2023 WoV Picks Game DISCUSSION Thread
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:24:23 AM
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Mission picks received
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:24:18 AM
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Greetings!
The Week 13 Picks are as Follows:
Mission146:
Dolphins OVER 49.5
Lions OVER 47
Texans OVER 47.5
Jets UNDER 34
Patriots +5.5
Wizard:
Cardinals +5.5
Broncos +3
Saints +4-CONFIDENCE
Patriots +5.5
Commanders +9.5
JohnnyQ:
Cardinals +5.5
Falcons -2
Broncos +3
Lions -4
Colts -1
Gordonm888:
Lions -4
Titans 1
Dolphins -9.5 Confidence
Panthers 5
Bengals 8.5
jml24:
Broncos
Titans 1
Buccaneers -5
Eagles 3-Confidence
Chiefs -6
miplet:
Steelers -5.5
Commanders 9.5
Panthers 5-confidence
Rams -3.5
Jaguars -8.5
IndyJeffrey:
Texans -3
Saints 4
Titans 1 - CONFIDENCE
Buccaneers -5
Chiefs -6
scolist:
Saints 4
49ers -3
Packers 6
Bengals 8.5
Jets 2 confidence
Genwyzgy:
Steelers Under 41
Saints 4
Lions Over 47
Chargers -5.5 Confidence
Rams Under 40.5
Asswhoopermcdaddy:
Colts -1 Confidence
Broncos 3
Browns 3.5
Commanders 9.5
Lions -4
JStephe8:
Falcons -2
Chiefs -6
49ers Under 48
Lions -4
Patriots Under 40
Sparty10k:
Broncos under 47.5
Browns under 40.5
49ers over 48
Chiefs -6
Jaguars -8.5
Vegasbrent:
Patriots +5.5
Steelers -5.5-confidence
Broncos +3
Eagles +3
Buccaneers -5
Joeman:
Dolphins -9.5
Packers +6
Rams UNDER 40.5 -confidence
Eagles UNDER 48
Jets UNDER 34
SOOPOO:
Cardinals+5.5 confidence
Chargers-5.5
Dolphins-9.5
LOSS
LOSS
PlayYourCardsRight:
Steelers -5.5
Falcons -2 CONFIDENCE
Lions -4
Colts -1
Eagles 3
Johnzimbo:
49ers -3 confidence
Titans +1
Texans -3
Patriots +5.5
Steelers over 41
Odiousgambit:
Cardinals Under 41
Saints 4
Dolphins Under 49.5
Browns 3.5
Steelers -5.5
nunbeater:
49ers OVER 48 -Confidence
Chiefs -6
Dolphins OVER 49.5
Eagles +3
Lions -4
DJChaps:
TEXANS -3
CHARGERS -5.5
PHINS -9.5
CHIEFS -6 Confidence
LIONS -4
ncfatcat:
Falcons -2
Panthers +5
Bronco’s U 47.5 Confidence
Eagles +3
Chiefs -6
AvianRandy:
Steelers -5.5
Texans -3 CONFIDENCE
Lions -4
Buccaneers -5
49ers -3
unJon:
Falcons UNDER 34 - confidence
Panthers +5
Rams -3.5
Patriots UNDER 40
Eagles UNDER 48
FourFiveFace:
Cardinals +5.5
Commanders +9.5
Panthers +5
Packers +6
Bengals +8.5-Confidence
NOTE: I have no idea why, but SOOPOO's Picks only consisted of three picks, thereby resulting in two automatic losses. I have sent him a PM letting him know he can opt to use his Skip Week instead, if he hasn't already, and lets me know by 13:00.
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: $20 Available
The Week 13 Picks are as Follows:
Mission146:
Dolphins OVER 49.5
Lions OVER 47
Texans OVER 47.5
Jets UNDER 34
Patriots +5.5
Wizard:
Cardinals +5.5
Broncos +3
Saints +4-CONFIDENCE
Patriots +5.5
Commanders +9.5
JohnnyQ:
Cardinals +5.5
Falcons -2
Broncos +3
Lions -4
Colts -1
Gordonm888:
Lions -4
Titans 1
Dolphins -9.5 Confidence
Panthers 5
Bengals 8.5
jml24:
Broncos
Titans 1
Buccaneers -5
Eagles 3-Confidence
Chiefs -6
miplet:
Steelers -5.5
Commanders 9.5
Panthers 5-confidence
Rams -3.5
Jaguars -8.5
IndyJeffrey:
Texans -3
Saints 4
Titans 1 - CONFIDENCE
Buccaneers -5
Chiefs -6
scolist:
Saints 4
49ers -3
Packers 6
Bengals 8.5
Jets 2 confidence
Genwyzgy:
Steelers Under 41
Saints 4
Lions Over 47
Chargers -5.5 Confidence
Rams Under 40.5
Asswhoopermcdaddy:
Colts -1 Confidence
Broncos 3
Browns 3.5
Commanders 9.5
Lions -4
JStephe8:
Falcons -2
Chiefs -6
49ers Under 48
Lions -4
Patriots Under 40
Sparty10k:
Broncos under 47.5
Browns under 40.5
49ers over 48
Chiefs -6
Jaguars -8.5
Vegasbrent:
Patriots +5.5
Steelers -5.5-confidence
Broncos +3
Eagles +3
Buccaneers -5
Joeman:
Dolphins -9.5
Packers +6
Rams UNDER 40.5 -confidence
Eagles UNDER 48
Jets UNDER 34
SOOPOO:
Cardinals+5.5 confidence
Chargers-5.5
Dolphins-9.5
LOSS
LOSS
PlayYourCardsRight:
Steelers -5.5
Falcons -2 CONFIDENCE
Lions -4
Colts -1
Eagles 3
Johnzimbo:
49ers -3 confidence
Titans +1
Texans -3
Patriots +5.5
Steelers over 41
Odiousgambit:
Cardinals Under 41
Saints 4
Dolphins Under 49.5
Browns 3.5
Steelers -5.5
nunbeater:
49ers OVER 48 -Confidence
Chiefs -6
Dolphins OVER 49.5
Eagles +3
Lions -4
DJChaps:
TEXANS -3
CHARGERS -5.5
PHINS -9.5
CHIEFS -6 Confidence
LIONS -4
ncfatcat:
Falcons -2
Panthers +5
Bronco’s U 47.5 Confidence
Eagles +3
Chiefs -6
AvianRandy:
Steelers -5.5
Texans -3 CONFIDENCE
Lions -4
Buccaneers -5
49ers -3
unJon:
Falcons UNDER 34 - confidence
Panthers +5
Rams -3.5
Patriots UNDER 40
Eagles UNDER 48
FourFiveFace:
Cardinals +5.5
Commanders +9.5
Panthers +5
Packers +6
Bengals +8.5-Confidence
NOTE: I have no idea why, but SOOPOO's Picks only consisted of three picks, thereby resulting in two automatic losses. I have sent him a PM letting him know he can opt to use his Skip Week instead, if he hasn't already, and lets me know by 13:00.
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: $20 Available
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:39:06 AM
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Here is the summary. Chiefs and Lions have the most picks.
| Game | Away | Home | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals 5.5 @ Steelers -5.5 O/U 41 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| Falcons -2 @ Jets 2 O/U 34 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Broncos 3 @ Texans -3 O/U 47.5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| Lions -4 @ Saints 4 O/U 47 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Colts -1 @ Titans 1 O/U 42.5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chargers -5.5 @ Patriots 5.5 O/U 40 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Dolphins -9.5 @ Commanders 9.5 O/U 49.5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Panthers 5 @ Buccaneers -5 O/U 37 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Browns 3.5 @ Rams -3.5 O/U 40.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 49Ers -3 @ Eagles 3 O/U 48 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Chiefs -6 @ Packers 6 O/U 42.5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Bengals 8.5 @ Jaguars -8.5 O/U 38.5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:50:49 AM
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I don't remember another week where every team has 2 or more picks against the spread.
The contest participants will have a minimum of 51 non-winning picks (ignoring the chance for ties, that would a minimum of 51 losing picks.) Given there are only 12 games (other than Thursday night) this week, that is a higher-than usual number. Basically what I'm saying is the forum participant's picks were split close to evenly on most games.
The contest participants will have a minimum of 51 non-winning picks (ignoring the chance for ties, that would a minimum of 51 losing picks.) Given there are only 12 games (other than Thursday night) this week, that is a higher-than usual number. Basically what I'm saying is the forum participant's picks were split close to evenly on most games.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:19:00 AM
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I’m disqualified. Not sure how but only 3 of my picks went through. I’ll still try for perfection nexts few weeks.
I wasn’t sucking enough nor mediocre enough anyway….
I wasn’t sucking enough nor mediocre enough anyway….
December 4th, 2023 at 9:38:29 AM
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I would be 5-0 at this point if it weren't for my losing pick of the Titans+1. At the end of regulation the Titans were tied (despite the loss of Derrick Henry to injury during the game!) So, I always feel that this kind of pick was righteous in the sense that with a spread of +1 my team was ahead at the end of regulation.
What is the ΔEV of a +1 spread? (versus a pick-em spread)
The margin of victory in NFL games is reported to be 1 point with a frequency of 3.45%; I imagine that in games that are expected to be close - with a spread of 4 points or less that the frequency of a one-point winning margin is more like 4.0%. Since that calculation is for either team winning by a margin of one point, I think that the frequency with which a spread of +1 converts an on-the-field loss into a tieing wager is about 2%.
Since NFL overtime rule changes in 2017 there have been 7 ties, so ties have occurred with a frequency of roughly 0.2%. So I conclude that a spread of +1 would an implied ΔEV of approximately 2.2% where "implied ΔEV" refers to the implication that the game was expected to be close because the teams were perceived to be evenly matched. If we ignore that assumption, the equity of a spread of +1 would be closer to 1.95%
What is the ΔEV of a +1 spread? (versus a pick-em spread)
The margin of victory in NFL games is reported to be 1 point with a frequency of 3.45%; I imagine that in games that are expected to be close - with a spread of 4 points or less that the frequency of a one-point winning margin is more like 4.0%. Since that calculation is for either team winning by a margin of one point, I think that the frequency with which a spread of +1 converts an on-the-field loss into a tieing wager is about 2%.
Since NFL overtime rule changes in 2017 there have been 7 ties, so ties have occurred with a frequency of roughly 0.2%. So I conclude that a spread of +1 would an implied ΔEV of approximately 2.2% where "implied ΔEV" refers to the implication that the game was expected to be close because the teams were perceived to be evenly matched. If we ignore that assumption, the equity of a spread of +1 would be closer to 1.95%
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:23:16 PM
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Ok, with the game in OT, barring a FG and then pick 6 by the Jags, we can mark the week in the books. No perfection bonus, though SOOPOO managed to go 4-0 with just 3 picks. I continue my dominance at the top of the charts, and Mission looks locked into the you suck prize despite over performing. Genwyzgy looking perfectly average with just a few weeks to go.
| Player | Week 13 Record | Win% |
|---|---|---|
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 3-3 | 50% |
| avianrandy: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| djchaps: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| fourfiveface: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| genwyzgy: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| gordonm888: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| indyjeffrey: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| jml24: | 0-6 | 0% |
| joeman: | 3-3 | 50% |
| johnnyq: | 4-1 | 80% |
| johnzimbo: | 3-3 | 50% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 3-2 | 60% |
| miplet: | 3-3 | 50% |
| mission146: | 3-2 | 60% |
| ncfatcat: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| nunbeater: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| odiousgambit: | 1-4 | 20% |
| playyourcardsright: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| rainman: | 0-0 | 0% |
| scolist: | 3-3 | 50% |
| soopoo: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| sparty10k: | 2-3 | 40% |
| unjon: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| vegasbrent: | 0-6 | 0% |
| wizard: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| Player | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| unjon: | 50-27 | 64.9% |
| playyourcardsright: | 47-27 | 63.5% |
| djchaps: | 44-27 | 62% |
| ncfatcat: | 39-29 | 57.4% |
| miplet: | 39-32 | 54.9% |
| johnzimbo: | 40-35 | 53.3% |
| joeman: | 40-36 | 52.6% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 34-32 | 51.5% |
| odiousgambit: | 34-33 | 50.7% |
| genwyzgy: | 37-37 | 50% |
| gordonm888: | 35-37 | 48.6% |
| sparty10k: | 30-33 | 47.6% |
| nunbeater: | 36-40 | 47.4% |
| wizard: | 34-40 | 45.9% |
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 34-41 | 45.3% |
| rainman: | 29-35 | 45.3% |
| soopoo: | 32-39 | 45.1% |
| fourfiveface: | 34-42 | 44.7% |
| scolist: | 30-38 | 44.1% |
| jml24: | 30-39 | 43.5% |
| vegasbrent: | 32-42 | 43.2% |
| indyjeffrey: | 31-44 | 41.3% |
| johnnyq: | 28-40 | 41.2% |
| avianrandy: | 28-43 | 39.4% |
| mission146: | 22-43 | 33.8% |
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 5th, 2023 at 12:12:36 AM
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Finally, breathing room.
My goal for a while has been to be a full week behind. It takes a lot of pressure off in trying to make my losing Picks.
I’m honestly a little embarrassed.
First of all, I’ve only watched maybe ten minutes of actual games because I can’t be made to care anymore (more on that in two upcoming articles).
Secondly, after going 3-9 the first two weeks, I immediately gave up on myself and decided it would be better just to deliberately try to lose. Granted, my Picks probably wouldn’t have been the same (despite logic saying it’s just inverse results, so why wouldn’t they be?) if I was trying to win as I’ve spent the last few weeks (with shaken confidence) just taking big OVER numbers (hoping to lose). Another reason my Picks wouldn’t be the same is because I’d be making more Confidence Picks, but since I’m where I want to be (alone in last place), taking additional Variance doesn’t make sense right now.
But, let’s say all had been equal. I’m 3-9 going into Week 3, so instead of being 19-34 since, I’m instead 34-19. My overall record is 37-28, which puts me in fifth place at .569 needing only a few decent weeks (and maybe help at the top) to put me in striking distance of 1st-3rd.
But, what can I say? So far, I just suck, as does my path of least resistance philosophy.
My goal for a while has been to be a full week behind. It takes a lot of pressure off in trying to make my losing Picks.
I’m honestly a little embarrassed.
First of all, I’ve only watched maybe ten minutes of actual games because I can’t be made to care anymore (more on that in two upcoming articles).
Secondly, after going 3-9 the first two weeks, I immediately gave up on myself and decided it would be better just to deliberately try to lose. Granted, my Picks probably wouldn’t have been the same (despite logic saying it’s just inverse results, so why wouldn’t they be?) if I was trying to win as I’ve spent the last few weeks (with shaken confidence) just taking big OVER numbers (hoping to lose). Another reason my Picks wouldn’t be the same is because I’d be making more Confidence Picks, but since I’m where I want to be (alone in last place), taking additional Variance doesn’t make sense right now.
But, let’s say all had been equal. I’m 3-9 going into Week 3, so instead of being 19-34 since, I’m instead 34-19. My overall record is 37-28, which puts me in fifth place at .569 needing only a few decent weeks (and maybe help at the top) to put me in striking distance of 1st-3rd.
But, what can I say? So far, I just suck, as does my path of least resistance philosophy.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 5th, 2023 at 6:31:47 AM
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I sounds like Soopoo has found his new winning strategy. Just make three picks a week and get four points. A very unorthodox method but it seems to work for him.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
December 5th, 2023 at 6:55:23 AM
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Quote: DRichI sounds like Soopoo has found his new winning strategy. Just make three picks a week and get four points. A very unorthodox method but it seems to work for him.
link to original post
Like many things in life, you can pull it off if you have enough confidence.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 5th, 2023 at 7:38:57 AM
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I have been 10-1 in the last two weeks to resurrect my self-esteem and raise my record to 35-37.
It's gonna be a bad look if unjon wins first place money and Mission wins the You Suck award and I win the Mr. Average award. That's quite the way to run a contest.
It's gonna be a bad look if unjon wins first place money and Mission wins the You Suck award and I win the Mr. Average award. That's quite the way to run a contest.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 5th, 2023 at 8:16:40 AM
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It's pretty impressive that 2 players went 0 - 6 in the same week. Granted, I'm not happy at all about being one of the two, but it is unusual, I think.
It's not a sin if you don't win, but it's a tragedy if you don't try.
Be happy and have fun!
December 5th, 2023 at 8:42:25 AM
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Agreed. Maybe we need to have a weekly "imperfection bonus" for going 0-6. I would have won it in Week 4! :\Quote: VegasbrentIt's pretty impressive that 2 players went 0 - 6 in the same week. Granted, I'm not happy at all about being one of the two, but it is unusual, I think.
link to original post
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
December 5th, 2023 at 9:25:24 AM
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Quote: JoemanAgreed. Maybe we need to have a weekly "imperfection bonus" for going 0-6. I would have won it in Week 4! :\Quote: VegasbrentIt's pretty impressive that 2 players went 0 - 6 in the same week. Granted, I'm not happy at all about being one of the two, but it is unusual, I think.
link to original post
link to original post
Maybe I’ll fund a side prize for anyone with a current winning record that has an 0-6 week. 🤔
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 5th, 2023 at 10:40:20 AM
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I don't think I have picked one Steelers or Patriots game correctly in a long time. Now they play each other.
I better skip this one :)
I better skip this one :)
December 5th, 2023 at 11:27:07 AM
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Quote: JohnzimboI don't think I have picked one Steelers or Patriots game correctly in a long time. Now they play each other.
I better skip this one :)
link to original post
Thankfully it’s the Thursday game so no choice but to skip. I haven’t seen a total this low for an nfl game in a long time.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 5th, 2023 at 12:52:40 PM
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Patriots truly suck. Losing 6-0 with a QB whose name is a comic book sound effect.
Here's some teams that have been a bit hard to predict:
Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
KC Chiefs
Here's some teams that have been a bit hard to predict:
Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
KC Chiefs
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 5th, 2023 at 1:44:58 PM
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Quote: gordonm888Patriots truly suck. Losing 6-0 with a QB whose name is a comic book sound effect.
Here's some teams that have been a bit hard to predict:
Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
KC Chiefs
link to original post
Well there would be something that would be interesting to calculate. The variance of a team’s outcome relative to the Vegas line. Which teams to Vegas find hardest to predict.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 5th, 2023 at 1:58:20 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: gordonm888Patriots truly suck. Losing 6-0 with a QB whose name is a comic book sound effect.
Here's some teams that have been a bit hard to predict:
Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
KC Chiefs
link to original post
Well there would be something that would be interesting to calculate. The variance of a team’s outcome relative to the Vegas line. Which teams to Vegas find hardest to predict.
link to original post
I suppose I wouldn't necessarily have to follow the NFL as it would be an end of the season activity.
It would also be interesting to keep historical track of. More than that, there's probably sufficient historical line data that I could go back four seasons (plus this season) for the first time.
I'm not in love with the idea, but am leaning towards yes. Please remind me at the end of the season and I will probably do it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 6th, 2023 at 5:17:31 AM
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Quote: Mission146Quote: unJonQuote: gordonm888Patriots truly suck. Losing 6-0 with a QB whose name is a comic book sound effect.
Here's some teams that have been a bit hard to predict:
Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
KC Chiefs
link to original post
Well there would be something that would be interesting to calculate. The variance of a team’s outcome relative to the Vegas line. Which teams to Vegas find hardest to predict.
link to original post
I suppose I wouldn't necessarily have to follow the NFL as it would be an end of the season activity.
It would also be interesting to keep historical track of. More than that, there's probably sufficient historical line data that I could go back four seasons (plus this season) for the first time.
I'm not in love with the idea, but am leaning towards yes. Please remind me at the end of the season and I will probably do it.
link to original post
I think its a seasonal thing, related to
- players being injured and backups being either terrible or exceeding expectations
- players playing but not being 100% physically,
- maybe clubhouse issues or lapses in motivation
- coaches coming up with schemes that exploit unrecognized weaknesses in an opponent
Denver loses to Miami 70-20 and then loses to the Chiefs 19-8. Why, when they played the Chiefs again 17 days later did they defeat them 24-9? And why, in their next game do they defeat the Bills in Buffalo 24-22?
I'm not claiming that Denver is unpredictable year in and year out, just that they've experienced some wild swings this year. The coaches and players change so fast, I doubt it is a trait that recurs year after year.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 6th, 2023 at 7:48:23 AM
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Quote: gordonm888Quote: Mission146Quote: unJonQuote: gordonm888Patriots truly suck. Losing 6-0 with a QB whose name is a comic book sound effect.
Here's some teams that have been a bit hard to predict:
Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
KC Chiefs
link to original post
Well there would be something that would be interesting to calculate. The variance of a team’s outcome relative to the Vegas line. Which teams to Vegas find hardest to predict.
link to original post
I suppose I wouldn't necessarily have to follow the NFL as it would be an end of the season activity.
It would also be interesting to keep historical track of. More than that, there's probably sufficient historical line data that I could go back four seasons (plus this season) for the first time.
I'm not in love with the idea, but am leaning towards yes. Please remind me at the end of the season and I will probably do it.
link to original post
I think its a seasonal thing, related to
- players being injured and backups being either terrible or exceeding expectations
- players playing but not being 100% physically,
- maybe clubhouse issues or lapses in motivation
- coaches coming up with schemes that exploit unrecognized weaknesses in an opponent
Denver loses to Miami 70-20 and then loses to the Chiefs 19-8. Why, when they played the Chiefs again 17 days later did they defeat them 24-9? And why, in their next game do they defeat the Bills in Buffalo 24-22?
I'm not claiming that Denver is unpredictable year in and year out, just that they've experienced some wild swings this year. The coaches and players change so fast, I doubt it is a trait that recurs year after year.
link to original post
I suspect that you're correct, but if I actually do the analysis, there will be no further need to suspect anything.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 6th, 2023 at 3:11:39 PM
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Quote: gordonm888Denver loses to Miami 70-20 and then loses to the Chiefs 19-8. Why, when they played the Chiefs again 17 days later did they defeat them 24-9? And why, in their next game do they defeat the Bills in Buffalo 24-22?
The 70 point game made me wonder…..
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
December 8th, 2023 at 7:16:40 AM
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Greetings!
The Week 14 Lines are as follows:
Buccaneers 1.5 @ Falcons -1.5 O/U 41
Rams 7.5 @ Ravens -7.5 O/U 40
Panthers 5 @ Saints -5 O/U 37.5
Lions -3.5 @ Bears 3.5 O/U 43
Colts 1.5 @ Bengals -1.5 O/U 44.5
Jaguars 3 @ Browns -3 O/U 32.5
Texans -3.5 @ Jets 3.5 O/U 33.5
Vikings -3 @ Raiders 3 O/U 40
Seahawks 11 @ 49ers -11 O/U 47
Bills 1.5 @ Chiefs -1.5 O/U 48.5
Broncos 2.5 @ Chargers -2.5 O/U 44
Eagles 3.5 @ Cowboys -3.5 O/U 52
Packers -6.5 @ Giants 6.5 O/U 36.5
Titans 13 @ Dolphins -13 O/U 46.5
If you are looking to compare lines for the purposes of making Picks, then going to Miplet's page:
https://miplet.net/newnfl/
Will give you the most up-to-date lines that you can compare to the ones posted below.
Thank you again to Miplet!
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: $30 Available
I would also like to thank Gordonm888 and Unjon, once again, for working together on the grading and standings. Grading the Picks is honestly something like 90% of the time spend otherwise.
The Week 14 Lines are as follows:
Buccaneers 1.5 @ Falcons -1.5 O/U 41
Rams 7.5 @ Ravens -7.5 O/U 40
Panthers 5 @ Saints -5 O/U 37.5
Lions -3.5 @ Bears 3.5 O/U 43
Colts 1.5 @ Bengals -1.5 O/U 44.5
Jaguars 3 @ Browns -3 O/U 32.5
Texans -3.5 @ Jets 3.5 O/U 33.5
Vikings -3 @ Raiders 3 O/U 40
Seahawks 11 @ 49ers -11 O/U 47
Bills 1.5 @ Chiefs -1.5 O/U 48.5
Broncos 2.5 @ Chargers -2.5 O/U 44
Eagles 3.5 @ Cowboys -3.5 O/U 52
Packers -6.5 @ Giants 6.5 O/U 36.5
Titans 13 @ Dolphins -13 O/U 46.5
If you are looking to compare lines for the purposes of making Picks, then going to Miplet's page:
https://miplet.net/newnfl/
Will give you the most up-to-date lines that you can compare to the ones posted below.
Thank you again to Miplet!
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: $30 Available
I would also like to thank Gordonm888 and Unjon, once again, for working together on the grading and standings. Grading the Picks is honestly something like 90% of the time spend otherwise.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 8th, 2023 at 6:05:25 PM
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woah lol
December 10th, 2023 at 12:58:55 AM
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Line change link even later than last time. https://miplet.net/newnfl/diff.php?week=14&day=8&month=12&year=2023&hour=6
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
December 10th, 2023 at 9:13:21 AM
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Greetings!
The Week 14 Picks are as follows:
Mission146:
Eagles OVER 52
Browns UNDER 32.5
Jets +3.5
Chargers -2.5
Buccaneers OVER 41
Wizard:
Rams +7.5
Panthers +5
Bears +3.5-CONFIDENCE
Jaguars +3
Jets +3.5
NCFatCat:
Panthers +5
Panthers U 37.5
Texans -3.5
Titans +13
Eagles +3.5
scolist:
Bears 3.5 Confidence
Bengals -1.5
Bills 1.5
Panthers 5
Titans 13
JStephe8WVU:
Browns Under 32.5
Texans -3.5
Dolphins -13.5
Falcons Over 41
Lions -3.5
miplet:
Rams 7.5
Bears 3.5
Bengals -1.5
Jaguars 3
Eagles 3.5-confidence
Asswhoopermcdaddy:
Ravens -7.5
Lions -3.5
Lions Over 43 Confidence
Texans -3.5
49ers -11
jml24:
Rams 7.5
Bears 3.5
Jets 3.5
Bills 1.5
Eagles 3.5-Confidence
unJon:
Rams +7.5
Lions -3.5
Lions OVER 43
Browns OVER 32.5 - confidence
49ers -11
Sparty10k:
Bears +3.5 confidence
Bengals -1.5
Browns -3
Broncos +2.5
Dolphins-13
GenWyzgy:
Bears 3.5
Bengals -1.5 Confidence
Texans -3.5
Vikings -3
Seahawks Under 47
Joeman:
Saints -5
Lions -3.5 -confidence
Texans -3.5
Broncos +2.5
Eagles +3.5
Johnzimbo:
Cowboys -3.5 confidence
Cowboys over 52
Ravens -7.5
49ers -11
Giants +6.5
AvianRandy:
Panthers +5
Browns -3
Rams +7.5-CONFIDENCE
Vikings -3
Broncos +2.5
FourFiveFace:
Rams +7.5-Confidence
Panthers +5
Vikings -3
Giants +6.5
Dolphins -13
nunbeater:
Dolphins OVER 46.5 -Confidence
49ers OVER 47
Cowboys UNDER 52
Dolphins -13
Lions -3.5
Gordonm888:
Rams 7.5
Bears 3.5
49ers -11
Packers -6.5
Dolphins -13 Confidence
Odiousgambit:
Saints Under 37.5
Chiefs Over 48.5
Eagles 3.5
Cowboys Under 52
Giants Under 36.5
DJChaps:
Saints -5
Texans -3.5 Confidence
49ers -11
Giants OVER 36.5
Bengals -1.5
IndyJeffrey:
Saints -5
Bengals -1.5
Bengals Over 44.5
Chiefs -1.5
Cowboys -3.5 - CONFIDENCE
PlayYourCardsRight:
Lions -3.5 CONFIDENCE
Colts 1.5
Browns -3
Vikings -3
Packers -6.5
SOOPOO:
Texans -3.5 Confidence
Lions -3.5
Bills +1.5
Eagles +3.5
Giants +6.5
Vegasbrent:
Lions -3.5
Rams +7.5
Eagles +3.5
Titans +13-confidence
Giants +6.5
JohnnyQ:
Buccaneers 1.5
Chiefs -1.5
Bills OVER 48.5
Eagles OVER 52 CONFIDENCE
Dolphins -13
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: $30 Available
The Week 14 Picks are as follows:
Mission146:
Eagles OVER 52
Browns UNDER 32.5
Jets +3.5
Chargers -2.5
Buccaneers OVER 41
Wizard:
Rams +7.5
Panthers +5
Bears +3.5-CONFIDENCE
Jaguars +3
Jets +3.5
NCFatCat:
Panthers +5
Panthers U 37.5
Texans -3.5
Titans +13
Eagles +3.5
scolist:
Bears 3.5 Confidence
Bengals -1.5
Bills 1.5
Panthers 5
Titans 13
JStephe8WVU:
Browns Under 32.5
Texans -3.5
Dolphins -13.5
Falcons Over 41
Lions -3.5
miplet:
Rams 7.5
Bears 3.5
Bengals -1.5
Jaguars 3
Eagles 3.5-confidence
Asswhoopermcdaddy:
Ravens -7.5
Lions -3.5
Lions Over 43 Confidence
Texans -3.5
49ers -11
jml24:
Rams 7.5
Bears 3.5
Jets 3.5
Bills 1.5
Eagles 3.5-Confidence
unJon:
Rams +7.5
Lions -3.5
Lions OVER 43
Browns OVER 32.5 - confidence
49ers -11
Sparty10k:
Bears +3.5 confidence
Bengals -1.5
Browns -3
Broncos +2.5
Dolphins-13
GenWyzgy:
Bears 3.5
Bengals -1.5 Confidence
Texans -3.5
Vikings -3
Seahawks Under 47
Joeman:
Saints -5
Lions -3.5 -confidence
Texans -3.5
Broncos +2.5
Eagles +3.5
Johnzimbo:
Cowboys -3.5 confidence
Cowboys over 52
Ravens -7.5
49ers -11
Giants +6.5
AvianRandy:
Panthers +5
Browns -3
Rams +7.5-CONFIDENCE
Vikings -3
Broncos +2.5
FourFiveFace:
Rams +7.5-Confidence
Panthers +5
Vikings -3
Giants +6.5
Dolphins -13
nunbeater:
Dolphins OVER 46.5 -Confidence
49ers OVER 47
Cowboys UNDER 52
Dolphins -13
Lions -3.5
Gordonm888:
Rams 7.5
Bears 3.5
49ers -11
Packers -6.5
Dolphins -13 Confidence
Odiousgambit:
Saints Under 37.5
Chiefs Over 48.5
Eagles 3.5
Cowboys Under 52
Giants Under 36.5
DJChaps:
Saints -5
Texans -3.5 Confidence
49ers -11
Giants OVER 36.5
Bengals -1.5
IndyJeffrey:
Saints -5
Bengals -1.5
Bengals Over 44.5
Chiefs -1.5
Cowboys -3.5 - CONFIDENCE
PlayYourCardsRight:
Lions -3.5 CONFIDENCE
Colts 1.5
Browns -3
Vikings -3
Packers -6.5
SOOPOO:
Texans -3.5 Confidence
Lions -3.5
Bills +1.5
Eagles +3.5
Giants +6.5
Vegasbrent:
Lions -3.5
Rams +7.5
Eagles +3.5
Titans +13-confidence
Giants +6.5
JohnnyQ:
Buccaneers 1.5
Chiefs -1.5
Bills OVER 48.5
Eagles OVER 52 CONFIDENCE
Dolphins -13
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: $30 Available
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 10th, 2023 at 9:51:45 AM
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Summary of Week 14 picks
Lots of love for the Rams, Texans and Eagles. But WOW!!!! look at the Lions/Bears game with 10 picks ATS for each of the two teams. The outcome of that game may stimulate some changes in the aggregate rankings.
| Game | Away | Home | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers 1.5 @ Falcons -1.5 O/U 41 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Rams 7.5 @ Ravens -7.5 O/U 40 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Panthers 5 @ Saints -5 O/U 37.5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Lions -3.5 @ Bears 3.5 O/U 43 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| Colts 1.5 @ Bengals -1.5 O/U 44.5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaguars 3 @ Browns -3 O/U 32.5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Texans -3.5 @ Jets 3.5 O/U 33.5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Vikings -3 @ Raiders 3 O/U 40 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Seahawks 11 @ 49Ers -11 O/U 47 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Bills 1.5 @ Chiefs -1.5 O/U 48.5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Broncos 2.5 @ Chargers -2.5 O/U 44 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eagles 3.5 @ Cowboys -3.5 O/U 52 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Packers -6.5 @ Giants 6.5 O/U 36.5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Titans 13 @ Dolphins -13 O/U 46.5 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
Lots of love for the Rams, Texans and Eagles. But WOW!!!! look at the Lions/Bears game with 10 picks ATS for each of the two teams. The outcome of that game may stimulate some changes in the aggregate rankings.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 10th, 2023 at 5:10:53 PM
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After the Sunday afternoon games there are 3 players who still have a chance to achieve a 6-0 Perfect Week
jml24: 4-0; needs to win 'Eagles 3.5'
sparty10k: 5-0; needs to win 'Dolphins -13'
Gordonm888 (that's me!) 3-0; needs to win both 'Dolphins -13' and 'Packers-6.5'
Here are the Week 14 records after Sunday afternoon games are complete:
jml24: 4-0; needs to win 'Eagles 3.5'
sparty10k: 5-0; needs to win 'Dolphins -13'
Gordonm888 (that's me!) 3-0; needs to win both 'Dolphins -13' and 'Packers-6.5'
Here are the Week 14 records after Sunday afternoon games are complete:
| Wins | Losses | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 1 | 5 | 16.67% |
| avianrandy: | 4 | 1 | 80.00% |
| djchaps: | 3 | 2 | 60.00% |
| fourfiveface: | 2 | 1 | 66.67% |
| genwyzgy: | 4 | 1 | 80.00% |
| gordonm888: | 3 | 0 | 100.00% |
| indyjeffrey: | 3 | 1 | 75.00% |
| jml24: | 4 | 0 | 100.00% |
| joeman: | 2 | 3 | 40.00% |
| johnnyq: | 1 | 2 | 33.33% |
| johnzimbo: | 1 | 1 | 50.00% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 1 | 3 | 25.00% |
| miplet: | 3 | 1 | 75.00% |
| mission146: | 2 | 2 | 50.00% |
| ncfatcat: | 0 | 3 | 0.00% |
| nunbeater: | 0 | 2 | 0.00% |
| odiousgambit: | 1 | 1 | 50.00% |
| playyourcardsright: | 1 | 3 | 25.00% |
| rainman: | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
| scolist: | 4 | 1 | 80.00% |
| soopoo: | 1 | 3 | 25.00% |
| sparty10k: | 5 | 0 | 100.00% |
| unjon: | 4 | 2 | 66.67% |
| vegasbrent: | 1 | 1 | 50.00% |
| wizard: | 4 | 2 | 66.67% |
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 11th, 2023 at 9:01:38 AM
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gordonm888:
Thanks for posting the interim results. I enjoy seeing that.
Thanks for posting the interim results. I enjoy seeing that.
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
December 11th, 2023 at 8:52:41 PM
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Week 14 Rankings
Week 14 Aggregate Results
| Player | Week 14 Record | Win% |
|---|---|---|
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| avianrandy: | 4-1 | 80% |
| djchaps: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| fourfiveface: | 3-2 | 60% |
| genwyzgy: | 4-1 | 80% |
| gordonm888: | 3-3 | 50% |
| indyjeffrey: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| jml24: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| joeman: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| johnnyq: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| johnzimbo: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 1-4 | 20% |
| miplet: | 3-3 | 50% |
| mission146: | 2-3 | 40% |
| ncfatcat: | 1-4 | 20% |
| nunbeater: | 3-3 | 50% |
| odiousgambit: | 2-3 | 40% |
| playyourcardsright: | 1-4 | 20% |
| rainman: | 0-0 | 0% |
| scolist: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| soopoo: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| sparty10k: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| unjon: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| vegasbrent: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| wizard: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
Week 14 Aggregate Results
| Player | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| unjon: | 54-29 | 65.1% |
| djchaps: | 48-29 | 62.3% |
| playyourcardsright: | 48-31 | 60.8% |
| ncfatcat: | 40-33 | 54.8% |
| miplet: | 42-35 | 54.5% |
| johnzimbo: | 44-37 | 54.3% |
| genwyzgy: | 41-38 | 51.9% |
| joeman: | 42-40 | 51.2% |
| sparty10k: | 35-34 | 50.7% |
| odiousgambit: | 36-36 | 50% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 35-36 | 49.3% |
| gordonm888: | 38-40 | 48.7% |
| nunbeater: | 39-43 | 47.6% |
| wizard: | 38-42 | 47.5% |
| scolist: | 35-39 | 47.3% |
| fourfiveface: | 37-44 | 45.7% |
| jml24: | 34-41 | 45.3% |
| rainman: | 29-35 | 45.3% |
| vegasbrent: | 36-44 | 45% |
| indyjeffrey: | 36-45 | 44.4% |
| soopoo: | 34-43 | 44.2% |
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 35-46 | 43.2% |
| avianrandy: | 32-44 | 42.1% |
| johnnyq: | 29-45 | 39.2% |
| mission146: | 24-46 | 34.3% |
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 11th, 2023 at 8:52:41 PM
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Week 14 Results
Week 14 Aggregate Rankings
| Player | Week 14 Record | Win% |
|---|---|---|
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| avianrandy: | 4-1 | 80% |
| djchaps: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| fourfiveface: | 3-2 | 60% |
| genwyzgy: | 4-1 | 80% |
| gordonm888: | 3-3 | 50% |
| indyjeffrey: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| jml24: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| joeman: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| johnnyq: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| johnzimbo: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 1-4 | 20% |
| miplet: | 3-3 | 50% |
| mission146: | 2-3 | 40% |
| ncfatcat: | 1-4 | 20% |
| nunbeater: | 3-3 | 50% |
| odiousgambit: | 2-3 | 40% |
| playyourcardsright: | 1-4 | 20% |
| rainman: | 0-0 | 0% |
| scolist: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| soopoo: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| sparty10k: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| unjon: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| vegasbrent: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| wizard: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
Week 14 Aggregate Rankings
| Player | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| unjon: | 54-29 | 65.1% |
| djchaps: | 48-29 | 62.3% |
| playyourcardsright: | 48-31 | 60.8% |
| ncfatcat: | 40-33 | 54.8% |
| miplet: | 42-35 | 54.5% |
| johnzimbo: | 44-37 | 54.3% |
| genwyzgy: | 41-38 | 51.9% |
| joeman: | 42-40 | 51.2% |
| sparty10k: | 35-34 | 50.7% |
| odiousgambit: | 36-36 | 50% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 35-36 | 49.3% |
| gordonm888: | 38-40 | 48.7% |
| nunbeater: | 39-43 | 47.6% |
| wizard: | 38-42 | 47.5% |
| scolist: | 35-39 | 47.3% |
| fourfiveface: | 37-44 | 45.7% |
| jml24: | 34-41 | 45.3% |
| rainman: | 29-35 | 45.3% |
| vegasbrent: | 36-44 | 45% |
| indyjeffrey: | 36-45 | 44.4% |
| soopoo: | 34-43 | 44.2% |
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 35-46 | 43.2% |
| avianrandy: | 32-44 | 42.1% |
| johnnyq: | 29-45 | 39.2% |
| mission146: | 24-46 | 34.3% |
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 15th, 2023 at 7:55:31 AM
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Greetings!
The Week 15 Lines are as follows:
Vikings 3.5 @ Bengals -3.5 O/U 40.5
Steelers 1.5 @ Colts -1.5 O/U 42.5
Broncos 4.5 @ Lions -4.5 O/U 48
Falcons -3 @ Panthers 3 O/U 33.5
Bears 3 @ Browns -3 O/U 38.5
Buccaneers 3.5 @ Packers -3.5 O/U 42.5
Texans 3 @ Titans -3 O/U 37
Chiefs -8 @ Patriots 8 O/U 37
Jets 9.5 @ Dolphins -9.5 O/U 37
Giants 6 @ Saints -6 O/U 39
49ers -12 @ Cardinals 12 O/U 47.5
Commanders 6.5 @ Rams -6.5 O/U 50.5
Cowboys 2 @ Bills -2 O/U 50.5
Ravens -3.5 @ Jaguars 3.5 O/U 42.5
Eagles -3 @ Seahawks 3 O/U 48.5
If you are looking to compare lines for the purposes of making Picks, then going to Miplet's page:
https://miplet.net/newnfl/
Will give you the most up-to-date lines that you can compare to the ones posted below.
Thank you again to Miplet!
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: N/A
Week 15: $40 Available
I would also like to thank Gordonm888 and Unjon, once again, for working together on the grading and standings. Grading the Picks is honestly something like 90% of the time spend otherwise.
The Week 15 Lines are as follows:
Vikings 3.5 @ Bengals -3.5 O/U 40.5
Steelers 1.5 @ Colts -1.5 O/U 42.5
Broncos 4.5 @ Lions -4.5 O/U 48
Falcons -3 @ Panthers 3 O/U 33.5
Bears 3 @ Browns -3 O/U 38.5
Buccaneers 3.5 @ Packers -3.5 O/U 42.5
Texans 3 @ Titans -3 O/U 37
Chiefs -8 @ Patriots 8 O/U 37
Jets 9.5 @ Dolphins -9.5 O/U 37
Giants 6 @ Saints -6 O/U 39
49ers -12 @ Cardinals 12 O/U 47.5
Commanders 6.5 @ Rams -6.5 O/U 50.5
Cowboys 2 @ Bills -2 O/U 50.5
Ravens -3.5 @ Jaguars 3.5 O/U 42.5
Eagles -3 @ Seahawks 3 O/U 48.5
If you are looking to compare lines for the purposes of making Picks, then going to Miplet's page:
https://miplet.net/newnfl/
Will give you the most up-to-date lines that you can compare to the ones posted below.
Thank you again to Miplet!
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: N/A
Week 15: $40 Available
I would also like to thank Gordonm888 and Unjon, once again, for working together on the grading and standings. Grading the Picks is honestly something like 90% of the time spend otherwise.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 15th, 2023 at 8:51:05 AM
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Juicy perfection bonus.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 15th, 2023 at 10:01:57 AM
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I wonder what link this is? https://miplet.net/newnfl/diff.php?week=15&day=15&month=12&year=2023&hour=6
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
December 16th, 2023 at 7:26:34 AM
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Just a reminder that there are 3 Saturday games. If you want to pick any you must PM all 5 of your picks to Mission before kickoff today and you cannot later change any picks.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 17th, 2023 at 8:42:58 AM
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Greetings!
The Week 15 Picks are as follows:
Mission146:
Titans UNDER 37
Commanders OVER 50.5
Patriots +8
Bears +3
Titans -3
JohnnyQ:
Vikings +3.5
Steelers +1.5
Broncos +4.5
Falcons -3
Bears +3
Wizard:
Vikings +3.5
Broncos +4.5
Panthers +3 CONFIDENCE
Bears +3
Buccaneers +3.5
Sparty10k:
Falcons -3
Browns -3
Jets over 37
Bills -2
Eagles over 48.5
Asswhoopermcdaddy:
Falcons -3
Packers -3.5
Cowboys 2
Ravens -3.5
Eagles -3 Confidence
scolist:
Eagles -3 confidence
Falcons -3
Cowboys 2
Chiefs -8
Dolphins -9.5
GenWyzgy:
Titans -3
Chiefs -8
Rams -6.5
Eagles -3
Jets Over 37
miplet:
Browns UNDER 38.5
Jets 9.5
Giants 6
Bills UNDER 50.5
Seahawks 3-confidence
jml24:
Bears 3
Buccaneers 3.5
Cowboys 2
Jaguars 3.5-Confidence
Seahawks 3
ncfatcat:
Buccaneers UNDER 42.5
Bears UNDER 38.5
Texans UNDER 37
Falcons UNDER 33.5
Cowboys UNDER 50.5 Confidence
PlayYourCardsRight:
Falcons -3
Packers -3.5
Chiefs -8
Saints -6
49ers -12 CONFIDENCE
FourFiveFace:
Vikings +3.5
Chiefs -8
Giants +6-Confidence
Commanders +6.5
Bills -2
Jstephe8WVU
49ers -12
Cowboys +2
Saints -6
Ravens over 42.5
Eagles -3
unJon:
Steelers UNDER 42.5 - confidence
Broncos OVER 48
Browns UNDER 38.5
Titans -3
Giants +6
DJChaps:
Chiefs -8 Confidence
49ers -12
Eagles -3
Falcons -3
Giants +6
Johnzimbo:
Lions -4.5
Bills -2
Titans -3 confidence
Bengals -3.5
Patriots under 37
Odiousgambit:
Colts Under 42.5
Browns Under 38.5
Buccaneers 3.5
Rams -6.5
Rams Under 50.5
Gordonm888:
Vikings 3.5
Steelers 1.5
Lions -4.5
Bears 3
Jets 9.5 Confidence
IndyJeffrey:
Bengals -3.5
Colts -1.5
Dolphins -9.5
Dolphins Over 37
Cowboys 2
AvianRandy:
Colts UNDER 42.5
Bills OVER 50.5
Falcons -3 CONFIDENCE
Ravens -3.5
Texans OVER 37
Joeman:
Bengals -3.5-confidence
Jaguars +3.5
Cowboys +2
Dolphins OVER 37
Falcons -3
nunbeater:
49ers -12
Cardinals OVER 47.5
Cowboys OVER 50.5 -Confidence
Bills -2
Seahawks +3
VegasBrent:
Panthers +3
Texans +3-confidence
Commanders +6.5
Jaguars +3.5
Seahawks +3
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: N/A
Week 15: $40 Available
The Week 15 Picks are as follows:
Mission146:
Titans UNDER 37
Commanders OVER 50.5
Patriots +8
Bears +3
Titans -3
JohnnyQ:
Vikings +3.5
Steelers +1.5
Broncos +4.5
Falcons -3
Bears +3
Wizard:
Vikings +3.5
Broncos +4.5
Panthers +3 CONFIDENCE
Bears +3
Buccaneers +3.5
Sparty10k:
Falcons -3
Browns -3
Jets over 37
Bills -2
Eagles over 48.5
Asswhoopermcdaddy:
Falcons -3
Packers -3.5
Cowboys 2
Ravens -3.5
Eagles -3 Confidence
scolist:
Eagles -3 confidence
Falcons -3
Cowboys 2
Chiefs -8
Dolphins -9.5
GenWyzgy:
Titans -3
Chiefs -8
Rams -6.5
Eagles -3
Jets Over 37
miplet:
Browns UNDER 38.5
Jets 9.5
Giants 6
Bills UNDER 50.5
Seahawks 3-confidence
jml24:
Bears 3
Buccaneers 3.5
Cowboys 2
Jaguars 3.5-Confidence
Seahawks 3
ncfatcat:
Buccaneers UNDER 42.5
Bears UNDER 38.5
Texans UNDER 37
Falcons UNDER 33.5
Cowboys UNDER 50.5 Confidence
PlayYourCardsRight:
Falcons -3
Packers -3.5
Chiefs -8
Saints -6
49ers -12 CONFIDENCE
FourFiveFace:
Vikings +3.5
Chiefs -8
Giants +6-Confidence
Commanders +6.5
Bills -2
Jstephe8WVU
49ers -12
Cowboys +2
Saints -6
Ravens over 42.5
Eagles -3
unJon:
Steelers UNDER 42.5 - confidence
Broncos OVER 48
Browns UNDER 38.5
Titans -3
Giants +6
DJChaps:
Chiefs -8 Confidence
49ers -12
Eagles -3
Falcons -3
Giants +6
Johnzimbo:
Lions -4.5
Bills -2
Titans -3 confidence
Bengals -3.5
Patriots under 37
Odiousgambit:
Colts Under 42.5
Browns Under 38.5
Buccaneers 3.5
Rams -6.5
Rams Under 50.5
Gordonm888:
Vikings 3.5
Steelers 1.5
Lions -4.5
Bears 3
Jets 9.5 Confidence
IndyJeffrey:
Bengals -3.5
Colts -1.5
Dolphins -9.5
Dolphins Over 37
Cowboys 2
AvianRandy:
Colts UNDER 42.5
Bills OVER 50.5
Falcons -3 CONFIDENCE
Ravens -3.5
Texans OVER 37
Joeman:
Bengals -3.5-confidence
Jaguars +3.5
Cowboys +2
Dolphins OVER 37
Falcons -3
nunbeater:
49ers -12
Cardinals OVER 47.5
Cowboys OVER 50.5 -Confidence
Bills -2
Seahawks +3
VegasBrent:
Panthers +3
Texans +3-confidence
Commanders +6.5
Jaguars +3.5
Seahawks +3
PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: N/A
Week 15: $40 Available
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 17th, 2023 at 8:53:49 AM
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Darn. I must not have hit the send button! Made picks, but I must have screwed up with the message somehow. I'm usually very early with my picks. Sigh.
For posterity's sake, here are what my picks were:
Vegasbrent:
Panthers +3
Texans +3-confidence
Commanders +6.5
Jaguars +3.5
Seahawks +3
I'm not doing well enough in the regular standings, but I still like to try for the Perfection Bonus. Sigh. Kinda cheering against myself now!
For posterity's sake, here are what my picks were:
Vegasbrent:
Panthers +3
Texans +3-confidence
Commanders +6.5
Jaguars +3.5
Seahawks +3
I'm not doing well enough in the regular standings, but I still like to try for the Perfection Bonus. Sigh. Kinda cheering against myself now!
It's not a sin if you don't win, but it's a tragedy if you don't try.
Be happy and have fun!
December 17th, 2023 at 8:56:04 AM
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Quote: VegasbrentDarn. I must not have hit the send button! Made picks, but I must have screwed up with the message somehow. I'm usually very early with my picks. Sigh.
For posterity's sake, here are what my picks were:
Vegasbrent:
Panthers +3
Texans +3-confidence
Commanders +6.5
Jaguars +3.5
Seahawks +3
I'm not doing well enough in the regular standings, but I still like to try for the Perfection Bonus. Sigh. Kinda cheering against myself now!
link to original post
I'm going to make the decision to allow them. None of these games have kicked off yet and you're in Standings no man's land. There's also the fact that you couldn't have possibly analyzed everyone else's Picks to determine the Picks that would best benefit you that fast.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 17th, 2023 at 9:33:19 AM
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That's very much appreciated! Thank you!
It's not a sin if you don't win, but it's a tragedy if you don't try.
Be happy and have fun!
December 17th, 2023 at 9:41:44 AM
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It appears soopoo did not submit picks, correct?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 17th, 2023 at 9:50:34 AM
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I apologize for the delay. It took me a while to realize that soopoo was having a skip week, and that Jstephe8WVU had a colectomy.
Lots of love for the Eagles, Chiefs and for fading the Panthers, lol. Most heavily picked game was Cowboys v Bills.
Week 15 Picks Summary
| Game | Away | Home | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings 3.5 @ Bengals -3.5 O/U 40.5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Steelers 1.5 @ Colts -1.5 O/U 42.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Broncos 4.5 @ Lions -4.5 O/U 48 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Falcons -3 @ Panthers 3 O/U 33.5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Bears 3 @ Browns -3 O/U 38.5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Buccaneers 3.5 @ Packers -3.5 O/U 42.5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Texans 3 @ Titans -3 O/U 37 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Chiefs -8 @ Patriots 8 O/U 37 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jets 9.5 @ Dolphins -9.5 O/U 37 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Giants 6 @ Saints -6 O/U 39 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 49Ers -12 @ Cardinals 12 O/U 47.5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Commanders 6.5 @ Rams -6.5 O/U 50.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Cowboys 2 @ Bills -2 O/U 50.5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Ravens -3.5 @ Jaguars 3.5 O/U 42.5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Eagles -3 @ Seahawks 3 O/U 48.5 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Lots of love for the Eagles, Chiefs and for fading the Panthers, lol. Most heavily picked game was Cowboys v Bills.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 17th, 2023 at 10:00:00 AM
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Quote: gordonm888It appears soopoo did not submit picks, correct?
link to original post
Correct; he probably just forgot. With two missed weeks, he's pretty much playing for Perfection Bonuses when he does pick.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
December 17th, 2023 at 1:34:28 PM
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Mission's picks received early this AM. Was sleeping from working overnight.
December 17th, 2023 at 5:11:46 PM
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At the conclusion of the Week 15 Sunday afternoon games, no contestant is still eligible to win this week's perfection bonus.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 17th, 2023 at 6:26:02 PM
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I came back to reality this week!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 17th, 2023 at 7:21:52 PM
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It tightened up, but you still lead the pack.
December 18th, 2023 at 8:32:03 PM
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EDITED AND CORRECTED
Tight race at the top, and a bit tighter at the bottom.
Week 15 results
| Player | Week 15 Record | Win% |
|---|---|---|
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| avianrandy: | 1-5 | 16.7% |
| djchaps: | 3-3 | 50% |
| fourfiveface: | 3-3 | 50% |
| genwyzgy: | 2-3 | 40% |
| gordonm888: | 2-3 | 40% |
| indyjeffrey: | 2-3 | 40% |
| jml24: | 2-3 | 40% |
| joeman: | 0-6 | 0% |
| johnnyq: | 1-3 | 25% |
| johnzimbo: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 2-3 | 40% |
| miplet: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| mission146: | 1-3 | 25% |
| ncfatcat: | 5-1 | 83.3% |
| nunbeater: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| odiousgambit: | 4-1 | 80% |
| playyourcardsright: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| rainman: | 0-0 | 0% |
| scolist: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| soopoo: | 0-0 | 0% |
| sparty10k: | 1-3 | 25% |
| unjon: | 2-4 | 33.3% |
| vegasbrent: | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| wizard: | 4-1 | 80% |
Aggregate Results after Week 15
Tight race at the top, and a bit tighter at the bottom.
| Player | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| unjon: | 56-33 | 62.9% |
| djchaps: | 51-32 | 61.4% |
| playyourcardsright: | 52-33 | 61.2% |
| ncfatcat: | 45-34 | 57% |
| miplet: | 46-37 | 55.4% |
| johnzimbo: | 46-41 | 52.9% |
| odiousgambit: | 40-37 | 51.9% |
| genwyzgy: | 43-41 | 51.2% |
| wizard: | 42-43 | 49.4% |
| sparty10k: | 36-37 | 49.3% |
| nunbeater: | 43-45 | 48.9% |
| jstephe8wvu: | 37-39 | 48.7% |
| gordonm888: | 40-43 | 48.2% |
| joeman: | 42-46 | 47.7% |
| vegasbrent: | 40-46 | 46.5% |
| scolist: | 37-43 | 46.3% |
| fourfiveface: | 40-47 | 46% |
| rainman: | 29-35 | 45.3% |
| jml24: | 36-44 | 45% |
| indyjeffrey: | 38-48 | 44.2% |
| soopoo: | 34-43 | 44.2% |
| asswhoopermcdaddy: | 36-51 | 41.4% |
| avianrandy: | 33-49 | 40.2% |
| johnnyq: | 30-48 | 38.5% |
| mission146: | 25-49 | 33.8% |
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Dec 18, 2023
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 18th, 2023 at 8:51:36 PM
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I think I was 4 - 2, not 4 - 1. I'm high maintenance this week!
It's not a sin if you don't win, but it's a tragedy if you don't try.
Be happy and have fun!
December 18th, 2023 at 9:18:58 PM
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Quote: VegasbrentI think I was 4 - 2, not 4 - 1. I'm high maintenance this week!
link to original post
You are correct. Thanks for pointing this out. I had an entry error on the score of one of the games, which I have now corrected. The results post above has been edited/revised to reflect this correction.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
December 19th, 2023 at 7:00:17 AM
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Just common distribution that we’re bunched up in the middle, but I make it at least a dozen players fighting to be most average. I’m guessing we’ll end up with multiple players at exactly.500.
