AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13810
January 30th, 2024 at 4:01:52 PM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: Sandybestdog

Quote: AZDuffman

Just heard that in 83% of NFL games the spread does not matter. IOW, 83% of the time the spread is covered or the underdog wins outright. Knowing this, when would you play the moneyline vs taking the points?
link to original post


This is my thought exactly. I have no idea why people care about the spread. It’s like nobody actually cares who wins or losses. Has any team been in the locker room and been totally bummed that they won a game but didn’t cover the spread? People talk very intently about how a line moved from 3.5 to 3 off the open and closed at 2.5. Then 90% of the time it didn’t even matter. Now of course that 10% of the time is where it matters. But I’d rather just get a better money line where it matters 50% of the time.



One book I have has some college coach quoted as saying "we cover better than anyone" though he meant in losing. I think it was just a quote for fun though and they do not take it serious. I can see a team getting upset for being questioned for not covering enough in a "you are not as good as you think you are" kind of way.

The moving of the line is of course just to entice people to balance action. Same as back in the day moving a stock 1/8 of a point. Back then if the fraction was not in 1/8s brokers would get a call that said "moo goo gai pan" meaning quit making a "Chinese Market" of weird fractions. But those small moves may get someone to take a stock or a team.
link to original post

I think the Patriots were notable for never covering. But tell me this. 2 minutes left in the game. A -7 team is up 21-16. Do you really think they are risking the game with a drive to get a last second field goal so they can cover the spread? Of course not. They are going to kneel it out and win by 5.

I just think I would be much more happy getting +140 on the moneyline when the rest of the market is +130 rather than +3.5 when the rest of the market is +3 and it probably won’t make a difference which points you take but it will on the moneyline price.
link to original post



What you are saying is just why you should take dogs. What you said plus garbage yards and scores late in an in the bag game.

Only thing I can see is trash talk making teams that never cover feel weak.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 2nd, 2024 at 2:17:34 AM permalink
DK got me again

I've found there is a learning curve with a new venture, this time for me it being online sports betting, and I admit I'm pretty good at learning the *hard way.* Some mistakes I've made, well, I'm not going to relate them here, they make me look pretty stupid, ha ha. But, you know, you come away wiser, it's part of the process.

So for one thing I know to look at the small print. DK comes up with this offer to bet $10 on who will be the first to hit a 3 pointer in the lakers game last night, and in return receive a dollar freebet for each 3 pointer the team scores. I'm sure I don't have to explain; that's a good offer. But do you have to win the bet to get the bonus like it sounds? So I look over the t&c and nope, clearly worded in a way that simply says you get the bonus just for betting, nothing about having to win the bet. So sure enough, it appears you had to win the bet, naturally I didn't. I was aware this could happen.

Now my view is when you make a mistake, or get screwed, before you get all wound up, you look at the expected value of the bet. The 3 pointer bet by itself you can be sure has a hefty house edge, probably 20%. With the offer as it should have been explained, I'd estimate most of the edge, perhaps all, gets wiped away by winning so much value when you do win. So the expected value of my bet was somewhere around full return, but I don't think it was +EV. I wouldn't have made this bet ... for one thing I don't normally bet basketball... if the T&C was explained properly. I just chalk it up to another example of DK trying to 'get you' , and punter beware.

Oh, complaining to DK about this is out of the question. That's my vision of a miserable life, setting aside a chunk of your life whining about that kind of stuff, hell on earth. Your mileage may vary [I know some people seem to enjoy it]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
9Michael99
9Michael99
Joined: Feb 2, 2024
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 2
February 2nd, 2024 at 3:52:08 AM permalink
Sports Betting, worse than slots. lol
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
February 2nd, 2024 at 4:02:37 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

DK got me again

I've found there is a learning curve with a new venture, this time for me it being online sports betting, and I admit I'm pretty good at learning the *hard way.* Some mistakes I've made, well, I'm not going to relate them here, they make me look pretty stupid, ha ha. But, you know, you come away wiser, it's part of the process.

So for one thing I know to look at the small print. DK comes up with this offer to bet $10 on who will be the first to hit a 3 pointer in the lakers game last night, and in return receive a dollar freebet for each 3 pointer the team scores. I'm sure I don't have to explain; that's a good offer. But do you have to win the bet to get the bonus like it sounds? So I look over the t&c and nope, clearly worded in a way that simply says you get the bonus just for betting, nothing about having to win the bet. So sure enough, it appears you had to win the bet, naturally I didn't. I was aware this could happen.

Now my view is when you make a mistake, or get screwed, before you get all wound up, you look at the expected value of the bet. The 3 pointer bet by itself you can be sure has a hefty house edge, probably 20%. With the offer as it should have been explained, I'd estimate most of the edge, perhaps all, gets wiped away by winning so much value when you do win. So the expected value of my bet was somewhere around full return, but I don't think it was +EV. I wouldn't have made this bet ... for one thing I don't normally bet basketball... if the T&C was explained properly. I just chalk it up to another example of DK trying to 'get you' , and punter beware.

Oh, complaining to DK about this is out of the question. That's my vision of a miserable life, setting aside a chunk of your life whining about that kind of stuff, hell on earth. Your mileage may vary [I know some people seem to enjoy it]
link to original post



If they got you they got me too! Two previous days they had requirement to bet $50 on ‘first three pointer’ and you got that free bet. Probably averages $35, so EV $25 or so. Figure -$7 EV on initial get so it was a great deal.

I ‘thought’ it was the SAME offer now just for a $10 bet. I was logging on this morning to tout how AMAZING an offer it was! It’s still quite a good offer anyway. Pick the favorite who will win around 1/4 of the time. So you ‘lose’ probably $2 in EV on the initial bet but 1/4 of the time get that $25 in EV, so OVERALL it’s $2 in + EV.

IF you are wrong there were 35 ‘3’s in that game. I didn’t pick the winner. I’ll see later today if I get a $35 free bet.

Two nights ago had FOUR last bets on BetRivers hit
Boosted 5 leg parley, all small favorites (-180 ish) total + 1600
Free bet 2 leg parlay (+265)
4 leg NBA parlay ((+300)
4 leg NCAA parlay (+250)

Now the NCAA and NBA teams were heavy favorites, all -300 or shorter, (shortest -500) but still, that’s quite some luck.

My favorite bets that keep hitting are Hart and Hartenstein over rebounds. With Anunoby and Randle out they eat up extra minutes AND are playing under the basket more. Last night I took Hart over 8.5 (12) and Hartenstein over 10.5 (19!).
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 2nd, 2024 at 8:16:57 AM permalink
Odious, you were wrong! I got my $35 free bet for making that $10 bet. By %, one of the best +EV bets I made. DK seems to be feeling the competition more…. way more +EV available to me recently….
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6481
February 2nd, 2024 at 11:25:49 AM permalink
.
you seem to be doing quite well with your + ev bets and free play and bonuses and whatever
and you definitely seem to be enjoying it quite a bit - good for you
have you kept a record of how much you're up in % terms________? - not asking about the dollar amount

just curious if you don't mind my asking

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 2nd, 2024 at 11:46:22 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
you seem to be doing quite well with your + ev bets and free play and bonuses and whatever
and you definitely seem to be enjoying it quite a bit - good for you
have you kept a record of how much you're up in % terms________? - not asking about the dollar amount

just curious if you don't mind my asking

.
link to original post



Not really. I’m not even sure how I would do it! So I bet that $10 on the 3 point thing. Lost $10. But now I have a $35 free bet. Then I bet that $35 free bet. Let’s say I win $80. Would you want me to count that as up 800%? What if while being ahead in that game I hedge and lose $20 of the $80? What if the hedge wins so now I have $20 from the initial $10 bet? Etc….

At least two of the sites list ‘total bet, total won/lost’.’ I think I was up 10-15%. But it’s not relevant, really. It’s not like I have +EV offers that are unlimited. There is virtually always some (relatively low) maximum I can bet on them.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6481
February 2nd, 2024 at 12:06:33 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
you seem to be doing quite well with your + ev bets and free play and bonuses and whatever
and you definitely seem to be enjoying it quite a bit - good for you
have you kept a record of how much you're up in % terms________? - not asking about the dollar amount

just curious if you don't mind my asking

.
link to original post



Not really. I’m not even sure how I would do it.
link to original post


well, if you wanted to do it -
you would calculate how much you won or lost from you out of pocket bets
and then how much you won from your free bets
i.e. - if you bet $100 out of pocket and lost $10 - but got $40 in free bets and won $20 from those -
then you would have a positive return of 10%
but maybe you don't wanna do it - maybe all that calculating would take the fun out of it - and the fun is very important

.
Please don't feed the trolls
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 2nd, 2024 at 12:26:56 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
you seem to be doing quite well with your + ev bets and free play and bonuses and whatever
and you definitely seem to be enjoying it quite a bit - good for you
have you kept a record of how much you're up in % terms________? - not asking about the dollar amount

just curious if you don't mind my asking

.
link to original post



Not really. I’m not even sure how I would do it.
link to original post


well, if you wanted to do it -
you would calculate how much you won or lost from you out of pocket bets
and then how much you won from your free bets
i.e. - if you bet $100 out of pocket and lost $10 - but got $40 in free bets and won $20 from those -
then you would have a positive return of 10%
but maybe you don't wanna do it - maybe all that calculating would take the fun out of it - and the fun is very important

.
link to original post



It’s more complicated than that. I just got a $20 free bet from Caesars for being Diamond. How do you want me to count that!?

I got multiple 50% profit boosts for making small —EV bets. The profit boosts will be used to turn -EV bets to +EV bets. Figure that out for me. Sometimes I lose all of them!

I think for me WAY more valuable is getting an approximation of my daily +EV. With all my posting I think overall it’s still less than $40 a day. But seems like more recently.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
February 2nd, 2024 at 12:35:17 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
you seem to be doing quite well with your + ev bets and free play and bonuses and whatever
and you definitely seem to be enjoying it quite a bit - good for you
have you kept a record of how much you're up in % terms________? - not asking about the dollar amount

just curious if you don't mind my asking

.
link to original post



Not really. I’m not even sure how I would do it! So I bet that $10 on the 3 point thing. Lost $10. But now I have a $35 free bet. Then I bet that $35 free bet. Let’s say I win $80. Would you want me to count that as up 800%? What if while being ahead in that game I hedge and lose $20 of the $80? What if the hedge wins so now I have $20 from the initial $10 bet? Etc….

At least two of the sites list ‘total bet, total won/lost’.’ I think I was up 10-15%. But it’s not relevant, really. It’s not like I have +EV offers that are unlimited. There is virtually always some (relatively low) maximum I can bet on them.
link to original post




If you have a dedicated bankroll,it should be easy to see if it has risen or shrunk.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 2nd, 2024 at 12:39:59 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
you seem to be doing quite well with your + ev bets and free play and bonuses and whatever
and you definitely seem to be enjoying it quite a bit - good for you
have you kept a record of how much you're up in % terms________? - not asking about the dollar amount

just curious if you don't mind my asking

.
link to original post



Not really. I’m not even sure how I would do it! So I bet that $10 on the 3 point thing. Lost $10. But now I have a $35 free bet. Then I bet that $35 free bet. Let’s say I win $80. Would you want me to count that as up 800%? What if while being ahead in that game I hedge and lose $20 of the $80? What if the hedge wins so now I have $20 from the initial $10 bet? Etc….

At least two of the sites list ‘total bet, total won/lost’.’ I think I was up 10-15%. But it’s not relevant, really. It’s not like I have +EV offers that are unlimited. There is virtually always some (relatively low) maximum I can bet on them.
link to original post




If you have a dedicated bankroll,it should be easy to see if it has risen or shrunk.
link to original post



That I know exactly. Meaning…

Amount withdrawn +
Account value -
Amount deposited = profit.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 2nd, 2024 at 5:44:13 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Odious, you were wrong! I got my $35 free bet for making that $10 bet. By %, one of the best +EV bets I made. DK seems to be feeling the competition more…. way more +EV available to me recently….
link to original post



by golly, I almost didn't check, but there it is, $35 in freebets it seems

I say 'seems' because the site is wonky for me at the moment

I have to say, I've never seen the delayed appearance of a bonus like that with anybody. All they were showing was my lost bet this morning, with no indication anything was coming. Did they realize they had to pay it due to the wording they used? Yep I'd take this deal anytime!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 2nd, 2024 at 5:52:58 PM permalink
I got the official notification at 10:56 this morning, I see.

Have to bet the whole $35 in one bet, have till Feb 9th, any sport and all that looks like
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 3rd, 2024 at 6:38:12 PM permalink
The 76ers were favored over the Nets today. Not sure when both Embiid AND Harris were officially ruled out. I had Nets + points. Nets were up by around 25 most of the second half. I think 76ers are 3-10 without Embiid playing. Take away Harris’ 20+ points and they are just a bad team. Someone who learns of these ‘ruled outs’ before the books do can make bank.

I need a Villarreal win tomorrow to complete a good parlay. Nothing like Sunday morning soccer.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 4th, 2024 at 4:42:36 AM permalink
DK is calling it "Threesday" and the offer last discussed was on a Thursday... they're trying to be clever I guess. But the question is, are they calling it that because it will be *every* Thursday ? I can't get a confirmation of that but me checking in that this Thursday is, well, extremely likely to happen

Other good basketball offers have been coming in almost daily too
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 4th, 2024 at 5:24:24 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

DK is calling it "Threesday" and the offer last discussed was on a Thursday... they're trying to be clever I guess. But the question is, are they calling it that because it will be *every* Thursday ? I can't get a confirmation of that but me checking in that this Thursday is, well, extremely likely to happen

Other good basketball offers have been coming in almost daily too
link to original post



It happened 3 times last week. It’s called ‘threes day’ because the promotion is about hitting the first three point shot. The first two times it required a $50 bet. That third time it was only a $10 bet. The 3 leg same game parlay promotion where you get a free bet if you lose one leg is a good one too. Slightly different strategy needed though. You do NOT want all 3 correlated.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 4th, 2024 at 5:28:43 AM permalink
don't like the 3 leg sgp now... before you got a freebet to replace your bet when you lose, you could lose all 3 legs, now it's if you lose one leg

I sure do not remember seeing that promotion last week and I check daily. Slightly possible I saw it to be $50 and didn't look into it further

a one-off offer is one thing, a repeated offer something else
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 4th, 2024 at 8:49:44 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

don't like the 3 leg sgp now... before you got a freebet to replace your bet when you lose, you could lose all 3 legs, now it's if you lose one leg

I sure do not remember seeing that promotion last week and I check daily. Slightly possible I saw it to be $50 and didn't look into it further

a one-off offer is one thing, a repeated offer something else
link to original post



As I posted, it’s still a highly +EV offer. Take three favorites as your legs. -300 is the shortest you can do. You are a huge favorite to at least win 2 out of 3.

Not factoring in ‘the juice’, You will win all 3 around 42.2% of the time, and win 2 out of 3 also around 42.2% of the time. Even factoring in ‘the juice’ it’s hugely + EV

This morning watching soccer. Four minutes into ten minutes of stoppage time Wolves lead Chelsea 4-2. You can bet on Wolves only laying 50-1. My soccer experience has Chelsea scoring TWO goals in the remaining time as infinitesimal. I put a few (bridge jumper) bets down until it changed to 75-1. I’m wondering how much Caesars would have allowed on that bet? It was a 2% return which (had to?) have a less than 1% chance of failure.
After I got the bets in I thought about the question lilred had asked me, about my % win rate. On these bets I couldn’t do better than 2%.

I have some vague recollection of a real gambler making lots of $$ on bets like this…
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 4th, 2024 at 11:00:27 AM permalink
did you not get in on the DK daily 'no sweat' SGP bets? That's the only way I figure you can have the enthusiasm for the SGP offer as it is now

I notice you and I are often the only ones posting about actually betting. Is it possible others are too leary of it all, and are missing out?

That used to be me, admittedly.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 4th, 2024 at 11:09:09 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

did you not get in on the DK daily 'no sweat' SGP bets? That's the only way I figure you can have the enthusiasm for the SGP offer as it is now

I notice you and I are often the only ones posting about actually betting. Is it possible others are too leary of it all, and are missing out?

That used to be me, admittedly.
link to original post



I know Axel also bets but no real idea to what degree. Wiz as well. DRich also. I don’t think it’s ‘leary’, just more disinterest.

I get both those DK SGP offers every day. The ‘regular’ one I’m limited to $5, so it’s literally only worth around $2 to me. The other one is $20, so even with the added difficulty, still probably worth around $6. Before laughing, $8 a day is around $3k a year.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 4th, 2024 at 11:29:59 AM permalink
I can't be non-grata or I'd get no offers at all, so for some reason DK Virginia is not as generous. I do NOT get the no sweat SGPs now
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
BigCat
BigCat
Joined: Feb 5, 2024
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 4
February 5th, 2024 at 1:14:16 PM permalink
This is a very interesting discussion! I would also be curious to hear advice and recommendations.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 6th, 2024 at 9:44:56 AM permalink
you thought today is Tuesday? It's Threesday

$50 though
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
February 6th, 2024 at 11:02:10 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

you thought today is Tuesday? It's Threesday

$50 though
link to original post



I think the one day it was $10 it was a mistake.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 6th, 2024 at 11:20:01 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

you thought today is Tuesday? It's Threesday

$50 though
link to original post



I think the one day it was $10 it was a mistake.
link to original post

yes, too sweet a deal.

$50 was in excess of my piker vows, but I had planned to ramp up my betting about now so this is working out fine. I'll say again, a one-off is one thing, a repeated offer another. Maybe you have to be alert, wasn't there this morning.

I'm sticking my toe into the bet365 waters today. After my betMGM experience, I feel I never know when I'll sign in and get the "no soup for you" business
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TaxrBux
TaxrBux
Joined: Feb 2, 2024
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 9
February 6th, 2024 at 11:46:53 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


If they got you they got me too! Two previous days they had requirement to bet $50 on ‘first three pointer’ and you got that free bet. Probably averages $35, so EV $25 or so. Figure -$7 EV on initial get so it was a great deal.
link to original post



This seems overly optimistic to me. The vig on one of these first three markets (just one that I randomly picked today - MEM/NYK) is 20.5%. I get an EV of -$20.54 for the favorite (+245, vigless probability 0.24) to -$8.71 for the doggest of dogs (+20000, vigless probability 0.004). The return on the free bet also seems optimistic. I usually use 50-60% as a rule.

Edit: I calculated the EV incorrectly, I think it comes out to -$8.51 for each of the players. So if that's right, then overall it looks like a decent play EV-wise.

Can you share your thinking on these numbers, and how you typically convert the bonus bets? How do you select the player for the initial bet?
Last edited by: TaxrBux on Feb 6, 2024
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 6th, 2024 at 12:00:18 PM permalink
umm, I better review what i wrote

one question, how are you determining the vig?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
TaxrBux
TaxrBux
Joined: Feb 2, 2024
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 9
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
February 6th, 2024 at 1:48:08 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

umm, I better review what i wrote

one question, how are you determining the vig?
link to original post



There are calculators out there to calculate fair odds. I use a spreadsheet, and convert each American odds number to a probability, then add all the probabilities together for that market. The vig is the difference between that sum and 1. For a simple example, the typical odds on the spread for a football game are -110 for each side. Take the amount bet (110) divided by the amount returned (110 + 100) to get 0.5238 for each side. Add them up and you get 1.0476, so there is a 4.76% vig for that market. This works for any market, but you need to make sure you capture all of the possible bets.

The fair odds will be the probability (0.5238, for example) divided by the total (1.0476), and converted back to odds. In the example, the vigless probability is 0.5, with fair odds of +/-100.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 6th, 2024 at 4:04:11 PM permalink
Quote: TaxrBux

Quote: SOOPOO


If they got you they got me too! Two previous days they had requirement to bet $50 on ‘first three pointer’ and you got that free bet. Probably averages $35, so EV $25 or so. Figure -$7 EV on initial get so it was a great deal.
link to original post



This seems overly optimistic to me. The vig on one of these first three markets (just one that I randomly picked today - MEM/NYK) is 20.5%. I get an EV of -$20.54 for the favorite (+245, vigless probability 0.24) to -$8.71 for the doggest of dogs (+20000, vigless probability 0.004). The return on the free bet also seems optimistic. I usually use 50-60% as a rule.

Edit: I calculated the EV incorrectly, I think it comes out to -$8.51 for each of the players. So if that's right, then overall it looks like a decent play EV-wise.

Can you share your thinking on these numbers, and how you typically convert the bonus bets? How do you select the player for the initial bet?
link to original post



I don’t do it nearly as ‘exactly’ as you do! I am a ‘guesstimator’. I figure on the actual bet I’ll probably lose 15%. I tend to pick one of the favorites. I’ve been watching a lot of basketball, and Divincenzo seems to be looking to hoist from 3 at any opportunity. Hence I picked him for tonight. The $7 or $8 I am losing is more than made up for with a $30+ free bet. Today I used around 7 free bets from various promotions. I vary between 2 and 3 leg parlays at between +260 to +600.

I’ve detailed it before, but if I’m motivated I find a line off by 1/2 -1 point from the other books and take the extra point or half point. Probably adds 1-2% to my EV. Not much but it’s fun. Tonight I didn’t want to put the effort in so just did coin flips.

Added Gobert at over 12.5 RB. Talking head on gambling show said last 12 games he’s played against Vucevic he’s gotten AT LEAST 13 rebounds. I think 12 is a thing, not a coincidence.

I’m also on the Oilers. Beating Vegas in Vegas is no easy task. But I love teams on 16 game winning streaks. I’ve loved them the last few games. I’ll only be wrong once….
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 7th, 2024 at 4:18:19 AM permalink
Quote: TaxrBux

There are calculators out there to calculate fair odds. I use a spreadsheet, and convert each American odds number to a probability, then add all the probabilities together for that market. The vig is the difference between that sum and 1. For a simple example, the typical odds on the spread for a football game are -110 for each side. Take the amount bet (110) divided by the amount returned (110 + 100) to get 0.5238 for each side. Add them up and you get 1.0476, so there is a 4.76% vig for that market. This works for any market, but you need to make sure you capture all of the possible bets.

The fair odds will be the probability (0.5238, for example) divided by the total (1.0476), and converted back to odds. In the example, the vigless probability is 0.5, with fair odds of +/-100.
link to original post

thanks for the explanation, pretty cool

it occurs to me that you still have to assume you know what you don't actually know.

Let’s say the first 3 point favorite is +260. You say to “take the amount bet divided by the amount returned“ , which will be 100/360 if 100 is bet. It gives us 0.5556 for one side, but the “no” doesn’t exist, you can’t bet that the favorite won’t be the one to shoot it. Maybe you would assume the vig is the same if the bet existed, add them, and get 1.1112 and a 11.12% vig. That’s believable, but it assumes the unfettered oddsmaker didn’t just decide to only set +260 instead of much higher since he doesn’t need to worry about the other side getting too irresistible.

+260 is shown to be a high vig, but any amount you would use would be shown to have a high vig. Maybe +320 is fair, but the shown vig would be high. This makes me think you don’t do it this way I’m imagining. How do you?
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Feb 7, 2024
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 7th, 2024 at 4:57:42 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TaxrBux

Quote: SOOPOO


If they got you they got me too! Two previous days they had requirement to bet $50 on ‘first three pointer’ and you got that free bet. Probably averages $35, so EV $25 or so. Figure -$7 EV on initial get so it was a great deal.
link to original post



This seems overly optimistic to me. The vig on one of these first three markets (just one that I randomly picked today - MEM/NYK) is 20.5%. I get an EV of -$20.54 for the favorite (+245, vigless probability 0.24) to -$8.71 for the doggest of dogs (+20000, vigless probability 0.004). The return on the free bet also seems optimistic. I usually use 50-60% as a rule.

Edit: I calculated the EV incorrectly, I think it comes out to -$8.51 for each of the players. So if that's right, then overall it looks like a decent play EV-wise.

Can you share your thinking on these numbers, and how you typically convert the bonus bets? How do you select the player for the initial bet?
link to original post



I don’t do it nearly as ‘exactly’ as you do! I am a ‘guesstimator’. I figure on the actual bet I’ll probably lose 15%. I tend to pick one of the favorites. I’ve been watching a lot of basketball, and Divincenzo seems to be looking to hoist from 3 at any opportunity. Hence I picked him for tonight. The $7 or $8 I am losing is more than made up for with a $30+ free bet. Today I used around 7 free bets from various promotions. I vary between 2 and 3 leg parlays at between +260 to +600.

I’ve detailed it before, but if I’m motivated I find a line off by 1/2 -1 point from the other books and take the extra point or half point. Probably adds 1-2% to my EV. Not much but it’s fun. Tonight I didn’t want to put the effort in so just did coin flips.

Added Gobert at over 12.5 RB. Talking head on gambling show said last 12 games he’s played against Vucevic he’s gotten AT LEAST 13 rebounds. I think 12 is a thing, not a coincidence.

I’m also on the Oilers. Beating Vegas in Vegas is no easy task. But I love teams on 16 game winning streaks. I’ve loved them the last few games. I’ll only be wrong once….
link to original post



Great night for me. Starting with smooth 3 from DiVincenzo. Gobert I think had 16 RB. Lost on Oilers, but should nice it was 3rd leg of parlay in n a free bet I hedged nicely as Vegas was around +130. Had McDavid for first goal too! But mostly, my coin flips were just lucky.

I forget which (DraftKings or FanDuel?) site is giving a free bet FROM LEBRON JAMES for making a SuperBowl bet. I guess I haven’t been paying attention, but I thought ACTIVE players were not allowed to be tied up with the SportsBooks.
I’ve noticed all the RETIRED players (Mannings, Gronk, Redick, Brady, Barry Sanders, etc..).
TaxrBux
TaxrBux
Joined: Feb 2, 2024
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 9
February 7th, 2024 at 11:04:31 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: TaxrBux

There are calculators out there to calculate fair odds. I use a spreadsheet, and convert each American odds number to a probability, then add all the probabilities together for that market. The vig is the difference between that sum and 1. For a simple example, the typical odds on the spread for a football game are -110 for each side. Take the amount bet (110) divided by the amount returned (110 + 100) to get 0.5238 for each side. Add them up and you get 1.0476, so there is a 4.76% vig for that market. This works for any market, but you need to make sure you capture all of the possible bets.

The fair odds will be the probability (0.5238, for example) divided by the total (1.0476), and converted back to odds. In the example, the vigless probability is 0.5, with fair odds of +/-100.
link to original post

thanks for the explanation, pretty cool

it occurs to me that you still have to assume you know what you don't actually know.

Let’s say the first 3 point favorite is +260. You say to “take the amount bet divided by the amount returned“ , which will be 100/360 if 100 is bet. It gives us 0.5556 for one side, but the “no” doesn’t exist, you can’t bet that the favorite won’t be the one to shoot it. Maybe you would assume the vig is the same if the bet existed, add them, and get 1.1112 and a 11.12% vig. That’s believable, but it assumes the unfettered oddsmaker didn’t just decide to only set +260 instead of much higher since he doesn’t need to worry about the other side getting too irresistible.

+260 is shown to be a high vig, but any amount you would use would be shown to have a high vig. Maybe +320 is fair, but the shown vig would be high. This makes me think you don’t do it this way I’m imagining. How do you?
link to original post


Yeah, for markets where there are only 2 outcomes, it's easier to think about. For 3 or more outcomes, first, you add up all the probabilities based on the odds for each outcome, and that will always (other than book error) be > 1. So in soccer, you have the 3-way markets, and in NFL, you have the first TD scorer markets, etc.

The +260 works out to a probability of .2778, not .5556, BTW. The "no" side in this case is the sum of all the other outcomes' probabilities in that market.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 7th, 2024 at 1:03:59 PM permalink
BetRivers has “SB team to score 3 times in an row unanswered’.

No way for me to find out these ‘minor details’.
Does an extra point count as a ‘score’?
Does ‘unanswered’ mean that if a team scores three times in a row but the other team scores next it is therefore ‘answered’ and no longer ‘unanswered’?

I’ll stay away from this one.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11505
February 7th, 2024 at 1:14:35 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

BetRivers has “SB team to score 3 times in an row unanswered’.

No way for me to find out these ‘minor details’.
Does an extra point count as a ‘score’?
Does ‘unanswered’ mean that if a team scores three times in a row but the other team scores next it is therefore ‘answered’ and no longer ‘unanswered’?

I’ll stay away from this one.
link to original post



Many years ago I lost a lot of money to an online sports book. They had a bet will the last score of the game be FG, TD, or other. I bet other because of the extra point.

The last two scores of the game were TD and extra point. They would not pay me because they said the extra point is not considered a score. I fought it for about a month and never got anywhere.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 7th, 2024 at 1:34:46 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

BetRivers has “SB team to score 3 times in an row unanswered’.

No way for me to find out these ‘minor details’.
Does an extra point count as a ‘score’?
Does ‘unanswered’ mean that if a team scores three times in a row but the other team scores next it is therefore ‘answered’ and no longer ‘unanswered’?

I’ll stay away from this one.
link to original post



Many years ago I lost a lot of money to an online sports book. They had a bet will the last score of the game be FG, TD, or other. I bet other because of the extra point.

The last two scores of the game were TD and extra point. They would not pay me because they said the extra point is not considered a score. I fought it for about a month and never got anywhere.
link to original post



I would have ‘guessed’ that it would not count. But just such poor verbiage to not be crystal clear.

I’m stunned NO ONE at the Book could foresee a problem. Just say ‘Extra points/ 2 point conversions’ don’t count.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 8th, 2024 at 8:24:36 AM permalink
Free $50 today. BetMGM has bonus match. Put in $50. Get matched $50. Requirement is you must bet $100 on bets -200 or longer over next 7 days. I don’t think any of their ‘boost’ bets qualify. They let you track your progress. I just bet $1 on random tennis match and now I can clearly see I need to bet $99 more.
Not sure exactly why, but I won’t make a withdrawal for a couple of months after taking advantage of one of these promotions.

Today there is a Knicks profit boost. I went with all correlated Brunson ‘under’ picks. Under points, rebounds, assists, 3’s. He was pulled last game with a sprained ankle. The pointspread has Knicks as significant home underdog to the Mavs. If Brunson is fully healthy I think Knicks would be favorites. I may win, and I also may lose all the legs.

Two LONGSHOT golf picks. Higgo top 20, Bezuidenhout to win.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 8th, 2024 at 11:04:40 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Free $50 today. BetMGM has bonus match. Put in $50. Get matched $50. Requirement is you must bet $100 on bets -200 or longer over next 7 days. I don’t think any of their ‘boost’ bets qualify. They let you track your progress. I just bet $1 on random tennis match and now I can clearly see I need to bet $99 more.
Not sure exactly why, but I won’t make a withdrawal for a couple of months after taking advantage of one of these promotions.

Today there is a Knicks profit boost. I went with all correlated Brunson ‘under’ picks. Under points, rebounds, assists, 3’s. He was pulled last game with a sprained ankle. The pointspread has Knicks as significant home underdog to the Mavs. If Brunson is fully healthy I think Knicks would be favorites. I may win, and I also may lose all the legs.

Two LONGSHOT golf picks. Higgo top 20, Bezuidenhout to win.
link to original post

no $50 soup for me. Or even 8bitBarry gruel, which I click on and get a blank screen in return. You wouldn't think that no withdrawal trick would be worth a damn, but I didn't follow that practice at betMGM and maybe that's where I went wrong. Will take solace in another threesday offer today at their competitor. Btw bet365 experience going well. Glad all these don't compare notes.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 8th, 2024 at 11:11:04 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Free $50 today. BetMGM has bonus match. Put in $50. Get matched $50. Requirement is you must bet $100 on bets -200 or longer over next 7 days. I don’t think any of their ‘boost’ bets qualify. They let you track your progress. I just bet $1 on random tennis match and now I can clearly see I need to bet $99 more.
Not sure exactly why, but I won’t make a withdrawal for a couple of months after taking advantage of one of these promotions.

Today there is a Knicks profit boost. I went with all correlated Brunson ‘under’ picks. Under points, rebounds, assists, 3’s. He was pulled last game with a sprained ankle. The pointspread has Knicks as significant home underdog to the Mavs. If Brunson is fully healthy I think Knicks would be favorites. I may win, and I also may lose all the legs.

Two LONGSHOT golf picks. Higgo top 20, Bezuidenhout to win.
link to original post

no $50 soup for me. Or even 8bitBarry gruel, which I click on and get a blank screen in return. You wouldn't think that no withdrawal trick would be worth a damn, but I didn't follow that practice at betMGM and maybe that's where I went wrong. Will take solace in another threesday offer today at their competitor. Btw bet365 experience going well. Glad all these don't compare notes.
link to original post



The 8 bit Barry is only supposed to be once a week. I try it daily and guess I get it 3 times a week. I’ve only gotten the free bet once. But a 30% profit boost is still worthwhile. My ‘Barry’ has scored a touchdown every time.

I picked Curry for tonight.

Interesting …. So my $1 bet won 60 cents. I don’t think I could even withdraw my 60 cent winning until I play through that $100. Just made a second $1 bet!
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9523
February 9th, 2024 at 5:33:14 AM permalink
So Mr. Curry has now curried favor with me anyway, soopoo too methinks.

Check into DT to follow up on where that expression comes from
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
February 9th, 2024 at 6:18:09 AM permalink
On a heater. Hit Curry 3 pointer last night. A little better than 2-1.
I make NCAA and NBA 4 leg parlays. All favorites. Both ended around 2-1. Both hit. That’s 8 legs. Had 3 separate 2 leg ‘coin flip’ parlays that ALL hit. So last 14 teams picked on BR are winners. I think that’s around a 1 in 700 chance.
‘Prop bet’ offer needed two picks. Halliburton (on minutes restriction, definitely playing injured) under 2.5 3 pointers. He had 1. Davis over 1.5 blocks. He had 2nd block I think in less than 2 minutes!

Plus the free $50 from BetMGM. $10 from DK.

MGM just loaded me with 3 58% profit boosts for the SB. And 2 boosts for NCAA. As well as a 30% ‘8 bit Barry’ boost.

Time to go make some money!
ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
  • Threads: 19
  • Posts: 231
February 9th, 2024 at 2:53:34 PM permalink
Going tomorrow to bet the first time ever for myself on the Superbowl! Got a whole ton of interesting ideas from looking online and the statistics I could find on the two teams. Total ramble but here goes...

bets for superbowl
28 points per game SF
kansas chief rushing defense mediocre, pass sucks
mcaffrey and mahomes top two players
kelce will get stopped
warner vs kelce
rashid rice needs to have a game
49ers slow in first half, chiefs will score heavy first half
the over is a 50/50 tie (don't take unless cheap parlay)
deebo over 7.5, will run the ball well
justin watson over 1.5 catches
noah grey over 1.5 catches
mahomes loves his tight ends
In 16 career games in which he’s had at least two catches, Gainwell has gone over this total 13 times. One of those games happened to be against the Chiefs last season. With over 1.5 catches for Gainwell juiced up to -150 at some sportsbooks, I’d rather take this yards angle.

Pick: Justin Watson Under 3.5 Receiving Yards — 1st Quarter (-110)
Pick: Jauan Jennings Under 3.5 Receiving Yards — 1st Quarter (-110)
kechenko over 15 .5 rushing attempts
Pacheco has rushed for at least 67 yards in eight of 17 games (47%), but he has also rushed for at least 62 yards in three others. He has also hit the mark in each of his last four games, during which time he has averaged a solid 96 rushing yards.
mccafrey over 69.5 rushing yards
total receive yards kelce over 49.5(i say take under)
pacheco total yards
TD scorer mccaffrey
Pacheco and CMC to each score at least two TD +2200 ----Love this — DK has +1100 and FD has it at +1800
Aiyuk O62.5 receiving
Kittle O46.5 receiving
Purdy rushing at 12.5 yards
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 9th, 2024 at 5:26:43 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Going tomorrow to bet the first time ever for myself on the Superbowl! Got a whole ton of interesting ideas from looking online and the statistics I could find on the two teams. Total ramble but here goes...

bets for superbowl
28 points per game SF
kansas chief rushing defense mediocre, pass sucks
mcaffrey and mahomes top two players
kelce will get stopped
warner vs kelce
rashid rice needs to have a game
49ers slow in first half, chiefs will score heavy first half
the over is a 50/50 tie (don't take unless cheap parlay)
deebo over 7.5, will run the ball well
justin watson over 1.5 catches
noah grey over 1.5 catches
mahomes loves his tight ends
In 16 career games in which he’s had at least two catches, Gainwell has gone over this total 13 times. One of those games happened to be against the Chiefs last season. With over 1.5 catches for Gainwell juiced up to -150 at some sportsbooks, I’d rather take this yards angle.

Pick: Justin Watson Under 3.5 Receiving Yards — 1st Quarter (-110)
Pick: Jauan Jennings Under 3.5 Receiving Yards — 1st Quarter (-110)
kechenko over 15 .5 rushing attempts
Pacheco has rushed for at least 67 yards in eight of 17 games (47%), but he has also rushed for at least 62 yards in three others. He has also hit the mark in each of his last four games, during which time he has averaged a solid 96 rushing yards.
mccafrey over 69.5 rushing yards
total receive yards kelce over 49.5(i say take under)
pacheco total yards
TD scorer mccaffrey
Pacheco and CMC to each score at least two TD +2200 ----Love this — DK has +1100 and FD has it at +1800
Aiyuk O62.5 receiving
Kittle O46.5 receiving
Purdy rushing at 12.5 yards
link to original post



Yowza! Do you have like 30 separate bets all with action? I do. I’ll share sometime before game time. The only ‘thinking’ I have is that favor starters for ‘overs’ as in the ultimate game the coaches will trust the best players. And they all get boatloads of rest with silly long halftime break, and I think a few extra in game commercial breaks.
I also like the QBs over in rushing. No ‘saving yourself from injury’ in this game.
I’ll have a bunch of bets that are direct opposites. All depended on when and what the boosts/offers were.
ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
  • Threads: 19
  • Posts: 231
February 10th, 2024 at 3:41:31 AM permalink
Well if you let me know in the next 6 hours I can probably bet on it, otherwise good luck. ;)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 10th, 2024 at 8:23:34 AM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Well if you let me know in the next 6 hours I can probably bet on it, otherwise good luck. ;)
link to original post



Ok. What the heck. Not doing anything now anyway. These will be in ‘wins’, not ‘pays’

1. Mahomes O 258.5. Purdy O 246.5. Mahomes O 1.5 PASS TD. Purdy O 1.5 pass TD. Purdy O 11.5 rush. $5 wins $55
2. 49ers win SB. $50 wins $450

3. Chiefs + 3.5. Under 50.5. Pacheco O 49.5. $25 wins $87
4. Chiefs ML. Mahomes O 229.5. Purdy O 224.5. $25 wins $122
5. 49ers -2.5. U 47.5. $25 wins $88
6. 49ers -1.5. U 47.5. McCaffrey O 74.5. $25 wins $114
7. 49ers -1.5. McCaffrey U 114.5. Samuel U 84.5 (Rec). $25 wins $89
7A. McCaffrey O 84.5. Samuel O 9.5. Purdy O 4.5. $6 wins $15
7B. Chiefs O 18.5. 49ers O 16.5. BTTS FG. Gray O 14.5
$25 wins $98

8. Mahomes 0 25.5 Purdy O 12.5. Samuel U 16.5. $5 wins $21
9. Any 50 yard completion. $12 wins $24
9A. Chiefs ML. Mahomes 2 pass TD. $15 wins $30
9B. 49ers ML. Purdy 2 pass TD $15 wins $30
9C. Kittle and Kelce 1st Q reception. $20 wins $34.

1. Lose $5
2. Lose $50
3. Win $87
4. Win $122
5. Lose $25
6. Lose $25
7. Lose $25
7A. Lose $6
7B. Win $98
8. Lose $5. (Bad beat!!!)
9. Win $24
9A. Win $30
9B. Lose $15
9C. Lose $20

The bad beat was Purdy losing a yard on the kneel to get to OT

This page is +$185
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Feb 12, 2024
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 10th, 2024 at 8:34:26 AM permalink
10. Chiefs ML. Pacheco TD. Kelce 40 $10 wins $35
11. 49ers ML. McCaffrey TD. Little 40. $10 wins $35
12. Samuel and Rice each 1stQ R. $10 wins $10
13. Both teams a rushing TD. $10 wins $20
14. 49ers 10 first. $10 wins $15
15. McCaffrey 30 each half. $10 wins $12
16. Chiefs +2. $10 wins $9
17. Chiefs win SB. $10 wins $80

10. Lose $10
11. Lose $10
12. Win $10
13. Lose $10
14. Win $15
15. Win $12
16. Win $9
17. Win $80

This page is + $96
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Feb 12, 2024
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 10th, 2024 at 8:46:55 AM permalink
18. 49ers ML. Kittle>Kelce yards $3 wins $10
19. First KO both teams touchback $10 wins $8
20. Purdy pass Debo R McCaffrey rush O414.5. $4 wins $5
21. 49ers -0.5 1st H. Chiefs ML. $2 wins $13
22. McCaffrey 1st TD. $10 wins $31
23. 49ers ML. O 47.5. $10 wins $23
24. Chiefs win SB $50 wins $300
25. Chiefs win SB. (Free bet $25) wins $163.

I thought I had more!

The yearlong bets I think I got free bets ($5) for each regular season win. Some of the other bets also gave me free bets or boosts for making the bet. And most of the $25 bets I used a profit boost of one type or another.

I’m sure I’ll get another 5-10 bets in depending on new offers.

18. Lose $10
19. Win $8
20. Lose $4
21. Win $13.
22. Win $31
23. Lose $10
24. Win $300
25. Win $163

This page is +491
Last edited by: SOOPOO on Feb 12, 2024
ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
  • Threads: 19
  • Posts: 231
February 11th, 2024 at 2:43:26 PM permalink
The sports book I went to didn't allow any parlay tickets, no robin tickets, or anything but straight 1 for 1 tickets. Is this normal? IGT machines btw. Maybe I messed something up but tried it on multiple machines, different inputs, etc. Ended up taking a couple of the longshot type bets but I didn't see much logic in betting say $20 to win $15-30 for a lot of the bets. Was very disappointing overall but even if I hit just one ticket it's a couple hundred bucks in profit and worth the trip. Maybe one day soon Congress will make it a federal thing instead of this state by state bs.

Ended up playing craps and winning $250 off of a 3-Point Dolly with full odds strat, just 20-30 minutes of gametime.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10833
February 11th, 2024 at 3:01:46 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

The sports book I went to didn't allow any parlay tickets, no robin tickets, or anything but straight 1 for 1 tickets. Is this normal? IGT machines btw. Maybe I messed something up but tried it on multiple machines, different inputs, etc. Ended up taking a couple of the longshot type bets but I didn't see much logic in betting say $20 to win $15-30 for a lot of the bets. Was very disappointing overall but even if I hit just one ticket it's a couple hundred bucks in profit and worth the trip. Maybe one day soon Congress will make it a federal thing instead of this state by state bs.

Ended up playing craps and winning $250 off of a 3-Point Dolly with full odds strat, just 20-30 minutes of gametime.
link to original post



Where are you?
ChallengedMilly
ChallengedMilly
Joined: Jul 25, 2021
  • Threads: 19
  • Posts: 231
February 11th, 2024 at 5:01:15 PM permalink
It was Two Kings near Charlotte, small tribal thing for now. So it wasn't one of the bigger books. It seems they're acting as their own book as well from looking at the tickets.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 5408
February 11th, 2024 at 5:31:06 PM permalink
They have a book?
Last I heard, they were just a few trailers full of slots.
May the cards fall in your favor.

  • Jump to: