Thread Rating:

EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
December 24th, 2010 at 12:25:53 AM permalink
Its a good question. On the TV poker shows, Tom Dwan is always said to have lots of 'gamble' and thats what makes him interesting. He takes chances, he pushes the money out there when many others don't. How much gamble do you have? I have almost none. Card counting BJ for a few decades cured me from betting on games where I don't have an edge. I watch people in the casino all the time and am constantly amazed at how much gamble some people have. I'm not talking about clueless dicks, I mean people who understand the games. I admit, I'm envious and jealous of many of them. Taking risks is not my style, I'm a solid edge player. I can't even drive over a tall bridge without turning into a quivering mass of Jello, why should I be able to slide a black chip out there if I don't the odds are in my favor.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
HKrandom
HKrandom
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 130
Joined: Oct 1, 2010
December 24th, 2010 at 1:50:02 AM permalink
I once went to a Casino with my last $300, went down to $75 and then got back up to $1,500 before losing half again and leaving with $750. Another time I bet my last $150 on a soccer game and turned it into $350. Gambling has bailed me out of trouble many times so far and put me in trouble once or twice so I don't expect this to be substainable of course. I love risks; betting $10 a hand would bore the hell out of me. I want either the moon or nothing and so far taking ridiculous risks has paid out. I mostly play negative EV games because there is not much else I can get around here, however I understand the odds and I don't play the side bets with a big house edge.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
Thanked by
onenickelmiracle
December 24th, 2010 at 3:43:04 AM permalink
> I mostly play negative EV games
Alas so do I. The casino just doesn't seem to offer me very many of those positive EV games.
>however I understand the odds and I don't play the side bets with a big house edge.
Well, Basic Strategy gives you that minus 1.414. Those whopping payoff bets with the high house edge are the only think that will make it all worthwhile ... IF they hit.
Martin
Martin
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 149
Joined: Nov 20, 2010
December 24th, 2010 at 6:15:56 AM permalink
With greatest risk comes greatest reward. Everyone's risk appetite is different.

The one thing I have learned after a lifetime of gambling - you can't "grind" a profit. The longer you go on the grind the longer the casino has to grind you. You are small rock and the casino is a bit rock and big rocks nearly always reduce small rocks to dust.

People who are risk adverse tend to be grinders - grinders lose.
blackjackgolden
blackjackgolden
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 39
Joined: Dec 23, 2010
December 24th, 2010 at 6:17:56 AM permalink
I am zero percent gamble..... Why gamble if you know you cant win more than 50% percent of the time.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
December 24th, 2010 at 2:09:10 PM permalink
Quote: blackjackgolden

I am zero percent gamble..... Why gamble if you know you cant win more than 50% percent of the time.



Gambling is like target shooting with a gun that has bad sights, if you do hit something its just an accident. Pro's never gamble if they can help it, they always have an edge, or at least a perceived edge. Slot players aren't really gambling because they have no idea what they're doing. I think it can be called gambling if you understand the risk and do it anyway. If you're playing in ignorance, you're just giving to your favorite charity, the casino.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
December 24th, 2010 at 2:18:59 PM permalink
Quote: blackjackgolden

I am zero percent gamble..... Why gamble if you know you cant win more than 50% percent of the time.


I thought you were a blackjack player. The chances of winning any given hand of blackjack are never above 50%, even if the count is very player-favorable -- except in certain theoretical end-of-deck scenarios which never happen due to the cut card. What game do you play that has a >50% win rate?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11141
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
December 24th, 2010 at 2:23:08 PM permalink
ME- you know he doesn't mean he wins 50+% of his hands, he means he wins more money than he loses during a 'session'. That being said- you can tell by his posts that anything he says will just be a total waste of time, and he will fill up threads with useless babble.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 13th, 2023 at 1:20:00 PM permalink
"In 2013, The Wall Street Journal gained access to a private gambling database, which revealed that just 13.5% of gamblers end up winning."
How Often Do Gamblers Really Win? https://stoppredatorygambling.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2013-How-Often-Do-Gamblers-Really-Win-New-data-provide-some-answers.pdf

This is an interesting statistic, if 13% win then it is certainly possible to be consistently in that 13% if you have an edge. What is stopping you from having an edge. It's certainly not the law of large numbers, because that only applies to the casino. And even that is not written in stone, Steve Wynn has said that casino owners have losing quarters all the time because of the variance. You might have one or two big winning baccarat players that take all your profit for an entire quarter. But the law of large numbers always proves true in the end, a casino will always make money at the end of the year.

But how does the law of large numbers affect an individual player. The truth is, not at all.

"The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events or small numbers of events."

"This law of large numbers does not say anything about what will happen in a single observation or experiment. because individual events are unpredictable."

In the present moment when you make a bet, anything can happen. The law of large numbers has nothing to do with your bet at all. The truth is you won't live long enough to make enough bets where the law of large numbers will have an effect on you. It's not a law anyway, it's a theory. There is no math that says I cannot make a bet based on observation of outcomes in the short term that might have a better chance of winning than a random bet would. I know this is true because I do it every day. I don't beat the math, because the math does not apply to the short term. The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events. Read It and weep..
Last edited by: EvenBob on Sep 13, 2023
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12036
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
Thanked by
MentalonenickelmiracleRomes
September 13th, 2023 at 1:23:09 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

"In 2013, The Wall Street Journal gained access to a private gambling database, which revealed that just 13.5% of gamblers end up winning."



No way 13.5% of gamblers are winners.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 13th, 2023 at 1:29:25 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

"In 2013, The Wall Street Journal gained access to a private gambling database, which revealed that just 13.5% of gamblers end up winning."



No way 13.5% of gamblers are winners.
link to original post



That's from the casino statistics, 13% sounds about right to me. 70% of the time in a casino a player is up in profit at least once but he just keeps playing until it's gone.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
TigerWu
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5702
Joined: May 23, 2016
September 13th, 2023 at 1:46:44 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I don't beat the math, because the math does not apply to the short term...
link to original post



I hope someone is compiling a list of all these EvenBob "aphorisms." They could probably write a book by now.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
  • Threads: 242
  • Posts: 14156
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
September 13th, 2023 at 2:11:54 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

"In 2013, The Wall Street Journal gained access to a private gambling database, which revealed that just 13.5% of gamblers end up winning."



No way 13.5% of gamblers are winners.
link to original post



That's from the casino statistics, 13% sounds about right to me. 70% of the time in a casino a player is up in profit at least once but he just keeps playing until it's gone.
link to original post



I have often wondered about that number. Some casino mag I read in the 2000s said the same thing and said more people need to learn to quit earlier.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
September 13th, 2023 at 2:28:36 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

"In 2013, The Wall Street Journal gained access to a private gambling database, which revealed that just 13.5% of gamblers end up winning."
How Often Do Gamblers Really Win? https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-often-do-gamblers-really-win-1381514164

This is an interesting statistic, if 13% win then it is certainly possible to be consistently in that 13% if you have an edge. What is stopping you from having an edge. It's certainly not the law of large numbers, because that only applies to the casino. And even that is not written in stone, Steve Wynn has said that casino owners have losing quarters all the time because of the variance. You might have one or two big winning baccarat players that take all your profit for an entire quarter. But the law of large numbers always proves true in the end, a casino will always make money at the end of the year.

But how does the law of large numbers affect an individual player. The truth is, not at all.

"The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events or small numbers of events."

"This law of large numbers does not say anything about what will happen in a single observation or experiment. because individual events are unpredictable."

In the present moment when you make a bet, anything can happen. The law of large numbers has nothing to do with your bet at all. The truth is you won't live long enough to make enough bets where the law of large numbers will have an effect on you. It's not a law anyway, it's a theory. There is no math that says I cannot make a bet based on observation of outcomes in the short term that might have a better chance of winning than a random bet would. I know this is true because I do it every day. I don't beat the math, because the math does not apply to the short term. The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events. Read It and weep..
link to original post



Pay walled. Does that 13% mean lifetime, or on a per visit basis? I can't see the full article, but I could believe it on a basis of individual player, individual visit---maybe even over a year; of course, some of those would just be one visit, or trip.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 12036
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 2:31:44 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: EvenBob

"In 2013, The Wall Street Journal gained access to a private gambling database, which revealed that just 13.5% of gamblers end up winning."



No way 13.5% of gamblers are winners.
link to original post



That's from the casino statistics, 13% sounds about right to me. 70% of the time in a casino a player is up in profit at least once but he just keeps playing until it's gone.
link to original post



If it is just from casinos and on a per trip basis that may be correct. If you include all gambling such as lotteries that number is way over inflated.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 7485
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
Thanked by
EvenBobMission146
September 13th, 2023 at 2:50:44 PM permalink
DYOR.

The article is at https://stoppredatorygambling.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2013-How-Often-Do-Gamblers-Really-Win-New-data-provide-some-answers.pdf
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 2:56:55 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146



Pay walled. Does that 13% mean lifetime, or on a per visit basis? I can't see the full article, but I could believe it on a basis of individual player, individual visit---maybe even over a year; of course, some of those would just be one visit, or trip.
link to original post



https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/3831-how-much-gamble-do-you-have/#post900267
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 3:06:00 PM permalink
"On any given day, the chances of emerging a winner aren't too bad—the gamblers won money
on 30% of the days they wagered."

How did they do that, blind dumb luck? No, they did it because they accidentally were playing the game with their bets in a way that favored winning. If they could figure out how they did that accidentally, they could repeat it and win more often.

That's what I did. I mastered bet selection. Nothing else matters, bet selection is the king.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 5682
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 3:16:45 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

I don't beat the math, because the math does not apply to the short term...
link to original post



I hope someone is compiling a list of all these EvenBob "aphorisms." They could probably write a book by now.
link to original post



I'm still putting the final touches on my "Everything I know about Gambling" by Dieter Greene.

Still trying to get Shed Simove to agree to be my editor, he's a master of the genre.
May the cards fall in your favor.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 7485
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 3:21:28 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter


Still trying to get Shed Simove to agree to be my editor, he's a master of the genre.
link to original post



https://shedsimove.com/
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 3:24:01 PM permalink
"The lightest gamblers—the 10% of customers who placed the
fewest wagers over the two years—also had the highest winning percentage. About 17% of them.."

I have found this to be true also. I make as few bets as possible to make my goal, ideally only one bet is my favorite. The more often you bet the better your chances of losing whatever profit you have. Some people call it hit and run, I call it win and leave. And the statistics bear it out.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 4:40:34 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

I don't beat the math, because the math does not apply to the short term...
link to original post



I hope someone is compiling a list of all these EvenBob "aphorisms." They could probably write a book by now.
link to original post



So you think the law of big numbers applies to the short-term? Really. Please explain that to me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1449
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 4:57:06 PM permalink
Quote:

The article is at https://stoppredatorygambling.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/2013-How-Often-Do-Gamblers-Really-Win-New-data-provide-some-answers.pdf

Quote:


"Unless they cheat, about the only way gamblers can win at games of chance is to get lucky and then stop gambling."

I guess I must be cheating, then.

The study is very flawed because a large number of players sign up and play very briefly before cashing out. If you take the segment of players that played for 100 hours or more, the number of winners would be very small. As it is, we cannot tell how much the win and leave segment inflates the winner percentages.

Also, any study that does not count free slot play does not show the real picture. Some of the heavier gamblers can be clearing $1000 per day in FSP from a single site.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 5:28:58 PM permalink
Quote: Mental



The study is very flawed because
link to original post



How do you know what they studied and didn't study, there's no details. So you're just guessing. What would be the point of doing a very flawed study, they aren't trying to prove anything. My guess is it's not flawed at all, that they tried their best to give a fair and balanced picture.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1449
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 5:42:06 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Mental



The study is very flawed because
link to original post



How do you know what they studied and didn't study, there's no details. So you're just guessing. What would be the point of doing a very flawed study, they aren't trying to prove anything. My guess is it's not flawed at all, that they tried their best to give a fair and balanced picture.
link to original post

Fair enough. The presentation of the study by the WSJ is flawed and misleading.

"Big losers of more than $5,000 among these heavy gamblers outnumbered big winners by a staggering 128 to 1."

I think I am the 1.

The data sets are available for download. The data is quite old. The RTP for the raw data is just 93.36%. I don't think I have ever placed an online bet worse than 94% RTP, and my median bet on slots is probably 97.5% RTP.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1449
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
Thanked by
Mission146dcjohn
September 13th, 2023 at 6:03:09 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

I don't beat the math, because the math does not apply to the short term...
link to original post



I hope someone is compiling a list of all these EvenBob "aphorisms." They could probably write a book by now.
link to original post



So you think the law of big numbers applies to the short-term? Really. Please explain that to me.
link to original post

According to the law of large numbers, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value and tends to become closer to the expected value as more trials are performed.

Do you think there is a threshold number for the LLN to apply? If so what is that threshold?

The answer is there is no magic number or threshold. The LLN applies when you go from one wager to two wagers. The average results tends to become closer to the expected value when you go from a session length of one bet to a session length of two bets. This is easy to demonstrate in physical trials (coin tosses, for example) or Monte Carlo simulations.

I don't expect you to understand because the LLN is based on math.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
September 13th, 2023 at 7:53:03 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

The LLN applies when you go from one wager to two wagers.
link to original post



"The law of large numbers has a very central role in probability and statistics.
It states that if you repeat an experiment independently a LARGE NUMBER of
times and average the result, what you obtain should be close to the
EXPECTED VALUE". https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter7/7_1_1_law_of_large_numbers.php#:~:text=The%20law%20of%20large%20numbers,the%20law%20of%20large%20numbers.

Two wagers is not a large number of times too bet. You won't live long enough to place enough bets to make your wager fall under the LLN. Like I pointed out, the only thing the LLN effects is the casino and that's not even true all the time. Casinos frequently lose money as Steve Wynn points out, but in the end they always make a profit. That's because of the sheer number of wagers being made in the casino 24/7. That same math does not apply to the individual player. For an individual player anything can happen. He can buy in at the roulette table for $100 and lose that $100 in the first hour. Or he can make $500. There is no math that governs anything that short-term.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1449
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
Thanked by
Mission146dcjohn
September 14th, 2023 at 5:06:51 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Mental

The LLN applies when you go from one wager to two wagers.
link to original post



"The law of large numbers has a very central role in probability and statistics.
It states that if you repeat an experiment independently a LARGE NUMBER of
times and average the result, what you obtain should be close to the
EXPECTED VALUE". https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter7/7_1_1_law_of_large_numbers.php#:~:text=The%20law%20of%20large%20numbers,the%20law%20of%20large%20numbers.

Two wagers is not a large number of times too bet. You won't live long enough to place enough bets to make your wager fall under the LLN. Like I pointed out, the only thing the LLN effects is the casino and that's not even true all the time. Casinos frequently lose money as Steve Wynn points out, but in the end they always make a profit. That's because of the sheer number of wagers being made in the casino 24/7. That same math does not apply to the individual player. For an individual player anything can happen. He can buy in at the roulette table for $100 and lose that $100 in the first hour. Or he can make $500. There is no math that governs anything that short-term.
link to original post

Was your last sentence meant as a joke? Probability theory can be applied to one wager.

In your understanding, what is the threshold for the LLN to kick in? You say casinos achieve that threshold but individual bettors do not. So what is the specific number of bets where the LLN kicks in?

If you repeat an experiment independently a LARGE NUMBER of times and average the result, what you obtain should be close to the EXPECTED VALUE.

If you repeat an experiment independently a (LARGE NUMBER + 1) times and average the result, what you obtain tends to be closer to the EXPECTED VALUE.

Every experiment narrows the dispersion of the results normalized by the number of trials. The second experiment is the one that narrows the dispersion the most. The (LARGE NUMBER + 1) experiment hardly makes any difference at all.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
Thanked by
Mission146dcjohn
September 14th, 2023 at 5:39:30 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Mental

The LLN applies when you go from one wager to two wagers.
link to original post



"The law of large numbers has a very central role in probability and statistics.
It states that if you repeat an experiment independently a LARGE NUMBER of
times and average the result, what you obtain should be close to the
EXPECTED VALUE". https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter7/7_1_1_law_of_large_numbers.php#:~:text=The%20law%20of%20large%20numbers,the%20law%20of%20large%20numbers.

Two wagers is not a large number of times too bet. You won't live long enough to place enough bets to make your wager fall under the LLN. Like I pointed out, the only thing the LLN effects is the casino and that's not even true all the time. Casinos frequently lose money as Steve Wynn points out, but in the end they always make a profit. That's because of the sheer number of wagers being made in the casino 24/7. That same math does not apply to the individual player. For an individual player anything can happen. He can buy in at the roulette table for $100 and lose that $100 in the first hour. Or he can make $500. There is no math that governs anything that short-term.
link to original post

People fail to realize that multiple short-term sessions add up to the long term. If we use roulette as an example: While betting on even money bets, it doesn't take long for the HA to get you. It may take many spins to come near the exact HA, but it doesn't take long to be in the red.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Sep 14, 2023
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TigerWu
TigerWu
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5702
Joined: May 23, 2016
September 14th, 2023 at 7:17:57 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

I don't beat the math, because the math does not apply to the short term...
link to original post



I hope someone is compiling a list of all these EvenBob "aphorisms." They could probably write a book by now.
link to original post



So you think the law of big numbers applies to the short-term? Really. Please explain that to me.
link to original post



I said nothing about the law of large numbers. You said "math" does not apply to the short-term, which it obviously does.

Quote: Mental



I don't expect you to understand because the LLN is based on math.
link to original post



Zing
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4661
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 14th, 2023 at 7:40:22 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Its a good question. On the TV poker shows, Tom Dwan is always said to have lots of 'gamble' and thats what makes him interesting. He takes chances, he pushes the money out there when many others don't. How much gamble do you have? I have almost none. Card counting BJ for a few decades cured me from betting on games where I don't have an edge. I watch people in the casino all the time and am constantly amazed at how much gamble some people have. I'm not talking about clueless dicks, I mean people who understand the games. I admit, I'm envious and jealous of many of them. Taking risks is not my style, I'm a solid edge player. I can't even drive over a tall bridge without turning into a quivering mass of Jello, why should I be able to slide a black chip out there if I don't the odds are in my favor.
link to original post



I don’t understand how this is EvenBob
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 14th, 2023 at 8:19:53 AM permalink
Quote: Mental


In your understanding, what is the threshold for the LLN to kick in?
link to original post



What's the difference, you're never going to get there making one bet at a time. What matters is this:

"The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events or small numbers of events."

"This law of large numbers does not say anything about what will happen in a single observation or experiment. because individual events are unpredictable."
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 14th, 2023 at 8:24:46 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

People fail to realize that multiple short-term sessions add up to the long term.
link to original post



Yep. And every time it snows it has a little more to the glacier. Of course it doesn't actually become a glacier until it snows thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of times, but each snowfall does add to it. If you're there at the beginning when a glacier first starts you'll never live long enough for it to become an actual glacier. You start playing individual roulette sessions you'll never live long enough to reach the long term. What matters is:

"The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events or small numbers of events."

"This law of large numbers does not say anything about what will happen in a single observation or experiment. because individual events are unpredictable."
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 14th, 2023 at 8:28:21 AM permalink
Quote: unJon



I don’t understand how this is EvenBob
link to original post



I don't know what that post is about it was 13 years ago. I never played blackjack for decades so I don't know if I was quoting someone or what. Who knows. I played blackjack for a while just to have something to do and thought I could count cards but I wasn't. But that was probably in the early 90s.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
TigerWu
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5702
Joined: May 23, 2016
September 14th, 2023 at 8:30:25 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

because individual events are unpredictable."
link to original post



Unless you have the proper bet selection, eh, EB? Then you can predict them with 80% accuracy!
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 7485
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
September 14th, 2023 at 8:41:28 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I don’t understand how this is EvenBob
link to original post



I don't understand "I don’t understand how this is EvenBob"

Is a comma missing? Is there a '?' missing?
What are you saying Unjon?

It looks like typical EvenBob to me. Credit where it's due, he's been consistent since he joined this forum.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 7485
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
Thanked by
rawtuff
September 14th, 2023 at 8:52:37 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I never played blackjack for decades so I don't know if I was quoting someone or what.
link to original post


It was possibly your 'friend' that played blackjack for decades and maybe you were channelling him. Easy done, and heck, it was 13 years ago. Who could be expected to remember and explain such a distant historic post?

Mind you, how did you remember this thread to come to bump it this week? What brought it back to your attention?

And quite incidental: How could one think he was were counting cards and not be?

So many questions. Each probably an opportunity for you.
We all know where this will now take us. Same **** different day, and hey look, it's outside that sub-forum.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 7485
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
September 14th, 2023 at 9:07:38 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

because individual events are unpredictable."
link to original post



Unless you have the proper bet selection, eh, EB? Then you can predict them with 80% accuracy!
link to original post



Oh TigerWu....... Now you've done it.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 7485
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
September 14th, 2023 at 9:19:03 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

. . . . I know this is true because I do it every day. I don't beat the math, because the math does not apply to the short term. The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events. Read It and weep..
link to original post



THIRTEEN YEARS this thread remained dormant!!!!!

THIRTEEN ******g YEARS!

And then it gets bumped by EvenBob to make what point exactly! You guessed it.

We should have a medal for 'Thread Bump of the Decade'
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TigerWu
TigerWu
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5702
Joined: May 23, 2016
September 14th, 2023 at 9:36:43 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

THIRTEEN YEARS this thread remained dormant!!!!!

THIRTEEN ******g YEARS!

And then it gets bumped by EvenBob to make what point exactly! You guessed it.

We should have a medal for 'Thread Bump of the Decade'
link to original post



I wonder when EvenBob's shenanigans are going to be considered a violation of Rule 5: "Do not post the same message more than once."
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 64
  • Posts: 7485
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
September 14th, 2023 at 10:25:08 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: OnceDear

THIRTEEN YEARS this thread remained dormant!!!!!

THIRTEEN ******g YEARS!

And then it gets bumped by EvenBob to make what point exactly! You guessed it.

We should have a medal for 'Thread Bump of the Decade'
link to original post



I wonder when EvenBob's shenanigans are going to be considered a violation of Rule 5: "Do not post the same message more than once."
link to original post

When he's the last member here.

I'll exit the thread now. I've given it my star rating and I will not be feeding oxygen or fuel to this thread.

DFTT !
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 14th, 2023 at 10:34:53 AM permalink
So a lot of blah blah blah and a lot of yada yada yada and nobody has yet to address this:

"The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events or small numbers of events."

"This law of large numbers does not say anything about what will happen in a single observation or experiment. because individual events are unpredictable."

By all means let's talk about everything else but the fact that single events are not affected at all by the law of large numbers. You want some more quotes because they're everywhere on the internet on this subject. Every math person agrees, every real math person, that individual observations or events are not impacted by the law of large numbers. So why are the two constantly linked together then on gambling forums. It's because people are trying to make a point that does not exist. Each individual bet I make is on its own and anything can happen. This is why there are ways to get in make a profit and get out, I do it every day.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 14th, 2023 at 10:35:43 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

because individual events are unpredictable."
link to original post



Unless you have the proper bet selection, eh, EB? Then you can predict them with 80% accuracy!
link to original post



I never predict anything I make educated guesses from long observations of outcomes. Keep trying you'll get it right eventually.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1449
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
September 14th, 2023 at 10:54:30 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So a lot of blah blah blah and a lot of yada yada yada and nobody has yet to address this:

"The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events or small numbers of events."

"This law of large numbers does not say anything about what will happen in a single observation or experiment. because individual events are unpredictable."

By all means let's talk about everything else but the fact that single events are not affected at all by the law of large numbers. You want some more quotes because they're everywhere on the internet on this subject. Every math person agrees, every real math person, that individual observations or events are not impacted by the law of large numbers. So why are the two constantly linked together then on gambling forums. It's because people are trying to make a point that does not exist. Each individual bet I make is on its own and anything can happen. This is why there are ways to get in make a profit and get out, I do it every day.
link to original post

You are ducking the question. What number constitutes a large enough number to for the law of large numbers to apply?
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 14th, 2023 at 11:07:17 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

You are ducking the question. What number constitutes a large enough number to for the law of large numbers to apply?
link to original post



I asked Google and it said:

"Large" is not an exact number. All the Law of Large Numbers states is that eventually you'll get 'closer and closer' (in a precise mathematical sense) to the expected odds, not that there's a number you can point to and go "aha!

I looked at a bunch of other places and nobody wants to commit to exactly what the large number is. I know Mike ran a billion hands for baccarat. Is a billion enough? You tell me, you seem like you know the answer the way you keep asking. What number constitutes a large enough number for the law of large numbers to apply. I can't find anybody that will commit to that, so go ahead.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1449
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
September 14th, 2023 at 11:32:42 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: Mental

You are ducking the question. What number constitutes a large enough number to for the law of large numbers to apply?
link to original post



I asked Google and it said:

"Large" is not an exact number. All the Law of Large Numbers states is that eventually you'll get 'closer and closer' (in a precise mathematical sense) to the expected odds, not that there's a number you can point to and go "aha!

I looked at a bunch of other places and nobody wants to commit to exactly what the large number is. I know Mike ran a billion hands for baccarat. Is a billion enough? You tell me, you seem like you know the answer the way you keep asking. What number constitutes a large enough number for the law of large numbers to apply. I can't find anybody that will commit to that, so go ahead.
link to original post

You have implied that I am not a real math person, so I was hoping you could educate us all.

Here is a hypothetical game with an 1-for-1 money payoff. I roll one die. You win if the number rolled is one through six. Otherwise, you lose. The theoretical long-term RTP is 1 (exactly unity).

If I do one trial/roll, the average RTP of all trials will be unity. If I do two trials, the average RTP will still be unity. The law of numbers has already been satisfied. The experimental result has converged on the theoretical result. No number of additional trials will get us any closer to the theoretical RTP.

For some classes of probability distributions, an infinite number of trials will not converge to a stable RTP. So, the answer I will give you is the the threshold number is between one trial and more than infinity.
Last edited by: Mental on Sep 14, 2023
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
TigerWu
TigerWu
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5702
Joined: May 23, 2016
September 14th, 2023 at 12:07:43 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So a lot of blah blah blah and a lot of yada yada yada and nobody has yet to address this:

"The law of large numbers does not apply to individual events or small numbers of events."

"This law of large numbers does not say anything about what will happen in a single observation or experiment. because individual events are unpredictable."

By all means let's talk about everything else but the fact that single events are not affected at all by the law of large numbers.
link to original post



Everyone knows individual events are not affected by the law of large numbers. Literally no one is arguing otherwise. Mental just wanted to know what you consider "large." What is there to "address" or discuss?

Quote: EvenBob


I never predict anything I make educated guesses from long observations of outcomes.
link to original post



Hey, I have a gambling system, too!
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1449
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
September 14th, 2023 at 12:10:09 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Hey, I have a gambling system, too!
link to original post

Everyone on the casino bus has a gambling system as good or better than EB's nonsystematic system.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1449
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
September 14th, 2023 at 12:10:10 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Hey, I have a gambling system, too!
link to original post

Everyone on the casino bus has a gambling system as good or better than EB's nonsystematic system. I actually like the fact that EB doesn't want to explain his system because I hated being trapped on a bus having to listen to the whacko explanations.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 29012
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
September 14th, 2023 at 1:07:57 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Everyone knows individual events are not affected by the law of large numbers.
link to original post



So you agree that the law of large numbers has absolutely nothing to do with where I should place my next bet in a game like roulette. If everybody knows individual outcomes are not affected in the slightest by the law of large numbers then where I place my next bet is a event completely separate from the law of large numbers and how it applies to roulette. Right? Is that a correct statement? Be careful with your answer because this is obviously a trap I'm setting in case you were curious. So far you walked into it just fine, let's see how much further you will go. Mental doesn't want to walk into it, he wants to blah blah blah and yada yada yada on the finer points of what a large number is.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
  • Jump to: