FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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August 9th, 2017 at 10:18:08 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

-Leadbelly

Always a colorful character. Prison songs and folk songs. Wonder if his vocals are in the public domain? Anyone want to try to get rich?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 9th, 2017 at 4:02:29 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I honestly think every bet against a bridge jumper is a good bet.



i don't think i would agree with that statement because in betting against bridge jumpers, the many times the bridge jumpers don't want to jump you will often get a shrunken payout because there is such a little amount of money to split. in the race i linked here, betting against songbird in the show pool the #1 horse finished second at odds of 7/1 and paid only $2.10 to show. it's a small field but you would normally expect a horse at 7/1 to pay at least even money to show. in the 2nd link in betting against california chrome betting the #4 horse to show he was 26/1 to win. and he paid only $2.80 to show. west virginia may be a greatly different story because of the higher mandatory payouts.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=PRX&raceDate=09/24/2016&cy=USA&rn=10

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=10/01/2016&cy=USA&rn=7
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 9, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 9th, 2017 at 6:04:02 PM permalink
I think I'm going to go to the Pennsylvania derby. It's 9/23rd correct, at Parx?

Someone recommended a horse site today called winningponies.com for links to racing news. He mentioned Classic Empire is headed there, to the Pennsylvania derby.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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August 10th, 2017 at 5:01:36 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

i don't think i would agree with that statement because in betting against bridge jumpers, the many times the bridge jumpers don't want to jump you will often get a shrunken payout because there is such a little amount of money to split. in the race i linked here, betting against songbird in the show pool the #1 horse finished second at odds of 7/1 and paid only $2.10 to show. it's a small field but you would normally expect a horse at 7/1 to pay at least even money to show. in the 2nd link in betting against california chrome betting the #4 horse to show he was 26/1 to win. and he paid only $2.80 to show. west virginia may be a greatly different story because of the higher mandatory payouts.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=PRX&raceDate=09/24/2016&cy=USA&rn=10

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SA&raceDate=10/01/2016&cy=USA&rn=7



Not every result will make you money. But if you do it every time, you'll be up overall. The horse will probably hit the board 9 out of 10 times.

I'd say the average bridge jumper race has 7 horses. So if you're betting every other horse to show, you're betting $12 a race. When the horse hits the board, you're probably going to end up losing $7. But, one out of 10 times, you're probably going to be ending up winning $100 on average.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 10th, 2017 at 8:13:23 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

But, one out of 10 times, you're probably going to be ending up winning $100 on average.




that's a very interesting comment you made. I cannot dispute it because I have not been tracking the results of bridge jumpers' horses. but I will say that if that is your experience it is very surprising to me. I would have guessed that the jumpers' horses scored much more often than that. if your sample size is large enough to indicate blanket correctness then that is one of the VERY VERY VERY VERY FEW legitimate systems for making money at the track. also, tracks are known for sometimes refusing show bets in small fields which suggests that their experience has not been good with bridge jumpers even though they get a windfall when the horse fails. and express bet and twinspires will sometimes terminate the account of bridge jumpers who have won. here is the link to a 2011 DRF story:



http://www.drf.com/news/xpressbet-policy-prompts-review-california


this is kind of interesting. in googling around i found a twitter feed re bridge jumper alerts. lol

https://twitter.com/bridgejumper?lang=en
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 10, 2017
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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August 10th, 2017 at 6:46:04 PM permalink
R Sunday Surprise, CC's full sister, won on the turf tonight at Del Mar.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
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August 10th, 2017 at 11:13:54 PM permalink
Never, ever. Bridge jump against Hotspur harriat at the mountain....you're welcome
get second you pig
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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August 11th, 2017 at 2:30:20 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

that's a very interesting comment you made. I cannot dispute it because I have not been tracking the results of bridge jumpers' horses. but I will say that if that is your experience it is very surprising to me. I would have guessed that the jumpers' horses scored much more often than that. if your sample size is large enough to indicate blanket correctness then that is one of the VERY VERY VERY VERY FEW legitimate systems for making money at the track. also, tracks are known for sometimes refusing show bets in small fields which suggests that their experience has not been good with bridge jumpers even though they get a windfall when the horse fails. and express bet and twinspires will sometimes terminate the account of bridge jumpers who have won. here is the link to a 2011 DRF story:



http://www.drf.com/news/xpressbet-policy-prompts-review-california


this is kind of interesting. in googling around i found a twitter feed re bridge jumper alerts. lol

https://twitter.com/bridgejumper?lang=en



The jumpers need to hit 96 out of 100 to make money. It's just not realistic. If Arrogate doesn't show, no horse is safe.

As for xpress and twinspires terminating accounts of bridge jump bettors, doesn't affect me, because I'm betting against them.

You can actually guarantee yourself a profit if the show percentage on a certain horse is big enough. Songbird and Arrogate were recent examples. You're getting 1-2% return, but it's a guarantee. Most people don't have enough liquid cash to do it though.

It is the only system for actually making money at the track that I know of, but a legitimate opportunity probably happens once a day (max) on average across the country on a weekend. A lot of times you'll see 60-70% of show money bet on a horse, but it's not enough. If it's at that rate you need to handicap the race.

It needs to get in the 85-90% range to make it worth it for me to bet automatically on.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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August 11th, 2017 at 2:31:37 AM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

Never, ever. Bridge jump against Hotspur harriat at the mountain....you're welcome



What about Huntress Helena?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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August 11th, 2017 at 6:38:22 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

The horse will probably hit the board 9 out of 10 times.



another way to look at it using that stat is that the bridge jumper in WVA is almost breaking even doing no handicapping because of the higher payout. with a little bit of handicapping; selecting only la creme de la creme; he should be able to turn a small profit. very small. unless he's willing to bet very big. and if he bets very big there will still be a bridge sometime in his future that he will be thinking about.
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.

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