2023 WoV Picks Game DISCUSSION Thread

Perfection bonus to $50? This is all I have to play for at this point.

Perfection bonus to $50? This is all I have to play for at this point.

Quote: IndyJeffrey

Perfection bonus to $50? This is all I have to play for at this point.
link to original post

Other than the DQ'ed players (rainman, soopoo) I think it's still mathematically possible for every (or almost every?) player to win at least one of the three prizes: First Place, You Suck, or Mr. Average. Although most of us only have Mr. Average within our horizons.

Quote: gordonm888

EDITED AND CORRECTED...<SNIP>...

Aggregate Results after Week 15

Player	Record	Win %
unjon:	56-33	62.9%
djchaps:	51-32	61.4%
playyourcardsright:	52-33	61.2%
ncfatcat:	45-34	57%
miplet:	46-37	55.4%
johnzimbo:	46-41	52.9%
odiousgambit:	40-37	51.9%
genwyzgy:	43-41	51.2%
wizard:	42-43	49.4%
sparty10k:	36-37	49.3%
nunbeater:	43-45	48.9%
jstephe8wvu:	37-39	48.7%
gordonm888:	40-43	48.2%
joeman:	42-46	47.7%
vegasbrent:	40-46	46.5%
scolist:	37-43	46.3%
fourfiveface:	40-47	46%
rainman:	29-35	45.3%
jml24:	36-44	45%
indyjeffrey:	38-48	44.2%
soopoo:	34-43	44.2%
asswhoopermcdaddy:	36-51	41.4%
avianrandy:	33-49	40.2%
johnnyq:	30-48	38.5%
mission146:	25-49	33.8%

link to original post

= 50.00%

(Won: 997, Lost: 997, Total: 1994)
Median player win rate: 48.2%

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: IndyJeffrey

Perfection bonus to $50? This is all I have to play for at this point.
link to original post

Other than the DQ'ed players (rainman, soopoo) I think it's still mathematically possible for every (or almost every?) player to win at least one of the three prizes: First Place, You Suck, or Mr. Average. Although most of us only have Mr. Average within our horizons.
link to original post

The product works as intended!!!

Mr. Average should be in everyone's horizons because, given that going .500 on the season at least ties, you'd have to be me (or Unjon) to effectively have no chance at it with as many as eighteen decisions (Confidence Picks) essentially left. DJChaps and PlayYourCardsRight (Second and Third after Week 15) could go 0-18 and would still each finish only one game over .500.

As far as the bottom goes, JohnnyQ is second to last and could, in theory, go 18-0 to finish at exactly .500 and make some Perfection Bonuses in the meantime.

UnJon is pretty well ahead for 1st Place and has only two players that are any real threat; it's a good thing Top Three pays. I'd say JohnZimbo is the reasonable bottom cutoff for players who have a realistic chance at making Top Three, but a few others theoretically could get there.

In reality, the bottom prize is a two-way fight between JohnnyQ and myself. AvianRandy is very much on the outside looking in and would have a small chance; I think one or two other players are theoretically possible, but would need a lot of help.

If I was just outside of Top Three, there's a definite strategy that I'd be pursuing right now, but it probably wouldn't be appropriate to say what that strategy would be. If someone reminds me, or I actually remember, I'll say what my strategy would have been after the Week 18 Picks are posted.

Quote: gordonm888

It appears soopoo did not submit picks, correct?
link to original post

I’ve self disqualified. I will try and submit picks to go for perfection bonuses.

Quote: DrawingDead

He's not blind. He's just wearing sunglasses!

PS, I just racked up my second perfect (0-6) week this year!

Greetings!

Here is my article about losing interest in the NFL; it also serves as a review of my predictions from a few of last season's articles (I mostly got it right, can you believe it?):

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/end-of-a-relationship-mission-and-nfl/

This was originally going to be two articles, but Deadspin finally edited an article that I was going to write a very lengthy piece eviscerating them for. There's still a very good chance that they're going to get sued by a family for something they did to a small child, but if you want to know what that something is, you're just going to have to click the link above.

Quote: Joeman

Quote: DrawingDead

He's not blind. He's just wearing sunglasses!

PS, I just racked up my second perfect (0-6) week this year!
link to original post

If you say so.



P.S. Note from Stormie says The Library ladies treasure your contribution to the Baby Needs Shoes fund..

Greetings!

The Week 16 Lines are as follows:

Bengals -2 @ Steelers 2 O/U 38
Bills -11.5 @ Chargers 11.5 O/U 44
Colts 1 @ Falcons -1 O/U 44.5
Packers -5 @ Panthers 5 O/U 37.5
Browns -3 @ Texans 3 O/U 40
Lions -3 @ Vikings 3 O/U 47
Commanders 3 @ Jets -3 O/U 37
Seahawks -2.5 @ Titans 2.5 O/U 41.5
Jaguars 1 @ Buccaneers -1 O/U 42.5
Cardinals 4 @ Bears -4 O/U 43
Cowboys 1 @ Dolphins -1 O/U 50
Patriots 6.5 @ Broncos -6.5 O/U 34
Raiders 10 @ Chiefs -10 O/U 41
Giants 12 @ Eagles -12 O/U 42.5
Ravens 5 @ 49ers -5 O/U 47

If you are looking to compare lines for the purposes of making Picks, then going to Miplet's page:

https://miplet.net/newnfl/

Will give you the most up-to-date lines that you can compare to the ones posted below.

Thank you again to Miplet!

PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:

Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: N/A
Week 15: N/A
Week 16: $50 Available

I would also like to thank Gordonm888 and Unjon, once again, for working together on the grading and standings. Grading the Picks is honestly something like 90% of the time spend otherwise.

A couple admin items:

1) there are two Saturday games. Get your picks to mission before the kickoff of the early game at 4:30pm ET if you want to pick those. You need to submit all 5 picks by then and cannot change.

2) I’ll be handling the grading this week. I likely will not get an opportunity to do the summary of picks tomorrow due to Christmas Eve activities. I should be able to report the results shortly after the night game on Christmas.

I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday weekend. Good luck with your picks (except for those too close to me in pole position).

Yep just a little bit late
https://miplet.net/newnfl/diff.php?week=16&day=21&month=12&year=2023&hour=10

Greetings!

I'm a bit under the weather and have a few errands to run regardless.

I just want to let everyone know that the Picks will be posted prior to 13:00 EST, but it might be close to that time. I'm also delaying a bit because we have a couple of players who haven't made Picks yet, and as most of you know, I'm pretty liberal about the deadline as long as I haven't posted the Picks yet.

That's not to say anyone should try to push the line. As soon as I see any Picks that aren't my own after 10:00a.m. EST, all bets are off and Picks generally wouldn't play.

I have received the pics from Mission.

Quote: Mission146

I'm a bit under the weather and have a few errands to run regardless.

I hope you are feeling much better soon. Happy Holidays !

i went 0-2 with Saturday picks. Any dreams I had of taking first are toast. Maybe a shot at Mr. Average now

Quote: JohnnyQ

Quote: Mission146

I'm a bit under the weather and have a few errands to run regardless.

I hope you are feeling much better soon. Happy Holidays !
link to original post

Thank you and likewise; my fiancee is in a much worse state than I am, but she started before me, so we'll see.

Greetings!

The Week 16 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Panthers +5
Browns -3
Dolphins OVER 50
Cowboys +1
Patriots UNDER 34

Wizard:
Chargers +11.5
Panthers +5
Texans +3-CONFIDENCE
Vikings +3
Commanders +3

scolist:
Lions -3
Commmanders 3
Broncos -6.5
Ravens 5
Falcons -1

FourFiveFace:
Lions -3
Titans +2.5
Bears -4-Confidence
Patriots +6.5
Eagles -12

Jstephe8WVU:
Falcons -1
Seahawks -2.5
Commanders +3
Packers Over 37.5
Eagles -12

miplet:
Falcons -1
Panthers 5
Seahawks -2.5-confidence
Jaguars 1
Dolphins -1

GenWyzgy:
Lions -3
Vikings Over 47
Bears -4
Dolphins-1 Confidence
Buccaneers-1

unJon:
Seahawks OVER 41.5
Jaguars OVER 42.5
Cowboys UNDER 50
Broncos UNDER 34-confidence
Eagles OVER 42.5

Sparty10k:
Colts under 44.5
Lions -3
Buccaneers -1
Cowboys under 50
Ravens over 47

Gordonm888:
Browns -3 Confidence
49ers -5
Commanders +3
Patriots Under 34
Eagles -13

ncfatcat
Packers OVER 38
Falcons -1
Titans +2.5
Broncos - 6.5 Confidence
Ravens +6

PlayYourCardsRight:
Colts 1
Jets -3
Jaguars 1
Bears -4 CONFIDENCE
49ers -5

JML24:
Panthers 5
Texans 3
Vikings 3
Commanders 3
Seahawks -2.5-Confidence

Joeman:
Colts +1
Packers -5
Browns -3 -confidence
Broncos -6.5
Ravens OVER 47

DJChaps:
Bills -11.5
Lions -3
Bengals-2
Cardinals +4
Buccaneers -1 Confidence

IndyJeffrey
Bengals -2
Chargers 11.5
Falcons -1
Packers -5
Dolphins -1 - CONFIDENCE

Johnzimbo:
Bengals -2
Bills -11.5
Cowboys +1
Cowboys over 50 confidence
Jets under 47

Odiousgambit:
Bengals -2
Steelers Under 38
Seahawks -2.5
Broncos -6.5
Broncos over 34

AvianRandy:
Skips Week 16

JohnnyQ:
Steelers 2
Bills -11.5
Texans 3 CONFIDENCE
Raiders 10
Eagles -12

nunbeater:
Dolphins OVER 50 -Confidence
Jets UNDER 37
Dolphins -1
49ers -5
Panthers OVER 37.5

SOOPOO:
Bills -11.5 Confidence
Titans +2.5
Patriots +6.5
Colts +1
Giants +12

Vegasbrent:
Browns -3-confidence
Packers -5
Bears -4
Patriots +6.5
Giants +12


PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:
Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: N/A
Week 15: N/A
Week 16: $50 Available

Merry Christmas everyone!

I see skip weeks from avianrandy but also no picks from asswhoopermcdaddy so assume that’s also a skip. Interim results for the week and in the aggregate below.

Congrats to genwyzgy for nailing the large perfection bonus already. Two other people are 4-0 but neither used a confidence pick, so are not in contention to split the prize.

Player	Week 16 Record	Win%
asswhoopermcdaddy:	0-0	0%
avianrandy:	0-0	0%
djchaps:	3-3	50%
fourfiveface:	4-1	80%
genwyzgy:	6-0	100%
gordonm888:	3-1	75%
indyjeffrey:	4-2	66.7%
jml24:	4-2	66.7%
joeman:	2-3	40%
johnnyq:	1-3	25%
johnzimbo:	0-6	0%
jstephe8wvu:	4-0	100%
miplet:	5-1	83.3%
mission146:	2-3	40%
ncfatcat:	2-3	40%
nunbeater:	2-3	40%
odiousgambit:	2-3	40%
playyourcardsright:	2-3	40%
rainman:	0-0	0%
scolist:	3-1	75%
soopoo:	1-4	20%
sparty10k:	4-0	100%
unjon:	1-4	20%
vegasbrent:	4-1	80%
wizard:	3-3	50%

And the big news is we currently have a new first place based on my terrible performance this week. Ugh. Tight race with the top three with less than a % between us.

Player	Record	Win %
djchaps:	54-35	60.7%
unjon:	57-37	60.6%
playyourcardsright:	54-36	60%
miplet:	51-38	57.3%
ncfatcat:	47-37	56%
genwyzgy:	49-41	54.4%
sparty10k:	40-37	51.9%
jstephe8wvu:	41-39	51.3%
odiousgambit:	42-40	51.2%
johnzimbo:	46-47	49.5%
wizard:	45-46	49.5%
gordonm888:	43-44	49.4%
nunbeater:	45-48	48.4%
vegasbrent:	44-47	48.4%
fourfiveface:	44-48	47.8%
scolist:	40-44	47.6%
joeman:	44-49	47.3%
jml24:	40-46	46.5%
indyjeffrey:	42-50	45.7%
rainman:	29-35	45.3%
soopoo:	35-47	42.7%
asswhoopermcdaddy:	36-51	41.4%
avianrandy:	33-49	40.2%
johnnyq:	31-51	37.8%
mission146:	27-52	34.2%

Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

The Week 16 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Panthers +5
link to original post

The Packer Backers I deal with appreciate your continued track record.

Quote: unJon

Merry Christmas everyone!

<SNIP>

With a Christmas miracle! The phenomenal replication of sightless simian primate perfection continues!

Won 62 & Lost 62:

Quote: unJon

<SNIP>

Player	Week 16 Record	Win%
asswhoopermcdaddy:	0-0	0%
avianrandy:	0-0	0%
djchaps:	3-3	50%
fourfiveface:	4-1	80%
genwyzgy:	6-0	100%
gordonm888:	3-1	75%
indyjeffrey:	4-2	66.7%
jml24:	4-2	66.7%
joeman:	2-3	40%
johnnyq:	1-3	25%
johnzimbo:	0-6	0%
jstephe8wvu:	4-0	100%
miplet:	5-1	83.3%
mission146:	2-3	40%
ncfatcat:	2-3	40%
nunbeater:	2-3	40%
odiousgambit:	2-3	40%
playyourcardsright:	2-3	40%
rainman:	0-0	0%
scolist:	3-1	75%
soopoo:	1-4	20%
sparty10k:	4-0	100%
unjon:	1-4	20%
vegasbrent:	4-1	80%
wizard:	3-3	50%

Congrats to Genwyzygy on the perfect week.

Regarding our aggregate record as pickers, let me point out that we have a couple of members who are tanking and trying to make losing picks. Also I will claim that as a group we are doing better than the talking heads on ESPN.

Thanks to unjon for so ably filling in for me on a holiday weekend. Actually, he has done so much work behind the scenes that I’m delighted to see him doing some of the visible work.

Quote:

...trying to make losing picks.

Ho, ho, ho; hilarity for the holiday! Yeah, that'll work; you betcha, let's go with that...er, ah, ahem...

A participant here made the following declaration (October 2nd):

Quote: A Wizardy Sharp

I jest but I am actively trying to lose now. I wasn’t the first two weeks; I just sucked.

At that time their win rate was either 20%, or 17%-ish depending on when you choose to mark the "on purpose now" pivot. It is now up to 34%. And climbing bit by bit. Odds on more than doubling up to crack 40% by the end? At this point I'd make it about a +110 prop.

TOO LONG, ANNOYING, RISKY UN-FESTIVE STUFF, DON"T READ: Here's a prediction I'm certain to take to the bank, actually based on several decades of closely analogous not-so-sporting professional experience with many hundreds of folks in certain specialized residential settings. For a subset of the those likely to be most intensely attracted to venues like this (and prolly ESPECIALLY this particular forum) actual documented results will have no effect whatsoever on their belief system regarding any of this. There is no limit to the emotionally protective (but likely destructive in practice) cognitive gymnastics that can be performed. And for some who are among that fraction (but not for most involved), any sort of documentation, statements, or even fairly gentle hints of reality will actually tend to be exlperienced as personally quite threatening for them, provoking feelings of anger. In fact, it already did a little bit of that for someone a couple months ago.

But for most of y'all, have fun, and be of good cheer about any help you can still manage to provide this way to support those hardworking & distinctively literate single moms of The Library! Remember, any such funds that once were yours aren't really lost. They're just redistributed! Ho, ho, ho!

Quote: Studious Stormie

...

Stormie quit talking to me about two % points ago. I'm thinking maybe she doesn't really love me, but at least she's recently tapered off on pestering me for unJon's number.

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: Studious Stormie

...

Stormie quit talking to me about two % points ago. I'm thinking maybe she doesn't really love me, but at least she's recently tapered off on pestering me for unJon's number.
link to original post

She’s welcome to pop in here Sunday morning and see my picks based on stale lines that are otherwise as good as a blind monkey’s (and certainly no better).

Quote: unJon

Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: Studious Stormie

...

Stormie quit talking to me about two % points ago. I'm thinking maybe she doesn't really love me, but at least she's recently tapered off on pestering me for unJon's number.
link to original post

She’s welcome to pop in here Sunday morning and see my picks based on stale lines that are otherwise as good as a blind monkey’s (and certainly no better).
link to original post

Interesting that you (and maybe estpecially you?) mention that. I find the potential issue of stale lines interesting. My kinda sport. I haven't drilled into the procedures at all for this entertaining little informal contest to try to tease out whether it could be relevant to how anyone might do things here, and if so whether enough to materially benefit anyone's results.

But. Before widespread expansion of sportsbetting venues through digital platforms, continuously updated in real-time, it was very possible to make use of the lines some Nevada brick & mortar (the only kind that existed) book's (rather lazily issued) parlay cards in some interesting & rewarding ways. And I prefer to stop right there, leaving that wordy obtuseness basking in all its glory, just in case I might find a venue where that kind highly entertaining opportunity still exists. (And if it does, I'd also rather not help it benefit those huddled-up in the weird little tree-fort clubhouse that's attached to this site. Don't ask; honest answer wouldn't be allowed here.)

P.S. Check your picks? Oh, but I don't think that'd fit with the petite performance artist's business plan. Ya see, somehow I get the feeling it isn't about wagering any of HER precious brass pole or Champagne Room money, but maybe more about a cliche that's older than I am: "In Las Vegas, ladies prefer gentlemen with chips." Until they don't. (Don't have them, not don't prefer them.)

First of all, how are we supposed to be performing as a group? Why should we be better than .500? The point of the game isn’t to show off, it’s to play a game.

Besides, where are your Picks?

I flipped Week 3 and admitted my Picks sucked the first two weeks. Are you not seeing the part where I said my Picks sucked? Since then, I’m 24-43, which is essentially 43-24, not counting this week, which is 2-3, which for me, is 3-2.

Pick any week you want, but if my goal is to lose, I’d say I’ve been doing a good job of it since any week you pick.

If nothing else, you’d think you’d just be happy that my record purports to benefit your point that we’re not that good as a group. I still don’t understand why we’re supposed to be.

Of course, second to last (JohnnyQ) has been on default Picks MOST weeks. First five games listed, go look and tell me if I’m wrong. Simple majority of weeks. Pure variance.

In any case, I don’t know what you think you’re proving or why you care. You or literally anyone you know can play in the contest. I’ve invited supposed professional sports bettors to play, but most (if not all) apparently don’t have the sack to make all of their Picks known in advance.

From October 15th:

Quote: Mission146

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: nunbeater

good lord my instincts told me not to bet on the Bears
I should have listened!

I DIDN"T LISTEN!!
link to original post

Even worse, you and I both made confidence bets on the 49ers to cover - which now seems very unlikely.

The forum made 18 picks on the 49ers ATS and only 1 pick on the Browns -the latter a pick by FourFiveFace. Apparently, FourFive Face is a supernatural genius at picking. And just as apparent, everyone else is hell-bent on depriving Mission of the "You Suck" prize.
link to original post

Right???

I’m 0-3 so far this week and at 20% going in. I should be feeling great right now, but I have to sweat people picking as badly as I do every single week!
link to original post

I think it’s undeniable that I’m trying to lose, at least that early. Why would I be, ‘Sweating’ people otherwise?

Also, most of what I’m doing NOW is variance. I’ve barely watched any actual football this season. Part of my strategy has just been taking the OVER on huge totals and hoping to lose, which I think I’ve won as many as I’ve lost as those. I’ve also went UNDER on a few for no reason other than thinking the number is fundamentally too low. No special insight. No claim of special insight. I have been trying to lose, but I haven’t been trying hard.

Aside from the general human tendency to remove all fun from anything that happens, what point are you trying to make? I can’t imagine anyone but you cares, or has ever cared, about the group’s overall record. I don’t recall anyone ever saying that people should be following our Picks. For all I know, our top five consensus Picks might be among the worst week in and out.

Also, you have to pick five games a week. Even if we were trying to prove something, restricted to spreads and totals, I don’t think any sane bettor is making a point to make exactly five picks every week but one.

Actually, 40% on the season? I’d have to go 9-1 or 10-0 the last two weeks. You want +110 to take the side I win at least nine of ten? I’m game, but that’s a suicide bet for you. I wouldn’t bet on myself to win nine of ten TRYING, so I can just throw my darts and feel good I won’t.

Quote: Mission146

Of course, second to last (JohnnyQ) has been on default Picks MOST weeks. First five games listed, go look and tell me if I’m wrong. Simple majority of weeks. Pure variance.

Yep, just variance. I don't think I can catch Mission146 at the bottom. Oh well.

But regarding all my default picks, a word of explanation:

Even though we had internet packages mostly, WoV is blocked on the cruise ships, and that's where I spent a lot of time earlier this year. So yes I had many weeks of default picks, so THANKS to M146 for letting me do that.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/trip-reports/38452-120-days-of-casino-cruise-ship-sailing/

I hope everyone had a nice Christmas.

I suspect most of us had at least a tolerable Christmas, JohnnyQ, though I do wonder about some. If anyone wants someone to BS with, I’m generally free for phone company…especially if we schedule.

Not always sane. Not generally sane. But, I generally keep scheduled calls. Just keep me off politics and casino hypocrisy, or you’ll get what can best be described as, “A ramblIng, manic, unhinged rant.” If you want one of those, just read one of my articles and it’ll spare you listening to my voice! HA!

Merry Christmas to all!

Going out on a limb and grading final game for Ravens and over. Doing so as I won’t be able to post later when game over. If Ravens and over doesn’t hit, I will correct this tomorrow.

Player	Week 16 Record	Win%
asswhoopermcdaddy:	0-0	0%
avianrandy:	0-0	0%
djchaps:	3-3	50%
fourfiveface:	4-2	66.7%
genwyzgy:	6-0	100%
gordonm888:	3-3	50%
indyjeffrey:	4-2	66.7%
jml24:	4-2	66.7%
joeman:	3-3	50%
johnnyq:	2-4	33.3%
johnzimbo:	0-6	0%
jstephe8wvu:	4-1	80%
miplet:	5-1	83.3%
mission146:	2-3	40%
ncfatcat:	3-3	50%
nunbeater:	2-4	33.3%
odiousgambit:	2-3	40%
playyourcardsright:	2-4	33.3%
rainman:	0-0	0%
scolist:	4-1	80%
soopoo:	2-4	33.3%
sparty10k:	5-0	100%
unjon:	2-4	33.3%
vegasbrent:	5-1	83.3%
wizard:	3-3	50%

unJon back where he belongs (for now):

Player	Record	Win %
unjon:	58-37	61.1%
djchaps:	54-35	60.7%
playyourcardsright:	54-37	59.3%
miplet:	51-38	57.3%
ncfatcat:	48-37	56.5%
genwyzgy:	49-41	54.4%
sparty10k:	41-37	52.6%
odiousgambit:	42-40	51.2%
jstephe8wvu:	41-40	50.6%
johnzimbo:	46-47	49.5%
wizard:	45-46	49.5%
vegasbrent:	45-47	48.9%
gordonm888:	43-46	48.3%
scolist:	41-44	48.2%
joeman:	45-49	47.9%
nunbeater:	45-49	47.9%
fourfiveface:	44-49	47.3%
jml24:	40-46	46.5%
indyjeffrey:	42-50	45.7%
rainman:	29-35	45.3%
soopoo:	36-47	43.4%
asswhoopermcdaddy:	36-51	41.4%
avianrandy:	33-49	40.2%
johnnyq:	32-52	38.1%
mission146:	27-52	34.2%

Oh my. [insert pic of exploding volcano here]

Quote: Me, the Dead looking guy

And for some who are among that fraction (but not for most involved), any sort of documentation, statements, or even fairly gentle hints of reality will actually tend to be experienced as personally quite threatening for them, provoking feelings of anger.

Well that didn’t take long. So furiously cheesed-off beyond what I might have imagined, way out of proportion to anything at all, orders of magnitude more than I’d have ever guessed, and some possible meanings of that won’t be subtle for most looking on. You won’t be able to believe it, but I really truly sincerely do hope you’re OK.

Seems like nothing but inexpensive entertainment for most is what's going on here, as far as I can tell. I say that "like a good thing." My “pick?” As I said months ago, to shamelessly cheat by taking the mirror image of all the (mostly) good humored folks, with the net result so far of achieving exactly the same outcome to date. Sue me. Because I think my profoundly ignorant opinion of NFL outcomes would amount to a small meaningless set of randomly distributed results of no particular interest to anyone, least of all me. Feel free to use that as evidence in the aforementioned lawsuit. Some competing here without pretensions may find the little extra step of simply documenting the objective reality of actual random outcomes of this inherently random enterprise a bit amusing, or perhaps even potentially slightly useful for anyone looking on with any delusions about the subject that go beyond a healthy attitude of having (and poking) some fun. Or not, at the cost of some misspent electrons on the 'net, while adding just a teensy bit to the traffic/visibility of this pick-em game.

 

Quote:

...how are we supposed to be performing as a group?

Eventually, just like you (plural) are. Throughout the beautifully almost perfectly symmetrical bell curve that has emerged, including both tails of the naturally occuring distribution of individual outcomes. At BOTH ends. As someone else here has very sensibly stated, with an admirably honest and thoroughly healthy realistic attitude, more than a few times.

Quote:

Why should we be better than .500?

There’s no good reason you or anyone collectively or individually “should,” in my opinion (and that of legions of rigorous highly credible academic researchers of the subject, as noted earlier). Not unless someone is seriously attached to some unfortunate misguided belief that this is “supposed” to be some kind of a den of assembled “sharps” with fantasies of being “professional” at [xyz, abc]

Quote:

you’d think you’d just be happy

And so I am, as I strongly suspect most others are as well, including those who happen to be on the way to collect no return from their modest expenditure beyond the reward of milking some fun from it, adding a little skosh of extra interest to what’s on TV these days.

Quote:

I’ve invited supposed professional sports bettors to play, but most (if not all) apparently don’t have the sack to make all of their Picks known in advance.

[emphasis added] And THAT, Sir, is finally a supremely excellent point, well worth highlighting, important and interesting to share. One that can be both instructive and cheerfully amusing for (almost) all. Thank-you very much for it.

Mission, or one of the graders:

Can you identify who has taken their SKIP week and who has not? That used to be on the bottom of the standings, but I do not recall seeing it this year.

Thanks

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Mission, or one of the graders:

Can you identify who has taken their SKIP week and who has not? That used to be on the bottom of the standings, but I do not recall seeing it this year.

Thanks
link to original post

First all of, congratulations to GenWyzgy on the Perfection Bonus of $50 for Week 16!

Secondly, I’ll wait for UnJon and Gordon to chime in on whether or not the program keeps track of that; if the program does not, then I’ll manually do it myself. I don’t expect that it would take longer than 15-20 minutes.

Naturally, any winners of (non Perfection Bonus) prizes will be doubly confirmed not to have taken multiple Skip Weeks.

PLAYOFF PICKS GAME

I’ll again be hosting a Playoff Picks Game this year with slightly different rules. Per the usual, there is no Entry Fee and anyone who participated in this game will automatically receive a reminder to make their Picks the first week of the Playoffs.

I’d expect the prizes for that to be at least similar to last year, in terms of what I contribute to the contest.

The rules will also be slightly tweaked so nobody can win it the way I did last year. I knew that such a thing was possible, but who would have thought it would happen the first year of that format? The main tweak will be more tightly restricting the maximum +ODDS that any one line can be for prop bets; whatever I decide will be announced when the game is, so nobody should be surprised when there are no +1000 (or whatever) prop bets.

I’d encourage DrawingDead to come win it for the librarians; as stated, there’s no Entry Fee and players in this game will be specifically invited. Anyone else may join, but I’m probably going to require at least fifty lifetime posts and a Join Date of 9/1/23, or earlier.*

*If you’ve ever played in one of the Picks Games, then you’re exempt from the 50 posts to play rule, even if you didn’t play this season.

The “program” does not track skip weeks.

Quote: unJon

The “program” does not track skip weeks.
link to original post

Thank you!

I just call anything I'm too stupid to understand a, 'Program,' because it makes me feel less stupid. This post will be edited to reflect all Skip Weeks and statuses:

It looks like this INCREDIBLY COMPLEX AND HIGHLY TECHNICAL COMPUTER PROGRAM REQUIRING NO LESS THAN A MASTER'S DEGREE IN COMPUTER SCIENCES TO EVEN BEGIN TO COMPREHEND automatically assigns a 0-0 record for anyone who Skips. This appears to be the case regardless of whether or not they are listed, so that's pretty easy.

Skip Week Record

BillRyan-Skips Week 2, resigns, removed from standings. (My request)
Miplet-Skips Week 3
JML24-Skips Week 6
Scolist-Skips Week 6
DJChaps-Skips Week 7
SOOPOO-Skips Week 8 + 15 Disqualified (Can still play for Perfection Bonuses)
Mission146-Skips Week 9
Rainman-Skips Week 12 & 13 Resigns/Disqualified (Can still play for Perfection Bonuses)
AssWhooperMcDaddy-Skips Week 16
AvianRandy-Skips Week 16

I believe that's accurate. As stated, I'll confirm all non-Perfection bonus prize winners prior to announcing the prizes.

SECOND EDIT: Player list removed; I put it there for my own convenience when I thought I'd have to do this a longer way.

Is it easier to try and pick losers than winners? Is that what I'm doing wrong?

Quote: billryan

Is it easier to try and pick losers than winners? Is that what I'm doing wrong?
link to original post

I actually thought about that, but as I mentioned, I wouldn't have picked the inverse of what I've been picking if I were trying to win. Basically, I'm protecting one of the smaller prizes, so other than a few pure hunches, this is just least effort on Picks that I think superficially look bad.

ADDED: Speaking of hunches, I went 2-1 on those, so maybe my TOTALS strategy is better. I'm not going to go back and manually grade everything, but I did think I at least owed DrawingDead that my actual 'Picks' this week went 2-1 when I was shooting for 0-3. Both of my TOTALS partial strategy Picks lost.

If my eyeballs are correct, with two weeks to go, 17 of the 25 entries are in the running for 'Most Average' award. I know I've been eyeing this prize for weeks.

Greetings!

The Week 17 Lines are as follows:

Lions 5.5 @ Cowboys -5.5 O/U 53.5
Falcons 3 @ Bears -3 O/U 38
Patriots 13.5 @ Bills -13.5 O/U 40.5
Panthers 6.5 @ Jaguars -6.5 O/U 38
Titans 5.5 @ Texans -5.5 O/U 43.5
Saints 2.5 @ Buccaneers -2.5 O/U 43
Cardinals 11 @ Eagles -11 O/U 48.5
Dolphins 3 @ Ravens -3 O/U 47
Raiders 3.5 @ Colts -3.5 O/U 43.5
Rams -5.5 @ Giants 5.5 O/U 44.5
49ers -12.5 @ Commanders 12.5 O/U 50
Steelers 3.5 @ Seahawks -3.5 O/U 41
Chargers 3.5 @ Broncos -3.5 O/U 37.5
Bengals 7 @ Chiefs -7 O/U 44.5
Packers 1.5 @ Vikings -1.5 O/U 46

If you are looking to compare lines for the purposes of making Picks, then going to Miplet's page:

https://miplet.net/newnfl/

Will give you the most up-to-date lines that you can compare to the ones posted below.

Thank you again to Miplet!

PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:

Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: N/A
Week 15: N/A
Week 16: GenWyzgy $50
Week 17: $10 Available

I would also like to thank Gordonm888 and Unjon, once again, for working together on the grading and standings. Grading the Picks is honestly something like 90% of the time spend otherwise.

I guess the Broncos didn’t think they were getting good value out of Wilson, either:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/disaste-russ-wilson-benched-for-season/

Also, everyone seems to be ignoring that the reason for Wilson’s benching is because of an extremely player-friendly contract term.

Note there is a Saturday night game. If you want to take it, send all five picks to Mission before kickoff of that game.

This is interesting:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-breaking-down-russell-wilsons-contract-and-when-the-broncos-can-realistically-get-rid-of-him/

Someone actually did manage to call, well in advance, Wilson being released after this season.

It’s not even 1am yet
https://miplet.net/newnfl/diff.php?week=17&day=28&month=12&year=2023&hour=8

Mission's picks received

Greetings!

The Week 17 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Chargers UNDER 37.5
Bills -13.5
Bills UNDER 40.5
49ers OVER 50
Saints +2.5

Wizard:
Lions +5.5
Falcons +3
Patriots +13.5-CONFIDENCE
Panthers +6.5
Titans +5.5

Vegasbrent:
Bills -13.5-confidence
Commanders +12.5
Raiders +3.5
Buccaneers -2.5
Broncos -3.5

Joeman:
49ers UNDER 50
Chargers +3.5
Ravens -3
Bengals +7
Eagles -11 -confidence

SOOPOO:
Patriots +13.5 CONFIDENCE
Commanders +12.5
Packers + 1.5
Raiders +3.5
Rams -5.5

IndyJeffrey:
Patriots 13.5
Jaguars -6.5
Texans -5.5
Dolphins 3 - CONFIDENCE
Raiders 3.5

Johnzimbo:
Lions under 53
Bears under 38
Bills under 40.5
Colts under 43.5
Rams under 44.5

JohnnyQ:
Bills -13.5
Eagles -11
Dolphins 3
49ers -12.5 Confidence
Packers 1.5

nunbeater:
Lions +5.5
Lions UNDER 53.5 -Confidence
Eagles -11
49ers -12.5
Vikings -1.5

Odiousgambit:
Lions Under 53.5
Panthers Under 38
Saints Under 43
Giants 5.5 Over 44.5
Packers Under 46

DJChaps:
Lions UNDER 53.5
Panthers UNDER 38
Rams -5.5 Confidence
Texans -5.5
49ers -12.5

jml24:
Bills -13.5-Confidence
Buccaneers -2.5
Seahawks -3.5
Chargers 3.5
Bengals 7

Gordonm888:
Cowboys -5.5
Bears -3 Confidence
49ers -12.5
Broncos -3.5
Vikings -1.5

ncfatcat:
Falcons UNDER 38
Panthers +6.5
Titans UNDER 43.5
Ravens -3
Raiders 3.5

AVIANRANDY:
Panthers +6.5
Ravens -3 Confidence
Buccaneers -2.5
Titans +5.5
Chargers +3.5

Asswhoopermcdaddy:
Patriots 13.5
Patriots Over 40.5 Confidence
Eagles -11
Buccaneers -2.5
Rams -5.5

unJon:
Panthers +6.5
Panthers UNDER 38
Titans +5.5
Colts UNDER 43.5
Packers UNDER 46 - confidence

FourFiveFace:
Bears -3
Panthers +6.5
Titans +5.5-Confidence
49ers -12.5
Vikings -1.5

JStephe8WVU:
Bills -13.5
Seahawks Under 41
Rams -5.5
Buccaneers-2.5
Jaguars -6.5

GenWyzgy:
Bears -3
Buccaneers -2.5
Ravens -3 Confidence
Seahawks -3.5
Packers 1.5

PlayYourCardsRight:
Bears -3 CONFIDENCE
Texans -5.5
Colts -3.
49ers -12.5
Vikings -1.5

scolist:
Jaguars -6.5
Broncos -3.5
Vikings -1.5
Buccaneers -2.5 Confidence
Eagles under 48.5

Sparty10k:
Panthers +6.5
Saints over 43-confidence
Ravens -3
49ers -12.5
Packers +1.5

miplet:
Rams -5.5
Panthers 6.5
Titans 5.5
Seahawks -3.5-confidence
Packers 1.5

PERFECTION BONUS TRACKER:

Week 1: N/A
Week 2: GenWyzgy ($20)
Week 3: N/A
Week 4 N/A
Week 5: N/A
Week 6: DJChaps ($40)
Week 7: $10 Vegas Brent ($10)
Week 8: N/A
Week 9: DJChaps ($20)
Week 10: N/A
Week 11: UnJon ($20)
Week 12: N/A
Week 13: N/A
Week 14: N/A
Week 15: N/A
Week 16: GenWyzgy $50
Week 17: $10 Available

Week 17 Picks Summary

Game	Away	Home	Over	Under
Lions 5.5 @ Cowboys -5.5 O/U 53.5	2	1	0	5
Falcons 3 @ Bears -3 O/U 38	1	6	0	2
Patriots 13.5 @ Bills -13.5 O/U 40.5	5	7	0	2
Panthers 6.5 @ Jaguars -6.5 O/U 38	6	3	0	3
Titans 5.5 @ Texans -5.5 O/U 43.5	5	3	0	1
Saints 2.5 @ Buccaneers -2.5 O/U 43	1	6	2	1
Cardinals 11 @ Eagles -11 O/U 48.5	0	4	0	1
Dolphins 3 @ Ravens -3 O/U 47	3	5	0	0
Raiders 3.5 @ Colts -3.5 O/U 43.5	4	1	0	2
Rams -5.5 @ Giants 5.5 O/U 44.5	5	0	1	1
49Ers -12.5 @ Commanders 12.5 O/U 50	8	2	1	1
Steelers 3.5 @ Seahawks -3.5 O/U 41	0	4	0	1
Chargers 3.5 @ Broncos -3.5 O/U 37.5	2	3	0	1
Bengals 7 @ Chiefs -7 O/U 44.5	2	0	0	0
Packers 1.5 @ Vikings -1.5 O/U 46	5	5	0	3

Most popular picks: 49ers and Bills

I notice that I am the only contestant to already have a losing pick (I picked Cowboys -5.5 on the Cowboys/Lions game.) Geez

4 overs and 24 unders.

picking the under on the Lions game this week was the easiest confident pick I made all season for sure

After early Sunday games, it appears to me that no one can win the Perfection Bonus this week. The only contestant with a perfect record so far is odiousgambit with 4-0, but odious made no confidence pick, so he can't finish better than 5-0.