Sports betting chatter

I hope everyone is watching todays professional football games. The Las Vegas game is on as I type this. I like the idea of being able to go for a 3 point conversion after a touchdown. It should give some teams a better chance to make a comeback and keep them more interesting.

Quote: SOOPOO

A whole slew of various + EV bets on Kansas /Baylor game. In summary, the only way I can lose is if Kansas wins by exactly 4.
I win the most if they win by exactly 5. All other results I win a small amount.

Today Alabama/Arizona/Providence parlay at + odds. Should be slight - odds. I hedged a small bit on Villanova +3.5 over Providence. So rooting for pProvidence 70, Villanova 69.
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That was quite a second half by Kansas. Losing by 13 and then winning by 17. A dominant performance.

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

A whole slew of various + EV bets on Kansas /Baylor game. In summary, the only way I can lose is if Kansas wins by exactly 4.
I win the most if they win by exactly 5. All other results I win a small amount.

Today Alabama/Arizona/Providence parlay at + odds. Should be slight - odds. I hedged a small bit on Villanova +3.5 over Providence. So rooting for pProvidence 70, Villanova 69.
link to original post

That was quite a second half by Kansas. Losing by 13 and then winning by 17. A dominant performance.
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Yeah. I won a little. The other parlay hit easily. I think Alabama had a 50 point lead when I first checked. The other two were double digit wins.

I have a 5 team parlay (with profit boost) alive needing my Sabres to win tonight (slight faves).

Quote: SOOPOO

A whole slew of various + EV bets on Kansas /Baylor game. In summary, the only way I can lose is if Kansas wins by exactly 4.
I win the most if they win by exactly 5. All other results I win a small amount.

I want to thank you
you've really educated me
I've always been a straight up spread or total bettor - never really even looked at props

I had no idea that prop bets could be constructed this way so that a person is almost sure to win something

if you were betting big and you made only + EV bets do you think they would rain on your parade - limit you____?_______thanks - I'm thinking the answer is almost surely YES

I think I see what the books are doing now

I think these kinds of bets are teasers

they will allow bettors to pad their accounts with them but only if these bettors are not consistent long term winners and winning fairly big - correct______?


.

I've got some questions for you, Soopoo, and I'm honestly just curious

you posted I believe, 5 figures total to the positive with your online sports betting, congratulations!

how many W2g's did you get?

I assume though your experience overall, after taxes, was still +EV. How close a call is it?

do you attribute your success to playing off one online site against another?

Quote: odiousgambit

I've got some questions for you, Soopoo, and I'm honestly just curious

you posted I believe, 5 figures total to the positive with your online sports betting, congratulations!

how many W2g's did you get?

I assume though your experience overall, after taxes, was still +EV. How close a call is it?

do you attribute your success to playing off one online site against another?
link to original post

No W2 G’s. None of my bets are that large (after the initial ‘risk free’ bets). And none are at that extreme odds.

As far as taxes, all they do is reduce how much I make. I’ll give a hypothetical. If I made $30k and have to pay 20% in taxes on that it just means I cleared $24k. If I made $15k I would have cleared $12k.

Answering the previous post…. I think I am being throttled back. I’m certainly getting either fewer or smaller +EV opportunities.

As far as ‘playing one side against the other’, I do do that sometimes. But understand, real APs like Axel and Wiz, would frown upon that! I’ll give a simple example. I had an opportunity to pick ‘team to score first in the super bowl’ boosted to +150. So my $10 bet will pay out a total of $25. The +EV was $5.
But I could bet on another site at the prevailing rate (which for even bets is -110) on the other team. So I could bet $13 to win $12 (rounded) for a payout of $25. So if you notice I win $2 NO MATTER WHAT. But Wiz and Axel will chastise me for turning $5 in EV into $2. I do believe that it is important that I make the negative EV hedge bets for longevity. The site I make the -EV bet just sees it as a typical loser bet.

I'm not big into sportsbetting. When it got made legal in my state back in September of last year I made $250 off my free bets for signing up on Draft Kings and that was about it. With baseball season starting up I did see that my team, the KC Royals are currently at +20,000 to win the World Series outright. I know it is a long shot and very unlikely but I felt like throwing $10 on them for no reason other than I hope they figure something Cinderella-esque out and have an amazing season. That said I really don't expect them to hit 70 wins on the season.

Quote: SOOPOO

No W2 G’s.

Astonishing. From what I can glean, there's no way in VA that kind of success would not get W2s ... assuming the terms and conditions I read mean something. Currently, I am bombarded with 'sticky' messaging urging me to be informed about possible W2s [that I didn't get]. It seems to be that only this time of year would you get them, and the terms and cond. say it is a cumulative $600

Quote:

None of my bets are that large (after the initial ‘risk free’ bets). And none are at that extreme odds.

Being a cumulative thing in VA, that wouldn't matter

As far as taxes, all they do is reduce how much I make. I’ll give a hypothetical. If I made $30k and have to pay 20% in taxes on that it just means I cleared $24k. If I made $15k I would have cleared $12k.

I'm impressed that you pay your taxes on this, considering the below

Quote:

Answering the previous post…. I think I am being throttled back. I’m certainly getting either fewer or smaller +EV opportunities.

I am getting no more of the misnamed 'free bets' type offers, only odds-boost offers on parlay bets. I figure the boost gets it something close to a fair bet, with high variance

Quote:

As far as ‘playing one side against the other’, I do do that sometimes. But understand, real APs like Axel and Wiz, would frown upon that! I’ll give a simple example. I had an opportunity to pick ‘team to score first in the super bowl’ boosted to +150. So my $10 bet will pay out a total of $25. The +EV was $5.
But I could bet on another site at the prevailing rate (which for even bets is -110) on the other team. So I could bet $13 to win $12 (rounded) for a payout of $25. So if you notice I win $2 NO MATTER WHAT. But Wiz and Axel will chastise me for turning $5 in EV into $2. I do believe that it is important that I make the negative EV hedge bets for longevity. The site I make the -EV bet just sees it as a typical loser bet.

If you are still +EV I think you are incorrect to say you'd get disapproval. I would call that arbitrage, not hedging.
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I am not endorsing this business - I am just stating what I know about it - it is new and there are probably things I don't know about it -


a type of book called a betting exchange has been legalized in New Jersey - it is called Prophet Sports Betting Exchange
it is similar to parimutuel wagering
players bet against each other - it's called peer to peer wagering - the house takes only 2% from the winning bets - much less than the 10% from the traditional books
this means the vig is only about 1% - lower than the lowest HA in any casino game

this may be the wave of the future - I'm not sure about that - but there is no reason to limit any player since he's betting directly against other players

the downside is they must match wagers within the same state - not all over the country - so, in the beginning there may not be a great deal of liquidity and a player may not be able to get the bets he wants

very, very interesting - to me anyway




https://prophetbettingexchange.com/education/



.

Quote: lilredrooster

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I am not endorsing this business - I am just stating what I know about it - it is new and there are probably things I don't know about it -


a type of book called a betting exchange has been legalized in New Jersey - it is called Prophet Sports Betting Exchange
it is similar to parimutuel wagering
players bet against each other - it's called peer to peer wagering - the house takes only 2% from the winning bets - much less than the 10% from the traditional books
this means the vig is only about 1% - lower than the lowest HA in any casino game

this may be the wave of the future - I'm not sure about that - but there is no reason to limit any player since he's betting directly against other players

the downside is they must match wagers within the same state - not all over the country - so, in the beginning there may not be a great deal of liquidity and a player may not be able to get the bets he wants

very, very interesting - to me anyway

Betting exchanges are a great concept once there are enough patrons involved. Unfortunately they are not good in the beginning as many people will get frustrated as no one will take their bet.