Sports betting chatter

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

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I personally think the Cowboys' should be somewhere between -13 to -13.5 for this matchup***.
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Note: This estimate assumes D Henry ("Doubtful") is in, as I haven't worked out an estimate for him yet (if he is out, obviously it will make the 'boys estimated spread better than -13.5).
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Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.

Anyone play the 10 pt teaser parlays? WH you can bet off the board getting additional 10 pts either on the sides or total but you must pick 3 legs and you lay minus 120. I have been having pretty good success with these parlays. Even for those who buy an extra half point you lay more juice.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

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link to original post

I personally think the Cowboys' should be somewhere between -13 to -13.5 for this matchup***.
(snip)
Note: This estimate assumes D Henry ("Doubtful") is in, as I haven't worked out an estimate for him yet (if he is out, obviously it will make the 'boys estimated spread better than -13.5).
link to original post

Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
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It seems like Titans would actually forfeit the game if they were allowed to. They are more likely to hand the ball off to me than Derrick Henry.
FanDuel hooked me with Cowboys ML/ Prescott o 199.5 passing yards at even money. Alerted a friend who suggested if Cowboys up big Prescott might not even play second half. So chicken shit me hedged with bet on Prescott under 237.5. I win a little if over 237.5. Win a lot is between 200 and 237. Lose a little if under 200. And lose a lot if Cowboys lose and over 237.5!

I have one parlay including Willis rushing yards so hopefully that leg is ignored. I think if he plays one snap I lose that entire parlay!

Until I started this betting journey I wasn’t aware of how much ‘information’ that I may not be privy to is out there!


Just checked. Line is now 14!!!

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
link to original post

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link to original post

I personally think the Cowboys' should be somewhere between -13 to -13.5 for this matchup***.
(snip)
Note: This estimate assumes D Henry ("Doubtful") is in, as I haven't worked out an estimate for him yet (if he is out, obviously it will make the 'boys estimated spread better than -13.5).
link to original post

Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
link to original post

It seems like Titans would actually forfeit the game if they were allowed to. They are more likely to hand the ball off to me than Derrick Henry.
FanDuel hooked me with Cowboys ML/ Prescott o 199.5 passing yards at even money. Alerted a friend who suggested if Cowboys up big Prescott might not even play second half. So chicken shit me hedged with bet on Prescott under 237.5. I win a little if over 237.5. Win a lot is between 200 and 237. Lose a little if under 200. And lose a lot if Cowboys lose and over 237.5!

I have one parlay including Willis rushing yards so hopefully that leg is ignored. I think if he plays one snap I lose that entire parlay!

Until I started this betting journey I wasn’t aware of how much ‘information’ that I may not be privy to is out there!


Just checked. Line is now 14!!!
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I got a "nice chunk of a bet" at the new line of 14.5:
The 'dog was +14.5 @ $1.93
The Fav' was -14.5 @ $2.15
Even though I still want the 'Boys to beat the 10.5 spread, the best result for me is if they win by 11-14 (as I win an extra $650^^^ in that scenario).

^^^: If we treat my earlier bet separate from these ones, then I basically got $400 on the Titans' +14.5 @ +162.5 (lose 400 or win 650).

Quote: Vegasrider

Anyone play the 10 pt teaser parlays? WH you can bet off the board getting additional 10 pts either on the sides or total but you must pick 3 legs and you lay minus 120. I have been having pretty good success with these parlays. Even for those who buy an extra half point you lay more juice.
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I haven't played teasers' in a while, but it should be just a "+ play", if you think the odds for each leg are ~ -450 (or better).

----
Comment(s);
. Check the "Teaser / NFL" section on the WoO for an idea of what they were worth for that period of data used.
. Generally you should follow the tips there (for example don't cross^^^ the zero, if teasing the Favorite).
^^^: The only possible exceptions to this could be:
. if you are teasing a "-3 pt Fav' and manage to get +7.5" or
. if you are teasing a "-7 pt Fav' and manage to get +3.5" (???)

???: Again, haven't looked at teasers' in a while, so I don't know if these possible exceptions are + value or not.

Quote: ksdjdj

Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
link to original post

How do you even give a rating to Dobbs? He has only been on the team for a week. I remember him playing pretty well in the Senior bowl about 5 years ago but I don't really remember him playing at all since then.

Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

Update: With news### of J Dobbs being in at QB, I have the "fair line" around -12.5 to -13*** for the Cowboys', as I have him slightly better ^^^ than the other backup QB.
###
***: Again, this figure is with D Henry ("Doubtful") healthy and playing in the game.
^^^: Obviously, not by much, though.
link to original post

How do you even give a rating to Dobbs? He has only been on the team for a week. I remember him playing pretty well in the Senior bowl about 5 years ago but I don't really remember him playing at all since then.
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Like most things, if you haven't seen them play much (or at all) in the NFL, they are closer to a "guess" than an actual rating.

Note 1: On paper at least, "he can't be worse" than the way M Willis is playing, ATM.
Note 2: I was "way off" early in the season with the current QB for the Seahawks' , though (and maybe some others' ?).

It basically worked out for me last night. The parlay with Willis was a 6 legger which became a 5 legger and won. Had other parlays including Gallup, Shultz, and Lamb over yards which also all hit. The bets I lost were my hedges….
I did misinterpret the Willis benching/Dobbs playing angle. When I first heard about it I thought they were just tanking the game. Not realizing they were just looking for someone better than Willis!

So what odds could you have gotten pre season on a Purdy-Dobbs Super Bowl?!? Around the same likelihood as 18 yo’s in a row!

Quote: SOOPOO

It basically worked out for me last night. The parlay with Willis was a 6 legger which became a 5 legger and won. Had other parlays including Gallup, Shultz, and Lamb over yards which also all hit. The bets I lost were my hedges….
I did misinterpret the Willis benching/Dobbs playing angle. When I first heard about it I thought they were just tanking the game. Not realizing they were just looking for someone better than Willis!

So what odds could you have gotten pre season on a Purdy-Dobbs Super Bowl?!? Around the same likelihood as 18 yo’s in a row!
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I think the Titans played "pretty well" overall, and the only real "negative" (besides losing) was the penalty differential^^^.

^^^; Just going by the Yards Per Play, Total Yards etc, I would have guessed the score should have been ~21-19, to the 'Boys.

Note / Reminder: A few Titans Players' were basically "auditioning for a spot on one of the other 31 teams", so in other words trying to put in their "best effort", in that game.

I hit another 3 leg 10 pt teaser parlay yesterday. Two of the 3 teams covered on the regular line but the additional 10 pts I got with Florida St got me the W. All they needed to do was win, I had Dallas laying 2.5 and Huskies. Getting 13 against Texas.