to see people excited about something. The stakes don't matter, your dedication and excitement to your new found craft is infectious.

Half-time, 49ers' game:

Welp, looks' like I have to "ride or die" with my test bet on the Seahawks' , with the score being 14-3 to the 49ers' .

If the 49ers' win, I am kind of hoping the bet that I had before the game on the them' -9.5 @ +245, and -10.5 +285, will soften the blow.

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In game Analysis:

It looks like I may have "over-compensated for players' out, and the 49ers' current starting QB" because I had the "gross spread" @ -6.5 to -7 for the 49ers', before making adjustments.

Also, too bad Mone left the game early, because according to ESPN, there is no "direct replacement" for him at NT.

Quote: ksdjdj

Half-time, 49ers' game:

Welp, looks' like I have to "ride or die" with my test bet on the Seahawks' , with the score being 14-3 to the 49ers' .

If the 49ers' win, I am kind of hoping the bet that I had before the game on the them' -9.5 @ +245, and -10.5 +285, will soften the blow.

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In game Analysis:

It looks like I may have "over-compensated for players' out, and the 49ers' current starting QB" because I had the "gross spread" @ -6.5 to -7 for the 49ers', before making adjustments.

Also, too bad Mone left the game early, because according to ESPN, there is no "direct replacement" for him at NT.
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. Football is very hard to analyze because in this game alone there was the (sort of) random event of a fumble returned for a TD which totally changed the game. Change that to the likely FG for Seattle and it’s 14-9 instead of 21-6. Seattle threw pass to 2 yard line negated by holding (it was a good call) but if ref misses that (not uncommon) add 4 more to Seattle. I think someone once summed it up …. A pointy football bounces funny.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Half-time, 49ers' game:

Welp, looks' like I have to "ride or die" with my test bet on the Seahawks' , with the score being 14-3 to the 49ers' .

If the 49ers' win, I am kind of hoping the bet that I had before the game on the them' -9.5 @ +245, and -10.5 +285, will soften the blow.

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In game Analysis:

It looks like I may have "over-compensated for players' out, and the 49ers' current starting QB" because I had the "gross spread" @ -6.5 to -7 for the 49ers', before making adjustments.

Also, too bad Mone left the game early, because according to ESPN, there is no "direct replacement" for him at NT.
link to original post

. Football is very hard to analyze because in this game alone there was the (sort of) random event of a fumble returned for a TD which totally changed the game. Change that to the likely FG for Seattle and it’s 14-9 instead of 21-6. Seattle threw pass to 2 yard line negated by holding (it was a good call) but if ref misses that (not uncommon) add 4 more to Seattle. I think someone once summed it up …. A pointy football bounces funny.
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If the 49ers' can't get out of their own "end-zone" by 3rd down, then it would be one of the few times I would consider taking a safety.

Started writing this when it was 2nd and on the 1 yard line (?)

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Extra info:
Feeling bad now that I didn't hedge the 49ers' -3.5 @ +130 before the game (though I think for my long-term ability to bet with that 'book, I did the right thing).

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Update (written just after the Seahawks' TD):
Score is now 21-13, I either want Seattle to score a TD***, or 49ers' to score 3+ pts (otherwise I lost over $10k on this game, not including my graded bet).

***: If this happens, preferably they go for two and don't convert, if the 49ers' don't score on this drive.

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Comment (after game is over):
Oh poo, about one yard short of a 49ers' TD.

I’m finally on the right side of one of these ‘we aren’t playing our good players tonight’. I got the Suns +1.5 and over 105.5 at odds that implied Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are playing for the opposition. They are being rested. Game not over but Suns are up 30 early in 2nd half.
I wrote earlier about Nets sitting their top 7 scorers for a game. The league has fined them $25k. I’m sure that will be a deterrent for the future….. NOT!!!!

Quote: SOOPOO

(snip)
I wrote earlier about Nets sitting their top 7 scorers for a game. The league has fined them $25k. I’m sure that will be a deterrent for the future….. NOT!!!!
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Going by the 2020 figures, that fine is "~1/100,000 x the value of the team" ("Mr Google" told me that they were worth up to $3.5 billion in 2022).

I'd suggest the fine for sitting out a healthy player is equal to his game salary. If the Nets were fined those seven salaries, and the money went to buy tickets for underprivileged kids and the like, it might stop the practice. If not, it helps some kids.