Sports betting chatter

Haven’t posted for a while as missed a month due to being in Florida. Ended 2022 up $XX,XXX. Probably right in line with what my guessed EV would be.
First few days back few opportunities. Really only modest offers on NBA and CBB. DK is having the ‘up 10 you win’ on NBA . I’ve taken 3 underdogs and are 2/3, with one being an up 10 team that lost the game. Yesterday was sweet spot in CBB. Had to pick either UNC+1.5 or Duke -1.5 first half. Picked UNC. Then +EV offer on Duke/Creighton/Kentucky parlay became available. So was hoping for Duke to be up 1 at halftime and win game. They did. And Creighton and Kentucky also squeaked out wins. Not big money but made around $200 total.
Bad beat on Knicks. Had them +2.5/over. Over hit early. They are up 3 with a second to go. They lose by a lot in OT….

My 2022 sports betting

Online Sports betting went legal in NY in 2022. I signed up for Caesar’s sports book early and got the super lucrative $3300 promo. I knew it wouldn’t last and it didn’t. I sacrificed some amount of value from not knowing exactly what to do but it’s better than waiting when they dropped their promo to something like $1000. Got lucrative promos from PointsBet and DraftKings. Smaller promos from BetRivers, MGM, ResortsWorldBet and Wynn.

I signed up for a service that provides real time odds. I signed up Feb 1 and it just hit 1 year. For my first year using that data, my all time low was $500 down (the first week) and all time high was a little over $5000 profit. Total after 1 year was up $1800 (just based on that service. I keep track of sign up bonuses and one time promos separately). NBA was super super profitable. NHL was unbelievably unprofitable. Baseball started out profitable and then way down and ended the season a negligible amount down. At one point I went from $5k up to Down $4.5k in about a month. Had a real bad streak in the late spring.

I did manage to parlay the bets into Caesar’s diamond plus. That has real benefits. Free bets each month, no resort fees (I stayed at Caesar’s properties about 8 nights in 2022 after getting diamond and saved about $45 each night). I’ve had 4 laurel lounge visits with a guest. Plus I do put value into diamond lines. I hate waiting in line. As someone who was a super low player that never had higher than the base card it’s been nice.

I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.

Quote: TinMan

My 2022 sports betting


I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.

Are you saying you are limited on ANY NBA bet to $20 or just their promos/specials/odds boosts/etc…?

I am limited on the offers, but to my knowledge, not on any regular bets.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TinMan

My 2022 sports betting


I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.

Are you saying you are limited on ANY NBA bet to $20 or just their promos/specials/odds boosts/etc…?

I am limited on the offers, but to my knowledge, not on any regular bets.
link to original post

My default MGM bet is $50 (it auto populates at $50). I try to bet $50 on every bet I make. 99/100 times I’ll get a message saying $50 is over my limit and offering something like $18.34 or $22.89. Not just promos. Regular sides and totals and player props. Everyone once in awhile I can get down $50 but it’s rare. Typically it’s the Same around $20 limit for other sports too (except soccer where it’s usually lower)

Quote: TinMan

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TinMan

My 2022 sports betting


I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.

Are you saying you are limited on ANY NBA bet to $20 or just their promos/specials/odds boosts/etc…?

I am limited on the offers, but to my knowledge, not on any regular bets.
link to original post

My default MGM bet is $50 (it auto populates at $50). I try to bet $50 on every bet I make. 99/100 times I’ll get a message saying $50 is over my limit and offering something like $18.34 or $22.89. Not just promos. Regular sides and totals and player props. Everyone once in awhile I can get down $50 but it’s rare. Typically it’s the Same around $20 limit for other sports too (except soccer where it’s usually lower)
link to original post

Interesting. I’m pretty sure that only happens to me on their ‘Lions Boost’ offers. Which hit yesterday (Warriors win by 10 or less).

Lots of Super Bowl offers. All slightly +EV. I can use Hurts to run for 1st TD. Then Pacheco catches one of Mahomes 3 TD passes. While Hurts only throws one TD. In a high scoring Chiefs win. After a touchback on the opening kickoff. Chiefs 32, Eagles 24. (I have2,4 in a free square game…). Oh, and Gronk can make that FG!

Am I asking for too much?

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TinMan

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TinMan

My 2022 sports betting


I have been limited at several books. That sucks especially for the ones where I’m not really a big winner. I think on MGM their stats show me up less than $1000 but I can only get like $20 max down on most NBA bets now. Soccer is like $5 sometimes. Oh well.

Are you saying you are limited on ANY NBA bet to $20 or just their promos/specials/odds boosts/etc…?

I am limited on the offers, but to my knowledge, not on any regular bets.
link to original post

My default MGM bet is $50 (it auto populates at $50). I try to bet $50 on every bet I make. 99/100 times I’ll get a message saying $50 is over my limit and offering something like $18.34 or $22.89. Not just promos. Regular sides and totals and player props. Everyone once in awhile I can get down $50 but it’s rare. Typically it’s the Same around $20 limit for other sports too (except soccer where it’s usually lower)
link to original post

Interesting. I’m pretty sure that only happens to me on their ‘Lions Boost’ offers. Which hit yesterday (Warriors win by 10 or less).

Lots of Super Bowl offers. All slightly +EV. I can use Hurts to run for 1st TD. Then Pacheco catches one of Mahomes 3 TD passes. While Hurts only throws one TD. In a high scoring Chiefs win. After a touchback on the opening kickoff. Chiefs 32, Eagles 24. (I have2,4 in a free square game…). Oh, and Gronk can make that FG!

Am I asking for too much?
link to original post

Just found this post! Hurts ran for 1st TD! Pacheco TD as well. Mahomes threw for 3 TDs. Hurts threw for one TD. There was a touchback on the opening kickoff. And Chiefs won in a high scoring game. Hit EVERY one!

Tonight I think FD has a pretty positive EV offer. Embiid and Mitchell to combine for 60 points is +175. If you would have made me guess I’d have put fair odds at -120! Embiid has averaged over 33 points a game, with some low scores in games he hasn’t been needed in the 4th quarter. This is an even matchup so unlikely a blowout either way. Mitchell has averaged over 27 this season, but around 35 three games. Before that he was injured and his minutes were just being ramped up. I’m sure in games he’s played fully he’s averaging over 30.

They had similar offer yesterday. Antetokuonpo over 24.5, Booker over 19.5. Holiday over 14.5. All made it easily. I think it was +150.

Prediction…. Embiid 35. Mitchell 30.

I hope others jumped in. 62 points.

Quote: SOOPOO

I hope others jumped in. 62 points.
link to original post

very nice call - definitely per your analysis it looks like you had a very big edge

I wonder why that happened______?__________was it a mistake__________?_______________or do the books sometimes deliberately post a very few good bets knowing that the vast majority will still be net losers_______?

who knows____?______not me


.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

I hope others jumped in. 62 points.
link to original post

very nice call - definitely per your analysis it looks like you had a very big edge

I wonder why that happened______?__________was it a mistake__________?_______________or do the books sometimes deliberately post a very few good bets knowing that the vast majority will still be net losers_______?

who knows____?______not me


.
link to original post

Sometimes, especially DraftKings, they offer clear +EV bets. They’ve had a few recently where a pick’em game…. they offer + 150 on either side. The recent Lebron James offers were also clearly +EV.

Last night I lost on one as I had Antetokuonpo to score at least 25….. He got injured early. Shit happens!

A whole slew of various + EV bets on Kansas /Baylor game. In summary, the only way I can lose is if Kansas wins by exactly 4.
I win the most if they win by exactly 5. All other results I win a small amount.

Today Alabama/Arizona/Providence parlay at + odds. Should be slight - odds. I hedged a small bit on Villanova +3.5 over Providence. So rooting for pProvidence 70, Villanova 69.