ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 15th, 2022 at 11:36:53 PM permalink
Steelers v Panthers game (betting summary):

"TL;DR version": I can either win ~$3,100 if the game goes under 27.5, or lose $360 if the game goes over 28.5.

----
"Longer version":

I got the following bets down (at different 'books):
. $500 on the under 27.5 @ +390
. Nothing on the over 27.5
. $1,300 on the under 28.5 @ ~ +384^^^ (either win $5000 or lose $1300)
. $4,000 on the over 28.5 @ - 312.5
. $1,600 on the under 30.5 @ +260
. $4,000 on the over 30.5 @ ~ -227 (either win $1,760 / or lose $4,000)

^^^: For this option, 8/13 of my bet was on @ +400 and the rest was on @ +360.

List of potential results:
Total 27 (or less) = +$3,110
Total 28 (exactly) = +$660
Total 29 (or higher) = -$360
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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December 16th, 2022 at 8:22:12 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Steelers v Panthers game (betting summary):

"TL;DR version": I can either win ~$3,100 if the game goes under 27.5, or lose $360 if the game goes over 28.5.

----
"Longer version":

I got the following bets down (at different 'books):
. $500 on the under 27.5 @ +390
. Nothing on the over 27.5
. $1,300 on the under 28.5 @ ~ +384^^^ (either win $5000 or lose $1300)
. $4,000 on the over 28.5 @ - 312.5
. $1,600 on the under 30.5 @ +260
. $4,000 on the over 30.5 @ ~ -227 (either win $1,760 / or lose $4,000)

^^^: For this option, 8/13 of my bet was on @ +400 and the rest was on @ +360.

List of potential results:
Total 27 (or less) = +$3,110
Total 28 (exactly) = +$660
Total 29 (or higher) = -$360
link to original post



What stands out to me is you got under 28.5 at +384, and over 28.5 at -312.5. Which one had a betting limit? That was free money, right?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 94
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December 17th, 2022 at 2:13:34 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Steelers v Panthers game (betting summary):

"TL;DR version": I can either win ~$3,100 if the game goes under 27.5, or lose $360 if the game goes over 28.5.

----
"Longer version":

I got the following bets down (at different 'books):
. $500 on the under 27.5 @ +390
. Nothing on the over 27.5
. $1,300 on the under 28.5 @ ~ +384^^^ (either win $5000 or lose $1300)
. $4,000 on the over 28.5 @ - 312.5
. $1,600 on the under 30.5 @ +260
. $4,000 on the over 30.5 @ ~ -227 (either win $1,760 / or lose $4,000)

^^^: For this option, 8/13 of my bet was on @ +400 and the rest was on @ +360.

List of potential results:
Total 27 (or less) = +$3,110
Total 28 (exactly) = +$660
Total 29 (or higher) = -$360
link to original post



What stands out to me is you got under 28.5 at +384, and over 28.5 at -312.5. Which one had a betting limit? That was free money, right?
link to original post


I know what I said above (and that was originally my betting plan) but below is an update of my "potential results for this game":

. $500 on the under 27.5 @ +390
. Nothing on the over 27.5

. $1,300 on the under 28.5 @ ~ +384^^^ (either win $5,000 or lose $1,300)
. $4,000 on the over 28.5 @ - 312.5 $4,900 ... @ -312.5 (either win $1,568 or lose $4,900).
. Make either +$100 if under 28.5, or +$268 if over 28.5, on this part of the bet,

. $1,600 on the under 30.5 @ +260 (either win $4,160 / or lose $1,600)
. $4,000 on the over 30.5 @ ~ -227 (either win $1,760 / or lose $4,000)
. Make +$160 on this part of the bet (no matter what happens).

NEW list of potential results:
Total 27 (or less) = +$2,210
Total 28 (exactly) = - $240
Total 29 (or higher) = - $72

----
Analysis of bets/odds/options:

. I thought the over and under 30.5 had a similar $-EV (whether as a bet on either or both).
. No strong opinion (either way) for the 28.5 total (so was happy to make a bit of money on both options).
. I really liked the under 27.5 from an EV stand-point (at the time, I could have received ~ -345 for the over, but didn't think it was "worth it" even though it was "a positive hedging opportunity").

----
" Which one had a betting limit? "

All the "odds on prices" had an estimated limit of "to win about $2k" (as I originally tried to get $5k on the over 30.5 @ $1.44 / ~ -227, but it wouldn't accept the bet ).

For these markets, the other 'book seems to hover around "to win ~$3k to ~$5k", before they adjust the odds (or stop me from betting anymore, on that market).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 17, 2022
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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December 17th, 2022 at 11:39:52 AM permalink
Watching surprising Vikings game. Mid second quarter they were down 23 to the Colts. Nothing was going right for Vikes on offense, defense, or special teams. I went on DK to see how ridiculous the ‘to win’ odds had become. I was able to bet on the Colts $79 to win $10. I certainly am aware of a few times teams have come back from down 23 to win a game, but it can’t even be 10% of the time. I guess since there was more than half the game left, the Colts best player got injured, Minnesota supposedly has a ‘high powered’ offense…. 33-0 at halftime. No more ML bets.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 17th, 2022 at 12:12:44 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Watching surprising Vikings game. Mid second quarter they were down 23 to the Colts. Nothing was going right for Vikes on offense, defense, or special teams. I went on DK to see how ridiculous the ‘to win’ odds had become. I was able to bet on the Colts $79 to win $10. I certainly am aware of a few times teams have come back from down 23 to win a game, but it can’t even be 10% of the time. I guess since there was more than half the game left, the Colts best player got injured, Minnesota supposedly has a ‘high powered’ offense…. 33-0 at halftime. No more ML bets.
link to original post


Even though the Vikings' are winning well above expected, I had (before adjusting for "strength of schedule, injuries etc") the Vikings around -5^^^ to -5.5^^^

^^^: These figures are just from a "for and against" stand-point

Vikings' will have to go for 8-pt TDs nearly every time they score (if they score) in the 2nd half.

----
Bets:

Before the game, I had $2.5k on the Vikings +1.5 @ $1.52 (part of the reason for the bet, they had the ML @ $1.52 , as well).

A few minutes ago, I also tried to get on for $4k on the Browns' -2.5 @ $1.95*** / ~ -105, but they cut me back to $1.6k.

***: I don't have an opinion for this game, but at the time of the bet Pinnacle had the Browns' -125 / Ravens' +113 at the 2.5 line.

----
Vikings' game update:

I started writing this at half time (the score was 33-0) but the 2nd half has started, and it is now 33-7 ###

###: I will be a bit surprised if the Vikings don't go for 2-pts on two of their next three TDs at least one of their next TDs (if they score anymore TDs, that is).

I amended the above (see strike-through )as the score is now 36-7 (no more score updates, unless the Vikings' "get close" ).

----
Update 2 (After the interception):
The Vikings' had to be "near perfect" , but threw an interception (game is still not over yet, but it will be a "miracle" for me to win my bet, now).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 17, 2022
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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December 17th, 2022 at 1:04:46 PM permalink
Never underestimate the incompetence of an NFL coach. Something like 30 seconds to go in third quarter, Colts have 2nd and 7. I can’t describe how obvious it is to run the ball so you get to the next quarter with the ball and worst case scenario you have 3rd and something. Colts threw a few incompletions still not getting to the 4th quarter. Around 5 extra plays.


Looks like I’m gonna lose my bet!!!! (Maybe)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 17th, 2022 at 1:23:53 PM permalink
Hope the game ends in an OT tie, so that you at least get your money back (right?) and I still win on my Vikings' +1.5, as well.

-----
Extra:

I haven't looked to see who they are playing yet, but I will probably bet against the Vikings' next game if they win (because the Fans'/ betting public will probably be "hyped from the come-back", amongst other things).

----
Update (with 1:20 to go)

Vikings' could still win in Reg.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 17th, 2022 at 2:04:01 PM permalink
Deleted (duplicate post, for some reason).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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December 17th, 2022 at 2:04:01 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Hope the game ends in an OT tie, so that you at least get your money back (right?) and I still win on my Vikings' +1.5, as well.

-----
Extra:

I haven't looked to see who they are playing yet, but I will probably bet against the Vikings' next game if they win (because the Fans'/ betting public will probably be "hyped from the come-back", amongst other things).

----
Update (with 1:20 to go)

Vikings' could still win in Reg.
link to original post


Wow, "largest come-back in NFL history" !!!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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  • Posts: 9796
December 17th, 2022 at 2:08:14 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Hope the game ends in an OT tie, so that you at least get your money back (right?) and I still win on my Vikings' +1.5, as well.

-----
Extra:

I haven't looked to see who they are playing yet, but I will probably bet against the Vikings' next game if they win (because the Fans'/ betting public will probably be "hyped from the come-back", amongst other things).

----
Update (with 1:20 to go)

Vikings' could still win in Reg.
link to original post


Wow, "largest come-back in NFL history" !!!
link to original post




It was a lock. Once I bet against the Vikes what other result would you expect. I did make a bunch of $2 on ‘Colts not to score next possession.
I did have Colts plus points as first in a parlay. Next is Bills. This one is just ML.

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