SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 9796
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:44:34 AM permalink
Bills went from 1 point fave yesterday to 2.5 now. Iím hoping that means Ďsmartí money is coming in on Bills. I have all sorts of (probably stupid) prop bets on generally high scoring/high passing game.

2022 summary. Up on all 5. Around what Iíd make if I worked at McDonalds full time.
Made Diamond on Caesars
Made Gold on DraftKings.
Lowest on BetMG.
Level 3 (does you nothing) on BetRivers
FanDuel doesnít seem to have anything at my level.

After today no gambling as Florida is not New York State. Resume February.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 84
  • Posts: 10110
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:47:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



After today no gambling as Florida is not New York State. Resume February.



Don't rub it in. Betting the bowls and NCAA Basketball tournament are my favorite times of the year.
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 9796
January 2nd, 2023 at 1:56:31 PM permalink
DRich must be in heaven! Tulane AMAZING comeback against USC.
Another coach, considered great, blowing it. Lincoln Riley has his QB hand off ball 4 yards deep in end zone. You guessed it. Safety. Was up 8 before safety so worst they could have been without safety is a tie. Have QB attempt quick pass x 3. Clock was not a factor. Somehow the Neanderthals think running ball up the middle for maybe 1 yard is a good call.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 84
  • Posts: 10110
January 2nd, 2023 at 2:04:44 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

DRich must be in heaven! Tulane AMAZING comeback against USC.
Another coach, considered great, blowing it. Lincoln Riley has his QB hand off ball 4 yards deep in end zone. You guessed it. Safety. Was up 8 before safety so worst they could have been without safety is a tie. Have QB attempt quick pass x 3. Clock was not a factor. Somehow the Neanderthals think running ball up the middle for maybe 1 yard is a good call.
link to original post



It was an exciting comeback. I thought the should have brought the QB under center and done a QB sneak.

Now, we just need the Utes to win the Rose Bowl to complete my day.
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 9796
January 2nd, 2023 at 3:57:47 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

DRich must be in heaven! Tulane AMAZING comeback against USC.
Another coach, considered great, blowing it. Lincoln Riley has his QB hand off ball 4 yards deep in end zone. You guessed it. Safety. Was up 8 before safety so worst they could have been without safety is a tie. Have QB attempt quick pass x 3. Clock was not a factor. Somehow the Neanderthals think running ball up the middle for maybe 1 yard is a good call.
link to original post



It was an exciting comeback. I thought the should have brought the QB under center and done a QB sneak.

Now, we just need the Utes to win the Rose Bowl to complete my day.
link to original post



Iím now all in on the Bills. Allen 250yds passing/ Bills money line is +325 on BetMGM.
Frankly, I had planned on betting on the Bengals. Figure the $$$ Iíd hope to lose would be insignificant compared to joy of Bills victory.

I have a bunch of yearlong bets on the Bills that this game basically will decide.
Diggs over 100 receptions. (Already won)
Bills 6-0 versus AFC East. (Already lost).
Bills Super Bowl win (got 11-1!)
Bills #1 AFC seed. (They need to win both remaining games)
Bills best regular season record. (If they win both worst I can do is a tie which is a win just reduced payout)
Josh Allen most passing yards. (More likely to see those 18 yoís in a row now.). He was actually leading after I think the 11th week, then Mahomes crushed him.
2000 yards rushing for Singletary/Allen/Cook. 99% chance. They only need around 110 with two games to go.


Bills 31. Bengals 30. Allen 301 yds. Burrow 326 yards. Both Allen and Burrow rush for a TD.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2386
January 2nd, 2023 at 4:01:19 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Anyone play the 10 pt teaser parlays? WH you can bet off the board getting additional 10 pts either on the sides or total but you must pick 3 legs and you lay minus 120. I have been having pretty good success with these parlays. Even for those who buy an extra half point you lay more juice.



Need the points to matter in 32% of games. Hard to find 10 points that can add up to that amount, since even 4, 6, 10, 14 are only to land 2.5 to 3% of the time. I think totals in the 30s to go over can be good bets in these, because these tend to have the biggest discrepancy between the median and mean. Think of a 1q team total of 0.5, there is still a very good chance the team could score 7 and go way over. Even endless three and out games can finish 16-13 or 14-13 and cover. Underdogs of 14 to 17 have been coming up recently that might be ok in some situations.

The +100 from the 2000s and the -110 from the 2010s were definitely a lot better.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 218
  • Posts: 5442
Thanks for this post from:
unJon
January 15th, 2023 at 1:32:27 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

________________


I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out

the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
link to original post




____________


I'm done - much work to find just one pick I like - need a break

hope you guys caught some winners


FINAL REPORT

spread & o/u_________18-13__________58% winners
moneyline_______7-2
all moneyline wagers paid out more than 1/2 and most paid much more

based on 1 unit bets

40 units bet
21.22 units won
15 lost
net profit + 6.22 units

R.O.I. = 15.5%


all picks are documented and time stamped at the link above


.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 9796
January 15th, 2023 at 2:53:55 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster

________________


I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out

the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
link to original post




____________


I'm done - much work to find just one pick I like - need a break

hope you guys caught some winners


FINAL REPORT

spread & o/u_________18-13__________58% winners
moneyline_______7-2
all moneyline wagers paid out more than 1/2 and most paid much more

based on 1 unit bets

40 units bet
21.22 units won
15 lost
net profit + 6.22 units

R.O.I. = 15.5%


all picks are documented and time stamped at the link above


.
link to original post

thatís good! Do you think what you do is repeatable? Are you planning on killing it next year as well?

I almost hit 48% on my even money type bets..
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 218
  • Posts: 5442
January 15th, 2023 at 4:12:49 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster

________________


I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out

the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
link to original post




____________


I'm done - much work to find just one pick I like - need a break

hope you guys caught some winners


FINAL REPORT

spread & o/u_________18-13__________58% winners
moneyline_______7-2
all moneyline wagers paid out more than 1/2 and most paid much more

based on 1 unit bets

40 units bet
21.22 units won
15 lost
net profit + 6.22 units

R.O.I. = 15.5%


all picks are documented and time stamped at the link above


.
link to original post

thatís good! Do you think what you do is repeatable? Are you planning on killing it next year as well?

I almost hit 48% on my even money type bets..
link to original post




well, I now have between the old ones and these - 74 documented picks out there now - and also many others that I didn't publicly post
it could just be luck but I would bet I could repeat something similar
not sure I want to - as I said it was a lot of work - it was fun for a few weeks then it got real tiring - 95% of the lines - I can't find anything that interests me - they're real tight
thanks for the kind words


.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 231
  • Posts: 14648
January 15th, 2023 at 4:48:40 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: lilredrooster

________________


I'm making some NBA picks on this site (linked) if anybody wants to check it out

the last time I made hoops picks here - 5 years ago - (linked) - I crushed - although I only made 34 picks

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=173986
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/29749-b-ball-picks-2017-2018/9/
link to original post




____________


I'm done - much work to find just one pick I like - need a break

hope you guys caught some winners


FINAL REPORT

spread & o/u_________18-13__________58% winners
moneyline_______7-2
all moneyline wagers paid out more than 1/2 and most paid much more

based on 1 unit bets

40 units bet
21.22 units won
15 lost
net profit + 6.22 units

R.O.I. = 15.5%


all picks are documented and time stamped at the link above


.
link to original post

thatís good! Do you think what you do is repeatable? Are you planning on killing it next year as well?

I almost hit 48% on my even money type bets..
link to original post




well, I now have between the old ones and these - 74 documented picks out there now - and also many others that I didn't publicly post
it could just be luck but I would bet I could repeat something similar
not sure I want to - as I said it was a lot of work - it was fun for a few weeks then it got real tiring - 95% of the lines - I can't find anything that interests me - they're real tight
thanks for the kind words


.
link to original post





Why not treat it as work and schedule regular vacations from it.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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