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odiousgambit
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December 13th, 2023 at 5:07:52 AM permalink
why are the Devils favored over the Bruins tonight? Last reports have goalies mismatched , Swayman vs Vanecek. Maybe somebody knows something i don't ... other than the Bruins have slipped from winning 9/10 games recently and a couple of guys out

I had to put some money on the Bruins, moneyline and +1.5 puckline both.

That means you should do the opposite LOL
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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December 13th, 2023 at 6:47:33 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

why are the Devils favored over the Bruins tonight? Last reports have goalies mismatched , Swayman vs Vanecek. Maybe somebody knows something i don't ... other than the Bruins have slipped from winning 9/10 games recently and a couple of guys out

I had to put some money on the Bruins, moneyline and +1.5 puckline both.

That means you should do the opposite LOL
link to original post



Two new injuries. McAvoy is a top D. Zacha a center. Devils home. So the Bruins are ever so slight underdogs. I’ll bet with you. Go Bruins!
SOOPOO
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December 13th, 2023 at 7:13:28 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: odiousgambit

why are the Devils favored over the Bruins tonight? Last reports have goalies mismatched , Swayman vs Vanecek. Maybe somebody knows something i don't ... other than the Bruins have slipped from winning 9/10 games recently and a couple of guys out

I had to put some money on the Bruins, moneyline and +1.5 puckline both.

That means you should do the opposite LOL
link to original post



Two new injuries. McAvoy is a top D. Zacha a center. Devils home. So the Bruins are ever so slight underdogs. I’ll bet with you. Go Bruins!
link to original post



I did bet on the Bruins…. then watched…. Announcers pointed out Devils are ‘different team’ now that their captain, Hischier, is playing. 4-7, without him, 6-2 with him. Now 7-2….

So not sure what happened with FD yesterday when limited to $20. Got $50 on +EV bet today. So plus $100 today.
odiousgambit
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December 14th, 2023 at 4:59:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I did bet on the Bruins…. then watched…. Announcers pointed out Devils are ‘different team’ now that their captain, Hischier, is playing. 4-7, without him, 6-2 with him. Now 7-2….

So not sure what happened with FD yesterday when limited to $20. Got $50 on +EV bet today. So plus $100 today.
link to original post

If Devils can get Vanecek to play like he did last night from here forward, that will get them going for sure then

the Devils seemed to have better legs by 3rd period

oddsmaker respect earned again, but I can't say I liked the other side of the betting at -150 or so if I remember it right.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2023 at 1:22:54 PM permalink
BetRivers gave me an extra 50% profit boost for $25 bet. Worth around $10-$15. To make up for inconvenience of their outage.

Antetokounmpo and Embiid and Doncic had HUGE last games. Jokic got kicked out before halftime. I expect Jokic to have BIG game tonight.

I’m probably a square…. but I love the Raiders over the Chargers tonight. Chargers have been shit all year, and now take away Herbert AND Allen. So expect them to run more and use ‘safe’ passes. So also have Ekeler over run and receiving totals.
Mental
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December 14th, 2023 at 1:38:50 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

BetRivers gave me an extra 50% profit boost for $25 bet. Worth around $10-$15. To make up for inconvenience of their outage.

Antetokounmpo and Embiid and Doncic had HUGE last games. Jokic got kicked out before halftime. I expect Jokic to have BIG game tonight.

I’m probably a square…. but I love the Raiders over the Chargers tonight. Chargers have been shit all year, and now take away Herbert AND Allen. So expect them to run more and use ‘safe’ passes. So also have Ekeler over run and receiving totals.
link to original post

Rivers boosted this prop from +175 to +200:
Austin Ekeler to have a 15+ Yard Rush vs. Raiders

This seems +EV? By comparison, Ekeler longest rush over 11.5 yards is -120 / under 11.5 is -109
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2023 at 1:56:42 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: SOOPOO

BetRivers gave me an extra 50% profit boost for $25 bet. Worth around $10-$15. To make up for inconvenience of their outage.

Antetokounmpo and Embiid and Doncic had HUGE last games. Jokic got kicked out before halftime. I expect Jokic to have BIG game tonight.

I’m probably a square…. but I love the Raiders over the Chargers tonight. Chargers have been shit all year, and now take away Herbert AND Allen. So expect them to run more and use ‘safe’ passes. So also have Ekeler over run and receiving totals.
link to original post

Rivers boosted this prop from +175 to +200:
Austin Ekeler to have a 15+ Yard Rush vs. Raiders

This seems +EV? By comparison, Ekeler longest rush over 11.5 yards is -120 / under 11.5 is -109
link to original post



I agreed. Got that bet in. I think with two loser QBs playing just more rushing opportunities.

I need to pay more attention……. I was high on Raiders….. not aware their star RB (Jacobs) is out….. luckily I don’t do this for a living…..
SOOPOO
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December 14th, 2023 at 8:07:26 PM permalink
The perils of gambling. Nailed it on big night by Jokic. 26/14/9 after 3rd quarter. I just need him to get 29 for the parlay. But he won’t play in 4th quarter due to blowout.

Ekeler also a bad bet. He seems to be in an equal 3 man rotation getting carries. Only 5 so far. But MGM Lions boost hits at least. He needed 3 receptions which he got combined with Adams over yards and Raiders win. Unless Raiders blow 50 point lead late…..
AZDuffman
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December 15th, 2023 at 2:41:00 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

BetRivers gave me an extra 50% profit boost for $25 bet. Worth around $10-$15. To make up for inconvenience of their outage.

Antetokounmpo and Embiid and Doncic had HUGE last games. Jokic got kicked out before halftime. I expect Jokic to have BIG game tonight.

I’m probably a square…. but I love the Raiders over the Chargers tonight. Chargers have been shit all year, and now take away Herbert AND Allen. So expect them to run more and use ‘safe’ passes. So also have Ekeler over run and receiving totals.
link to original post



Hope you parlayed it with the over....
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
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December 15th, 2023 at 6:34:24 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

BetRivers gave me an extra 50% profit boost for $25 bet. Worth around $10-$15. To make up for inconvenience of their outage.

Antetokounmpo and Embiid and Doncic had HUGE last games. Jokic got kicked out before halftime. I expect Jokic to have BIG game tonight.

I’m probably a square…. but I love the Raiders over the Chargers tonight. Chargers have been shit all year, and now take away Herbert AND Allen. So expect them to run more and use ‘safe’ passes. So also have Ekeler over run and receiving totals.
link to original post



Hope you parlayed it with the over....
link to original post



I parlayed it with 1st half Raiders under 41.5 at -100000. Just missed…..

I have a bunch of parlays that started with a Raiders win. So all live going to the Saturday NFL games. Lost a bunch of the Ekeler bets.

But seriously….. Raiders were shutout last week, and put up 42 first half….. how do you make sense of this?
unJon
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December 15th, 2023 at 6:38:08 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

BetRivers gave me an extra 50% profit boost for $25 bet. Worth around $10-$15. To make up for inconvenience of their outage.

Antetokounmpo and Embiid and Doncic had HUGE last games. Jokic got kicked out before halftime. I expect Jokic to have BIG game tonight.

I’m probably a square…. but I love the Raiders over the Chargers tonight. Chargers have been shit all year, and now take away Herbert AND Allen. So expect them to run more and use ‘safe’ passes. So also have Ekeler over run and receiving totals.
link to original post



Hope you parlayed it with the over....
link to original post



I parlayed it with 1st half Raiders under 41.5 at -100000. Just missed…..

I have a bunch of parlays that started with a Raiders win. So all live going to the Saturday NFL games. Lost a bunch of the Ekeler bets.

But seriously….. Raiders were shutout last week, and put up 42 first half….. how do you make sense of this?
link to original post



As the great man once said: NFL, Never Figure League
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
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December 15th, 2023 at 7:07:26 AM permalink
I think the most interesting thing of that Raiders game was that they scored 63 points and only had 379 yards.
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lilredrooster
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December 15th, 2023 at 10:20:15 AM permalink
Quote: unJon


As the great man once said: NFL, Never Figure League


it looks like you have it figured out pretty well
you're 54-29 - 65.1% winners in the contest
it's not a great # of picks - 83 - but I believe it's pretty rare for a capper to have that high a % on that many picks
I posted about your high % before and you said it was just luck
now, I'm not so sure about that
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
unJon
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December 15th, 2023 at 10:57:05 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: unJon


As the great man once said: NFL, Never Figure League


it looks like you have it figured out pretty well
you're 54-29 - 65.1% winners in the contest
it's not a great # of picks - 83 - but I believe it's pretty rare for a capper to have that high a % on that many picks
I posted about your high % before and you said it was just luck
now, I'm not so sure about that
.
link to original post



It’s exactly two things:

1) picking games on a Sunday morning based on lines that Mission posts Thursday or Friday

2) luck
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AxelWolf
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December 15th, 2023 at 11:49:11 PM permalink
There's a new Max original show called, Bookie.
I put it in the category of a Comedy with some drama.
It's about a seasoned bookie who seems to be struggling due to the rise of legalized sports betting.

I'm not saying it's good or terrible. In my opinion, it's just okay, it just is what it is.

I put it on while I'm actually betting on sports and doing work online. It's entertaining enough and I don't feel like I'll miss anything while being distracted with other things.

I'm sure somebody will come along and tell us how inaccurate it is. :rolleyes:
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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December 16th, 2023 at 8:52:39 AM permalink
I was watching one of those betting shows. Mentioned that Ohio has multiple key players not playing due to silly ‘being in the transfer portal’. So I be started a bunch of parlays with opponent, Georgia Southern. Georgia Southern already has ZERO points and it’s near halftime…. Oh well….

I have Bournemouth to draw at significant + odds. It is 1-1 with about 20 minutes to go. Player just collapses on field. The game is now ‘suspended’. I am not sure if that means til later today, til tomorrow, til never….?

Newcastle /Fulham. Two approximately even teams. Fulham player around 20 minutes in gets red card. That means they play a man short for the entire rest of the game. Was able to get $$ in on Newcastle around -200. Seemed like it should have been shorter than -500. It’s now 3-0 Newcastle.
DRich
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December 16th, 2023 at 11:27:29 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I was watching one of those betting shows. Mentioned that Ohio has multiple key players not playing due to silly ‘being in the transfer portal’. So I be started a bunch of parlays with opponent, Georgia Southern. Georgia Southern already has ZERO points and it’s near halftime…. Oh well….



The good news is that they have scored 21 in the second half.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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December 16th, 2023 at 4:49:18 PM permalink
The Griz Bison game lived up to expectations. It was a two point spread and the Griz won by two in overtime when the Bison try a half back pass from the three yard line to tie it up. The pass was intercepted.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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December 17th, 2023 at 7:46:54 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

The Griz Bison game lived up to expectations. It was a two point spread and the Griz won by two in overtime when the Bison try a half back pass from the three yard line to tie it up. The pass was intercepted.
link to original post



Does the game end on the interception, or does the defender have an opportunity to advance the ball and possibly score? Could the defender theoretically fumble, and the other team recover and score? In a HS game, I saw a player intercept and return it over 100 yards for a touchdown, which drove the crowd crazy, and then angry when it was ruled the defender couldn't advance the ball after the interception.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Mental
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December 17th, 2023 at 8:03:30 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

The Griz Bison game lived up to expectations. It was a two point spread and the Griz won by two in overtime when the Bison try a half back pass from the three yard line to tie it up. The pass was intercepted.
link to original post



Does the game end on the interception, or does the defender have an opportunity to advance the ball and possibly score? Could the defender theoretically fumble, and the other team recover and score? In a HS game, I saw a player intercept and return it over 100 yards for a touchdown, which drove the crowd crazy, and then angry when it was ruled the defender couldn't advance the ball after the interception.
link to original post

The defense can usually score two points on a return. The rules depend on the league:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-point_conversion
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
billryan
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December 17th, 2023 at 8:21:36 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

The Griz Bison game lived up to expectations. It was a two point spread and the Griz won by two in overtime when the Bison try a half back pass from the three yard line to tie it up. The pass was intercepted.
link to original post



Does the game end on the interception, or does the defender have an opportunity to advance the ball and possibly score? Could the defender theoretically fumble, and the other team recover and score? In a HS game, I saw a player intercept and return it over 100 yards for a touchdown, which drove the crowd crazy, and then angry when it was ruled the defender couldn't advance the ball after the interception.
link to original post

The defense can usually score two points on a return. The rules depend on the league:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-point_conversion
link to original post



Normally.yes.
I'm asking about in overtime.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
odiousgambit
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December 17th, 2023 at 9:08:02 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

The Griz Bison game lived up to expectations. It was a two point spread and the Griz won by two in overtime when the Bison try a half back pass from the three yard line to tie it up. The pass was intercepted.
link to original post



Does the game end on the interception, or does the defender have an opportunity to advance the ball and possibly score? Could the defender theoretically fumble, and the other team recover and score? In a HS game, I saw a player intercept and return it over 100 yards for a touchdown, which drove the crowd crazy, and then angry when it was ruled the defender couldn't advance the ball after the interception.
link to original post

Do you mean to ask if the play was over, not 'was the game over?' And was it actually a fumble recovery that just looked like an interception? that can happen in the backfield. In HS, some areas, the rules could be different for a fumble

However, in the pros or HS either one, if it was truly an interception, I can't imagine any league, anywhere, saying the play is over on an interception at that instant
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mental
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December 17th, 2023 at 11:13:41 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Do you mean to ask if the play was over, not 'was the game over?' And was it actually a fumble recovery that just looked like an interception? that can happen in the backfield. In HS, some areas, the rules could be different for a fumble

However, in the pros or HS either one, if it was truly an interception, I can't imagine any league, anywhere, saying the play is over on an interception at that instant
link to original post

If a team score a game winning touchdown in OT, the game is over and the extra point attempt is not permitted even if it changes the winner versus spread. Right? The outcome of the game is not on the line, so avoidance of injuries dictates that a meaningless extra point is not attempted.

In this particular case, the game should not be ended by the turnover because the ball could be turned over again and the offensive team could succeed on the attempt. Therefore, ruling the ball dead could alter the outcome of the game.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
SOOPOO
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December 17th, 2023 at 11:32:38 AM permalink
Interesting. Dolphins were 8 point favorite over the Jets. Wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) on pace for best receiving season in history is ruled out pre game. Line moves…. ONE POINT. NFL…. QBs matter. A lot. Other players matter. Very little.

I’ll summarize my good football picks from yesterday. Done.
mcallister3200
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December 17th, 2023 at 11:41:19 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Interesting. Dolphins were 8 point favorite over the Jets. Wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) on pace for best receiving season in history is ruled out pre game. Line moves…. ONE POINT. NFL…. QBs matter. A lot. Other players matter. Very little.

I’ll summarize my good football picks from yesterday. Done.
link to original post



I have to believe it would have moved 1.5-2.5 if one point didn't happen to be the 3 or 7 though. Think risk management wise they'd rather cut off nose to spite face rather than cross a 3 or 7 and open themselves up to getting middled.
DRich
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December 17th, 2023 at 11:42:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Interesting. Dolphins were 8 point favorite over the Jets. Wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) on pace for best receiving season in history is ruled out pre game. Line moves…. ONE POINT. NFL…. QBs matter. A lot. Other players matter. Very little.

I’ll summarize my good football picks from yesterday. Done.
link to original post



It is almost unheard of for a NFL player other than QB to move the line by more than two points.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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December 17th, 2023 at 11:46:34 AM permalink
Quote: billryan


Does the game end on the interception, or does the defender have an opportunity to advance the ball and possibly score? Could the defender theoretically fumble, and the other team recover and score? In a HS game, I saw a player intercept and return it over 100 yards for a touchdown, which drove the crowd crazy, and then angry when it was ruled the defender couldn't advance the ball after the interception.



To the best of my knowledge the play is still live and the player could have returned it. In this case the player intercepted it in the end zone and realized he had just won the game. He didn't go down with the ball and I was worried he may just drop the ball and let the Bison recover it in the end zone. I don't believe was was ever tackled or went down but I think he eventually went out of bounds when his team mobbed him,
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
odiousgambit
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December 17th, 2023 at 11:53:01 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: odiousgambit

Do you mean to ask if the play was over, not 'was the game over?' And was it actually a fumble recovery that just looked like an interception? that can happen in the backfield. In HS, some areas, the rules could be different for a fumble

However, in the pros or HS either one, if it was truly an interception, I can't imagine any league, anywhere, saying the play is over on an interception at that instant
link to original post

If a team score a game winning touchdown in OT, the game is over and the extra point attempt is not permitted even if it changes the winner versus spread. Right? The outcome of the game is not on the line, so avoidance of injuries dictates that a meaningless extra point is not attempted.

In this particular case, the game should not be ended by the turnover because the ball could be turned over again and the offensive team could succeed on the attempt. Therefore, ruling the ball dead could alter the outcome of the game.
link to original post

I was only replying to the situation he related about the High School game he saw. I lost track of what was going on otherwise, so some of my answer may not have made sense.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
gordonm888
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December 17th, 2023 at 10:34:15 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Interesting. Dolphins were 8 point favorite over the Jets. Wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) on pace for best receiving season in history is ruled out pre game. Line moves…. ONE POINT. NFL…. QBs matter. A lot. Other players matter. Very little.

I’ll summarize my good football picks from yesterday. Done.
link to original post



It is almost unheard of for a NFL player other than QB to move the line by more than two points.
link to original post



I agree with you, but I think its wrong for a very small number of players who have a large impact, currently:

Tyreek Hill
T.J. Watt
Both Bosa Brothers
Miles Garrett
Christian McCaffrey (and maybe Deebo Samuel)
Max Crosby?

probably others you guys can suggest
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mcallister3200
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December 18th, 2023 at 4:32:39 AM permalink
I vaguely remember, but pretty confident it happened, a line move of multiple points for Aaron Donald missing a game within the last few seasons. Complete outlier for his position.
lilredrooster
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December 18th, 2023 at 9:51:12 AM permalink
.
Mission on Dec. 5 in the linked thread said he was trying to lose by taking the over on big numbers - I think without handicapping - he stated he had lost interest in the games

I consider Mission to be a very smart guy and the comment piqued my interest

I unscientifically assigned 46 and over as a high NFL total although it's not very high - maybe I should have assigned a higher total - anyway

then using covers.com designation of the total (which is I believe the most common total or an average of the most common totals) I tracked all of this season so far where the total was 46 or more and all of the previous 2 seasons

I wanted to see how the unders would do

I came up with the unders winning 138-102_____________57.5% winners_____________maybe not conclusive but pretty interesting - to me anyway


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/38480-2023-wov-picks-game-discussion-thread/8/


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
unJon
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December 18th, 2023 at 10:05:00 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

.
Mission on Dec. 5 in the linked thread said he was trying to lose by taking the over on big numbers - I think without handicapping - he stated he had lost interest in the games

I consider Mission to be a very smart guy and the comment piqued my interest

I unscientifically assigned 46 and over as a high NFL total although it's not very high - maybe I should have assigned a higher total - anyway

then using covers.com designation of the total I tracked all of this season so far where the total was 46 or more and all of the previous 2 seasons

I wanted to see how the unders would do

I came up with the unders winning 138-102_____________57.5% winners_____________maybe not conclusive but pretty interesting - to me anyway


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/38480-2023-wov-picks-game-discussion-thread/8/


.
link to original post



Interesting. If you don’t mind looking, see what happens in your data if you draw the line at a total of 51.5. I view 51 as the last “key” number on a total.

Anecdotally, I think unders on low totals have been hitting at a larger than expected clip (small sample size for sure and maybe cognitive bias as I haven’t tracked it, it’s just an impression). I would consider a low total to be 36.5 and under (37 is another “key” total number).
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lilredrooster
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December 18th, 2023 at 12:56:32 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: lilredrooster

.
Mission on Dec. 5 in the linked thread said he was trying to lose by taking the over on big numbers - I think without handicapping - he stated he had lost interest in the games

I consider Mission to be a very smart guy and the comment piqued my interest

I unscientifically assigned 46 and over as a high NFL total although it's not very high - maybe I should have assigned a higher total - anyway

then using covers.com designation of the total I tracked all of this season so far where the total was 46 or more and all of the previous 2 seasons

I wanted to see how the unders would do

I came up with the unders winning 138-102_____________57.5% winners_____________maybe not conclusive but pretty interesting - to me anyway


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/38480-2023-wov-picks-game-discussion-thread/8/


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Interesting. If you don’t mind looking, see what happens in your data if you draw the line at a total of 51.5. I view 51 as the last “key” number on a total.


i started to do that - but there were too few picks
so I changed it to 50 or more
for the same period I came up with the unders winning 66-44__________60% winners

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2023 at 3:35:46 PM permalink
Vegas is smarter than ‘us’. Bills were 2.5 point faves over Cowboys despite Cowboys on amazing offensive streak 5 previous games. Bills middling at 7-6. Bills destroyed Cowboys.

Josh Allen played a very good game despite finishing 7-15 for less than 100 yards. One of my Bills to win parlays lost on Allen passing yards of ‘only’ over 225.

I had one 50% parlay boost on $50 bet on BR. Not sure why…. They all seem to be capped at $25. So had wifey pick against the spread. She picked Chiefs -8 over Pats (Pats suck!) and 49ers -11.5 over Cards (49ers are great!). Chiefs down 3 in second quarter…. 49ers down early…. No worries!

In a game only DRich watched (I admit I watched a little) I had W Kentucky in the ‘I can’t remember the name of it’ Bowl. Down 28-7 at halftime I wasn’t confident…..They won in OT!
DRich
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December 18th, 2023 at 3:57:42 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Interesting. Dolphins were 8 point favorite over the Jets. Wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) on pace for best receiving season in history is ruled out pre game. Line moves…. ONE POINT. NFL…. QBs matter. A lot. Other players matter. Very little.

I’ll summarize my good football picks from yesterday. Done.
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It is almost unheard of for a NFL player other than QB to move the line by more than two points.
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I agree with you, but I think its wrong for a very small number of players who have a large impact, currently:

Tyreek Hill
T.J. Watt
Both Bosa Brothers
Miles Garrett
Christian McCaffrey (and maybe Deebo Samuel)
Max Crosby?

probably others you guys can suggest
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I don't think any defenders alone would move the line more than 2 points.

Tyreek Hill this year would be the only one who might move it two points (non QB)..
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
DRich
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December 18th, 2023 at 4:03:50 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



In a game only DRich watched (I admit I watched a little) I had W Kentucky in the ‘I can’t remember the name of it’ Bowl. Down 28-7 at halftime I wasn’t confident…..They won in OT!



I believe that was the Famous Toast Bowl. Quite a 4th quarter as Veltkamp led them from 21 points down to tie it and go to overtime for a win.

I don't understand people not wanting to watch teams that they are not familiar with. These bowl games offer some very competitive matchups. The bowl games on Saturday were so much better than the NFL games on Sunday.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2023 at 4:19:53 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO



In a game only DRich watched (I admit I watched a little) I had W Kentucky in the ‘I can’t remember the name of it’ Bowl. Down 28-7 at halftime I wasn’t confident…..They won in OT!



I believe that was the Famous Toast Bowl. Quite a 4th quarter as Veltkamp led them from 21 points down to tie it and go to overtime for a win.

I don't understand people not wanting to watch teams that they are not familiar with. These bowl games offer some very competitive matchups. The bowl games on Saturday were so much better than the NFL games on Sunday.
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That’s what you like. I (often) prefer watching for the amazing athletic feats more than the ‘competition’. There are some junior high school soccer games that are more ‘competitive’ than the Bills Cowboys game was. I’m not watching JHS soccer.

And it’s the ‘Famous Toastery Bowl’. Don’t you know anything?
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December 18th, 2023 at 4:22:55 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


That’s what you like. I (often) prefer watching for the amazing athletic feats more than the ‘competition’. There are some junior high school soccer games that are more ‘competitive’ than the Bills Cowboys game was. I’m not watching JHS soccer.

And it’s the ‘Famous Toastery Bowl’. Don’t you know anything?



When I first moved to Vegas I did not know a single person. A regular form of entertainment for me was to go to the local park and watch Little League baseball games. In retrospect, it was probably creepy to have this single guy with no ties to the team at so many games.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2023 at 8:07:03 PM permalink
Just got +650 on Seahawks and -600 on Eagles. Free money. Not a lot…..
odiousgambit
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December 19th, 2023 at 2:29:04 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Just got +650 on Seahawks and -600 on Eagles. Free money. Not a lot…..
link to original post

you need to explain this

in the actual outcome, assuming you bet equal amounts on either side, let's say one dollar, then you won $6.50 minus the dollar on the other, $5.50

if the Eagles had won, then you would have lost a dollar minus the 17 cents or so the winning side got. Why would you bet both sides?

I think it's possible the oddsmaker wouldn't set up +650 vs -600 , they don't like it tight like that, but this is just not telling me to bet both sides

you don't mean you got +650 and +600 on both sides due to catching live play ?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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December 19th, 2023 at 3:21:29 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Just got +650 on Seahawks and -600 on Eagles. Free money. Not a lot…..
link to original post

you need to explain this

in the actual outcome, assuming you bet equal amounts on either side, let's say one dollar, then you won $6.50 minus the dollar on the other, $5.50

if the Eagles had won, then you would have lost a dollar minus the 17 cents or so the winning side got. Why would you bet both sides?

I think it's possible the oddsmaker wouldn't set up +650 vs -600 , they don't like it tight like that, but this is just not telling me to bet both sides

you don't mean you got +650 and +600 on both sides due to catching live play ?
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Bet $1 on Seahawks. Bet $6.42 on Eagles.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
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December 19th, 2023 at 3:38:53 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Just got +650 on Seahawks and -600 on Eagles. Free money. Not a lot…..
link to original post

you need to explain this

in the actual outcome, assuming you bet equal amounts on either side, let's say one dollar, then you won $6.50 minus the dollar on the other, $5.50

if the Eagles had won, then you would have lost a dollar minus the 17 cents or so the winning side got. Why would you bet both sides?

I think it's possible the oddsmaker wouldn't set up +650 vs -600 , they don't like it tight like that, but this is just not telling me to bet both sides

you don't mean you got +650 and +600 on both sides due to catching live play ?
link to original post



Bet $1 on Seahawks. Bet $6.42 on Eagles.
link to original post

does that work only because it's tight like that? if so that explains why you don't see it tight on purpose
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
unJon
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December 19th, 2023 at 3:45:22 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: unJon

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

Just got +650 on Seahawks and -600 on Eagles. Free money. Not a lot…..
link to original post

you need to explain this

in the actual outcome, assuming you bet equal amounts on either side, let's say one dollar, then you won $6.50 minus the dollar on the other, $5.50

if the Eagles had won, then you would have lost a dollar minus the 17 cents or so the winning side got. Why would you bet both sides?

I think it's possible the oddsmaker wouldn't set up +650 vs -600 , they don't like it tight like that, but this is just not telling me to bet both sides

you don't mean you got +650 and +600 on both sides due to catching live play ?
link to original post



Bet $1 on Seahawks. Bet $6.42 on Eagles.
link to original post

does that work only because it's tight like that? if so that explains why you don't see it tight on purpose
link to original post



It’s not tight it’s upside down. Tight would be -650 and +600. Upside down is +650 and -600. No book would do the latter as it would lose money. SOOPOO found the two lines at two different sites.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
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December 19th, 2023 at 3:57:16 AM permalink
thanks. It would have taken forever for me to figure that out
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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December 19th, 2023 at 7:31:05 AM permalink
I started out looking just to bet Seahawks as a hedge. I had a parlay that would come in if Eagles covered -3. So 4 of the sites were (around) -600 on the Eagles and +425 on the Seahawks. But BetRivers still had Seahawks + 650. So a ‘mistake’ that they hadn’t changed yet to reflect the last play in the game.

I literally made $7. I was able to only bet the +650 once as it had changed the second time I tried. A ‘sharp’ bettor would have understood that the fair line was around -500/+500, and only bet on the Seahawks at that point. But as I’ve mentioned many times, I don’t try and squeeze every dollar. I ENJOY taking free money, even if I give up EV. And remember, whichever site I bet the -600 on sees that clearly -EV bet I made. (Maybe?) it acts as a cover play.
PenguinsOfPit
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December 19th, 2023 at 8:25:57 PM permalink
This is the worst line in history I’m quite sure
kdaee44
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December 20th, 2023 at 4:48:46 AM permalink
BetMGM offered a money line on Georgia vs. Kent State, where a $1000 bet on Georgia to win only yielded $10 due to their heavy favoritism check actors news on <a href="Despite a 44.5-point spread, the potential payout on correlated parlays, as promoted by ksdjdj, was either disallowed or less favorable.
SOOPOO
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December 20th, 2023 at 5:14:44 AM permalink
Quote: PenguinsOfPit

This is the worst line in history I’m quite sure
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What do you think it should be? They play Spurs soon and might be favorites!
They probably are getting some action on it. It would be a fun $1 bet.
PenguinsOfPit
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December 20th, 2023 at 9:59:06 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: PenguinsOfPit

This is the worst line in history I’m quite sure
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What do you think it should be? They play Spurs soon and might be favorites!
They probably are getting some action on it. It would be a fun $1 bet.
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I mean they would need to lose another 55 in a row. That’s unheard of. They have some talented guys. A more reasonable line would be 10000 to 1 and that might be conservative. 55 in a row!
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December 20th, 2023 at 10:29:05 AM permalink
So I’ve been ‘coin flipping’ on even money type bets (generally -110). Usually 2, sometimes 3, to use a boost. Today I put more work in. Let’s say spread is - or + 5.5 points on the site I am using. I now go to the other sites. If it’s -6 on the other sites, I take the favorite at -5.5. If it’s -5 there, I take the dog at +5.5. I have no reason to believe one site has better information than the other. I ‘think’ this will add a percent or two to my EV using these boosts. I found one this morning I got a whole extra point. At -110 each way not worth it on its own to ‘middle’, but since I ‘have’ to bet on something…. why not?

Two FD boosts last night +EV. Morant 20/Lillard 25 +130.
Curry, Tatum, Booker 25 +200. First hit easily…. Second Curry Booker over…. Tatum twisted ankle 1st Q, came back but too little, too late. That’s gambling….
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