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OnceDear
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September 18th, 2023 at 3:10:38 PM permalink
Quote: avianrandy

So what is the priority of coming on here posting all this if the only person it is Important to are you and the casino?
link to original post

If one has the Holy Grail, sipping from it and having eternal life is cool, but where's the fun in that if you can't convince people that you have it (without actually showing it)?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
EvenBob
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September 18th, 2023 at 3:33:46 PM permalink
Quote: avianrandy

So what is the priority of coming on here posting all this if the only person it is Important to are you and the casino?
link to original post



It's not a priority, it's just something to do. It keeps my mind working about roulette, and I actually enjoy people telling me what I'm doing and what I'm not doing when they don't have any idea. I get the biggest kick out of that. The last laugh, so to speak.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 18th, 2023 at 3:53:08 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I couldn't say it better than you did yourself all those years ago.
link to original post



If you can't discredit the message, and you cannot, try and discredit the messenger. It's what people do who's quiver has run out of arrows, as yours obviously has.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 18th, 2023 at 5:22:09 PM permalink
What I used to do is as soon as I got home from the casino I would laboriously enter the numbers from the roulette card into my roulette simulation software so I can play them later in the week to see if I did better than I did in the casino. I was really into this for a very long time, years and years. I still do it everyday of course but now I rarely practice it's just play play play online. It's very difficult teaching yourself something when you have no teacher, when there's no place you can turn for advice or examples. You have to do everything yourself.

This is the roulette software, you can still buy it online for $30. Well worth the money it's been an indispensable tool for me. The great thing about it is you can import actual roulette sessions from Germany and download them into the software. There are half a dozen German casinos that publish the results of all the roulette wheels every day and have been for the last 20 years. This is an unbelievable resource if you're serious about roulette, to be able to play actual results from a live dealer wheel.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mental
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September 18th, 2023 at 5:26:14 PM permalink
“Alice laughed. 'There's no use trying,' she said. 'One can't believe impossible things.'

I daresay you haven't had much practice,' said the Queen. 'When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast. There goes the shawl again!”
― Lewis Carroll
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
EvenBob
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September 18th, 2023 at 5:26:39 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

one has the Holy Grail,
link to original post



I do not have the Holy Grail, it doesn't exist. The Holy Grail is where you can sit down and play at any time and win. There is no such thing and there never will be.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 18th, 2023 at 5:32:13 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

“Alice laughed. 'There's no use trying,' she said. 'One can't believe impossible things.'

link to original post



So you doubt my roulette cards are real? They are very real, and painstakingly acquired one at a time. Look at them, look at the patina, which means look at the age of the cards. They are obviously not new, they're not something that I scribbled on yesterday and I'm trying to pass off as something that I did years ago. These have the stink of authenticity all over them. I wish I would have known they still existed I would have posted them much sooner but I haven't cleaned my basement in over 20 years, I mean totally cleaned it out like I'm doing now.

I'm going to go through these cards and post more details, there is a wealth of information here.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ChumpChange
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September 18th, 2023 at 6:13:40 PM permalink
I turned $5K into $40K this afternoon playing Black Jack in 147 hands. I've recovered my bankroll from $65K to $105K. I had to raise the table limits to $10K from $3K but only needed $4K before I called it quits because I octupled my session buy-in.
ChumpChange
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September 18th, 2023 at 6:36:08 PM permalink
I probably have a couple thousand sheets of paper that I've either written or typed/printed my gambling strategies on. I should spend a month trying to scan them into my computer.
EvenBob
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September 18th, 2023 at 6:59:29 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I probably have a couple thousand sheets of paper that I've either written or typed/printed my gambling strategies on. I should spend a month trying to scan them into my computer.
link to original post



LOL.. Parody is the sincerest form of flattery. Thank you for taking the time to parody what I do.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
ChumpChange
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September 18th, 2023 at 7:14:14 PM permalink
Not exaggerating, and you never mentioned scanning.
EvenBob
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OnceDear
September 18th, 2023 at 8:18:51 PM permalink
In case anyone is doubting the authenticity of these cards, here's a picture of a used deck of playing cards. Notice the soiling on the edges that happens when people use them, when they actually use them in card games. Look at the soiling on the edges of my roulette cards, that's because I actually used them. Look how the corners are rounded, look at the patina of age on them. You can't fake that, and believe me people try. Faking patina on paper is very very difficult. These roulette cards are obviously old and they've obviously been used.

Here's a deck of used playing cards, and a deck of new playing cards so you can see the difference. When these roulette cards were new they look just like a deck of playing cards. They came in packs of 100 and they looked and stacked exactly like playing cards. So these cards are the real thing, I actually used them in the casino betting money from 2007 to 2009. And what I wrote on them was the actual results of my games. What would be the purpose of writing anything else because I was the only one that was ever going to see these. Eventually I had hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of cards but I threw them all away, I probably had thousands when I think about it. Cards from Michigan Indian casinos and Las Vegas casinos from when I visited there since I started playing roulette. The casino that I never had any cards from is my local casino because they're too cheap to print any so I always used small notebooks when I went there. But I threw everything away because I had no need for it and it took up a lot of room. This box I found in the basement I had no idea it was there and for me it's like finding buried treasure. Because it's absolute proof that I went to the casino and I played this game and I won most of the time. If you think it's not proof then you have no idea what proof looks like.



"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
OnceDear
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September 19th, 2023 at 1:15:05 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

In case anyone is doubting the authenticity of these cards, here's a picture of a used deck of playing cards. ...
Here's a deck of used playing cards, and a deck of new playing cards so you can see the difference. When these roulette cards were new they look just like a deck of playing cards. They came in packs of 100 and they looked and stacked exactly like playing cards. So these cards are the real thing, I actually used them in the casino betting money from 2007 to 2009. And what I wrote on them was the actual results of my games. What would be the purpose of writing anything else because I was the only one that was ever going to see these. Eventually I had hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of cards but I threw them all away, I probably had thousands when I think about it. Cards from Michigan Indian casinos and Las Vegas casinos from when I visited there since I started playing roulette. The casino that I never had any cards from is my local casino because they're too cheap to print any so I always used small notebooks when I went there. But I threw everything away because I had no need for it and it took up a lot of room. This box I found in the basement I had no idea it was there and for me it's like finding buried treasure. Because it's absolute proof that I went to the casino and I played this game and I won most of the time. If you think it's not proof then you have no idea what proof looks like.
link to original post

EB. I believe that they are old cards from your basement. I have no reason not to.

They support your assertion that you took copious notes of some roulette spin outcomes.
They support that you believed that it was worth doing so.
How do they support your assertion that you ever wagered so much as a dollar?
How do they prove that you don't have an equally large pile where you lost more guesses than you won and that you didn't like to keep the 'good records' separate?


Here's a picture of a horse and a unicorn.
🐴 🦄
See how the unicorn is white with a pink mane? and the horse is brown?
Does that prove that Henry my unicorn is white?

Patently not, because that is not a picture of Henry! Henry is Blue and camera shy.

So. No. I don't know what proof looks like. Your proof looks like an embarrassment to me.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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September 19th, 2023 at 3:21:35 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I turned $5K into $40K this afternoon playing Black Jack in 147 hands. I've recovered my bankroll from $65K to $105K. I had to raise the table limits to $10K from $3K but only needed $4K before I called it quits because I octupled my session buy-in.

link to original post

Nice one CC. Thanks for posting the undeniable evidence. A couple of questions...

Is this real money or 'practice' money?
What would you have done if you had lost your buy-in? Buy in again out of your bankroll, or simply not post about the session?
I look forward to seeing your scanned in notes. Take as long as you need, though.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
ChumpChange
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September 19th, 2023 at 5:19:00 AM permalink
It was play money from a demo game, which I've posted about elsewhere in my Software Sessions Thread that people in the forum tend to avoid like the plague. If I had lost, I would have started another session from my bankroll. This was just a winning session I decided to post. I was at a $140K+ bankroll much earlier and have gradually lost some of that back to repeated lost sessions of $5K or $10K buy-ins, to a low of a $65K bankroll on the last buy-in for this session. I'm back to a $105K bankroll and I thought it was a good place to stop before it all comes crashing down again. My next buy-in will be $5K again. Apparently this game has no problem making me lose more than a dozen sessions before letting me win 10X my buy-in back again. I have no idea how I would fare on a real table, but this really does give me a lot of hope. I've gotten to over a million dollars before my computer crashed last time on this game. Just a few winning $10K buy-ins adds $100K to my bankroll each time. I could be adding $400K per winning session from a $40K buy-in with a $25K table limit. I think the highest real table limit I could find in my region is $5K, so that would limit me to $7.5K buy-ins and $75K winning sessions at a real table.
I don't expect that I'll ever post my notes, but I do make an effort to post some software session results.
I'm switching my internal hard drives over to SSD's this past year and syncing up the information on them is what I need to do. I expect I'll get new computers when Windows 12 comes out next year. All of my usable computers are 11-15 years old.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Sep 19, 2023
TigerWu
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September 19th, 2023 at 6:08:27 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: OnceDear

I couldn't say it better than you did yourself all those years ago.
link to original post



If you can't discredit the message, and you cannot, try and discredit the messenger. It's what people do who's quiver has run out of arrows, as yours obviously has.
link to original post



Discrediting the messenger is also what people do when the messenger is full of ****.
EvenBob
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September 19th, 2023 at 7:26:09 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear



They support your assertion that you took copious notes of some roulette spin outcomes.
They support that you believed that it was worth doing so.
How do they support your assertion that you ever wagered so much as a dollar?

link to original post



These aren't 'notes', they are a bet by bet transcription of what happened in the casino the day I played. They're called roulette cards and they are supplied to you by the casino. They are dated, they're filled out in my handwriting, they show the numbers that appeared, and how many bets I got right and how many I got wrong. These have the stink of authenticity all over them and would be admissible in court as evidence. If it's thought I drove an hour and 15 minutes to a casino and sat there for an hour to 90 minutes twice a week for 2 years and wagered nothing then that opinion has the stink of unicorn manure all over it. I could present a 3-hour video of me playing with witnesses claiming it was me and you would still say, how do we know it's not somebody who looks like him. There is absolutely nothing that will ever convince you because you don't want to be convinced, so you will throw stones at every bit of evidence that's presented. These roulette cards are real, recorded by me of games I actually played and bet money in, like it or lump it, those are the facts.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 19th, 2023 at 7:30:13 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu



Discrediting the messenger is also what people do when the messenger is full of ****.
link to original post



99% of the time it's what people do when the message is factual and they don't want the message to get out there so they discredit the messenger. It's the same thing people do when you're having a face-to-face argument with somebody and they are losing the argument and running out of ammo, so they start calling you names to divert attention from the fact that they've lost the argument. When they start doing that you know you won.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
OnceDear
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September 19th, 2023 at 7:31:54 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Apparently this game has no problem making me lose more than a dozen sessions before letting me win 10X my buy-in back again. I have no idea how I would fare on a real table, but this really does give me a lot of hope.

That's actually a perfectly reasonable scenario, if each time you approach the table aspiring to octuple or dectuple your Buy in, or lose it. You can reasonably expect to octuple your buy in 0,1,2,or even 3 times in any dozen buy-ins. The problem is do you have the bottle to throw that kind of real money at the game knowing that you might easily lose a dozen $5,000 buy ins.
Quote:

link to original post

Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
ChumpChange
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September 19th, 2023 at 7:40:41 AM permalink
If I win in the first 3 sessions, I may not have to worry too much after that. I'd be starting from scratch at the real tables. My buy-ins would be in the $200-$500 range, eventually going up to $1K buy-ins and I'll probably stick there until I win $10K enough times. I expect I'll hit $100K by the time I hit hand number 10K.
TigerWu
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September 19th, 2023 at 7:58:24 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob



link to original post



Looks like the results of about 20,000 spins in that one photo. Wonder if that's large enough for the LLN rear its ugly head....

And this is only a fraction of EB's results......
billryan
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September 19th, 2023 at 8:24:34 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu



Discrediting the messenger is also what people do when the messenger is full of ****.
link to original post



99% of the time it's what people do when the message is factual and they don't want the message to get out there so they discredit the messenger. It's the same thing people do when you're having a face-to-face argument with somebody and they are losing the argument and running out of ammo, so they start calling you names to divert attention from the fact that they've lost the argument. When they start doing that you know you won.
link to original post



Who was it who said " The woman doth protest too much, methinks?"
Asking for a friend.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
EvenBob
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September 19th, 2023 at 10:10:54 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob



link to original post



Looks like the results of about 20,000 spins in that one photo. Wonder if that's large enough for the LLN rear its ugly head....

And this is only a fraction of EB's results......
link to original post



Closer to 8,000 spins which is not even a speck on a wart on a donkey's butt as far as LLN is concerned.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
EvenBob
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September 19th, 2023 at 10:12:30 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu



Discrediting the messenger is also what people do when the messenger is full of ****.
link to original post



99% of the time it's what people do when the message is factual and they don't want the message to get out there so they discredit the messenger. It's the same thing people do when you're having a face-to-face argument with somebody and they are losing the argument and running out of ammo, so they start calling you names to divert attention from the fact that they've lost the argument. When they start doing that you know you won.
link to original post



Who was it who said " The woman doth protest too much, methinks?"
Asking for a friend.
link to original post



I have no idea what this is referring to. If you mean people should start giving me the benefit of the doubt then I agree. I've presented way too much evidence.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
TigerWu
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September 19th, 2023 at 10:38:54 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob


I have no idea what this is referring to. If you mean people should start giving me the benefit of the doubt then I agree. I've presented way too much evidence.
link to original post



Evidence that you've been gambling for years? Agree 100%.
EvenBob
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September 19th, 2023 at 10:59:36 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob


I have no idea what this is referring to. If you mean people should start giving me the benefit of the doubt then I agree. I've presented way too much evidence.
link to original post



Evidence that you've been gambling for years? Agree 100%.
link to original post



That's a start. I'm usually accused of never having gone to a casino in my life and never having played roulette. At least now you're admitting that I've been playing roulette for years. About time..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
tuttigym
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September 19th, 2023 at 11:17:40 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: OnceDear



They support your assertion that you took copious notes of some roulette spin outcomes.
They support that you believed that it was worth doing so.
How do they support your assertion that you ever wagered so much as a dollar?

link to original post



These aren't 'notes', they are a bet by bet transcription of what happened in the casino the day I played. They're called roulette cards and they are supplied to you by the casino. They are dated, they're filled out in my handwriting, they show the numbers that appeared, and how many bets I got right and how many I got wrong. These have the stink of authenticity all over them and would be admissible in court as evidence. If it's thought I drove an hour and 15 minutes to a casino and sat there for an hour to 90 minutes twice a week for 2 years and wagered nothing then that opinion has the stink of unicorn manure all over it. I could present a 3-hour video of me playing with witnesses claiming it was me and you would still say, how do we know it's not somebody who looks like him. There is absolutely nothing that will ever convince you because you don't want to be convinced, so you will throw stones at every bit of evidence that's presented. These roulette cards are real, recorded by me of games I actually played and bet money in, like it or lump it, those are the facts.


link to original post


SO WHAT!!

tuttigym
tuttigym
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September 19th, 2023 at 11:24:06 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob



link to original post



Looks like the results of about 20,000 spins in that one photo. Wonder if that's large enough for the LLN rear its ugly head....

And this is only a fraction of EB's results......
link to original post



Closer to 8,000 spins which is not even a speck on a wart on a donkey's butt as far as LLN is concerned.
link to original post


You been out on the farm again inspecting the stock?

tuttigym
OnceDear
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September 19th, 2023 at 11:50:12 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob


I have no idea what this is referring to. If you mean people should start giving me the benefit of the doubt then I agree. I've presented way too much evidence.
link to original post



Evidence that you've been gambling for years? Agree 100%.
link to original post


???
Evidence?
I have to disagree with you TigerWu.

I see no evidence that he has ever placed a wager, let alone gambled ( which he says he never does anyway )

I'm delighted by the evidence he has just shown.
Evidence that we don't all have a shared definition of 'proof'
Evidence that he cares what we think.
Evidence that he is not familiar with Hamlet's "the lady doth protest too much, methinks"
In context, I understand that "The Lady" represents a person making claims in this thread and "doth protest too much" simply means "makes implausible and untrue claims too frequently to be believed". In Hamlet, 'the Lady' is an actress representing Queen Gertrude protesting her fidelity, wherein she KNEW her fidelity to be untrue.

EB seems to have totally misinterpreted the reference. Happy to try to enlighten him.

I did used to wonder whether EB believed his own narrative.
I perceive evidence that he does believe it.
I perceive evidence that he is keen for others here to believe it.
Hard to see why any of us should care.

People should not and will not start giving EB the benefit of the doubt. There is no doubt.

All academic
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TigerWu
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September 19th, 2023 at 12:05:38 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

At least now you're admitting that I've been playing roulette for years. About time..
link to original post



I mean, it's "about time" you showed some evidence, too (e.g. these cards and the online logs). Your roulette ramblings were nonsensical and rife with misunderstandings and poor math, so you can't blame someone for thinking you had never played the game before.
tuttigym
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September 19th, 2023 at 12:31:45 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

At least now you're admitting that I've been playing roulette for years. About time..
link to original post



I mean, it's "about time" you showed some evidence, too (e.g. these cards and the online logs). Your roulette ramblings were nonsensical and rife with misunderstandings and poor math, so you can't blame someone for thinking you had never played the game before.
link to original post


I wonder if there was any yelling or screaming of delight with the others at the tables winning or losing. I recall that he said he never heard such.

tuttigym
OnceDear
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September 19th, 2023 at 12:44:40 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

At least now you're admitting that I've been playing roulette for years. About time..
link to original post



I mean, it's "about time" you showed some evidence, too (e.g. these cards and the online logs). Your roulette ramblings were nonsensical and rife with misunderstandings and poor math, so you can't blame someone for thinking you had never played the game before.
link to original post


I wonder if there was any yelling or screaming of delight with the others at the tables winning or losing. I recall that he said he never heard such.

tuttigym
link to original post

Why would there be? Whooping over an infrequent one shot $5 win on an even money bet? Followed by win and leave? EB would not be noticed by Pit or players. Pay attention tuttigym $:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
tuttigym
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September 19th, 2023 at 12:54:30 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: EvenBob

At least now you're admitting that I've been playing roulette for years. About time..
link to original post



I mean, it's "about time" you showed some evidence, too (e.g. these cards and the online logs). Your roulette ramblings were nonsensical and rife with misunderstandings and poor math, so you can't blame someone for thinking you had never played the game before.
link to original post


I wonder if there was any yelling or screaming of delight with the others at the tables winning or losing. I recall that he said he never heard such.

tuttigym
link to original post

Why would there be? Whooping over an infrequent one shot $5 win on an even money bet? Followed by win and leave? EB would not be noticed by Pit or players. Pay attention tuttigym $:o)
link to original post


Read the post again, OD. I wasn't posting about EB's wins or losses, and get some rest.

tuttigym
billryan
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September 19th, 2023 at 1:04:04 PM permalink
I've been thinking about this and need it critiqued.

Any number on a roulette wheel will come up one in 38 times, but only pays 35-1.
The wheel doesn't know or care what number just came up.
I'll give the rest later, but before I do- what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?
I've gotten three different answers and not sure which is correct.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TigerWu
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September 19th, 2023 at 1:15:46 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

EB would not be noticed by Pit or players.
link to original post



That's all by design... EB doesn't want to get noticed by the pit because too many $5 wins will get him kicked out of the casino.

How do you think he's been able to stay under the radar for 18 years?
SOOPOO
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September 19th, 2023 at 1:39:24 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I've been thinking about this and need it critiqued.

Any number on a roulette wheel will come up one in 38 times, but only pays 35-1.
The wheel doesn't know or care what number just came up.
I'll give the rest later, but before I do- what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?
I've gotten three different answers and not sure which is correct.
link to original post



37/38 to the 65th power. Or somewhere around 17% of the time. (Double zero wheel).
OnceDear
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September 19th, 2023 at 1:47:02 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I've been thinking about this and need it critiqued.

Any number on a roulette wheel will come up one in 38 times, but only pays 35-1.

Any number on a roulette wheel will tend towards coming up one in 38 times, but only pays 35:1. 35 TO 1, just to be clear.
Quote:

The wheel doesn't know or care what number just came up.


Nor what colour, nor parity, nor row, street or column.
Quote: EvenBob Elsewhere

The wheel has 37 pockets. We number them for the
sake of keeping track of them. The pockets don't
know they have numbers. They don't know half of them
are high and half are low, half are red and half are black,
etc.

Quote: billryan

I'll give the rest later, but before I do- what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?
I've gotten three different answers and not sure which is correct.
link to original post

Let's work it out from scatch and compare to the three answers you have...

Very specifically, you ask "what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?". One of the easiest things to work out.
On spin #1. the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
On any INDIVIDUAL spin, the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
For a number to not be hit in any set of 65 spins, it must clear that hurdle 65 times. The probability is (37/38)^65 = 0.176676295397 = 17.668%
Or, we could say that a number WILL hit at least once in a set of 65 spins with 82.332% probability
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Mental
Mental
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September 19th, 2023 at 2:08:26 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I've been thinking about this and need it critiqued.

Any number on a roulette wheel will come up one in 38 times, but only pays 35-1.
The wheel doesn't know or care what number just came up.
I'll give the rest later, but before I do- what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?
I've gotten three different answers and not sure which is correct.
link to original post

Probability 0.1766763 = BINOMDIST(0, 65, 1/38, 0)

Exactly one time in 65 spins, 0.3103773
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
TigerWu
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September 19th, 2023 at 2:09:23 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


For a number to not be hit in any set of 65 spins, it must clear that hurdle 65 times. The probability is (37/38)^65 = 0.176676295397 = 17.668%
Or, we could say that a number WILL hit at least once in a set of 65 spins with 82.332% probability
link to original post



Pfff.... Probability is meaningless without proper BET SELECTION.
OnceDear
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September 19th, 2023 at 2:16:16 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: OnceDear


For a number to not be hit in any set of 65 spins, it must clear that hurdle 65 times. The probability is (37/38)^65 = 0.176676295397 = 17.668%
Or, we could say that a number WILL hit at least once in a set of 65 spins with 82.332% probability
link to original post



Pfff.... Probability is meaningless without proper BET SELECTION.
link to original post


And who can forget that old chestnut 'Empirical Probability'
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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September 19th, 2023 at 2:44:26 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

I've been thinking about this and need it critiqued.

Any number on a roulette wheel will come up one in 38 times, but only pays 35-1.

Any number on a roulette wheel will tend towards coming up one in 38 times, but only pays 35:1. 35 TO 1, just to be clear.
Quote:

The wheel doesn't know or care what number just came up.


Nor what colour, nor parity, nor row, street or column.
Quote: EvenBob Elsewhere

The wheel has 37 pockets. We number them for the
sake of keeping track of them. The pockets don't
know they have numbers. They don't know half of them
are high and half are low, half are red and half are black,
etc.

Quote: billryan

I'll give the rest later, but before I do- what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?
I've gotten three different answers and not sure which is correct.
link to original post

Let's work it out from scatch and compare to the three answers you have...

Very specifically, you ask "what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?". One of the easiest things to work out.
On spin #1. the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
On any INDIVIDUAL spin, the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
For a number to not be hit in any set of 65 spins, it must clear that hurdle 65 times. The probability is (37/38)^65 = 0.176676295397 = 17.668%
Or, we could say that a number WILL hit at least once in a set of 65 spins with 82.332% probability
link to original post



Very good.
Now we can be imaginative. Lets suppose I can track a hundred wheels, using multiple computers.
Currently, our program reveals five wheels where the number 7 has not come up for the last thirty spins. We place a $1 bet on one of those wheels . If the number 7 comes up, we win between 35-1 if it comes up on the first spin or break even if it comes up on the 35th spin. There is roughly an 18% chance we lose $35 but an 82 percent chance the number hits and we get paid. Now, if we extend it out and double our bet on the 36th spin, we break even or come out as long as the #7 doesn't appear for 103 times. If it doesn't, we lose $111.
Where am I wrong? It seems like a person would cash out well over 95% of the time.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
avianrandy
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September 19th, 2023 at 2:51:46 PM permalink
Kind of strange how this thread morphed in to talking about roulette again. As for whooping it up, people do that for different reasons. I was once at a racino and a lady was whooping it up when she found out she could get free sodas while gambling.indiana doesn't give out free alcoholic beverages but they give out sodas.
EvenBob
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September 19th, 2023 at 2:55:18 PM permalink
Quote: billryan


Where am I wrong? It seems like a person would cash out well over 95% of the time.
link to original post



These are called cold numbers, numbers that haven't shown up in a while and they usually appear on the roulette tote board. It will list the numbers that have appeared the most and have appeared the least. The problem is, sometimes numbers have a tendency to quite often 'sleep' for extended lengths of time, I'm talking hundreds of spins. It's not unusual for a single number to sleep for 300 or 400 spins. There are people who play the hot and cold numbers as a system and can do quite well at it if you know what you're doing. It has never interested me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mental
Mental
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September 19th, 2023 at 2:59:59 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

I've been thinking about this and need it critiqued.

Any number on a roulette wheel will come up one in 38 times, but only pays 35-1.

Any number on a roulette wheel will tend towards coming up one in 38 times, but only pays 35:1. 35 TO 1, just to be clear.
Quote:

The wheel doesn't know or care what number just came up.


Nor what colour, nor parity, nor row, street or column.
Quote: EvenBob Elsewhere

The wheel has 37 pockets. We number them for the
sake of keeping track of them. The pockets don't
know they have numbers. They don't know half of them
are high and half are low, half are red and half are black,
etc.

Quote: billryan

I'll give the rest later, but before I do- what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?
I've gotten three different answers and not sure which is correct.
link to original post

Let's work it out from scatch and compare to the three answers you have...

Very specifically, you ask "what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?". One of the easiest things to work out.
On spin #1. the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
On any INDIVIDUAL spin, the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
For a number to not be hit in any set of 65 spins, it must clear that hurdle 65 times. The probability is (37/38)^65 = 0.176676295397 = 17.668%
Or, we could say that a number WILL hit at least once in a set of 65 spins with 82.332% probability
link to original post



Very good.
Now we can be imaginative. Lets suppose I can track a hundred wheels, using multiple computers.
Currently, our program reveals five wheels where the number 7 has not come up for the last thirty spins. We place a $1 bet on one of those wheels . If the number 7 comes up, we win between 35-1 if it comes up on the first spin or break even if it comes up on the 35th spin. There is roughly an 18% chance we lose $35 but an 82 percent chance the number hits and we get paid. Now, if we extend it out and double our bet on the 36th spin, we break even or come out as long as the #7 doesn't appear for 103 times. If it doesn't, we lose $111.
Where am I wrong? It seems like a person would cash out well over 95% of the time.
link to original post

Jeez, your trying to create yet another betting system? You can create a high probability of small wins like martingale. You have not changed the EV. I am done with your system
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
EvenBob
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September 19th, 2023 at 3:03:39 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu



Pfff.... Probability is meaningless without proper BET SELECTION.
link to original post



Proper bet selection actually comes from probability. I'm not quite sure why people here are always deriding bet election, it's what everybody does when they play any table game. You choose where to place your bet. Even in horse racing there are people that go around actually selling tips on where to place your bet, and some of them do quite well at it. People count cards in blackjack to improve their bet selection. There's a way to improve your chance of winning in every game if you just know how to find it. If you just assume there isn't, that's your loss and the casinos gain.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
billryan
billryan
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September 19th, 2023 at 3:28:21 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: billryan

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

I've been thinking about this and need it critiqued.

Any number on a roulette wheel will come up one in 38 times, but only pays 35-1.

Any number on a roulette wheel will tend towards coming up one in 38 times, but only pays 35:1. 35 TO 1, just to be clear.
Quote:

The wheel doesn't know or care what number just came up.


Nor what colour, nor parity, nor row, street or column.
Quote: EvenBob Elsewhere

The wheel has 37 pockets. We number them for the
sake of keeping track of them. The pockets don't
know they have numbers. They don't know half of them
are high and half are low, half are red and half are black,
etc.

Quote: billryan

I'll give the rest later, but before I do- what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?
I've gotten three different answers and not sure which is correct.
link to original post

Let's work it out from scatch and compare to the three answers you have...

Very specifically, you ask "what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?". One of the easiest things to work out.
On spin #1. the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
On any INDIVIDUAL spin, the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
For a number to not be hit in any set of 65 spins, it must clear that hurdle 65 times. The probability is (37/38)^65 = 0.176676295397 = 17.668%
Or, we could say that a number WILL hit at least once in a set of 65 spins with 82.332% probability
link to original post



Very good.
Now we can be imaginative. Lets suppose I can track a hundred wheels, using multiple computers.
Currently, our program reveals five wheels where the number 7 has not come up for the last thirty spins. We place a $1 bet on one of those wheels . If the number 7 comes up, we win between 35-1 if it comes up on the first spin or break even if it comes up on the 35th spin. There is roughly an 18% chance we lose $35 but an 82 percent chance the number hits and we get paid. Now, if we extend it out and double our bet on the 36th spin, we break even or come out as long as the #7 doesn't appear for 103 times. If it doesn't, we lose $111.
Where am I wrong? It seems like a person would cash out well over 95% of the time.
link to original post

Jeez, your trying to create yet another betting system? You can create a high probability of small wins like martingale. You have not changed the EV. I am done with your system


link to original post



I'm not creating anything. I'm showing how a losing system can still produce a high winning percentage., but please, be done with this. It doesn't sound like you have much to add.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
OnceDear
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rawtuff
September 19th, 2023 at 6:39:55 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: billryan

I've been thinking about this and need it critiqued.

Any number on a roulette wheel will come up one in 38 times, but only pays 35-1.

Any number on a roulette wheel will tend towards coming up one in 38 times, but only pays 35:1. 35 TO 1, just to be clear.
Quote:

The wheel doesn't know or care what number just came up.


Nor what colour, nor parity, nor row, street or column.
Quote: EvenBob Elsewhere

The wheel has 37 pockets. We number them for the
sake of keeping track of them. The pockets don't
know they have numbers. They don't know half of them
are high and half are low, half are red and half are black,
etc.

Quote: billryan

I'll give the rest later, but before I do- what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?
I've gotten three different answers and not sure which is correct.
link to original post

Let's work it out from scatch and compare to the three answers you have...

Very specifically, you ask "what are the odds a particular number will not appear for 65 spins?". One of the easiest things to work out.
On spin #1. the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
On any INDIVIDUAL spin, the probability that number 'x' won't show is 37/38
For a number to not be hit in any set of 65 spins, it must clear that hurdle 65 times. The probability is (37/38)^65 = 0.176676295397 = 17.668%
Or, we could say that a number WILL hit at least once in a set of 65 spins with 82.332% probability
link to original post


Very good.
Now we can be imaginative. Lets suppose I can track a hundred wheels, using multiple computers.
Currently, our program reveals five wheels where the number 7 has not come up for the last thirty spins. We place a $1 bet on one of those wheels . If the number 7 comes up, we win between 35-1 if it comes up on the first spin or break even if it comes up on the 35th spin. There is roughly an 18% chance we lose $35 but an 82 percent chance the number hits and we get paid. Now, if we extend it out and double our bet on the 36th spin, we break even or come out as long as the #7 doesn't appear for 103 times. If it doesn't, we lose $111.
Where am I wrong? It seems like a person would cash out well over 95% of the time.
link to original post



I cannot be bothered to analyse your scenario, because it cannot, will not and does not make any different to the expected value.

Are you actually taking the urine with this post?
Are you really an adherent to the gambler's fallacy?

What does tracking the wheels do to change the house edge? What does the fact that some wheels have not hit 7 tell us about the future?

what's so magical about waiting 35 spins on the wheels that have not hit 7 is something supposed to be 'Due' where did you derive your 82% probability of the 7 hitting within 35 spins? I thought we showed you that it was 82% probable that it would hit some time in the 65 spins from when you make the decision to monitor it, not from when you have monitored it already.

If you monitor and track a million wheels and wait until you see one that doesn't hit a 7 for 64 spins, do you really believe that those wheels have 82% chance of hitting 7 on the next spin, because that is spin 65? Sorry dude. future results have to be in the future.
If you wait until you see one that doesn't hit a 7 for a million spins and then start betting on it coming up 7, then there is an 82% chance that 7 will hit before spin 1,000,065 spins

Nothing beyond that nonsense is worth analysing.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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September 19th, 2023 at 7:11:30 PM permalink
I didn't ask you to analyze it, did I?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AxelWolf
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TigerWu
September 19th, 2023 at 8:58:29 PM permalink
Math is futile when you have a guy who plays single zero roulette and claims he ignores the green (zero).

20 years of "meticulous" logs and roulette study, thousands of posts about roulette... all to finally pay a few hundred a month in bills during your golden years.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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September 19th, 2023 at 9:02:45 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: OnceDear



They support your assertion that you took copious notes of some roulette spin outcomes.
They support that you believed that it was worth doing so.
How do they support your assertion that you ever wagered so much as a dollar?

link to original post



These aren't 'notes', they are a bet by bet transcription of what happened in the casino the day I played. They're called roulette cards and they are supplied to you by the casino. They are dated, they're filled out in my handwriting, they show the numbers that appeared, and how many bets I got right and how many I got wrong. These have the stink of authenticity all over them and would be admissible in court as evidence. If it's thought I drove an hour and 15 minutes to a casino and sat there for an hour to 90 minutes twice a week for 2 years and wagered nothing then that opinion has the stink of unicorn manure all over it. I could present a 3-hour video of me playing with witnesses claiming it was me and you would still say, how do we know it's not somebody who looks like him. There is absolutely nothing that will ever convince you because you don't want to be convinced, so you will throw stones at every bit of evidence that's presented. These roulette cards are real, recorded by me of games I actually played and bet money in, like it or lump it, those are the facts.


link to original post

You said somewhere that you got heat for writing down toat boards and you weren't even playing.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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