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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 18th, 2024 at 4:46:56 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

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I didn't shop for the best lines in my first 2 weeks dogs picks
I never do when I do a tracking
I know everybody can't get the best lines
I use the line posted by covers.com after the games are over which is the final and most common line among the various books
but coincidentally, it may often be the best line if someone is betting the dogs - since I have noticed (but not documented) the trend of the faves getting bet down late
I was curious so I googled, and the research done by those at the link confirms the old maxim that it's bet to bet faves early and dogs late
but of course it won't work every time and may sometimes work against you


https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/should-you-really-bet-nfl-favorites-early-and-underdogs-late/

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link to original post



If I identify a pick I want, I go to each of the 5 books I have already signed up with, and find the best line. As an example, last night I had the Reds, and got 5/100 more in odds on 1 site than the other 4. That’s $5 on $100 bet. It adds up.

Season long bet stories…..
I had over 2.5 teams to win 100 MLB games. Looks like it will be ZERO.
I have McCaffrey to score most TDs. He’s out at least first 5 games
I have Njoku and Kincaid to each get 750 yards. Njoku out for quite a while.
My happy one is Bills over 3.5 division wins.

BetMGM gave free $100 if you deposit new $200. I think I had to bet the $300 over a two week period to make it withdrawable. At the same time they are giving $12.50 a week in points if you bet $50 that week. Plus I’m getting bonus Marriott points in addition to the BetMGM points.
lilredrooster
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September 18th, 2024 at 5:01:54 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

If I identify a pick I want, I go to each of the 5 books I have already signed up with, and find the best line.


your method is very good but you still can't be sure you got the best line

there's no way that you can know that if you bet a fave at -3 that the fave won't go to -2.5 an hour later

you could bet very early with the faves and very late with the dogs but that still won't guarantee that you got the best line

but that is prolly the best way to go imho

but again, this is not a criticism - what you're doing is better than most and I give you credit for that

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Mental
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September 18th, 2024 at 7:36:54 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
I didn't shop for the best lines in my first 2 weeks dogs picks
I never do when I do a tracking
I know everybody can't get the best lines
I use the line posted by covers.com after the games are over which is the final and most common line among the various books
but coincidentally, it may often be the best line if someone is betting the dogs - since I have noticed (but not documented) the trend of the faves getting bet down late
I was curious so I googled, and the research done by those at the link confirms the old maxim that it's bet to bet faves early and dogs late
but of course it won't work every time and may sometimes work against you


https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/should-you-really-bet-nfl-favorites-early-and-underdogs-late/

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link to original post



If I identify a pick I want, I go to each of the 5 books I have already signed up with, and find the best line. As an example, last night I had the Reds, and got 5/100 more in odds on 1 site than the other 4. That’s $5 on $100 bet. It adds up.

Season long bet stories…..
I had over 2.5 teams to win 100 MLB games. Looks like it will be ZERO.
I have McCaffrey to score most TDs. He’s out at least first 5 games
I have Njoku and Kincaid to each get 750 yards. Njoku out for quite a while.
My happy one is Bills over 3.5 division wins.

BetMGM gave free $100 if you deposit new $200. I think I had to bet the $300 over a two week period to make it withdrawable. At the same time they are giving $12.50 a week in points if you bet $50 that week. Plus I’m getting bonus Marriott points in addition to the BetMGM points.
link to original post


I like your holistic approach to promotional value. Very often, the casinos will let you double dip on overlapping promotions. Less frequently, they will give you points for the play through requirements. If they do, this adds to your edge.

I recently had a play-to-earn promo where they gave you a $500 1x bonus for wagering $40K on slots over a two-day period (1.25% promo cash). The best available slot on the site had a 98% RTP, so I passed. The next day, they offered another play-to-earn for $1000 for $60K in action (1.67%). I did a test and the same slot play counted against both play-to-earn hurdles. Now, I had a 2.5% cashback situation so long as I completed the $60K of play before the first promo expired. This gave me a $300 +EV situation before considering any points I earned or any follow on offers generated by this slot play.

If you don't take a holistic view all the benefits from the action you give them, you may be overlooking a lot of +EV opportunities. Considering that the sports book and casinos are both tightening up on promotions, this is more important than ever.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
AxelWolf
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September 18th, 2024 at 3:53:25 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
I didn't shop for the best lines in my first 2 weeks dogs picks
I never do when I do a tracking
I know everybody can't get the best lines
I use the line posted by covers.com after the games are over which is the final and most common line among the various books
but coincidentally, it may often be the best line if someone is betting the dogs - since I have noticed (but not documented) the trend of the faves getting bet down late
I was curious so I googled, and the research done by those at the link confirms the old maxim that it's bet to bet faves early and dogs late
but of course it won't work every time and may sometimes work against you


https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/should-you-really-bet-nfl-favorites-early-and-underdogs-late/

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link to original post

I think other sharps are betting the dogs heavily at the start of the season as well. I'm not sure if your research looked into that aspect. Whatever the case, I absolutely appreciate your research and information on sports betting.

Hey just wondering, I thought you stopped betting on sports etc?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Tufail
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September 18th, 2024 at 10:22:33 PM permalink
Sounds like a rollercoaster of emotions with those bets! Betting on such huge favorites like Georgia with a -44.5 spread is always nerve-wracking, especially when the game doesn't go as smoothly as expected. Parlaying Kent State +44.5 with the over was a bold move, and getting +575 is solid. Even though it didn’t hit, the odds seem to reflect decent value given the circumstances.

I agree with ksdjdj's analysis on RTP and EV—those calculations show the importance of finding +EV bets, especially when you’re mixing big underdogs with an over. It’s a high-risk strategy but can pay off nicely. I’ve missed a few parlays by a hair myself, especially when a team doesn’t cover by just a point or two, which is the nature of the game. But it’s always satisfying to know that, statistically, you’re making +EV bets.

Good luck with future bets! Sometimes those long-shot parlays hit when you least expect it.
GenoDRPh
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September 18th, 2024 at 10:45:34 PM permalink
Patriots (+220) @ Jets(-270, -6), 38.5 Thursday! Who you got?
odiousgambit
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September 19th, 2024 at 3:09:11 AM permalink
I don't have either but I think Patriots +230, which I could get right now, is the better bet on the moneyline. Oddsmakers are too impressed by Jets beating Titans?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
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September 19th, 2024 at 4:51:00 AM permalink
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sports betting arguments can get quite heated
this dude had an angry online dispute with someone in his fantasy football league
so he made false reports of a bomb threat and a mass shooting

https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/philadelphia-man-pleads-guilty-making-fantasy-football-related-bomb-threat-and-mass

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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September 21st, 2024 at 6:44:03 AM permalink
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this is pretty interesting - to me anyway
AI predictions for the scores of this Sunday and Monday's NFL games
I'm going to track this on the o/u and also ats
my prediction - their picks are worthless - but I could be wrong
of course, not really enough games to know for sure


https://www.oddstrader.com/nfl/picks/

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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September 22nd, 2024 at 3:55:25 AM permalink
My college football betting started off rather poorly yesterday. I started off 4 and 6 but was fortunate enough to win my last 4 bets so I ended up 8-6 for a very small profit. Amazingly, I have won a small amount each of the first four weeks of the season. I will start slowly raising my bets and probably lose everything in the next few weeks.

The bets I have made so far for next week are:

Utah -9.5
Fla St + 4.5
Georgia -2.5
Fresno St +3.5
Oklahoma St +5.5
Oklahoma -2.5
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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September 22nd, 2024 at 5:55:55 AM permalink
I couple of interesting things from football yesterday.

North Carolina started their third string quarterback and scored 50 points. Sadly, they still lost by 20.

Colorado down by 7 throws a Hail Mary with no time left and gets the tying touchdown. They go on to win by 7 in overtime.

Utah, who I bet because I thought their starting QB was back, eeked out a win with their Freshman QB who looked amazing again.

Michigan comes back for a win against USC after a long drive of mostly runs. Michigan denied USC their first Big Ten win.

BYU blows out a favored Kansas St team in Provo. K State is overrated because although their QB runs well his passing is terrible. K-State is probably a bet against team for the next few weeks.

I lost a large bet on Washington St as somehow San Jose put up 52 points. How does a Ken Niumatalolo coached team score 52 points?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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September 22nd, 2024 at 7:51:05 AM permalink
USC is now in the Big Ten? Another reminder of why I watch less college football every year. Do they still play The Irish every year?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
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September 22nd, 2024 at 9:36:14 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

USC is now in the Big Ten? Another reminder of why I watch less college football every year. Do they still play The Irish every year?
link to original post



They haven’t played Dublin University iin a few years.

And nothing says ACC football like Stanford-Cal.

(USC-ND November 30).

I’m wondering….. is there even a pretense of these guys who play one year for a school and move to another and then another and then another….. of them going to any classes?

Is ‘admission requirement’ an oxymoron?
DRich
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September 22nd, 2024 at 11:02:41 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Is ‘admission requirement’ an oxymoron?



I really hate what major athletic programs have done to universities. I would prefer to see no athletic scholarships like the Ivy league does. When I took my daughter on her pre-college exploration tour I really appreciated how Columbia, NYU, and Princeton presented themselves and never mentioned athletics. When we toured Michigan and Berkley part of the tour was walking through the football stadium and across the field.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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September 22nd, 2024 at 11:08:51 AM permalink
I made my first NFL bet of the year using all of my knowledge and wisdom. I bet on Tampa Bay -6 against Denver, they are currently losing 17-0.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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September 23rd, 2024 at 3:38:12 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
this is pretty interesting - to me anyway
AI predictions for the scores of this Sunday and Monday's NFL games
I'm going to track this on the o/u and also ats
my prediction - their picks are worthless - but I could be wrong
of course, not really enough games to know for sure


https://www.oddstrader.com/nfl/picks/

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link to original post


the AI picks tanked so far - I tracked them at 10-15
no more tracking of this for me - I'm not a believer

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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September 23rd, 2024 at 5:49:30 AM permalink
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an early under pick for week 4
Commanders/Cardinals u 49.5_________the highest total for the week
Commanders are averaging 20.5 - Cardinals 27.3
but the Cardinals only scored 13 yesterday - glta

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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September 23rd, 2024 at 6:23:02 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO



Is ‘admission requirement’ an oxymoron?



I really hate what major athletic programs have done to universities. I would prefer to see no athletic scholarships like the Ivy league does. When I took my daughter on her pre-college exploration tour I really appreciated how Columbia, NYU, and Princeton presented themselves and never mentioned athletics. When we toured Michigan and Berkley part of the tour was walking through the football stadium and across the field.
link to original post

The corruptive influence of college sports, especially football, has been a regrettable fact for a long time. Take the Marx Bros. movie "Horse Feathers" [1932] ... the total corruption is what that film is all about. 1932! Now the whole business has come to full fruition with little pretense that it has anything to do with education except funding it.

It's a good movie to watch over and over ... however, the final scene on the football field is pretty lame and, IMO, can only be watched once and never again.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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September 23rd, 2024 at 7:02:19 AM permalink
Live and learn. This morning had football offer of 33% profit boosts. So I look for lines that allow underdog boosted and hedge on another site un boosted. Like if I find +300 and -330 as a realistic example. So get +399 and -330. Can make a few free $$.
Today saw Chargers +8.5 at -110. Next site I looked at had Chiefs -5.5 also at -110. So planned on betting first at +120 (boosted) second at -110, with a pretty big middle! When I went to place second bet it didn’t take it, saying ‘odds change’. Then the point spread corrected to 8.5. Lesson…. Bet the line that appears in error FIRST!

After watching games yesterday…. for next week….
Bet against the Bears
Bet against the Titans
Bet against the 49ers
Bet on the Panthers
Bet against the Patriots
Bet against the Dolphins
lilredrooster
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September 23rd, 2024 at 7:58:18 AM permalink
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I wondered how the results would be for o/u when the NFL total was high - 48 or greater
I tracked the 2 previous seasons and this one
the unders have crushed 59-31
not a lot of games but it seems pretty strong - 64%
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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September 23rd, 2024 at 1:20:51 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


After watching games yesterday…. for next week….
Bet against the Bears
Bet against the Titans
Bet against the 49ers
Bet on the Panthers
Bet against the Patriots
Bet against the Dolphins



Apparently you are a believer in Andy Dalton (the Red Rifle).
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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September 23rd, 2024 at 2:01:04 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


After watching games yesterday…. for next week….
Bet against the Bears
Bet against the Titans
Bet against the 49ers
Bet on the Panthers
Bet against the Patriots
Bet against the Dolphins



Apparently you are a believer in Andy Dalton (the Red Rifle).
link to original post



Not at all. Just that I am anti-Bryce Young.
And will be anti Caleb Williams as well.
Will Levis too!
GenoDRPh
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September 23rd, 2024 at 2:06:40 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Live and learn. This morning had football offer of 33% profit boosts. So I look for lines that allow underdog boosted and hedge on another site un boosted. Like if I find +300 and -330 as a realistic example. So get +399 and -330. Can make a few free $$.
Today saw Chargers +8.5 at -110. Next site I looked at had Chiefs -5.5 also at -110. So planned on betting first at +120 (boosted) second at -110, with a pretty big middle! When I went to place second bet it didn’t take it, saying ‘odds change’. Then the point spread corrected to 8.5. Lesson…. Bet the line that appears in error FIRST!

After watching games yesterday…. for next week….
Bet against the Bears
Bet against the Titans
Bet against the 49ers
Bet on the Panthers
Bet against the Patriots
Bet against the Dolphins
link to original post



"Bet against the Patriots" gets me right in the feels :(
They're playing SanFran next Sun. I'd bet against the Patriots too.
billryan
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September 23rd, 2024 at 6:47:15 PM permalink
Big Blue is more entertaining then I expected, but they are a terrible team.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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September 24th, 2024 at 6:52:58 AM permalink
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he writer states that parlays are a bad bet

parlays can sometimes be good bets for example if there is an odds boost but often they're not
there is often more vig compared to a straight bet - and sometimes the parlays have their own special rules which are not advantageous to the player
with parlays books play on the bettors well known desire to have a huge payday
in horse racing they bump the vig up on the exotics (which are really parlays) at some tracks to as high as 30% which is insane

from the article:

"According the the Nevada's Center for Gaming Research the state's sportsbooks earned on average 5.7 cents on every dollar wagered on football

Parlays however resulted in a windfall of 32.1 cents on the dollar"

https://archive.ph/lkpZ0

the images show the results of parlays compared to straight wagers assuming the bettor has no edge - in the link itself below the images the writer shows the math behind this








https://www.professormj.com/pages/sports-betting-lessons-stop-doing-parlays

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 24th, 2024 at 8:43:59 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
he writer states that parlays are a bad bet

parlays can sometimes be good bets for example if there is an odds boost but often they're not
there is often more vig compared to a straight bet - and sometimes the parlays have their own special rules which are not advantageous to the player
with parlays books play on the bettors well known desire to have a huge payday
in horse racing they bump the vig up on the exotics (which are really parlays) at some tracks to as high as 30% which is insane

from the article:

"According the the Nevada's Center for Gaming Research the state's sportsbooks earned on average 5.7 cents on every dollar wagered on football

Parlays however resulted in a windfall of 32.1 cents on the dollar"

https://archive.ph/lkpZ0

the images show the results of parlays compared to straight wagers assuming the bettor has no edge - in the link itself below the images the writer shows the math behind this








https://www.professormj.com/pages/sports-betting-lessons-stop-doing-parlays

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link to original post



But you are on a website that caters to bettors that find the edge, and exploit it.

I have a bunch of 100% profit boosts. Let’s say I use it for your ‘regular’ -110 bet. Which is standard for most ‘even chance’ bets.
I bet my $100. If I win $182 with the profit boost. So 1/2 the time I win $182, 1/2 the time I lose $100. So on average I win $41 per bet.

Now let’s say I’m allowed to parlay 2 such -110 bets. This turns into +264, which is +528 with the profit boost. So 1/4 of the time I win $528. 3/4 of the time I lose $100. So on average I win $57 per bet.

This is just a SIMPLE example of how a profit boost can turn a parlay MORE POSITIVE than a straight bet. It also includes the concept that profit boosts are more valuable on money line underdogs than favorites.

I’m NOT saying it is the best way to use them…

So in summary…. you are correct…. the general public just plopping down big $$ on parlays is good for the books, but when offered profit boosts, or no risk bets, the parlays are good for me!
lilredrooster
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September 24th, 2024 at 10:52:52 AM permalink
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yes, I get your point
I would guess that at some point all of much of the bonus money in sports betting is going to disappear or shrink for players showing a net profit by using it
I think you have posted about that from some of the books
on the other hand maybe the other ones will not dry up their bonuses because of the ferocious competition - idk
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Mental
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September 24th, 2024 at 11:37:40 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: lilredrooster

.
he writer states that parlays are a bad bet

parlays can sometimes be good bets for example if there is an odds boost but often they're not
there is often more vig compared to a straight bet - and sometimes the parlays have their own special rules which are not advantageous to the player
with parlays books play on the bettors well known desire to have a huge payday
in horse racing they bump the vig up on the exotics (which are really parlays) at some tracks to as high as 30% which is insane

from the article:

"According the the Nevada's Center for Gaming Research the state's sportsbooks earned on average 5.7 cents on every dollar wagered on football

Parlays however resulted in a windfall of 32.1 cents on the dollar"

https://archive.ph/lkpZ0

the images show the results of parlays compared to straight wagers assuming the bettor has no edge - in the link itself below the images the writer shows the math behind this








https://www.professormj.com/pages/sports-betting-lessons-stop-doing-parlays

.
link to original post



But you are on a website that caters to bettors that find the edge, and exploit it.

I have a bunch of 100% profit boosts. Let’s say I use it for your ‘regular’ -110 bet. Which is standard for most ‘even chance’ bets.
I bet my $100. If I win $182 with the profit boost. So 1/2 the time I win $182, 1/2 the time I lose $100. So on average I win $41 per bet.

Now let’s say I’m allowed to parlay 2 such -110 bets. This turns into +264, which is +528 with the profit boost. So 1/4 of the time I win $528. 3/4 of the time I lose $100. So on average I win $57 per bet.

This is just a SIMPLE example of how a profit boost can turn a parlay MORE POSITIVE than a straight bet. It also includes the concept that profit boosts are more valuable on money line underdogs than favorites.

I’m NOT saying it is the best way to use them…

So in summary…. you are correct…. the general public just plopping down big $$ on parlays is good for the books, but when offered profit boosts, or no risk bets, the parlays are good for me!
link to original post


I agree with your math, but the math is even more in your favor if you bet a straight +264 dog. You have only a 25% chance of winning the +264 parlay. Plugging the numbers into a vig calculator, you have a 27.47% chance of winning a straight bet at the same +264. Your ROI will be about 10% higher using a straight bet.

Of course, this assumes that you have no additional edge due to handicapping in either scenario (or an equal handicapping boost to ROI in both scenarios.)

https://www.bookmakers.bet/1794/the-vig/
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
SOOPOO
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September 24th, 2024 at 11:39:50 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
yes, I get your point
I would guess that at some point all of much of the bonus money in sports betting is going to disappear or shrink for players showing a net profit by using it
I think you have posted about that from some of the books
on the other hand maybe the other ones will not dry up their bonuses because of the ferocious competition - idk
.
link to original post



This I can’t disagree with. I’m on 5 sites and only 1 has essentially made the offers to me so minuscule as to not be worth it. Time will tell…..

Yesterday had offer on Allen to COMBINE for 245 yards passing and rushing. Even money. If Allen plays 17 games he probably makes that mark 14 times? But in other words, free money!
DRich
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September 25th, 2024 at 5:55:27 AM permalink
I just made my largest football bet of the year on Fresno St +1.5.

I had made a bet earlier in the week on Fresno +3.5 so the question is why would I bet more at +1.5? Their opponent this week is undefeated UNLV and UNLV's starting quarterback just quit the team. He was not a very good QB but losing him will still probably hinder the offense so this seemed like a good opportunity.

My luck, Fresno will probably lose by 20.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 25th, 2024 at 6:18:43 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I just made my largest football bet of the year on Fresno St +1.5.

I had made a bet earlier in the week on Fresno +3.5 so the question is why would I bet more at +1.5? Their opponent this week is undefeated UNLV and UNLV's starting quarterback just quit the team. He was not a very good QB but losing him will still probably hinder the offense so this seemed like a good opportunity.

My luck, Fresno will probably lose by 20.
link to original post



He’s not that good a passer, but won those 3 games with his legs. All I can say for sure is his coaches thought he was better than whoever will be playing in his stead.
Sounds like UNLV might have misrepresented an NIL deal? This kid will be in his 6th year of college playing for someone next year.
GenoDRPh
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September 25th, 2024 at 8:25:58 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I just made my largest football bet of the year on Fresno St +1.5.

I had made a bet earlier in the week on Fresno +3.5 so the question is why would I bet more at +1.5? Their opponent this week is undefeated UNLV and UNLV's starting quarterback just quit the team. He was not a very good QB but losing him will still probably hinder the offense so this seemed like a good opportunity.

My luck, Fresno will probably lose by 20.
link to original post



He’s not that good a passer, but won those 3 games with his legs. All I can say for sure is his coaches thought he was better than whoever will be playing in his stead.
Sounds like UNLV might have misrepresented an NIL deal? This kid will be in his 6th year of college playing for someone next year.
link to original post



A deal's a deal, and it looks like UNLV reneged on the deal. So the dude is voting with his feet by walking.
DRich
DRich
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September 25th, 2024 at 8:40:29 AM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I just made my largest football bet of the year on Fresno St +1.5.

I had made a bet earlier in the week on Fresno +3.5 so the question is why would I bet more at +1.5? Their opponent this week is undefeated UNLV and UNLV's starting quarterback just quit the team. He was not a very good QB but losing him will still probably hinder the offense so this seemed like a good opportunity.

My luck, Fresno will probably lose by 20.
link to original post



He’s not that good a passer, but won those 3 games with his legs. All I can say for sure is his coaches thought he was better than whoever will be playing in his stead.
Sounds like UNLV might have misrepresented an NIL deal? This kid will be in his 6th year of college playing for someone next year.
link to original post



A deal's a deal, and it looks like UNLV reneged on the deal. So the dude is voting with his feet by walking.
link to original post



If the deal was in writing it will become a lawsuit. If not, it will probably just fade away.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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September 25th, 2024 at 11:01:55 AM permalink
One thing I did not know about the UNLV QB is that he holds the college division one record for 330 yards rushing in a game. The most by a QB ever.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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September 25th, 2024 at 11:11:18 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

One thing I did not know about the UNLV QB is that he holds the college division one record for 330 yards rushing in a game. The most by a QB ever.
link to original post



I left Long Island in 2016, and Sluka was the local Catholic high school star. I thought he'd gone to a D2 school to play lacrosse. He's been in college a long time.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
billryan
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September 25th, 2024 at 11:25:34 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

One thing I did not know about the UNLV QB is that he holds the college division one record for 330 yards rushing in a game. The most by a QB ever.
link to original post



I left Long Island in 2016, and Sluka was the local Catholic high school star. I thought he'd gone to a D2 school to play lacrosse. He's been in college a long time.
link to original post



My cousin's son went to school with him. He was also a redhead, and he was often mistaken for him. I think they were in the same class, but Stephen graduated from SUNY Maritime and spent three years in the Merchant Marine while this guy was still in school.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
GenoDRPh
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September 25th, 2024 at 1:53:40 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: GenoDRPh

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

I just made my largest football bet of the year on Fresno St +1.5.

I had made a bet earlier in the week on Fresno +3.5 so the question is why would I bet more at +1.5? Their opponent this week is undefeated UNLV and UNLV's starting quarterback just quit the team. He was not a very good QB but losing him will still probably hinder the offense so this seemed like a good opportunity.

My luck, Fresno will probably lose by 20.
link to original post



He’s not that good a passer, but won those 3 games with his legs. All I can say for sure is his coaches thought he was better than whoever will be playing in his stead.
Sounds like UNLV might have misrepresented an NIL deal? This kid will be in his 6th year of college playing for someone next year.
link to original post



A deal's a deal, and it looks like UNLV reneged on the deal. So the dude is voting with his feet by walking.
link to original post



If the deal was in writing it will become a lawsuit. If not, it will probably just fade away.
link to original post



Word is an asst coach offered him $100K in an NIL deal, but the HC wouldn't pay up, saying it didn't come from the top. I say, good for the kid. Hope UNLV loses every game from now on. Teach them a lesson to honor their deals. And to college athletes out there, get it in writing!
DRich
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September 25th, 2024 at 2:12:57 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh


Word is an asst coach offered him $100K in an NIL deal, but the HC wouldn't pay up, saying it didn't come from the top. I say, good for the kid. Hope UNLV loses every game from now on. Teach them a lesson to honor their deals. And to college athletes out there, get it in writing!



I certainly hope they lose their next game because I have a big bet on Fresno St. Something sure sounds suspicious about this whole thing. The kid has an agent, you would think the agents job would be to get any deal in writing. There is more to this story than what we are hearing.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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September 25th, 2024 at 2:25:23 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: GenoDRPh


Word is an asst coach offered him $100K in an NIL deal, but the HC wouldn't pay up, saying it didn't come from the top. I say, good for the kid. Hope UNLV loses every game from now on. Teach them a lesson to honor their deals. And to college athletes out there, get it in writing!



I certainly hope they lose their next game because I have a big bet on Fresno St. Something sure sounds suspicious about this whole thing. The kid has an agent, you would think the agents job would be to get any deal in writing. There is more to this story than what we are hearing.
link to original post



You didn’t read the articles. Sounds like the coaches are not allowed to give a specific offer. Since it technically isn’t the school that makes the offer. I know some college (basketball) coaches that do the recruiting. It’s more like ‘the starting center made $100k from Joe’s auto dealership. I’ll give you Joe’sphone number’. But by the rules Joe can’t make the deal until you are enrolled.

There is a court case going on right now that could change the whole mess.
DRich
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September 25th, 2024 at 2:57:55 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: GenoDRPh


Word is an asst coach offered him $100K in an NIL deal, but the HC wouldn't pay up, saying it didn't come from the top. I say, good for the kid. Hope UNLV loses every game from now on. Teach them a lesson to honor their deals. And to college athletes out there, get it in writing!



I certainly hope they lose their next game because I have a big bet on Fresno St. Something sure sounds suspicious about this whole thing. The kid has an agent, you would think the agents job would be to get any deal in writing. There is more to this story than what we are hearing.
link to original post



You didn’t read the articles. Sounds like the coaches are not allowed to give a specific offer. Since it technically isn’t the school that makes the offer. I know some college (basketball) coaches that do the recruiting. It’s more like ‘the starting center made $100k from Joe’s auto dealership. I’ll give you Joe’sphone number’. But by the rules Joe can’t make the deal until you are enrolled.

There is a court case going on right now that could change the whole mess.
link to original post



I have actually read quite a bit about this and watched numerous stories about it. Generally the coaches approach the collectives and introduce the players and they work out the details. I would expect that when a player has an agent they would handle the details.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
GenoDRPh
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September 25th, 2024 at 4:17:14 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: GenoDRPh


Word is an asst coach offered him $100K in an NIL deal, but the HC wouldn't pay up, saying it didn't come from the top. I say, good for the kid. Hope UNLV loses every game from now on. Teach them a lesson to honor their deals. And to college athletes out there, get it in writing!



I certainly hope they lose their next game because I have a big bet on Fresno St. Something sure sounds suspicious about this whole thing. The kid has an agent, you would think the agents job would be to get any deal in writing. There is more to this story than what we are hearing.
link to original post



You didn’t read the articles. Sounds like the coaches are not allowed to give a specific offer. Since it technically isn’t the school that makes the offer. I know some college (basketball) coaches that do the recruiting. It’s more like ‘the starting center made $100k from Joe’s auto dealership. I’ll give you Joe’sphone number’. But by the rules Joe can’t make the deal until you are enrolled.

There is a court case going on right now that could change the whole mess.
link to original post



I have actually read quite a bit about this and watched numerous stories about it. Generally the coaches approach the collectives and introduce the players and they work out the details. I would expect that when a player has an agent they would handle the details.
link to original post



The dude has a degree from Holy Cross-a reputable institution of higher learning. Unless he's getting a graduate degree for free or is a sure-fire NFL prospect, move on with your life. Just like almost every other collegiate athlete does.
DRich
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September 26th, 2024 at 5:25:15 AM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh



The dude has a degree from Holy Cross-a reputable institution of higher learning. Unless he's getting a graduate degree for free or is a sure-fire NFL prospect, move on with your life. Just like almost every other collegiate athlete does.



I look at it just the opposite. Let the kid earn his $100k because he probably won't make that much his first year of employment.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
GenoDRPh
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September 26th, 2024 at 11:24:22 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: GenoDRPh



The dude has a degree from Holy Cross-a reputable institution of higher learning. Unless he's getting a graduate degree for free or is a sure-fire NFL prospect, move on with your life. Just like almost every other collegiate athlete does.



I look at it just the opposite. Let the kid earn his $100k because he probably won't make that much his first year of employment.
link to original post



If he was promised $100K, then UNLV should pay. If they won't, then play No. 2 on the dept chart while this dude sits out. But college sports aren't forever sports. You go to college, you attend and play for a fixed number of years and you move on with your life.

Just goes to show what a mess college athletics is.

Getting back to sports betting: Dallas-Giants tonight. Who we got?
gordonm888
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September 26th, 2024 at 2:12:49 PM permalink
Quote: GenoDRPh



*snip*

Getting back to sports betting: Dallas-Giants tonight. Who we got?
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Dallas. Most obvious pick of the week, IMO. Dallas' weakness is that it has no ability to stop the run. However, one of the Giants' weaknesses is that they don't have an effective running game, so they can't exploit Dallas' weakness the way that the Ravens did.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DRich
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September 28th, 2024 at 1:12:29 PM permalink
My college football bets look very grim today.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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October 1st, 2024 at 11:11:38 AM permalink
I have Severino over 5.5 Ks. +150. Mets bullpen was used up yesterday. I expect Mets to try and get Severino an inning or two more than usual.

Also have Tigers as +120 underdog. Skubal is best pitcher in baseball.

Padres over Braves. Braves used up their bullpen yesterday as well.

I lost my bet on Goff to throw an incomplete pass yesterday…. teasing…..
lilredrooster
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October 3rd, 2024 at 1:25:38 PM permalink
.
wow - Commanders are only 3 point faves to the lowly Browns at home
I don't often like faves - but -
Browns have been awful at 1-3 and Commanders have been really impressive at 3-1 - their rookie qb has been really great
Browns have averaged just 16.5 points in their last 4 games
Commanders crushed the favored Cards while away last week
looks like those who make the lines really dissed the Commanders - idk - maybe they know something I don't

my picks:

Commanders -3 one unit

Commanders -170 - 2.5 units

.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 3, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Wqewe
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October 4th, 2024 at 8:15:42 AM permalink
Agree
AxelWolf
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October 5th, 2024 at 6:50:31 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
wow - Commanders are only 3 point faves to the lowly Browns at home
I don't often like faves - but -
Browns have been awful at 1-3 and Commanders have been really impressive at 3-1 - their rookie qb has been really great
Browns have averaged just 16.5 points in their last 4 games
Commanders crushed the favored Cards while away last week
looks like those who make the lines really dissed the Commanders - idk - maybe they know something I don't

my picks:

Commanders -3 one unit

Commanders -170 - 2.5 units

.
link to original post

I bet the Redskins -3, or whatever they are calling them nowadays, for $1,166 (don't ask why that amount). I loved your logic and kinda was thinking the way you did.

I hope to be able to relax tomorrow and watch the game while doing some online casino AP stuff with a POP's #4 Philly steak, extra provolone...SOOOO FRIKEN GOOOOOD!!!!!!
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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October 6th, 2024 at 2:04:56 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
wow - Commanders are only 3 point faves to the lowly Browns at home
I don't often like faves - but -
Browns have been awful at 1-3 and Commanders have been really impressive at 3-1 - their rookie qb has been really great
Browns have averaged just 16.5 points in their last 4 games
Commanders crushed the favored Cards while away last week
looks like those who make the lines really dissed the Commanders - idk - maybe they know something I don't

my picks:

Commanders -3 one unit

Commanders -170 - 2.5 units

.
link to original post

Spot on man, keep'em coming.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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