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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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June 3rd, 2024 at 8:01:54 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

McNeil not even playing. His sub is 3 for 3 already.

DraftKings still doing the ‘up 2 you win’ promo. Cards were + 155 underdog…. just scored 2 in top of the first. Cha Ching.
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Ae you limited on the number of bets you can make on that promo? What is the betting limit?
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One a day. Alas, for me I’m maxed out at $10. EV probably around $2. I usually take the biggest road underdog. They bat first.
lilredrooster
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odiousgambit
June 7th, 2024 at 3:49:05 AM permalink
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at the present time my theory of underdogs against same division rivals having an edge is going down the tubes
in my tracking of the 2nd 100 (for me) - they are currently 7-20 and down 843 - they're getting crushed - completely different than my first tracking of 81 games where they went 43-38 with an r.o.i. of 18%
I will keep tracking until I get 100 - maybe things will turn around
but right now it doesn't look good at all

back to the ole drawing board

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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June 8th, 2024 at 3:34:16 AM permalink
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gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone

he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country

he's a closer who comes running late

with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention


there will be $ millions bet on on this one race

2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist


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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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June 8th, 2024 at 5:37:36 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone

he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country

he's a closer who comes running late

with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention


there will be $ millions bet on on this one race

2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist


.
link to original post



I used to follow horse racing a little. Now even less. I have a friend who now lives in Saratoga who asked me (foolish) for a tip on the Belmont. He said he was going to the race. I figured he was driving down to Belmont. (Where SOOPOO worked as a Pinkerton in 1979!). Until your post I had no idea it was being run in Saratoga. I gave him ‘Dornoch’ as my longshot pick…. because…. I golfed at Royal Dornoch in Scotland a few decades back.

No idea why, but my good +EV offers from BetMGM are vastly improved. Max bet is usually $50 now, and boosts are often 50%. And fewer restrictions, with maybe 3 a day.

All the Caitlin Clark offers hit yesterday. Seems like this will be my plan. When she’s playing a good team, bet her under. When a bad team, bet her over.

I sometimes do bridge jumper bets. Royals were down 7-0 early to Mariners. Was going to take Mariners at -5000, but jumped to -6500 so my bet wasn’t accepted. Lucky me! Royals 10-9.
unJon
unJon
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June 8th, 2024 at 7:06:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone

he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country

he's a closer who comes running late

with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention


there will be $ millions bet on on this one race

2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist


.
link to original post



I used to follow horse racing a little. Now even less. I have a friend who now lives in Saratoga who asked me (foolish) for a tip on the Belmont. He said he was going to the race. I figured he was driving down to Belmont. (Where SOOPOO worked as a Pinkerton in 1979!). Until your post I had no idea it was being run in Saratoga. I gave him ‘Dornoch’ as my longshot pick…. because…. I golfed at Royal Dornoch in Scotland a few decades back.

No idea why, but my good +EV offers from BetMGM are vastly improved. Max bet is usually $50 now, and boosts are often 50%. And fewer restrictions, with maybe 3 a day.

All the Caitlin Clark offers hit yesterday. Seems like this will be my plan. When she’s playing a good team, bet her under. When a bad team, bet her over.

I sometimes do bridge jumper bets. Royals were down 7-0 early to Mariners. Was going to take Mariners at -5000, but jumped to -6500 so my bet wasn’t accepted. Lucky me! Royals 10-9.
link to original post



Better to be lucky than good. Your friend owes you a beer for Dornoch.

Rooster, your safety play paid off. Weird start with Sierra Leone.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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June 9th, 2024 at 10:06:27 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone

he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country

he's a closer who comes running late

with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention


there will be $ millions bet on on this one race

2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist


.
link to original post



I used to follow horse racing a little. Now even less. I have a friend who now lives in Saratoga who asked me (foolish) for a tip on the Belmont. He said he was going to the race. I figured he was driving down to Belmont. (Where SOOPOO worked as a Pinkerton in 1979!). Until your post I had no idea it was being run in Saratoga. I gave him ‘Dornoch’ as my longshot pick…. because…. I golfed at Royal Dornoch in Scotland a few decades back.

No idea why, but my good +EV offers from BetMGM are vastly improved. Max bet is usually $50 now, and boosts are often 50%. And fewer restrictions, with maybe 3 a day.

All the Caitlin Clark offers hit yesterday. Seems like this will be my plan. When she’s playing a good team, bet her under. When a bad team, bet her over.

I sometimes do bridge jumper bets. Royals were down 7-0 early to Mariners. Was going to take Mariners at -5000, but jumped to -6500 so my bet wasn’t accepted. Lucky me! Royals 10-9.
link to original post



Better to be lucky than good. Your friend owes you a beer for Dornoch.

Rooster, your safety play paid off. Weird start with Sierra Leone.
link to original post



He admitted to me this morning he did NOT bet on Dornoch.

Said experience at track was ok, not great. Said Uber cost him more than entry ticket. Said in and out of the parking lots was over an hour. And you didn’t even get a mile and a half race….
TaxrBux
TaxrBux
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June 9th, 2024 at 10:34:01 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
at the present time my theory of underdogs against same division rivals having an edge is going down the tubes
in my tracking of the 2nd 100 (for me) - they are currently 7-20 and down 843 - they're getting crushed - completely different than my first tracking of 81 games where they went 43-38 with an r.o.i. of 18%
I will keep tracking until I get 100 - maybe things will turn around
but right now it doesn't look good at all

back to the ole drawing board

.
link to original post



Yeah, I noticed :-(. I've been doing the DK early win promo, and am like 2-5. I had $10 max bets for the first few, then $50 max for a couple of days, and now back to $10 🤷‍♂️.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 9th, 2024 at 1:38:10 PM permalink
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when I watch thoroughbred jockeys riding a horse like this -
I try to imagine what that would do to my back - even when I was much younger and in shape - if I tried to ride a horse like that
I think after trying it I would end up in bed in tremendous pain for at least a week

the obvious answer is that they can ride like that because they weigh so little - somewhere around 110 pounds
but I don't think that's really an answer

they don't get the attention that the athletes in major sports get
but the best of them are truly great athletes

they're some very tough little dudes
.

.



.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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June 10th, 2024 at 6:42:54 AM permalink
Perhaps my best day ever yesterday. (AboveEV, not absolute $ amount). (With boosts or promos…)
Scheffler (5-1) came through
Verstappen (slightly better than even money)
Doncic 1stFG (6-1)
Larson NASCAR (4-1)
Judge HR (3-1)
Hadwin top 5 (5-1)
Random 3 leg MLB (7-1)
Of course there were a bunch of losing bets, but overall +++

I had one 6 leg soccer parlay that I lost by 1 corner kick that was 20-1. I did hedge with 5 minutes to play so made $10 instead of $180.

STRANGE ending to Mavs/Celtics game. Celts up 7 with around 30 seconds to play. 99/100 times the Mavs would foul the Celtics player hoping for missed free throws. But they ran around and let the Celtics run out the 24 second clock. Then inbounded and let the rest of the clock run out. Had to be TERRIBLE for the bookies. It was easy to find Celtics -6.5 or Mavs +7.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 11th, 2024 at 5:00:51 AM permalink
message this morning after signing in to DK

>>>

Account Locked
Finish completing your account registration by visiting the DraftKings Sportsbook at either Tulalip Resort and Casino or Quil Ceda Creek Casino. You must present a state issued ID to the Sportsbook cashier to verify your identity. Please make sure you check the Sportsbook hours of operations before visiting. Once you have completed your registration, you will then be authorized to place wagers on property at either casino.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 11th, 2024 at 5:52:49 AM permalink
using my smartphone, everything seems normal, I even made some bets

I changed my password and waiting to sign in on my PC tomorrow, meanwhile checking email, to see if this was a glitch
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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odiousgambit
June 11th, 2024 at 1:38:05 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

message this morning after signing in to DK

>>>

Account Locked
Finish completing your account registration by visiting the DraftKings Sportsbook at either Tulalip Resort and Casino or Quil Ceda Creek Casino. You must present a state issued ID to the Sportsbook cashier to verify your identity. Please make sure you check the Sportsbook hours of operations before visiting. Once you have completed your registration, you will then be authorized to place wagers on property at either casino.
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Quote: odiousgambit

using my smartphone, everything seems normal, I even made some bets

I changed my password and waiting to sign in on my PC tomorrow, meanwhile checking email, to see if this was a glitch
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FWIW, It isn't just you. It appears there is something going on along the lines of a "glitch" or compatibility issue, involving the DraftKings geolocation software. Possibly specific to a particular desktop browser, but I'm not yet sure about that.

Are you using Chrome on a PC? I got a differently worded "I'm afraid I can't do that Dave!" error notice upon trying to sign in, with a vague statement that there was some kind of unspecified problem.. After a few failed attempts to get HAL to please open the pod bay door, I shut down the browser, cleared the cache, activated a VPN to become a virtual New Yorker instead of seated in the midwest, and then got a different message on sign-in telling me I must first download & install a new geolocation script before I could be allowed to visit my money. After doing so I was able to get into the account in the usual way without changing any of my usual login stuff.

After that, I got an immediate email from our cosmic overlords at Google:
Quote: Google, a.k.a. EvilEmpire/Skynet

Your file may violate Google Drive's Terms of Service

"Draftkings Sportsbook IL Player Location Check.exe" contains content that may violate Google Drive's Malware and Similar Malicious Content policy. Some features related to this file may have been restricted. If you think this is an error and would like the Trust & Safety team to review this file, request a review below.
Restricted file

Draftkings Sportsbook IL Player Location Check.exe

In spite of that thing about Google's disapproval of my download (and probably someone in The Silicon Empire also quietly noting deficiencies in the organization of my sock drawer) I am now once again able to wave hello at my DK money from my desk, but not to touch it - same as before. But some things about my circumstances are probably significantly different than yours.

My official residence is in the southwest in a State where sportsbetting is allowed, but I also have other homes at other places where I spend a lot of my time, I'm at one of those other places now, and this particular account happens to be based in Illinois - where I'm not. And I use this desktop machine only to check lines & wager status & balances & suchlike from my place located in a neighboring state where betting is not yet allowed, after accepting a DK popup notice that I understand that I can only "look around" but not wager from where I'm at. Then, I make a short drive over a State border with my phone when I wanna bet something, doing it from the DK mobile app. Using the mobile app in any way has never been possible for me from here, while it works without issues.when I cross the State border to wager. But I haven't yet done that since this morning's desktop kerfluffle.

I have no similar issues with other accounts. For example, FanDuel sportsbook continues to work normally trom the same desktop & browser & physical location.

Good luck.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on Jun 11, 2024
Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 11th, 2024 at 2:24:39 PM permalink
I'm using firefox, I could switch, but currently awaiting more info

no emails on the matter. Nothing in the news , I don't think
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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June 12th, 2024 at 8:31:38 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

message this morning after signing in to DK

>>>

Account Locked
Finish completing your account registration by visiting the DraftKings Sportsbook at either Tulalip Resort and Casino or Quil Ceda Creek Casino. You must present a state issued ID to the Sportsbook cashier to verify your identity. Please make sure you check the Sportsbook hours of operations before visiting. Once you have completed your registration, you will then be authorized to place wagers on property at either casino.
link to original post



I got on OK with my PC this morning , but DK wanted me to agree to a short list of emphasized, but not new, conditions, mostly about agreeing to not allow anyone else to use my account

I wouldn't think my account looked like it had that kind of activity.

No one else besides the two of us said anything about a glitch. Maybe not that many here have an account with DK

For sure the message I got yesterday was as weird as it gets.... go to Washington State locations and convince them there that I should be able to bet in a brick and mortar there. My account is in Virginia

In the computer age, it seems like you might get a weird pop-up message incorrectly stating the problem at anytime . Maybe this was a case of that
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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June 12th, 2024 at 10:24:09 AM permalink
.
the favorite/longshot bias has been well documented in horse racing -
there are many academic studies of it
the takeout in the win pool averages about 16%
but if you bet on all favorites - in the long run you would lose much less than indicated by the takeout
and if you bet on all longshots you would lose much more than indicated by the takeout

but is this true for sports betting________? - I'm referring to bets on the money line - not on the spread

I dunno - but I don't think so - I've never seen a study of it - googling got me nowhere

why might it be different in sports betting than in racing______?

my best guess is that the longshots in racing are generally much longer and more easily activate the risk love instinct in humans



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias#:~:text=In%20the%20long%20run%2C%20losing,was%20first%20discovered%20by%20Griffith.


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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June 12th, 2024 at 12:42:43 PM permalink
So I have a ‘live’ parlay going. BetRivers. $25 free bet to pay $105. I’ve won it already, even though the game isn’t over.
The three legs….
Over 7.5 runs. It’s 10-5 middle of 7th inning.
Gomber under 4.5 K’s. He had 3 and has already been removed from the game.
Lopez under 6.5 K’s. He had 5 and has already been removed from the game.
Buttttt….. the game is now in a rain delay middle of the 7th inning. I’m hoping somehow if the game is shortened my bet still stands. I don’t want to try and dig through their T and C’s to find out….
unJon
unJon
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June 12th, 2024 at 12:44:56 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So I have a ‘live’ parlay going. BetRivers. $25 free bet to pay $105. I’ve won it already, even though the game isn’t over.
The three legs….
Over 7.5 runs. It’s 10-5 middle of 7th inning.
Gomber under 4.5 K’s. He had 3 and has already been removed from the game.
Lopez under 6.5 K’s. He had 5 and has already been removed from the game.
Buttttt….. the game is now in a rain delay middle of the 7th inning. I’m hoping somehow if the game is shortened my bet still stands. I don’t want to try and dig through their T and C’s to find out….
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Typical T&C would turn the game total into a push if game doesn’t complete.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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