Thread Rating:

billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 245
  • Posts: 16888
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
August 15th, 2024 at 7:32:59 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: billryan

Quote: SOOPOO

Finally had a good night. Judge boosted HR bet. And also Soto boosted HR bet. Soto was over 4-1 which was juicy.

It’s interesting how one site might suck on SGP’s, but be better on golf. Another might suck on HR odds, but take less juice on tennis.

Needed at big underdog today. So taking a flyer on Nationals/under. Boosted got it up to +900 or so. (Need Nats to score at least 3 as well).

White Sox has an interim manager. Intentionally walked Soto to get to …. Aaron Judge! I think I fire him on the spot. I said so before….. Judge homered….
These guys just overthink this ‘lefty/righties’ stuff.
link to original post



Do you pitch to the guy with four home runs and two doubles in the last two games or walk him to get to Judge? There is no right answer, although I imagine Sizemore won't try that experiment again.
link to original post





I pitch to Soto. But of course not happily! Judge was hot as well, just walks, singles, and doubles.

Soto making himself a lot of $$$$$$ for next contract!
link to original post





I'd have walked both. Years ago, I was at a Little League Tournament in Mineola. A team was winning around 6-0 when the opponents got two men on base in front of the two best players in the tournament. The coach intentionally walked both of them, forcing in a run but it worked when the next guy made an out.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
August 15th, 2024 at 6:51:35 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Needed at big underdog today. So taking a flyer on Nationals/under. Boosted got it up to +900 or so. (Need Nats to score at least 3 as well).



If it wasn’t for the 9 early runs the Phillies scored I’d have been right in the mix.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
August 16th, 2024 at 12:25:03 PM permalink
Today I’m going all in on a pitcher prop. Arighetti has 13/12/8 strikeouts his last 3 starts. I got plus odds on him getting 7 or more. Last time I felt this strongly the pitcher got ZERO strikeouts….
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
August 17th, 2024 at 7:32:19 AM permalink
.
I'll try on another prop
Cubs over 4.5 runs +105 on DraftKings
they average 4.22 runs per game

the Jays Chris Bassitt got bombed last time out and in his last 5 games he's allowed 22 runs in 26 innings pitched

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 17, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
August 17th, 2024 at 2:22:47 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
I'll try on another prop
Cubs over 4.5 runs +105 on DraftKings
they average 4.22 runs per game

the Jays Chris Bassitt got bombed last time out and in his last 5 games he's allowed 22 runs in 26 innings pitched

.
link to original post



Bad news for you. Cubs is my best bet of the night.

On a more serious note, it appears that when I think a line is ‘wrong’, what’s probably wrong is my assessment.
I think I’m going back to my initial tack.
I look at all 5 sites. And whatever site I need to bet on to take advantage of a bonus or boost, I bet the game with best odds relative to the other sites.
As an example, if 4 sites have a team at +150 but the site I need has it at +160, I’ll take it.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
August 18th, 2024 at 5:41:48 AM permalink
.
tanked yesterday -
no problem
I'll go with the ole martingale - double up and get ahead
just kidding

Jake Burger - Marlins - over 1.5 hits, runs and rbis - 125 DraftKings

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 22nd, 2024 at 10:45:31 AM permalink
Apparently, I made a terrible bet. I took New Mexico +9.5 and the line is currently New Mexico +13.5

If this was the middle of the season I would be firing hard on it getting an extra 4 points. Since it is week 1 and I did very little research I will just sit on it.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
August 23rd, 2024 at 4:48:37 AM permalink
.
some excitement coming tomorrow in horse racing which is in decline and badly needs some excitement
Thorpedo Anna is a fabulous 3 year old filly who was won 4 graded stakes in a row - 3 of them grade 1s - she will try to be the first filly since 1915, more than 100 years ago, to win the Travers stakes
she's 3/1 on the morning line and has some tough competition
at 1.25 miles it will be tough for her to win - farther by 1/8th then she's ever gone before
I will make a wimpy Place bet on Dornach who won the Belmont Stakes at 1.25 miles (shortened by .25 miles because it had to be run at Saratoga)
I expect Thorpedo Anna to be overbet by the public because she's a filly - prices on others in the money may be better because of that - especially if she's out of the money

.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/23/business/travers-stakes-thorpedo-anna.html

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 23, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
August 24th, 2024 at 4:24:18 AM permalink
.
where's Soopoo______?
he hasn't posted in about a week
he usually posts almost every day - his picks
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
August 24th, 2024 at 6:36:41 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
where's Soopoo______?
he hasn't posted in about a week
he usually posts almost every day - his picks
.
link to original post



I’m here. Plodding along. Been making $$ on Judge. But overall my baseball picks have been dismal. Do have one good golf pick cooking. After round 1 got Bradley as top American around +400. Also after Scott finished up I have him to win at +225. And won (minimal) on him to lead after 2nd round at -5000. Bradley had a chance to beat him but faded last few holes.
Baseball best bet today is Cubs/Marlins under 8.5.
I got Del St under 56.5. And also over 55.5. Both boosted so win a few dollars any result. But if exactly 56 I win enough to …. pay for nice dinner with wifey.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 25th, 2024 at 5:17:04 AM permalink
In all four of the major college football games yesterday the underdogs covered the spread.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9715
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
August 25th, 2024 at 11:58:08 AM permalink
after a dismal period of 'meh' offers, seems to me DK and Betrivers are cranking it up for football. Those are my two now for online sportsbook.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 25th, 2024 at 12:56:23 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

after a dismal period of 'meh' offers, seems to me DK and Betrivers are cranking it up for football. Those are my two now for online sportsbook.
link to original post



I am not getting any promos yet for football, I was expecting them this weekend. I am only with Hard Rock Bet.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
August 26th, 2024 at 2:17:00 PM permalink
My picks have generally sucked as of late. But I’ve been winning due to ‘Lion’s Boosts’ and ‘FanDuel boosts’ which have done quite well recently. Today I went to bet the MGM Lions boost and found I’m limited to….. $4.28! They are still giving me a few daily profit boosts which I’m limited to $50, so not sure of the severe Lions Boost limit.
BetRivers has also improved A LOT as of late. Parlay insurance for WNBA, MLB, and EPL. Very easy to make +EV.
I’ve made VERY FEW tier credits on Caesars this year. At least next few days they are giving 10x tier credits. I’m using Caesars -EV bets as my hedge for all my +EV bets on the other sites.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 30th, 2024 at 12:41:25 PM permalink
I like Temple +43.5 tonight
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
August 31st, 2024 at 1:31:14 PM permalink
Oh well. BetRivers has ended my gravy train from them. I have now been limited to TWENTY FIVE CENTS for any of their house specials. And if I have a profit boost with a $50 max it will tell me…. $12 max, unless you submit for manual review. And they of course deny any bet sent for manual review. Also the slew of ‘parlay insurance’ offers all disappeared in one day. So I probably went from an EV of $25 a day to maybe $2 a day. I did have a customer support interaction where they obviously just tell the agent to lie. There was a lot more to it, but the most egregious lie was this…. I was denied a $1 bet to win $1.60. On a major event. They allowed me to bet a quarter to win 40 cents. The agent said ‘the Sportsbook sometimes wants to limit the action on certain bets’. Which is of course a euphemism for ‘we notice you have consistently beaten us month after month for the past two years’.
In the middle of all this they did give me a free birthday bet!
GenoDRPh
GenoDRPh
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 690
Joined: Aug 4, 2022
August 31st, 2024 at 3:11:08 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Oh well. BetRivers has ended my gravy train from them. I have now been limited to TWENTY FIVE CENTS for any of their house specials. And if I have a profit boost with a $50 max it will tell me…. $12 max, unless you submit for manual review. And they of course deny any bet sent for manual review. Also the slew of ‘parlay insurance’ offers all disappeared in one day. So I probably went from an EV of $25 a day to maybe $2 a day. I did have a customer support interaction where they obviously just tell the agent to lie. There was a lot more to it, but the most egregious lie was this…. I was denied a $1 bet to win $1.60. On a major event. They allowed me to bet a quarter to win 40 cents. The agent said ‘the Sportsbook sometimes wants to limit the action on certain bets’. Which is of course a euphemism for ‘we notice you have consistently beaten us month after month for the past two years’.
In the middle of all this they did give me a free birthday bet!
link to original post



Happy Birthday!
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 245
  • Posts: 16888
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
unJon
August 31st, 2024 at 3:27:29 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Oh well. BetRivers has ended my gravy train from them. I have now been limited to TWENTY FIVE CENTS for any of their house specials. And if I have a profit boost with a $50 max it will tell me…. $12 max, unless you submit for manual review. And they of course deny any bet sent for manual review. Also the slew of ‘parlay insurance’ offers all disappeared in one day. So I probably went from an EV of $25 a day to maybe $2 a day. I did have a customer support interaction where they obviously just tell the agent to lie. There was a lot more to it, but the most egregious lie was this…. I was denied a $1 bet to win $1.60. On a major event. They allowed me to bet a quarter to win 40 cents. The agent said ‘the Sportsbook sometimes wants to limit the action on certain bets’. Which is of course a euphemism for ‘we notice you have consistently beaten us month after month for the past two years’.
In the middle of all this they did give me a free birthday bet!
link to original post



Does it really matter if your EV has gone from $25 a day to $2? You aren't doing it for the money.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
August 31st, 2024 at 4:40:30 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: SOOPOO

Oh well. BetRivers has ended my gravy train from them. I have now been limited to TWENTY FIVE CENTS for any of their house specials. And if I have a profit boost with a $50 max it will tell me…. $12 max, unless you submit for manual review. And they of course deny any bet sent for manual review. Also the slew of ‘parlay insurance’ offers all disappeared in one day. So I probably went from an EV of $25 a day to maybe $2 a day. I did have a customer support interaction where they obviously just tell the agent to lie. There was a lot more to it, but the most egregious lie was this…. I was denied a $1 bet to win $1.60. On a major event. They allowed me to bet a quarter to win 40 cents. The agent said ‘the Sportsbook sometimes wants to limit the action on certain bets’. Which is of course a euphemism for ‘we notice you have consistently beaten us month after month for the past two years’.
In the middle of all this they did give me a free birthday bet!
link to original post



Does it really matter if your EV has gone from $25 a day to $2? You aren't doing it for the money.
link to original post



Yes and no. I won’t go broke without the BR money, but I really enjoyed it. At $2 a day I won’t enjoy it nearly as much. I can’t blame them. I, for whatever reason, just wish they would be honest! Just say we will not accept any players that play with an edge on us.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
September 1st, 2024 at 4:01:35 AM permalink
.
Soopoo - just curious if you don't mind my asking - is this kind of thing happening at other books too_____?

I'm referring to your experience with BetRivers that you detailed just above

and were you giving BetRivers significant action outside of the Bonus and free play stuff____?

thanks

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9715
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
September 1st, 2024 at 7:56:38 AM permalink
as you may remember, BetMGM gives me no offers at all ........ this for a couple of years now. I don't know if it was more for gaining a few hundred dollars on them [less than $1000, being a piker] or if I was because I was in the habit of withdrawing it once it amounted to something

I was wondering about DK but right now I'm getting good action now that football season has started

Betrivers, just not sure about where it's going to go with them. I do get offers

Caesars I just thought was a lousy site
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 1549
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
September 1st, 2024 at 10:41:03 AM permalink
I was on vacation for three weeks, so I was late seeing what SOOPOO reported. When I came back, BetRivers started limiting the maximum bet for my promo bets. I often get 50% odds boosts for use on major league sports, UFC, and auto sports. These are nominally $50 or $100 bets. When I tried to place a $100 boosted bet on NASCAR yesterday, the app said I was preapproved for a $1.70 max bet. I had an option to ask for the whole $100 bet to be approved manually. My bet was rejected in its entirety:

Single Rejected
Qualifying Winner: Reddick, Tyler (Winner)
Qualifying: Cook Out Southern 500
Odds: +325 (+488) Profit Boost
Wager: $100.00

I am not going to bother placing a $1.70 bet even at boosted odds. Sports are less than 1% of my promo value, so it is no big deal. Still, it is an indication that the promo departments are cutting back hard. I have been seeing a sharp decrease in quality and frequency of offers on the casino side, too.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
September 1st, 2024 at 10:46:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

I was on vacation for three weeks, so I was late seeing what SOOPOO reported. When I came back, BetRivers started limiting the maximum bet for my promo bets. I often get 50% odds boosts for use on major league sports, UFC, and auto sports. These are nominally $50 or $100 bets. When I tried to place a $100 boosted bet on NASCAR yesterday, the app said I was preapproved for a $1.70 max bet. I had an option to ask for the whole $100 bet to be approved manually. My bet was rejected in its entirety:

Single Rejected
Qualifying Winner: Reddick, Tyler (Winner)
Qualifying: Cook Out Southern 500
Odds: +325 (+488) Profit Boost
Wager: $100.00

I am not going to bother placing a $1.70 bet even at boosted odds. Sports are less than 1% of my promo value, so it is no big deal. Still, it is an indication that the promo departments are cutting back hard. I have been seeing a sharp decrease in quality and frequency of offers on the casino side, too.
link to original post


for others too
do they limit or restrict your bets in any way if you're not getting an odds boost or bonus or any kind of free play____________?

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 1549
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
September 1st, 2024 at 11:18:05 AM permalink
I was given three choices for this $100 money line wager.

Quote:


GB Packers Moneyline GB Packers vs PHI Eagles +125

Your wager of $100.00 needs approval. The highest pre-approved wager is $33.26.

1) Place pre-approved wager $33.26

2) Place $33.26 and send $66.74 for approval *

3) Send entire wager of $100.00 for approval *



For the spread, I was pre-approved for a wager of $50.09. The next thing you know, I will need preapproval for all my slot bets. I have won a lot of money on the slot side at BR, but I never bet or won much at the BR sports book.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
September 1st, 2024 at 11:31:17 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

I was given three choices for this $100 money line wager.

Quote:


GB Packers Moneyline GB Packers vs PHI Eagles +125

Your wager of $100.00 needs approval. The highest pre-approved wager is $33.26.

1) Place pre-approved wager $33.26

2) Place $33.26 and send $66.74 for approval *

3) Send entire wager of $100.00 for approval *



For the spread, I was pre-approved for a wager of $50.09. The next thing you know, I will need preapproval for all my slot bets. I have won a lot of money on the slot side at BR, but I never bet or won much at the BR sports book.
link to original post


based on this, assuming all or many legal online sports books operate this way then it appears that nobody could really make serious money with them

it looks like they're only good for entertainment value

I don't know for sure but I would guess they don't limit sports bets for individuals at b&m casinos in LV

on second thought - maybe they do - idk

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 1st, 2024 at 2:11:52 PM permalink
The only boosts I have been getting lately are 30% boost on single game parlays with three or more legs. I rarely make parlay bets as I am just happy to win one game.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 1st, 2024 at 3:07:15 PM permalink
So it looks like BetRivers must have done an analysis of who is betting them with boosts or promos, and just ended them. It’s hat I would have done if I was them. I’m still getting the same general offers from Caesars/BetMGM/FanDuel/DraftKings that I’ve been getting over the past year or so. But the BetRivers offers were the easiest and best of the bunch.

I did great on the Tour Championship. Basically had Theegala top 5, him to beat Schaufelle today, also had Im to win matchups today as an underdog also. And of course had Scheffler to win early on at plus odds boosted.

My (probably -EV) bet that I made was on the Bills to win 4 (or more) out of their 6 division games. 2-0 against Pats, 2-2 against Jets/Dolphins makes it a win.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 327
  • Posts: 9715
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
September 2nd, 2024 at 1:10:58 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So it looks like BetRivers must have done an analysis of who is betting them with boosts or promos, and just ended them.
link to original post

When all these outfits get AI involved in doing analysis, anybody playing offers the smart way is doomed

I would guess you got a BetRivers human looking into your record, since others are not reporting a problem. They seem lukewarm towards me, but offers are still coming

as far as AI, it's not just the "intelligence" that's needed, it's the ability to go through all the noise that someone's record contains and analyze. The cost to do it with humans is out of the question I think
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 2nd, 2024 at 7:50:23 AM permalink
I went 6-6 in college football this week but still eeked out about a $50 profit. Fortunately won some of the bigger ones and lost the smaller ones.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
Mental
September 2nd, 2024 at 7:58:00 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The cost to do it with humans is out of the question I think



Not if they would hire me. Eliminating my account saves them let’s say $10k a year. I could spot ‘me’ and others like me in a few minutes. Of course I’d have to look at maybe dozens to spot one ‘me’. No way to know for sure of course, but I’d have to imagine I’d find one or two ‘like me’ per hour. Maybe save them $100k for a day’s work. Maybe more. They know exactly how much I’ve won from them this year. Just send me all winners of over $1,000, say. I could clean the ‘like me’ crowd out in no time.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 2nd, 2024 at 8:15:42 AM permalink
Lots of offers today! College football (even though only one game!), US Open, MLB, and NFL. I’m doing it differently today. Giving up a bunch of EV to lock in wins. Plus getting decent money in on a site I’d like to bump up my ‘status’. Example is I have a $50 bet to pay $117 on a baseball under. And on the other site the over. $60 to pay $113. The first bet is boosted, the second bet is -EV. I either win $7 or $3. I have I think 5 such bets. One is a big dog, $50 to pay $416. So the other side is $360 to pay $413. Win $6 or $3. But I have the -EV second bet which shows me making a ‘stupid’ $360 bet. Maybe that gives me longevity there? (The underdog bet is boosted, of course).

My LONGSHOT pick of the day is Brewers -2.5/over 8. Boosted to +532. I think it’s + EV but no way to really tell.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 2nd, 2024 at 8:32:36 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



My LONGSHOT pick of the day is Brewers -2.5/over 8. Boosted to +532. I think it’s + EV but no way to really tell.



That sounds like +EV to me.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 2nd, 2024 at 9:56:59 AM permalink
MGM, like all the other books, offers a ‘1st TD scorer’ bet. I’m sure the included vig is high. But this year they said on ALL such bets they will refund your entire bet if your player doesn’t score first but scores second. I’ll be checking to see if they offer substantially lower odds than their competitors…
GenoDRPh
GenoDRPh
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 690
Joined: Aug 4, 2022
September 2nd, 2024 at 9:15:02 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Lots of offers today! College football (even though only one game!), US Open, MLB, and NFL. I’m doing it differently today. Giving up a bunch of EV to lock in wins. Plus getting decent money in on a site I’d like to bump up my ‘status’. Example is I have a $50 bet to pay $117 on a baseball under. And on the other site the over. $60 to pay $113. The first bet is boosted, the second bet is -EV. I either win $7 or $3. I have I think 5 such bets. One is a big dog, $50 to pay $416. So the other side is $360 to pay $413. Win $6 or $3. But I have the -EV second bet which shows me making a ‘stupid’ $360 bet. Maybe that gives me longevity there? (The underdog bet is boosted, of course).

My LONGSHOT pick of the day is Brewers -2.5/over 8. Boosted to +532. I think it’s + EV but no way to really tell.
link to original post



Hope you made money on the BC-FSU game! Go Eagles!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 3rd, 2024 at 7:35:26 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: SOOPOO

Lots of offers today! College football (even though only one game!), US Open, MLB, and NFL. I’m doing it differently today. Giving up a bunch of EV to lock in wins. Plus getting decent money in on a site I’d like to bump up my ‘status’. Example is I have a $50 bet to pay $117 on a baseball under. And on the other site the over. $60 to pay $113. The first bet is boosted, the second bet is -EV. I either win $7 or $3. I have I think 5 such bets. One is a big dog, $50 to pay $416. So the other side is $360 to pay $413. Win $6 or $3. But I have the -EV second bet which shows me making a ‘stupid’ $360 bet. Maybe that gives me longevity there? (The underdog bet is boosted, of course).

My LONGSHOT pick of the day is Brewers -2.5/over 8. Boosted to +532. I think it’s + EV but no way to really tell.
link to original post



Hope you made money on the BC-FSU game! Go Eagles!
link to original post



Made a total of $9. $6 as listed above and $3 on a similar play.
But did hit my Brewers game for around $266.

I have Duke over 35.5 and Duke under 37. I make $5 or so no matter which hits. If it’s exactly 36 I can retire (again). Do very well on 37 too.

To night parlayed both Mets and Red Sox pitchers under 5.5 K’s. They combined for 19….

Kinda feel sad…. Withdrew $$$$ from BetRivers account today. No reason to keep much $$$ there as my bets are now limited to paltry amounts. The funny thing is they have these ‘specials’. Very few are actually +EV. But I’m automatically throttled on those to less than a dollar.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
September 4th, 2024 at 4:02:24 AM permalink
.
NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow


I surmised that the first 2 weeks would be very unpredictable and that unpredictability would favor the underdogs
I have now tracked the first 2 weeks of 11 seasons - about 350 games - and the dogs have won just over 57% for about a 9% r.o.i. (pushes not considered)
in the 11 years I tracked the faves have never had a winning year - they did tie one year which caused a slight loss due to the vig
this is related to the Wizard's tracking of thousands of games and showing all underdogs losing only a tiny % and road dogs being slightly profitable - see link
my goal was to improve on that r.o.i. with selectivity
a couple of people at another forum made $ with this last season when I first posted it

.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 1549
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
September 4th, 2024 at 6:24:26 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Kinda feel sad…. Withdrew $$$$ from BetRivers account today. No reason to keep much $$$ there as my bets are now limited to paltry amounts. The funny thing is they have these ‘specials’. Very few are actually +EV. But I’m automatically throttled on those to less than a dollar.
link to original post


https://seekingalpha.com/news/4146129-nfl-preview-draftkings-fanduel-fanatics-betmgm-and-espn-bet-are-in-the-spotlight?mailingid=36609049&messageid=2900&serial=36609049.8058&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=36609049.8058
Quote:

Fanatics and Rush Street Interactive (RSI) are also scrapping for market share.


I would say that RSI has given up the fight. Caesars is having a surprisingly hard time getting traction, but then their customer base is largely US.

There is a mention of AI used by betting platforms:
Quote:

The deal is seen allowing for the integration of Simplebet's proprietary machine-learning models into DraftKings' (DKNG) best-in-class pricing and technology platform to create "highly accurate betting opportunities" during every moment of a game.

Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
Mental
September 4th, 2024 at 6:52:52 AM permalink
I am torn about my feelings on this….

FD has one live game now, a European women’s soccer game. The favorite is winning 6-0 with 30 minutes to go. They are not allowing bets on the favorite, but will take bets on ‘tie’ or on the losing team. At only 100-1.

I feel that the books should offer both sides or none at all. The 100-1 is just a way to take money from a naive customer with no risk at all. I am not against the casino having an advantage, but I think offering an odds as low as 100-1 on a less than 1 in billion chance is ‘predatory’.

But I do see the other side…. no one is forcing the sap to bet, and the score is shown and the odds are clear.

I like lilRed’s plan on his taking the dogs early on. Not saying it will work….

My one ‘analysis’ of an NFL game….
NFL teams have ‘position groups’ that they try to upgrade each offseason via the draft, trade, or free agency.

The Bills have, in my opinion, upgraded NONE. That’s actually very hard to do. They lost their starting center and just moved a guard over. They lost their top two wide receivers and signed other team’s rejects. They lost their best defensive lineman from last year. Their best linebacker is probably out for the season. They lost their best cornerback, as well as both starting safeties. Unless you are an avid NFL fan, you can’t name any of the potential replacements.
They do have Josh Allen, who by himself can change the outcome of a game the Bill’s way. But you have to really be wearing rose colored glasses to think the Bills will be as good as they were last year.

I’m taking Cardinals plus the points in week 1.

That all being said, I did make (-EV) bet on Bills to win at least 4 division games. My other analysis is that the Jets are OVERRATED! I’m in the ‘Rodgers is old coming off a serious injury’ camp.
Luckyace
Luckyace
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 12
Joined: Sep 4, 2024
September 4th, 2024 at 8:08:45 AM permalink
I agree that sportsbooks should either offer both sides of the bet or none at all. It’s about maintaining a fair playing field and ensuring transparency for everyone. While I understand that sportsbooks are businesses and need to maintain an edge, there is a line between having a reasonable advantage and setting up bets that have almost zero chance of winning.

When the odds are so skewed, it can feel predatory, especially if the book isn't transparent about the actual chances of a win. It's important for customers to feel like they’re getting a fair opportunity, and not just being set up to lose.

Ultimately, I think this boils down to ethical responsibility. Casinos and sportsbooks should offer odds that are fair, or at least reflective of the actual chances, so players feel they have a legitimate shot.

Thanks for bringing this up — it’s definitely an important discussion for anyone who enjoys sports betting!
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 1549
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
September 4th, 2024 at 8:49:02 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am torn about my feelings on this….

FD has one live game now, a European women’s soccer game. The favorite is winning 6-0 with 30 minutes to go. They are not allowing bets on the favorite, but will take bets on ‘tie’ or on the losing team. At only 100-1.

I feel that the books should offer both sides or none at all. The 100-1 is just a way to take money from a naive customer with no risk at all. I am not against the casino having an advantage, but I think offering an odds as low as 100-1 on a less than 1 in billion chance is ‘predatory’.
link to original post


I wonder what the fair odd were on this bet and what the effective vigorish was.

Slots have to have a minimum 83% RTP in many states, minimum 85% in Pennsylvania, and minimum 90% in Perth.

The true RTP on this bet is certainly lower than that. The RTP on many multi-leg parlays, prop bets, and futures bets is lower than a one-arm bandit is allowed to return, and most slots return more than 88%.

None of this is disclosed. Nobody was forcing punters to bet good money on a 100-1 bet that had almost no chance of winning. But the sports books are not forced to disclose their target vigorish. There is no objective way to calculate the vig, but the books know what their historical RTP is on their most profitable classes of bets.

I think state regulators should force the sports books to disclose this information the way they do for slots. The vig on some of the bets are criminal.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 4th, 2024 at 10:04:35 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

The vig on some of the bets are criminal.



The vig on that particular bet would be 99.9+ %. I don’t know how many more 9’s to add.
The word ‘criminal’ has many connotations. If you mean actually against some sort of law, you should be able to state which one. If you really mean ‘unethical’ or ‘predatory’ or ‘disgusting’ I of course agree with you.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
Thanked by
odiousgambit
September 4th, 2024 at 12:32:30 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am torn about my feelings on this….

FD has one live game now, a European women’s soccer game. The favorite is winning 6-0 with 30 minutes to go. They are not allowing bets on the favorite, but will take bets on ‘tie’ or on the losing team. At only 100-1.



At one point I wanted to petition the Nevada Gaming Control Board to make a change so in sports betting if a bet is available on one side it must be available on the other.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 168
  • Posts: 22480
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
September 4th, 2024 at 6:40:59 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow


I surmised that the first 2 weeks would be very unpredictable and that unpredictability would favor the underdogs
I have now tracked the first 2 weeks of 11 seasons - about 350 games - and the dogs have won just over 57% for about a 9% r.o.i. (pushes not considered)
in the 11 years I tracked the faves have never had a winning year - they did tie one year which caused a slight loss due to the vig
this is related to the Wizard's tracking of thousands of games and showing all underdogs losing only a tiny % and road dogs being slightly profitable - see link
my goal was to improve on that r.o.i. with selectivity
a couple of people at another forum made $ with this last season when I first posted it

.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

.
link to original post

I can't remember if I took all road dogs for the first 2 weeks period, or all road dogs getting +4.5 or less? Am I merging 2 separate systems? Whatever it was, I did do well.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 7037
Joined: May 8, 2015
September 5th, 2024 at 4:05:17 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

.
NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow


I surmised that the first 2 weeks would be very unpredictable and that unpredictability would favor the underdogs
I have now tracked the first 2 weeks of 11 seasons - about 350 games - and the dogs have won just over 57% for about a 9% r.o.i. (pushes not considered)
in the 11 years I tracked the faves have never had a winning year - they did tie one year which caused a slight loss due to the vig
this is related to the Wizard's tracking of thousands of games and showing all underdogs losing only a tiny % and road dogs being slightly profitable - see link
my goal was to improve on that r.o.i. with selectivity
a couple of people at another forum made $ with this last season when I first posted it

.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

.
link to original post

I can't remember if I took all road dogs for the first 2 weeks period, or all road dogs getting +4.5 or less? Am I merging 2 separate systems? Whatever it was, I did do well.
link to original post


it was a totally different tracking and it was not the first 2 weeks - and it was road dogs who got 4 points OR LESS for the entire seasons - see link

I tracked 4 seasons - they went 159 - 117_________57.6% winners - pushes not considered

again Mike tracked thousands of games for ALL road dogs and showed them winning with an r.o.i. of 2.57%

this is a different tracking of about 350 games - and it's ALL underdogs but only for the first 2 weeks

I've done so many trackings I actually forgot about this one and had to look it up - but that's no excuse - I shouldn't have forgotten about it


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36563-beat-the-nfl-spread/
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 168
  • Posts: 22480
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
September 6th, 2024 at 10:39:48 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: lilredrooster

.
NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow


I surmised that the first 2 weeks would be very unpredictable and that unpredictability would favor the underdogs
I have now tracked the first 2 weeks of 11 seasons - about 350 games - and the dogs have won just over 57% for about a 9% r.o.i. (pushes not considered)
in the 11 years I tracked the faves have never had a winning year - they did tie one year which caused a slight loss due to the vig
this is related to the Wizard's tracking of thousands of games and showing all underdogs losing only a tiny % and road dogs being slightly profitable - see link
my goal was to improve on that r.o.i. with selectivity
a couple of people at another forum made $ with this last season when I first posted it

.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

.
link to original post

I can't remember if I took all road dogs for the first 2 weeks period, or all road dogs getting +4.5 or less? Am I merging 2 separate systems? Whatever it was, I did do well.
link to original post


it was a totally different tracking and it was not the first 2 weeks - and it was road dogs who got 4 points OR LESS for the entire seasons - see link

I tracked 4 seasons - they went 159 - 117_________57.6% winners - pushes not considered

again Mike tracked thousands of games for ALL road dogs and showed them winning with an r.o.i. of 2.57%

this is a different tracking of about 350 games - and it's ALL underdogs but only for the first 2 weeks

I've done so many trackings I actually forgot about this one and had to look it up - but that's no excuse - I shouldn't have forgotten about it


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/36563-beat-the-nfl-spread/
link to original post

Good
stuff, good stuff. Thanx for the clarification.

-$2,200 for last night's game. Unfortunately, No one factored in KC's best player....
Talor Swift
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 6th, 2024 at 3:40:13 PM permalink
For us low rollers ( or throttled rollers?) there were tons of +EV bets mostly on QB rushing yards or passing yards, or both, on the Chiefs game. $10 here, $20 there.
Today FD is letting me bet $20 at +115 on Barkley/Jacob’s to combine for 120. Their fair O/Us are 65.5 and 62.5. So 128. Interestingly, I think their total correlates TOWARDS the 128 number. If one team is ahead they will tend to run more, but the trailing team will tend to run less. I think fair odds would be -130 or so.
To night is my ‘big’ Duke combo that I clean up on exactly 36 or 37. Similar if exactly 49 on Eagles game.

I have a bet I’m hoping to lose! Basically it’s Sabalenka over Pegula in a few parlays! I think Pegula represents Buffalo very well!
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 6th, 2024 at 5:31:09 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


I have a bet I’m hoping to lose! Basically it’s Sabalenka over Pegula in a few parlays! I think Pegula represents Buffalo very well!



I don't know that I have ever made a bet that I hope loses unless, of course, if I made a bigger bet on the other side.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 123
  • Posts: 11425
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 6th, 2024 at 8:02:54 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


I have a bet I’m hoping to lose! Basically it’s Sabalenka over Pegula in a few parlays! I think Pegula represents Buffalo very well!



I don't know that I have ever made a bet that I hope loses unless, of course, if I made a bigger bet on the other side.
link to original post



I separate the ‘business’ of my sports betting from the ‘fun’ of rooting for teams or players I like.

I often hope to lose golf bets. If I make a par but one of my buddies has a birdie putt to beat me I will always root for him to make it.

Barkley/Jacob’s bet hit already. Still 13 minutes to go…
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12571
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 7th, 2024 at 5:02:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Barkley/Jacob’s bet hit already. Still 13 minutes to go…



Barkley looked very good.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 245
  • Posts: 16888
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
September 7th, 2024 at 5:47:57 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


Barkley/Jacob’s bet hit already. Still 13 minutes to go…



Barkley looked very good.
link to original post



I think he might be the first big Free Agent a team I follow has lost in a long time. I was blindsided by his decision to jump ship like that and thrilled that his new career had started with him losing five yards on his first carry. I hope he stays healthy and the team collapses around him, but that's not very likely.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
  • Jump to: